Posted on by Jón Frímann

Bárðarbunga volcano update for Friday 16-January-2015

Not much change has been reported in Holuhraun eruption since Wednesday (14-January-2015). The lava field continues to grow and is now ~84 km² in size. SO2 pollution continues to be a problem in Iceland, depending on wind direction. Output of magma currently is 50 – 70m³/sec according to latest measurements.

150116_2040
Earthquakes in Bárðarbunga volcano for the past 48 hours. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Earthquake activity remains strong in Bárðarbunga volcano, with strongest earthquakes having the magnitude of 4,6. It has been a while since a magnitude 5,0 or stronger earthquake happened. GPS data show continued deflation of Bárðarbunga volcano, it has slowed down since the eruption in started by the end of August, this slowed deflation of Bárðarbunga volcano shows that magma continues to flow out of the magma chambers inside the volcano. Earthquake activity in the dyke continues, all of the earthquakes so far are minor earthquakes, most having magnitude less then 2,5.

Far as I know there is nothing else to report from Bárðarbunga volcano at present time.

Change in update schedule: From next week I am going to change the update schedule for Bárðarbunga volcano. From next week I am just going to update two times a week. The updates are going to be on Tuesdays and Thursdays. The reason for this change is that most of the time now nothing major is happening in Bárðarbunga volcano. If anything major happens I am going to post update soon as I can about what is going on.

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Article updated at 22:18 UTC.

104 Replies to “Bárðarbunga volcano update for Friday 16-January-2015”

  1. Friday
    16.01.2015 18:53:44 64.665 -17.414 7.1 km 4.3 99.0 6.1 km ENE of Bárðarbunga

    Friday
    16.01.2015 17:43:53 64.662 -17.367 0.9 km 4.0 99.0 8.0 km ENE of Bárðarbunga
    Friday
    16.01.2015 17:38:19 64.667 -17.384 7.5 km 4.5 99.0 7.4 km ENE of Bárðarbunga

    1. I think they’re wrong about the output as much of this is now going into tubes apart from the visible flows. I believe the output to be relatively unchanged it simply looks less as there is less visible gas emmission from it, as the magma is more degassed on reaching the surface.

  4. Swarm occurs near Torfajokull this morning.

    I think there must have been a M2.5 or even M3 at or near Landmannalaugar and east side of Hekla. But not much more than that, otherwise I would have felt it. But signal is rather large in the drumplots, at least a M2-M2.5 at the very least. Earlier today there was also a M2 there. I dont think its at Hekla because signal is lower at Haukadalur. It is further east. But good to keep an eye on Hekla as yesterday there was a quake there.

      2. Earthquake wave duration were short in drumplot and Hekla webicorder. Earthquakes were shallow too. And low frequency spikes in tremor plots.

        But I am not an expert, and especially i dont have access to detailed earthquake data.

  6. Due to complications having PayPal in Iceland. I am moving PayPal back to Denmark next week. I am also going to change the direct donation bank account (this website, http://icelandgeology.net/?page_id=212) back to my Danish bank account.

    I’ve figured out today that I won’t last in Iceland and once I have the financial capability to live in Denmark I am going to move back there. Even if that is going to take me ten years to do so. Currently I can’t afford to live in Denmark, even if I want to. It is going to take me few years (how long exactly I do not know) to change that for good.

  7. Jón, sorry to read that you are finding being back in Iceland tough. Let’s hope that you are able to move to Denmark or somewhere else you want to go sooner than you expect. You seems to be quite a determined, original thinking and resourceful person and these assets will I am sure come to your assistance given a little time.

    1. I’m a Icelander and I don’t “fit” into Iceland. I don’t know when I can move back to Denmark. At least not while my income is only from social welfare. So I am going to be living in Iceland for the next 5 to 10 years.

  8. Jon,

    Sorry to read of your struggles . . .

    FWIW . . . (For Whatever It’s Worth) . . .

    I don’t know if being (PRIVATELY) more transparent and vulnerable with those who have donated to your mission would help any, or not. Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn’t.

    I just hate seeing you struggle in so many ways so often.

    . . . particularly without my being in much of a position to do anything significant about it.

    Are you able to do any “team building” in your local area . . . There must be SOME folks who have SOME openness to your priorities, values, personality etc. Might not be easy . . . but if you’re likely to be there for several years, at least . . . it would be better to make such effective connections and bonded relationships than to be isolated, feel like a duck-out-of-water, etc., imho.

    It seems like lots of folks all around the world are having to make uncomfortable or difficult compromises to function very well in our era. Sigh.

    1. I won’t isolate me more than happens naturally in such small place that I am going to be living for the next few years.

      All of last year (2014) was a struggle, so was the year 2013. For me this is now just a question of how I manage to get such income that I won’t have to be on social welfare from Iceland (at least in such a way that I don’t have to depend only on it). It is going to take me a few months to short that detail out. This has to be long term solution, short term solution is only good for that. That is what the donations here help me with.

      This isn’t much of a struggle as such, this is more of a problem for that I have to find a solution to. I will get there, it is just a matter of time until I find the solution that I am looking for and apply it in the real world. Finding the solution and applying it is going to take some time until the results appear.

  9. Thanks for your kind reply.

    I hope you have at least a handful of folks locally or online . . . with whom you can brainstorm toward such solutions.

    Cheers.

  10. Bardarbunga quake. Must have been a M4.5 event. I was outdoors and couldnt feel a thing this time. This one can’t be that strong. I tend to feel Bardarbunga quakes around M5.2 upwards.

    1. Another small quake, around M3.5-M4 at Bardarbunga. Probably we will see a M5+ in soon. I will try to catch a feeling of this one, by going outdoors for a walk. Its a calm eerie clear night, any large quake and I will be able to feel and hear it well.

  11. Have not used this but it’s free today for iPad and hopefully works as well as googles
    “This third-party keyboard for iOS 8 allows users to communicate with friends and other contacts in their own language, where the keyboard translates all outgoing messages from your end into the target language. According to the app’s description, the keyboard supports “both forward translation and reverse translation within keyboard.”
    At
    http://www.redmondpie.com/you-can-download-6-mac-ios-apps-absolutely-free-today-18-value-in-total/

  12. Jon I have heard that Iceland has some friendly and outgoing choral groups that are an uplifting and spirit boosting experience. In fact we were supposed to tour there last year and that would have been a substantial warmup for us . What has also been an unexpected bonus is the networking opportunities this provides . Now I can’t sing well but there’s a lot of joy in just participating as a group. Especially when you need a motivational boost to attend anything in our Dark cold windy winters . Mean temp lower than -20c for 4 consecutive months last two winters. We welcomed March 2014 with a hi of -30 .and low near -40C/f and blamed it all on Grimsv 2011

  13. Magnitude mb 4.7
    Region ICELAND
    Date time 2015-01-18 07:35:52.9 UTC
    Location 64.75 N ; 17.42 W
    Depth 10 km
    EMSC

  18. Hi Janet I think they there taking pictures , It is that big black raising cloud that is getting me.

    1. Lava fountaining again? That could mean a bit of ash mixed into the gas clouds which would explain the dark colour.

  20. Since a week back or so, the earthquakes seem much more scattered all over Vatnajökull than earlier. How to interpret this? Is this basically a result of fresh magma entering the system or something else?

  21. I was also wondering that. They are much more scattered and make me wonder if the lava is going backwards and forwards and sideways and any way it can find to try and get to the surface.

    What is the latest info for the caldera drop these days? How many metres has it dropped in total?

    1. The GPS station in the Bardarbunga caldera is down again, unfortunately. But since the trend of subsidence has been very clear since the onset of this whole event, one can guess that the drop is now ~35 meters and slowly stabilizing.

    2. Eqs and lava flow are not directly connected. There are tectonics and heat aspects to consider too. The 3d plots do however show a tube from 12km up to 100m from the surface. This could signify a possible pathway opening up.

  22. There is something going on I think. The harmonic tremor on two SIL station has changed, it did peak and drop again, but it might be increasing again. I am not sure what is going on and it might take few hours until I figure out what is going on.

  23. I have a question which I am hoping you guys could answer. Are the small swarms of quakes around the island that we are seeing be due to the rifting. I mean, is this due to the plates moving and adjusting ?. I have noticed that activity is becoming greater in areas that I have not seen before.

    1. If you mean the pattern of quakes within Iceland to be seen now: This shows at the moment rather well the portion of the MAR (Mid-Atlantic Ridge) ie. the diverging plate boundaries traversing Iceland with two obvious angles. http://www.vedur.is/skjalftar-og-eldgos/jardskjalftar/natlantshaf/ Also the small quake swarm at Langjökull, ie. in the western part of Iceland shows the dying western branch of the rift zone.

      2. Thanks for answering, having a good read right now. Iceland is indeed very complicated to understand.

  25. Sunnudagur
    18.01.2015 05:48:11 64,665 -17,055 9,5 km 0,7 99,0 14,8 km SSA af Kistufelli
    Rather deep quake under the dyke this morning. New batch of magma mounting from a deep reservoir?

    1. This deep source basalt magma is degassing CO2 at a few kilometers depth, so any changes in deep magma supply will come with pulses? The magma being erupted is possibly a smaller proportion of the magma influencing the shallow depths of the caldera, the amount of magma involved must be enormous, with the associated heating and potential magma mixing of the shallow caldera?

      2. And in another of his posts, he said that the magma chamber under the volcano could contain about 100 km3. http://vulkan.blog.is/blog/vulkan/entry/1448119/

        On the other hand, there are also different theories about the form and content of magma chambers and reservoirs under Bárðarbunga, eg. about the regional reservoir (A. Gudmundsson), etc.

  26. According to Rúv News cracks have formed in north end of the crater. The crater is 80 meters high, 100 meters wide and around 500 meters long. At the same time the south end of the crater is cooling down and starting to become inactive (short of).

    Once the north end of the crater collapses there is going to be a rush of lava from the crater to the north, north-west and west direction.

    3. This also means that the dyke has continued to expand to the north. Not as fast as in August-2014, but it is on the move again. Once the collapse happens the view is going to be interesting (weather depending). The crust next to the dyke is now soft due to all the heat, earthquakes might be missing when this happens.

  28. On 3dbulge at baering.github.io there is a 3.9 EQ at a depth of just 100m under bb of 6 hours ago. Also a line of smaller eqs from the surface a few hours old. Mabe a pathway to the surface opening up.

    1. No. Havent felt it.

      I have to be rather quiet to feel a M5+ quake at Bardarbunga, and at least M5.2. And then its usually only at evening or night that I would feel them.

      Indoors those quakes are like a subtle vibration and sometimes far away thunder noise. Similar to a passing high altitude airplane, or a windgust but only for a sec or two. I think most people will never pay attention to it. But outdoors at night, when things are quiet, then it is easily perceived. But then the threshold seems to be M5.2 or something like it.

      However people in Akureyri (north of Iceland) feel them much better than we do here in south Iceland.

  31. What’s up with that little flurry of quakes around 6:00 south of BB, E of Hamarinn and NW of Grímsfjall?

  32. Could these earthquakes be related to whats happening in Iceland.

    They are in the sea north east of Ieland.

    Magnitude mb 4.5
    Region GREENLAND SEA
    Date time 2015-01-19 06:31:13.2 UTC
    Location 73.30 N ; 6.52 E
    Depth 2 km

    Magnitude ML 2.3
    Region GREENLAND SEA
    Date time 2015-01-19 06:38:42.6 UTC
    Location 73.31 N ; 6.40 E
    Depth 10 km

    EMSC

    1. I think this is just the northern part of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. There is no direct connection to Iceland, too far away.

    1. I think the subsidence is not a good “point of view” .T think that subsidences & Holuhraun are separated things, even if they are relationed being part of the same magma intrusion . The subsidence can stop, but the eruption can continue… or backwards.

      2. I wonder whether he’s taking his measurements from a different point – though even so, 24 metres is quite a bit to lose/gain. My Icelandic isn’t good enough, but it doesn’t look to me as though there’s anything in the comments about this; can you see anything, Inge?

    3. His plot fits a parabola to the subsidence data, and gets a good fit for the data so far, but it is not good for predicting future behaviour. If you project the parabola beyond about day 160, it starts rising again, and gets back to where it started after about a further 160 days!

      I’m an engineer, not a geologist, and to my mind an exponential decay is a more appropriate curve to fit to the data. It is what you would expect from an emptying bathtub kind of model. I’ve done a plot using a spreadsheet, and the formula y = 45 * (1 – exp (0.011 x)) produces a reasonable fit visually up as far as around day 120. From there it continues down and would eventually reach 45 metres subsidence (from where the data started, which I think is the installation of the GPS monitor)

      Perhaps someone with better tools than I have could refine that and post an inageto compare the two models?

  34. It is so interesting to read about other peoples thoughts on this eruption and where it may possibly go.

    I honestly think that we are in the lap of gods as to what/where this will end.

  35. Look at the further quakes in the Greenland Sea :

    Magnitude mb 5.0
    Region GREENLAND SEA
    Date time 2015-01-19 12:31:50.2 UTC
    Location 73.31 N ; 6.41 E
    Depth 2 km

    Magnitude Mw 5.4
    Region GREENLAND SEA
    Date time 2015-01-19 12:45:11.8 UTC
    Location 73.31 N ; 6.25 E
    Depth 2 km

    Magnitude Mw 4.7
    Region GREENLAND SEA
    Date time 2015-01-19 13:09:35.1 UTC
    Location 73.28 N ; 6.33 E
    Depth 2 km

    Magnitude mb 4.7
    Region GREENLAND SEA
    Date time 2015-01-19 15:05:48.4 UTC
    Location 73.29 N ; 6.21 E
    Depth 2 km

    EMSC

    4. It is not related to Iceland in any way. This might be just an earthquake swarm or a deep ocean eruption. No way to know since the area is under ~2 km deep ocean and far away from land (~2000 km).

  36. Have found this on the internet regarding the Mid Atlantic Ridge.

    .Slicing through the center of Iceland is the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. This is the boundary between the North American and Eurasian tectonic plates. Tectonic plates are the enormous slabs that make up the earth’s crust. The North American and Eurasian plates are slowly separating, at a rate of about three millimeters each year. There are many places on the Earth where two tectonic [not continential] plates are drifting apart, but most of these sites are deep under water. Thingvellir National Park, in southwestern Iceland, is one of the few spots in the world where an underwater ridge rises above the water surface. This enormous geologic rift has created spectacular scenery, including dramatic cliffs and Iceland’s largest natural lake.

    http://epod.usra.edu/blog/2010/08/mid-atlantic-ridge-in-iceland.html

    1. ..Because Iceland lies on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, it is being split by the movements of the shifting tectonic plates. The plates are moving apart, one to the east, the other to the west, and both the North American and the Eurasian systems are moving to the northwest across the hotspot. On top of hotspots there is generally a 20-100% molten layer at the depth of 5-20 km, which supplies sufficient material for eruptions. Iceland is home to more than 100 volcanoes, around 35 of which have erupted in recent history. The volcanism on Iceland is attributed to the combination of Mid-Atlantic Ridge activity and hotspot activity. Eruptions occur about every 5-10 years and primarily consist of basaltic lava and tephra. A few long-lived centres, such as the volcano Hekla, erupt more silicic magmas. The hotspot causes eruptions within the southern volcanic zone including volcanic systems such as Mt Hekla, Vestmannaeyjar (the Westman Islands), Katla caldera, Eyjafjallajökull (Eyjafjallajokull), the Laki area and the western subglacial part of the Vatnajökull (Vatnajokull) area where Grímsvötn (Grimsvotn) volcano is the most active.

      http://www.icelandontheweb.com/articles-on-iceland/nature/geology/volcanism

  37. Monday
    19.01.2015 16:44:25 64.669 -17.452 7.6 km 4.2 99.0 4.8 km NE of Bárðarbunga

  38. I have a question:
    If you theoretically had access to unlimited equipment and technical resources how deep below the surface of Bardarbunga would you be able to accurately map before the results became unreliable or impossible to get?

    1. They can measure down to ~100 km with earthquake imagery. They can measure for whole Iceland down to 600 km. It is impossible to see deeper with current level of technology.

      1. Thanks Jon. If it is possible to accurately map to those depths why is it so difficult to map out magma chambers? Is it because the equipment is not available at this location?

  40. There is a M4.4 at 09:45:55 that says it’s manually checked and all, but it must have been stronger?! It’s visible in practically every drumplot, and the other M4s since midnight are very tiny in comparison.

    Oh, by the way, look like another M5 happened just now.

  41. Magnitude M 4.4
    Region ICELAND
    Date time 2015-01-20 10:32:24.9 UTC
    Location 64.31 N ; 18.04 W
    Depth 2 km
    EMSC

  42. De-lurks
    There seems to be a big uptic in activity, I wonder how many more M4+ earthquakes can go through Bardarbunga? I am astonished how resilient the Caldera has been under this constant activity.

      1. Hmm, but did we not also implicate that there could be hydrothermal upheating within the volcano? I thought that upheating is – a.o. – intensifying the erosion effect, as is said here eg: “Sector collapse (…) may be facilitated by hydrothermal weakening of volcanic edifices.” http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/22/10/945.short

        This was also shown during the Askja landslide last summer, see eg. https://davemcgarvie.wordpress.com/2014/08/02/askja-volcano-26-july-visit-to-the-2223-july-2014-landslide/ Which even shows both: hydrothermal alteration and rhyolite rocks which were not stable at all, but in the contrary rather prone to erosional effects.

        And I can’t imagine that most of Bárdarbunga volcano would consist of rhyolite magma … I think, most of it will very probably consist of basalt (as also shown by the tephra found in different peat bogs resp. sea ground analysis around Iceland and abroad.

      2. The structure of the edifice and the eruptive state of any shallow magma body are different things? Rhyolite magma is possibly quite stable if gas levels are not critical and would just ooze out through weak spots in the rock structure causing heat related effects?

  44. Magnitude mb 4.4
    Region ICELAND
    Date time 2015-01-20 11:22:59.3 UTC
    Location 64.54 N ; 18.07 W
    Depth 10 km
    EMSC

  45. Score in twelve hours. Considering depth and location: magma rising?
    20.01.2015 11:57:54 64.610 -17.385 1.2 km 4.4 99.0 7.6 km ESE of Bárðarbunga
    20.01.2015 11:22:54 64.601 -17.371 3.0 km 4.2 99.0 8.6 km ESE of Bárðarbunga
    20.01.2015 10:32:23 64.609 -17.430 3.0 km 4.7 99.0 5.8 km SE of Bárðarbunga
    20.01.2015 09:45:55 64.655 -17.374 5.4 km 4.4 99.0 7.5 km ENE of Bárðarbunga
    20.01.2015 08:22:10 64.666 -17.460 2.5 km 3.3 99.0 4.3 km NE of Bárðarbunga
    20.01.2015 07:32:21 64.666 -17.422 6.8 km 4.0 99.0 5.8 km ENE of Bárðarbunga
    20.01.2015 05:51:25 64.665 -17.369 2.8 km 3.3 99.0 8.1 km ENE of Bárðarbunga
    20.01.2015 05:30:40 64.676 -17.427 8.4 km 3.2 99.0 6.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga
    20.01.2015 03:57:38 64.679 -17.428 6.2 km 3.4 99.0 6.4 km NE of Bárðarbunga
    20.01.2015 03:54:26 64.666 -17.455 6.7 km 4.1 99.0 4.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga
    20.01.2015 01:30:20 64.671 -17.470 4.1 km 4.0 99.0 4.3 km NE of Bárðarbunga
    20.01.2015 01:29:13 64.673 -17.393 7.4 km 3.9 99.0 7.4 km ENE of Bárðarbunga
    20.01.2015 01:26:55 64.674 -17.447 9.2 km 3.4 99.0 5.4 km NE of Bárðarbunga

    1. The swarm to the E-SE is unusual. It should signal a small drop in that part of the caldera. Dike activity is up also.

  46. De lurks again

    Has anyone else seen the massive spike that just went through Jon’s geophones today at just after 3.00pm? It had a different signal signature from a normal EQ?

    I will defer to those who are far more technically minded than I am?

  47. Tuesday
    20.01.2015 15:44:42 64.617 -17.417 1.4 km 4.1 99.0 5.9 km ESE of Bárðarbunga

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