Posted on by Jón Frímann

Daily update on Bárðarbunga volcano, 15-September-2014

This information is going to get outdated quickly.

Current status at 12:59 UTC

  • Largest earthquake so far is a magnitude 5,4 that took place at 08:04 UTC.
  • Caldera has so far dropped 45 cm of today. Largest drop took place during the magnitude 5,4 earthquake and that lowering continued for two to three hours after the earthquake.
  • Eruption in Holuhraun continues at similar rate as yesterday (14-September-2014). Now it is mostly one crater that is erupting. The flow of lava is also not powerful enough to cross the river. So now it is spreading out from the central crater in all directions.
  • Earthquake activity has been moving south along the dyke. This means there is higher risk for earthquake eruptions under the glacier. There have been several minor eruptions under the glacier already.

Current status at 20:51 UTC

  • New vent has opened up south of current eruption. I can’t tell from Míla web cameras if this is a new vent or just old vent getting active again.
  • Most of the eruption continues in the central crater at the moment.
  • The rifting phase of the activity in Bárðarbunga volcano is going to take months to finish. In that time there are going to be more earthquakes and more fissure eruptions. There is also high risk of new dyke intrusions going into other directions from Bárðarbunga volcano.
  • If the Holuhraun eruption ends, a new one is going to start soon after in different place of that dyke. It might be on glacier free area or under the glacier. There is no way of knowing that for sure.

Still more on comments

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Article updated at 20:51 UTC.

291 Replies to “Daily update on Bárðarbunga volcano, 15-September-2014”

      1. My theory:

        What appears to be happening is the caldera lid starts “creeping” as the caldera drains of lava, which is the usual quakes and the “ticks” that can be seen on the drumplot. Eventually the lid gets stuck and so much stress builds that it breaks free and takes a big drop into the void that has formed beneath it.

        Impossible to predict the size of the next quakes, but I’d guess if a void is building again below the lid we’ll start seeing a sequence of smaller quakes as the lid settles, then the ticks, then another biggie.

    2. There is an earthquake before the magnitude 5,4 earthquake. Then there is also a smaller earthquake after the magnitude 5,4 earthquake. Difficult to know the magnitude from this drumplot.

      1. The one before has a different shape, it does not peak at the front. Is this the signature of a certain type of quake not involving rock?

      3. Inge, meant “mainland” europe. they look at protection for EQ on the land, close to the shores (<1000km), in the mediteraean (most important in case of tsunamis) and close Atlantic (from canarias). from someone working there I can tell Iceland is not in the main "EMSC zone" (call it Europe or not)

    1. North of Mora. In the middle of nowhere, but I bet it scared te sh*t out of the few that live in that area.

      Solid rock crust as well…

    2. My officemate and I felt that one here in Oslo, Norway.
      It just felt like my office chair shifted a bit back and forth, and after a couple of seconds it repeated again.
      We thought it probably was an earthquake, but some other guys across the hall hadn’t felt anything, so we weren’t sure.

    3. I was going to post the quake in SWEDEN.
      It is unusual. That is not far from Iceland.
      I have also seen mid-Atlantic quakes on that fracture zone which runs thru Bardabunga.
      How much are these related?

  3. The subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera continues. According to GPS
    measurements the subsidence in the centre of the caldera is about 50 cm over the
    last 24 hours.

    50cm = 20 inches. with the over all size of the volcano at 70 plus Km around is this drop really a cause for concern.

    Just a Q:

    1. Yes, very much so. The “lid” is likely now the wrong shape so has lost it’s strength to support the surface and eventually gravity will do it’s thing and it will crumble. If the “dome” hasn’t inverted yet, it is almost certainly fracturing from all the quakes.

      If you build an archway it is a strong structure (i.e a tunnel, a bridge) – turn that archway upside down and it will fall apart.

      If the lid falls in and allows the lava to interact with the glacier, that is a huge concern!

      1. Thank you for the arch analogy….I don’t know why I never thought of that until you posted it. 😀

      2. Im also looking at the whole scale. 17.25 feet from the 5th of sept till today with the size being 70 plus Km for the volcano does not seem like much.
        Just putting that out there.

    2. My guess would be that given normal geological timescales where movements are measured in mm per year, 50cm in 24 hrs is huge, but like I say I’m no expert.

      1. Not just 50 cm in a day, but there is an accumulated drop of around 20-25 meters over the past three weeks or so. I can’t think of anywhere I pass by on my daily routine where I could see an area the size of a city 20 meters below where it used to be and say to myself, “yeah, this seems normal.” 🙂

  4. It looks as if it is doing pretty much what Jon said it would do, though should the roof of the crater collapse then as long as there is not too much water then perhaps the bulk of the pressure may be channeled along the route of the present fissure so dissipating some of the energy resulting in a more active fissure for a time, then as the pressure drops it will hopefully start to plug itself and then settle down.
    A far better scenario than previously. It has been interesting but I for one really do not want to see this mountain go off. Too much of a risk to life and limb.
    This blog is addictive….in a good way!!

    1. If the roof of the caldera collapses there is half a mile of 1/2 to provide oodlings of water. It won’t stay ice for long once the 1200C heat from the magma gets to it!

      2. I have to agree Stilton, whilst the fissure eruption has provided some amazing footage, I don’t think any right thinking person would want a volcano of this size to erupt on a grand scale. I have visited Heimaey and saw what the ’73 eruption caused. Sensationalists may want action but the people of Iceland do not. Come to think of it no one in the Northern hemisphere should want it either.

      3. Only a few percent of the ice would have to melt for it to begin progressively blast the remainder clear of the crater. And there’s no reason to think the ice or water will be remaining in the crater more than a few seconds if it really kicks off.

        The good news is the activity is declining for now so it’s entirely possible the roof holds and the system goes back to sleep for a few months, or a decade. That said it’s been 537 years since this system last blew and if you accept the return period rule of thumb it’s about due for a new lid.

      4. “Only a few percent of the ice would have to melt for it to begin progressively blast the remainder clear of the crater. ”

        The problem is that at that depth, under hundreds of meters of ice/water, water will not flash to steam even at those temperatures. As long as there is half a kilometer of water/ice on top of everything, it is going to be very hard to get an explosive phreatic explosion going. It would look more like a hydrothermal vent. In the case of a catastrophic collapse of the caldera floor, all bets might be off depending on how quickly that volume of water could be boiled off.

        This is why I keep saying that we should look for any steam or changes on geothermal activity in the area of the caldera. Steam rising from glacial cracks would be a pretty bad sign, in my opinion.

    2. Any crack in the ice can change the pressure regime at that base in the blink of an eye. The ice is not going to remain solid, there are deep cracks in it already, and continued quakes and or deflation will accentuate their propagation, so a few percent of ice melt at the base will be enough.

  5. At the IMO site, are you all getting

    The graph of earthquake timing and magnitude was not found

    instead of the current earthquakes. Does that mean they have technical problems or are they censoring it?

  6. Where’s the water? A few people on this blog have brought up this question. Has the water found its way to a fissure/deep cave under the glacier? The water doesn’t seem to be showing up above ground, it must be going somewhere.

    2. The caldera is bowl shaped. A large amount of the water can be sitting on the surface with the glacier basically floating on it in places.

      1. Water also takes up less volume than an equivalent mass of ice — so melting could also maybe account for some of the subsidence on the glacier surface?

    3. Aren’t we talking here foremost about the water from the small subglacial eruptions from fissures outside of the caldera? There it would be important to know on which side of the water divide it was.

      There is now a fast increase in water discharge (rennsli) and water height (vatnshæð) in the rivers Djúpá and Hverfisfljót to the south of Vatnajökull.
      Water height in Djúpá: 220 -> 290 cm (from about 11:00 yesterday til now, still increasing), water discharge in the same river: 37 -> 118 m3/sec (same time span); and there was also a top on 31.8.2014 (370 cm; vs. 254 m3/sec).
      (IMO: http://vmkerfi.vedur.is/vatn/vdv.php?p=0&station_id=218&page_id=384&direct=1 )
      Water height in Hverfisfljót: 280 -> 420 cm (from about 11:00 yesterday til now, still increasing); and there was also a top on 31.8.2014 (472 cm).
      (IMO: http://vmkerfi.vedur.is/vatn/vdv.php?p=0&station_id=218&page_id=384&direct=1

  7. I know it’s only trend lines, but it looks like it keeps dropping significantly even without a major quake… ~25cm in the last hour (similar to yesterday’s drop, after the 5.3 quake)

      1. Yes, because the GPS sensor is on the ice, not the bed-rock it takes time for the ice to settle. Don’t forget also to iron out inaccuracies in single readings an average is taken over a 30 min / 180 min period. So no one glance at the latest readings can give you an accurate reading – you need to be looking at readings at least 3 hours old otherwise you will keep seeing changes as they average out.

      2. It may be, but it didn’t happen at the previous ones. In fact, it looks like the biggest drop in such a small interval. I know, it’s not a linear fenomenon and it cannot be predicted.

  9. I think when we start to see the subsidence accelerating rapidly, we are within a week or so of the eruption coming to the surface. Until then this is a long stew.

  10. IMO hydrology chart shows much flow both above and below Vatnojokull, perhaps the water has its own ways through caves etc, which may help things a bit.

  11. Interesting stuff happening on the tremor graphs just to the SW and SE of Grímsfjall, but since Jón has mentioned this can sometimes be caused by wind, I don’t know if it’s significant. Specifically, the stations are Húsbóndi (hus) and Vöttur (vot). Haven’t seen much activity down that direction yet, but maybe something to keep an eye on.

    2. That’s the right link, and it isn’t showing up for me either. I figured that’s what would happen to the GPS when the whole glacier collapsed, but the view on the webcam is fine and there was no massive EQ, so probably just a temporary glitch.

      1. Remember that it is just standing on ice, which could have cracks in it. It could have just fallen down a crevasse of all sorts. It could also be to low now to successfully transmit. Radio waves do not travel well though rochk and ice. Alternatively it could have just gone wrong/ be overloaded.

  13. Thanks Jon and all commenters for bringing me up to date after a day of work.
    I should not go privately to the Internet, but a small look at this page I dare now and then …until I’m home again.

  14. The webcam right now is reminding me of just how beautiful Iceland is, how unique, and how much all of us have to learn from nature at work.

    2. I too have been thinking that these are some of the most striking cloud images I’ve ever seen. The landscape over the glacier is so beautifully stark and bleak.

      1. Iceland is the dreamland of photographers. Ever changing weather conditions and ever changing light. 🙂
        Jökuldalur eg. is normally not the most fascinating or diversified landscape, but this year it sometimes was so beautiful just because of the alternating of light and shadows.
        Showing this effect, there is a picture of a landscape not far from Bárdarbunga (photo is not mine): http://isafold.de/thjorsarver01/img_abend.htm

  15. http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947
    Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection are in attached Factsheet in PDF (0.3 Mb).
    “The eruptive activity at Holuhraun and the subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera continues at similar intensity as yesterday. Scientists had to leave the area because of bad conditions so there is no new information about the progress of the lava flow.”

    1. wonder what the “bad” conditions are? As they usually refer to the gas emissions.

  16. The University of Helsinki’s Institute of Seismology says that there were a number of observations of Sweden’s earthquake also in south-western and central Finland.

  17. Last night I saw a very distinct cloud formation right over glacier rift when the winds were were light. Reminded me of the last time when Jon called an eruption under the there. Water flow had increased in the river. I see today that the river is up a bit from yesterday. Very possible a very minor surface intrusion happened under the glacier. I don’t know if one could call it an eruption but magma is probably so close to the surface, that minor events are likely to take place without much evidence. A second large lava fountain appeared last night as well at the current site, so maybe just a slight uptick in overall activity last night for a time from the eruption to under the glacier.

  19. I am a layperson but I noticed increased seismic activity (USGS site )over the last few weeks in tectonic areas not as predictably active as the ones surrounding the Pacific ‘ring of fire’
    It looks like as if there is increased stress on Eurasian plate showing with higher seismic activity at junction were it meets African and Arabic plates. Furthermore , if you draw line from iceland with its recent seismic activity through Northern Europe (with today earthquake in Sweden) and Romania ( recent quake) both of which are not on a plate boundary make you wonder if there is an unknown fault there or a new one in the making ( obviously long term geological times). It also would be interesting to see from GPS readings if mid Atlantic Ridge is widening slightly faster than usual where the Iceland activity is taking place. Any comment?

    1. Simple … zooming in using a longer effective focal length (telephoto) renders the image more vulnerable to even light shakes, movement, such as wind, etc.

    2. Mila 2 is zoomed in more, so it exaggerates any shaking, but I also recall someone posting a picture of Mila 1 “from the outside” and it appears to be inside a very stable shed/metal box anchored into the ground. Since Mila 2 was added specifically because of this eruption, it is probably in a more temporary structure not so well protected from the elements, and more easily shaken. Add to that the effects from zoom…

      2. Mafl — I’m thinking cam 2 would be the one out on the mast – that right there would explain the shaking! Cam 1 must be in one of those little domes on the roof..?

        It sure looks like those masts have cell-phone antennas attached. Is there really mobile service out in the literal middle-of-nowhere?

      3. I think I read, that they put the whole thing up on this mountain, because of the scientists…it was a station they installed for an festival (airwaves?) in Reykjavik for the mobilephones of the visitors…but don’t know if it’s true…
        But you can really use your mobilephone in the middle of nowhere…even in a mountain hut with electricity for half an hour per day 🙂

  23. Would you prefer “ash”-storm? Or “really-little-pieces-of-lava-washed-down-from-the-glacier”-storm? 😉

  24. I am not going to mention clouds tonight !. Has there been heavy rain in the area today?
    If you look at the river to the right of r2d2 you can actually see it moving, it is far larger than earlier than yesterday could this just be rain.

    1. I first thought that it is larger, but there is dust in the area. As it was clear i made a comparison with older webcam pictures I took – and it’s almost the same.

  25. I was going to ask if someone had a picture. but have another look there my eyes must be getting bad !!!!

    1. I have to check against old screenshots at least once a day — and the light keeps changing so I have to find shots from roughly the same time of day and similar clouds — almost always leading to a half-written comment being deleted before being sent. 🙂 This morning it was about the black streak in the glacier over R2. Definitely darker than previously, but only relative to the recent snowfall.

    2. If Bardabunga will erupt, it will be clearly visible. It will not be a small cloud of steam, it will be really huge and will leave no doubt about it. Anything you see now is just clouds, fog, dust devils od dust storms. Also it will be clearly visible on quake/tremor plots so until that is the case, just relax.

      1. If the caldera erupts, yes. Big and obvious. But fissure eruptions under the ice are still a real possibility. Clouds of ash, or steam are possible. And since there have been a couple of those already that didn’t break the ice, it’s not a huge leap to think more can happen that might or might not break the ice.

      2. This is true if the caldera blows, but it is possible that other smaller eruptions might appear along the fissure/rift or where the dike passes under the glacier without triggering a huge earthquake or a massive explosion.

        No harm in trying to identify suspiciously shaped vapour clouds or extra-high river levels, as long as we don’t mistake them for “the Big One.” Certainly, if the caldera explodes, there will be no doubt whatsoever.

      3. Should have refreshed before posting… since I basically ended up commenting the same thing StridAst did. Oh well.

      5. Just realized, with that video whistler posted, that the background image on the Mila website is from that same eruption of Grímsvötn.

  27. Thanks Wial, I am just going to keep an eye on it, pllease don’t bother looking for old photos as it is very hard to see it now. if it has increased we will be able to see it in the morning.

  28. Jon, I would like to know your opinion on this:
    I think Askja is the perfect example to apply to Bardarbunga.

    It is a volcano near the hotspot and also along a rift area. The caldera at Askja collapsed after a fissure eruption. Something similar is happening now at Holuhraun.

    I would say that both Askja and Bárdarbunga started their collapse centuries long ago, after several big eruptions, and it was the fissure eruption in early 1875 (a rather small one) that drained the chamber until it became too unstable and started sinking until it exploded.

    Question is why?
    Was there a glacier on top of Askja before it erupted? I am starting to think so.

    Askja measures roughly between 1000 to 1600 meters of altitude, possibly taller before its 1875 collapse.

    Now, Hofsjokull, Katla, etc, are all ice-filled calderas of similar size and similar altitude. Why is Askja not glaciated?

    I think Askja was glaciated prior to 1875 and then the ice played a large role in triggering its caldera formation: water available, pressurized system, and a collapsed caused by magma drained from the chamber,

    We have same ingredients now at Bardarbunga.
    It is just a matter a time until Bardarbunga collapses in a violent eruption similar to that of Askja.
    But looking at the hypothesis above (the caldera of BB sinks in several steps after each of its eruption, since thousands of years), then there is a change that the caldera might only collapse fully later at a future eruption.
    However I think the collapse is quickly accelerating to the point of no-return.

    1. There have been consistent patterns of small EQ’s at BB over several years, but nothing that drew attention to them, since Katla and Hekla were the ones everyone was more concerned about.

      That might fit in with you idea Irpsit, and as you say the activity has accelerated so maybe it is picking up speed. I am imagining a 10km wide plug of rock and ice weighing millions of tons moving would have an enormous momentum even at comparatively miniscule speeds.

    2. That’s a very nice comparison and very relevant I think. Just one point, why Askja doesn’t have ice. Another explanation (or part of explanation) could be that it is on a dry side of iceland, protected from the moist from seas by higher mountains/icecaps. Just next of it Herdubreid is 1660m heigh and has almost no ice on top. Katal/Myrdalsjokull is a bit lower but on a wet side.

  29. Jon, if you could also comment on these two things:

    First, the region around Holuhraun is full of shield volcanoes. Do you think that we could be experiencing the birth of a new shield volcano? Eruption is becoming localized to a single vent and developing a slow but steady eruption rate. A shield is even already visible in the pictures. But small, of only 0.4km3.

    Second thought: that the major drive behind the major event taking place is tectonics.

    As plates move apart quickly, there is a void, and magma tries to fill it. And the fissure unzips open you only see earthquakes at that spot. Bardarbunga caldera is also opening and by opening it sinks down. But the caldera is also the starting point, so there is a sort of rotating behavior to the west side of the opening fissure, that is the microplate of Hreppar, which is probably rotating now counterclockwise, or even jerking around, between the movements of the two tectonic plates, between a clockwise and counterclockwie movement, and this is why GPS showed weird inversions of trends in Vonarskard and Hamarinn stations, near the Bardarbunga caldera.

    This is of course complicate to understand, and so I am sure that the most of Iceland is now completely different in terms of tectonic pressure, tension and relief of tension. Some regions gained a lot of pressure, while others were relieved of it.

    Another example: Laki opened in 1783. Shortly after in 1784 a sequence of the largest quakes in south Iceland (Hreppar) occurred, and also a major rifting event in the Thingvellir or west volcanic region. Go back in history and you will find similar examples of large rifting in Vatnajokull joined with other big events across Iceland.

    Jon, I would appreciate to hear your opinion regarding the different matters I wrote.

    1. Haraldur Sigurdsson, the volcanologist was also asked about the possible formation of a shield volcano in Holuhraun (as an Icelander, Irpsit, you’ll know the Icelandic word for that – dyngja). http://vulkan.blog.is/blog/vulkan/entry/1440799/#comments (comments 1-4)
      He said that most of them had been formed in interglacials or after Ice Age and were not connected to central volcanoes resp. volcanic systems. Also that the lava they consisted off would be thinner (less viscuous) than the one erupted now, so probably no formation of a shield volcano here.

      1. Then, if not a shield volcano what are the likely outcomes of the current eruption, and is there evidence of analogous events apart from the original line of cones along that fissure? Is it at all possible we’re seeing the birth of a new “central” volcano, for instance? I know it’s coming from a dike off BB’s caldera, but it’s also coming from great depth. Could a dike develop its own direct line to the mantle and magma chamber?

        No doubt the hypotheticals above are unlikely, but what is likely?

      2. If there is no change in the mechanics, caldera collapse. ~ 200 meters of subsidence *at most* and the glacier’s own structural integrity will start to fail as the center drops beyond the line of the rim. This should be considered a tipping point, as load on the caldera lid will increase dramatically.

        See here: http://bardarbungavolcano.com/Home/News/88

        We are already seeing some subsidence cracking in the glacier as the rim holds up but the center drops.

        I see no way that the caldera will be able to stabilize short of collapse once this point is reached. The glacier won’t get lighter anytime soon as water can only leave this caldera by being blasted out by the volcano.

        I am agnostic on whether it can stabilize before this point is reached.

      3. That point is at 45 meters drop according to my calculations. With error margin of +- 10 meters. That is the point of no return and Bárðarbunga caldera is fast reaching that point.

  30. I had a quick look (in English) but i do remember seeing footage of the encroaching ash cloud from Grimsvotn in the Jokulsarlon Mila webcam from the 2011 eruption.
    Perhaps someone could look for it in Icelandic.
    I was looking for it to post a link so everyone could see what a perspective ash cloud might look like from Bard should things go that way (& not have cloud clouds mistaken for ash clouds).

    1. You wouldn’t see a thing. Because the webcams would probably be facing the ash cloud and darkness. Especially those of Valdalda (current ones) and Kverfjoll. The Jokulsárlon would probably also get plenty ash fall into it. The best view point would be from a bit afar.

  31. In the footage you saw the ash cloud come in from the top left of the webcam… all i can find it a picture!

  32. In terms of water follows there has been a hint on the webcam one of the river to the centre expanding and splitting into a number of channels. More recently the river to the left has looked broader. Over this time the lighting has changed slightly but the shapes and number of channels look distintly different. I suspect these are smallish changes in flow but possibly show something is happening under the glacier.

    1. Trouble is the rivers are also backing up due to the lava dam, and there’s been some rain, so it’s hard to say what’s causing what.

      1. There is a fantastic clear view of the two or three vents now as the weather has cleared up . it looks fascinating.

    1. Seems like a reopening (or re-fountaining) of one of the vents from early on in the eruption, but I’d have to overlay images to be completely certain. Either way, it’s an increase in activity over the past couple of days.

  34. I just saw on cam 2 the flame brighten A LOT.
    there is 3 or 4 flames in the one – if that makes sense to anyone.
    Its like more opened up. – there is a baby vent to my left of big flames.

    1. The Icelandic scientists, it seems had the same idea as you, they called the big central vent Baugur and the small ones Baugsbörn (the children of Baugur). 🙂

      1. hehehe 🙂
        cam 2 seems angled different – they’re watchin it close.
        I can get silly watching too much. Earlier today the flame looked like it was stretching and doing arobix. I said silly.

  35. Wow! Fissure looks more active tonight than it has been for a couple of days. Looks like several craters may be active, plus one on it’s own to the far left as you look at it.

  36. The one on the left I noticed about 3 hours ago while looking at the river. I don’t know if it is an old one started up again. but there was lots of white smoke coming from it , I was thinking that it was steam from where the river came into contact with.

    1. John i would say that is a new vent opened as it appears on Mila cam#1 to be in front of the original fissure by some distance and not further along(towards the Graben).

      1. it seems, that the new (or old) vent spews the lava pretty high.. especially when you think about the distance to the cam..

      2. I thought this is not a vent, in front of the main fissure, but a new active zone on the lava flow.

      3. I would agree with you on that one frederic I was thinking the same. it has suddenly started. It was white hot earlier on

  42. Would the increase in lava flow suggest that the sinking caldera is forcing magma out into the dyke? I imagine that would be the best case scenario, in spite of the SO2 concentrations in the air.

    1. We don’t know with any certainty that what is happening at the top of the ice where the “collapse” is being measured is also happening at the crust under that ice. We could have a combination of some deflation in the caldera along with some ice melt going on. Imagine you have a glass full of crushed ice and then imagine that it begins to melt. At first the surface of it will drop from the top (while at the same time, liquid water will rise from the bottom). But if you are only looking at it from the top and can not see what is going on below the surface of that ice, it would look like the ice is “collapsing” but the bottom of the glass is quite stable.

      At some point in the above scenario the ice would begin to float and the surface level would then stabilize but until that happens, it would appear as if the surface is collapsing.

      Bottom line is that I am not fully comfortable saying that what is happening at the surface of the glacier is a mirror of what is happening at the crust at the bottom of the glacier. What seems to me most likely to be happening is some combination of changes to the crust and the surface and the ice in between. Exactly what the nature of those changes are will remain a mystery until we can see through hundreds of meters of ice. How deep into the ice is RADAR able to “see”?

      3. Considering that there are sudden drops when the larger quakes occur, its hard to pin that part on melting. Also consider that there are GPS stations moving towards bardarbunga, which can’t be explained without the caldera subsiding. Melt would not account for any of that. Besides, for a drop of 23 meters you would need a couple hundred meters of ice to melt. That much melt would be enough to show caldrons on the glacier surface directly over the greatest heat. We only see caldrons outside the caldera at the moment.

        I would be shocked if there isn’t ice melting to some degree, however it isn’t likely to be the main part of what is causing this vertical drop.

      4. If there was an eruption in Bardarbunga big enough to be melting a material amount of that glacier, it would be violent as all hell already.

  43. I have been curious about the effect of solar / lunar tides on climate. Since they affect the oceans, could they also affect magma? The Italians seem to have identified an effect on Mr. Etna:

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL028190/abstract

    Here is a tide table for Reykjavik:
    http://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Reykjavik-Iceland/tides/latest

    Note that the last perigean spring tide was on September 9 and the Holuhraun lava flow has been decreasing since then. The next spring tide will take place on Sept 25. What will happen then?

    1. Yes they do…but the ocean tide time table is not one to one accurate…maybe on a islands like Iceland more then elsewhere…maybe it smoother to calculate it for the crust than for the water, because the mantel is much homogeneous than the ocean surface?!? Long time ago I got the info that the Swiss Alps (>4km) are going up and down around 1 m in one cycle…don’t catch me for the #…

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_tide

      Just from feelings, I would say that the high earth tide in Iceland is when the moon (and sun together=earth spring tide!?!) are over or short before the Dominican Republic on this map:
      http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html

  45. Excuse me and please to meet you,
    1- The wave form of the 5.4 that happened this morning coud not be an Harmonic
    ( Tornillos in Colômbia) sign that magma is rising by the caldera? the same thing as a water hammer?
    2- There would not be some kind of unconscious denial by the government and the public to recognize that THE VOLCANO IS ERUPTING RIGHT NOW? and the right thing to do is run way?
    cheers

  48. Is the bight area of lava about half way between r2d2 and the main vent a “new” vent that isn’t shooting lava very far up?? (not much gas either)

    1. Earliar on i suggested this might be new vent but others believed it to the tip of new leading edge of magma flowing. Im still not 100% convinced of that yet.

  49. Some of the drops have been associated with quakes, some of it hasn’t been. There are just so many possibilities. What happens to that glass full of crushed ice from my thought exercise above if you shake the glass? The ice drops more. The bottom of the glass hasn’t moved. We’ll know soon enough if the level of water under the ice in that caldera rises enough to find an outlet somewhere.

    Provided there is much water under that ice.

  50. Tides have effect but so do solar flares, and the one the Space Weather said would MISS us to day, is now affecting us a bit. Look for the “lights” tonight. Not sure if it affects volcanos, but is associated with earthquake increases and decreases. We are in an increase earthquake risk or A level currently according to some scientists.

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