Posted on by Jón Frímann

Friday update on Bárðarbunga volcano 26-September-2014

This is the Friday 26-September-2014 update on Bárðarbunga volcano. This information is going to get outdated quickly.

Current status in Bárðarbunga volcano at 20:31 UTC

  • Largest earthquake today had the magnitude 5,2, it happened at 16:49 UTC. Second largest earthquake today took place at 18:54 UTC and had the magnitude of 4,3. There have so far been fewer larger earthquakes today than in last days.
  • The caldera dropped 30cm in the magnitude 5,2 earthquake. The caldera continues to drop around 50cm/day according to GPS measurements. Total caldera drop is now around 29 meters.
  • Smaller earthquakes have been taking place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This means the drop is continuing during those earthquakes.
  • Magma continues to flow into Bárðarbunga volcano around the same rate as before. This can be seen on GPS data on nearby GPS monitoring stations. For GPS information please check University of Iceland GPS information page here.
  • Bad sandstorm was in Holuhraun today. It was so bad that it was only possible to see 50 – 100 meters in front of people according to Rúv news earlier today.
  • The eruption in Holuhraun continues in the same manner today as yesterday. The lava field is now larger than 40 square kilometres. What the exact size is I don’t know since it is not known today due to weather.
  • Earthquake activity continues under the dyke and that suggests the pressure is increasing in it.
  • Currently there is no eruption under the glacier. If it was it would be visible on SIL stations around Vatnajökull glacier.
  • Nothing more has happened in Bárðarbunga volcano today far as I know. That might change without warning.
  • Storms are expected to take place in Iceland all weekend. There is going to be around three or four storms taking place this weekend with strong winds up to 20m/s and it can go up to 40m/s in wind gusts. This is going to effect SIL stations and my geophones as the storms pass over parts of Iceland.

Current status Saturday 27-September-2014 at 20:30 UTC

  • No major change has taken place today in the eruption in Holuhraun. There is also no sign that is ending. Most of the eruption takes place in one crater at the moment. New fissures might open up without warning in the area where the dyke is located.
  • Bárðarbunga caldera continues to drop around 50cm/day.
  • Largest earthquake today so far is a magnitude 5,2 that took place at 19:31 UTC. Second largest earthquake today was at 02:00 and had the magnitude of 5,0.
  • Due to snowstorm there is almost no visibility to the eruption area in Holuhraun. For the people in the field the visibility today was reported to be 50 to 100 meters.
  • There has been a lot of smaller earthquakes taking place in Bárðarbunga volcano. Some of those earthquakes are taking place due to caldera subsiding. Some of those earthquakes are taking place because the magma inside Bárðarbunga volcano is looking for a new pathway up the surface. It either has not found it or does not have the pressure yet to go up the crust yet.
  • There is less activity today in the dyke. There is however worrying earthquake activity in the dyke at the start of Dyngjujökull glacier. It might mean that magma is trying to get up to the surface. There already have been eruptions under the glacier in this area without any earthquake activity before they started. All of those eruptions lasted for a short period of time.
  • Nothing else is to report so far today (27-September-2014).

Update Sunday 28-September-2014 at 17:17 UTC

  • Largest earthquake today took place at 12:34 UTC. Other earthquakes have been smaller today.
  • Bárðarbunga caldera has dropped 7,4 meter since 12-September-2014 according to GPS measurements in the centre of the caldera. That GPS data can be found here.
  • The lava field is now 44,5 square kilometres wide. It is now larger than Mývatn (around 40 square kilometres wide) for comparison.
  • Harmonic tremor suggest that pressure is increasing in the Bárðarbungu volcano magma chamber. It drops once the magma finds way out, then it starts building up again.
  • No other information have been released today. Other activity is the same as for the past few days.

Storm notice!

Three bad storms are expected in Iceland in next few days. In parts of Iceland wind is expected to go up to 50m/s in wind gusts. This is going to effect all earthquake recording and monitoring of Bárðarbunga volcano.

Next update

Next update is going to be on Monday 28-September-2014. I wish everyone a good weekend.

Article updated at 20:31 UTC on 27-September-2014
Article updated at 17:17 UTC on 28-September-2014

447 Replies to “Friday update on Bárðarbunga volcano 26-September-2014”

    1. Yes, that was what I had had in mind too. It also involves some soil / mud (in the beginning), but is mostly water and nothing as solid as a mud slide / lahar.
      Thank you all for your patience.

      hen

      2. Very few people outside Iceland realise the destructive power of these glacial floods. They sweep away anything in their path. A mark of respect must be shown to the ever resourceful Icelandic people who immediately rebuild.

      3. Yes, thank you, Scots John, I am aware of the icebergs, as well as the courage and resilience of the Icelandic people facing the various challenges the power of nature puts to them. Few in number, great of heart.

        hen

  3. @Cheryl, Thanks for the interesting link. I am happy that the very rough and basic calculation is somewhere in the right ballpark because someone asked the interesting question as to why the big EQs are rarely more than 5.2 and almost always 5.2. I was looking for a fudge factor of 2 because I read somewhere that that is the amount of potential energy tranfered to seismic vibration, the rest presumably ends up as heat. The factor of 2 that you found is due to the logarithmic scale of EQs. An M6 has shakes of 10 times more amplitude than a M5 which means about 31 times more energy so roughly an increase of 0.2 on the M scale doubles the energy. All I actually need to do is take into account the real slip of 50cm per day rather than 25cm, then I have my doubling.

    1. Because the difference between 5.2 and 5.3 is so big. t is a logarithmic scale. 5.2 (rounded) covers a vast range of strengths.

  4. As the Caldera drop slowly goes on, has anyone seen any recent images from the top of the ice cap showing the depression, the last one I saw was about two weeks ago when it had dropped about 25m

  5. Yes, I asked that question a few days ago and Jon and others said the funding for aerial surveillance had pretty well run out. However, I am surprised that no new overhead images have been provided. Of course, impossible today! However, tourists flights are taking place at enormous cost. It is a pity the companies which operate them do not contribute a percentage of their inflated profits to this cause.

    1. With fuel prices as high as they are now compared to a few years ago, I do not know how you think they make “inflated profits”. I am sure they already pay an awful lot in tax relative to their income. Iceland is a small country with a small population and very limited resources. They have recently secured some EU funding to help with monitoring the volcano and the threat is poses to Europe, but really funds are very tight and even businesses aren’t making huge amounts of profit right now as like most of Europe they’re just climbing out of the depths of a recession & Iceland, like the UK, has massive debts!

      It’s a shame, but it’s a fact of life, if you haven’t got it, you can’t spend it. It’s ignoring that rule that got us all into a recession in the first place.

    2. They got a new grant from EU. I don’t know when they resume normal operations on monitoring Bárðarbunga volcano. For the moment bad weather is preventing any ground and flight monitoring.

  6. They probably have all the data they need for now, people on the ground, and the gps on top of the caldera, so why spend money on flyovers, when there is no dramatic change in the subsidence? It doesn´t make sense to spend money on investigating when you already know. Besides, this process can take years to unfold so they´d rather save the money for later.

    1. I think fly overs would be a good thing to do.

      1) It does not seem that they have all the data. There was eg. this question about lava / crypto domes. There could perhaps be seen some changes on certain points of the glacier rim when some phenomenon like this would be building up.

      2) Would be good to know if there were more cracks (crevasses /seracs) forming within the glacier surface. Just to have a warning sign about major events coming in case of.

      3) Would be interesting to know if (more) cauldrons would be forming within the glacier surface. This could indicate an eruption within the glacier and give warning time re. glacier runs (jökulhlaup).

      1. I believe there’s a certain amount of satellite imagery being supplied to IMO by various agencies, as they have presented a few images with data overlaid on recent satellite photos in the press releases. That might be providing them with a lot of what they need to know about the ice surface.

        But yes, in the current storm there’s not much chance of flying. There were plenty of helicopters up a few days ago though judging from the various videos.

  8. Ice quake vs earthquake. Could the cyclic 5.0 and 5.2 around Bardarbunga caldera be ice quakes?

  10. 2014-09-29
    13:43:04 UTC M5.1 ICELAND
    24min ago Depth:10 Km
    220 km E of Reykjavík, Iceland / pop: 113,906 / local time: 13:43:04.7 2014-09-29

    Seismic activity on the up over last 18 hours. I see the Mila camera operator frantically changing to all live cams on Island looking for any signs of reaction to this large EQ

      3. Southeast side too and relatively far out. Interesting placement.

        It’s equal to 3 M5.2 in energy release, FYI.

  14. Starting to get the bigger quakes at the 5km depth,must be putting at stress on the caldera roof.

  15. Grimsfjall and Vonarskard drum plots showing how wide spread that last EQ was. Tectonic quake definitely not ice quake.

    1. Three storms expected this week. The first one is already here. It´s really fairly typical for this time of year. The wind on top of Vatnajökull is currently around 35-40 m/sec. So expect a lot of wind noise on the drum rolls.

  17. Disco Bunga, “Shake, Shake, Shake”! Wow! A 5.5 right after a 4.4, a 3.9, and a 4.9; some magma must be on the move. Also, these quakes seem to be getting closer to the crustal surface! I am hoping this next event will be a small. I am concerned for the people of Iceland, and the unique wildlife and domestic animals found there. :-/

      1. Lots and lots of pahoehoe lava in Iceland, with and without shield volcanoes, eg. Þingvellir, Mývatn, Reykjanes … 🙂

  19. Bardy sure dirtied that white snow around R2D2!
    I just saw another quake on EMSC just before I came here.
    Lots of em past 3 days.
    No good views of Bardy. It seems to me there is a cam change ?

      1. Yes I agree Mafl we are seeing snow melt, winds are at the moment from a southerly direction, we won’t see any “Mega-Blizzard” till the Low swings the wind to come from an Arctic direction.

  20. Jon, I needed to make some purchases through Amazon, so I went through your link here in US. I signed in and did my business, so I hope you get something from it.

  21. Just looking at Mila 1 and it looks like it has stopped!!!!!! i I expect it’s the weather playing tricks again !!!!!

    1. Could you please refrain from using so many exclamation marks. We understand also without them what you intend to say.

    2. Exclamation marks! what have I done wrong, ! I was thinking that Jon’s site was for like minded people. It is like going back to school again. I will go and sit on the naughty step then Lol.

      3. Sorry, but I (we) was looking at webcam, EQ-Charts, reading and waiting for something happening or changing…so if you use much of these signs, I’m having a little “alarm” in my head, that something really worse is happening. And after a second…hm…the cam has stopped…so…that happened from time to time…
        But if you are the first to see something, that is really exciting, new, important, then wake me up with some exclamation marks 🙂

      4. Yup. “!!!!” can be used for “new fissure, really, I’m sure, not a cloud” and “!!!!!!!!1111111111” can indicate “…and IMO says there’s ash and a glacial flood coming”.

  22. @IngeB [& other expert observers]:

    Is it possible there was a small subglacial eruption around 13:38 (about 5 minutes before the magnitude 5.5?

    The reason I ask is because there are two anomalies on the drumplots (the other at 14:58) that don’t show up on the EQ table.

    Also, Heidarbaer & Kreppuhraun show something similar to a link Jón provided recently. He had a seismogram for Grimsfjall during the Grímsvötn eruption, which he said represented a subglacial eruption.

    His example was much more noticeable, perhaps meaning a more substantial subglacial eruption.

    Just wondering.

    Thx

    1. Disregard the references to Heidarbaer & Kreppuhraun.

      They aren’t anywhere near Bárðarbunga.

  23. I was thinking about when I was walking in mountains that the we would always calculate temperature with the wind also – called the ‘wind chill factor’. So I expect that with the high winds/storms there would also be a problem with ice on GPS cams etc. especially at night.
    Hopefully the storms will pass by soon.

    Ah of course now I look IMO has the charts already 🙂

    http://en.vedur.is/weather/articles/nr/1827

  24. A new interview with volcanologist Ármann Höskuldsson ( http://www.visir.is/25-thusund-skjalftar-sa-naeststaersti-reid-yfir/article/2014140928859 in Icelandic).

    – This eruption is in many ways a very unusual one, not least because there were 248 quakes between magn. 3 and 4, 70 over magn. 4, and 39 over magn. 5 in connection with the eruption.
    – The big quantity of gas and eruption products is also characteristic for it.
    – It is bigger now than eruptions in the 20th and 19th century, only Laki was bigger.
    – No one can say how long it will continue.
    (text)

    In the radio interview he mentioned also that in the beginning, the scientists didn’t reckon with the possibility that the eruption would continue over such a long timespan, but thought that it would be over rather fast in 7-10 days. It’s now a month and still continuing, though at a somewhat reduced output (he compared it to the river Skjálfandafljót, ie. 130 m3/sec.).

    1. The google translate is priceless: “25 thousand earthquakes: The second largest angry” and “”This is much bigger soda than we have seen in both the 19th and 20th centuries.” I believe those giant sodas were banned in New York City for a time.

  25. After the recent subsidence related to the 5.5 EQ I wonder if we will see an associated rebound that has not been uncommon, big drop then a swing upward.

    I wonder what could be causing this, might be a key to what is going on, theories?

    Could it be some sort of isostatic rebound?

    1. If you look at the long graph, you´ll real drops that stay, and fake drops caused by instrument static which bounce back. So each time we´ll have to wait a few hours to see if the drop holds. The last one looks legit.

  26. For those who have not seen this site http://earth.nullschool.net/ it is a wonderful interactive tool for wind direction for anywhere in the world but especially for Iceland at the moment, you get a good idea of this powerful Low pressure system coming in. Just mouse over and move the map to where you want it, you can zoom as well.

  27. I gather that the

    !!!!!WIND!!!!!

    is too strong for overflight pics of the lava flow and river junctures?

    {{BTW, Jon, I ASSUME you got the $30USD/39Euro donation via PayPal? (A different name, of course, D) No biggy but I wouldn’t want it lost in the interwebs.}}

  29. Welllll, David, I confess . . . I delight in the variety of ways folks use in text communications to make-up for the lack of volume & tonal changes, . . . and the lack of facial expressions, raised eyebrows, etc. face to face communications are blessed with.

    And, if it makes sense and is communicative–fine with me–I enjoy the wealth & diversity of communication strategies and styles.

    Besides . . . the volcano is not exactly doing anything but the typical, currently. It’s kind of like standing around the cracker barrel in the old General Store blathering and chatting . . . waiting for something more exciting to happen.

    I guess if one were a Puffin in that wind, it would be exciting enough, however.

    One thing I’ve been curious about but haven’t found anything on . . . HOW, more or less, is the new funding from the European Community going to show up in new equipment for this volcanic area? I ASSUME there will be SOME good result?? Has anyone read of any such?

    Another curiosity I have had recently re the glacial melt river flowing past Holohuran . . . . . when is it likely to freeze this winter–i.e. after what date?

    Another question–it APPEARS that the river flows over a kind of sandy flat river bottom. IF the lava flow extends to the next higher elevation in the land and a lake results–is the lake likely to endure or slowly seep through the sand and then washout an escape route UNDER the lava flow?

    OK. I’ll stop my blathering and go do some errands.

    1. Under the sand are probably older solid lava fields. So I don’t think that it could wash out a pass under the lava. On the other hand in the west of iceland are the Hraunfossa and the water streams through porous lava and on a layer of basaltic lava in the next river:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hraunfossar

    2. BTW: The subsidence of the caldera is not really a normal behaviour of volcanoes during standard eruptions. …

  30. There seems to be two distinct fissure sites now on Milo Cam 1, difficult to see in the mist though, does anyone have any definite information? or is a trick of the visibility

    1. It looks like the crater is growing (or loosing it’s walls) an there is perhaps more than one Lava fountain. So maybe the fissure is widening under the crater…but when I look to older screenshots it’s not bigger…

  31. There is this tiny glowing dot to the left of the radar thingy on cam1. It seems to bright to be the lava front, and it seems to flare up once in a while. A new fissure perhaps?

    2. What you’re seeing to the left of R2D2 is the edge of the lava flow; last night it went much further to the left than it is now, so keep watching!

      1. You can see a change on that one too. The tremor charts can easily be dismissed as due to the storm, though. Does anyone know if weather also affects Iceland’s Continuous GPS stations? Some graphs are showing a jump in deformation, some aren’t, and the ones that do are closer to the rift.

      2. Quite a storm though, I hadn’t looked at mila lately, and now I know what a lava fountain blown sideways looks like. I’ll chalk it up to that, but thought I should mention the change in the graphs anyway.

      1. Looks like the possibility of some deflation going on in the general area but still some inflation going on in the area of Grímsvötn. Seeing what might look like deflation at Hamarinn (HAFS), Vonarskarð (VONC), Dyngjuháls (DYNC) but we’ll need more data to know if it is just noise or a trend.

  33. I am sorry for the late update. I have been dealing with IPv6 network issue today and I am no closer to any type of solution yet. I am going to write a new article soon on what has been happening in Bárðarbunga volcano. Since I an need to clear my head from this IPv6 network problem before I can fix it.

    1. Apologies are not necessary. Those of us with less experience in theory as well as practicalities on the ground are grateful for your work. This is apparently the first event of its kind that has been documented with modern instrumentation. Most of us rely on those with more experience to translate the raw data, but understand that even the most knowledgeable are feeling their way to a certain extent. Take your time and be well.

  34. The lava fountains are particularly spectacular tonight. No higher than on previous occasions, I think–it’s probably the gusts of wind that make the display seem more impressive. Quite a sight, for whatever reason.

  35. Just to put things in perspective. The Earth has on avaerage about 800 M5 earth quakes per year. Bardabunga has had 5% of those in 7-8 weeks

  36. There really has been no slow down in the subsidence on Bardy over the last 18 days. If you look at the longer graph in this GPS link at the bottom… it covers roughly 17.9 days with 8 meters in total drop, which averages out to 44cm (+/- 6cm) per day. Obvisously this is a visual observation, not actual numbers off the graph. The angle of the curve has neither increased or decreased, with only some sagging in the middle of the graph.

  37. Keith…cool link on the Jet stream (the national hurricane site I have followed for years is now boring compared to Iceland)
    Mafl….Earth has its own Facebook page (I didn’t know that)
    Da Xin…Puffins have a tough enough life as it is! ( I dont remember a scene in “Happy Feet involving volcanoes?)
    Wial….there are many new visitors to Jon’s blog recently. Tell us more about the brick wall hitting you during an earthquake.
    IngeB…I picture you as Anna from Abba (the blonde one) AKA “Linkwoman” (and be honest, you do post a few links)

    Who would of thought we would all witness a lava fountain leaning 45 degrees. And whenever Baroarbunga calms itself, I hope to see us all talk about our experiences.

    Iceland…the land of Fire & Ice!

  38. Thanks James.

    Out of the 17 5.X quakes . . .

    9 times there was a rather immediate drop . . . if I’m reading it right.

    Interesting.

  41. The plume visible in Mila_1 in the major vent brightens periodically by a factor of 2-3 and occasionally much more (subjective estimate).
    There also was a large low intensity flash shooting upwards, likely some explosive venting of gas.

    This no longer looks like a steady state flow.
    The fissure alongside the main vent is erupting at some length.

    I feel that this will get much bigger soon.

    This looks like the activity is increasing

    1. On Mila_1 I can see black clouds in the foreground clearly move slowly (second by second).
      The eruption cloud shows no visible movement and changes shape only over long periods of time (minute by minute). Since the activity is very violent, it must be much farther away than the clouds in the foreground.

      From this I can guess that the lava fountain is at least the height of the foreground clouds. Now we don’t know anything about the size and height of these but it is more likely to be hundreds of meters than tens of meters.

      In this case the eruption would have intensified considerably.
      I have seen the view from this camera before and the plume does look much bigger now. So unless they moved the camera closer, activity is much increased.

      Even as I write the rift is showing increased activity out to about 15 times the height of the main fountain, ie. at least an entire mile and I can now see two bright spots forming visibly substantially closer to the camera which are isolated and so do not seem to stem from a lava flow.

      Maybe a second rift is forming.

  42. Hmmmm SuzyQ & James . . .

    is there a reasonable way to identify whether the 5.x quakes occurred mostly or only on the North or South rim?

    Interesting observation SuzyQ.

    1. If you look at the earthquake table it gives you the location of each earthquake. I haven’t quantified it but as they have occurred there has seemed to be an immediate drop more often when location given as north. Would have to do a proper statistical analysis to prove this….

  43. The fissure is possibly starting to draw on more evolved magma from the caldera chamber,leading to more explosive trend.This eruption could be a marker for the state of the caldera?

  44. to make things a little bit clear.
    Gos in icelandic is not only lava it is also soft drinks with “bubbles” as Coca Cola, Pepsi, Fanta etc.
    Thats the reason for google to translate into “soda”

  45. Last EQ was a 4.1 at 0.9km depth. Like so many quakes in the last few days it is very shallow. I’m I the only one, or are any of you other folks getting a bit nervous?

    2. An eruption at the edge of the caldera is still one of IMO’s top three scenarios. So Bardarbunga itself erupting is somewhere between plausible and likely, per official.

      So if you think it is looking like it wants to erupt, you are not at all out on a limb.

      1. It likely is. There would be no surface indication of an eruption at the deepest part of the caldera. It is 700 meters deep, deepest close to one edge, and the glacier is another 150 meters over the caldera rim.

        Just so people are clear on the word “caldera”, that is not the entire volcano or the entire glacier. The caldera is only the center crater of the volcano. It is quite big, about 10km across, but the volcano itself is larger and the glacier is even larger still. The Vatnajökull glacier covers some 8,100 km2 and its average depth is 400 meters according to Wikipedia but it is more than twice that deep over the caldera.

        An eruption at the floor of the caldera under over 800 meters of water and ice would not present any indication at the surface aside from some possible subsidence due to melting ice. There would be no steam, there would be no phreatic explosions, it would be just like an eruption 800 meters deep in the sea.

    3. Would it not be inevitable that deeper quakes and subsidence are accompanied by more shallow quakes? I imagine the rock layers higher up will follow what is happening below and since subsidence will never be evenly distributed, new stresses will form resulting in more quakes. It would be interesting to see if there are any patterns that would tell more about what is happening…

  47. Also, my view of the current eruption from the web cam. seems about the same as it has been. However, the fountains do look very bright and may be taller than usual. I see lots of lava running in about the same areas as it has been running in the last few days. Looks like nothing new at this point from cam #1.

  48. I keep rewatching the video of quakes at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7s9LIiQ2vXI for clues and keep wondering if we have reached a steady state condition? It appears that the magma seems to have pushed from Bardabunga orthogonal to the rift fissue until reaching it, then you can see what appears to be probing of the magmatic pressure, as it gradually opens the fissue, ending up in the Holuraun area.

    The mag 5+ quakes are not good, it only took one of those and Mt St Helens went off in a catastrophic Plinian eruption which very few expected, but I admit that Goat Rocks expanding some 180 meters+ should have given everyone notice.

    What can be the possible effects of those mag 5+ quakes recurring? I think this is a pertinant question now. I like the fissue eruption in the sense that it is rather tame, but the continuing quakes at the summit could change the whole picture.

    Anyone else share the same concern(s)?

  50. THX TONS for the update, Jon.

    I think many to most of us have noticed the two massive compilation of quakes into two “WALLS” somewhat angled from one another in this 3D illustration/simulation.

    Is it accepted to be the case . . . or logical . . . or probable that

    those two ‘walls’ of quakes are in (or between the walls of) a fracture/fault in the underlying soil/rock?

    Along with that curiosity . . . where the series of quakes seems to hit a block preventing them from going off along that line further NE. What are the speculations as to what would be stopping them?

    Is it assumed that lava has been stopped from going NE at that point, too?

    Yet, if as has been stated, much of the lava is coming from very deep . . . it seems to me that such a blockage might be unlikely to go AS DEEP as the lava is originating from. IF that’s a plausible assumption . . . would it be logical that eventually the lava originating very deeply might just find a way under or around that blockage and continue a string of quakes further NE?

    I suppose an eruption of Katja (sp?) might involve lava originating from very deep and beyond that blockage, too.

    Just recreationally pondering as an ignorant layman. Interested in others’ thoughts on such things.

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