Posted on by Jón Frímann

Daily update on Bárðarbunga volcano, 15-September-2014

This information is going to get outdated quickly.

Current status at 12:59 UTC

  • Largest earthquake so far is a magnitude 5,4 that took place at 08:04 UTC.
  • Caldera has so far dropped 45 cm of today. Largest drop took place during the magnitude 5,4 earthquake and that lowering continued for two to three hours after the earthquake.
  • Eruption in Holuhraun continues at similar rate as yesterday (14-September-2014). Now it is mostly one crater that is erupting. The flow of lava is also not powerful enough to cross the river. So now it is spreading out from the central crater in all directions.
  • Earthquake activity has been moving south along the dyke. This means there is higher risk for earthquake eruptions under the glacier. There have been several minor eruptions under the glacier already.

Current status at 20:51 UTC

  • New vent has opened up south of current eruption. I can’t tell from Míla web cameras if this is a new vent or just old vent getting active again.
  • Most of the eruption continues in the central crater at the moment.
  • The rifting phase of the activity in Bárðarbunga volcano is going to take months to finish. In that time there are going to be more earthquakes and more fissure eruptions. There is also high risk of new dyke intrusions going into other directions from Bárðarbunga volcano.
  • If the Holuhraun eruption ends, a new one is going to start soon after in different place of that dyke. It might be on glacier free area or under the glacier. There is no way of knowing that for sure.

Still more on comments

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Article updated at 20:51 UTC.

291 Replies to “Daily update on Bárðarbunga volcano, 15-September-2014”

  1. I have never seen any statistically significant correspondence between earthquakes and tides or lunar cycle or solar flares and believe me, it has been looked for. It just isn’t there.

    1. Isn’t that amazing! Two possibilities amongst others …

      1) Nothing significant
      2) Precompensated/prestresssed as to be insensitive to the tidal forces

      Watching the earthquake patterns in Iceland strongly suggests long range correlation along the MOR. The earthquakes can swarm or are quiescent across the country at the same interval. Maybe that is indicative of flows and streams of magma at depth …

      … And then the obvious conumdrum .. Why shouldnt such a thing be influenced by tidal forces. Maybe it is due to viscousity. Tides occur at too high a frequency to induce momentum. Much speculation. Some must have done the physics of this

      1. Well, you need a system that’s *much* larger than any magma chamber I have heard of to get noticable tides in water. Given how much slower magma moves than water, it would move a tiny immesurable bit in one direction, before being pushed in the opposite direction by about the same amount. Even the east-west mid ocean ridge that circles Antarctica has not, to the best of my knowledge, ever been demonstrated to be effected by tides.

        For all the geomagnetic storms = earthquakes and volcanic eruptions crowds, lol. Just lol.

      2. I can’t do the physics but I can do a few thought experiments and can make reference to related phenomena.

        Since tides cause volcanoes on Jupiter’s moon Io, we know for a certainty it is possible given the right combinations of orbit, gravity and so on. The idea the moon only affects large bodies of water doesn’t wash (no pun intended, ok, intended) because gravity acts on bodies of all sizes. Actually as a once-avid fisherman I used to study tide tables for inland lakes because fish become more active even in small lakes in accordance with the Moon, even during the day. And later in life, when working at a halfway house for psychiatrically disabled people I learned why they were once called “lunatics” — they really do get crazier during the full moon. More to the point, the Moon’s gravity acts on rock as much as it does on water or any liquid. One might not see movement, but there will be changes in pressure and direction of down, which it’s hard to believe don’t matter. The Moon doesn’t just act on oceans, it acts on the whole planet, and all the way through to the core. Planets can be detected orbiting other stars by detecting a wobble in the star’s light caused by the planet, even if the planet is much smaller relative to the star than the Moon is to the Earth. So the Moon is making the Earth wobble, and it will wobble differently as the Moon’s orbit varies slightly e.g. during a super moon, and why wouldn’t that affect fault lines?

        Personally I can’t believe the theory without strong numerical observational evidence (e.g. as opposed to greenhouse effect theory where the multiple lines of confirming observational numerical evidence are completely overwhelming and indisputable), but it’s not like it doesn’t make a certain amount of sense. Like georaving I’d need to see some very strong arguments against it to remove it from consideration — and I’ve said before, lack of a discernable signal in the data is not enough given the noisiness of the data in question.

      3. Agreed that lack of discernable signal does not = no signal at all, however it does indeed mean that if there is any signal, it is small enough to be hidden among the other fluctuations. So negligable but possibly there if you look hard enough.

        I would like to point out that on the great lakes or Caspian sea, the tidal change is less than 1 cm. Considering that barometric pressure changes will influence water levels there much more than 1 cm, it took people a long time to determine that there was any tidal change to any of the great lakes. The change was hidden in the noise.

        That being said, the great lakes are still listed as no relevant tides. Because any tidal shift is so small as to be negligable.

        Also Io’s tidal effect that drives the vulcanism is tidal flexing. Not “tides”. Tidal flexing means the massive gravity of Jupiter is so much as to squish the planet to a degree that the friction heats it. This is a heat source, not something that determines which volcano erupts when. Also both Io’s orbit and Jupiters gravity are part of that equation. Just squishing the planet isn’t enough. It also has to move far enough away in its orbit to unsquish, or it wouldn’t heat. If that kind of thing worked with the earth/moon system, then we would see volcano’s erupting on the moon, not on earth.

      4. Good points re Io and flexing although you left out Ganymede, which plays a huge role in that system too.

        Someone responded earlier the Moon can be discounted because only local effects matter re earthquakes and volcanoes, and that may well be true, but I still can’t dismiss the idea the gravity of the moon doesn’t move mountains on Earth, even if only slightly — but even slightly equals massive amounts of energy that could get expressed in criticalities… Any chaos theorists in the house, especially avalanche theorists specializing in self-organizing criticality? 🙂

      5. Tidal action on magma? You are talking about rock within rock, and it think any (very tiny) pull on magma would occur with solid rock as well. Wouldn’t our moon pull both the cooled crust and the magma the same amount at the same time, thus making no difference?

      6. People tend to project their local tidal range globally and so most have a notion that tidal forces are larger than they really are. Out in the open ocean there is about 2 feet of tide. That really isn’t a lot of difference when you consider you can get waves of 40 feet in the open sea during storms or in the eye of a tropical storm you can get a greater rise in sea level. So people who are used to seeing a 6 foot or even a 10 foot tidal difference will have a tendency to think it is that way globally. It isn’t. Tidal changes get lost in the noise.

  2. Sorry for this comment, but with all the holes in the ice forming and the possibility of ash reminded me of this joke:

    How to you catch an elephant?

    Dig a hole, fill it with ash and then place peas all around the rim. When the elephant bends over to take a pea, kick it in the ash hole……

    Again – sorry.

  3. Jon: how did you got the 45 meters tipping point number? Wouldn’t the ice mass over the caldera remain the same? What makes you think that this would be a tipping point? I am curious to know.

    1. I figured out that is going to be central point for which gravity overtakes this process of collapsing. I am trying to refine my calculations, but this is the closest number that I got on this. How correct it is I do not know.

      Edit: Fixed a spelling error.

      1. witch
        noun
        1.
        a woman thought to have evil magic powers. Witches are popularly depicted as wearing a black cloak and pointed hat, and flying on a broomstick.

        which
        pronoun
        1.
        asking for information specifying one or more people or things from a definite set.
        “which are the best varieties of grapes for long keeping?”

      2. Jon, takk fyrir svara.

        We are having a discussion on VC blog over Holuhraun magma being sourced from a deep or shallow chamber at Bardarbunga, and whether this event was triggered by simple regional rifting/ tectonic/ dike event,and caldera was only subsequently affected.

        Also we talk about the composition of this magma, being 51% Si, 6% MgO, seems to indicate not fresh basalt, but a slightly evolved one.

        What do you make of all of this in light of these events?

        Then we also talk of regional event having the potencial of developing like Laki (forming a feeder dike eventually) but I say that volcanism in the region, is more prone to shield volcanoes forming rather than long rifting events. What do you think of that too? Any chemistry supporting a shield volcano event?

      3. @Irpsit, This is a rifting episode and as such it is going to last for months. It has not even started in south part of Bárðarbunga volcano fissure.

        There is a lot more going to happen in next few months. I regard this as minor warm up to what is going to happen in this area. I’m going to be busy until next year or more with this.

      4. What physics and engineering equations and assumptions are you using to derive this value ?

      5. @ Irpsit says:
        September 16, 2014 at 02:46
        —

        Can you really refer to the shield remnants as multiple failed shield volcanoes when they’re really remnants of eruptive fissures that followed the structural grain for 20 to 50 km? I’d say they’re fissure flood remnants, and that what we should expect is more of the same sort of activity which the surrounding terrain indicates is the normal eruptive style for the area. Yes, that can change, of course it can, but it most probably won’t.

  4. Oh come on, Barry. When we start speaking Icelandic as well as Jon speaks and writes in English, we might be justified in correcting his usage. Not until then.

    1. Jon can delete any correction of mine. Full permission. Some times it is best to correct. Generally good to fly as most are good at reading between the lines.

  5. News: Reykjanes volcano near airport suddently increases geothermal activity. Could have been just a minor intrusion contacted some shallow water. Police closed the area.

    Iceland getting pretty lively!

  6. Greetings from Scottsdale, AZ. I’ve been following this site for a couple of weeks and am impressed by the quality of eruption coverage and comments. Very well done. The whole issue of what does and does not affect volcanos is interesting. Back when I was in grade school (1950s, ouch) the idea of continents continually on the move was not mainstream science as it is today. The earth was viewed as a rather static place with periodic burps. As an engineer I’ve seen theories and “facts” come and go to the point where my attitude is now one where a scientific fact happens to be the best explanation given the data available at the moment. There’re always more data over the horizon, much of which will be surprising.

  7. How long could it possibly be before the Bardarbunga caldera completely collapses, leading to a large eruption? Could this all stop before that happens?

    1. It could be centuries before a full collapse if somehow all this stops for now. More likely, much sooner — if Jon’s 45 meter subsidence tipping point calculation is correct, we’re already at least halfway there since mid-August, and the continuing decline is pretty linear. So, in a month?

  9. ( GeoRaving says:
    September 16, 2014 at 01:27

    Isn’t that amazing! Two possibilities amongst others …

    1) Nothing significant
    2) Precompensated/prestresssed as to be insensitive to the tidal forces

    Watching the earthquake patterns in Iceland strongly suggests long range correlation along the MOR. The earthquakes can swarm or are quiescent across the country at the same interval. Maybe that is indicative of flows and streams of magma at depth …

    … And then the obvious conumdrum .. Why shouldnt such a thing be influenced by tidal forces. Maybe it is due to viscousity. Tides occur at too high a frequency to induce momentum. Much speculation. Some must have done the physics of this)

    Well if you are right we will be seeing a 5.3 or better in the next few hours… which could be tidal caused.
    So cross your fingers…

    1. I suggested this a long long time ago and was mocked for it. I maintain that if the gravitational forces are capable of moving oceans, then they have to have an effect on solid matter whether it visibly manifests itself or not. If the asthenosphere is at least partially fluid then it is affected too leading to sub lithospheric pressure changes.

    2. “Volcanologists use the regular, predictable Earth tide movements to calibrate and test sensitive volcano deformation monitoring instruments. The tides may also trigger volcanic events”

      Shring

  12. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377027312000467

    Here is a excerpt from a study done about the Askja caldera formation that took place. Again, I keep ready about this “caldera collapse” that probably will never happen. Instead the caldera will keep lowering as magma is injected/erupted. More than likely from being injected at depth. Also, from everything I know of volcanoes, Iceland is not known for large caldera forming eruptions (Long Valley Caldera, Toba) even though it houses many large calderas. My understanding of these volcanoes is they are basically benign from an eruption standpoint and most magmatic events are injected into the fissure swarms. As the magma leaves, the caldera gets deeper or a new (nested) one may form without the formation of some large ash producing eruption. Also, rhyolitic eruptions would be short lived since there is not an abundance of it in these systems. I have learned that these rhyolitic “pods” form from tears in the zone of crystallization around the edges of the “magma chamber” releasing blobs of silica rich melt to collect at the top since it is more buoyant then the basalt.

    1. There are at least three big volcanic systems containing much rhyolite, one of them is still active, Torfajökull. The two others, at Lón in the southeast and Borgarfjördur Eystri in the East Fjords are extinct.

  13. @Irpsit “the composition of this magma, being 51% Si, 6% MgO, seems to indicate not fresh basalt, but a slightly evolved one.”

    That would probably be expected from the initial magma erupted. It has been a long time since an eruption of the magma in this particular system. The magma has had a long time to sit and “evolve” and mix and remelt previously erupted material. It is going to take a while before all of that is flushed out and we see fresh basalt, if we even see fresh basalt.

  14. A fair summary? …

    It is what it is because there are both rifting and subduction type volcanic processes superimposed. Hence both flood bassalts and magma evolution in magmatic systems are present.

    There is a lot subsidence going on … Not just the Bardarbunga caldera but Asjka and the graben south of the erupting fissure. Magma would seem to be moving downward and draining away to fill the void in the widening rift. If there wasn’t a handy supply of hot magma to opportunistically force dykes in widening faults, there would just be an ever growing rift valley.

    The land is sinking. Without an convenient elevated magma resevoir in Bardarbunga that towers over its surrounding landscape, there would be no rifting style eruption. the magma is flowing downhill into the gaping rift. Where and how does the magmatic system get recharged from below.

    1. The answer is implicit in your own comment. If the area is rifting then it’s splitting the crust open, and whatever is immediately under it, i.e., the partially melted asthenosphere, which is simply more mantle that’s melted some, plus lower crustal remelts, and the inevitable remnants that did not rise in time to erupt last time the fissure system was opened by rifting, is sitting in a layer of magma right below the rifting crust. As the rift opens it obtains an increasingly easy pressure injected path to rise. The quake patterns under the crust directly below the fissure are fully consistent with that prosaic intrusion mechanism.

  15. Is it for sure that the caldera realy is sinking? Can it be ice melting instead? The caldera is about 700 m deep. If ice is melting to water it change i density and volume. If the volume increase will the ice surface sink with aboute 56 m before the water flow over the top of the caldera. This is without that the top of the real caldera has sinked anything. Is this realistic?

    1. There are multiple ways to view what’s occurring at Bardarbunga. I posted the following comment @ Irpsit in VC a few hours back.

      —
      http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/is-it-a-plume-is-it-a-cloud/comment-page-4/#comment-157135
      Unmentionable
      September 16, 2014 at 03:52

      Well if the [crustal rifting] divergence would have continued apace, as it was prior to the end of August, we’d have a very different situation by now, but it quelled. I think you’re right though, the subcrust [in and around Bardarbunga itself] is caving, and the magma is finding it easier to move ‘out’ [but not really] of the chamber probably via flowing into new dike openings in the wall rocks that follow the structural grain [opened by the Mag 5 quakes], and these have probably been activated and welded and reactivated like this before, in similar style.

      I look at the quakes down to 20 km and more under the fissure itself, and that says magma upwelling to me, so there is no certainty magma from Bardarbunga is moving into the fissure. The glaring absence of connective quakes connecting Bardarbunga to the fissure should also not be ignored. Have a look at the 3D, there’s just no connection evident.

      The coming complication is that the tensional opening and draining of Bardarbunga into new tension dikes in the wall rocks, and the [resulting] deflation, leads to pressure drop which will trigger a renewed magma uplift pulse still to come.

      I see Jon is getting worried that this is just a hiatus in the tensional separation (as per the CGPS stall) that may be resumed with some larger tectonic quakes, which then finally unhinges the lid on B (if gravity doesn’t get there first).

      Yeah, could be, but there’s the possibility we’re looking at activity analogues of the area early last century, and that it now settles down slowly and goes back to sleep for another century. In the end the CGPS has stopped distending and the earthquakes are dieing back.

      If this were a larger area magmatic plume event from multiple centers I would not expect the activity to be dropping away like this, at this point. Thankfully it’s looking like a more modest event compared to the dire spiral escalation phase of three weeks ago.
      -ends-

      Consequently there’s no particular reason to presume Bardarbunga’s lid is sinking due to the eruption of magma elsewhere on the rift. The system can equally be sinking due to crustal stretching opening multiple dikes in the surrounding walls of the magma reservoir(s), in conjunction with the larger quakes, and then magma is flowing into these new dike openings without net altering of the quantity of magma present and potentially erupt-able.

      That would also neatly explain the initial quick drop and then slower drop in the vertical plot of ice sheet above which we saw yesterday.

      1. I totally agree there is no eq evidence of connectivity between the fissure and B, that has been evident from the start.

        Similarly though, I do not think B’s magma is extending sideways into rifts. It is going somewhere, or being compressed by the 10km wide ‘plug’ – the problem there is magma is incompressible. So it has to be moving between the upper and lower magma chamber and possibly into the mantle.

        Whilst there is no evidence of deeper quakes at B (in comparison to the fissure) we must remember that eq’s do not show in liquids, which leads me to ask has the asthenosphere or plume extended closer into the base of B?

      2. Earthquakes don’t occur in liquids because they mechanically can’t, they occur only within crystalline solids. It is the bonds between the atoms in the crystal lattice of solid minerals that are the mechanism of strain storage and release. And there is in fact evidence of dikes opening in the wall rocks of Bardarbunga, and it id for sure certain that it has been occurring if the crust has stretched open under tension.

        I’m not talking about dikes 10 or 30 km long, I’m referring to dike swarms that may be 1 meter long to 1 km long, and as narrow as 1 mm wide to 20 meters wide, radially propagating into the strained surrounding shield dome of B. This is a commonly observed feature in weathered remains of these systems, and there is every reason to expect it to be occurring in the sides of the magma reservoir given it’s been stretched E to west in these circumstances. Weathered out remains of these systems are riddled with such dike swarm networks. It’s how volcanoes often open up a fissure on its flank, or nearer to its base periphery.

        If you have some material reason to think it’s not occurring, as a natural matter of course, than what is it?

      3. Have a close look at the 3D time series on the IMO site, numerous much deeper quakes did occur under Bardarbunga since August 16th, and at up to twice the depth of the upper ones that we have been routinely seeing occur above 10 km.

        But I do know what you’re getting at there about no quakes (humble apologies if I misunderstood your initial remarks), I take it to mean there’s a very large volume of magma in network of open conduits between ~11 km and ~16 km depth under B. Not surprising, given its a mature active caldera, and any self-respecting active caldera is going to have that.

      4. I see your point about the fissures being relatively small. I was thinking you meant longer fissures.

        My point about the magma staying in the B volcanic system and moving predominantly up or down (depending on inflation or the current deflation) was that the B chambers are very active and very fluid. Therefore a collapse would not be a good thing since it has not been emptying itself into the fissure as has been stated by others.

        I do not know these facts I am merely stating an observation.

      5. OK, but I don’t mean erupting fissures, I mean non-erupting dikes which open up and fill with magma and thus we see a resulting drop in the roof of B, without the magma actually leaving the B ‘chamber’ complex, but merely increasing its capacity (well, until the material in the new dikes stiffen too far to move much).

  16. I will try to keep this short and to the point. I agree with Jonny that this is just getting started and we are going to see quite a few eruptions in the next few months until it reaches its logical end and that ends with a BOOM! There are 7.2 billion people on the planet and food is at a 39 day level now and its a crappy distribution system. The UN is a food relief organization and if it goes boom, they wont be able to buy food at any price. ANY PRICE which means that a load of people are going to die.

    But the BOOM-I have been watching and 3D displaying the quakes and I think we have two chambers, one near the surface and one about a mile or so deeper. I agree with Jon when he says this is going to go on for months. Its something that cannot be stopped. Some of you have seen the inverted V pattern of the faults in the east of Iceland and if you take it at that, there has to be a second chamber. How much is in the first and shallow? Well enough that its not violently exploding but enough that its going out, heating and falling back into the vent. So, its really getting ready to do something soon. Then there is the caldera collapse. There are cracks all over the place and on a clear day you dont need a helicopter or satellite to see them. Visible on the Mila cam. Said cracks indicate that its falling apart underneath just as Redoubt did with the snow. It only took 3 days and there were some popping big eruptions during that time, but no boom. But the collapse continues. Jon thinks 45, me it doesnt matter. Once that eruption is below the edifice of the vent, we got big problems. All around the caldera its cracking and the downward trend is and has been zipping along at 2 or better feet a day. A couple of weeks it will be at ground level inside the volcano. But-the Boom. It can come in phases or it can come in one big surging burst. Just start erupting like Krakatau, or as Pinatubo. Blew the top off of both of them. There was water available and this hopefully will be vented out before we get to the boom. I have been doing some warped calculations of sq. feet x single sq. foot of water and I keep coming up with some really bad, bad numbers. Water steam is saturated at 406F. We are talking about 1800 C or 4 times the level that it will take for it to start to turn to plasma. No one is sure but at the temp that it turns to plasma all of the electrons are chased away by the energy (electric, heat etc.). That is to say that at that temp, you will have nothing but plasma or something thats very, very near it in the hole and looking for a way to return to state. Nature abhors a vacuum. Even it its not and the material is gaseous and nearly a plasma its still trying to return to state.

    Aint happening…. So our tephra, rock, water, all have different points but the heat is key. At 3200 pounds of pressure one pound of steam will lift the Empire State Building about 3 feet vertically until the expansion of the steam starts to return to state. With Bardarbunga, we have the potential to see one and six trillion TONS of conserved force in a very small area and trying to return to state (water). It cant do that because of the heat and the heat that would be there after any eruption. Thats bigger than any 50 to about 70-50 megaton nukes. I do hope it ratchets up and down and even if it has a fairly big boom, because if its the one or two big booms, we are done. The ash would blanket the EU and they would freeze to death in six months. Think Putin is going to send gas? He might need it himself.

    I always had trouble reconciling the gig in Revelations. What wold the effects be if it did go big boom in the top chamber and then the hammer falls in the second chamber which is several thousands of feet. Me, I respect Jons opinions… He is rarely wrong about the Iceland volcanoes but I think he is thinking too small because you cant get your arms around it. I know I had trouble and went back and checked and rechecked. Went to sleep, held it for a weekend and came at it from another angle. We are talking about Death with a capital D. Some people would just freeze, some would die in the famines, some would die because of a drought-but die they will. The ash cloud would bury eastern Iceland within 6-10 hours. How much? Enough to kill you outright if you are lucky. Vesuvius and Herculaneum come to mind. This would be belching it up from 2000 feet down and more on the first one, and maybe 5000 feet on the second one. The whole thing could collapse and constrain the heated water.

    Ask yourself what could give you an earthquake that the world has never seen? What could give you a sky that 1/3rd of the sun and its light is gone. What could blot out the moon enough to turn it red. All of these effects would have to be able to be seen by nearly everyone on the planet. Biblical-Please, I am a realist but I do believe in God. But if you look at it realistically and you want everyone around to know who you were, what better way than to pump the heat into the worlds biggest natural steam engine and then wire the safeties down and watch what happens. You get this and you get more.

    Revelations
    The fourth angel sounded his trumpet and a third of the sun was struck, a third of the moon, and a third of the stars, so that a third of them turned dark. A third of of the day was without light, and also a third of the night.

    Ezekiel-The Lord said, “When I snuff you out, I will cover the heavens and darken their stars; I will cover the sun with a cloud and the moon will not give up its light”

    There is always an explanation of what happened in the Bible. Me, I think of it as a tool in watching for things to happen. This is the case here. Its really simple if you want a non Bible point out, hot water flashes to steam in a second or two. Its trapped and expanding and it cant get out for even what 2 seconds and then it melts ice or vaporizes the one rock and then BOOM happens. It probably would vent out of that hole so loudly that it would be heard for thousands of miles, maybe more-Gabriels horn.

    I mean we are talking about God and Science here and each has a logical expression to a logical event. But there has to be people around to bear witness to it, thats the thing that was in Revelations that said that there would be people around to watch it happen. Food for thought but think about 3-6 years of less than normal output from the sun. The temps drop. The iron from the eruption is into the water dropping it further and a mini ice age begins. A single small eruption would do it and get the ball rolling. Then the big one comes later. 7.62 billion people and neither wars nor pandemic has been able to remove them from the earth. Its all conjecture on my part of course except for the scientific stuff. But, what if the holy joes are right?

    Do tell.

    1. May I politely suggest that you adjourn to the ‘Rapture Ready’ forum.

      You will find many friends there.

      2. Didnt mention a thing about the Rapture, only that which
        could square this up. Not many things other than nukes and there wouldnt be a Rapture, only disintegrating flesh and vaporization.

        I for one would like to see it, and live to tell what happened. No God here folks on that end of the fence, only science in that respect. For 5000 years we have been waiting. The last time this one blew was at least 10,000 and the Mayans were the big cheeses then. This wiped out civilizations and they were one of them. You tell me… What is the single thing or even a combination that would eliminate a large portion of the population of the Earth? Did someone foresee an “event” which is in todays eye far more believable than God that took a load of us out?

    2. What? Are you afraid of dieing or something? Bad news for you, we all die so come to terms with it. If you’re part of infinity dieing does not make you a non-part of infinity. (At the risk of sounding like your favorite Messiah) Therefore, fear not. Oh, and please leave the spiritualism for goat herders manuals at the door – cheers. 🙂

      2. You’re asking me? Well, religious spam is the lowest form of spam so off to the outer darkness with it.

      3. Thats “dying”my friend and remember no one gets out of here alive. No spiritualism, a question that many seized upon and didnt answer the question to yet. The others, I am pretty sure it gave them pause. As I said below-I wait for an answer and take in all of the available input before opening it up to say something.

    3. Doom indeed but possible. Not wanting to talk about it does not make it go away.The best case is it fizzles out . Time will tell

    4. The Revelation of the Lord isnt plural and it is fascinating reading.
      I would never suggest raptureready forum. You cant beat the original. 🙂
      The reactions arent very nice – you coulda just skipt over this ya know . . just sayin

    6. The 2004 Boxing day Earthquake has been estimated to have generated the same energy as a nuclear explosion 550 million time larger than the Hiroshima bomb (or 9600 gigatonnes of TNT). The earth has enough potential energy to cause mayhem in Iceland.

      However I note that even with the enormous energy release in 2004 we are still here. Life goes on.

    9. A lot of of the events described in the Bible e.g. the burning of the cities of the plain, the burning bush, probably the flood, the parting of the Red Sea, the death of the first born sons, can be explained by purely physical events the people at the time could not have understood. Perhaps there was a volcano winter remembered in stories that made its way into Revelations. Also, all that stuff did happen in 535 ad and arguably led to the rise of Islam a hundred years later.

      The world could end a lot of ways, as could any human life. That salient fact to my mind indeed has profound implications but more to do with which human emotions are valid and which are not — selfishness is absurd in the circumstances of compound existence in general, however hard it is to break free from it.

  17. M Rudolph Kruger, forming a plasma is not a great thing. Every time we light a match we form a glowing plasma above it. We call it flames. There is no reason why plasmas should spread. They are quite tame. Our most destructive ones are those in lightning strikes. Yes, I have no doubt volcanos do form plasma which adds to the glow. They even have their own thunder storms which definitely causes plasma. However that aspect is not something of concern.

  18. I think some here are getting a tad carried away in the doomsday predictions. This is an eruption and a potential for another bigger one but that’s about it. It is not a divine intervention or anything of the sort.
    I suggest we all take a cold shower and then stick to science.

    Iceland has a long history of volcanic eruptions and therefore has one of the best volcano and seismic monitoring systems in the world. I have absolutely no doubt that even if Bardarbunga itself erupts (real scientists still disagree on the odds of that), emergency managent will keep people safe

    So everyone, a deep breath and a bit of clear, rational thinking goes a long way

    1. I think we are all capable of being driven by faith one way or another due to the nature of the human mind where faith operates in tandem with logical ideas constructed from beliefs that we believe to be true.

      Humans are by their very nature bi polar creatures.

  19. agreed, just breathe. This will take months to play out.

    But, there is no previous seismic disturbance that has ever crossed the liquid gap between the MAR, as far as i know.
    How does that happen, if it is not a mantle connected event ?

    The Grimsvotten swarm field, and the Askja swarm, are on split sides of the mapped fault. How does that compute? GIGO, but that doesn’t help us model any of the coming scenarios.

    To bring tidal influences into something that has a pressure differential of this scale is kind of fun, but not very helpful. Would much prefer to see the ESA gravity maps included, with the possible 10 km core offset/discontinuity as a mappable factor.

    Papers are being written as we speculate here, but do we know of anyone other than BGA, UniIceland, and UniCambridge that has seismic delay times that can show what dyke and possibly, mantle effects are really going to effect where overpressures can form to deform the crust?

    1. I skipped most of what had been written. The world has enough problems with extremists right now, without having it forced into our heards in this blog too.

      Please keep religion & politics elsewhere. There’s no need of it here. This is nature at work, not God.

      2. Well said. Can we pleased keep this excellent blog sensible and scientific, without reference to religion and Revelation.

    2. Jonathan Meteodale Witty says:
      September 16, 2014 at 10:30

      It’s “Hear, hear”. It represents a listener’s agreement with the point being made by a speaker. The actual source is the Hebrew Bible, Samuel II 20:16. “Then cried a wise woman out of the city: ‘Hear, hear; say, I pray you, unto Joab: Come near hither, that I may speak with thee.'”

  21. VC Ursula
    September 15, 2014 at 20:51

    Et voila, freshly published (tomorrow’s date):

    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-014-0869-8

    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-011-0461-4

    http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X10004516

    And a paper up, on lava dynamics , travel and cooling. They say it tumbles when going downhill, so not a lot of increased velocity. Atmo and water do affect cooling rates, but it appears, not enough to turn it.

    http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/PressRelease/pressReleaseId-112184.html

    and the Hadean may not have been hellish ? Zircon study compares Iceland vs sedimentary re-emplaced zircons

    http://news.vanderbilt.edu/2014/09/early-earth-less-hellish/

    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00445-014-0869-8

    2. Yes, but might not be real. There is no earthquake shown. Erroneous trends on that graph are often corrected later. Single GPS measurements have a high degree of intrinsic error.

      1. Yes, I wondered if there was an earthquake, too. So I thought it could be an error, but I wrote already. 🙂
        Btw. the eruption last night was really beautiful on cam.

  23. are there any new developments in tools to look under the surface what’s going on
    now a days we seems to have GPS, tremor plots, quake monitors.

    so I was wondering what the future options would be to get a more info what’s is going on below the surface

    1. Iceland was in a COL weather pattern overnight so light winds, plumes should go straight up. Hope we do not get too much low cloud.. A warm front straddles the area now so certainly will be plenty of Altostratus type. tonight looks a easterly breeze with high pressure influencing the weather, albeit weak. As a note of interest, there is Hurricane Edouard in Atlantic but will not effect Iceland as sticking to sub tropics then seems to fade. Looks good though.

      Friday a very flabble Low circulation with little wind and stagnant air followed by a weak ridge bringing fine weekend to Iceland. A depression next weeks sits in the usual place recently between Iceland and Greenland so southwesterlies will resume BUT in the medium range it seems low pressure centres oersistantly sit over Iceland , so any volcanic pollution will just sit around in the centre of those. Not good really but avoiding Europe in short term.

      Not a lot of difference on the models so it is likely to be correct.

      All the best and take care all…

  24. Mhh, this time the sudden drop (~20 cm) seems not connected to a large earthquake. Any suggestions of what this could mean?

    2. It takes a while to manually verify the earthquake. It’ll pop up on the earthquake map in an hour or so, +/-.
      The GPS reading gives you an early warning on the big ones.

      1. Big spike upwards. Either an earthquake taking place or noise I suspect. Earthquakes are not shown immediately so maybe there has been one.

  25. The prophecies of older peoples where cycles of death and re-birth are mentioned. The very famous Icelandic poem Völsuspá refers the ending of the old earth and the birth of the new. On a scientific level we know that cataclysmic events have happened in our history confirming the earth has the capacity for this. Scientific experts have validated that giant mammoths were preserved in ice with the grass they had been eating still in their digestive systems. To a simple lay person like myself this indicates very sudden climate change. The climate required to grow grass is very different from that required to freeze a well insulated woolly mammoth in its tracks. Something caused that great change and something will cause great change in the future.

  26. Interestingly there are many prophecies of cyclical endings and new beginnings. The very beautiful Icelandic poem entitled Völsuspá tells of such a cycle of cataclysmic change and rebirth. The scientist tell us enormous and sudden changes have occurred in the history of the earth. Experts have confirmed that giant woolly mammoths were frozen with the grass they had been eating still in their digestive systems. To a simple lay person like me this indicates the presence of two circumstances in very close proximity time-wise, (a) a temperate climate supporting the growth of grass, and (b) a climate cold enough to freeze a well insulated woolly mammoth in its tracks. Of course, no one is saying this event was caused by a volcanic eruption. It does bring a reminder that from time to time nature has re-birthed herself and blossomed again following great upheavals.

  28. I just posted on the youtube chat regarding the GPS readings.

    “it’s GPS errors, if this was real movement there would certainly be quake readings to support it. Mountains don’t move 1/2 a meter without making a noise!”

    The errors are known of and allowed for, hence the averaging readings. You cannot take any one GPS reading in isolation.

    1. The ground can shudder due to a relatively small local event, like cracking ice, that would not show up as an earthquake. It would not however, remain either lower of higher as a result. The effect would be very transient.

  31. Mr Kruger….everyone is entitled to their opinion and free speech. The first part I understood (sort of), and the second part, well I’m not sure religion has anything to do with this as the current events is simply geology at work and science is used to try to forecast an outcome.
    I have followed Jon since the 2010 eruption, and avidly since the 16th August (it gets me out of bed earlier to see whats happened overnight!). I impressed a friend the other day explaining caldera’s, fissures, GPS measurements, tremors etc etc and he was genuinely impressed with my knowledge, and I even impressed myself (go me !)
    Therefore I think we should stick to geology and science.
    Jon…good work, keep it going and a man of mystery!

    1. ‘I have followed Jon since the 2010 eruption’
      Me too

      ‘it gets me out of bed earlier to see whats happened overnight!’
      Well – not quite. haha 🙂

      1. Ive only followed jon since 16 august. Not only does it get me out of bed early, it actually stops me sleeping! Im so scared of missing something im surviving on just a few hours shut eye. On holiday next week. ..bet my grandchildren see a lot of the internet cafe!!!!

  32. Oh dear, some days ago I mentioned tidal forces and the speculation has gone on ever since. My post wasn’t very clear. There is no evidence that tidal forces from the moon directly contribute to earthquake or volcanic activity at the time the tidal force occurs, except sometimes it might bring forward a tectonic event that was about to happen anyway. What I was implying that as the moon moves its additional 3.5cm a year away from Earth and Earth’s rotation corresponding slows a millisecond or so every few years not all of the rotational energy lost by Earth is absorbed by the moon gaining its higher orbit. Some of this rotational energy is converted to heat deep under the crust of Earth. Very little energy is absorbed by the moon because the tidal force of earth on the moon acts basically at one point on the moon’s surface as its rotation has become synchronized with its orbit around Earth.
    When there is extra gravitational forces that are acting in harmony (like when the sun, moon and Earth are in alignment) then does the moon move further away from Earth? I don’t think so – possibly the opposite when the moon is between the sun and Earth. So then it seems that extra heating would have to occur under Earth’s surface.
    Now lets look at the sun. Its solar cycles seem to be controlled by gravitational influences of Jupiter, Saturn, Venus and Earth. The sun’s cycles seem to be related to jet stream activity within its plasma and these jet streams must periodically speed up or slow down if they are to drive the underlying changes in its magnetic strength. Something happened during solar cycle 23, which has caused one or more jet streams to almost disappear according to solar physicists and this would explain why its average magnetic strength in the current cycle is down about a third on cycle 23 (and just on 50% on cycle 21). Now when you consider the sun is a plasma ball and the density of the plasma at the “surface” of the sun is equivalent to the density of the plasma 500 km above Earth (i.e. near Earth space) and even 350,000 km towards the center of the sun its plasma is still only as dense at the atmosphere 3 km above the top of Mt Everest it is easy to see why only slight gravitational influences might affect the rotation of its plasma (and hence its magnetic output).
    So what happened in Solar cycle 23. Well we know there was a near alignment of all of the gas giants and we also know that Earth would have crossed the path of this near alignment several times. It is also believed that the sun’s nuclear fusion reactor produces an almost constant output of energy but at the same time its enormous gravity plus its jet streams slow the release of this energy from the surface to between 100,000 and 250,000 years from the time it is created. So where did the energy that drives its magnetic output (sunspot activity etc) go? It can’t be destroyed and it obviously is not hiding somewhere in the sun so it must have been transferred to other bodies in the solar system. Perhaps Earth gets a wee bit of it through the tidal force interaction. Could this add an increment of heat to the mantle and is this why there seems to be more movement in tectonic plates during solar grand minimums as is suggested by a number of papers that suggest there is a link between the higher incidence of major volcanic activity and major earthquake activity to solar grand minimums.
    Now I don’t have any axe to grind or any cause to promote . I am not a scientist just an actuary. It will be interesting to see what real scientists have to say.

    1. Shall we say that if it has any effect, it is too small for it’s effect to be statictically observable – depite people trying. If we ignore magnitudes here, than in theory some effect is possible, but in practice far greater influences are needed to produce an observable effect on seismicity, due the the enormous forces at play here.

      1. Nothing small about the effect. The displacement is in the range of tens of centimeters up or down. What makes earth tidal effects insignificant is that the displacement is applied uniformly over a very wide area of surface. All of Iceland is travelling up or down in unison with those centimeters of travel

        There are coriolis tidal effects. There are magnetic tides. These vectors might have more influence

    2. The Sun is too far away to have any gravity effects on the Earth when it comes to volcanoes.

      Solar cycles are controlled by different mechanisms and are not influenced by the planet orbiting it.

  33. Sorry I posted as a reply.. Cannot delete ..

    Iceland was in a COL weather pattern overnight so light winds, plumes should go straight up. Hope we do not get too much low cloud.. A warm front straddles the area now so certainly will be plenty of Altostratus type. tonight looks a easterly breeze with high pressure influencing the weather, albeit weak. As a note of interest, there is Hurricane Edouard in Atlantic but will not effect Iceland as sticking to sub tropics then seems to fade. Looks good though.

    Friday a very flabble Low circulation with little wind and stagnant air followed by a weak ridge bringing fine weekend to Iceland. A depression next weeks sits in the usual place recently between Iceland and Greenland so southwesterlies will resume BUT in the medium range it seems low pressure centres oersistantly sit over Iceland , so any volcanic pollution will just sit around in the centre of those. Not good really but avoiding Europe in short term.

    Not a lot of difference on the models so it is likely to be correct.

    All the best and take care all…

  34. I don’t think that GPS spike was an “intrinsic error”… More likely ice cracking in my opinion. Hard to tell without raw data.

  36. Can someone tell me how far the camera is from the fissure? Looks like 25-30 miles. How far is the ice sheet behind in the distance? Must be a lot further than one thinks. Living on a rural escarpment I realise how distances can be perceived incorrectly.

    1. I did a rough calculation using Google Earth, and the camera is about 18-20 km from the active vents. The caldera is 55-60 km away – you can only actually see the edge of the glacier as a white band on the horizon when the air is really clear. Obviously, if this explodes, you will easily see it. The leading edge of the glacier, which appears as a grayish horizontal band below the white band on the horizon, is about 25 km away.

  37. Please remember we have had a couple of drops without any earthquakes, and the blue line that everyone is watching is a 3 hour moving average, I expect that it will level out after time.
    If you can change the MA to 6 hours manually and add two trend lines you can that it is moving sideways now with drops that form steps, small steps between drops are about 9-10 hours and larger steps about 25-27 hours. the last big drop was over 24 hours ago, well that is what it looks like to me after playing with the chart.

    1. On top of this please take attention that the 0 on the graph is not fixed, it is moving with the window of the graph moving.

      It would be more interesting to have the absolute measurement as vertical scale.

      1. Thanks for mentioning that Gwen, it would be helpful if we had an absolute datum measurement. I copy the chart most days and paste them together to try to get a better understanding. A nearly live chart is always history and will never tell you the future, but it might give you clues of what is to come.

      2. The moving scale is annoying, but there is an absolute measurement shown at the upper right corner, where it says “hæð: 1900.1 m”. When this GPS was first activated, the height was over 1902 m (I think 1902.4, but don’t remember exactly because it kind of bounced around a bit at the start). This, of course, is after the 20m drop that had been measured over the last few weeks. I would consider the starting point as somewhere between 1920 m and 1925 m and then just compare that with the actual value listed at the upper right of the chart.

  38. Few things to clear up.

    1: I will delete or edit out any religious nonsense that I see in the future. It has no place here since we are dealing with reality, not fantasy of your doom.

    2: The Moon does not have enough tidal force to have any effect on the Earth or volcanoes. It just isn’t massive enough and would need the mass of at least Saturn to have any effect in that direction (maybe Neptune) and any results in that direction would mean thousands times more volcano activity on Earth than is today (it would also mean no life on Earth and so on). The effect does work the other way around since clues have been discovered that the Earth might be heating up Moon core with tidal forces. But just barley.

    Details:

    http://www.nao.ac.jp/en/news/science/2014/20140807-rise.html
    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/08/140808110715.htm

  39. Exactly Jon! A TV documentary can not give a deep knowledge. Those should first think of something before they spread here with dubious knowledge any scenarios.

    :wq!

  41. I find the comments on gravity and tides hard to take seriously and being honest, dull.
    I am though in admiration for Jon and those who post comments which explain what’s going on in simple terms. Prior to Bunga getting active, volcano’s to me were mountains that went “pop” and smoke and liquid rock came out. I am far more educated now and informed of the forces that go on below.
    And to all of you and the brave scientists…………..thank you.

    1. You are right about the tidal rot the effect is insignificant. But satellite, air borne, ship and ground-based gravity surveys are major geological exploration tools which are utilized routinely. See the mosaic maps in here, they reveal hidden deep structures you’ll discover and map no other way.

      http://mines.industry.qld.gov.au/assets/qgmj/gravity_surveys_in_queensland.pdf

      Gravity mapping continental and ocean structures like that is worth trillions of $$$, which tends to relieve the boredom. 😀

  43. I agree with Jon within bounds, unless Jon also plans on deleting posts on the philosophical worldview of naturalism. Namely, no sectarian input regardless if it is from holy book X or simple minded traditions that reject all holy books as “goat herders’ manuals”. After all, it is easy enough to discuss the science involved with our limited understanding while deferring the details of the Creator to another forum. Considering that the scientific method was developed by followers of a certain religion who believed they were thinking the Creator’s thoughts after Him there is a basis for dealing with it.

    So, what we have going on now, to me, not only represents a nice scientific puzzle to be worked on, but also a sign of the glory of the Creator. Sorry Jon if this offends, but the philosopical worldview (aka – religion) that tries to suppress all other philosophical worldviews besides its own represents a particularly odious version of religion.

    BTW, I thought Rapture Ready was a great suggestion for that post, but in deference to not indulging in a sectarian squabble, I’ll defer my reasons why.

    1. The amount of off-topic discussion here is getting out of hand. I know it would go that way since after a while it always does. So I step in when I need to do so.

      With the amount of comments that I am getting I need to have some control. That is why I ask people to take some topics elsewhere. The internet is a big place and has enough room for everyone not every topic needs to be talked about here.

  44. I read earlier in a comment something about the gravity of Jupiter.
    This planet is so big that, had it been a bit bigger, it would have had sufficient mass to be a sun.
    In a scientific program on Geographic channel or Discovery I saw that on one of Jupiter’s moons, Tito there are also volcanoes and eruptions. The heat that causes these eruptions on Tito is generated by the super heavy gravity of Jupiter pulling at Tito. If I remember correctly, Jupiter pulls so strong at Tito that its pulling and let go movement causes friction (heat) on the surface of Tito. So in a way I think orbiting planets/moons with a gravity like Jupiter will have great effect on water and magma, but the gravity of our moon is only capable of generating tides. Like I read in another comment magma is to dense (heavy) and mostly locked up in a confined place (magma chamber) to be able to react to the pulling of the moon.

    Henk Weijerstrass
    Holland

    1. just some small corrections:
      “This planet is so big that, had it been a bit bigger, it would have had sufficient mass to be a sun.”
      The Jupiter would need a “small” additional mass like ~Saturn to form a Brown Dwarf “Sun”. >> Saturn is not small, and a brown dwarf not really a sun ; ).

      There is no Jupiter moon called “Tito”, maybe you ment Titan, but thats a moon of Saturn.

      IO, a moon of Jupiter owns ~150 active volcanoes. It rotates Jupiter in a bound rotation (e.g. one IO day is one IO year long). So the tidal wave is a static one for IO. So far it is not well understood, if the tidal forces are the main motor of the volcanic activity on IO. If it would, other moons of Jupiter (with an unbound rotation) should see even more drastical variating tidal forces, leading to equal, if not much more volcanic activity. If you are interested, have a look here first:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moons_of_Jupiter

      1. Been awhile since I’ve studied up on this, so my science might be a bit rusty, but I think the other major moons of Jupiter show lesser effects from this because they are further away from Jupiter. These tidal forces are what is believed to keep Europa’s sub-ice ocean liquid, for example. Ganymede also shows signs of major tectonic activity having taken place on its surface in the past. Io is the closest major moon to Jupiter, so it is affected most strongly.

        There are a few tiny inner moons, but these are just irregular hunks of rock which can’t support volcanic activity. All of the major moons (and the tiny inner moons) are tidally locked to Jupiter with synchronous orbital and rotational periods. The only moons with “unbound” rotation are tiny captured asteroids orbitting very far from the planet, which also are incapable of supporting volcanic activity.

  45. We are all eager to know what is happening in this huge volcanic area and many give ideas for future events and others try to explain what all the incoming information means.
    What I would like to say is that I am trying to focus on what I would like to see happen, and that is, that she, Bardabunga stays calm. Please can we all focus on that.

  47. It appears that one of the webcams looking towards the dyke eruption has looked away to a new area with the ground steaming, perhaps some lava approach the surface?

  48. Thank you Jon for your comment above. It would be helpful if we could self-censor so Jon doesn’t have to do it. I think he has enough on his plate.

    We come to this blog for informed comments on a specific topic. It is easier to just read comments on this specific topic rather then having to sift through the non relevant comments.

  49. Thanks Jon, I’ve enjoyed the sanity here. Lots of off topic discussion elsewhere and it’s nice to have somewhere where the discussion can stay meaningful and on topic. I’ve tried meaningful discussion elsewhere, it just goes over heads 🙁

  50. The point I put elsewhere for discussion (which was greeted with comments about Olives & Smegma).

    Previous large quakes have seen a big drop in the caldera lid, yet a 4.8 has been & gone with no noticeable change in drop, yet a small but definite drop continues as it was prior to the quake. Any thoughts on the mechanics at play here?

    1. The richter scale is logarithmic so there is a very big difference beteen 4.8 and 5.4.

      1. Yes, fair point, so we could be due another big quake today if the +50cm per day drop is to be maintained – and assuming the amount of magma being emitted is the same (which IMO say it is) this pattern shouldn’t really change.

        I also wondered if the caldera dropped, but the glacier didn’t as the quake wasn’t as strong and the glacier is effectively suspended over the caldera, hence the slow creep downwards?

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