This is a short update on the situation in Grindavík. This article is written on 20. November 2023 at 22:22 UTC.
There’s a storm in Iceland until 23. November 2023. When the wind is going to start die down again. This means that Icelandic Met Office is going to record fewer earthquakes because strong ocean waves and wind.
- There has not been much change since yesterday. This is normal.
- Inflation in Svartsengi is up to 30mm/day and this is a increase, since inflation used to be around 15mm/day.
- Since Friday 10. November 2023 the inflation in Svartsengi has been around 150mm over the last 11 day time period.
- It took 17 days from start on October 25 of the magma inflow into the Svartsengi dyke until it broke on 10. November and the created the Sundhnúkar to Grindavík dyke.
- It is a question what happens when next 17 days come up. Because whatever the hold is for the magma in the dyke in Svartsengi is going to break it is going to start the process as happened on 10. November 2023 and possibly into the current dyke, or possibly create a new dyke next to the current one (its a possibility, not a large one, but it is there).
There has not been a lot of information released today and I don’t see a lot on seismometers and other instruments around Grindavík town currently.
This type of quiet period before an eruption are common. Why is not well understood. Eruption might not happen, but it is not likely that nothing is going to happen in this. Both is magma too close too the surface and there’s too much inflow of magma into the dyke at Svartsengi. This is how I see the current situation.
If anything happens. I’ll post update soon as I can.