Posted on by Jón Frímann

Bárðarbunga volcano daily update 22-September-2014

This information is going to get outdated quickly.

Current status in Bárðarbunga volcano at 14:47 UTC

  • The largest earthquake so far is magnitude 4,8 in Bárðarbunga caldera. There is however continued activity in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera so this number is going to change as the day goes on.
  • The eruption in Holuhraun does not show any signs of ending any time soon. The lava field is now around 37 square km in size. It is growing in size every hour. There is no sign of less production of lava coming from the active craters in Holuhraun. The lava field is not getting longer, it is getting wider instead. Since the lava does not have energy to get any further then it already has.
  • There is continued risk of new eruptions in Holuhraun and south of it, including under the glacier.
  • According to Ármann Höskuldsson geologist at University of Iceland both Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption in 2010 (information here, Wikipedia) and Grímsfjall volcano eruption in 2011 (information here, Wikipedia) were smaller then current eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano and connected events.
  • It is expected that eruption is going to start in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera. When is not known.
  • Bárðarbunga volcano caldera continues to subside at the same rate as before, that rate is currently 50cm/day.
  • More magma is flowing into Bárðarbunga volcano from depth (more than 10 km deep source). It is clear that current eruption and earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano is going to continue for months at shortest. This might go on for years at the longest. With minor breaks as often happen in fissure eruptions.
  • On 1-October-2014 the eruption in Holuhraun has been ongoing for one month.

Current status in Bárðarbunga volcano at 20:24 UTC

  • There has not been any major changes since earlier today. At 13:36 UTC a magnitude 4,7 earthquake took place. Other earthquakes so have been smaller.
  • There was (or is) a quiet period for the past few hours. This might be because more magma is flowing into the magma chamber of Bárðarbunga volcano. Increasing the pressure and at the same time creating fewer earthquakes. That might change at any time without warning.

Update at 23:13 UTC

  • The lava field at Holuhraun is now 0.5 km³. It is now the second largest lava field in Iceland during the past 150 years. Only Hekla lava field from 1947 is larger at the moment, it is 0.8 km³ in size. If the Holuhraun eruption continues as it has, it is going to get Hekla lava field size in about two weeks.

If anything new happens I am going to add that information here.

Article updated at 20:25 UTC on 22-September-2014.
Article updated at 23:13 UTC on 22-September-2014.

285 Replies to “Bárðarbunga volcano daily update 22-September-2014”

  1. Yes, it’s definitely worth it. Humans produce more pollutants than volcanos … and then we have to breathe that stuff. Scrubbing at the source is our best bet at present.

  2. The SO2 is nasty stuff at the moment but will quickly become sulphates, sulphites and sulphides and become incorporated into building proteins and dna.

    1. One side effect of reducing sulfur emissions from power plants is that farmers have now had to begin buying sulfur to apply to fields in many areas. In the post-war world, they got enough from atmospheric sources from burning of coal, at least in the US. Due to the great reduction in SO2 from power plants and conversion to gas power, farmers have had to resort to purchasing sulfur for application to fields.

      1. In the UK, people sometimes buy miscible sulphur to spray on their roses. Black spot has become much more common since we off shored all the heavy industry and quit burning coal.

    1. And I thought you were politely changing the topic. Big quake! Look at Jon’s webicorder. No report from USGS yet

  5. Regarding concern about EQs going silent without looking at drumplots, it appears that many are manually entered by IMO. This is a screenshot of the IMO subsidence graph from 4:50 UTC showing no EQs since around 22:30. Sometime soon, it will be backfilled by IMO.

    http://imgur.com/899azaS

  6. Is there a story for what is pushing the Bardarbunga GPS sensor up? The long average moves up by 5-10cm at times, which seems surprising. There doesn’t seem to be a diurnal pattern, so might not be ice/frost. If it’s real, what is providing the force to lift the ice?

    1. Acc. to what Jón says there is an inflation going on at Bárdarbunga now. This would explain the uplift movements.

  7. Jon explained that in this thread. A general tip: read the thread before posting your question as it’s usually already been answered.

  8. As we believed yesterday, it still can be visually confirmed a new “triangle” eruption in the fissure…so it is not a line fissure anymore but a kind of “triangle with action in the vertex”.

    Isn’t this a novelty itself? or just that I missed when this happened previously?
    This could confirm a big volcano can grow there within months…space between craters might melt too in the near future leading to new fissure mega caldera? as big f.ex as Bdb.

    1. This is interesting. Haven’t heard this up to now. Are there other data to prove the existence of this triangle formation, a map or a fly over video to show it perhaps?

      On the other hand, Bárdarbunga is not as all a “mega caldera”, in the best, she is something of medium dimensions as calderas go, compare eg. to Yellowstone or Longvalley.

    2. No. Its straight line where the nature can fit it and circles after that in forms of craters once most of the other activity on the fissure has ended.

  9. The new lavas have been measured again at the weekend by scientists from Univ. of Iceland and Landsvirkjun (the firm with the power stations in the highland).

    It’s about 37km2 now (data from saturday). Next to the craters, it is highest, up to 30 m, 18-22m high at other places, average about 14 m (!). The quantity of the lavas is now 0,5 km3 +/-0,1 km3. The lava output during these three weeks was then about 250-350 m3/sec.

    http://jardvis.hi.is/bardarbunga_2014 (in Icelandic)

  10. Keep on topic please. Speculation from “Scientists” that loose raw data and dont publish their statistical analysis techniques is simply not to be believed full stop.

    1. All of interest if well explained and with an educated speech.

      I don’t understand your post and to who is it referring….
      Can you add the data? or you are only asking for it…. without giving it?
      Your post does not help at all. Hope mine does help you to explain yourself better.

      Have a great day.

  11. Dropping down now…

    After illusory rebound, the gps is down again… maybe 30 cms in last 6 hours.

    1. Confirmed… 35 cms down. A huge drop after 5.2 eq.

      I have a doubt. We know how drop the glacier surface but… the bottom of the glacier is crashing down at the same rate?

      Sorry again, my english is very bad.

    2. This GPS measurement of the BARD station is generating more questions than solving.
      Potentially it was better just to publish a weekly sattelite based change map of the the caldera.

      I start to think we see the own frequency of a giant drum: some EQ do hit the drum and then we see these clear wobbling of the ice cap.

  13. Just an idea: we all know where to find the GPS data, tremor and drumplots.

    Is it really necessary to mention each event several times, from all the sources?
    It makes the thread grow unneccesary and difficult to keep an overview.

    Jon is making a page which contains all the links. (VC has such a page already)
    If you find something which is not on or have some insight wich could explain what is happening. Please let us know.
    Or if you have a question that grows from the data that is building up: feel free to ask after you are sure it hasn’t been answered.

    BTW: this is a pure Bárðarbunga & volcano related thread, leave all the rest for the specific websites

    1. When I have asked questions, they have not been answered.

      Maybe a questions only thread and seperate chat thread is a good idea.

  14. I wonder if we are seeing some form of plastic behaviour here – in that there could be an increase in the rate of sinking after a period of fairly consistent subsidence?

  15. I think the rate of earthquakes has dropped, but that this seems to be attributed to the dyke only. It looks as though now the eruption is getting it’s magma from lower down, the dyke is much quieter. Possibly nothing is flowing through the dyke any more, or the magma has different viscosity. Perhaps the eruption has become an independant volcano feeding off decompression mantle magma nearer to itself, and the dyke no longer has magma flowing from Bardarbunga.

  16. We do not seem to have had updated reports concerning changes noted on flights over the area in the last few days or so. If I have missed the reports could someone kindly point me in the right direction!

      1. Someone must be getting advertising revenue from the various monitoring websites… and the Icelandic tourist board should be investing in this increased attention.

    2. There is now a budget issue at University if Iceland regarding monitoring it. I suspect the same issue has now shown it self at Icelandic Met Office.

      Before this eruption. The longest eruption that had taken place in Iceland was in Eyjafjallajökull (around 8 weeks) and Krafla (1974 – 1984, with breaks) before that.

  17. Seems like a minor earthquake-swarm took place under the Mýrdalsjökull glacier. The largest quake had a magnitude of about 2,7. I don’t know anything about the depth of the quakes. The most quakes were on the western rim of the Katla caldera.

    What could this mean? Could this be a magmaflow? Or is it more likely that there was a small pressure chance or a minor Jökulhlaup or something?

    The Eyjafjallajökull eruption started after a earthquake swarm with only minor quakes, didn’t it?

    I’m just curious. I don’t know to much about volcanism but i’m following your blog for a few years now. This is really a nice place to learn about volcanism and earthquake activity on Iceland and in general.

    Thank you for this amazing and informative bog!

    Source: http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/myrdalsjokull/

    1. A very small swarm as happen there from time to time.

      In this case most of the earthquakes seem to belong to Goðabunga, a cryptodome at the western side of Mýrdalsjökull, which is said to be probably independent of Katla.

  18. According to the latest report by the Scientific Advisory Cttee, the total volume of subsidence in BB caldera is now 0.6km3, not significantly different from the current total volume of the Holohraun lavaflow (0.5km3 +/- 0.1km3). Is this just coincidence? The earthquakes under the fissure mainly originate at greater depths than those under BB and Gudmundsson et al refer to it as a regional dike, not a radial dike originating from the caldera.

  19. As others have also said, the steadiness of long-term subsidence since they installed that sensor is a bit mystifying. I’m sure it’s not exactly a straight line, but it looks that way. What physical process could account for such consistent data? On the inside of the magma chamber as evinced by the continuing quakes, it must be hellishly chaotic, sections of the roof collapsing into the magma, dikes opening and closing, etc — and yet overall, that stately steady rate. What could be big enough or stable enough to cause that? You’d think if it were just the dike or the upper magma chamber we’d see more variation. Is there a direct connection with the mantle plume?

    1. It would be a steady rate if it was supported by magma which was draining off below like an egg timer.

    2. Offering “linear” processes:

      constant volume magma chamber + constant lava flow
      –》 piston-like subsiding
      (caldera drop volume ~ lava field volume)

      constant volume magma chamber + d(rift
      ? fissures ?

      direct connection to the mantle plume
      ? temporarily ( closed – open – closed) or continuous ?

      constant heating source leading to
      constant melting rate of ice in the caldera
      ? evidence (radar, water conductivity, …) ?

      several mechanisms accidentally adding up to linear plots
      ? probability, plausibility?

      measurement artefacts
      ? plausibility ?

  20. Long term, overall subsidence with brief periods of apparent inflation due to underlying magma pushing up makes this all very interesting. I believe that subsidence could be caused by both melting of the glacier (ice contracts when melted so even though water is trapped it has less volume) and evacuating of a magma chamber, though I believe that the periodic inflation indicates that the magma chamber is not emptying out. As a result, I believe that what we are seeing is ice melting and inflation, and melting ice is winning the battle so subsidence continues. And the more melting that we see, the less confining pressure/overburden above the magma chamber so we should see larger periodic inflation cycles and more rapid drops in caldera elevation as the intruding magma melts more ice. Yes, this is quite a battle going on inside the system. I would appreciate others comments on this, I am a Geologist but by no means an expert on volcanoes.

    1. The earthquake depth seems to show that the ground below the ice is subsiding too, but I think the rate it can do that is being limited by it being supported by magma.

      1. I would like to understand your theory on earthquake depth and subsidence. I would think that the apparent periodic inflation we see would mean that magma chamber remains full and is pushing upwards so ground below the ice could not easily subside.

      2. I do not believe that ice melting is contributing significantly to the subsidence. Density difference is less than 10 percent. The height of the ice is 700 m which means that there is room for something like 60 meter if the ice would be completely replaced by water.

    2. I think the magmas rises are round the edge of the Caldera mainly. Many of the transient rises and falls are not real. They are just GPS drift i.e. intrinsic GPS error. If they could afford to sacrifice a state of the art GPS device it would be more stable, but they can’t because they know it’s final resting place will probably be down a collapsed caldera. More costly ones use more satellites and correction between them and cross referencing which other nearby devices, to iron out unreal peaks and troughs like we keep seeing.

    3. In other words I dont think we are observing the periodic inflation at all. I think inflation is occuring round the edges and largly unobserved except for the wider scale distortion seen if we compare all the local GPS sites against each other. All I see I thin are the falls, and “noise” due to the inherant errors of the GPS monitor.

      1. Quote:- “If you use http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/vatnavakt/skafta/ together with http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Bardarb/BARC/, you can easy see if a sudden drop is real, if it’s real it will not show on skafta, if it’s GPS error skafta has the same error.”

        I wish it was as simple as that, but the satellites are all moving and that affects accuaracy of both station together periodically, then another station comes into view and accuracy may improve……

        Basicallt you are measuring relative to a changing frome of reference and the processing makes compromises so it varies in accuracy over time.

      3. I agree with Treacleminer !
        GPS readings (especially near real time ones) are inherently noisy,and it it unwise to read any thing much into the rapid fluctuations that are plotted !

        P.S. Skafta appears to be a GPS unit also . Kinda of a circular argument, I think ?

  21. A few questions:

    How accurate is the GPS measurement? If it can be affected quite badly by ice overnight, can some other factor be degrading the measurement over time?

    Are earthquakes causing subsidence or is the subsidence causing earthquakes? If a ‘plug’ is floating on or sinking into magma, it will presumably get stuck along the way and jolt, just like a plate subduction zone on a small scale.

    What is the net movement of magma? If the caldera has sunk by 0.6km3 and the effusion is c0.5km3, isn’t there also expansion of various dikes to take into account?

    Why have earthquakes continued for so long in the same spot just on the edge of the glacier?

    Why does no-one comment on the continued dike intrusion North of Askja? That has now got nearly 100km from its source.

  22. I think lava total has occurred with water or ice no contact.
    Since there are no vapor or steam is visible.
    Water is at 100 degrees = 1000x the volume.

  24. Treacleminer: So, if it is a steady drop supported by the magma, when will the pressure be equal or reverse? When there is no relief from a large fissure?
    Could a very big earthquake throttle the current main fissure for keeps?
    Pardon the questions if they are really dumb. Just ignore them then, ok?!
    (Your name does make me smile; like a mole swimming…)

  25. Treacleminer: So, if it is a steady drop supported by the magma, when will the pressure be equal or reverse? When there is no relief from a large fissure?
    Could a very big earthquake throttle the current main fissure for keeps?
    Pardon the questions if they are really dumb. Just ignore them then, ok?!
    (Your name does make me smile; like a mole swimming…)

    Oops, I pressed twice – slow computer, nothing appeared, so I am trying once more?

    2. The question you are asking can’t be answered by anyone with a high degree of accuracy. People can use models to guess, but Bardarbunga is probably a cascading system of collapses and we do do not even know the exact number of magma chambers involved. It has more than on, all at different depths. We don’t know the lowest level of instability, though it is probably collapsing from mantle level. We do not know what is directly above what. There are too many unknowns.

  26. I really think the Icelandic government and academic community should be getting international funding support to help them monitor and study this current volcanic event, as it certainly will have an impact far beyond Iceland. EU certainly should help with the costs.

    1. My opinion also.

      And I think they will find support in this.

      This FutureVolc project eg. may help. Also the cooperation with the University of Cambridge and others.

  27. This convo about GPS has occured before and I pointed out at the time (and backed up with links) that GPS, at best, is accurate to only 3M, maybe as bad as 7.8M.

    “The U.S. government is committed to providing GPS to the civilian community at the performance levels specified in the GPS Standard Positioning Service (SPS) Performance Standard. For example, the GPS signal in space will provide a “worst case” pseudorange accuracy of 7.8 meters at a 95% confidence level. (This is not the same as user accuracy; pseudorange is the distance from a GPS satellite to a receiver.)”

    http://www.gps.gov/systems/gps/performance/accuracy/

      2. GPS is used in skyscraper construction to make sure the buildings are erected straight. This requires mm precision.

    2. From Cascades Volcano Observatory:

      A common way of eliminating these potential errors is to set up GPS receivers over several volcano benchmarks at the same time so that we can simultaneously collect data from the same satellites. Since most of the error associated with the delay of the signal through the atmosphere and the location of the satellites becomes the same for all sites, we can determine their positions relative to one another to less than a centimeter. For the greatest accuracy, we collect GPS data for 8 to 24 hours and then calculate the position of the benchmark utilizing more precise satellite locations and modeling the atmospheric delay.

      http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/activity/methods/deformation/gps/index.php

      1. I know there are plenty of ways to eliminate GPS errors, but Iceland is a country of just 300,000 working people and their budgets are very limited. They don’t have the money to put top dollar equipment on top of a collapsing volcano – heck, currently, they barely have the budget to staff the desks looking at the EQ activity.

    3. Did you read the 2nd paragraph of that article you linked to???

      “Higher accuracy is attainable by using GPS in combination with augmentation systems. These enable real-time positioning to within a few centimeters, and post-mission measurements at the millimeter level. ”

      I’d guess they are using said augmentation – don’t you???

      1. Yes they do, otherwise it would be pointless…
        Just Google GPS in combination with WAAS, EGNOS and RAIM. Same is used in aircraft nowadays to provide enough accuracy to make instrument landings in low visibility possible.
        (and even more precision can be obtained by using earth based reference stations)

      2. Looking at the plots that clearly show errors of more than 3M at times, I’d say no! It can be taken for granted the volcano isn’t jumping up & down 3Metres, so these MUST be GPS errors.

  28. Can someone please give a working link to the Kverkfjoll /Askja webcam? I know it is just still frames, but every link I go to does not work. Thank you in advance….I know that it must be working because I see screeenshots of it frequently.

  31. which link are you referring to? I can’t find that text (e.g. search for augmentation ) in either 😉

  32. At moments like this Iceland feels to be a very small country … Large town really. 325,000 people. They have burned through their annual winter snow removal budget

    1. Amazing people!

      Imagine one small to medium sized continental European city (ie 325K +/– people) producing and running what Iceland does: newspapers, TV stations, universities, great writers and pop musicians, composers and orchestras, a fishing fleet, and some of the world’s best volcanologists!

      2. Many people already do two jobs, and some of them voluntarily – eg. the Icelandic Search and Rescue Association people, whose vehicles have featured in several photos of the Bardabunga events.

  33. Yes Iceland is a small country and monitoring volcanoes is very expensive, not only the EU should help but the UN should also help with the costs. If and when a big one does happen, it will have a big economical impact, just look at 2010 and that wasn’t a big avent.

    1. I don’t disagree with that at all. EU should bare the cost of a volcanic event that has the ability to affect the EU. It shouldn’t be Iceland’s “problem”.

    3. I beg to differ.
      Why should we monitor a volcano near which no one lives?
      If it erupts then those who don’t notice don’t need to know about it
      and those who notice don’t need expensive monitoring equipment.

      1. You are welcome to continue living with your head in the sand as an ostrich does, but in reality a large eruption from Bárðarbunga will affect the UK. Even though no ne lives by it.

  34. Thi is a unique event. It would be a great loss not to capture as much information as possible. The EU if not the UN should provide funding. Putting an expensive but accurate gps on bb is worth it. Nothing lime this will happen again for hundreds if not thousands of years.

    1. While I agree good monitoring is essential for such a unique event, and it behooves the world economy to pay attention, I’m not sure more precise GPS measurements provide all that much. You can read microfiche with an electron microscope, but it’s way more expensive than just a plain glass lens and ends you up with much more unneeded background noise. Closely monitoring bits of a large, unequally crumbling caldera that will eventually collapse and then explode when the bullet hits the bone probably isn’t going to
      provide any great shakes of info compared to just doing a smoothed measurement over a longer time period.

      My opinion only, I think any invested money is better spent on EQ monitoring, subsurface scans, and magma composition analysis.

    2. The GPS measurements they are getting are very accurate as they are, and the 3-hour averaged signal clearly shows a steady drop punctuated by more abrupt drops when strong shallow EQs occur.

      There is absolutely no need for instantaneous sub-centimeter accuracy, and considering that something as simple (and unavoidable) as ice on the antenna would affect it, such accuracy is probably not even possible with a more expensive unit.

  35. Maybe they need to shift the money from the Culture budget to the Volcano budget – would seem that it’s more vital to the country.

      1. I agree, but when you run out of money to properly monitor what can be a potentially dangerous situation, you need to get the priorities straight between the “need to have” and the “nice to have”

  36. Politics have nothing to do with what’s going on now, what I’m saying there should be a national fund for scientists to monitor not just icelands volcanos, all volatile volcanos. If they can blow billions on worthless space projects, why not invest and study something more worthwhile like our own planet.

    1. Some of these ‘worthless space projects’ have allowed us the technology to see and measure those events, GPS being just one of them, most science is useful, but this event needs and justifies proper funding, humanity can learn much from this

    2. Quote: “discharge rate was estimated to 250-350 cubic meters per second. This corresponds to a cube measuring approx. 300 m on its sides”

      Err, no! That’s metres cubed not cubic metres. Try c. 7 x 7 x 7 !

    3. The professionals can correct me if wrong, but I don’t think it’s a VEI anything until there is actually an explosive eruption (VEI = Volcanic Explosivity Index). It may have produced an amount of lava equivalent to a VEI 5, but I don’t think effusive eruptions enter into that scale. For example, Kilauea has produced huge amounts of lava over the past 30 years, but it’s classified VEI 0 since its eruptions are non-explosive.

      1. It needs some explosive component. Laki is commonly classed a VEI 6 but was almost entirely effusive.

        Don’t dwell too much on the VEI scale. It has some major limitations.

  39. What’s going on at Holuhraun is big, but if Bards decide to show it’s full force that could be massive and proberly will effect millions and write another chapter in Icelands story. That why I said it is everybody’s interest to help fund those scientists who risk there lives to help people understand.

    1. Yes exactly 🙂

      What’s happening now is tiny. Estimated 0.4 cubic km of lava have so far been erupted, bardabunga’s record is around 30 cubic km!!!!

    2. I don’t know where exactly the webcam has it#s position…but you know that there is a geothermal field? Before the fissure brokes up, the cam pointed down to this area. So I think they only turn the cam a little bit in another direction and the steam is from the geothermal area.
      But it looks nice with the “frozen” stones at the morning.

      2. Thanks IngeB!
        2011 I tried to go to this area. We have a guided 4- hour-walk from Kverkfjöll hut over the glacier and it was really fine weather, but my condition and my knees where not so good…so we could only see the steam from deeper areas.
        The whole walk had to be 10 hours I think…

    1. Yes, coming up on 3 hours since a significant EQ in the caldera (I don’t count the 0.5, the rest look like fissure, and subsidence very flat for long enough to look real). I guess we’ll see….

  44. Just a short comment on the GPS-accuracy. From Institute of Earth Sciences facebook account, sep. 15, http://www.facebook.com/earthice.UI/posts/823118257708207

    A GPS instrument was set up in the Bárðabunga caldera few days ago (see photos in a post below). It is not on solid bedrock, just measuring the ice surface elevation to monitor height changes. IMO has set up real time processing relative to VONC (Vonarskard GPS site). In addition we have set up 8 hour solutions to compliment the the real time processing.

    That is, it seems they are doing differential GPS with VONC as a reference. This would increase precision from the nominal 7 meters or so, but disturbances at VONC (e.g. ice) would show up as noise at BARC.

    1. Good job tracking that down! That explains why, even when sketchy, the GPS signal is generally staying within a 50 cm or less range. The occasional jumps outside of that range are pretty rare and seem to be more common at night. (ice?)

      Differential GPS removes most error coming from atmospheric effects, which is the largest error component. Error caused by ice can still appear (and can happen on 2 antennas now), and any changes at VONC would be attributed to BARC — for example, if VONC rises due to magma pressure below it, this would show as a drop at BARC (and vice-versa).

  49. Magnitude Mw 5.5
    Region REYKJANES RIDGE
    Date time 2014-09-23 19:18:24.9 UTC
    Location 53.17 N ; 35.18 W
    Depth 2 km

    Possible interaction with Krýsuvík, Godabunga or not?

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