Posted on by Jón Frímann

Status update on Bárðarbunga volcano at 21:21 UTC

This information is going to get outdated quickly.

About how I work my data

I do all my data work in my head. Since I don’t have the computer power or the programming skills do so in normal computer. This is generally refereed as “thought experiments” I think. The data set for Bárðarbunga volcano are now huge and it takes me a while to update them and work out what I am seeing.

Caldera collapse is in progress in Bárðarbunga volcano

I know that scientists in Iceland don’t want to mention this in the news and are still hoping for current sequence of events to stop. That is not going to happen, it was already to late when the magma found a way out of the magma chamber on 16-August-2014, all that can be done now is to plan for the eventual collapse of Bárðarbunga volcano into a new caldera. I don’t expect the mountain to make it based on current earthquake activity. Eruptions should also be expected without warning around the circle that the earthquakes have now formed around the magma chamber that is collapsing in Bárðarbunga volcano.

Bárðarbunga volcano is however not going to collapse quickly, while the eruption once it starts in Bárðarbunga volcano is only going to last 1 week at the longest. This type of events takes several weeks to months from start to end. When Askja volcano collapsed in 1875 it started sometimes in the year 1874 and did not end until October 1875 (Global Volcanism Program says 1. Jan, 1875 to 1875, 17 Oct.). So this might take more than six months from start to end and might not end until sometimes next year (2015). There is also a chance this collapse is going to take just several weeks. There is no way to know for sure how long this is going to take, since it depends on many unknown factors. There is also a factor that no caldera collapse has taken place in Iceland since modern recording and monitoring of volcanoes started in Iceland (around 1970).

Current status of the Bárðarbunga volcano

  • Eruption continues in Holuhraun lava field. Most of the craters have now stopped erupting and one is now just emitting gas according to latest reports today.
  • Power of the eruption in Holuhraun is about the same since it started, even if there are fewer vents erupting lava at the moment.
  • Visibility has been limited today due to bad weather in the highland of Iceland.
  • SO2 levels in populated areas in east Iceland did go up to 2550µg/m³ around 15:00 UTC in Reyðjarfjöður village. Health warning was issued for the area during the peak of the SO2 pollution.
  • Largest earthquakes today had the magnitude of 5,5 at 05:25 UTC, second largest earthquake today had the magnitude of 4,8 at 15:51 UTC. Other earthquakes have been smaller. There is now less earthquake activity taking place since magma is not breaking as much crust as before.
  • The caldera has now dropped some 20 meters according to last measurements taken when there was a flight over Bárðarbunga volcano.
  • There continues to be earthquake in the dyke, most of it is in area that is covered with glacier.
  • Eruption in Hamarinn (Loki-Fögrufjöll) volcano is now a possibility. It might start without warning and without any earthquake activity, or just little earthquake activity.
  • Dyke activity might start to go south of Bárðarbunga volcano. It has not happened yet, but there is a high risk of it in my personal view.
  • This is creating stress changes around Bárðarbunga volcano. There is a minimal risk of that starting an eruption in other volcano systems that are nearby. It is not likely to happen, but the possibility is there. The reason is that Bárðarbunga volcano is a large volcano, the second biggest in Iceland in my view. With Hofsjökull volcano being the largest in Iceland in my view.
  • The lava field continues to block the glacier river Jökulsá á Fjöllum. As this progresses there is going to be a natural dam in this area after few days.
  • Seven minor eruptions have been confirmed according to the news today (on Rúv). This is besides the eruptions that where in the glacier free area (and are still ongoing). None of those eruptions seems to have lasted for long.
  • Based on harmonic tremor I think pressure is again increasing in Bárðarbunga volcano magma chamber system. This does not appear to be resulting in more powerful eruption in Holuhraun. That is why I think there is increased risk of new dyke to start forming.
  • Gas output from the eruption in Holuhraun remains high and it is extremely dangerous to go there. The lava field is also creating a lot of local weather in good weather. That also makes this dangerous. This eruption is no place for tourist.

Updates

Updates go here when they happen.

News bits

I am going to add news here in case anything happens.

References list

Caldera (Wikipedia)
Modelling Caldera Collapse (OSU)
Caldera (Science Daily)

263 Replies to “Status update on Bárðarbunga volcano at 21:21 UTC”

  1. During the past weeks I learned a lot about volcanoes and related subjects. Thank you for that. Of course it would be interesting to see a big explosion, whatever its nature – fire and water always catch the human ‘bean’s’ attention. However, on waking up this morning, I could only think of the devastating effect such a huge event would have on the Iceland community, and suddenly I wished it would all just pipe down.
    So, dear Icelanders, for your sake I hope whatever happens will be less serious than it appears to be, and that you will stay safe in your beautiful country I have always wanted to visit, and still may one day. Take care!!
    hen

  3. Sorry to be a spoil sport, but I don’t think we will have a devestating event. The caldera seems to only be dropping to match the rate of magma loss, so unless a larger vent appears somewhere. the rate of effusive lava loss limits the collapse rate. I think it will just continue to creak for a while unless we have a big aruption elsewhere which drains the magma which is supporting it..

    1. Which is a lovely scenario until either the lid of the caldera cracks / splits open OR water from the Glacier finds it’s way into the magma chamber – both of which are possible scenarios too.

      You put forward a perfectly reasonable scenario, one which IMO also say is a possibility – but the above 2 scenarios are now equally possible.

      It’s a waiting game. No one can call this 100% certainty, so when all is done & finished no one can sit back and say “I told you so” – as it can only have been a lucky guess.

      1. We have an extraordernary even with Icelandic measures now. maybe not devestating, but even this is if it goes on for a long time of historical value. We have to go to the 19:th century to find more erupted lava. Does all Iceland have to explode to satisfy some people.

      2. It’s not about satisfying anyone. I am totally enthrawled by what is going on right now. Fascinated by it.

        But at the same time, I am realistic. A big event is long overdue if you look back at the history of Iceland. All the indications are that this could lead to a bigger event, which too becomes historic.

        Google “Caldera collapse” and see how many “good” examples you can find. Ones that didn’t lead to a big eruption. There aren’t many!

        I, like others, hope that the people of Iceland stay safe, but you can bet your wages that the Governments of Iceland and surrounding countries are readying themsleves for a worst case scenario and not sat on their hands saying “it can’t happen” – because it CAN. It would be foolhardy to NOT be preparing for a bad situation, precisely to keep everyone safe.

      3. You can’t use google-search that way. How popular is it to write about “Caldera collapse” not leading to an eruption? The bigger an eruption are, the more hits you’ll get on google, many small eruptions is not mentioned at all.

      4. One of the senarios is that even more fissure eruptions will take place. I thin Laki was a fissure event, so one never knows. I thing thats why IMO gives 4 possible outcomes.

    1. Looks quite calm just now in zoomed in image. Maybe the scientists are wanting a closer look at the flow rate from fountain.

  6. Using your imagination, intellect, observations from the data and live cams a personal prediction of the what the outcome can be made.

    So many combinations to go with. If your hunch is what Treacleminer said above all us can definitely agree as a possible outcome.

    On the other side of the coin the Laki scenario. If the tectonic plates are in the process of a large movement and that all the eruptions and EQ’s from Bardarbunga Caldera, under the fissure, glacier boundary towards Askja is the Magna clearing the route for a 50 km plus intermittent fissure eruption.

    Total collapse of Bardarbunga Caldera and a VEI 6 strato eruption.

    Interesting times as the Chinese philosophers say.

    I do know one of certainty, if worse case scenario occurs the people of NW Europe will be straight in to help all Icelanders and if we’ve time the sheep too.

  7. Good Morning Everyone
    It is a very good, clear view on the cams this morning.
    Waiting to see what is going to happen can be a bit agonizing, so
    I am just going to sit back and continue to enjoy the ride.
    I have a question for anyone. On Cam no 2, just to the right of the smoke column
    there is a dark patch high up on the ice. It must be either dirty ice, or the exposed rock of a mountain side. Is that spot too close to be the sides of the Bardabunga volcano?
    Thanks in advance, Chris

    1. Just looked at Cam 2, all you can see in that shot is in the valley, I think the dark patch you mention is old lava flow.

    2. Chris, if you are talking up and to the right of the plume of the fissure eruption, it is indeed the flank of Bardarbunga….the reason I know, is because several days (was very clear day) I saw it and at first thought it was a melt in the glacier….it’s not….it is the flank of the volcano. Which then tells you, the caldera is up and over to the left , basically, behind the smoke plume…and then over to the left a bit more. Hope this helps 🙂

  8. Thanks Al
    As soon as i posted the question, i went back to the cam and they had zoomed in. Rotters!!!!
    It is high up on the ice, so would have to be a volcano to be an old lava flow. Will have to wait until the zoom out again. Chris

  9. Holy cow!! Cam 2 is totally different! It doesnt look like the same picture! – ok … now I’ll scroll up and see what you all have been posting. Just woke up *yawn

  10. Just this instant on cam 2 something went past from right to left.
    Maybe helicopter but I went small screen reading above and couldnt tell.
    All I saw was a ball of light.
    anyone??

  13. OK it flew back so I went full screen and over to cam 1.
    Saw an aircraft fly left to right. I imagine a small plane, scientists – just a guess.
    Nope. Not a UFO, not a shuttlecraft. 😉 I watch too many space movies!

  16. THAT was definitely a helicopter – just now – on cam 2 – flew right to left – slowly –
    and it was real low and real clear! (and I have my glass on @^@ )

  17. Ive seen many cross sections showing a magma chamber as a sphere under the crater of about the same radius. In andy maths thats about 3×5×5×5=375km cubic of magma chamber. Sitting on top is 3x5x5x.8=60km cubic of ice. Prevailing wind west to east. Do the people in east iceland have gas masks ? Come to that are the people of most of northern europe prepared to cope with huge ash fallout ? What was mount st. Helens. This looks bigger and its ticking.

  19. hmm, something strange is going on at ask. looks like seismic activity, but it does not show up yet anywhere else…

    1. I think there must be some kind of work being done on the sensors they would definately show up elsewhere and there is nothing.

    1. I dont think really anyone knows the implications of such an event, this would be occur in the core I know the magnetic field on some parts of the equator has been weakening for a while.

      This I suppose could stir everything up to the surface.

    2. Not looked at this so maybe someone can answer, at the moment magnetic north is close to true north as the earth spins, if the pole shifted to the equator is this disaster that the earth is caused to wobble to spin roughly with the magnetic pole,,

      Umm, quite looking forward to living closer to the tropics.

      1. I have heard that the magnetic poles are shifting. But this has no influence on our earth. Because the North- and Southpoles stay on the same position. We only need new compasses. Why would the actually position or rotation-route of the earth change? I don’t think a volcano can cause that. We have had many eruptions, powerfull eruptations in the history of our earth. Can’t recall that anyone caused a actually chance in the position of the earth. Correct me if I am wrong! More info about the shifting of the magnetic poles can be found on National Geographic.

      2. no, the magnetic pole shift will not influence the earth rotation. It is the other way round, the earth rotation (in specific the delta rotation of fluent and solid parts of the inner structure) causes the magnetic field.

        The magnetic field of mother earth is frozen in the solid crust, rocks and stuff do align their poles to the magnetic field when liguid and keep this orientation when getting solid. So even, when the magnetic motor of our earth fails, the magnetic field would still exist for some 100000 years. with a slight decrease of strenght over time.
        This happened very likely to mars and even to our moon, were some regions still provide magnetic fields, whereas the global one failed.

    1. Pole shift is a very slow process that occurs over thousands of years. It is partly related, but only in that sinking land from rifts etc during normal continental drift leads to it. Hence the swap that has already occured in parts of Africa. It does not happen in planets which do not have this feature. However it is not the cause. It is instead the result of many cumulative events such as this, due to convection.

  25. Hi treacleminer nice name lol, thanks for clearing it up for me, I thought it would be related, I think the poles are shifting fairly rapidly about 42km a day or something silly now. But there’s so much misinformation about it it’s hard to get an exact answer

  26. IMO seem to be preparing a second warning. They had a test up a while ago across the top of the website and now there is a second warning ready (underneath theone about the fissure eruption) with no details as yet, something kicking off or they suspect it might be?

    2. The second warning has to do with the high concentration of toxic gasses. From Google translate:
      “Forecasts indicate a high concentration of sulfur gases from the eruption. It can be expected that the area of the northern east coast north Weaponfirth will be most affected. A larger area is not blocked.”

  27. A cilinder 2km deep, and 12km wide: gives 226 km3 magma chamber under Bardarbunga (for the shallow chamber which is currently under collapse)

    Assuming water enters in, and reaches critical steam pressure (a big if), let´s assume 5% of entire chamber volume erupts (a good conservative average), that means we have a 11km3 caldera eruption (as large as the large eruptions of Hekla 1104, Oraefajokull 1362, Veidivotn 1477, or twice that of Askja 1875).

    Assuming only 0.5% of chamber erupts, for a minor eruption, we still have 1.1 km3 (roughly twice the size of Grimsvotn 2011)

    Perhaps it is important to quote that about 0.4 km3 erupted in Holuhraun (20km2 x 20 meters average thickness) Which is impressive number considering only two weeks of eruption; half a year at this rate would result in third of Laki erupted volume, or about 5km3.

    Interestingly, we can also calculate the dike volume (which drained mostly from Bardarbunga shallow chamber): 40km x 10km deep x 10m average =4 km3

    So let´s just do a last calculation: a sinking of a cilinder of 20 meters, equates to roughly 2.2 km3 drained. If it goes to 200 meters (at current rate we reach this level by December), that equates to 22 km3 drained. An eruption of 10% of that gives a nice 2.2km3 eruption. In addition to an equivalent drained 2-4 km3 erupted magma at Holuhraun within the next months.

    So that´s what I expect, anything between 1 and 10km3 as the most likely eruptive volume of a Bardarbunga caldera eruption. Most likely around 2-3 km3 ash eruption plus a total 3km3 of lava flood at Holuhraun.

    1. Given the dyke depth – which was so far down it was making an argument for mantle intrusion – do we actually know it’s coming from the *shallow* chamber and not the main reservoir?

      From the piece on VolcanoCafe discussing the ring faults, the shallow magma had not previously been identified.

      http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/09/03/bardarbunga-update-20140903/

      I concur that it’s not likely that this would exceed a VEI 6 – not to say that such an event is small!

      1. Moderate VEI 6, I mean, 10-20km3. Figured I had better clarify with how high that class can go!

  28. Jon, sent you a small contribution. I hope everyone sends him a little to cover our ‘blogging spot’ and his wonderful research on Icelands volcanos. His insights are amazing,its as if he feels the heart beat of the volcanoes.

    1. Yep good point!
      I first discovered this blog about 4 years ago when Eyjafjallajökull erupted.
      Jon provided great coverage and traffic was dense, lots of comments and stuff for some months, even for a while after the events.

      I always come (at work ^^) here at least once a month, I never stopped coming because this blog is very special and informative. And I donated a little, not because of the interesting posts (nothing major happened for a long time so Jon was not posting often) but because at some point I felt like nobody visited anymore..

      So you’re right man we should all show support for the great coverage and analysis instead 😀

      I hope these events harm nobody out there but last for some more months Jon 🙂
      Thanks

      1. didir – you took the words out of mouth.I also started reading in 2010. Changed pages I recall. Donated small amount too but only recently. 🙂 My wife is also an extremely keen reader, probably more so than I 🙂

  29. Strong acidic smell of Sulphur in Egilsstadir just now and such beautiful blue clouds streaking across the sky, quite deadly I know but they are so beautiful

      3. Thank you, but could you remove two of these again, as this is repeatedly the same information.

    2. Interesting that for a long time there were posting about 4 main possible outcomes…of course with the added other scenarios can not be excluded. Now down to 3 and the other possible scenarios.

  31. Seems to me tremor and earthquake activity has been in a down cycle since last night. I would anticipate an upswing in activity as we move into evening hours today.

  33. Ugh, I a spam comment got into the normal comments on one of the older posts. I can’t find it, but if anyone sees it please let me know so I can remove it. It got back into the comments when I was saving false positives from the spam folder.

  34. Question to the experts:
    14.22 there was a 4.7 EQ in the north atlantic
    14.23 there was a 4.1 EQ in Iceland

    May they have been related in some way?

    4.7 EQ in north atlantic not at the plate boundaries is unusual strong.

  35. IMO signale (Warning) une forte concentration de SO2 devant affecter la côte Nord Est.
    (Forecasts indicate a high concentration of sulfur gases from the eruption. It can be expected that the area of the northern east coast north Weaponfirth will be most affected. Larger areas can not be ruled)

  38. The sky in B2 is like something out of a Turner landscape just now. A smudged mixture of pinks, oranges, greens and blues with a few twisters thrown in for good measure.

    1. I think after so much wind the past few days it is nearly perfectly calm and all that gas and water vapor is just lazily drifting around. Looks cool.

      2. Saturday a lot like today with wind strength but more towards WSW… Southerly for Sunday with pressure around 1020mb and back to westerly for Monday after a cold front moves through.. No storms.

  39. Have there been any recent (English) updates from Ruv? The last one I see is late Tuesday, almost 48 hours old.

    Are there any other good media sources?

  40. Just read that an M5 is 2.8×10**12 Joules or about one third of a hiroshima atom bomb. Quite a pounding that cap is taking.

  41. Has Anybody got a link with real time atmospheric sulfur dioxide levels in the northern hemisphere? Please 🙂

  43. NEW RUV – Subsidence by hundred of meters possible – Sept 11
    The caldera in Bardarbunga volcano could subside by hundreds of meters, say two of Iceland´s top geophysicists. The caldera has in recent days sunk by at least 20 meters, increasing the likelihood of an eruption there.

    NO one really knows for sure what will happen.
    Everyone is hedging. Que sera sera – whatever will be – will be.
    The scientists working over and nearby are in danger for their lives.
    I wish the best for Icelanders! GBU

  45. I see in baering.github.io a new swarm developing NW of Bardarbunga, below the small isolated glacier of neighbouring little vulcano. Depth = between 4 and 0 km . Let’s keep an eye on that … maybe it’s on the weak unsnowed side of Bard.

    1. All fogged (? or hazy/ steamy/ smokey) in as of a few minutes ago. And they’ve moved it’s perspective, as far as I can tell. Which isn’t necessarily a downgrade.

      The whole thing feels somewhat apocalyptic to me when watching it. Looks rather like I’d imagine hell to look.

      Thanks so much for your site and commentary, Jon Frimann (and all)!

    1. Must be missing something I don’t see anything at Askja on the charts but definitely an increase in quakes in the last few hours.

  48. New to this site, if this was to go bang in a worst case scenario, what are we talking about for Europe? Nuclear winter? crop failures?

    1. Well, I’m loath to do worst-case scenarios especially with all the unknowns here, so let’s try to break out what would be real bad.

      ***Any or all of these points are not necessarily true***

      — Caldera collapse from subsidence continues.

      — Bardarbunga contains two-figure cubic kilometers of eruptible magma.

      — This magma is broadly similar to the material erupted so far at Holohraun (high gas, very heavy in SO2 by volume).

      — Subsidence to failure happens without most of that magma being released in lava flows.

      — Failure of caldera from subsidence is sudden and large, merging a large amount of water with a large amount of extremely hot material. Violence ensues.

      — Winds are blowing SE towards Europe when this happens.

      What that would do, besides risking a very large glacial outburst flood on Iceland and severely endangering the lives of scientists working at Holohraun, is to release enormous amounts of ash and SO2 towards Europe over a short duration. With no time to diffuse across the atmosphere compared to everyone’s favorite eight-month Laki, this would pose serious acute health danger, not to mention ground airports for a while.

      It probably gets quite cold for the next couple years as well. The latitude is not “ideal” for injecting SO2, but all evidence is that Iceland has much more SO2 in its magma than more equator-located places.

      So there you go. I suspect this is something that is being discussed, as Civil Protection on Iceland was concerned about a large, rapid melt and the meeting with the government also included an epidemiologist, which only makes sense from a major fallout perspective.

      How much of those ingredients is true/will happen? Who knows.

      3. If you are the same person from VC…I am the one who posts as pomans. I wanted to ask you a question Bardarboom…what do you think of the possibility of that region lying on top of a huge mantle plume? Has anyone ever measured the reservoir beneath Bardarbuna? Would it not make sense in a freaky scary kind of way if the fissure and Bardarbunga were being fed from the same source….say the empty spot on that chart I showed you on VC?

  49. Dear All, also tried to find out the name of the volcano WNW of Barda. Mafl was faster.
    If someone is looking for a nice geographic map stating all necessary names:
    http://www.bgu-geoservice.de/zoomifyer/Island.htm
    “Subsidence of the Bárðarbunga caldera stops and the eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually.”
    When the magma chamber empty, well, sounds logical. (800 m ice gives a lot of pressure)
    All the best

  50. An answer for Phil from Finland , forgetting about a large eruption in one instance for a moment if we are still seeing the current plume in say 4-6 months from now, the level of SO2 in the Northern hemisphere could lower temps slightly. Winter 2015/16 would be much harsher. Health issues would follow regarding breathing difficulties.

    But people would instantly look to alternatives for what can be done if crops were to fail.

    Greenhouses all year round, parsnips and broccoli are impervious to frost , rhubarb can be grown by candlelight.

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