Current status on Bárðarbunga volcano at 19:30 UTC

227 Replies to “Current status on Bárðarbunga volcano at 19:30 UTC”

1. For me, the last few hours with fewer earthquakes suggests one of two things;
   1. Bardarbunga is settling down – this could also tie in with the gradually weakening fissure eruptions.
   2. The cork is stuck in the neck of the bottle, i.e. pressure is building in the bardarbunga caldera. If this is true then we ought to see inflation on the GPS station on top of the caldera. Is there a link to it online?

   Keep up the great work Jon. And everyone else – please keep the comments constructive.

   1. If it were settling, though, you would think the magma incoming would be reducing? Don’t you think? So, therefore, there wouldn’t be any inflation at the dyke…In other words, if it were reducing the magma incoming would be reducing along with the lava output. Am I making sense?

   2. The primary reason for the change in earthquakes is a storm that makes earthquake detection difficult. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a real change too, but we have no way of knowing that at the moment.

   3. if the cork was stuck, I think there would be more quakes as the rock comes under increasing stress (pressure). the fact that there are few large quakes near DYN and large lava flows, and a subsiding caldera roof indicates to me that is good fluid connection between Barda and DYN (no stuck cork). The quakes that are at Barda are mostly due to the subsiding caldera roof (IMHO)

      1. I believe what the real danger is is that , while subsiding ,some part of the Caldera roof could fracture and allow water direct acces to the the magma! Then things would get really nasty considering the volume of water/ice above and magma below that could potentially interact

2. prevention is better than cure 🙂

3. Jon, I am curious. I am sure this isn’t the first RUV has put a banner up similar to the one above. When they do so, do you have a general idea how long before something usually happens? For example…hours, days, weeks? I am assuming not hours though.

   1. It’s immaterial, as they don’t know anything until it actually happens. So past records are simply what they are and not predictive of future events.

   2. Time scale is not known at the moment. But they are using it to prepare for what is going to happen soon.

      1. Jon, any thoughts you can share as to why you tend to think a caldera eruption could happen sooner within weeks versus months of subsidence? Does water and the frequency of large quakes factor in here?

         Thanks! BTW, great job on mediating the site. A lot of interest now from a variety of people with divergent interests and ideas. Quite its only kettle of soup 🙂

4. Thanks Jon, hoping everyone in Iceland a peaceful outcome to this seems the longer this goes on the more the mood changes.

   These people will have possibly been given facts which we are not aware of.

   All the best.

5. Shes been quiet all day, now a 3+, perhaps some more lifesigns to come now in the night.

   1. Looks like a slip on the plots to smaller tremors just before the quake.

6. When they start putting banners up, that’s not a good sign, also do they know more than they are letting on. Jon if more magma is going in to the dyke than erupting do you think it could erupt somewhere else on the dyke.

   1. He mentioned that in the update….here you go 🙂

      ◾More magma is flowing into the dyke than out of it. Eruption has not yet increased yet, this also increases the risk of new eruptions along the dyke.

      1. Under the glacier chances must be increasing, should look for activity at the fissure eruption that is closer to the glacier as this must surely be a weak spot to hit first.

   2. Think of all the stations they built up. The data are not public. If we can understand and exactly analyze all the data is another question.

7. Earthquakes might have stopped because it has “cleared its throat” and now has a clear enough path that it is no longer breaking rock. It could also mean that the rock has now softened from heat enough that it will deform without cracking and so not cause any quakes. That the dike area is still inflating and that the amount of material being erupted has not diminished means this is not done yet. The path to the main vent might now be clear enough that the magma can flow with less pressure and doesn’t reach the other vents. But again, since the dike area is still inflating says this is not over.

   1. It needs to be said again that the ring faulting is a totally different animal than the dyke quakes.

   2. I guess the operative question right now, is what magnitude and range of earthquakes can the storm obscure? I’d think biggish ones would punch through, but if enough stations are disturbed by a gust at a given moment, would that make it impossible to confirm even large quakes?

      The pattern of larger quakes is nearly stochastic, so we can’t conclude too much on a few hours of silence from them either.

8. Seismic activity just picked up on the IMO site.

9. Increased activity?, maybe another M5 (+) on the way!

10. Jon, Hope You are not planing to move back to Iceland on a plane. Just joking. Hope for all that they stay safe all time.
    What are your thoughts if it come toa major eruption will it affect the upcoming winter? May it get colder? And what is your personal timeframe? In the beginning of this event you were right with you estemated timeframe of an possible eruption!
    To all I still hope that all will calm down Nd nothing more will happened. Be safe all time

11. It should be restated that this is not an eruption for tourists! A lot of that “bad weather” at the fissure is toxic gas, dangerous to several kilometers away. Bardarbunga may also cause additional sub-glacial fissues without warning (new gas, flood) or erupt at the main caldera without warning (not many places safe anywhere near the Vatnajokull glacier, including in the air).

    Stay out and take bets on if the Mila cameras live.

12. What sort of ‘surface’ is this Holuhraun lava field on?
    If it’s sandy or gravelly & the like than surely any decent glacial flood would remove a large amount of the new lava… wouldn’t it?

    1. It’s desert sand, old volcano ash, rock, no plant life at this location to mention.

13. Thanks Jon.
    So in places the lava is not on ‘solid’ ground.

14. Thank you for keeping us updated, Jon. These developments are concerning, and my thoughts are with the people of Iceland at this worrying time.

    1. Amen to that! My prayers are with them.

15. When will the lava block the river at Valdalda? Tonight or tomorrow? See also http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/myndsafn/full/Yfirlit_20140911_12.jpg
    (Don’t know if it was posted already, from IMO)

    1. I was just thinking and trying to find out how wide and deep the river is where it is blocked.I expect it will find a way round the obstruction or form a catchment area.

    2. IMHO the river will just flow around the lava while it is on the outflow plain. From photos on t’interwebs, there is a river, the Svarta, which joins right below the Vadalda hill, with a very picturesque waterfall. There is then a small gorge downstream.
       I’ll attempt to link a tinypic diagram, I’m sorry but I do not have the attribution details atm.
       http://oi59.tinypic.com/zkhhrn.jpg
       The lava may well block the river completely here and cause the long-predicted, but so far absent, lagoon to form.
       Once it finds the next low point, it will start overflowing there. The geomorphology of this area is certanly in for big changes. I find it absolutely fascinating. I really wish I could be there to see it all happening.

16. I’ve been watching a person and a vehicle at the Mila-1 site for almost half an hour and wondering why anyone would be there this time of night.

    1. It’s 2 people, probably servicing/checking/calibrating the r2d2 radar. I hope they wear gas masks….

       1. I too was thinking of the gas and hoping they have some kind of respirator. It just seemed odd that they would out there at midnight.

    2. Isn’t that the Bardarbunga2 camera?

       1. Yes, it’s Bárðarbunga-1.

17. I helped develope a sond back in the eighties with othogonal geophones that could be placed kilometers underground. The geophones were then protected from wind noise, the 3 orthogonal sensors measuring a vector and the compression(p) and transverse(s) wave time difference giving the distance along the vector to locate the eq. A network of these across iceland with built in gps would, using tomography would allow mapping and monitoring of underground reservoirs.

18. Dunno, the tremor plots at Askja seem to be going up…

    Still, no big quake tonight so far, I think the stress just acumulates, so sooner or later we will see a strong quake close to 6

19. Exacta still think a big eruption is possible in there latest posting, and the current high sulfur levels will cause mega winter for Eurasia.

    https://www.facebook.com/ExactaWeather

    What are your thought on this Jon? They have stronlgy maintained this sulfur thing and laki and cold winter since day one, prior to any eruptions of magma

    1. “ExactaWeather” is frankly a fraud who shouts from the rooftops that each and every winter will be cold; he happened to get it right back in 2009 and 2010 I believe and created that company/whatever to rake in money. Mixed in with some basic meteorological knowledge, he makes himself appear knowledgeable to the less informed.

       It’s true a major eruption could lower temperatures, but take everything ExactaWeather says with a huge barrel of salt! Even if I did trust what they have to say on the weather side of things, I’d rather listen to volcanologists on the probability of an eruption taking place…

       Just my two cents 🙂

       1. Absolutely agree. Don’t take anything Exacta Weather says too seriously.

       2. They seem to have got a lot more right than just 2009 and 2010. They have a run of summers and some record breaking spring from last year that appeared in all the British press before. They also got our winter right in the United States by saying it would be cold in 100 years and that’s what happened. I bought the forecast many months before and I think there are copies of all they have got right here http://www.exactaweather.com/Accuracy.html don’t look too much like a fraud to me and it will be interesting to see if they have called this volcano right above others. Just my take and my two cents 🙂 peace out and much love

       3. You also say rake in money? unless I’m mistaken exacta weather was free and voluntary for many years for Britain and US. As this one says from there accuracy page; voluntary firm prove met office wrong again
          http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Voluntary+forecaster+proves+the+Met+Office+wrong+-+again.-a0243768585

20. My prayers and thoughts go out to the people of Iceland, especially the one’s that have respiratory problems.

21. It depends where you are Lizwallis; here in Holland we’re 2 hours ahead of Iceland, zo from my point of view it’s only 22:37 hours in Iceland (here: 0:37).
    Kind regards,

    Henk Weijerstrass
    Holland

    1. I believe Iceland is five hours ahead of Eastern daylight time in the US. But you’re right–I was counting six hours, not five.

22. Article has been updated with information about the SO2 pollution information.

23. Time lapse video of today’s view of Bardarbunga1.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4nnEA-bnyg

24. You also say rake in money? unless I’m mistaken exacta weather was free and voluntary for many years for Britain and United States. As this one says from there accuracy page; voluntary firm prove met office wrong again
    http://www.thefreelibrary.com/Voluntary+forecaster+proves+the+Met+Office+wrong+-+again.-a0243768585

    1. They make their money by flogging their predictions to the tabloid press, especially the likes of the Daily Mail/Daily Express (and incidentally I expect the annual “UK to freeze in arctic winter” story to make it’s appearance fairly soon) and they have frequently been spectacularly wrong. Thats the last I’ll say on the matter because I’m sure Jón doesn’t want his blog cluttered up with this stuff.

       1. Seems odd that the British press would buy information from a firm that is unreliable or wrong. They must have reason for using them like all the ones they got right, or am i being thick here? Isn’t long range weather like geology and this volcano situation – an inexact science? Sometimes there will be errors or unknown situations or limited information on the outcomes. Still be interesting to see the outcome even more now. PS there United States forecast says nothing about a big freeze this winter, so it’s not an annual story for us.

       2. Kevin Howe, this is the tabloids not the broadsheets. The tabloid press will print anything – including made-up lies – to flog lots of newspapers. It’s their raison d’etre. They don’t care if it’s true or not, just as long as the headlines sell.

25. Seems official preparation are being put in place. Not something that is done publicly without expectations of a major negative event. Better safe than sorry so well done to the authorities. The main downside is I am due to arrive on the island within 12 hours or so… watching events and dsta closely here.

26. It is mentioned above by Robert that if major portions of meltwater will hit directly into the magma chamber the result will be “nasty”. So far this was not mentioned anywhere – as far as I know – but would that mean a similar outcome as the final (fourth) explosion on Krakatoa (if it was caused by the exposure of the magma chamber to seawater which is one theory)? Does it make a difference of saltwater or meltwater hitting magma would be the next question.
    What might happen if … by 10 km diameter ice up to 850 m so somewhere around 50 to 60 km³ of water …10% = 5 km³ meltwater would direclty hit the magma chamber?

27. Well I don’t trust Exacta Weather, the most accurate weather is sticking your head out the window. As for predicting a cold winter due to activity in Iceland rubbish, they are not volcanologists, nobody knows what is going to happen, yes it could be bad, but I rather listen to people that know what they are talking about, than some trumped up weather forecaster who can’t predict the weather right.

28. This is not a weather site. Dont hijack this blog. Keep it clean and focussed. Emotional monkey thinking argumenys can go elsewhere. Use your frontal lobe logic stay cool and focus on whats happeninh here.

29. Hi Jon
    As we know the caldera has dropped by around 21 meters. What is happening to the melt water is it running off or collecting into a lake.

    I love the mila webcams I was glued to them in the 2010 eruption.

    Thanks for your updates Jon great work

    Regards
    Scott

    1. I haven’t seen any reports of meltwater, at least in the caldera. Not sure if they could know. They do know the caldera rock itself is subsiding based on the seismic data.

       The other new cauldrons are likely caused at least in part by ice melt from subglacial eruptions, but as far as I know there hasn’t been one yet in the caldera. Could be wrong though!

       Early on after the first subglacial eruption in August there were reports of the meltwater running off to the south and raising the subglacial lake level at Grímsvötn, but I haven’t seen any updates about this. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B%C3%A1r%C3%B0arbunga#28_August

    2. There is no way for water to get off the caldera while it is intact. Anything that has melted will sit at the base of the glacier until there is an eruption.

       1. There was talk about water from the subglacial fissure to the southeast of Bárdarbunga having run into the Grímsvötn caldera lake.
          As far as I remember, prof. Magnús Tumi Gudmundsson said in an interview that the eruption site was at the drainage devide between Grímsvötn /southern Vatnajökull and Jökulsá á Fjöllum / northern Vatnajökull.

30. so2 levels at 4000 , somebody’s gotts start running evacuations. I’ve been in industrial plants and evac level is around 30. safe level is around 3. and the mila cam is looking pretty thick.

    1. Latest news is that the levels have dropped back down to 200µg/m³. That might just be a temporary drop in one location, depending on wind direction.

31. Everyone is entitled to there opinion, I wasn’t looking to cause trouble here but be more fair towards what they are saying and what they have actually predicted correctly. So we shouldn’t listen to them and they can’t forecast the weather right even though what I posted shows different. Maybe there coldest winter in 100 year forecast for last year was a fluke then after all. Who knows what they are talking about you say? There is only Jon or exacta saying anything, all the others are keeping quiet and keeping us in the dark. So Eddy you are saying that Exacta are wrong about the sulfur and a big eruption then? This is all I asked originally? So there will be no major eruption and no bad winter if I am to take your word as this is what they saying. If that is the case they are wrong and you will be right. Peace out and much love and no harm meant here guys.

32. I agree andy and we should get back to the volcano, some people just asked how this might effect weather and I posted a link to exacta and weather channel. I am just a fair person and speak the truth of what I see, not the distorted view of others or be led like a sheeple. This whole situation is very discerning and the more info we have the better, we’ll so I though

33. *Ahem*

    The fissure looks to be closing down looking through the webcam right now, still activity but much reduced. Activity could of course pop up again, but my best bet would be on this shutting down (as is standard in events like this) and a new eruption cropping up somewhere along the intrusion.

    Perhaps in the graben region or maybe in the old second short lived fissure area. We shall see 🙂

    Furthermore, it looks like we’re seeing more small earthquakes in the caldera itself as opposed to just the larger ones. Interesting development, not sure what this means mind.

    Jon – any update on the graben that you know of? Has it widened further? Cheers 🙂

    1. I don’t think the eruption is dying down. There appears to be heavy fog in the area at the moment, blocking the view.

       Last I knew the status of the dyke was around the same as before. It had not started to widen again, that is not to say it might not start again without warning.

       1. I base it off the glow on the plume – The intensity of it seems pretty even all over whereas if there was fountaining you’d expect to see a greater light intensity near the base, visibility issues or not. Hence I suspect it is the glow off the lava lake instead. Guess we shall see though, and I of course respect your better judgement!

          And thank you very much for your answer – Do find this fascinating, wondering what Bardy’s next move will be…

          On another note, things look to be heating up again in the caldera – Many quakes seem to be taking place in the N/NE region, most recently a 4.7.

       2. I agree that it’s not closing down. Are the sulfur levels likely to reduce Jon? And can if enough effect United States?

       3. This SO2 levels won’t get to U.S. It might get to mainland Europe since it only 2000 km distance at the most (wind direction pending) for the closest locations.

          For the U.S this cloud has to go the long way around. When it gets to the U.S it has been watered down to almost nothing.

34. Rumbling Bardabelly …. 6 EQ >M3 in last hour….

35. Lots of 2+ and 3+ M in the last hour. But the eruptions in the dyke seem to have died down. Does this mean the eruption is happening elsewhere? Just an interested lay observer so I have no Idea…

    1. A 4.7 at 7.1 km depth …

36. Mount splatten article and pictures from Indonesia. Could all these eruptions be connected anyone/Jon?

    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2014-09/12/c_133638502.htm

    1. The eruptions are not connected. The reason is simple, it is happening in other part of the world. Don’t let random chance fool you.

       1. Thanks. What about solar influence? Or still just random? keep up great work and I will also make a donate for your hard work this weekend

       2. The Sun does not have any effect on volcano eruptions on Earth.

       3. Actually if you draw a long, long, long bow you will see that half of Indonesia is on the Eurasian plate – the same plate which divides Iceland.

          The Boxing day 2004 Great Sumatra quake occurred along the boundary of the Eurasian plate and the great Indo -Australian plate. However I cant recall the 2004 event causing any upheaval in Iceland.

       4. Jon you said the sun does not affect a volcanoes eruptions. The sun does have a small gravitational pull on the earth. The moon on the other hand has been much closer this past week.

          Also Jon in 2010 the jet stream shifted right at the wrong moment. Do you think the jet stream and the 2010 eruption where coincidental. I know the jet stream is stuck in place at the moment. This is bringing us nice high pressure of the UK at the moment..

          I do find interesting the tornadoes that we saw show that there is some interaction. It may be far fetched but perhaps there are interactions that we cannot see or monitor.

          Regards
          Scott

37. Ok, so if we’re all done arguing who’s meteorologist has the biggest radar, anyone care to discuss the large uptick in EQ activity in the last hourish?

    1. Sorry didn’t see your post. Yes, noticed that too.

       1. Noticed it too. Is the cam working for anyone else? Both Mila and B 2 cam are not working for me

38. Looking at http://baering.github.io/ I see a sudden increase in the number of biggish eqs under the caldera, about an hour ago, middle depth.

    4.7 38 minutes ago 7.1km
    3.1 an hour ago 7.6km
    2 an hour ago 5.1km
    3.4 an hour ago 8.6km
    2.2 an hour ago 8.2km

39. The most worrisome thing about this whole event in my opion is the “slowness” that it is unfolding in. Magma is lacking speed but, as a consequence is “speeding” gas. Bardarbunga is slowly collapsing but is also building up an immense amount of energy. It is extraordinary what is taking place.

40. Looks like eruption settling down some. Fountains not really visible. Can see steam well enough in the fog, but a very diminished glow tonight. What has it been now, almost 2 weeks of eruptive activity? A little break in the action should be expected as we wait for more interesting things to happen here. Icelanders really could use a break from the heavy SO2 coming from this fissure.

41. I wonder if there are bright aurora tonight. Is it me or is there a pink glow off the steam? Really hard to tell, but I know aurora activity is going to be strong tonight. Going to head out later tonight here in N MN and check things out. Forecast looks good. Hopefully a colorful display instead of just green. Reddish-pink colors can happen which is why I am wondering about the color of the steam in cam 1.

    1. I was out with the wife between 12-1 am trying to spot the northen lights but we had to much fog and haze.

42. was chatting to an engine tuning friend a short while ago,he reminded me they use water as a performance enhancer in engines,something to do with density,that may seem off topic but it got me thinking.
    Everyone is asking what happens if alot of water suddenly arrives on hot magma, well yes you will get a big bang, the real trouble starts if the two mix!!
    This causes the water to separate into its component parts, H2 O, you now have the ingredients of a gigantic fuel air bomb.
    aka krakatoa, maybe this is wrong, but it seems to make sense as similar things are used under controlled conditions.

    1. Based on a graphic that’s been circulating recently the lid/plug/cork over the caldera is quite thick — so it would take some major events that haven’t happened yet to really combine the water and lava. More likely a relatively thin vent would open from the magma up alongside the lid. Then I’d guess the question is whether that can precipitate a snowballing series of explosions, or not.

    2. Water does not separate into hydrogen and oxygen, an electrolytic reaction is required for that. It is used predominantly in supercharged and turbocharged engines to reduce knocking at high compression where it is very good.

       The danger of water hitting magma is its expansion ratio of 1600:1, it will flash to superheated steam, plus the mere contact with molten magma will cause a violent reaction. Equally cold rock falling into magma will also cause a violent reaction –
       https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kq7DDk8eLs8

43. There was a recent news article that plumes from deep magma do not exist and that rather chunks rise up. The Mid Atlantic Ridge spreads over the eons and does not seem like a chunk. What is it? Iceland is very interesting like an unusual small continent. Why is Iceland so high up and big?

    On the subject of weather, which seems to me pertinent to the topic as it is the big potential consequence of volcanic explosions, I do not recall anyone mentioning the effect of ice melt on Atlantic current flow. Fresh water does not sink and this has known fact historical examples. Is there a chance enough glacier could suddenly melt for such an impact?

    1. Re. the hot spot theory vs. convection theory:
       I saw some Tweets from geologist Erik Klemetti ( http://www.wired.com/category/eruptions ), who said most geologists were still backing up the hot spot theory and the other would also be 10 years old.

44. Please note that activity can and does drop down in this activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. I don’t know why that is, it just happens.

45. The heat from under the caldera must be melting the ice above, water is denser per cm3 than ice and thus weighs more, it can’t escape, this would also drop the height of the ice cap above and explain the crevasses seen from above.

    The real concern must be this melt water entering the magma chamber, the ice above will act like a seal on a pressure cooker allowing the pressure at the heat/water interface to increase until such point the seal gives way with explosive force.

    Working in aviation we have had zero info from our agencies about events unfolding since the August threat level was raised, excellent work Jon

    1. The caldera rock itself is dropping. We know this from the nature of the caldera earthquakes. We don’t know, to my knowledge (which is limited, to be sure), that the heat in the magma chamber is penetrating to the surface of the rock in the caldera enough to melt the ice there — yet anyway. The subsidence of the rock itself is sufficient, I believe, to explain the cauldron and its cracks.

       I don’t think we know if any water from the surface is reaching the magma chamber yet. There is however water mixed in with the magma already as there is in most if not all magma, and its potential behavior will in some part determine the nature of the eruption even if no water from the surface penetrates (which it very easily could, and could already be doing).

       Obviously the dike on the other hand has penetrated the surface in at least 2 places, probably more like 6 counting the subglacial ones, and those cauldrons are formed by ice melt in addition to changes in the rock.

       I wonder if it’s possible to tell the difference between an ice melt cauldron and a ground subsidence cauldron by looking at them.

46. Well, it looks like fountain activity increased a bit.

47. I think it’s the same as it has always been, we can just see it better from the camera now that the weather has cleared some. Also, they are going to build up spatter cones around the vents. Last I read said the vent has now built up cones some 70 meters high and that information is somewhat dated.

48. If/when she erupts, will it be visible on the Jokulsarlon cam? Because the lite up “smoke” from Holuhraun(?) is visible from it: http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/jokulsarlon/

    If they just pointed it slightly upwards.

    Please pardon my lack of scientific terms, really new to this.

    Also two(one might be stupid) questions for you Jón:

    1.) Regarding donations – do you accept donations in bitcoin?
    2.) People in the comment section have mentioned that if/when Barda goes, it might be compared to large eruptions such as the bigger ones of Krakatoa or Pinutabo? What’s your take on this? Or is it just doom talk?

    And i repeat my self: I’m new to this stuff 🙂 I live in Scandinavia, so although Iceland is remote, it feels close somehow.

    1. 1: No, I don’t.
       2: This is going to be a large eruption, how large is impossible to know until it happens.

49. The weather forecast calling for light winds and clear skies today. Although eruption is creating its own weather in the area. Should be decent viewing today into the night before next front moves through Sunday.

50. Vulcanologist Mike Rampino suggests that the 1883 Krakatau event was caused by the mixing of two different aged magmas. There was a large earthquake in 1881 which may or may not have triggered the initiation of the co mixing.

    Mike Rampino’s conclusions at (or least were) controversial with other Vulcanologists. At least Mike had done the research on the ground with the VSI – unlike some other noted “alleged” earth scientist/vulcanologists I saw wondering around the bottom of Sumatera with sunglasses and a trailing BBC Film crew.

    1. Sorry, this comment is in response to Stilton no cheese. Some how the posting order became confused

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