This is a short update. Information here is going to get outdated quickly.
An earthquake swarm started at 21:05 UTC in the dyke area that formed on 10. November 2023. This earthquake swarm is ongoing and seems to be connected to when the eruption fissure expands south towards Grindavík town. The eruption started at 22:17 UTC. There’s a lot of dangerous gas pollution from this eruption. Do not get close to this eruption. This is not a small tourist friendly eruption.
I’ll post new article when I know more in next few hours.
This is a short article about the situation in Grindavík. Information here might go outdated quickly without warning.
Sorry for the late update. I was updating my computer and its been more of a problem than I expected. Since I build my own computers, rather than buying already assembled computer.
Overview of the situation in Grindavík
Inflow into the dyke seems to have stopped one to two days ago. This means that it has started to cool down, since no inflow of fresh magma means it starts to form into rock. This is going to take years and in some areas decades cool all the way through. This also means that the rift valley is no longer moving as much as it was doing and in some areas has stopped completely. There is a crust instability in and around Grindavík town because of the rift valley, but this instability is now lower compared to first few days after 10. November. This might continue for years, even after all eruption activity stops few hundred years into the future.
Inflation has now reached almost the same level as 10. November, with only 50mm to go until the same level is reached. This inflation seems to be creating cracks in the ground around Svartsengi power plant. But the news was not clear on exact area of the formation of those cracks in the ground. Svartsengi, Grindavík and the area around the dyke continues to be a danger zone as defined by Icelandic Met Office.
The original image can be found here on Icelandic Met Office website.
This is not over and it is impossible to know when next sequence of events starts in Svartsengi and there is going to be little to no warning when it starts next. Icelandic Met Office has sad that at most there is going to be a two hour warning before an eruption starts, but it might even be shorter time. Making staying in Grindavík and nearby area all hours of the day a dangerous thing to do.
This is the last update until something happens in Grindavík.
This is a short update and information here can go outdated quickly and without warning.
There has not a lot been happening in last few days. Here is a overview for the last few days.
Inflation continues in Svartsengi. Over the 90 day GPS data period. The inflation has reached the zero line. That means the inflation is now at the same level as it was before 25. October 2023. It still has about 100mm to go before it reaches 10. November levels and the sill broke and the magma dyke happened. But it is important that the GPS data from 2020 shows that Svartsengi lowered to 140mm below the January 2020 starting point with the GPS data.
The GPS data from January 2020 for Svartsengi show that total inflation in the area is around 230 to 250mm. This information can be viewed here (this is a none https link, so it might require an exception in Google Chrome or just use Mozilla Firefox). There’s a lot of GPS data on this site. Some of it show short term GPS data that are from last 12 hours daily update. Looking for the correct data image might take some time.
Inflation might need to reach 10. November levels before anything happens again. The dyke even on 10. November seems to have changed how things happen in Svartsengi so it is impossible to be sure what happens next.
While the magma collecting phase is ongoing. Things are going to be quiet with the earthquake activity in this area.
The rift valley, best I can see, continues to change and sink and rise. Resulting in ongoing damage to Grindavík town.
There’s less news about this at currently. That gives me less information on what is going on.
Next update should be by Friday 8. December, unless something happens.
Information here might go outdated quickly and without warning. This article is written on 30. November 2023 at 23:44 UTC.
There isn’t much change happening at the moment. People are now allowed to be in Grindavík between 07:00 to 19:00 I think the time frame is. Earthquake activity is at minimum currently.
Deepest hole that has been discovered so far is 25,7 meters deep. It is deeper, but at 25 meters the ground water level starts and hides the actual depth of this crack. Rúv news about this found here with pictures and videos in Icelandic.
New cracks and the ground continues to sink and move in most of areas of Grindavík. This is resulting in more damage to houses and streets in Grindavík town.
The harbour area in Grindavík has lowered 30 cm to 40 cm. That was the news two days ago. I think the harbour area continues to sink. This might be a signs of future problems if the ocean manages to flow into this area.
Svartsengi volcano continues to inflate at the rate from 10mm to 40mm a day. The last 24 hour inflation was around 40mm. Earlier the inflation had just been 10mm a day. Suggesting a increased flow of magma into Svartsengi volcano.
Something might start to happen around or after 9. December when the sill in Svartsengi is expected to reach the same pressure it was on 10. November when it broke the first time and emptied and created the dyke that formed under Grindavík and the nearby area.
This is a short update for Grindavík and nearby area on 28. November 2023. This article is written at 23:22 UTC. This is a short update and information here can go outdated quickly and without warning.
Last few days have been quiet with little or few earthquakes. There have been earthquake swarm activity at times, suggesting that magma is trying to push at faster rate into the crust at Sundhnúkagígar and Sundhnúkar mountain. I don’t know what the current rate of magma inflow is.
Magma continues to flow into the dyke. I don’t know how fast that rate is.
The dyke is wider than originally thought. This means it cools down more slowly. The dyke is widest around Sundhnúkar and Sundhnúkargígar area.
Eruption can start without warning in Sundhnúkar or Sundhnúkargígar and that area.
New cracks continue to form in Grindavík, along with sink holes and other issues that is creating.
Inflation at Svartsengi is around 10mm/day and up to 40mm/day. Currently, the inflation has slowed down to 10mm/day. This can change without warning.
Top of Keilir mountain has moved according to the news. I don’t know how much. But this is a displacement.
Rocks with the size of mobile homes have moved and rolled down from mountains.
Cracks are forming in a wide area around the dyke according to the news. Making it dangerous to travel in the area around Grindavík because of this new cracks in the ground.
The event in Grindavík and nearby area is not over. It is ongoing, this is just a quiet time period that is currently happening. This quiet time period is going to happen frequently in the Reykjanes volcano system. I don’t know why that is the case, this is the reality of what is going on.
Article updated at 23:56. I forgot to add few things.
This is a short update on the situation in Grindavík and nearby area on 24. November 2023. This article is written at 18:47 UTC.
Information in this article can go outdated without warning and quickly if something happens.
This activity has slowed down for now. This means I am going to be posting update less here, unless something changes and that can happen without warning.
There is movements on cracks and new holes and cracks are opening up or appearing as the ground collapses and exposes the fissure.
Earthquake activity has reached a low point. This might be just for a short period of time.
The inflation in Svartsengi is today around 140 to 160mm from 10. November 2023. The inflation each day is around 30 to 40mm.
The area that is inflating in Svartsengi is larger now compared to the area that inflated before 10. November 2023. This has created a uncertainty in the GPS data as I understand the situation. The rift valley is also creating issues in the GPS data as parts of him continue to sink and are going to continue to sink and lower nearby area with it. How much that is difficult to know.
The event that happened on 10. November 2023 was the quickest event to happen in recorded history of Icelandic Met Office. According to their report and the news.
It is my view that the current low is just going to last for few more days, at most few weeks because of the ongoing inflation in Svartsengi. It is my view that it is going to take around 30 days until next dyke activity happens, that is around 10. December when that might happen. But the situation is changing quickly and impossible to know for sure how it develops in next few days to weeks.
If anything happens. I’ll post update soon as I can do so.
This is a short update. Information there might go outdated quickly and without warning. This article is written on Wednesday 22. November 2023 at 21:32 UTC.
There’s little news to report at this moment. Mostly because of bad weather. The progress of the dyke has also stalled from earlier, or this might be it for now. It is difficult be sure currently.
The inflation at Svartsengi (upwards movement) stopped in the last 24 hours. This either means this series of events is stopping for now or something major is about to happen. I am not sure. Risk of this being a error are small, but this might be interference from weather (rain, snow).
The air code for Reykjanes volcano has been downgraded to yellow.
The situation in Grindavík and in Sundhnúkagígar and the nearby area can still change without much warning. Since the ground is very fractured there and is not going to be much resistance to any magma movements in the near future.
If anything more happens. I’ll update soon as I can.
This is a short update on the situation in Grindavík. This article is written on 20. November 2023 at 22:22 UTC.
There’s a storm in Iceland until 23. November 2023. When the wind is going to start die down again. This means that Icelandic Met Office is going to record fewer earthquakes because strong ocean waves and wind.
There has not been much change since yesterday. This is normal.
Inflation in Svartsengi is up to 30mm/day and this is a increase, since inflation used to be around 15mm/day.
Since Friday 10. November 2023 the inflation in Svartsengi has been around 150mm over the last 11 day time period.
It took 17 days from start on October 25 of the magma inflow into the Svartsengi dyke until it broke on 10. November and the created the Sundhnúkar to Grindavík dyke.
It is a question what happens when next 17 days come up. Because whatever the hold is for the magma in the dyke in Svartsengi is going to break it is going to start the process as happened on 10. November 2023 and possibly into the current dyke, or possibly create a new dyke next to the current one (its a possibility, not a large one, but it is there).
There has not been a lot of information released today and I don’t see a lot on seismometers and other instruments around Grindavík town currently.
This type of quiet period before an eruption are common. Why is not well understood. Eruption might not happen, but it is not likely that nothing is going to happen in this. Both is magma too close too the surface and there’s too much inflow of magma into the dyke at Svartsengi. This is how I see the current situation.
If anything happens. I’ll post update soon as I can.
This is a short update on the activity in Grindavík on 19. November 2023. Information here might go out of date without warning. This article is written at 22:28 UTC.
This morning an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,7 took place in Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano. This earthquake was felt in Reykjavík area. This earthquake happens because of all the displacement that is now happening next to Grindavík town.
This is also an update for 18. November 2023. I was trying to get a little time off from writing.
Little has changed in last two days. Parts of Grindavík town continue to sink or rise depending on location. Most measured movements is around 25 cm last I did see. If that is correct today I am not sure.
Inflation in Svartsengi is around 130mm since Friday 10. November 2023 according to GPS measurements and satellite measurements.
Inflow of magma into Svartsengi is estimated to be around 50m3/sec when this article is written according to the news. Inflow of magma into the dyke was 75m3/sec or more few days ago. That has possibly changed to a lower number in last few days.
Earthquake activity remains about the same in the dyke. Around 800 to 2000 earthquakes a day along the 15 km long dyke.
It is impossible to know when this area is going to erupt. It can take up to three to four weeks to happen. It might be a shorter time period, it is impossible to know what happens when it comes to volcanoes and dyke activity.
If anything happens. I’ll post an update quickly as I can.
This is a short update on the situation in Grindavík on 17. November 2023. Information here can go outdated quickly and without warning.
Grindavík town continues to sink as the rift valley continues to move. The speed of sinking has slowed a little according to the news today.
Earthquake activity has slowed down in last few hours (this is written around 22:51 UTC). What that means is unclear.
Some houses in Grindavík town have been completely destroyed. Iceland has a natural disaster fund for this type of situation and that is going to cover the owners loss according to the news.
It took me a week. But it seems that this dyke intrusion under Grindavík town is because of the magma sill (dyke) under Svartsengi. That area has inflated around 110mm in a week. That is a inflation of 15mm/day based on my best calculations. That is a lot of inflation, since before 10. November the inflow of magma into Svartsengi was at most 8m3/sec according to measurements of Icelandic Met Office.
The sill in Svartsengi created a lateral dyke in Sundhnúkar and nearby areas. When the pressure in the sill is high enough again it is going to push the magma into the dyke at Sundhnúkar again with the same force as it did before. How long that takes I don’t know. Last time this was from 25. October to 10. November. That’s seventeen days, but there was a lot of deeper sills in Svartsengi and its impossible to know much, if anything flowed form them into the dyke. This is my personal view, it might be wrong. But this is what I am reading from the data.
Risk of the eruption remains high because there’s a ongoing inflation at Svartsengi. When a eruption starts is impossible to know.
If anything happens. I’ll post update soon as I can.
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