Posted on by Jón Frímann

Bárðarbunga volcano daily update 22-September-2014

This information is going to get outdated quickly.

Current status in Bárðarbunga volcano at 14:47 UTC

  • The largest earthquake so far is magnitude 4,8 in Bárðarbunga caldera. There is however continued activity in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera so this number is going to change as the day goes on.
  • The eruption in Holuhraun does not show any signs of ending any time soon. The lava field is now around 37 square km in size. It is growing in size every hour. There is no sign of less production of lava coming from the active craters in Holuhraun. The lava field is not getting longer, it is getting wider instead. Since the lava does not have energy to get any further then it already has.
  • There is continued risk of new eruptions in Holuhraun and south of it, including under the glacier.
  • According to Ármann Höskuldsson geologist at University of Iceland both Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption in 2010 (information here, Wikipedia) and Grímsfjall volcano eruption in 2011 (information here, Wikipedia) were smaller then current eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano and connected events.
  • It is expected that eruption is going to start in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera. When is not known.
  • Bárðarbunga volcano caldera continues to subside at the same rate as before, that rate is currently 50cm/day.
  • More magma is flowing into Bárðarbunga volcano from depth (more than 10 km deep source). It is clear that current eruption and earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano is going to continue for months at shortest. This might go on for years at the longest. With minor breaks as often happen in fissure eruptions.
  • On 1-October-2014 the eruption in Holuhraun has been ongoing for one month.

Current status in Bárðarbunga volcano at 20:24 UTC

  • There has not been any major changes since earlier today. At 13:36 UTC a magnitude 4,7 earthquake took place. Other earthquakes so have been smaller.
  • There was (or is) a quiet period for the past few hours. This might be because more magma is flowing into the magma chamber of Bárðarbunga volcano. Increasing the pressure and at the same time creating fewer earthquakes. That might change at any time without warning.

Update at 23:13 UTC

  • The lava field at Holuhraun is now 0.5 km³. It is now the second largest lava field in Iceland during the past 150 years. Only Hekla lava field from 1947 is larger at the moment, it is 0.8 km³ in size. If the Holuhraun eruption continues as it has, it is going to get Hekla lava field size in about two weeks.

If anything new happens I am going to add that information here.

Article updated at 20:25 UTC on 22-September-2014.
Article updated at 23:13 UTC on 22-September-2014.

285 Replies to “Bárðarbunga volcano daily update 22-September-2014”

  1. I think you should also have included that the number of quakes of M3 or over is increasing every day recently, and has now reached 32. Good report though Jon, thanks. I shall be giving another donation next payday.

  2. Thanks for the update Jon. Agree with Treacleminer that the current uptick in EQs >m3 is very noticeable and must increase the risk of further activity.

      1. Thanks Mafl! Are there any theories about the concentration in the northern quadrant … and/or the other clusterings?

  3. Bonjour, j’écris en français , car mon anglais est pauvre. Je suis votre blog depuis des années et je vous félicite pour votre travail. J’ai une question : j’ai lu dernièrement que le volcan Bardarbunga culminait à +/- 2000 mètres d’altitude. Et actuellement il est à environ 1900 mètres . Est-il possible qu’il se soit déjà enfoncé avant les événements d’août 2014 sans faire de bruit? Merci.

    1. Non, mais la modification de la hauteur n’a pas été remarqué jusqu’à la fin de Août quand Bárðarbunga a été mesurée par les scientifiques. (Via Google Translate)

      1. Dear Mr. Frimann, I wrote something here last days, however, after watch some documentaries about the volcano system of Iceland, I ask you my sincere apologies: I don´t know absolutely nothing about it. It seems to me an extremely complex system which is above my understanding. The events in Iceland are something EPIC events. Very strong reactions of nature you are working with, there.
        Thanks for your great work on these updates. My sincerely wishes by a fortunately outcome for present crisis.
        Cheers for everyone
        Geraldo (Brazil)

    2. The measurement of ~2000 meters is for the summit, which lies somewhere along the caldera rim. The 1900 meters (now less than this) is measured within the caldera.

      Google Translate gives: La mesure est d’environ 2000 mètres au sommet, qui se situe sur le bord de la caldeira. Les 1900 mètres (maintenant moins) est mesurée dans la chaudière.

  4. Great update Jon, you are right there is something certainly going on at Bardarbunga, seismic activity has not only picked up but become more regular. Is their anymore on the rift expansion or not.

    1. Dead thrillseekers sooner or later. Do not drive around recklessly in areas with high volcanic gas.

  8. What is the total subsidence in Bárðarbunga to date? Is there an ongoing record of the subsidence? Finally, do you think there’s a “tipping point” beyond which there is no return? Thanks for all your work, but moreover your willingness to share it. I have been enjoying your updates for a few weeks now, and have begun to learn a lot.

  9. Hi All,

    I am impressed by the knowledge available on this blog .
    Thanks Jón for your incredible blog and all the other contributors .
    I think of my Icelandic Scandinavian neighbors .
    I hope all goes well for you.

    1. If you really want more technical information and interaction, http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/ has a much larger technical audience and discussion. It is managed by a group of very talented technical people and their coverage of Barda has been a lot more in-depth. They also are a much more kick back group of fun folks who don’t get upset at every humorous post.

      4. I’m glad you have found a blog that suits you Zyfly. I find this place much better though. The other place has its benifits if you’re in it for a laugh, but the place is, in my eyes, messy and often desinformative. VC is hard to accept once you have some knowledge about for example chemistry. On top of this I find the place misogynic. So… Jon’s posts are what I prefer, clear information and logical statements.

      5. To my mind they both have value. I’ve learned things there I haven’t here. But I find the whole “dragons” thing over there kind of silly and faintly offensive — what Milan Kundera might include in his variations of the “circle dance”. They tolerate humor there, but then seem a lot more controlling in other ways, and seem to revel in that. I’ve just seen too many comment replies that aren’t kind answers to questions but attempts to make the questioner feel small and ignorant. Also Carl’s bragging about having called BB, when I’m sure he was only one of a legion, doesn’t cause one to lend confidence.

        However, he’s written some great articles on the subject, so I’m thankful otherwise.

        One can tell on the other hand when Jón has to put his foot down he always does so regretfully, and he seems to have that kind of expert’s insight which is beyond words even though thoroughly grounded in facts and numbers. Yet he replies even to beginners with courtesy and positive energy, unless they’re trying to hijack the blog for their pseudoscience/religious agendas or just rambling way too much … ahem wot me? no!

        There’s just something about the spirit and focus of this one I prefer.

      7. I read both, but I don’t get so confused here. It is sometimes hard to distinguish the informed & scientific theories from the uninformed & wild speculations bubbling like lava from some.
        Thank you, Jon.

    2. Could be any number of things not related to the volcano. Too noisy for little quakes with no M3+, too noisy with few quakes to manually verify and they’re chilling because it’s not urgent and they only have so many human (who have been doing superhuman levels of work!), equipment down, etc.

      It’s happened before but is usually only noted by the insomniacs.

      1. Every other time it’s happened before, after a couple of hours the “big space with no quakes” gets filled in. For whatever reason, there is sometimes a delay getting the info up on the IMO site. I swear this generation has been spoiled by expecting information to always be instantaneously available, but I digress… 😉

    3. Pressure increase in the magma system from the looks of it. I don’t think it is a good sign. What it means or what the outcome is going to be I don’t know yet. But I am expecting a new eruption once something breaks in the magma system.

  11. Hi All,
    I am impressed by the knowledge available on this blog .
    Thanks Jón for your incredible blog and all the other contributors .
    I think of my Icelandic Scandinavian neighbors .
    I hope all goes well for you.

  14. Has anyone else noticed an increased concentration of deep and shallow earthquakes on the NW flank of the BB caldera and towards Tungnarfellsjokull? Is this a new dike forming? Not a great location given the steep slope (potential for flank collapse?) and small glacier tongues – rather like the N flank of Eyjafjallajokull, actually.

    1. I noticed this some days ago … it seems like a new dike is trying to form on that side of the caldera.

    2. Yes, I did write about to some two or three days ago. I am not sure if the dyke is already there or if it is trying to start forming. The data is confusing at the moment. So I wait and see what happens.

    3. I posted about this the other day. If you look on 3Dbuldge you can see new column of EQ’s branching out from the main BB column at about 7.5km deep. This seemed to be a new feature as it was not there a few days before.

  16. Speaking of the BB GPS, the ten day plot that has now been added shows and incredibly straight gradient!

    2. Down 5 meters since they installed the GPS, and I’m pretty sure it was down 20 when they put it up, though it would be nice to confirm the exact date the “20 m” number was reported. So, ~25 meters total subsidence so far, or about the equivalent of an 8-story building…

      2. IngeB: OK, then we can combine that with the GPS data. It was about 1 m down on the 14th, so that means when the GPS was set up on 12/9, the caldera was already down 22 m. The graph shows the starting point to be 1902,3 meters elevation, meaning that the “original” elevation was around 1924 m.

        Current elevation is 1897,2 or a drop of around 27 m total so far.

      3. so if the rate of 50 cm/day drop of the caldera remains constant, then in within the next 16 – 56 days we will reach the 45m +- 10 “point of no return”

  17. Wow since this started (August 16th) no gap like this has been seen at IMO’s EQ’s chart.
    Very strange not even automatic recordings…

    Awaiting the explanation…since as Bdb Mila 1 shows there is plenty of activity there..

    1. See above. There have been gaps like this that have been backfilled later (on top of routinely adding the manually reviewed big quakes later.

      1. I have missed this gaps therefore…
        Thanks but still I wonder why not even in the automatic plot humh..

        Now awaiting GPS refresh…

        Thanks again!

      2. I have noticed it recently – watching nightly from the US until early AM. Around 00:00 UTC, nothing really happens and then around 06:30 to 07:00 UTC, the EQs get backfilled.

    2. Quake activity does not correspond to eruptive activity. Quakes correspond to fracturing of rock as stress builds. Once a vent is well formed and once there is a relatively free flow of material, quakes will generally lessen or disappear. Harmonic tremor is what is mostly related to flow of magma (think of it as a sound of molten rock flowing through a fissure).

      Quakes tend to happen when there is a change in pressure / stress on the rocks either increasing or decreasing and these rocks move or fracture. As rock gets hotter, it also becomes more plastic and able to deform without breaking. As magma comes from deeper down, it heats the surrounding rock up which can sometimes, under the right conditions, lessen the number of quakes. There can be any number of reasons why the number of quakes increase or decline.

  18. Interesting additional chart on the GPS site giving just the 180 hour averages. I have seen the lack of EQ,s before could just be lack of update, also the sharp rises on the GPS are soon followed by drops of the same magnitude, Think the reasons have been well covered here. Thanks to those bloggers who gave me the info when the Mila site was unavailable, it is back up for me now.
    Great to have all the comments coming in we are all learning as we go on.

    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Bardarb/BARC/

  20. Whatever the reason for the apparent lack of EQ’s, i’m sure something to come will make up for it!

  21. What’s also very interesting that the erupted material has a volume of estimated 0,4 – 0,6 cubickilometers. We have here in Germany a jounalist, graduated in geology (Diplom), who wrote about liters of erupted material. That appears to be a mongering geologist.

  22. There are no earthquakes because the caldera is rising at the moment , more magma is flowing into Bárðarbunga volcano at the moment than is flowing out (pressure is increasing). This is a troubling sign, since current eruption at Holuhraun is not big enough eruption to keep up with the inflow of magma.

    I am expecting new eruption somewhere in Bárðarbunga volcano system soon. How big that eruption is going to be is impossible to know.

  23. 0,4cubic km = 400,000,000,000 of British teaspoons
    (Scottish might count diverse maybe 🙂

    or = 750.000.000 french baguettes

    ….a lot of stuff….in sq km like 39!!like 15 times Luxembourg area…

      1. This seems to happen if you don’t get trough the anti-spam test first time around. I don’t know why that is, I think this might be a bug in WordPress. :-/

  26. low M4 or high M3 quake a few minutes ago

    But the rate of EQ is very low… all lines look flat

  28. Magma up, EQs down, GPS movement, and the IMO folks are so pre-occupied they’re not verifying much off the drumplot…even the M4 is taking quite some time. Interesting times…..

    1. I think they are running out of budget because of this eruption. At least that was the case regarding University of Iceland. So I suspect they are saving on the budget. Plus, there is lunch break at the moment (18:00 – 20:00 UTC?).

      1. can understand that they can’t be checking 24/7 – am quite sure that they will be quickly back reporting if Bardy decides to start fireworks

  29. oh i think there is another big drop at the moment.. perhaps a new bigger quake? Interesting to watch..

  30. Home from work, catching up on the afternoon’s news – I see a further comment about dead birds. I recall that after the 2004 Sumatra earthquake many animals in distant places (areas later hit by the tsunami) displayed unusual or unsettled behaviour, so my question is – are there any reports of unusual behavioural traits – perhaps difficult to understand – being displayed by animals in Iceland – this question could equally apply to wild animals, birds, horses, sheep, rodents or even domestic pets etc. – especially in areas not yet directly affected but nearby.

    1. There are no animals in this part of Iceland. This is a desert in all sense of the word. Not a warm desert, rather cold one with a glacier south of it.

      1. I suspect that the dead birds found must have been migratory birds, because as you say, Jon – nothing lives here.

    3. A lot of the speculation on animal behavior before earthquakes and such things is just that speculation, and such talk has been around for many, many years. Nice article on the topic here: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/11/1111_031111_earthquakeanimals.html and quote “Geologists, however, dismiss these kinds of reports, saying it’s “the psychological focusing effect,” where people remember strange behaviors only after an earthquake or other catastrophe has taken place. If nothing had happened, they contend, people would not have remembered the strange behavio

      1. During a 5.6M earthquake recently our Spaniel raced outside, not afraid, just puzzled – he wanted to attack the monster, but looked very funny where he stood, not sure in which direction (or up) he should chase, while everything shook around him.

  31. It is good that they have now placed the long term time chart . As I have mentioned prior to this is you can see how it goes down in steps as an average, there has been hardly any change in it’s decline. what I have noticed is it has slowed down over the last few days. there are some readings on this chart that don,t make sense to me .I am still pondering over what or how this makes sense.
    Some people say they can see magma flowing into the chamber by the inflation but there is no evidence on the chart. other readings on another chart might give signs but where can I find this. There is something missing that we have not noticed !!

  33. According to FutureVolc, there is a major meeting going on today til Thurs.

    2nd Annual.

    We won’t hear much till after then.

  35. Found these numbers regarding discharge of so2 : 200-600 kg/s SO2
    That’s 17 000 – 52 000 tones of so2 each day.
    How reliable would you say those numbers are? It’s horrible amounts.
    Comparing to the yearly release of ~30 000 tones for my entire home country, Sweden.

    3. And you also inadvertently point out how small most SO2 emissions are from most countries compared to the absolutely massive amounts that a single volcano can produce. Yes, a single volcano can release more in one day than many countries can release in a year. So some small reduction in SO2 emissions at great expense can be completely swamped by a single volcano (or coal seam fire). You accidentally point out how insignificant we really are.

    4. Just curious on how reliable the estimates are…

      Today we are so focused on pollution and how we humans contribute, but with big numbers like this one could argue that it’s ridiculous to waste money on so2 treatment on power plants for example…

      1. Well maybe…but we should nevertheless not forget that fossile energy sources are still limited and we should make an effort to find new solutions of energy sources and more than that: work on energy efficiency.

      2. If you lived downwind of that power plant (or perhaps somewhere like Beijing), you might disagree.

        Also, still not sure how this shows human SO2 production is insignificant. OK, Pinatubo put out 20 million tons… global anthropogenic emissions are around 120 million tons (source: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/1101/2011/acp-11-1101-2011.pdf). And that is being produced each and every year. How often is there an eruption as large as Pinatubo…?

  39. While animal behavior around large earthquakes becomes speculative talk, all is not speculation, the behavior of the waterfowl on Hebgen Lake near West Yellowstone Montana on the afternoon of Monday, August 17th, 1959 was noted by the local deputies on their way back, noticeable, because the waterfowl had disappeared around 2 pm that afternoon. At 11:37 pm local time, the 7.3 quake hit, which awoke me up, inLaurel Montana. So not all animal behavior is selective remembrance. Another episode is the jumping of the koi fish in the big Island of Hawaii, a few minutes before the Sunday October 15 7:07:49 AM local time mag 6.7 quake hit which the locals thought was interesting, until the quake hit.

    However this is a sidetrack and I wish to ask Jon a question, as I am confused. He writes “There are no earthquakes because the caldera is rising at the moment , more magma is flowing into Bárðarbunga volcano at the moment than is flowing out (pressure is increasing).”

    My question – “How do you know that the caldera is rising? I am seeing GPS measurements showing that it is dropping.”

    I would like to have Jon explain a bit more about this, since I am confused.

    Thank you.

    1. There are spikes of uplift taking place, while the whole caldera is lowering. It happens at times. It doesn’t happen often, but sometimes. It happens because new magma is flowing into Bárðarbunga volcano from depth and not enough of it is currently erupting out in Holuhraun.

  40. One by one a scattering of earthquakes and a few big ones have been added in to the time that IMO previously displayed nothing in.

    1. Yes, regarding CO2, once I calculated that Pinatubo was similar to mankind the 1 day output of all cities and all industries of the world. So that year, mankind released 365 times more CO2 than the VEI6 eruption of Pinatubo.

      Obviously mankind releases a lot more CO2 than volcanoes!

      2. crosspatch, close to a million people worldwide marched yesterday because they see it differently. Including large numbers of scientists.

    1. As I understand, in this chart what peaks is CO2 and Metane…

      If it peaks on Monday might be normal though…

      Thanks for re-checking.

      1. you’re not looking at the right plot.

        go to Luftschadstoffe

        spike > 20,000 ppb
        vs.
        previous days avg of near 0

  43. A prediction. But caveat: this is purely play with maths. Do not take this very serious.

    Subsidience in the caldera is pretty much constant, but slightly declining.
    16 Aug- 14 Sept, 20m subsidience in 28 days, average 71cm per day
    14-22 Sept: 5m subsidience in 8 days, average 62cm per day

    We see a gradual slow-down of the subsidience rate. I will try to estimate when it stops:

    third week Aug 78 cm /day
    last week Aug 74 cm /day
    first week Sept 70cm /day
    second week week Sept 66cm /day
    third week Sept 62cm /day, total cumulative 25 meters
    last week Sept 58 cm /day, total cumulative 30 meters
    weeks in Oct rate goes from 54 cm/day to 42cm/day, total cumulative 44 meters
    weeks in Nov, rates goes from 38cm/day to 26cm/day, total cumulative 54 meters
    weeks in Dec, rates goes from 22cm/day to 10cm/day, total cumulative 59 meters
    weeks in Jan, rates slows to nearly zero, total cumulative subsidience 61 meters

    At this gradually declining rate, assuming if does not change, we will reach 50 meters of subsidience in November but then subsidience stops sometime in January next year, at around a total cumulative of 60 meters.

    Eruption at Holuhraun would likely stop by then.

    We now have 0.5 km3, and rate is around 0.3km3/month but declining. At this rate, we will get to 0.8-1 km3 by November, and the eruption will finalize at slightly more than 1km3. Which will be a small shield volcano of that 1 km3 volume.

    I am obvious ignoring any change and any other variable in the system. Which simply doesn’t correspond to reality. But if system keeps its pace, no change occuring, then this is more or less the scale of the Holuhraun eruption we can expect, and also of the subsidience.

    Jon, any new calculation on point of no return?

    1. My early maths suggest that new point of return is around 55 – 75 meters at present. I haven’t finished checking and refining my calculations yet. The caldera is going to stay up for as long there is magma below to support it. The risk is that magma is going to find a weak spot in the caldera rim and rush out with a force. This has happened in the past in other volcanoes.

      Here is a good video on how caldera formation takes place. The video is from USGS.

      http://youtu.be/BBGmXsZHInw

      4. Ice is .93g/cm3 versus 1g/cm3 with water. So take dimensions of caldera, assume it cannot be compressed beyond 1g/cm3 no matter what because that is water and compute volume, then convert to weight.

        1 million cubic cm in one cubic meter.

        Each cubic meter of water is one metric ton.

        Each cubic kilometer is one billion metric tons.

      5. I came across this article about a scientist who studies when lava meets water and ice. They mentioned Bárðarbunga, specifically (article is dated 20/08/14). His estimate is 60,000,000,000,000 pounds, which I think translates to over 27 billion Metric Tons – interesting.

        What then happens to the mountain and crust when all that weight is gone? I have recently read other articles about how the weight of glaciers pushes the crust down into the mantle.

        http://www.popsci.com/article/science/what-happens-when-volcano-erupts-under-glacier

    2. Does anyone know the normal rate at which the ice declines in the summer season before it begins to increase again because of new snow? Every year it will increase in altitude as it accumulates new snow and then it will decline once the snows are finished as rain and compression from weight compact the glacier and it melts.

      So part of this decline in altitude is normal for this time of year, we just don’t know what the normal rate of decline is to know what the delta is. A foot a day doesn’t seem all that unreasonable when it is warm or raining.

      1. Well, none of the ice outside of the caldera (except for the ice cauldrons) has measureably declined, so that should be your baseline for comparison.

    1. I agree — it definitely has shown no signs of weakening yet. And now the lava rivers are flowing out in all directions, not just towards the left (NE).

      1. I agree too. It looks wider and more intense.
        Looks like the walls of the crater are growing fast…(+100mts?)

        In response to different theories, I would like to add mine:

        As Holuhraun is intensifying, a crater is growing there. This will be “the hotspot” for the eruption “all time”, and will lead to a new caldera formation and will do the land to get higher, so Vatnajokull glacier can continue it’s expansion, as Iceland expands too.

        All magma-lava in one hotspot and continued for 2-4 years= new caldera of 1000mts height? One winter cooling and this new piece will get connected with the ice, to main glacier.

        In this theory, BdB might not erupt as the “cork” is a very thick hardened magma from very intense past eruptions, under much pressure…to hard material if compared to the ongoing fissure.

        Thanks for considering.

  46. Hey,
    The eruption looks great tonight and a few thoughts from me!
    Treacleminer….you speak….I listen (magma=treacle)
    ScotsJohn….I’m with you man ! (I reckon you voted yes in the referendum?)
    Irpsit….you like your numbers (are you a mathematician?)
    Wial….During an earthquake a brick wall hit you….(how cool is that)
    Crosspatch….if you were a superhero you would be “Vibrationman”, and respect!
    Bardarbooom….Why didnt I think of that ! (“David from Folkestone” is so boring)
    Zyfly…get your own blog.

    The bottom line is…… “Jon”
    Good guy and passionate about what he does. There could of been a 100 “Jon’s” going forwards in time, but Bardabunga is happening now, right now in 2014. Many “Jon’s” could have come and gone but we are all witnessing an historic event and in centuries to come, they will be using this data to assist in forecasting future eruptions.

    And yes, Iv’e been to the pub tonight…please feel free to comment.
    Yours sincerely….David (amateur volcanologist)

  47. scientist who depend on government individuals (with an agenda) to fund them and any scientist who really is a scientist knows and will tell you that atmospheric CO2 rises ONLY AFTER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS WARMED! AND NASA reports that the worlds average temp has actually FALLEN since 1997 . Great work Jon…sorry for off topic but can not let the individual that is in the dark not be enlightened !!go to WUWT site !!

    1. I am going to end this right now. The planet is getting warmer on average. It has been proven. We are still going to get snow since we are not yet out of ice age.

      More details can be found here. Please don’t bring this topic up again. This applies to anyone. I will direct anyone to this comment in the future.

      http://youtu.be/OWXoRSIxyIU

      2. Jon, thank you for being the voice of reason.

        I have been viewing the activity here ever since I heard about the beginnings of increasing earthquakes back in August. Being that I am not educated in this field I felt I had little to add to the conversation. I have however always been extremely fascinated with geology in general, especially as it relates to volcanoes and earthquakes. Thank you so much for providing this venue to share information and ideas. I also used to moderate a web forum Jon, so I know what it is with which you are dealing. I always disliked the evil clowns, attacking for their own enjoyment. Cheers to all!

      3. More on this subject:

        http://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/nr/2989

        The Icelandic weather forecast in 2050 could look something like this:

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojzKfj4_Alg&feature=youtu.be

        This is not good news for you Jon if you plan to go back, as more potential dangerous insects like the Tick will be introduced.

        But on the other hand, birds like the godwit will come to Iceland to breed. Last season there was already a perky one who settled in the north near Akureyri according to the GPS tracking.

      1. please stick to current situation which could make shills outta all of us if/most likely Jon’s meticulous/untiring work comes to be…God help us if it does ! Now, I live in the mountains of Idaho just a stone throw from Yellowstone ! Very beautiful and I invest heavily in keeping it this way. But, fact, at huge swingding in California earlier this year for climate change (former global warming) biggest contributors were BP & Exxon…why ,cause soon natural gas will produce more electricity in US than coal. They pay big bucks against coal and they donate tons of cash to Greenpeace and climate change groups…and to several of my groups, Yellowstone Coalition and Snake River Conservation Committee. They are like any other corporations … the good, the bad, the ugly!

      2. I know Anthony from WUWT, he receives NO money from big oil and gas…yet as you can see from my other reply there are those who do…and I am glad we do!!

  48. Just another hypothesis, probably it is not really new:
    The “sinking” of the glacier surface seen in GPS signals
    is due to melting of the glacier and formation of a subglacial lake.
    Volumes may be estimated by different densities of water and ice.
    EQs are shaking the ice to follow the water surface.

    Think of a big steam cooker with walls of rock and mud,
    covered with ice which is increasingly melting
    due to a heating below the pot.

    It will be a matter of heating rates and water and ice volumes
    until the water pressure might be able to cause a break through the side walls
    of the “cooker”, followed by a glacier flood.

    Having a look at the map with the restricted area north of bb,
    this might be one scenario considered by authorities.

    1. It’s possible, but they also have been flying ground penetrating radar runs that can see the actual crust subsiding, and they can surmise by analyzing the data from a lot of different seismic stations that pick up the larger earthquakes that the earthquakes are due to a downward motion.

      Is there any evidence of melting ice in the caldera, does anyone know? I know subglacial lakes have been detected by radar on Greenland and Antarctica.

  49. With the autumnal equinox past now, it is certain that snows are just around the corner in the Highlands of Iceland. I’m curious whether any portions of the new lave field at Holuhraun will cool enough to allow any snow cover this coming winter. I suspect not, but would like to hear what others think.

    1. How much snow falls in this area during winter month’s , Mr. Frimann? If substantial, could interaction with hot lava cause ash fall locally?

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