This evening on 22-February 2025 at 21:04 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw5,2 took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This has been followed by several smaller earthquakes and this earthquake swarm seems to be ongoing.
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
This earthquake activity is possibly magma trying to find a path to the surface. If it is going to be successful now is another story. It is possible for the magma to fail this. It is difficult to know how this is going to evolve and progress in Bárðarbunga volcano. However, it is clear that for now, no eruption is imminent.
Today (14-January 2025) at 06:08 UTC an dyke intrusion started in Bárðarbunga volcano. This dyke intrusion lasted until around 09:00 UTC and might still not be over, even if the activity has stopped at the writing of this article. Largest earthquakes had the magnitude of Mw5,2 (USGS, EMSC). More than a dozen earthquakes with magnitude from Mw3,0 to Mw5,0 took place in this earthquake swarm.
The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
The main activity was in the western part of the caldera. According to the experts, this earthquake swarm looks close to what happened in Bárðarbunga volcano before it erupted in Gjálp (Wikipedia, Icelandic) in the year 1996. Then a earthquake swarm started like this, slowed down for few days before it increased again and the eruption happened. It is unclear what direction the dyke might move to, but most likely is south-west in the direction of Torfajökull volcano and Katla volcano. If that happens, such dyke activity might get those volcanoes upset or start and eruption in them.
I am going to post update as needed for Bárðarbunga volcano as this activity continues.
During the night of 8-December 2024 at 01:49 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw5,2 took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is a inflation related earthquake, as Bárðarbunga volcano continues to inflate from the collapse during the 2014 and 2015 eruption.
The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
A lot of smaller earthquakes also happened before and after the main earthquake. This is not unusual, there are just more of them now. Why that happened is not clear. This is an ongoing earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga and is going last for the next 30 to 90 years in the longest. Depending on how this evolve in Bárðarbunga volcano.
Today (06-October-2024) at 17:56 UTC an earthquake with magnitude Mw4,5 to Mw5,1 took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. Icelandic Met Office reported this earthquake as Mw4,5 and EMSC reported this earthquake as Mw5,0. USGS reported this earthquake as Mw5,1. Yesterday (05-October 2024) two magnitude Mw3,7 and Mw3,9 earthquakes took place in Bárðarbunga volcano.
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbungna volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
This earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano happens because of inflation that is now happening in Bárðarbunga volcano. This inflation is going to take decades to complete and in that time, this type of earthquake activity is going to be frequent with several magnitude Mw5,0 earthquake over the year, but fewer as the time goes on from last eruption (ended in February 2015). After 10 to 30 years, there is only going to be one magnitude Mw5,0 earthquake larger every few years.
Today (3-September 2024) at 16:31 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw5,0 took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This was followed by few smaller earthquakes and there has been increased minor earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano in recent days.
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
This size of earthquake is going to happen in Bárðarbunga volcano at least once to twice a year for the next 40 to 60 years. I am not expecting an eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano until at least 2120 and no earlier then the year 2090. Until then, its going to be decades of earthquake activity like this one.
This morning on 21. April 2024 at 06:37 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw5,4 took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. Largest aftershock had a magnitude of Mw3,0. There’s no earthquake swarm going on at the time of writing of this article. This earthquake was felt in some parts of Iceland but was possibly detected over most of Iceland in a quiet locations.
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
This is the strongest earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano since the eruption in Holuhraun in the year 2014 to 2015. This earthquake activity is a long term signal that inflation in Bárðarbunga volcano has reached a new level. Eruption is not going to happen or is extremely unlikely to happen following this earthquake or in next few years. Shortest time between eruptions in Bárðarbunga volcano is around 10 years.
This is how I recorded the earthquake on my own seismometer.
The magnitude Mw5,4 earthquake as it was recorded on my own seismometer.
Today (18. March 2024) at 00:45 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw4,7 (EMSC Information) took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. Icelandic Met Office had this magnitude at Mw4,4.
Earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
This earthquake is part of the inflation that is happening in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is going to continue to happen every few months for the next few years to decades until the magma chamber in Bárðarbunga volcano in it is fully inflated.
Yesterday (24. October 2023) at 22:19 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw4,9 took place in Bárðarbunga volcano north eastern part of the volcano. This time it was not in the caldera as is the most common location for this earthquake activity.
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
This is a inflation connected earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is the second earthquake this year that reaches magnitude of Mw4,9. There is no risk for an eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano at current time.
Yesterday (14. October 2023) an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,6 took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is one of many inflation earthquakes that have taken place in Bárðarbunga volcano since end of the eruption in 2015. This earthquake activity is going to continue for the next 50 to 100 years if nothing changes, but with rate of earthquakes getting lower as the time passes.
The activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
This earthquake activity is normal and won’t result in a eruption. This type of earthquake or larger happen currently every two to three months in Bárðarbunga volcano.
Today (4. October 2023) at 16:11 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw4,7 (Icelandic Met Office) or Mw5,0 (EMSC) took place in Bárðarbunga volcano.
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
This is normal inflation earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano and large earthquakes like this happen every few months. This means that Bárðarbunga volcano continues to inflate after the eruption in 2014 to 2015. This earthquake activity is not going to result in a eruption and won’t result in a eruption for a long time.
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