This is a short article. It might get outdated quickly.
Around midnight of 9. November 2023 an strong earthquake started close to Þorbjörn mountain, in the same area that has been having an earthquake and dyke intrusion since 25. October 2023. At the writing of this article, the largest earthquake had a magnitude of Mw5,0 and with a lot of smaller earthquakes taking place.
It is unclear if this earthquake activity is the start of the eruption or just normal inflation related earthquake activity. The magma is still at depth of 5 km. If it has started to move upwards trough the crust, it is going to take several hours to reach the surface. That means nothing might happen on the surface until late tomorrow or on 10. November at the earliest. Depending on how quickly the magma goes up through the crust.
I’ll post updates tomorrow if anything more happens.
As of today the Blue Lagoon has been temporarily closed due to the earthquake activity.
Link: https://www.bluelagoon.com/seismic-activity?_gl=1*15vcb2l*_up*MQ..&gclid=Cj0KCQiAo7KqBhDhARIsAKhZ4uibyZZqujA55GDSMK0HGXCP1O5HDkneX6u0rB13enggCUa232u3fWMaAmLzEALw_wcB