Posted on by Jón Frímann

What to expect from Bárðarbunga volcano

I am writing this now, since I might not have time to do so on Monday. Updates are going to continue to go here until Monday. Unless something major happens.

The collapse of Bárðarbunga volcano

The collapse of Bárðarbunga volcano has already started. The caldera collapse in Bárðarbunga volcano started on 16-August-2014 and has been going on since then. Here is what I am expecting from the caldera collapse once it reaches its peak.

  • There are going to be earthquakes in the range of 5,5 and up to 6,7. Maybe larger if the crust can handle it.
  • Glacier flood are going to go south-west and north (Húsavík area) and possibly in other directions. I am expecting damage to hydrothermal plants in the pathway of the floods. How much damage there is going to be depends on the magnitude of the flood and the path it takes.
  • I am expecting long periods of no power in parts of Iceland once the flood has passed. I am also expecting lack of communications in large areas of Iceland. This is why Rúv has been telling people to get long-wave radios for the past few days. Usage of mobile network is also going to be unreliable in large parts of Iceland once the collapse starts full force in Bárðarbunga volcano. Due to damage that glacier floods are going to create.
  • I am expecting an ash cloud that might go up to 20 km or higher up in the atmosphere. It is however impossible to know for sure what happens until this starts.
  • It is difficult to know fore sure how much drop is going to take place, but it can be up to many hundreds of meters.
  • I fear that north slope of Bárðarbunga might collapse forward once this starts. Earthquakes in the area give clues about weakness forming there.

Bárðarbunga volcano is 2009 meters high above the ocean. This means there is a lot of material that is going to blow outwards once the collapse starts full force. This is might be one of largest eruptions in Iceland since it got populated more than one thousands years ago. I am hoping that the picture that I am drawing up is not as bad the reality once this starts. I am also hoping that no loss of life is going to happen. I am hoping for the best in this case, but the clues that I am getting are no good at all.

369 Replies to “What to expect from Bárðarbunga volcano”

    1. I am sure I saw it do that yesterday but then it carried on downwards – I think it is one of the quirks of the 180 min moving average .. we shall see. Was going for a walk but tempted to carry on watching!

      1. As Lady Bunion has said it is a 3 hour moving average so we should wait a few more hours to see where it works out moving averages can be hard to read at the start as they change. But I can see what you mean.

    2. The plot updates every 5 minutes not scientific but last 2 show inflation if its a moving average that increase is significant so hope ita not.

      3. Jay what I have noticed on the chart is it has remained static since about 04.30 this morning with very little change. There was a quake of 4 at 06.54 at only .5km. What is interesting is it started to increase from about midnight with a drop at about .04.30 and has remained static with very little change, and as you have said there might be some inflation.

      4. It is showing a drop now as ypu said since this morning very static interest to see if we finish with a small inflation event or a quake followed by another fall.

      5. The plot shows the water height in one of two subglacial (and volcanic) lakes at bit to the southwest of Grímsvötn under Vatnajökull. It’s called the Eastern Skaftá Cauldron. The two lakes are called Skaftárkatlar in Icelandic.
        http://earthice.hi.is/vatnajokull_glacier_0 (English website)
        Website in Icelandic with map: http://jardvis.hi.is/joklar_og_flod_voktun
        The Skaftárkatlar are known to have small to middle sized jökulhlaups in rather regular time spans. When there were a subglacial eruption now under Vatnajökull and south of the water divide, water could also stream into the Skaftárkatlar and from there into the river Skaftá in the south of the country.

  2. I’ve been a reader of your blog, ever since I discovered it immediately after the Eyafjallajökull eruption in 2010 and its effects on Europe’s airspace. You present information in a clear and concise way that supplements other sources.

    A large Icelandic volcanic eruption is something that causes concern to me here in the UK. Few people know that historical eruptions have caused temporary climatic changes in my country; and may even have directly caused deaths in freak conditions where local build-up of volcanic gases has occurred. Bárðarbunga is one of the volcanoes of Iceland I have been especially keen to monitor, as it is potentially large enough (and close enough to Askja, itself of some concern) to effect the UK. (Some suggestions paint a maximum VEI of 6 – and explosive power comparable to that of Krakatoa in 1883.)

    I sincerely hope that the scenario you paint does not come to pass (though my own limited understanding suggests it is entirely plausible), not least of which because of the major effect it would have one Iceland and her people. In the event that the worst case scenario does happen, I strongly hope that the UK will do everything – along with the rest of Europe – to help; including providing temporary refuge to Icelanders if that should be necessary.

  3. Think about the power underneath to lift 800 meters thick ice lid… Maybe we’ll soon see some large scale action?

  4. Firstly, great site Jon hence why I have donated and hope other contributors have too. I was fortunate to fly to the site last weekend to view and photograph. Very noticeable changes at the eruption site over the week and to measurements too. The size of the walls of the three main cones have increased dramatically but the erupting material is much reduced from the North and south cones with the main one continuing to erupt but without increased velocity or hight of lava fountain. This implies reduced pressure in the dike system however harmonic tremor remains and elevated suggesting maintained lava flow. We could speculate as to why the flow to the dike system is reduced but the patern and size of earthquakes to me suggest that the flow has become restricted nearer the source i.e. nearer towards or at the caldera. If this is the case then the magma will find routs of lower resistance within the current dike system or through other points of weakness. At the moment the most likely points of pressure release as signalled by earthquake patern are in the dike under the glacier or the caldera itself. I believe Jon’s theory is the most likely scenario although I feel the eruption is likely to be towards the W or NW direction as the measurements suggest the collapse of the chamber is not uniform with greater activity toward this direction. The weight of the ice will also ‘cork’ the event forcing activity towards the periphery. I agree with Jon that a major event is brewing and while this area is very highly measured predicting what, when and how big is still unanswered and only time will tell.

  6. I wonder if the size of the magma chamber below barbadunga and the composition of the magma is known. Does the magma contain lots of dissolved gas? In that case pressure relief is not necessarily a good thing as it could trigger an explosive release of the dissolved gas.

  7. From what I have found about basaltic caldera collapse in recent times is that the EQs start big but then decrease in magnitude but increase in frequency until the big one. Is this trend observable here. In general basaltic calderas collapse more slowly. There are equations to model the collapse http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010JB007636/full. The variations are large depending on previous geological history but the quoted timeframes are days (2 – 40)

    1. Great stuff! How well does it apply to the present case? That study looks at 3 volcanoes, but surely there have been more measured collapses in recorded history? What’s the longest collapse on record (we’re already past 2 days obviously). How do these cases compare in size? What about the rifting aspect?

      I’d be interested in hearing as full a discussion of this paper and related knowledge as folks are willing to give. It really is the question of the day.

    2. Excellent article, but just had a quick look as going out.

      First thing I note is Bárðarbunga has a caldera size of about 78km2 so a lot larger than those in article.

  8. EMSC and USGS has not listed an Iceland quake for 24 hours +
    Vedur header reads – Warning – Dispersion forecasts indicate risk of high concentration of sulphur dioxide (SO2) in the northern part of Eastfjords and in Fljotsdalsherad-valley tonight and in the Myvatn-area tomorrow. A larger area cannot be ruled out. (Valid until 18 pm Sunday.)

    Cams appear peaceful to me. As I read this blog it seems Bar has quieted and may go back to sleep. Only saying what seems to me – NOT predicting or pretending to know.

    1. I think this graph, linked a few times already, is the most telling one at the moment. http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/vatnavakt/bardarbunga/

      It’s from the new GPS device placed very bravely by helicopter in the BB caldera, showing subsidence, which they know is happening to the rock, not just the ice, and maybe only the rock, so far. BB seems to be in something almost like slow motion free fall. Until this stops, sleep is the last thing BB has in mind. And even then, as that scientific study Andy posted mentions, other calderas have collapsed after appearing stable. In this case, as Jon says, we’re witnessing an event already in progress since Aug 16, in fact started long before that, many decades ago, and this is just the final chapter.

      I’ve said myself the null hypothesis is it just goes back to sleep, but it’s starting to sound like null is Mt Pinatubo. It could be even worse if other volcanoes and fissure swarms get involved, and if it isn’t, that would be the surprise, not a big eruption, which is the likelihood at this point. Let’s hope, of course.

      2. This graph is measuring the height of the ice/rock in the bardarbungar caldera as you can see its still sinking.

  10. Barda camera 1 shows a black smog in the back that has same continuous origin point.
    I don’t think is just a cloud…

    2. Its just a cloud, if steam would appear on the glacier, it would probably first be white steam

  11. Ok, thanks Jay. I can indeed see it is lowering. And the difference between the red, grey and blue line? The speed?

    1. The grey line is the actual reading but each reading is averaged out over the last 30 mins (the red line) and 180 mims (the blue line) – the blue gives the best overall info of what is happening

  12. Hi Jon, you said,
    ” There are going to be earthquakes in the range of 5,5 and up to 6,7. Maybe larger if the crust can handle it.
    I am expecting an ash cloud that might go up to 20 km or higher up in the atmosphere. It is however impossible to know for sure what happens until this starts.”
    This would translate into a VEI 4, possibly VEI 5, eruption, do you agree?

    1. The fissure at Holohraun has already erupted middling VEI 4. And it’s a baby. Bardarbunga itself contains at least dozens of cubic kilometers of melt in its upper magma chamber. That chamber itself is 200+ in capacity based on the area that is quake free. There is a lower magma reservoir as well, probably bigger, exact structure and share of responsibility for the dyke unknown. And Bardarbunga managed a VEI 6 in 1477 *without* draining itself to the point of caldera collapse – with the glacier mass.

      A full caldera event at something of this size is going to be VEI 6 (10+ cubic kilometers). It pretty much has to be.

      Exceeding VEI 6…remember, the scale is logarithmic. You can have a very, very large eruption and still be a VEI 6.

  14. Sitting at my desk, looking out over middle england, this is an occasion when I really hope Jon is wrong.
    Looking back at the results from old core studies admittedly taken from places such as the Antarctic. We should all quietly pray to whichever god we support that whatever comes out of Iceland is over quickly and quietly.
    The “big event” may well slake peoples thirst for action, the aftermath though is too terrible to wish for.
    Although history is spattered with facts about similar large events, few articles seem to show the human and animal misery which can follow.
    Keep up the good work Jon and good day to all fellow commentators.

  15. OK, thanks for the analysis.
    I didn’t know that a VEI 4 had already happened at Holohraun.
    What you’re saying is impressive, because we’re not seeing too much ash pumped into atmosphere– I guess because of the large glacier on the top of the volcano– and that was why I thought no greater eruption had occurred yet.
    A VEI 6, even at the lower range of the log scale, would be a surprise to me, and I was kind of dismissing this possibility due to the “slow rate” that the eruption process is developing.
    I guess my mistake was not to take into consideration the size of the magma chamber, in this case.

  16. The tremors at the Smjorgil station suddenly went off the charts. Any idea why that one in the southern area is doing that? wind?

    1. I noticed that and VON earlier, cant forsee this one at all. Just as Jon says though its not going to be good and even what is happening now is churning so much SO2 and other toxins into the atmosphere at a considerable rate.

    1. I can’t find any data for the quake on either the IMO site or the USGS site can you please give me the link for that quake thanks

      1. mb 4.7
        Region ICELAND
        Date time 2014-09-14 14:06:47.1 UTC
        Location 64.72 N ; 16.98 W
        Depth 2 km
        Distances 246 km E of Reykjavík, Iceland / pop: 113,906 / local time: 14:06:47.1 2014-09-14
        119 km SE of Akureyri / pop: 16,563 / local time: 14:06:00.0 2014-09-14
        100 km NW of Höfn, Iceland / pop: 1,695 / local time: 14:06:47.1 2014-09-14

        off the EMSC site

    1. It’s just a cloud. Ash cloud looks different and we would have had other signs by now. It also takes any eruption under the glacier some time to break trough the glacier due to how thick it is.

      1. Yes, clearly a cloud… flat base at the condensation level and keeps dissipating downwind which smoke/ash wouldn’t do. Surprised by the motion in it though… must have been closer to the camera than it appeared…

  26. Sunday
    14.09.2014 14:06:42 64.659 -17.371 0.1 km 5.3 99.0 7.7 km ENE of Bárðarbunga

    Source: IMO

  29. The lava samples and gas measurements show a very gassy magma originating at depth. Being very gassy is bad. It will power the eruption as bubles form on pressure release like undoing a shaken fizzy drinks bottle. BB has done a VEI 6 before in its history. All aspirated engines will fail in the ash including ships to rescue people. You will need electrically powered motors for evacuation. Perhaps nuclear powered submarines / aircraft carriers. Please place some of these in the vecinity . Perhaps they have there uses.

    1. Yes it is the depth that is interesting. We had a 4 at .5 km this morning at 06.54 and now a 5.3 at .1km .

    1. But it would seem to be “just” a cloud. There’s 1/2 a mile of ice in the way of any eruption. It will take more than a matter of minutes to melt that, maybe days!

      2. Alternatively, you would not be having to play guessing games as to whether it had erupted or not if you got a phreatomagmatic explosion with the “reagents” measured in cubic kilometers…

      3. I have been going between here and VC all morning….and not a single person said it was a plume! Several were talking about the clouds, but those with more experience and knowledge told them that they were in fact, just clouds.

  34. So did the Glacier suddenly vanish without any trace of water Janet?

    It cannot be a plume! We’ll know when the thing goes pop!

  35. Daftest question ever I expect….but does the 5.3 at only a depth of 100 metres mean its “all” about to happen? Thank you in advance 🙂

    1. No one can answer that as an event like this has not been witnessed before.

      It suggests to me the surface of the caldera has cracked / faulted now. I think we’ll get a succession of quakes as the caldera breaks up before eventually exposing the magma to the ice – THEN it gets ugly.

      1. Thank you for your reply. Its nice to know im slowly but surely grasping some of this. However im thinking now I wish I was still as ignorant to it all as I was prior August 16th. As fascinating as I find it all my cornerns for the people of iceland grow 🙁

  36. Ok, here is a prediction. Fissure eruptions under the ice this week then a major ve7 eruption on the 24th september

  37. Absalon, the link you posted only show auto eqs, 5 and up are manually verified, try the table at en.vedur.is

  39. We have to be careful to not err on the side of sensationalism, yet the events seem to indicate something major. On the other hand, we could all be sitting here watching and waiting for something to happen for a long time. I hope for the latter of the two scenarios, but my hopes will have nothing to do with the reality of it. I’m in the U.S. and the effects for me would be the pain of watching others deal with this, unless of course it effects the weather patterns, which it could. But for now, it’s something no one has been able to witness before, thanks to the technology we have such as R2D2 and all the sensors and cameras and GPS devices. As a non-practicing geologist, I find it fascinating and thanks to Jon for all the information.

  40. That black cloud looks suspicous because of the angle and altitude, but there are others almost as black overhead, so I’m thinking it’s just a cloud. Nothing less, nothing more. But darn, it sure is ominous looking.

    1. sun reflection off the glacier right there to the left, if that is what you are talking about….

    2. This happens about now every day, it is the result of the daily increase of ice melt due to the sun’s energy.

    2. What I cant understand if it is cloud why does it keep disappearing for a while and then reappear as if a plume. I am not talking about the clouds in the white/silver area above I am talking about the blueish area in the middle, there has just been a white plume aswell.

      2. In short…It’s a very dynamic system down there and it is creating it’s own weather/climate….including clouds. The areas you are talking about are well above where Bardarbunga is. If it was coming from Bardarbunga, the plumes would come from way lower on the screen.

      4. There is a microclimate above the lava fields that creates vapor condensation and therefore at low altitude. That is why clouds appear as quickly and just as quickly disappear. They are black because they are in the shade, they become white when the sun illuminate. As simple as that

      5. also, a plume would have a base….that formation has no base connecting it to the Bardarbunga or any other area in the plain. It is simply a cloud.

    1. This is the area I have been watching all the time there is movement there both white and black.

      The other clouds above dont move what I have been watching and discussing is an area that is moving.

  44. I do have to wonder whethere there’s any significance in the fact that the clouds keep forming over the same area. A vent emitting higher temperature air? Not steam, necessarily, but a long fissure giving off gas that condenses when it hits the colder air above?

  45. If you look at the current GPS data looks like radio subsidence associate with last big quake followed by rapid re-inflation.

      1. It’s probably just the glacier ice rebounding. Don’t forget the sensor is on the ice, not the caldera lid. The ice will likely take time to settle onto the surface beneath it.

      2. This is one GPS station somewhere roughly in the middle of the caldera. It moved down about 20 cm as a result of the earthquake, which was a result of the underlying deflation. It could just as easily move up a bit as a result of ice elsewhere in the caldera settling, as a delayed result of the same earthquake.

        I now see someone else has also said much the same!

      3. so officially, not subsidence? Just kind of like ice on water that was splashed around a bit and now settling down?

      4. There could be any number of things going on and because it is either under the ice or under the surface of the crust, we can’t see it. You have to keep in mind that this is what the top of the ice is doing, not what the top of the crust is doing. So there might be some discontinuity between the behavior of the ice and the behavior of the crust under it.

    1. Thank you so much for this video, I have been crying out for such footage for about a week now. I feel as if Christmas has arrived early!

  49. From my vantage point I can only see the data that Iceland Met, Jon and others provide. Based on the fact that the Icelandic authorities are preparing for the possibility of outburst floods, and seeing the harmonic tremors on the graphs, this show is not over.

    I agree with crosspatch that since this is a volcano it will be hard to predict. That being said we should remember that Bardarbunga has had very large historic eruptions and the immediate area is home to many fissure and volcanic systems such as Grimsvotn. Basically this is one of the most geologically active areas on the planet, and although it could settle down, the huge volume of magma in close proximity to a caldera with many cubic km of ice gives the potential for large volumes of tephra and outburst floods.

    I agree with the other non practicing geologists here, that this is fascinating, but I worry about the potential for harm to Iceland’s infrastructure and economy. Luckily the local emergency services are making sure the people stay safe.

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