Posted on by Jón Frímann

Increased eruption activity in El Hierro volcano

I was going to post this yesterday. But I fell a sleep at 17:00 UTC and I didn’t wake up until 03:00 UTC.
*******

The eruption in El Hierro volcano continues as it has been doing for past few weeks with little change. The first eruption vent that did open south of El Hierro Island has continued to erupt. But so far no Island has formed and it is unclear if it is going to form, as the depth is great in this area. Since yesterday around 06:00 UTC the harmonic tremor has been increasing. But this suggests that new vents have opened up in the south eruption area. I got some pictures of that yesterday in the email. But they did not show anything new in my view. Thanks to the readers how did send me those pictures.

The current fluctuation in the harmonic tremor from El Hierro suggests that magma is on the move in the north part of El Hierro Island. Both off the coast and maybe inland on the Island where earthquakes have been taking place. It is impossible to know how this is going to develop during the next few hours to days. As that depends on the rock structure of El Hierro Island and earlier eruptions.

Earthquake activity

During the past two weeks the earthquake activity have been growing in the North-west part of El Hierro Island. The reason why this is happening is that a new fissure is about to open in this area. As I have mentioned before in earlier blog posts. When and where is impossible to know for sure. The largest earthquake so far took place this morning, it size was ML4.0 with the depth of 20 km. But this is the automatic data from IGN. This pattern of earthquake activity is most likely going to continue during this eruption process in El Hierro volcano. Since the eruption type here is a fissure eruption.

It is worth noting that earthquakes in once place does not mean that the eruption is going to happen in that place. As the magma can travel in dikes all over the El Hierro Island and show it self anywhere on the Island it self. So the general risk is high in my opinion. The only action that can be taken is to be prepared for sudden eruption of new vents on El Hierro Island. Since there is a good amount of magma on the move inside El Hierro volcano.


The harmonic tremor in El Hierro at 08:54 UTC (when picture is saved). The spikes are earthquakes, and harmonic tremor spikes are the “waves” in the harmonic tremor pattern. Copyright of this picture belongs to Instituto Geográfico Nacional.

Update 1:

* When I wrote this blog post. This two earthquakes took place.

1109584 02/11/2011 08:37:11 27.9267 -18.1084 3 1.7 mbLg NW FRONTERA.IHI
1109582 02/11/2011 08:36:00 27.5986 -17.9594 1 1.9 mbLg S EL PINAR.IHI

This are the most shallow earthquakes that I have seen so far. From the depth it is possible a magma has found a clean path to surface in this two areas. Sadly there is no map. So I am not sure where this earthquakes took place in El Hierro volcano.

Update 1b: The earthquake have been revised. Now the depth is 9 km for the ML1.7 and 22km for the ML1.9.

The shallow earthquake.

1109584 02/11/2011 08:37:11 27.9304 -18.1107 9 1.7 mbLg NW FRONTERA.IHI [+]

I am going to post more information when I know more on what is taking place in El Hierro.

Blog post updated at 11:24 UTC on 2 November, 2011

1,078 Replies to “Increased eruption activity in El Hierro volcano”

    1. somethings gotta give soon, i can’t imagine 2-3 more days of this and no new eruption or increased eruption strength at little-BOB

      1. I just contacted one the locals on the island and they said they can feel the ground pretty much continuously shaking on the West side.

        I agree, thats a lot of stuff there and it looks worse than Redoubt did. It would help if we knew how much the seismo set for. Cut out the 1-3’s and I think we might be a lot more scared than we are now.

        Really, we are just waiting for the inevitable. Jonny Frimann called this one. I think though its going to be an explosive eruption. It will exploit some little hole and it will come out like a torch cutting through metal.

  2. I would like to know what the guidelines are for participation on this website. My most innocent posts where I try to contribute are apparently edited out. I am not a member of any scaremongering site, I haven’t posted anything offensive, and the one and only link I left was deleted. It was not to any false science site.

    So, I take it that outside postings are not wanted. For the record, could you explain what the criteria are for posts, links, and comments.

    Thank you for your time. An interesting blog, which I found useful for pulling together a variety of information from different sites, and learning how to read the gra;phs. And a good laugh.

    Oh, well. While I know THIS comment is unscientific, I will still say that I will pray for El Hierro. Watching from afar…

    1. Betty, are you sure? Jon is likely not editing your stuff out. Are you getting parts of it cut or the whole thing, or is that perception of cutting.

    2. As far as I know, unless you are trying to link to a scare site, or are constantly yammering about the “endo-d-world” Jon leaves the posts alone.

      We may jump on you if it has to do with some solar misfit idea, but for the most part pretty much anything constructive is welcome. Even wishes of wellness.

    3. Jon is very kind. I often post senseless jokes (no harmful stuff of course) and love the friendly banter. He sometimes kindly reminds us we’re here to talk about volcanoes, but to me always seemed very “cool” if it’s not 2012ing (what besides is very appreciated). I have no time for a lot of research and felt the motivation to begin posting exactly because I “felt” that Jon gives some room or freedom next to the pure science.

    4. Hello Betty,
      the only possibility I can think of is that you typed your email address wrongly; is has to be a valid address. And this comment of yours appeared here, so it seems the problem is already solved.
      Welcome!

    5. Hello Betty!

      I think that you posted in a thread that was edited out, but it was not due to you. Sometimes Jón have to edit away an entire thread because it becomes very confusing if he only edits away the offending one.
      What also could have happened is that you got caught in the spam-filter for som reason. I will try to give the few informal rules that are here. Please Jón, correct me if I am wrong.
      Spam-filtering (Jón releases those as soon as he can)
      1. Use a correct e-mail.
      2. Use a maximum of 3 links in 1 post.

      Deletion (can happen to all of us if the post is in a thread that started with scaremongering, scaremongering links are posted, or the content is conspiracy theorist in nature.
      Very rude language can also be edited away.

      Otherwise the level is very high here. We are sometimes arguing hard, telling very very weird jokes, bantering goes on. To be honest, we are a rowdy and friendly crowd that sometimes argue and Jón is a very gracious host.
      But I know I have seen your posts Betty, so I would guess that for some reason you got caught in either the spam-filter, or had posted in a deleted thread.

    6. If I edit or remove comment. I leave a note on it. None of your comments are in the spam box (it happens sometimes).

      Other then that. None of your comments have been touched by me from what I can remember.

  3. Ran out of sheep to count! So rather than toss and turn, you have all kept me laughing reading this lot. Hope you shleep well.

    Looks like a fairly strong harmonic under Esk. Katla reminding us that she is still brewing some fireworks.

    1. Probably nothing to see there.

      When you are around a body of water all the time you could really care less what it looks like unless something odd is out there.

    1. Ya know… with the fact that they are now hiding their “transparency” behind passwords… playing the fiefdom game… and the the apparent “chugging” that is going on in the CHIE spectrograph…

      I think somebody is seriously horked and they are just now beginning to realize it.

      I sincerely hope that I’m wrong.

      1. A note of explanation since my colloquialism may be lost on some people.

        “Chugging” comes from being around steam systems. When the high pressure vapor flow encounters an obstruction… usually an accumulation of fluid or such, the pressure builds until it forces the obstruction out of the way.

        Old steam locomotives made this sound as the steam drove the piston back and forth. Hence the term “chug.”

        If you will take a gander at the spectrogram… you will note that it’s starting to do periodic bursts in the low end spectrum. That’s the chugging I am referring to.

        It could be anything causing it. But it it’s the magma momentarily increasing its viscosity … either through chemical changes in the gas make up or elongated bubbles in the magma…

        … well, eventually it won’t be able to simple force it’s way past.

        Things could get very dynamic very fast.

      3. Very clear and enlightening graph, Lurking.
        Thanks.
        Hope they realize by now that it’s time to take concrete precautions. There’s lot of people at risk and many possible outcomes.

      4. Really looks like the system is struggeling with the “management” of the pressure.
        I never had a particular interest for the region there, hence it’s difficult to make up my mind about the potentials of these canary volcanoes. But I appreciate to realize that I make up a multitude of scenarios in my head, without having the ability to use the info we get by the tremors and eq’s to really get a precise idea of what is actually happening. Extremely nice lesson of humility.

      5. I had been watching the increase in the frequency of these bursts over the last day and had wondered about the cause. Thank you for explaining it. What you say makes a lot of sense.
        I do worry about the people living in the area. Does anyone know whether people are moving to safer areas now, rather than waiting for an official warning which may not come in time.

      6. The chugging frequency is increasing… I suspect we’ll see some “new phenomena” emerging at El Hierro today, or tomorrow at the latest.

      7. Thanks Lurking – for a ‘visual’ person like me your graphs make it far clearer to understand how things are evolving.

      8. It looks more like they were caught out by the level of interest in the site. So probably a few lessons to be learned for the future.

        Stuff was published on the site too quickly without thinking it through. Because you had to dig to get data which could have easily been published direct to a page.

        Hope they can get a more transparent web page soon. But the safety of the people on El Hierro is a bigger priority right now.

  8. Quake at Katla
    Thursday 03.11.2011
    05:35:57
    63.640 -19.065
    1.1 km
    2.7
    90.04
    6.9 km NNE of Hábunga

  9. Just because I’m curious, nothing that matters at all. We have several cultures and languages represented hers. I was just wondering (who knows, for traduction of news in future events), avons nous des francophones parmi cette joyeuse équipe? Nebo tu máme i česky mluvící?

    2. Je suis français de nature. Je peux t’expliquer.

      I’m French in nature. I can explain you 😉

      3. Nonnon, c’est bon. Je voulais en fait juste savoir si on était plusieurs francophones. Disons qu’avec ton pseudo, je me doutais que c’était une possbilité… 🙂

      2. మనం చాలా టగలాగ్ చేయవచ్చు భావిస్తున్నాను …

        na tunaweza kunywa kahawa katika Khi’Swahili pia.

        I think we can do this in Tagalog to…

        and we can drink coffee in Khi’Swahili too.

      4. I’d say you actually speak the one no one can read, would wonderfully match you… 🙂

        Pretty cool. When we help eachother on this blog, we can gather pretty much info.

      5. Sorry GeoLoco to disappoint you, but I am fluent in Khi’Swahili. The worlds only language that is actually named “The Language”.
        Long story about why I speak it, but she was very beautifull and ran very fast… 🙂

      8. I can manage reading english, french, german, and I mostly get by in spanish, italian, portuguese and to a lesser extent welsh and then any other germanic/latin based languages. And I’m quite good at giggle 🙂

      9. Edward, Edward, Edward. Now you’re showing off. Even more than Carl and Loco. Tssssss. Ok, your’s is the longest, I bow in humble respect… 🙂

  10. Good morning
    Reading around I get the picture that western end of El Hierro is not a comfortable place to be. On AVCAN facebook the comments to their posts are enlightening. Calls to any people with symptoms of dizziness or breathing problems, and anyone who can smell “Bad smells” are to call 112 immediately.One posts mention “a roller coaster sensation” those quakes are really being felt now. I guess that it would make sense not to erect their shelters for evacuees yet until the location and nature of the beast is known. What a dreadful situation it is. 🙁
    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Actualidad-Volc%C3%A1nica-de-Canarias-AVCAN/163883668446

    1. Hi Diana,
      A friend, silent reader, told me you asked me something about tunnels / rockfall. I didn’t see it as I’m not always regular in my peering in. Do you still have a question linked to this topic? I’m glad if I can make a less bubbly contributon for a change… 🙂

      1. Ah! Under the circumstances I was concerned about the strength of the tunnel from Frontera to the East side of the island. I do not wish to be alarmist, but there seems to be little supporting structures within the tunnel. I understand arches and tunnels can be very stable structures but given the type of rock ( I believe youngish volcanic deposits) I was wondering if you had any observations.If you do not wish to make comment at this time that is fine and understandable. Just watch this video please. There are several of the same tunnel on you tube, but this one shows the water that percolates through the rocks.
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUE1g2FmA-M

      2. GeoLoco if you wish to answer this directly to me do feel free to as Jon for my email address. Thank you 🙂

      3. No no, I’m not going to expose myself that much on that issue. Althoug I won’t allow myself completely bubbling around. I just go for a little, harmless comment in 2 steps.

        1 Evacuation
        I have no clue what the evacuation plans look like. Just one thought about that (might be for nothing because normally the specialists there are should not be “crétins”). I would NEVER support the idea to count on a tunnel like this as a path for an evacuation. In the emergency case, you sure don’t want to stuff hundreds of anxious people in a narrow tube. The smallest problem inside there and you are nothing but in hell. Don’t dream of getting them easily out. Plan with whatever the kind of boats and helicopters. Basta.

        2 Stability of the tunnel
        I wouldn’t be much of a pro if I started commenting on the stability issue with the little knowledge I have about de detailed geological profile of this tunnel. Geology is a science (yes guys, it is! ), and we don’t have magic sticks (even if we all hope the women in our life would be ready to say so – sorry for that, I’m weak in front of the opportunity to make a bad joke…) Let’s say they all did their job well and everything was correctly analysed – you can have a simple tube inside a rocky massive that doesn’t collapse that easily even by quite a shaking if there’s no “dramatic” structural context (depends of orientation of discontinuities like fractures, fissures etc.). The water doesn’t really impress me. When you chose to make your tunnel without “waterproof sealing around” (don’t have the english terms for all that technical stuff), well then of course you’ll have the water that normally seeks it’s way through the rock appearing in the tunnel. That is nothing exeptional, and is not representative of some particular weakness of the infrastructure. Just the consequence of a technical choice about the kind of tunnel you want to build.
        Nevertheless, the entry/exit areas always are a problem. There you have the walls, and the rock is exposed to weathering and the action of roots or animals, and the dislocated blocks can build up some respectable energy on their way to the road. From the video you linked, I can’t recognise any kind of trustworthy protective structures in this areas. So it sure is no bad thing to have the copilot watching upwards if it shakes when you drive on this part of the road. Sometimes we just have to learn to live with the risk… Erm…

        Very short comment, based on very little reflection an knowledge of the local context. But as for me the tunnel is no element for evacuation plans and though on little interest for the management of the crisis, I also don’t really worry about that. My concern here really is about the unknown explosive potentials of the Bob family, and explosive volcanism that close to habitations can never be a nice thing…

    2. I am afraid that their refugee camps are not going to be adequate to whats likely coming. If there is a major eruption then it will blow through the 10,000 foot barrier. The winds are normally from the NE to NW in some manner year round. But as it crosses over 10,000 feet the winds shift to more from the west and then southwest. If the ash is lifted it will end up on top of those towns like La Puntas and they will have a Vesuvius moment. It also would/will prevent most likely any real evacuations. No planes due to ash, no boats due to ash loading them and making them top heavy. Rolled over from ash.

      The power of this thing is really beginning to rise to some astounding levels- 4.3 and up to 4.5 without an eruption ?

      Lurk has noted that there may be sediments that could have coal or at least hydrocarbons in them. Methane Hydrate? If that gets heated up and then gets exposed to air then it wont be a load of green with a brown stain in the middle.

      I think we are seeing history being made here. I for one would set up the webcams, and then hit the dusty trail while the getting is good. IMO I think this thing is being minimized now to the point of questionable safety. They should evacuate.

      Here are the upper level winds for today…..

      http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/EURNOGAPS_0z/f54.gif

      If it blows into the above 10000 feet level then it will suck it right into the lower EU.

      1. With its geologic history, I don’t think there would be any methane hydrates. At least none from before it’s last major event.

        The possible hydrocarbon stuff? Yeah, I think its there in the sediment.

      2. Thank you GeoLoco. I am beginning to have more faith in my own observations and judgements. Re Geologists, I will always remember a star lit night on the beach at Algeciras and listening to a wonderful description of the geology of Gibraltar and North Africa (Sigh)…….. My father didn’t believe that was all the handsome young geologist and I talked about either. 🙂

  11. Sadly, Randolph, I have to agree with you – a couple of 12km quakes inland, suggest that things are close to the ‘quiet zone’ at 8km and if Baby Bob was anything to go by, it isn’t long to surface. There have been a couple of drops in amplitude this morning, so something may have given somewhere.

    I hope the people of El Hierro will have had clear warning of what to do and where to go when it happens.

    1. I have seen no mention anywhere of any official direction in that regard. Based on Lurkings plot, I would presume that the ‘safest’ areas would be any of the island that is currently green i.e the east?

    1. Hi guys!
      Yap, that’s the explanation.
      On the other hand, although I didn’t write comments lately I follow up on daily/hourly basis the situation.
      I cross check the Geolurking plots, differential latest 3. The inflating point migrate from La Resigna toward El Golfo and increase in the same time.
      With all this accumulated energy I don’t give many days to a breaking point.
      Now that’s depend of a lot of “of”-s, but yet of course nobody can predict something.
      All that chugging remind me of the sound of a thirsty drunker. Beer one from Oktoberfest 😀
      I bet that its belly is not so large and of course I have no idea how will act in case of deep handover.

      1. 😀 handover, hangover whatta heck ! Sometime, somehow the situation will have and end point.
        I suppose that THIS prediction is a legal one 😛

  13. GeoLoco if you wish to answer this directly to me do feel free to ask Jon for my email address. Thank you 🙂

      2. Shhhhh! I told my husband I need to go to Iceland one day for serious collection of facts about a paper I want to write about the effect of Volcanoes on ancient Nordic Customs… he knows nothing about parties 🙂

  14. At AVCAN the discussion speculates about the possibility of the pattern of tremors being influenced by the high waves.
    In fact, there is currently a “rough sea” advisory in the region, and, given the regularity of the variations, I wouldn’t rule out that possibility.
    After all, we have seen it happening in Iceland many times before.
    Still, there’s Lurking’s graph to give us much reason for concern.
    Must go to work now.
    Have a nice day, you all. 🙂

    1. Renato , I would have thought rough seas would affect the other seismograms as well as this one showing the extremely high tremors, so I personally would discount the idea of the sea having any great impact on the rise.

    1. Professor Torrente strike back, read and love the dude. This was the softest and nicest version of saying “You lying bastards” about PEVOLCAs report yesterday. For those who know science this is a deathblow to a career, and you bet it is not Torrentes career that are on the line here.
      Translation:
      Accustomed to the conflicting views that happen at certain times (not all) to which we subject since the beginning of the seismic-volcanic crisis, now this kind of”war”has gone to scientists. And how could it be otherwise, each one handles a different report on the composition of the pyroclastic found in waters of La Restinga.

      Since this crisis reached its highest level of concern, we have witnessed the eruption confirmed in the morning, afternoon and disproved again confirmed in the evening.

      We are told one day that “no warning signs that anticipate an impending eruption Border” for the next day, not to dismiss an eruption in the north of the island. We have closed the tunnel at the risk of landslides by earthquakes (now open and we have experienced two earthquakes of more than 4 degrees and countless ways by the population of 3 or greater in magnitude and intensity). And La Restinga is on red alert with a volcano expelling magma a few kilometers from the coast. In The Gulf (on yellow alert as the rest of the island), seismic activity is increased while its inhabitants do not know what to do and what is really happening. More Army troops arrive to the island and the Red Cross warns that they are on alert and well “ad infinitum”.

      Yesterday morning DAILY IRON published a report prepared by Professor of Petrology and Geochemistry, University of Barcelona, ​​Sunday Gimeno Torrente, where, according to the tests, ensured that the pyroclastic found in waters of La Restinga provide “clear evidence of a greater explosive potential, so far not mentioned publicly by anyone. ”

      The professor added in his report that this material “does not exhibit the characteristics of a surtseyano like rash, which is the stage repeatedly proposed by the scientific monitoring committee.”

      Among other things, this professor at the University of Barcelona, ​​complained that “it has underestimated the potential explosive.” “They have drawn all the time surtseyano volcanism hypothesis (all 4 phases), trivializing its potential explosiveness (10 hours of beautiful white column before anything happens), and before that an effusive volcanism hypothesis (lava, non-explosive ) deeper, and indeed since the surface began to appear in the pyroclastic should have understood that it was explosive submarine eruption and a different type, and if, moreover, implied magma mixing was potentially much more dangerous, and rhyolitic magma even if it meant more, “said Gimeno.

      Following the publication of this report, only a few hours sufficed for the Pevolca issue a press release saying the opposite that Professor Gimeno. According to CSIC scientists who are part of the scientific committee of the Civil Protection Plan for Volcanic Risk (Pevolca) against the report by Professor of Petrology and Geochemistry, University of Barcelona, ​​Sunday Gimeno Torrente (published by DAILY THE IRON), CSIC scientists argue that the fragments are formed by a magma mixing between two materials, one black (basalt) and one white (trachyte), which occurred at the time of the eruption so it is a mixture physics between the two materials but the two have been chemical reaction.

      According to scientists, these trachytes “are volumetrically insignificant and constitute more than an anecdote that the main feature of the eruption.” “In reality, the samples have been collected along these days, the trachyte was only present in the first few episodes as a ratio of 1 to 10 with respect to the basalt, which does not involved in determining the resulting type of eruption. ”

      That is, on one side some reports prepared by a professor at the University of Barcelona (made by self-interest of the teacher) argue that the fragments are typical of a major explosion and, on the other CSIC members tell us that “are a story. ” Yes, but no. Maybe, maybe. There may be a rash or not, may be explosive or maybe not …

      The truth is that regardless of reports to manage scientists or others, just off the news in DAILY IRON outcomes assessment in the pyroclastic by the CSIC seem to have precipitated and what is not said in weeks, has come to light only a few hours, rather, on the other hand, that is appreciated in these times of limited information.

      THE TEACHER’S REPLY GIMENO TORRENTE

      For his part, Professor of Petrology and Geochemistry, University of Barcelona, ​​Gimeno Torrente after the government’s reply, told DAILY IRON “As a scientist I am pleased that after more than 2 weeks of rash, casual and temporal coincidence with the appearance of my report (referred to Pevolca Juan Santana on Wednesday, November 2 at 10.20 hours, by email), we could finally have news of a chemical analysis of rock that should and can do in a few hours after the onset of an eruption. ”

      Gimeno Torrente added: “I am pleased also that the interpreted similarly curious as I did (magma mixing in very shallow), but is certainly one way to late and contradictory to what they had said so far (purely basaltic eruption ) despite being alone in having had access to all information and samples from the first moment, “he said.

      According to this professor (which is reaffirmed in its report), “and respect for my basanite is a basalt and rhyolite me a trachyte, may correspond to different compositions at different sampling times, or interlaboratory analytical differences. In this respect the laboratory of the University of Barcelona is working with quality control and standards, and when we have real numerical data by the scientists responsible for monitoring the eruption will carry out a valuation exercise and comparison, “he said.

      End of translation:
      The thing about evaluation and quality control is the normal way of bigtime professors to say, “there will be hell to pay later on if you cannot prove this”.

      1. “This was the softest and nicest version of saying “You lying bastards”. It´s the best sentence about Pevolca I´ve heard in years.

      2. The Daily Irony ?
        Professor Torrente is from a private university, hence more or less outside the Spanish overpoliticized system. So not sure if the established Pevolcans will take the cartload of sh*t… They have political licence.

      3. Yes, but scientifically they are dead if he wants it soo. Next time they want to publish a paper they will have it returned from the Journal… They will not get invites to conferences, if they apply for teaching positions they will go into limbo… and so on.
        Cardinal rule in science, never hork the most respected professor in a country…

    2. Of course there is always the possibility that the people sending the samples to the various institutions did not send the same samples to each institution. This would cause conflicting results.

      In-fighting amongst scientists and politicians is not good. But whatever, there is a pending volcanic eruption on or near a small island with few ways off. There is uncertainty about the type of eruption so the emergency planners have to assume the worst.

      How many people could be taken off the island safely in time?

      1. If you click at a time point on the spectral graph it is more easily seen. Strong clipping between 8-9.00 am this morning.

  17. I did look at the other seismometers around El Hierro. That tells me that what is going on in El Hierro is not weather related. They do isolate the seismometers from weather pretty good as a standard setup.

    The current tremor in El Hierro is many levels above normal background levels of the ocean waves.

    1. And the tremors have been increasing pretty significantly in strength during the last few hours.

  18. Note: This theory itsn´t mine:
    If the eruptive area of La Restinga stills moving on his way to the land, opening a failure to news ways of escapes and at the same time comes slowly to the locality and reduces depth increasing the risk of becoming subaerial, It could happen an event like Capelin in The Azores (1957)? But in that ocassion the area and the bathymetry were lower. See videos:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ewv_wazJhYY

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCNGe1eDWiw

    1. It went from fairly large to saturated chart in 10 minutes. Either the old vent has reactivated itself or a new vent has opened up somewhere.

      1. Nah I doubt it. The last time a vent opened, we saw a large drop in tremor instead of an increase. Give it one more day.

      2. Pieter, the large drop the last time was due to rescaling, nothing else.
        They pulled the gain 3 times since that, so I guess it will not be possible to pull it down again.
        First one was in base setting (1). Then they scaled back to 1/3, later on to 1/5 and the latest was down to 1/10.
        And equipment of this analogue type normaly does not have an additional step of scaling.
        It is quite obvious if one look at the Bayaeux-tapestry of all the tremoring in one looooong image that someone had brilliantly put together on the page before this.

        But, I for other reasons agree with it taking something between a few hours to a day before it going boom. The main reason is that I do believe this will become rather explosive when it happens.
        Why?
        The earthquakes have not stopped yet. And as long as they go on we have fracturing going on for a new vent. Secondly, with the evidence from Bob we know that it is rather explosive there allready with pumice lava bombs, tephric ash on the bottom (Marglef tried to take samples, but the ash wouldn”t stay in the scoop) and so on.
        So I think there will be a new fissure opening up soon, and I am afraid that it might open onland in an explosive andesitic rhyolite eruption (Professor Torente).
        Back-up prediction: Bob increases a lot in eruptive behaviour and this releases pressure enough to contain the new vent, then we would have a very explosive birth of a new island within a couple of days.

  23. Hekla Transient:

    I normaly wait for the next update before posting about transients. This time I did not for a reason.
    I wanted to show how a transient will look if it happens with this new scale setting and with the new strainmeter hooked up.
    This is exactly how a true transient would start with Búrfell and Heklukriki going the same way, and with Hella and Storolfsfell going the other way.
    http://i40.tinypic.com/2gtaxwz.png

    Remember, I am not yet sure this is a real transient, this is posted merely as a teaching post.

      1. I consider myself duly trained – thanks Carl!

        Where on the IMO site do i find this information??

      3. This is much better and easier to see. Thank you Carl for making things a lot easier for my ,at times, over loaded brain cells. 🙂

    1. I have never ever seen that one.
      It is probabillity functions versus ambient noise presented cumulative over half an hour.
      I bet this one will be password protected faster then we could say, Ay Caramba!

      1. I came across it through the main IGN site because I couldn’t open the El Hierro one.

      3. Google has cached this page at least since 28 Oct 2011 12:30:45 GMT, I suspect that is older than that.
        I do not understand some hostility to IGN, so far they have done a good job, providing a lot of data, in a region that not had an eruption for 40 years.

      4. Hostility towards an entity usually comes when that entity starts talking out of it’s arse or giving conflicting information. This is especially true when it is arrogantly dismissive of work and information of well respected experts in the subject.

        A lesson I learned a while back seems to apply. All the “atta boys” in the world can’t over come an “aw shit.”

        In other words, they ruined their reputation by this display of “mine’s bigger.” Hell, the only thing they could have do that would be worse is to whip out their Eigenvalues and start running around waving them at people.

    2. Just as one starts to understand the daily influx of pretty graphs you all throw a new one at me, graar! Can you help me understand what I am looking at here please?

      Watching sheep on the Katla webcam seemed such an innocent hobby 18 months ago, who was to know it would lead to such a vulcanolgical addiction??

      1. I empathise with you Teco Peco. I think after this El Hierro event an Icelandic eruption will be almost easy to follow.

  25. Here is a fun one.
    The prediction against ambient noise cumulative 30 min average. Notice the difference between prediction and reallity, something really went to hell in a hand-basket here.
    Black lines bracketing is predictions, the wavy black line that is spiking and going all over is the actual recording.
    http://i42.tinypic.com/ekf2bk.png

  26. In my opinion I suspect that may never see an volcanic explosive event.
    I suppose that all this intrusion of magma in this let’s say echografic revealed reservoires (old big one, small intermediary and the deepest one) thru the recent seismic history will just manage to “eat” the flank of El Golfo from inside (sedimentary deposits) rapid enough to prepare another land colapse. Which is an El Hierro characteristic.

    1. I do not agree with this one.
      For this to happen you need to things.
      1. There being enough lava ejected to prepare a chamber for a magma-reservoir subduction collaps.
      2. Enough material at specific angle for it to be able to actually slide away.

      The first one could happen if there is a large effusive eruption, the reservoir(s) could start to subsidize creating an unstability that is large enough to give way for a landslide.
      But, the other part is the problem. Yes, local parts of the escarpment could fail, but there is no large area remaining that could fail. The El Golfo landslide was caused by a volcano that had grown very rapidly and very steeply, for that one it was just a matter of time, but now that one is already on the bottom, and there is nothing new that could slide away really, the gradients are all wrong today.

      There is andesitic intermediate rhyolitic magmas present with high H2o and gas content. We know this from Professor Torrentes analyzis of the lavas. So, the probability of explosive eruptive behaviour is very large.
      We also have Marfglefs “evidence” of tephric ash at Bob. Put that together with the lava bombs of intermediate rhyolites, and you have the situation where Bob already has proved you wrong on the explosive side. Sorry.

      1. I do not consider magma reservoire colapse. I just consider a “melting” process on the support area of the El Golfo flank (which got an abrupt angle). Therefore the landslide.
        After can come some magma out but due to a large opening not so explosive.
        In the case of Mount Hellen as I remember the flank inflation was huge in order to build-up all that explosin, Here in the other hand we do not have such an huge inflation.

      3. You are confusing types of volcanos really.
        Mt Saint Helens is very different.
        This is a rift volcano, it will not explode in that fashian.
        No, when we speak about explosive eruption we mean it like loads of tephra, things flying high in the air, massive ash column. Think Eyjafjallajökull, or perhaps more like Pinatubo (but not in that scale of course) since that one was not under a hell of a lot of ice. Mt Saint Helens was a mountain side collaps that released explosive magma in one huge whoosh. It was over within minutes, this one will be slowly exploding over days or weeks. Different type of explosive entirely.
        Hope you understand now what I am talkiing about.

      4. Thanks for response I do understand your explanation but that doesn’t make me stop consider the mechanism of a landslide. My english and field related vocabulary is not so rich to present you the story in the way I see it.
        Anyhow in time will see.

      5. Carl, creo que se estan confirmando nuestrso mas negros temores. No puedo hablar mas claro, pero estamos todos aterrorizados. UN abrazo.

      6. @Karmela:
        Recuerde que la erupción de un mal que no es probable. Probablemente no será tan grande si se produce.
        Solo debe estar preparado para ir rápidamente. Volcanes, como El Hierro no suelen matar a un montón de gente cuando entran en erupción. Por lo tanto, sólo estará listo para ir rápidamente si es necesario. Tiene una pequeña bolsa llena de sólo lo más necesario. Un mal se puede caminar y llevar un par de horas. No tienes una bolsa grande.
        Abrazo Karmela!

      2. Sorry, his name would be: Prof. Domingo Gimeno (Torrente being the second family name).

      1. The graph of the National Geographic Institute tremor of the earthquake in El Hierro for this Thursday, November 3, shows a significant increase in the intensity of the tremor. So far there have been 19 earthquakes on the island and all with the epicenter in Frontera.

        The higher intensity of 2.8, occurred at 9:07 pm to 24 kilometers deep. The second, of 2.7, occurred at 5:47 and 15 kilometers deep. For the rest, the magnitudes ranging between 1.6 and 2.5 in magnitude.
        From the home page of The Volcanic Islands (Avcan) warns that the increased intensity of the tremor is “indicating the nearby opening of a new vent or fissure,” so that “we urge all of you who are on alert and awaiting the notices can be issued. “

      1. “URGENTE
        11:12 Vuelve el burbujeo al mar de Las Calmas. Desde la costa de La Restinga en El Hierro se puede observar el burbujeo en la superficie, informa Rosa Rodríguez desde El Hierro.”
        canarias 7.com

        Bob start his jacuzzi again…

  29. http://www.diarioelhierro.es/t26496/pag02.asp?BD=ESPECIAL%20CRISIS%20SÍSMICA&id_registro=140658&Id=26496&BDi=INICIO&nt=p&Md=&rf3=1&rf3=1

    According to the Pevolca this process is associated with a dynamic of intermittent pulses in the tremor. Scientists and Civil protection authorities discussed jointly at the moment these signals to, if it were a risk to the population situation, take appropriate measures.

    The direction of the Pevolca studies at the moment what to do with the inhabitants of La Restinga, before the vibrations felt this morning in the town.
    According to the Pevolca this process is associated with a dynamic of intermittent pulses in the tremor. Scientists and Civil protection authorities discussed jointly at the moment these signals to, if it were a risk to the population situation, take appropriate measures.

    1. It´s probably that in a short time, The Restinga will be evacuated. I hope the best for the the people who live in Hierro.

      2. Karmela. Le envío un Abrazo de Inglaterra. Envío mejor deseos para usted todos.

    1. That looks like brand new source of sulphur. So it might be wise to move away from the EQ zones.

  31. The tremors are really fluctuating in strenght this afternoon. It seems like Bob is struggling with obstructions and a bad stomach ache.

    Could this be due to larger/lower gas content in different layers of the magma?

    1. Could be one or more of many causes, including:

      – continued de-gassing of the magma
      – mixing of magma types
      – magma still trying to find a way out
      -fracturing of magma / gas reservoirs.

    1. Thanks for that link, Teco Peco

      It is good to see preparations on the ground are underway. They are cutting it very fine, for the areas west of Frontera and possibly Tangansoga.

      It is clear from the film that Bob is expending a lot of energy.

      The main show still looks to be NW Frontera, though, and the build-up over the last 24 hours is massive.

  34. You remember that single frequency 0.17Hz meaningless ‘ground noise’ I mentioned several threads ago. Well it’s going extremely well now, particularly on the Fuerteventura seismograph. I really think this is harmonic tremor from the deep magma source. It’s great depth is why it shows up on all the islands’ records.

    1. It is “noise” from the magma movement at El Hierro. Lower frequencies travel better. We saw this when Bob erupted / de-gassed in October.

    3. you could be right, but the wave forecast is for 5Meter waves at El-Heirro:
      http://www.diarioelhierro.es/

      via Giggle:

      Orange alert in El Hierro by waves of up to 5 metrosLa Meteorological Agency has activated this Thursday, November 3, an orange alert on the island of El Hierro by coastal phenomena. Rough seas are expected and will cause waves fund up to five meters.

      DIARIOELHIERRO.ES, writing (11/03/2011) The Meteorological Agency has activated this Thursday, November 3, an orange alert on the island of El Hierro by coastal phenomena. Rough seas are expected and will cause waves fund up to five metros.El warning remains in effect until 00:00 pm tomorrow. Friday, April, as recorded by the Meteorological Agency on its Web web.Por hand, the AEMET expected for today, Thursday 3 in El Hierro that time will be partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy early rising, with more abundant in light rain the north, decreasing the unchanged tarde.Temperaturas general rise in the minimum light mediocrity. Weak westerly wind to moderate, turning northwest in the afternoon.

      IMHO we need to find a seismic PSD off the Canaries but near ocean to confirm or refute theory that 0.17Hz signal is HT or not ….

  35. The episode with Basil gambling on horses, what his wife wasn’t suppose to know….

    1. Carl was commenting at 10.33 that he did not think they could rescale again on the type of equipment there. has been rescaled 3 times so far.. tremor must be huge now compared with when it started ..

  37. All other station except CHIE are in stand by for data collections. I think that are updated once at 30min. At least if Chie is out of range we can have some idea from the others…the rumor part 😀

  38. Now just said on the autonomic canarian radio: We exclude La Restinga evacuation because the vibrations are still deeper…I can´t believe it!

    1. I´m afraid I’ve taken too much caffeine for today…is not good for my nervous system. Sorry.

      1. Don’t apologise, I would be hyped up on caffiene too if I was there and also saying (in large letters), I can’t believe they aren’t evacuating!
        I know they say to trust them but that is hard for people who have seen bad things happen in other places.

      4. Do not blame the caffeine, blame young Goldfarter Bob and his band of nodding men in suits!

        Put a brandy in that coffee, and breath. My thoughts are with you, brave canary x

      1. For now, I´m on shock…couse I don´t undestand anything. Politicians say bla bla bla…and scientifics say blo, blo, blo….

    1. Anything for CRST? Before the access denial that was showing greater amplitide that Julan.
      CJUK easier to read and not clipping. Can you update us hourly again?

      1. No. It seems to be further way, possibly near a small airport as the ground is very flat there. But the weather has closed in so I can’t check.

  43. Is there anyone who has seen or could link to a detailed chemical and mineralogical analysis of the samples from Hierro? It would really be interesting to know the composition of the material from the first eruption event.
    It is barely adequate to give only contents of SiO2. This leaves one without much more useful information. Could we have a more detailed analysis of the “Trachitic” or “Rhyolitic” or “Basaltic” material we could discuss possible magma mixing in detail.
    If anyone has a deatiled analysis of the chemical composition and information of mineralogical composition of the samples please post it.

    2. Look at the comment of Carl at 21-10-2011. There you could see, what he find’s out. And the explanation around it.

  44. La Television Canaria, la de Paulino Rivero “president”, sigue diciendo a la poblacion del Hierro, que no pasa nada, que los sismos han descendido, y que no deben preocuparse que no pasa nada. En estos dias de angustia, apenas da informacion de lo que esta ocurriendo en la isla, como si no tuviera la menor importancia del peligro que se avecina. Yo, al igual que Una Canaria, necesitamos relajar el sistema nervioso, pero como???????

    1. Canaryan TV ( Paulino Rivero´s slave), is still saying that´s all it´s ok in Hierro, nothing it happens, that earquakes are lower and no reason for worry. In this days, the information isn´t enough about events of the island, even when the situation is dangerous. Me and my daughter need to relax our nerves, but how!!!!???

      1. Makes you wonder if the authorities in El Hierro are getting enough constructive support.

      2. Una Canaria:
        Yo, se estuviera con mi hija, me ponia a camino para visitar la casa de amigos más lejanos.
        Solo por alguns dias, no mas. 🙂

      3. Una Canaria:
        Could you tell Karmela in good spanish (mine is to bad), to pack a bag with passport, money and any medication she has.
        Just that, perhaps one change of clothes and then water. And absolutly nothing else. Because if she needs to evacuate she might have to walk for a couple of hours. Volcanos like El Hierro very rarely kill anyone, unless you stand right ontop of an opening fissure, and that is very unlikely to happen.
        In Iceland only two people have died in the last 50 years from eruptions, and they died because they where really stupid, not because of direct contact with a volcano. So, she should really try to relax as much as possible.
        You are all in my thoughts.
        And tell her not to be to worried.

  45. Karmela says:
    “The Television Canaria, Paulino Rivero “president” continues the population of Iron, which does not matter, that earthquakes are down, and you need not worry that nothing happens. In these days of trouble, just give information of what is happening on the island, as if it had the lowest degree of danger ahead. I, like a Canary, we need to relax the nervous system, but as ???????”

    2. I wonder if this PaulinoRiviero would have a relaxed nervous system if he was living in la restinga right now.

    1. Well.. now that is disturbing.

      It was chugging along quite nicely, then after the onset of clipping, the chugging went to a longer period of repeats and much deeper and “full bodied” chugs at a bit slower pace.. almost as if it’s really beginning to struggle with whatever is causing the obstruction. (viscosity or path)

    1. Thanks for posting the interesting photo. Please stay safe. Hopefully all this activity will just result in a new island and nothing to dangerous. Please stay safe.

  48. Hi everyone, I’m long time lurker here. I just want to ask, what dangerous developments can probably happen there? Is there for example a risk, that magma bursts suddenly up under someone’s house or what?

  49. Canary News is reporting that the bubbling has resumed in La Calmas off of Restinga as of 2 hrs ago.

    Restinga has not been evacuated this time.

  50. El volcán se intensifica y muchos vecinos abandonan La Restinga de manera voluntaria, sin embargo el Concejal de Emergencias de el Pinar dice.. ”la situación ahora no es como al principio, ya que ahora tenemos localizada la erupción (al inicio del proceso no lo sabíamos y de ahí que se decidiera evacuar) y, de momento, la vibración ha descendido en comparación con esta mañana”, explicó. —
    Asimismo, y según recoge el twitter del Cabildo de El Hierro, la consejera insular de Seguridad y Emergencias, María del Carmen Morales, ha lanzado un mensaje de tranquilidda y ha asegurado que ”en estos momentos, no se tiene prevista ninguna
    evacuacion. Esto es lo que esta sembrando en toda la isla, el miedo, la indignacion y las ganas de arrojar por la costa de la Restinga a todos estos politicos incompetentes e irresponsables. Y que Bob el Pedorro, se atragante con todos ellos.

    1. 🙂 😉 😉 to the last sentence. It sounds like feelings are running high on the island and not surprisingly in my view..

      2. And tomorrow will start another international conference in Tenerife re. earthquake hazards: Diario El Hierro. SOCIEDAD – 3/11/2011 (14:10 horas), Expertos internacionales participan en Tenerife en un seminario sobre catástrofe por riesgo sísmico http://www.diarioelhierro.com/
        ….

      3. May be they should have one on volcanic hazards based on El Hierro; it does not seem to be a good time to divert attention from El Hierro.

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