Posted on by Jón Frímann

Bárðarbunga volcano Monday update on 20-October-2014

I am sorry for this late update. I was working on my server computer. More details at the end of this article.

Overview of weekend (18 – 19-October-2014) activity in Bárðarbunga volcano

Strongest earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano during the weekend had the magnitude of 5,4, second largest earthquake that took place during the weekend had the magnitude of 5,2. Other earthquakes have been smaller. Eruption in Holuhraun continued as it has been doing so for the past 1,9 month. During the weekend the new lava field in Holuhraun became the biggest in Iceland for the past 200 years. Other then this, nothing major did happen far as I know.

Monday 20-October-2014 activity update

Earthquake activity has been in high today, compared to yesterday (19-October-2014). Strongest earthquake had the magnitude of 5,0 and the second largest earthquake had the magnitude of 4,8. Other earthquakes where smaller, but a lot of magnitude 3,0 and 4,0 have happened today. Earthquake activity along the dyke has been increasing again after few quiet days.

141021_0005
Earthquake activity today in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

The lava field in Holuhraun continues to grow and is now around 61 square kilometres in size. That is an (my own estimate) around 0,9 km² of lava in the Holuhraun area. Making this the largest eruption in Iceland for the past 200 years and it just keeps going on. The 16-October-2014 marked two month anniversary of start of the activity in Bárðarbunga volcano, it is going to be two months since the eruption started on 29-August-2014. The first eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano happened on 23-August-2014 and happened under the glacier, that eruption ended the same day. Other then what I report here, I don’t think there is nothing else to report about the eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano.

Notes about Bárðarbunga volcano

Please note that there is no evidence of felsic or intermediate magma in Bárðarbunga volcano. It is all just Ultramafic magma that is now erupting. For more details on magma please click here (Wikipedia). The glacier inside the caldera is moving down with the caldera. There is no evidence of any eruption taking place inside the caldera so far. It might happen in the future (and the wait might not be long), so far it just has not happened yet. There is a chance of hydrothermal activity taking place in Bárðarbunga volcano due the magma warning up the crust, that is however only of the magma is shallow as 1 – 2 km deep in the crust.

FreeBSD server

The reason why I didn’t update last weekend and late today is that I was trying to move my server from FreeBSD to Gentoo Linux. That did not work. What my server does is few things. Among the thing that my server does is to count earthquakes in Iceland like this image shows.

teljari.21.10.2014
Image of the mrtg counter script for earthquakes. This image is released under Creative Commons, see CC Licence page for more details. Mrtg is a open source software.

It also runs my Minecraft server. I Play that game since I don’t play many games now. Both due to lack of time and interest. I play the game with my friends at times, when we have time to do so.

2014-10-21_00.16.26
Lava in Minecraft. It doesn’t create lava fields. I guess that would be bad if it did that. Copyright of artwork belongs to Mojang and / or Microsoft. I took the image from the game using it screenshot function.

It is important for me to keep the earthquake counter running when I can do so. I also have to have my Minecraft server up and running so I can play when I have time to do so.

Article updated at 02:07 UTC.

124 Replies to “Bárðarbunga volcano Monday update on 20-October-2014”

  1. Jon, I really appreciate the effort you put into keeping us updated about the eruption. If I had enough money, I would gladly give you a big donation.

  2. Minecraft is awesome. I take my middle guy to a special multiplayer Minecraft group for autism spectrum kids every month; he absolutely loves it!

    1. Passionate bloke who likes to run into burning buildings and watch erupting volcanoes close up. Uhm must be the other half … Then there is the geology, lol. Interesting mix

  3. Here’s a blue-sky thought.

    There was quite a noisy period at the caldera earlier today. Quite a little sequence of quakes. Speculation of a possible phreatic event.

    Have a look at the the GPS:

    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Bardarb/BARC/barc_gps_3d_is.png

    And the long-term:

    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Bardarb/BARC/barc_gps_all_is.png

    That’s started to give the appearance of flattening out. Now, it may be a mathematical artifact of imprecision and fluctuation in the GPS. Or… could it possibly have grounded out? ‘Hit bottom’? Or at least got hung up on something?

    If so, the next quake *might* be a real biggie.

    Check? Or nonsense?

    1. The pattern has been this, there has been magnitude 5,0 earthquake around every 30 hours. There is clearly something going on Bárðarbunga volcano. I am just not sure what.

      1. The quakes, sure; that’s a pretty regular pattern. But there was a busy period earlier today.

        I’m more interested in the GPS. The last few hours have been the flattest trend we’ve seen for a long time – perhaps ever. It’s seen on the blue graph. Perhaps, maybe, we’re at an inflection point, if you follow me.

        The next few hours, maybe a full day, will tell.

      2. Oh, you think I am media because of my website. No, not in the usual sense that is. Two questions: How many total meters has the caldera at Bardarbunga dropped so far, since we started all this? Could you graphically show the approximate geographic area that has now become a huge lava field–maybe by red circle, or a colored area over a map? Thank you, again, volcanomeister.

    2. They say the caldera is now sinking at the rate of 40 cm a day as opposed to ~50 cm in the earliest days of the eruption.

      1. And it has been confirmed that when the line on the former chart is rather gray, it is because of disturbance – this time probably due to an expected solar flair, so be careful in interpreting info on the chart as it is now.

  4. Mike if it is at an inflation point,then would this suggest that this event involves high silica magma?It seems like the caldera floor is being subjected to forces causing deformation and this is not a plunger effect.This viscous magma is being mobilized around the rim fault of the caldera due to basaltic intrusion.This is could be causing the development of very vigorous hydrothermal activity ,particularly at the rim of the caldera.

    1. Geyser, no. Inflection point, not inflation point. Two completely different things!

      Nothing whatever to do with silica!

      Please stop banging this high-silica drum; there’s nothing in the data or the history to suggest it.

      1. Ok inflection point where the trend of the line changes,in this case the trend is downwards,so for the trend to change it either has to flatten or go upwards.If subsidence trend is flattening then the event due to drainage is coming to an end and the fissure eruption will conclude in the near future.What are you trying to infer,what drum are you banging,that is an arrogant response from someone without the credentials to be so dismissive,what makes you think that a change in one parameter means a bigger earthquake is coming.This is a volcanic event,not a seismic one,it just so happens that it is a volcanic event with large amount of seismic energy .Where is the evidence and the data that disproves anything.At least Jon replies in a concise well thought out manner,I have tried to be civil with you but you exercise a double standard of using profanity and just sheer arrogance.I have said all I am going to say on this subject and will just say wait and see.

      2. Where is mike using profanity or being arrogant? His response was fine. The only inappropriate response was you trying to discredit Mike’s credentials and accusing him of being things that he wasn’t.

        You wonder why you were banned from other websites… Just take a chill pill, there is no trophy for being right on the internet, and even if other people are wrong, it’s not the end of the world :).

      3. @Geyser Soze, The caldera is only going to go up if there is more magma added into the magma chamber that is holding it up. When magma is leaving the magma chamber as is now happening the caldera is going to continue to subside.

        It is not complex math and it has been proven by observation. Earthquakes happens due the caldera subsidence, since the rock changes its stress with time and has to adjust to it. This process is also well know from earlier eruptions around the world. While this is the firs time this happens in Iceland in modern times (21st century).

        I also have to ask you to stop make up claims about profanity usage and other things. I do not tolerate such behaviour because it is trolling the comments for an negative reaction. You are getting close to my limit that I want to see on this website.

        So I ask you politely top stop your current behaviour. If you do not stop it. I will add your nickname, email address and IP to the moderate comment settings and I will then review everything you say here in the future.

        Consider your self warned. This is the only warning you are going to get.

      4. Jon the evidence for profanity is posted down the page.As I have said I will voluntarily not comment on your site again,but I had to defend myself against what I consider unfair treatment,I have wasted enough of this comment section with this sort of stuff and will leave.Thankyou

      5. @Geyser Soze, I have never given you an unfair treatment. People react to you as you treat them. So the fault can only be in your own garden, not others.

        What you do elsewhere is none of my business. I do however expect you and others to behave in decent manner (this is not one of those crazy internet forums). You may not approve of that, but that is completely your decision.

        You as any other person have gotten plenty of space here to express your ideas and thoughts. I don’t bother with such things, unless they go the crazy route, then I write about it in the comments or add it to the newest article that I write.

        I welcome everyone to comment here about what is happening in Iceland. What I expect is decent behaviour and no trolling (this is not just attempting to offend people) or attempt to start an flame war. Unfortunately that is what you just did (started to troll the comments) and I gave you a warning for it. You took it as you wanted and that is not my problem.

        Information: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_%28Internet%29

    2. This paper explains how high silica magma forms in rift zones. This paper covers Torfajökull volcano activity and lavas.

      http://www.os.is/gogn/unu-gtp-sc/UNU-GTP-SC-10-1103.pdf

      In short. It takes time, up to 200 years or more to form high silica magma and new basalt magma entering it to start such eruption in Iceland. That is not the case with Bárðarbunga volcano. Since the magma has not had the time needed to cool down and crystallise.

      1. Hi Jon,

        I have been coming here to your page for well, along time now..
        sorry to say i have to leave because of one of your visitors not saying who it is but their first initial starts with a Geyser, and their last starts with a Soze.

        When this guy leaves or untill you e-mail me that they are gone! i wont be back.

      2. Don’t worry Shane,I will voluntarily no longer comment on this blog and apologies to Jon for anything that I have said that somehow affects his blog,but I cannot think for the life what I have done to offend you so much and really I don’t really care what you think.If you are a frequent visitor to this blog surely you come to read what the author of the blog has to say?

      3. Same mode of operation. “gonna leave now” Geeze, where have I seen that before.

        It gets old after a while. Some refer to it as a “one trick pony”

        @Jon, Hi! Nice Rhyolite cooking paper. Thanks!

    2. It looked so much bigger last night. Guess I need more practice reading the drum rolls. Sorry about that.

  8. Badb he used the f word in a comment October 19th 01:49,I copy and paste the line here [ The first warning code, if such a system had existed back then, would have been “Get the FUCK out of there RED!”]

      1. “FUCK” is not an expression of highly dangerous events in Iceland, it’s abuse in whatever context it may be used. Or did I hear IMO call something like that? They wouldn’t I asure you!

    2. Wait, what? I have only posted here once, and wasn’t even online October 19th (was at a wedding). If I did say something profane, could you please send a link to the post?

      I apologize if something did come up or if I’m just being forgetful.

  9. Jon you clearly are very learned, passionate and committed to this subject. What can be done to get you a volcanology job in Iceland? Surely there is room for someone with your skill set? There is something known as RPL -Recognition of Prior Learning – that replaces official specific qualifications. Maybe it’s just a matter of crafting your C.V. and addressing Selection Criteria in the correct manner. Are their readers inside or outside of the Iceland volcanology scene here whom can help Jon with gainful volcanology employment?

  10. “There is no evidence of any eruption taking place inside the caldera so far”

    There won’t be — except for ice melting and the surface of the ice falling. There will not likely be any “evidence” until enough of the ice melts to make it obvious.

  11. Thank you Jon for the informative and entertaining website. On the afternoon of October 17th I was fortunate enough to go on one of the tourist helicopter flights to the eruption site. Here is a link to my images: http://www.babbittphoto.com/p587905437 We spent about 20 to 25 minutes over the vent site and did not travel to the end of the flow or over Bardarbunga.

  13. I really love this blog, keep up the excellent work Jon,i’m glad that cheeky so and so soze has gone.
    He spent much of his time sneakily trying to wind people up and causing distractions from what is going on.
    The professor who thought that the eruption may end about march may be right, the fissure closes down, pressure rises and the main event starts, although main event is probably a poor description.
    I agree with Rachel who said you should have a volcanologists job in Iceland,your talents would be an asset to IMO.

  14. Geyser,

    First, I’ve never used profanity here. I am sometimes strident and a little forceful in my language, but never profane or derogatory. I play the ball, not the man.

    Second, I’m a geologist – not by current occupation, but by training; that’s what my degree is in. And I’m one who has spent a lot of time on volcanoes.

    I don’t expect a lot of respect for that, but I expect some, and some basic credibility. And I use my own real name and link to my own real Twitter profile. I have no idea who, where or what you are.

    1. FWIW, on my passport it states that my occupation is “Minister of Religion”. I have watched your videos with awe (and, as a climber, found some of your abseils pretty harrowing), read your posts here and elsewhere with great interest and I have learned much from them. I have found nothing worthy of taking exception to in your post about what might be said in extremis.

      Why, even the Guardian newspaper prints the F word, and Private Eye the C word too (in reported speech)! I now work as an academic, and the senior common rooms I know would be pretty empty if the F word was banned – though admittedly, it’s used mainly in connection with our government’s higher education policies!

  15. @Mike Ross, as a geologist what would you say was the best way to polish stones, sorry for going off topic, the stones in question are I think “granite” because they have small shiny bits in them? Thanks in advance. Stilton.

    1. Polish to what purpose, Stilton?

      For science, there’s a variety of techniques used, depending on the end result desired – thin section, reflected or transmitted light microscopy etc.

      If you just want pretty stones, I think the usual method is tumble polishing; Google it!

  16. I’d love to see Jon get a full time position on the Iceland Volcanologists team, as well.

    If nothing else, I think he would make a great guy to head the interface with the media and public . . . freeing the professional geologists more to do what they do best and are highly trained for–collecting and interpreting the data. Not that they couldn’t or wouldn’t then talk to the public . . . but they wouldn’t have to feel CONSTANTLY “ON” in front of the cameras or on the net to give endless reports. Jon could relieve them of a lot of that . . . and probably he could relieve them of a lot of inane questions they must get from folks who aren’t quite awake; not quite paying attention . . . or aren’t functioning on all their cylinders.

    I think if I were in their shoes, I’d jump at the chance for someone like Jon to run interference for the scientific heavy-weights the bulk of the time.

    And, such a position would likely put him in a good place to add his insights to their interpretive ponderings as well. Given that NO ONE has a fool-proof handle on what’s REALLY going on . . . Jon’s insights on such a team could be about as valuable as anyone else’s.

    And if money is tight–go back to the EU and ask for another grant . . . or hire Jon half time.

    imho.

    I’d like to cheer Jon on in whatever workable way I can.

    1. Thanks for spotting this error. I thought that I had written 29-August-2014, but my brain lied to me. I have corrected the error. Thanks. 🙂

  18. a little ´bug’ : In the commentary,

    , read 0,9 km3 in place of 0,9 km2.

    Merci pour votre blog de haute tenue et de si grande qualité !

  19. So what it the most likely scenario now? Will it be a long lived fissure eruption? Or Could it fizzle out soon? Is it now vety unlikely that there will be a caldera eruption now that a lot of the magma has drained out into holuhraun? Or is there still a chance of a small one? Sorry my answers seem simple I just haven’t heard a credible source talk about their opinions on how the eruption scenario will play out. I would have thought that opinions would have changed due to how this eruption has actually evolved recently.thanks in advance for responses 🙂

    1. I think the honest answer to all your questions is, “I don’t know.” That’s why you have rarely, if ever, heard a credible source offer their opinion as to what’s likely or not to happen (other than Jon, who always stipulates, “This my opinion only…”). Just enjoy the learning process like the rest of us and thank Jon for all his great work.

      2. In this context it is interesting to read about the volcanic system and how vast it really is with its lengthy NE and SW fissure swarm. Possible eruption scenarios were mentioned based on historical events, the current which is within 50km of the central volcano is rated 1 on each 500 years, possibly moderate to large effusive, see 10:2a.

        http://www.vedur.is/media/jar/Bardarbunga_kafli20140825.pdf

  21. GFZ Potsdam
    Geofon
    Time: 2014-10-21 08:36:40.6 UTC
    Magnitude: 5.4 (ML)
    Epicenter: 17.12°W 64.65°N
    Depth: 10 km
    Status: C – confirmed
    ___

    F-E Region: Iceland
    Time: 2014-10-21 08:34:50.7 UTC
    Magnitude: 4.2
    Epicenter: 17.60°W 64.61°N
    Depth: 10 km
    Status: A – automatic

  22. Tuesday
    21.10.2014 08:36:35 64.694 -17.442 15.6 km 5.3 99.0 7.3 km NE of Bárðarbunga
    Tuesday
    21.10.2014 08:34:47 64.673 -17.458 6.7 km 4.7 99.0 5.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga

    2. It was at 15,3 km depth. That is close to the edge or in the magma chamber (surrounding rock). This might mean that change is about to happen in Bárðarbunga volcano. It is difficult to know until it happens. I guess we have to wait for it to happen.

  27. Great update Jon, as I have said before this is history been made here, and Holuhraun keep setting records. Again nobody knows what is going on at Bards, but it’s sure keeping people alert. And if more magma is still entering the system than is being erupted, A) where is it going and B) how long before it erupts from somewhere else.

  28. Morning Jon, just to say a big thank you for all you do on this site, the first time it came to my attention was when the Katla warnings were first issued, and I have been dropping in ever since, wish I had more time to visit, but do so when I can.
    I fully support your warnings on behavior on this site, I will say no more.

    We are all searching for answers to what might happen in this particular eruption, and although it will follow the laws of nature that does not help too much in interpreting what may happen, because of the many factors involved some unknown. So I will continue to enjoy all the informed comment till we know what the outcome will be, pleased to see the Mila Cam visibility has improved this morning,
    Regards to all

  30. I´d like to thank you Jón for your contribution. Since I discovered this blog, I stop by every day. I don´t currently have the means to support you directly, but from now on at least all my Amazon purchases will be through your site. And I´m glad you are putting a stop to disturbing influences in your comment system, I could sense the atmosphere was stifling in the last few days. Thank you again for your regular informative updates and for keeping this forum open for us interested laymen, with our perhaps naive questions and speculations. I´ve learned more about earthquakes and volcanoes in a few of weeks time than I thought was possible. Keep up the good work.

  31. Jon,

    Sorry if my blather about working on the Iceland volcanologists’ team was not your preference. Not knowing you well, we are left to guess about a lot of things but just want to encourage you and cheer you on. Thanks for all you do.

  32. Since an hour or so almost all tremor plots look very quiet. Baseline noise without big spikes. Looks strange for me, may be some of the specialists here have a simple explanation?

      1. Presumably still going strong, as Mila Bard 1 cam is still showing just as large a plume of fume coming from the vent area as usual.

  33. Have noticed that the larger >= 5.2 eqs are starting to come with > 3 cluster egas rather than just alone. Sounds like something starting to break up.

  34. The fluid movement from Bárðarbunga through the dyke to the east then to the north to the Holuhraun eruption appears similar to a garden hose emptying a huge rain barrell. The lava is hot, well over 800 degrees celsius, and very fluid. If all the erupted lava were stacked on top, instead of spread out over the huge lava plain, it would by now form an impressive new mountain, all in two months. Wow.

      1. Ah, another “collector” 🙂
        I’ve already comie home from wok seeing some nice views…

    2. Tease. Mila cam doesnt work for me … “Polar bear in blzzard” perfect postcard 😀

  36. Previously it was speculated that the magma source for the Holuhraun eruption was not from Bard. Mostly because there was a big EQ gap between Bard caldera and the dyke. However, in these last few days the dots have appeared where the gap once was. So I would say that idea needs to be reconsidered. I think the Holuhraun is a classic dyke eruption coming off Bard.

    1. @James
      I think the depth of the dyke EQs was the original source for speculation. I remember just hours before the first eruption started, the experts claimed that the magma was too deep, so it wouldn´t reach the surface anytime soon. Yet it did. I guess it´s impossible to chart the underground precisely with the current technology.

    2. No, it isn’t from “Bard” because of the chemical analysis. Hasn’t been sitting for a couple of hundred years in a magma chamber mixing with crust and losing gas. It looks like it is from very deep and still contains a lot of water vapor and SO2. Magma that sits for a long period of time in a chamber usually sees a lot of the gas separate out and it picks up silica from the crust. At least that is how I read what has been reported so far. The chemical composition of Holuhraun lava doesn’t exactly match that of either Bárðarbunga or that of Askja.

      http://jardvis.hi.is/efnasamsetning_holuhraunsins_nyja_er_komin

      The mantle plume that feeds these volcanoes is positively huge and can feed several volcanoes though the paths may split at different points.

      1. Magma is coming from mantle into Bardarbunga volcano (deep chambers) and exiting northeastwards through the dike, following the path of the earthquakes since 16th August, where rifting has occurred.

        This magmatic intrusion occurs between 5km deep and 20km deep, so it is both shallow and deep. At Holuhraun it reaches surface and exits there.

        As the magma comes into and out of Bardarbunga it causes the top chambers to empty and sink downwards. This is more or less what the IMO thinks, and I also think the same.

        Magma comes from the mantle and passes through slightly evolved magma at its deepest chambers. So while it is a fresh magma it is not that fresh. Analysis from magma confirms this, as the magma erupted is not as high in Mg as Fimmvorduhals or Laki (which were straight from mantle).

        Judging by the local geology around Holuhraun, this dike eruption could continue for a long time. Trolladynja was an eruption that lasted for years and erupted a total 30km3. Holuhraun is now nearly 2 months old and 1km3, and keeps its pace.

      2. Thanks for that great reference, Crosspatch.

        There are a number of pros and cons, as usual. One comment on the article is that at Holaraun, there are previous lava fields under the new one, likely coming from the same source by the same route, so it is unsurprising that the underlying samples have a similar chemistry.

        The time frame of geology is often greater than hundreds of years. Chemical layering or mixing in a reservoir might, or might not, take thousands of years.

    3. Not quite a ‘classic dyke eruption’ IMHO.

      This is different, and something that’s not been seen in Iceland since Laki; a *regional* dyke eruption. This isn’t a radial dyke straight from the magma chamber, and it isn’t primarily driven by events at the central volcano (intrusion, overpressure, eruption etc). It’s a rifting event driven by the regional stress field.

      1. If I understand this right, you are not implying that – like many state – the magma is leaving in such a quantity a magma chamber under Bárdarbunga and entering the famous dyke that it is causing the subsidence. What in your opinion is then the cause of the subsidence and/ or the earthquakes? BTW, I also still think that the rifting event is the driving force behind all the action.

      2. Mike Ross, there has been at least one and possibly two regional dike eruption since Laki.

        First 1862 from Bardarbunga towards the southwest but not reaching Veidivotn, just shortly outside of the ice cap, near Hamarinn.

        Second 1875, a regional dike from Askja extending 70km northwards forming a long fissure eruption which also caused the caldera to sink (but the eruption was also triggered by another factor, the mix with rhyolite magma).

        Before this, other regional dike eruptions include Vatnaoldur in 870, Edlgjá 934, Veidivotn 1477. Not sure also in 940 in Veidivotn area, and Frambuni near Dyngjojokull area in 1250. The last of which is quite a sizeable lava field, seems larger thn Holuhraun.

      3. Buy yeah, I agree that this is mostly driven by tectonics. Not just a dike, but a regional dike driven by a tectonic rifting event.

        I think we have plenty of evidence showing that.

        However when you say that this event is not driven by the central volcano, hmm, I am skeptical of that. We have seen evidence that events there might have triggered the regional tectonic already on the brink point.

        So, my take is that regional tectonics was on the verge, hotspot pulse caused an intrusion into central volcano and everything just got triggered and on motion since then.

        Evidence? Regional tectonics was showing deep swarms around Dyngjojukull in months before August. In 16th August, a large swarm in central volcano, 1-2 days later, the regional rifting starts.

      4. Must be some fierce corrosion/abrasion/erosion with all that magma flowing along a narrow dyke

      5. When there are numerous causes of all different time frames, as is the case here, it is not possible to nail causation to any one of them. There are long-term events, triggering points and triggering events.

        However, for the sake of simplicity, especially in dealing with the general public and decision-making bodies, it might be useful to single one out. The scientist should always be aware that this is merely a necessity of communication and not of science.

  37. Maybe the Holuhraun eruption has put the volcanoes system out of balance and everything is trying to find an equilibrium again, so maybe the chance of another eruption is not as high as it seems?

  43. Hi, there are quite a few questions about what could happen next. It has been written often by the Icelandic authorities, but with not much details on the volcanology side of view. Following scenarios are possible:
    1: If Baugur fissure vent is continuing like that, we will wittness the build-up of a shield volcano in relatively short time. The extruding lava will build up topography until we have a lava lake which has a rim on all sides. Then it will overflow to all sides and slowly form a circular shield volcanoe like Troelladyngia.

    2: The eruption will slowly die out, not much more will happen, the area will be quieting down.

    3: There will be a small caldera collapse, or just a fissure opening at the rim of the caldera with an eruption similar to Grimsvoetn eruption lately, like Ejafjallajoekull eruption with explosions, ash and Joekulaup flood. Potentially harmfull for people in the area, and restricting flights in Northern Europe.

    4: A large caldera collapse with all the rock, water and ice literally falling into the magma chamber, or a ash-ring-eruption. Both would be catastrophic, with immense volume of ash and gas/vapour explosion/eruption with ignimbrites. Ignimbrites are pyroclastic flows, a mixture of hot ash, gas, rock debri travelling up to 100 km, destroying everything, even travelling over mountaintops. I studied one such rock formation the Carboniferous of eastern Australia, it was 10-12 meters thick, like welded lava, with a radial extend of more than 100 km.

    A large caldera collapse was not yet documented in human time, but is well documented on almost all continents in many rock formations.

    Lets just hope this last scenario won’t happen, as it would have a large regional impact and large world climate cooling impact.

    Would be just nice to have Baugur going on for another couple of month, bubbling away and braking records.

  44. Short beginner questions:

    Degassing:
    As cool water is, as more gas can solved in it (down to 4 °C or to 0 °C?).
    So what’s about magma? Does it degas because it’s getting cooler or only because the gravity force and also the pressure around is falling?

    Hydrostatic presure:
    Every 10 m water down one bar more pressure. If we had a deep ocean down to the earth core, would that be so or would the gravity force go up and up and so the water pressure?

    Magma=liquid=like Water? (the crust is swimming on it like the ice on the Nothpole?)

    Magmatic pressure:
    Every ~3 m magma 1 bar more (liquid stone) pressure?

    Thx for some answers

    1. Because the iPhone on ISS is so light but down here it’s some 0.1 x 9.81m/(s*s) so how much on 100 km down?!? more or less then here?!?

  45. Tuesday
    21.10.2014 19:50:33 64.673 -17.464 2.6 km 4.3 99.0 4.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga

  46. Tuesday
    21.10.2014 19:52:41 64.689 -17.490 10.1 km 3.5 99.0 5.7 km NNE of Bárðarbunga

  47. Something I haven’t seen mentioned, but what does one think about this: Is there a magma chamber forming under Baugur? Now that it has been erupting for a couple months, that could be plausible, right? Maybe the reason why no other eruptive activity has happened further south along the dyke under the glacier?

    Just curious on thoughts.

    1. From wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magma_chamber
      “When the magma cannot find a path upwards it pools into a magma chamber.”
      But the eruption is a “path upwards”, so I don’t think there is building a magma chamber under Baugur. And because of the “hole” in Holuhraun, why should it erupt at the south end of the dyke?

      1. BTW I think there were also some small eruptions to the south under Dyngjujökull, the ice cauldrons would indicate that and as far as I remember they were lined up over the dyke. But these were seemingly very small eruptions and the little vertical dykes feeding them clogged up very soon, so that the easiest way out is now the path to Holuhraun.

      2. The question is also: What are the quantities of the erupting magma in relation to the magma rising and not erupting?

      3. All these volcanoes around this area are in a rift zone. They could have started out as Baugur has, and just kept on erupting, forming a magma chamber as time went on. Iceland is unusual as we get to witness on land what it does on the ocean floor. I know not all rift events will produce a bona fide volcano with its own chamber, but I was just putting out a thought on the possibility.

    2. I really like this idea, because IMHO it would explain why the rift is not progressing northwards. This would be exactly the same effect as A. Gudmundsson describes in his paper “Volcanoes as elastic inclusions”. http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=20898031 I imagine an arrow shot in a swamp … 🙂

      But on the other hand, this dyke goes so deep, it is like a sheet of paper reaching down about 20 km, how should it be possible to form a magma chamber out of that?

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