Posted on by Jón Frímann

Special Report: Update 2 on the eruption in El Hierro

This is a special report on the eruption in El Hierro. This is also a good time (as any) to announce that I plan to write about volcanoes in Canary Islands in the future. As I plan on moving to the Canary Islands in about 10 years time (no reason to start late on this). But I have already induced the Canary Islands volcanoes into my personal watch system. But I have my own personal system to watch volcanoes in Iceland and now Canary Islands. However, Canary Islands are not part of my personal emergency system until I move to Canary Islands.

Update to the name of this blog is going to happen soon, but I am not sure when. But I am going to move in a about 10 years time (going to live in Denmark until that happens). Until then, they are going to go into special report group and only major events are going to be blogged about. Please note that this might change if I move earlier to Canary Islands then I now plan.

******

The eruption in El Hierro volcano continues today, as it did yesterday. But the strength of the eruption appears to have dropped today from what it was yesterday. But this does not mean that the eruption is over. It just means that the current fissure that is erupting is about to close up, mostly due to the material that it has been ejecting into the ocean floor. That means a new fissure or vents is about to open up somewhere. When and where is impossible to know. But this is the nature of volcanoes that erupt in this manner, but El Hierro is a shield volcano [second link here]. Good examples are Krafla volcano and Vestmannaeyjar Island volcano. Both of those volcanoes are in Iceland.

Today around 14:20 UTC there was a sharp tremor drop in El Hierro. This means that the magma flow dropped in the current eruption fissure. This also means that if the pressure is not enough that fissure is going to stop erupting. Because of this has happened a new fissure or a vent should be expect at any time as I have told before. When and where that might happen is impossible to know, as that outcome depends on where the magma finds its pathways inside the volcano. There might not be any earthquakes before this happens, as the rock is unlikey to be hard enough to make them. Some small earthquakes might happen if the rock layer is hard enough. Today few deep earthquakes have been recorded. This means that new magma is getting into El Hierro volcano from the mantle (where no earthquakes happen). This also means that this eruption might take place for some time now. But it is impossible to know for how long, as there might be a lot of magma flowing up from the mantle it self and up to El Hierro volcano.


The harmonic tremor and the drop in the harmonic tremor today. Copyright of this picture belongs to Instituto Geográfico Nacional.

Many people have been wondering why this eruption has not been seen. The fact is that depth drops quiet fast around El Hierro Island. Around 4 km out the depth is close to 1.5 to 2 km, it is only close to the island that the depth starts to get shallower. At the moment is is hard to say what happens next in this eruption on El Hierro. But more vents should be expect to open up then have already have.

I am going to update this blog post if anything changes in El Hierro volcano eruption.

592 Replies to “Special Report: Update 2 on the eruption in El Hierro”

  1. And for anyone in particular, something to ruminate upon.

    At what speed does a shift in pressure propagate through a “magma chamber?” Note that my definition of magma chamber follows Carls idea of a many chaotically intertwined fractures and cracks filled with melt/partial melt.

    My thought is that the release of pressure from the top will propagate down through the mass and enhance the rate of melt generation. I imagine that the first wave of depressurization would expedite the release of any dissolved gases that are capable of coming out of solution.

    1. First of all… Candy in the form a various free fluid dynamics software.
      http://www.cfd-online.com/Links/soft.html

      You have to find a way to device the Reynolds number for the magma in question, then you need a rough knowledge of the reservoir in question. If we think of it as being tubinged for instance, then you would need to know first of all, how long are then way the pressure travels in those tubes? Then you need to know if the tube narrows so the speed increases, or it whidens so the speed decreases. You also need the Mach number of the media.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rheology

      Or… You do as I do. I would go with the speed in a fluid with the density of 3kg (olivine/bauxite-basalt) and then you get the speed of 3569 m/s. Problem is though still the tubingicity of the reservoir. But perhaps you do not need that? You could perhaps use some kind of fractionality average index instead?
      But, pressure moves also through the rock, so you could perhaps discard it and just decide that the pressure front will have lower energy for the transitions through the intersections. I think you would then get a result looking like P and S waves, Ie, you get two pressure fronts that arrive at different times.
      Good idea about the depressurization of gasses through pressure release. But it will for all purposes be almost instant due to the high speed.

  2. Hola amigos!
    Me alegra ver que la emoción no ha cesado a pesar de la Madre y la falta de hierro es de un frente de escenario espectacular. Después de todo lo que le gusta enseñar a sus hijos con clases de poco, ya que tener la educación integral de todos a la vez, explicó, no sería muy bueno para el corazón o la mente en su evolución actual. Sigan con el trabajo de la conjetura, es entretenido! Dudamos comprensión completa o la predicción será posible teniendo en cuenta que hay mucho que usted no entiende acerca de, por lo que mucho más que objetos físicos existen en este espacio / tiempo que sus mejores cerebros están apenas comenzando a adivinar.
    Así como nos gusta decir que mañana es otro día ….
    Dormir bien y levantarse fresco, todo el mejor amor!
    (Captcha dice “Doctor axperif” … ¿Qué significa?)

    2. Hola Amigo Juan,
      Puedes utilizar el traductor al inglés de translate.google.com para dejar tus mensajes (o mejor http://imtranslator.com/ porque tiene la posibilidad de hacer una traducción al reves al mismo tiempo para que sale mejor entendible lo tradicido, entonces queda más legible que con la google traducción). Tambien piuedes leer todos los mensajes aquí con http://www.translate.google.com. Captcha “Doctor axperif” no dice nada, son palabras ficticias y tontas para comprobar que no seas un robot…

      Vives en la Isla de El Hierro?

      — I just explained about using google translate and another one, http://imtranslator.com that has the possibility to do a back translation at the same time so your chances the message gets across less giggly is greater. And I asked whetter Juan actually lives on El Hierro…

    3. I used Google to translate the above. He is still working on it as I write – presumably he is now translating the whole Blog! Going to have to leave the site to stop it.

    1. Yepp, we even caused them to change it when I pointed out in this blog that some facts where plain wrong. They even diminished the number of active volcanos in Iceland to only 7.
      It was written by a female who asked questions in here a couple of days ago. Her name even linked to the Guardian.

      5. I do not remember her name, she wrote a couple of days ago in your first blog about El Hierro. I commented on that she was a journalist.
        I’ll check.

  4. I have upgraded your theory (which i believe is the only plausible one) to the current headline and update of Earthquake-Report.com .. of course with a relay to jonfr.com

      3. (Mantle plume): a localized column of hot magma rising by convection in the mantle, believed to cause volcanic activity in hot spots, such as the Hawaiian Islands, away from plate margins.

      5. Nome de Guerre.
        During the war against Franco, the partisans took new names, they where called, Nome de Guerre or War-names. Nowadays the meaning in english is “secret name, name to hide behind”. After the civil war La resistance in France made the practice their own.
        You should now this, it is basic spannish history.

      6. To your comment below Carl le’…
        As this is a volcanic and earthquake blog I still hold to “Nom de Plume” a la Française, after all haven’t we too much of “GUERRE” !

  5. Ok, I can see now why news about Katla popped in my country too, it was an Associated Press news.

    1. Argh, wrong place, reply was to “The other lurker says: You all saw this article ?”

      1. @Vince
        I am glad it’s all calmed down, this blog is often a game of catch up sometimes.

  8. About the “de-gassing” theory, I’m buying this theory, because I think these stains are appearing too much close to land and if an eruption occurred at that depths so close to onshore we will see more convincing traces from that eruption .
    But does anyone know any equivalent “de-gassing” event like this in the past?

      4. Some spots are really quite close to shore, I know in El Hierro the depth drops quickly, but I think in this case are closer to 600 meters than 1000m….
        http://img64.imageshack.us/img64/6137/elhierro.jpg

        In December 1998, Serreta Volcano erupted in Terceira Island, Azores, at 500/600 meters, and we got a lot of pillow lava and steam.
        http://www.sveurop.org/gb/articles/articles/Serreta.htm
        And there were no stains, at least as I remember, but of course, I know that no two volcanoes are equal.

        I’ve been thinking in another possibility, eruption really occurred but under the debris layer from El Julan landslide, this younger sediment layer release large amounts of this “mud”, but prevents the rise of pillow lava. Just an non-expert speculation ….

    2. Most reports of de-gassing appear regarding terrestrial volcanics, and as for something more recent Surtsey “farting” was not recorded… Other minds may know different !

  9. Carl, Jon, Diana, Geo et al. The (evidence based) content you’re all dishing out here is an absolute dream for any Volcano / Geology enthusiast. Thanks alot.
    Blog volcano trek? Surely a location such a Brennisteinsalda volcano.. With, on a clear day (I’d assume) views to Hekla, Katla, Eyja and many others.

    2. Brennisteinsalda? That one was new to me. Where is it? Otherwise Tindfjalla- or Torfajöklum would be good.
      But… I think actually that we should hold it ontop of Búrfell for those of us who do not get to go there for various reasons. Then they can share on the camera, and we could set up a Tweet of it, or why not a MSN account so they could call in or something 🙂

      6. Problem solved. It is not a volcano. Not of it’s own at least.
        It is one of the cones from the Namshraun, Laugahraun eruption of Torfajökull in 1477.

        So, that volcano is Torfajökull. It has not erupted in 1961. It erupted in 1477 the last time.

      8. Just waiting for you to ascend it! It’d be funny if it were to erupt bringing all types of airline chaos.. it’d soon step out from the shadows!

      10. Actually yes, sounds like a plan.. armchairs, cigs, BBQ & beers with a ringside view of Hekla. With PPV live streaming on the Burfell webcam!

      11. Brennisteinsalda is in Landmannalaugar. I often went there hiking with tourists and think it is the most beautiful mountain in all of Iceland. It’s not really next to Hekla and not very high, but during the last years it has taken up producing more and more fumaroles – also next to the hiking trail at its feet so I had to warn the tourists to watch their steps a little bit…
        http://de.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Datei:Landmannalaugar_Iceland_2005_2.JPG&filetimestamp=20070314043842

  10. Juan, actually it seems that Laki could have done just that during the first days. That would then explain the unusually high content of SO2 emitted. The first rifting fissure is high in sulphuric compounds that could be a Laki sized fart.

      1. You really get around! If you ever need crew? Give me a shout, I am used to the waves and can row like hell if needs be at the last resort!

  12. I’m pulling up 404’s on the links here:

    http://www.02.ign.es/ign/resources/volcanologia/deformacion.html

    and “Lo sentimos” on the links from

    http://www.01.ign.es/ign/resources/volcanologia/deformacion.html

    Additionally, I’m getting access denied for the links to the FTP ephemerides.

    Server issue or are they trying to prevent someone from second guessing the official word? It’s been said that you should never infer malice from acts of idiocy… so I’m just curious if any one else can get at the data.

      2. Ho….Ho…. Keep up the spirit, damn the fearfreakers!
        Apologies, you know it takes a mickle to make a muckle!

      5. Well, the quad link response went to the que, so it will have to wait.

        Any one have positional information on those stations?

        I’d like to back out the N/S and E/W info from the graphs and use that in a plot.

    5. I can get in without any problem. More people complained today about difficulties getting on the site, so I guess it’s just server overload. If not, it’s time you get the Tor fired up…

  13. Please note that I am at my parents place for the moment. Because of that I won’t check my email until I get back to my computer on Sunday.

    It filters the email for me. Going trough 300+ emails is way to much for me at the moment.

    2. Jón, btw, you should have in your mailbox a new donation to your new webicorders. € 15/111 DKK (Receipt Number: 3739-6679-2193-8138).
      It was a little late, but the financial crisis in Portugal is ugly as was in Iceland. The donation is not mine, is from the http://meteopt.com (weather and natural sciences portuguese online community). We’ve learned a lot with you in the past 2 years, so we think you deserve. Best regards.
      (sorry for the offtopic)

    1. “weird news”… Says it all!
      (Nothing weird about volcanologists…huh?)
      >caveat…. Nothing in this post ought to be taken as fact, all is rumination on observation)…. N’est pa?

      1. Ruminairans Unite!

        THINK ABOUT IT

        this is not mind control

        THINK ABOUT IT

        this is not mind control

        THINK ABOUT IT

        …

        😀

      3. All good fun…… What time is it? (i’m sure i’ve got to be doing something else soon once the dawn breaks)…. And Kudos “L” and “ClS” for keeping up with what you do best, on the times you are not doing that other useful service to mankind! (ALL THE BEST AND RESPECT) from this humble mortal ignoramus!

    1. The server is temporarily unable to service your request due to maintenance downtime or capacity problems. Please try again later.

    2. My, my…. Someones just turned on the gas under the kettle?
      Nothing showing to great extent comparing other incidences tho’ i could be wrong…. The “Fat Priest” is always gurgling, gastronomical noise as usual!….(I’m glad it’s on the incline)

      2. Are you on about the moon affecting volcanos again?
        Go back one blog post and read Lurkings comment on it. There is no effect on volcanos from the moon. Period.

      3. Who mentioned Luna at this present time?
        The current speculation is that the luna picks up a charge (electronic/plasmatic/perhaps magnetic) from sol on new moon and spills discharge between the 1st quarter and full moon in sync with terra. This may (surmising, prevailing, have an influence on the plasma/electro/magnetism of terra), result in energetic influence of our own planets energy flux…. Resulting in geophysical effects… Likewise between last quarter and full moon there is another energy exchange resulting in other flux…. Neo/psuedo/para/science… Call it Gallileo of the 21st century…. Dare i call you a catholic?

      4. via dic/wiki:
        catholic |ˈkaθ(ə)lik|
        adjective
        1 (esp. of a person’s tastes) including a wide variety of things; all-embracing. See note at universal .

      5. Cathodic cath·ode (kthd)
        n. Abbr. ka
        1. A negatively charged electrode, as of an electrolytic cell, a storage battery, or an electron tube.

  16. I do not like the quakes at Lokatindur.
    It is the same transverse radial fissure swarm part that was first to erupt at Askja in 1874, a precursor eruption like Fimmvörduhals, to the large 1875 Askja eruption.

  17. Okay, found the Latitude(?) and Longitude(?) of several of those stations. I put the question marks in there since whoever did the table seems to have neglected E and W signs… or that Longitude goes to +/- 90 degrees.

    For example… FRON Latitude 27.75349977 Longitude 341.9890509

    This might take a bit to un “hork.”

    Meanwhile HI01, HI02, HI03, and HI04 are pretty obvious to be temporary stations put in place in order to try and stay on top of the festivities. Does anyone have positional data on where those are located? Maybe a press release or some other news tidbit that squeaks out a lat and lon?

    I also found TN03 but can’t locate TN06.

    1. Can’t find any information too, should be new installed stations , I’ll try to get this data for you.

    2. GAH!!!

      The last thing I wanted was near real-time raw GPS data. I am not equipped to process that.

      If anyone has the scientific know-how to process the orbit data (and the correction data) and wants the site, let me know.

    1. Are you aware of any atmospheric SO2 monitoring for the region – I had not been able to find any…. but I think it could be very revealing; however considerable volumes of gas are likely to dissolve in the seawater. Additionally are they sampling the water around the eruption site to monitor acidity? Any/ all of these measures could help provide information about the volumes and composition of any subsea ejecta or degassing.

      Hahaha – my Captcha word was sheep!!

      1. Yes I’ve been watching the SO2 but nothing ‘huge’ is visible – the only data I could find was on this page http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/OMI/OMISO2/images/OMI_ME_SO2_DDC2.GIF – several other areas have much higher definition (here http://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/OMI/OMISO2/index.html) but those are in areas that are more generally volcanically interesting I guess.

        also very good images for selected areas by clicking inside any of the red boxes on this map http://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/index.php gets you detail for those, but the other areas of the map only give anthropomorphic data.
        you do get sattelite tracks in the data – diagonal gaps (and sometimes non existant SO2 is displayed in a reddish diagonal) after a while you get used to ignoring them (good examples of those here http://so2.gsfc.nasa.gov/pix/daily/1011/alaska_1011z.html )

        this link http://omivfd.fmi.fi/volcanic.html is good for northern hemisphere but doesn’t reach far enough south for El Hierro

      2. just tried posting a bunch of links, but lost the post somehow

        anyway nothing really showing up a very small pink dot is about all that one can see and I’m not ever certain which island it’s over.

        google search for sulfur dioxide nasa wil bring up the global so2 monitoring page near the top. there are a bunch of links there but no detailed map for the el hierro region on any of them the OMI tropics map is the best I could find.

  19. Friday
    14.10.2011 04:20:16 65.213 -16.932 1.1 km 2.3 87.24 8.5 km NNW of Lokatindur
    Friday
    14.10.2011 03:44:44 65.211 -16.911 1.1 km 3.2 90.06 7.9 km NNW of Lokatindur
    Friday
    14.10.2011 02:54:29 65.223 -16.920 1.4 km 2.5 90.03 9.3 km NNW of Lokatindur

  20. Hi guys!
    Does anybody noticed that at about 3.55 am exist on many stations around ElH an tremor spike??
    Seems that SE Rift bubbling something… especially CFUE station is the most noisy one.
    What is that?

    2. Well, there is a near surface cluster of quakes that have occurred there, and that point has some noticeable uplift over the last few days… and the volcano seems to have erupted near there…

      On a more serious note… and PURELY speculation on my part. While rummaging around for GPS data, I did a 4D plot of all of the quakes. This time, just for the S&G aspect of it, I used the azimuth of the location error ellipse for the color. I did this as a kludge since there are no focal solutions. It turns out that the orientations of the error ellipses seem to track with the different stages of the magma movement.

      Pretty weird stuff. Its fully outside of accepted theory as far as I know, so I am hesitant to plot it… at least not until I get a read from the more knowledgeable people here.

      1. What eq at 3:55?
        I’ve checked nothing.
        The CFUE station is the strongest of them all after that comes EGOM, EFAM and EOSO and strange the pick is at the beginning to all of them after comes another pick to Efam and after a while EGOM and EOSO start to pick up….

      2. On a second thought….
        Looks like a wave from East to West along the SE rim ….
        magma feeding???

      3. Jóns Hekla Helicorder shows clearly something around 3:55 which looks like an EQ to me.

      4. sounds interesting – if the pattern is there, is it there for other bunches of data ?

    3. I like whatever type of station they are using.
      What you are seeing here is ultra-long wave. I guess it is a distant large earthquake.
      It shows in almost the frequency of a borehole strainmeter. The frequency is actualy about 1 cycle per 2 minutes. If it is not a large quake I would guess it is a LIGO-moment.

  21. 14.10.2011 03:44:44 65.211 -16.911 1.1 km 3.2 90.06 7.9 km NNW of Lokatindur Friday

    That one can also be soon on Jóns Helicorder. What is this? A feeder for Askja?

    1. It is Askja, but the other way around, that is a radial fissure in the Askja swarm, it last erupted in 1874 in a precursor eruption to the VEI-5 of Askja in 1875.
      Bad news.

  23. Looks like according to papers, we are doomed when Katla blows grrr so much scaremongering going on….

    Is someone here near Vik who can tell us what’s going on regularly as looking at papers and web is making me jumpy ha ha.

    1. Katla will erupt. We do not know when. It will not be the end of the world. I would just not want to stand in the way of the flooding. That is all. Otherwise it will only be a bit ashy and a nuisance for the locals. Sorry to unscaremonger you.

  24. Just for the earthquake followers among you :
    We have published 2 articles on very strong quakes this morning
    a) PNG – closed as locally seen as “not important”
    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/10/04/very-strong-earthquake-almost-below-papua-new-guinea-finschhafen/
    b) Russia – still busy to add content – looks dangerous and casualties cannot be excluded
    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/10/04/strong-dangerous-shallow-earthquake-in-russia-close-to-the-border-with-china/

  25. Am not going to let lack of supporting data interfere with my hypothesis that Katla is Muslim and seismic activity will greatly increase after Friday prayers today.

    1. You still have it the wrong way.
      She is a heathen Valkyria and she will get roaringly drunk and puke all over after eating pork and drinking mead 🙂
      That does not sound to muslim to me. Or wait a minute, sounds like all muslims I know… 😉

      1. Maybe its the vibrations from the worlds million muslims all kneeling at the same time resonating through the earth…:)

      2. That explains my sunday hangover. It is the banging of all the christian church-bells going off in my head.

        FEI (for everyones information) I am really bad at religions, any religion.

      3. I can’t help linking religious sheeping to a lack of intelligence. All religions, in the sense of venerating imaginary interstellar superpowers. Don’t ask what I think of those taking the belief in those superpowers to manipulate and mislead he manipulatable and leadable…
        Real, but disgusting part of human nature…

      5. Big smile for that, Jack.
        As Lennon said – no religion… 🙂
        Although, love could be my god and volcanoes the angels… Isn’t that sweet? Ooooooh…

      6. @GeoLoco

        “…All religions, in the sense of venerating imaginary interstellar superpowers”

        Sort of like quantum theory and string theory eh?

        I’m ultra religious in a different vein than the way most people view religious ideology. Every force, every phenomena, and every nuance of science is just a manifestation of Gods work.

        God, being a supreme being, can-non be relegated to a shoe box full of rules and regulations manufactured or interpreted by man.

        God is. That’s about all you can state and be 100% accurate. Anything else is just an attempt by a human idea or perception to stick God in a box, subject to a rule or regulation.

        All of science is nothing more than a way of viewing the marvel of what God has put in place.

        Intelligent design? A human argument trying to stick God in a box. Darwinism? A human argument trying to stick God in a box. Evolution? A human argument trying to stick God in a box.

        Ultimately, the only real thing that I can see in Gods action, is that God is a strong practitioner of payback.

        If you are a turd to someone… eventually it will come back to get you. It may be 40 years, but your actions and how you deal with them will have an impact on some part of your life.

        If you want to be an Atheist? Fine, thats your right. Worship it how you like, because whether you like it or not, that is your religion. As long as your religion doesn’t try to brow beat me into believing that particular set of human manufactured rules and regulations, I have no problem with it.

        BTW, I love BLT’s.

    2. Or Friday night & Saturday night are party time; she even has her party frock on (new snow).

  26. Good morning. It looks like Askja area is the venue for a Friday night party !
    Friday
    14.10.2011 07:40:49 64.794 -17.277 2.3 km 2.1 90.01 3.6 km WNW of Kistufell
    Friday
    14.10.2011 04:20:16 65.213 -16.932 1.1 km 2.3 87.24 8.5 km NNW of Lokatindur
    Friday
    14.10.2011 03:44:44 65.211 -16.911 1.1 km 3.2 90.06 7.9 km NNW of Lokatindur

    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/englishweb/gps/karv_enu.html
    Going up!

    1. Scrap that last one. Just realised it’s for 2008!
      Time for another coffee!!!

    2. That is an image from 2008.

      But, I have seen the data since then. You can draw a line from the start of the shift point and it just goes straight up… Same for the caldera of Askja GPS.
      I have a strange feeling that while we have been talking about Grimsvötn (erupted), Katla (snoozing), and Hekla (Laughing at us), Askja has sneaked up on us ready to shout “Boo!” at us in about 170dB.
      That readial fissure is bad news, it has been silent as a door-know since 1874, it has had no activity since then. And one thing is for sure, Askja can drink a lot of Magma before she lets go. And she is like Grimsvötn and Bardarbunga, she drinks directly from the hotspot.
      New eruption risk-plot (percentage of risk of euption withing 12 months)
      Hekla 49
      Katla 23
      Grimsvötn 18
      Askja 5
      Bardabunga 4
      The rest of the jolly bunch 2

      For those of you who wonder. I made a spread-sheet, and I have just assigned values of risk to different types of behaviours that are connectet for eruptions of that specific volcano in question. If I had been Lurkmaster I would have made a beautifull image of it. I do not have a clue how to even start with that, so I only get numbers. There is also a statistical component to it, but that is lower value than the current behaviour, but it moderates it from being to quick to change due to just one new sign of eruption.

  27. I mean scrap the link to GPS data…. Sheesh!
    I do not get recent GPS data for KARV ( Karahnjukar) on the IMO site. Have they stopped monitoring?
    This GPS station is the nearest to Askja I think..

    1. No, the closest is Sigruns GPS in the Askja caldera. That i up and running, but I cannot find it since she re-did here homepage.

      @ Sigrun:
      Do you think you could make a page for Askja like the one you have for Grimsvötn and Katla?
      Would be very kind.

  28. For whatever it’s worth, I do NOT think the moon has anything got to do with volcanoes. Neither with sunstorms. When it comes to global warming, and the link that I put out from the Norwegian news the other day, I’m also sceptical to that. I also heard theories about oilboring, and the connection with earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

    The moon, first of all, CAN NOT have any affect on volcanoes. Why? Because the closest thing to magma that the moon has something to do with, is water, and that is NOT as heavy as melted rock, and if anyone tells me that the moon can have an effect on melted rock, as it has on the water and the tide, well, then it wont be a long time before the whole earth will be pulled towards the moon, and we’ll all die! So please, stop it.

    When it comes to the sunstorms, wow, thats one I really want to kill, but I do not have the knowledge to do it. But it seems stupid, and there is noe evidence what so ever that the sun has an impact on volcanoes. And not just that, but I don’t think that something thats going on over the ground like that, can effect somthing thats going on deep under the ground. And now we are back to basic.

    When it comes to global warming, I believe that it could actually be one tiny tiny little chance, because I do believe what the scientists are saying, and it is their job to do it, but I do NOT think that it is global warming alone that makes more v9olcanic activity.

    And about drilling far down to the ground to find oil, that should logically have the opposite effect, if any at all, right? Because that would make more space for the magma, and it would take longer before an eruption. But then again, if this were to be true, we would get bigger eruptions, right?

    So, I’m far from sure, but this is my best explanitions….

    1. The sun storm is even more silly, the power of a sunstorm are 4 orders of magnitudes lower than the gravitational pull of the moon.
      Albeit, it is different versions of power. One is gravity, and the other electromagnetic, but in this case, same shit different name.
      A sunstorm can affect your mobile, or even knock out power-relays if you live in Canada or the US, but that is it.
      Just imagine the difference in power in something that disturbs a phone, and something that moves an ocean. And since the moon cannot affect anything (if Lurking can’t find it in that massive data-run no one can) it is just pure logic that sunstorms can’t either.
      So, I totally agree with you Christina.

      But, removing 1000 metres of Ice from the top of a volcano that is allready ready to go? Well, that is way more power than the moon. That is a 1000 tonnes of weight per square meter disapearing. I would not be surprised if that was enough to set off an eruption. There is also historical records of that affecting the icelandic volcanos after deglaciation. I do believe a bit in that. But not that the removal of 1 meter of ice would do anything, it would take the removal of a lot of ice.

      1. Yeah, well, when you say 100metres,Carl, it sounds alot. But I’m not saying it has nothing to do with it, I’m just saying that global warming has a helper to do the crime. Maybe “he” was the one that pulled the trigger, but there was also this “guy” that bought him the gu, and helped him get away with it.

      2. Well, we could just say that if we remove a thousand metres of ice one could say that we are to blame…
        Even smaller amounts would probably have an effect since the combined weight loss on a filled and ready volcano is rather large.
        There even seems to be evidence statistically that it affects volcanos like Katla and Grimsvötn in the form a seasonal changes in likelyhood of eruption as they have melt. Hekla seems to be the oposite, it does not like the weight of snow… But, it is not an absolute, far from it, they can go regardles of season. But there is a slight seasonal component to it, definitly.
        But sofar Lurking hasn’t plotted that one to my knowledge. Would be cool if he did.

      3. A small comparison. Mt St Helens in the 80´s.
        The volcano was ready to go big time and the trigger was a massive landslide which decreased pressure on the mountain which in turn gave allowed the magma to shoot up. The flank eruption was enormous. If the landslide hadnt taken place I am sure the eruption would happen anyway albeit with a delay and maybe, just maybe the eruption would have gone through the main crater upwards instead of shooting straight out on the flank.

        Now pressure on top of a volcano has everything to do with how magma reacts. A pressure drop = release of gas. A sudden, massive drop in pressure makes the magma act like..well..Think champagne bottle. 😉

  29. 1105439 14/10/2011 08:55:16 27.6732 -18.0369 13 2.6 mbLg SW EL PINAR.IHI
    1105436 14/10/2011 08:10:17 27.6679 -18.0387 18 1.9 mbLg SW EL PINAR.IHI
    1105435 14/10/2011 08:05:16 27.6717 -18.0402 19 2.2 mbLg SW EL PINAR.IHI

  30. ‘Mornin folk
    Is it me , or is the BUR strain trace getting continually more shaky, I seem to remember a few weeks ago it was more of a series of smooth curves – and no I’m not being a prophet!!
    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/strain/str_corr/index.html
    Does anyone know if there is a longer-term trace so as to see longer term effects?
    Also whats this ‘pyrolite’ material that Wiki can’t give a definition of, back in the Lower Cambrian (ie my student days!!) we had Eclogite/Dunite/Peridotite as the mantle material.

    1. The scale of Búrfell has just scaled down. It is just that it is very small-scale right now. It is though getting more and more twittery as Hekla gets closer and closer to an eruption.

      1. That is just the link to the information page of it.
        Sigrún has a page where you can see a plot of it. I have lost that link when my old lap-top burned up.

      3. It just said “Fzzzt” when I turned it on 2 weeks ago, and then smoke started to pour out of it.
        The battery had shorted out.
        I am happy that I had a fire-extinguisher at hand. 8kg of CO2 takes care of almost everything as long as you have pulled the power-cord. It saved my living-room table from extinction.

      4. I though just pinged the GPS, and it is up and running…
        If I had a GPS-plotting program compatible with that station I could do my own plot given enough time.
        I guess that Lurking has a program for that.

      2. I know, but I thought that maybe Hekla was a littlebit higher up than Katla was, so that could might be the reason or something.

    2. Because we are in the fall? Its pretty normal at this time of the year to have the first snow on higher grounds like the highlands or mountains.

      1. About 1 week or so ago, there was snowfall on Holtavörðuheiði at about 420 m height.

    1. well, its Friday, so…
      I’m getting to like this blog to much, now I’m thinking of sitting by the pc all Friday night with a cold beer and just read about earthquakes, harmonic tremors, sheep and hats thats going to be on the bbq…

      2. yeah, I know, in the beginning my wife was a bit worried – she thought it was a totally different kind of surfing I did….. Anymore she knows that Katla is no threat to her 🙂

      3. I still sometimes hear a “what can it be you have to write to some geeks in the web?”
        Why should I watch idiots on tv or drunk idiots in a bar…
        When I don’ have the power for “more”, surfing around volcano-info feels just perfect… 🙂

      4. I once watched a documentary about a millionaire, who builds and launches medieval catapults, trebuchets, etc. His wife said, he’s mad, but most importantly he stays at home during the weekend, and is not going to bars, etc. Guy kept launching small cars, used pianos, etc. with his machines. And he even launched himself once to a pond nearby. When asked about insurances, he replied “I do not need any as I have money!”

      8. I don’t like beer, so if it is a Picolit or Montbazillac or other awfully white wine, I’m with you. Else I’ll take some fruit-bomb like red Italian (when it’s about whine I just adore these guys – and for volcanoholics there are some pears from the Etna-flanks…) and potato chips (Zweifel if possible).
        Mmmmmh… 🙂

    2. There’s also one near Hekla:
      Friday 14.10.2011 10:11:40 63.933 -19.960 8.7 km 1.4 90.01 15.7 km WSW of Hekla

  38. For the ones waiting for Katla, Hekla & co., the next winter will supposedly be a cold one in Northern Europe due to prevailing negative NAO phase. This means, winds tend to come from the north, i.e. if one of those starts dancing, Europe will likely sit down and listen! 😉

    1. I heard that too, however I also have question when peoples do that kind of predictions… How is it possible that you can say we have a cold winter, when they are not even able to tell what the weather will be next week..
      I know it’s a more global prediction than the one for next week but okay.. they say it will be -23 in northwester Europe with lots of snow –> that’s more detail so I don’t believe it.. It is however more likely that we have a colder winter because of the negative NAO

      Sander

      1. NAO is a global weather pattern, that does affect overall weather type at the location where e.g. I live. It does also directly affect daily weather, as it gives “boundaries” to the Atlantic low-pressure fronts, by steering them to a more southernly route across the Europe. The weather type does not change until the NAO phase changes.

      2. I’ve also heard that it would be colder winter, but they said they wouldn’t predict snowfall because they couldn’t predict the clouds…

      3. NAO negative usually gives cold winters in Scandinavia, like it has the two last winters. Beeing a Norwegian living on the coast I prefer the cold winters as NAO positive usually gives us sleet and rain. Think NAO negative means high preassure over Iceland and low preassure over the “Azorene” (don’t know the English word). NAO positive the other way around off course.

    1. Make the link to ash-propagation and you’re completely in-topic with meteorology… 🙂

    1. Can’t tell; it looks fairly consistent to me. But there have been a few quakes. Try:

      http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=CHIE_2011-10-14&ver=s&estacion=CHIE&Anio=2011&Mes=10&Dia=14&tipo=2

      But the other stations in the area are showing increased activity:

      http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=CFUE_2011-10-14&ver=s&estacion=CFUE&Anio=2011&Mes=10&Dia=14&tipo=1
      http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=EFAM_2011-10-14&ver=s&estacion=EFAM&Anio=2011&Mes=10&Dia=14&tipo=1
      http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=EGOM_2011-10-14&ver=s&estacion=EGOM&Anio=2011&Mes=10&Dia=14&tipo=1
      http://www.ign.es/ign/head/volcaSenalesAnterioresDia.do?nombreFichero=EOSO_2011-10-14&ver=s&estacion=EOSO&Anio=2011&Mes=10&Dia=14&tipo=1

      I do not know where the stations are located but this might indicated that the activity was moving closer to a location central to them.

    2. The spectrogram for CHIE suggests a significant quake (~3) in the last 40 minutes, but nothing showing up yet on the IGN list, so not sure what’s up.

      1. I was also looking for it in the list, but didn’t find it. I think it should have been between Gran Canaria and Fuerteventura as the signal there was strongest.

  42. @Carl Le Strange:

    can decreasing tremor also be caused by easier access to the surface( bigger vent/conduit size ), and of course decreasing volatile content, along with the other well known causes ???

  43. Christ..I made a comment on a swedesh newspaper regarding the “impending doom of mount Katla” and got jumped directly just because i said that it would NOT create a mega eruption. 😀

    2. Heh… start pulling DOOM out from under someones feet and they will fight you for it.

      For some only the panacea of pending disaster can keep their mind off of the real-world problems.

      1. I all agree with you, Lurking, strange as this sounds, there seems to be a special kind of escapism at work.

        By the way, could it be, that I am the only one now in this blog who didn’t yet tell you that I very much appriciate your plots? Thanks a lot for them. Always learning more and more about volcanoes and their mechanisms.

  44. There a ca.30-year periodicity to the probability of negative NAO winters and we are on cusp of a swing negative now:
    http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/info/nao/
    The UK Met Offce used to give a forecast based on Atlantic sea surface tempertaures in May, but its discontinued.

  46. Can some of you assist me on reading the seismogram
    Whats the problem? I am writing a small data update for ER, and am describing the 2.6 quake from today. Happened to be that the 2.7 at 12/10 12:27 started the decrease of the signal(quake list IGN).
    Now on the seismogram this decrease is visualized at 14:27! Or is the 2 hours difference a great coincidence.

    1. On the earthquake list the asterisk against ‘time’ says:
      Verano (Hora Oficial = Hora GMT + 2 horas)
      Invierno (Hora Oficial = Hora GMT + 1 Hora)
      (La hora oficial en Canarias es una hora menos que en el resto de España)

      which means???

      1. ……..and the CHIE tremor plot is UTC.
        But GMT ( earthquake table time) and UTC are virtually identical.

      2. guess all they have at IGN is UTC – GMT no ? Canary islands is UTC +1 – Well, than it will be coincidence i guess? The real change in harmonic tremors started 2 hours after this 2.7 quake.

      3. When I refresh the CHIE tremor plot it is about 20 minutes delayed – does not look to me like a real time display.

      4. Meaning:
        Summer (official time = GMT + 2 hours)
        Winter (official time = GMT + 1 hour)
        (The official time in the Canary islands is one hour behind the rest of Spain.)

      5. That means (I think) that the Canary Isles are on GMT+1 in the summer (while the rest of spain (and continental europe) is on GMT+2)
        and similarly the Canary Isles are on GMT in the winter (while the rest of spain is on GMT+1)

  47. In Iceland you have snow in this height all the year round. – And you can have snow also in the summertime in the highlands above heights of let’s say around 500 m (Sprengisandur etc.).

  49. Please note that there is now a new blog post about the eruption in El Hierro volcano. There is also a slightly less new blog post about the earthquakes in Katla volcano and Askja volcano in Iceland.

  50. Is it -day off- today? El Hierro sure isn’t sleeping.. Rings forming on the surface now. (bubble bath 😉 !!

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