Posted on by Jón Frímann

What to expect from Bárðarbunga volcano

I am writing this now, since I might not have time to do so on Monday. Updates are going to continue to go here until Monday. Unless something major happens.

The collapse of Bárðarbunga volcano

The collapse of Bárðarbunga volcano has already started. The caldera collapse in Bárðarbunga volcano started on 16-August-2014 and has been going on since then. Here is what I am expecting from the caldera collapse once it reaches its peak.

  • There are going to be earthquakes in the range of 5,5 and up to 6,7. Maybe larger if the crust can handle it.
  • Glacier flood are going to go south-west and north (Húsavík area) and possibly in other directions. I am expecting damage to hydrothermal plants in the pathway of the floods. How much damage there is going to be depends on the magnitude of the flood and the path it takes.
  • I am expecting long periods of no power in parts of Iceland once the flood has passed. I am also expecting lack of communications in large areas of Iceland. This is why Rúv has been telling people to get long-wave radios for the past few days. Usage of mobile network is also going to be unreliable in large parts of Iceland once the collapse starts full force in Bárðarbunga volcano. Due to damage that glacier floods are going to create.
  • I am expecting an ash cloud that might go up to 20 km or higher up in the atmosphere. It is however impossible to know for sure what happens until this starts.
  • It is difficult to know fore sure how much drop is going to take place, but it can be up to many hundreds of meters.
  • I fear that north slope of Bárðarbunga might collapse forward once this starts. Earthquakes in the area give clues about weakness forming there.

Bárðarbunga volcano is 2009 meters high above the ocean. This means there is a lot of material that is going to blow outwards once the collapse starts full force. This is might be one of largest eruptions in Iceland since it got populated more than one thousands years ago. I am hoping that the picture that I am drawing up is not as bad the reality once this starts. I am also hoping that no loss of life is going to happen. I am hoping for the best in this case, but the clues that I am getting are no good at all.

369 Replies to “What to expect from Bárðarbunga volcano”

  1. I Love your blogs Jon. Keep up the good work, & thanks for that link. I’ve book marked it already. All the best to you mate. Much love. 😉

  2. Hi, thanks for the report. Do you have any estimation about the caldera drop speed today ?

  4. Hi Jon, thanks for the update. Could you make an update on the why and how of your dire projections? I have high confidence in what you say, but would really like to know how you combine info. Hope you will share your thoughts.

    1. It is a matter of the size of Bárðarbunga volcano and this volcano is massive. It goes 2009 meter above the ocean level. It has glacier on top of it that is up to 850 meters thick.

      There is no population nearby so that is a big plus.

  5. Is the eruption getting visibly larger and brighter on the webcams? Mila 1 seems to show the steam or fog to the left of R2D2 being lit up by the lava glow, and a very bright fountain.

  6. Jon, you’re doing a great job here as a one man vulcanologist. I applaud you for your all your efforts, sheer hard work and devotion with your blg, your webicorders, and personal insight. I too have been worried about the extent of the activity and the possibilty that Bardarbunga may erupt or, even worse suffer a failure of the caldera wall. Anything that brings water or ice into, or close to the magma chamber would be disastrous.

    Also the fact that Grimsvotn is moving indicates there is magma on the move in the south of this gigantic volcanic region. What will happen is anyones guess, but even if it stays quiet and remains a fissure eruption, the fact it may last for months is a concern with the potential for huge volumes of toxic gas. It’s not Laki but we know this is Iceland and there have been massive eruptions in historical time.

  7. Jón, are we possibly looking at a major caldera forming event, i.e. the current caldera/volcano collapses precipitating a large eruption forming another, larger caldera in it’s aftermath? Also, is it possible that what you have described potentially triggering secondary eruptions from volcanos nearby such as Askja?

    1. This would be a single events is my best guess. I don’t there is enough material or energy in the system to create two calderas now. Just a single large one. When this starts I do not know, but the data that I got is not looking good and I don’t think it is going to improve in next hours to days (maybe weeks).

      After this there is going to be a new caldera forming event in the end, but you have to wait good 12.000 years or more for it. Volcanoes often do this in cycles that last thousands of years.

    2. Any thing is possible, Askja is part of the volcanic field and is a branch of the same hotspot. Now Askja lives its own life at the timebeing, and she is still at yellow alert,and has shown unrest for quite a long period. If this big eruption event happens at bårdarbunga, it might trigger all kinds of things. But most concern is the calera collapse itself and the sheer size of a following eruption, ash clouds, and toxic gasses and laharfloods it will cause.
      I have said it before and i am certain that this will cause something we will remember in historybooks for a long long time.

  8. Thanks for this Jon, it’s very ominous……so, how would you like to give your prediction for the UK National Lottery numbers for next Saturday? Just pick six different numbers between 1 and 49 and I’ll put them on. I we win it’s a 50/50 split between you and I. In fact lots of people on here could do it and if we win, you can live comfortably for ever!

    What do you think?

    1. Jon could do with the money .. but the comment about National Lottery is very off topic – unless you plan to donate any winnings to Iceland to assist with the cost of rebuilding and the people to re-establish their shattered livelihoods.

      1. This is hilarious. For a moment I even thought you might have made it up yourself, but then it’s the UK. Betting on anything is a national sport.

  9. Hi Jon, thank you and all the contributors to this blog.. It’s like a hidden gem in a world of Mis-information. Wishing all of you in Iceland well.

  10. Thx Jon, for your best prediction. I’ve never heard you use this language, which by itself tells me how serious this is. I’m hopeful it comes in at the low end of your forecast, but that ring of stars says otherwise….

  11. I applaud your efforts which have been relentless over many weeks, apparently day and night if your responses to comments are anything to go by. My own intuition is you are right about the severity of the issues as stated in your last post.

  12. Dear Jon,
    One day a book will be written about you and your work. I suggest, “The Prophet of Fire”as a possible title.
    Terrific work, keep it up if you can,
    Seanie

  13. I do not have a good feeling about the signs I am seeing but there is always the chance that it will just stop short of anything major. That’s the odd thing about volcanoes, they almost always do the unexpected. That said, this one has potential to have severe impact on the people in Iceland and beyond in a worst case scenario.

    Things that bother me: First is the deflation of the main caldera. This is apparently due to migration of magma in the system under it as it has apparently found a path out to the Northeast. There could be a combination of both the relief of pressure under the caldera and a softening of some of the rock immediately above the chamber going on, I don’t think anyone can tell exactly how much impact that might have. The migration of new material up from deeper levels might cause a remelting of older magma that had solidified or mostly solidified.

    Second we see inflation in various places such as the dike going Northeast from the main caldera which indicates magma is entering that area at a greater rate than it is leaving. The worry on my part comes in the case of a fracture in the rock in the main caldera due to the collapse that might cause the magma to find yet an easier path up than the current dike path. This could cause all that magma that has inflated the dike to come rushing back and be erupted out the caldera area.

    The third worry is that fractures in the rock can allow a lot of water to penetrate deeply into the area of the caldera, contact magma, flash to steam, causing a further opening of the rock or causing an explosion resulting in a very quick reduction in material (ice, mostly but also some rock) acting as a cap over the caldera area.

    The third item will be sort of hard to do because luckily the caldera is under hundreds of meters of ice. This creates a lot of pressure and at those pressures, water can remain liquid at very, very high temperature. The first indication of water penetrating into hotter rocks would be some geothermal activity such as increased fumerole activity, appearance of new fumeroles where none existed before, or appearance of “cauldrons” where we see depressions forming from the melting of ice. We have seen the cauldrons but they do not seem to be increasing in size at any dramatic rate, at least not that I have read so far. So at the present time, we might be seeing some minor eruptions of magma under the ice but the hundreds of meters of ice above them are keeping a lid on things so far. To get some idea, imagine an undersea volcanic vent in several hundred meters of water. It generally will not (can not) erupt explosively because the pressure prevents a large amount of steam formation. It is the sudden volume change from liquid to gas that causes the explosive power to blow ice and rock out of the way. Under great pressure, that isn’t likely to happen. And luckily, the caldera is concave shaped which tends to keep the ice and water inside. The worst case scenario is a collapse of the center of the caldera into the magma chamber like pushing a cork into a wine bottle. That would be massive. It is quite possible we could already have seen rather spectacular eruptions inside that caldera were it not for the several hundred meters of ice keeping a lid on things.

    A fourth worry is the inflation being seen in other areas. That says magma is still moving around and it could find a path to the surface anywhere at any time. Injection of fresh, hot material into a partially “slushy” old magma chamber could re-animate that system in a hurry. We see magma from the caldera area apparently moving Northeast filling the currently active dike system. This says that resistance in that direction was less than the resistance to going “up”. We might also be seeing some movement to the Northwest. Now it looks like we might be seeing some movement to the Southwest. This worries me because it implies that the break to the current dike was not enough to relieve the pressure and it has continued to find other directions in which to go. The earthquake activity can cause additional fractures to form and allow other pathways to form and completely change the nature of things at any time.

    Or the whole thing can just stop. It could stop right now as I am typing this or tomorrow. Nobody knows. The POTENTIAL here is great for a large eruption but that is not to say there is a definite indication that there WILL be a large eruption. The continued deflation of the caldera likely means that material is leaving that area faster than it is entering but we don’t know how much of that collapse of the surface is ice melting and how much is the actual floor of the caldera subsiding. It is likely some combination of both judging from the cauldrons.

    The warning sign that would flip my alarm switch is some major change in geothermal activity. If we see steam coming from the cracks in the glacier, existing fumeroles turning into geysers, new fumeroles appearing where none had been before, increased water temperature UPSTREAM from the current lava dam across the river outflow from the glacier, any of those would cause me serious concern as would a rather sudden increase in the number of large quakes in the caldera area.

    As I type this I am noting that the rapid inflation at Grimsfjall has reversed and is now deflating. That would imply that magma has found another path someplace and is spreading out somewhere under the surface but that can reverse again at any time.

    1. There are a number of systems of a huge area that are not only inflating/deflating but moving horizontally according to gps measurement. I cannot see any possible way that this will not end with a major event.

      I sincerely hope I am wrong and that Jon is wrong, but as I said some time ago, I fear for the potential and I don’t think a lot of ‘newbies’ reading these blogs (and hoping for a spectacle) realise how such a major event could impact on the northern hemisphere for several years after it occurs.

      I do think the IMO’s three scenarios are leaving room for conjecture, especially when they follow them up by saying other scenarios are possible.

      None of us are wearing blinkers, I would be delighted if it quietened down and stopped, but you would need those blinkers on 24/7 to really believe that.

  14. Jon has a donations page, please donate to help hom keep up his good work. It only needs many people to make a small donation.

  15. Jon, it is September, soon will be winter, and there will be short days and long nights, this event could not happen at a worse time of the year. What ever will be will be, mankind can only keep out of the way and watch & wait for it to finish so that re-building can start.

    We must be thankful that we have the tools and people such as IMO and yourself to understand and tell everyone in such detail what is happening; a luxury past generation did not enjoy. Thank you for what you do.

  16. Civil Protection and Emergency has English page here. http://avd.is/en/

    I have seen comments that this is just scaremongering that I am writing. It’s not. I did spend close to four days to finish calculating this thing. While I don’t know when this is going to start. I know it is going to do soon, I just don’t know when and I am on same boat as everyone else in that regard.

    Bárðarbunga volcano system is unstable and what has been erupting for the past three weeks might just be (most likely is) the top (the magma that is most lightest and has most gas in it) of what is inside the volcano system and I know all that magma wants to go out (that is what the data tells me). It just doesn’t have the path to do so yet, when it finds the path it is going to rush out that way with a force. That path is going to be the fault in the caldera that is now forming in Bárðarbunga, the system is still closed when I write this, but there have been faults that have allowed for minor eruptions in this area. Like the one that started on 23-August-2014 and lasted for few hours that day before it stopped erupting.

    As for the caldera collapse it self. This is a process that started hundred to thousands of years ago. When a weakness formed in the volcano after an eruption. I don’t think this is something that formed in the last eruptions during the past 200 to 300 years. But I don’t know the time scale on this things properly so I have large margin for errors on it.

  17. Then again it could all just peter out and die with a whimper.. state the facts, forget about scenario’s.

    Lava is simply moving away from a central source, the caldera collapse will stop shortly and the fissure eruption will too…

    Stop getting carried away…

    Its like a yellowstone scaremongering party….

    1. That is the outcome that I did consider. It is not going to happen for many reasons, it is the least likely outcome in my view. This is however going to take time, everything from weeks to months (or it might happen in few hours from now. I have no way of knowing how long this is going to take). Since time scales are different here than you are custom to.

    2. Never accuse Jon of exaggeration, irrationality or emotional theatrics. Extremism or misconstruing the problem maybe …

      That’s what makes Jon’s comments tantalizing – He’s objective to a fault
      (Pun intended)

    3. Paul, you do realize, that if you don’t like what Jon says, you can just not read HIS blog? I have been reading his blog for years, and I have NEVER seen where he has ever fearmongering….this is the most concerned I have seen from him. Having said that, no one (including scientists) have any idea as to what is going on…exactly why…or how this is going to end. If you have been following this from the beginning, you will know this is completely uncharted territory. Nothing like this has been observed by the modern scientific community. Jon has a very educated theory, that coincidentally, is one of IMO’s top three scenarios. I would rather know the worst case probable scenario than have my head stuck in the sand and pretend everything is going to be fine.

    4. Paul, state your reasons for saying this based on the current data and events and other factors.

      This blog and others like it are a safe place for conjecture and speculation, educated or not. You say, “state the facts” The fact is that no one can predict earthquakes or other geological events like volcano’s, despite all that is known of the geomorphology of this area and particular volcano and the data that is being collected. And the facts alone using any related paradigm to frame them in alone don’t allow for any reliable conclusion. This is why even the IMO lists 3 scenarios with the last statement saying, “Other scenarios cannot be excluded”.

      Based on the data, geomorphology and history, there are more reasons to expect this to have a large central caldera eruption at this point that not. The GPS data, tectonic plate separation at this hot spot along with the frequency, pattern and size of the quakes, the speed and quantity of magma that moved NE along a fissure that is rifting, along with ice cauldrons and surface cracks say that it is very more likely that Jon is right than not. There’s just too much magma coming in too fast that is overwhelming the system and the caldera roof is seriously comprised at this point and can no longer contain the pressure. At some point, ring dykes are going to form, if not already and it’s just a matter of time then before total roof collapse and then, the ice is next and that wont’ last more than 2-3 days. Then all that pressure will explode. The thing that actually worries me the most is the Grimsvotn activity. Should this eruption start to migrate SW and the intrusion continue at its pace, fissure eruptions in this area would be much more cause for concern due to its composition.

    5. Since no one really knows what might happen as volcanos are unpredictable, surely “it could all just peter out and die with a whimper” is also just a “scenario” not a “fact” and perhaps you may want to heed your own advice? Just a thought.

  18. Jon are you able to hypothetically picture in your mind the chain of events from a northern collapse of Bardarbunga caldera collapse. (I’m interested only in an estimate)

    Less ice to the North I see as a plus (could be wrong) the initial explosive eruption to vaporise that section of the glacier.

    Stop me if I over step and show bad manners but have you any contact with any Geophysicists or volcanologists at IMO or University.

    If so what are they saying off the record hypothetically.

    Thanks in advance Kyle 850 miles to the South (N. Ireland)

    1. Yes, I can do that. But I rather like to do this in text form since it less strain on me.

      I have sent emails, but I have not gotten any replays yet. That is understandable since they are all busy at the moment working on monitoring the eruption in Holuhraun.

      1. Would a large, prolonged eruption affect your plans?
        For example, are you considering alternatives such as travel by boat, etc?

      2. Jon,

        wait until the eruption is over.
        Real estate will be much cheaper and much different in iceland then.

  20. Just been looking at the Jokulsarlon webcam on Mila, i do believe you can see a small orange glow in the top right quarter of the picture.
    I’m thinking it’s from Holuhraun, it also seems brighter on Mila Bardar cam one too!

  21. Is there any way to protect car/boat engines from the ash. The amount of ash could be horrendous.

    1. Could you get a filter? Should be OK if it lets enough air through and does not get blocked.

  22. Check this out
    Big heavy cork slipping down deep weighted by heavy rock and heavy ice on top of that. On the way down, as it wedges tightly in, if the edges do not break up the cork seals it. Yet if the pressurized hot magma works its way up any damaged crack of that rocky cork – it hits the ice/water and explosions are uncontainable.

  23. It is good that you are honest with your prognosis about the situation at bardarbunga volcano. I think that even some scientist have the same opinion, but they might to be not brave enough to put it out pluntly. In case that dosn´t happen as they say, they look like idiots.. Or they cause unnecessary evacuations (for example), and lose their credibility.

    Nobody can tell anything for sure.. so it is good, when somebody is telling what can be the most probable trend.

    thank you for your work and your honesty

  24. Another thing to keep in mind, the longer this magma erupts from the current vent, the more potential for that path to grow in size. As hotter material makes its way through the system, it can “clear its throat” and melt the material around the dike making the path larger. This might act as enough of a relief valve eventually to keep the whole system from blowing its top. This could be the reason why the other vents have stopped erupting, there might now be less resistance to the flow of magma along the path to the primary vent.

  28. With regard to impact on air travel:
    One aspect that appears different (to me) from 2010 (Eyjafjallajokull) is that the winds are currently southerly over Iceland (http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/elements/centralhighlands/) vs strong north-westerly in 2010 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11152077 and http://www.nature.com/srep/2012/120813/srep00572/full/srep00572.html).
    I have not read anything that points this out, which makes me think I’m probably missing something basic. Thoughts, anyone?

    1. There is currently no subglacial eruption and no ash cloud. Winds change on a whim (days or shorter, although they’re somewhat predictable for 5-7 days). This volcanic prediction deals has a different scope and certainty; could be in days, months, years or never.

      Further, a properly big eruption (a handful times a millennium sort of event) would throw tephra into the tropopause and stratosphere where it would be carried all over by jetstreams.

    2. I work as an airline pilot for Norwegian air shuttle based in Finland, at the time of the last event i was grounded for around a week, this with the benefit of hindsight and much research proved to be unnecessary. Things have moved on a lot since then and its unlikely that a similar event would have the same effect this time around, the problem is that the magnitude of this event could be many times bigger.

      For anyone interested in any of earth sciences these events have a morbid fascination and lets be honest a major eruption would fascinate !!

      The impact on life would of course be very different from what occurred in the middle ages, life would continue, but the GDP of many Northern European counties would fall dramatically and food and energy prices would go through the roof, thankfully there is a world surplus of oil right now. The death rate of vulnerable people would also increase dramatically.

      Lets hope and pray it passes

    1. That might be the case, since ice (water) makes GPS signals strange. It is also good news, since then there is nothing happening in Grímsfjall volcano.

  30. How tall is the rocky rim of Bardarbunga relative to the surrounding terrain? If the crater rim collapses, is it going to immediately expose as much magma as at Mt. St. Helens?

    Looking at the topo Google Maps, it looks like the glacier peak is less prominent than St. Helens, so perhaps there is less potential for a catastrophic landslide and depressurizing of the magma chamber.

  31. What is the air temprature near the cauldron? Has the temps risen or changed since the erutpion started?

  32. I dread to think what this could do to the climate in the northern hemisphere. 20km high, well we know what St Helens did and this sounds potentially far far worse and long lasting. Who knows but it certainly will be an eye opener.

  33. I asked where you lived because I picked up on some emotion this update from you. Where I am thankful you are very dedicated to this page and I like to be able to jump on and be informed without having to dodge the news way of not inducing a panic ( I get honest and open facts and opinions on here) I also keeping you in mind. I hope you have no family Iceland that will be affected should this giant blow soon. And if you do I hope they are safe. ( friends also). Again thanks for all the information!!

  34. If you have nothing constructive to say, why don’t you just bugger off and start your own blog instead of dissing someone elses.

  36. Wishing it away, hand wringing and emoting does not alter the fact that this is a very real scenario, the facts are staring you in the face, I don’t see Jon saying this is 100% going to happen,but how he thinks it may play out, and i have never read anything of his where he dramatizes or exaggerates.Someone yesterday took a poster to task for mentioning a forecaster who was talking about weather effects for the uk, just research 1783/4 to see what can happen.

  37. I have to agree with Ian, when he said ” soon will be winter, and there will be short days and long nights, this event could not happen at a worse time of the year. What ever will be will be, mankind can only keep out of the way and watch & wait for it to finish so that re-building can start. ” I believe we should all concentrate on saving our own skins, our cars, homes, etc. Since the government in Iceland says it believes the welfare of Icelanders is extremely important, I will believe their sincerity if and when I learn that they are creating a backup plan to evacuate the island. This is not so unusual, Pacific Islanders have been known to do that in the event of an even potentially dangerous eruption – and Bardarbunga certainly qualifies. We need to keep ALL humans FAR out of the way of this thing. To answer Andy’s question, as far as protecting your car or boat, you certainly should. ANY engine, not just airplane engines, are at risk and should be covered with a large piece of plastic when ashfall is anticipated. Personally, I own a plastic cover to protect my car to fit on top of it, as protection from ice and snow in the winter, but it can be repurposed to cover every possible crack or opening that leads to the engine, by fitting it onto the hood of the vehicle. And leave it there until the ashfall is over. I learned how to do that when I was there and Redoubt erupted in Alaska. Best wishes to you all for your health and personal safety during this, and once again, thank you Jon for your diligence.

    1. I am curious why you think it would be worse to happen in winter. My feeling is the opposite. Winter would be the least harmful time from the standpoint of tropospheric SO2 injection from my thinking. The sun angle is already very low and it is generally a stormy time, the additional SO2 aerosols will get washed out of the troposphere rather quickly and will have less impact on solar energy in winter because there is little of it to begin with. If it happened in June when the sun angle is highest, it would have a much greater impact. As it stands, most of the SO2 will be washed out of the troposphere long before spring should the eruption last that long. If it lasts through the winter into the spring, though, all bets are off.

      1. Crosspatch

        I was just about to say the same, winter weather and low pressure system will quickly disperse any ash cloud to the South East, but more importantly will prevent a local build up of Sulphuric gasses that will occur with stagnant high pressure systems, also snowfall is very good for scrubbing the air of all kinds of pollutants

  38. I’ve been working the field for two weeks and have not had time for Internet indulgence so have been catching-up on developments (which have been surprisingly few).

    So my first impression is the crustal divergence stopped almost the same day I went back to work after 31st August. But even before I left I’d noticed the quake numbers and sizes were steadily dropping from the peak around the 24th of August. So that’s ‘good’ news, at least from a distant observer’s perspective, for if that hadn’t slowed then things would be a whole lot uglier at this point. Consequently I’d say there’s at least a possibility now that it can defuse itself with a more benign series of eruptions.

    Second, except for a single mag 4.1 at 20 km dept on Sept 11th, the sub crustal quakes are almost absent now when compared to three weeks ago.

    Thirdly, more people seem to be more doubtful of developments due to the relative vertical displacement and implied stress rises within the NNW rim of the caldera rim.

    But despite this, direct measurements of Bardarbunga deflating are actually better than measurements of it inflating. In short, the things that worried me two weeks ago have all improved somewhat.

  39. Those that are saying Jon is scaremongering. Well, I don’t think so myself. I have followed Jon’s blog for years, since Eyjaf became a thing and his thoughts at the time were the most level headed and accurate I could find on the net.

    The scaremongering takes place elsewhere & on chat channels, not here.

    This is already a historic eruption in a number of ways and no real signs of it stopping at the moment. While quake activity continues forces are at work.

  40. My house has a flat roof, it probably could take 5cm of ash but not much more 🙁

    As I will want to spend as little time as possible outside, what would be the quickest way of removing the ash. Any ideas welcome?

    If we get rain and ash, then I think it will be goodbye roof.

  43. Hyper Al, don’t you think that’s a bit premature? Wouldn’t it be best to wait and see what happens, rather than clog this blog up with removing ash fall that could be months away, if at all.

    1. Sorry, I was just asking a question and thought some on this thread may have an answer. As for premature, well maybe, but I would like advice before it happens and not after! Particularly if the jetstream happens to be over the eruption at the time and spreading the ash my way at 150mph or whatever speed the jet stream is.

  44. Jon I have just noticed that there was another drop measured on the GPS at about 4.30am this morning, but there was no earthquake recorded. could this be caused by ice settlement and not the collapse of the caldera. if so it could be caused by melting ice deep down ?

  45. Pardon the most unscientific and probably obviously dumb question from someone trying to learn more about volcanoes, yet is overwhelmed by the amount of data out there.
    If there is a volume of water on top of the bottom of the caldera, can one definitely measure whether it is still concave?

    1. There were at least two sub glacial lakes sitting in the base of the caldera. I saw a graph somewhere that clearly showed the sagging in the middle of the caldera relative to the edge, not the ice on top. Presumable they are using ground/ice penetrating radar to determine this.

  46. The tremor seems to rise sharply this morning at Grimsfjall and Vonastard station right? Do you think it is related to the dyke or means magna motion closer to the caldera as these SIL stations are closer to the caldera? At Dyngjuhals I do not see a tremor increase.

  48. Earthquake activity really picking up large earthquakes over the last few minutes. the web cam has been moved round so unable to get a clear view. could this be the volcano showing it’s hand now.

    3. Harmonic tremor has increased possibly more magma movement but drumplota don’t show an increase in quake activity.

    4. Where do you see the large quakes? Apart from the M4 earlier on I don’t see anything else.

  50. I agree with Andy, looking at the scientific data I think we are looking at an incredibly fast escalation once the next phase commences. In layman’s terms there is too great a propulsive force behind the lava flow, too great a fragility within the earth after so many large quakes, and a vast volume of ice and melt-water complicating the equation. My intuition is the escalation will declare itself in a dramatic fashion which cannot be mistaken.

    If Jon to writes his biography (the suggested title “Prophet of Fire” would be excellent) it will not take him ten years to earn his living from writing. Provided he can settle down to writing it over the next few months I predict he will earn his living from writing within two years.

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