Posted on by Jón Frímann

Status update on Bárðarbunga volcano at 21:21 UTC

This information is going to get outdated quickly.

About how I work my data

I do all my data work in my head. Since I don’t have the computer power or the programming skills do so in normal computer. This is generally refereed as “thought experiments” I think. The data set for Bárðarbunga volcano are now huge and it takes me a while to update them and work out what I am seeing.

Caldera collapse is in progress in Bárðarbunga volcano

I know that scientists in Iceland don’t want to mention this in the news and are still hoping for current sequence of events to stop. That is not going to happen, it was already to late when the magma found a way out of the magma chamber on 16-August-2014, all that can be done now is to plan for the eventual collapse of Bárðarbunga volcano into a new caldera. I don’t expect the mountain to make it based on current earthquake activity. Eruptions should also be expected without warning around the circle that the earthquakes have now formed around the magma chamber that is collapsing in Bárðarbunga volcano.

Bárðarbunga volcano is however not going to collapse quickly, while the eruption once it starts in Bárðarbunga volcano is only going to last 1 week at the longest. This type of events takes several weeks to months from start to end. When Askja volcano collapsed in 1875 it started sometimes in the year 1874 and did not end until October 1875 (Global Volcanism Program says 1. Jan, 1875 to 1875, 17 Oct.). So this might take more than six months from start to end and might not end until sometimes next year (2015). There is also a chance this collapse is going to take just several weeks. There is no way to know for sure how long this is going to take, since it depends on many unknown factors. There is also a factor that no caldera collapse has taken place in Iceland since modern recording and monitoring of volcanoes started in Iceland (around 1970).

Current status of the Bárðarbunga volcano

  • Eruption continues in Holuhraun lava field. Most of the craters have now stopped erupting and one is now just emitting gas according to latest reports today.
  • Power of the eruption in Holuhraun is about the same since it started, even if there are fewer vents erupting lava at the moment.
  • Visibility has been limited today due to bad weather in the highland of Iceland.
  • SO2 levels in populated areas in east Iceland did go up to 2550µg/m³ around 15:00 UTC in Reyðjarfjöður village. Health warning was issued for the area during the peak of the SO2 pollution.
  • Largest earthquakes today had the magnitude of 5,5 at 05:25 UTC, second largest earthquake today had the magnitude of 4,8 at 15:51 UTC. Other earthquakes have been smaller. There is now less earthquake activity taking place since magma is not breaking as much crust as before.
  • The caldera has now dropped some 20 meters according to last measurements taken when there was a flight over Bárðarbunga volcano.
  • There continues to be earthquake in the dyke, most of it is in area that is covered with glacier.
  • Eruption in Hamarinn (Loki-Fögrufjöll) volcano is now a possibility. It might start without warning and without any earthquake activity, or just little earthquake activity.
  • Dyke activity might start to go south of Bárðarbunga volcano. It has not happened yet, but there is a high risk of it in my personal view.
  • This is creating stress changes around Bárðarbunga volcano. There is a minimal risk of that starting an eruption in other volcano systems that are nearby. It is not likely to happen, but the possibility is there. The reason is that Bárðarbunga volcano is a large volcano, the second biggest in Iceland in my view. With Hofsjökull volcano being the largest in Iceland in my view.
  • The lava field continues to block the glacier river Jökulsá á Fjöllum. As this progresses there is going to be a natural dam in this area after few days.
  • Seven minor eruptions have been confirmed according to the news today (on Rúv). This is besides the eruptions that where in the glacier free area (and are still ongoing). None of those eruptions seems to have lasted for long.
  • Based on harmonic tremor I think pressure is again increasing in Bárðarbunga volcano magma chamber system. This does not appear to be resulting in more powerful eruption in Holuhraun. That is why I think there is increased risk of new dyke to start forming.
  • Gas output from the eruption in Holuhraun remains high and it is extremely dangerous to go there. The lava field is also creating a lot of local weather in good weather. That also makes this dangerous. This eruption is no place for tourist.

Updates

Updates go here when they happen.

News bits

I am going to add news here in case anything happens.

References list

Caldera (Wikipedia)
Modelling Caldera Collapse (OSU)
Caldera (Science Daily)

263 Replies to “Status update on Bárðarbunga volcano at 21:21 UTC”

  1. So the poker game with Bardarbunga continues, when it finally reveals it’s hand, it might be one we don’t want to see!

  2. Thank you very much for the update! Just one question if I may: how is Hamarinn connected to these events and what makes you that activity could start there?

    1. It is a volcano inside the fissure swarm of Bárðarbunga volcano (south west of Bárðarbunga). It is highly active, but has in past few decades mostly erupted minor eruptions that nobody has noticed or just seen poorly on nearby SIL stations.

      2. Thank you for the updates and interesting links, Jón. 🙂

        Hamarinn had a small eruption in 2011, as far as I remember. There was a small glacial run the water of which ended up mostly in the (half empty) big reservoir of Hágöngulón.

        And here is some more information on calderas (a chapter of How volcanoes work) : http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/index.html
        (-> Volcano landforms -> calderas) I could btw. imagine that the example of Piton de la Fournaise / the shield volcanoes could be most similar to what we are observing here, the pit craters reminding me of the ice cauldrons.

  3. Awesome updates Jon, thank you!

    Once Bardarbunga starts erupting and collapsing in on itself, wouldn’t that explosive force “pop” the dyke maybe?

    Or do you think the dyke can empty through Bardarbunga once the eruption starts?

    Thank you for all you work, stay strong.

  4. Great update Jon, it is all starting to look a bit messy, this could turn very nasty very quick. The scientists out in the field risking everything trying to work out what’s going on, this is very dangerous and unpredictable. As for some of the strong seismic activity around Bards callers, surely she can’t take much more. To me this is all New territory, I can’t remember anything this unpredictable in Iceland. Lets hope the scientist stay safe.

    1. I would say they know. These are some of the preeminent experts in the field. Even if they’re not going to discuss it publicly [and IMO pretty much is, if non-Iceland media knew how to read], they know that caldera events are the real deal.

      Underlining what Jon said – NOT something for tourists!! Besides the existing gas, Bardarbunga itself can erupt without warning and may do so with far more violence than you are picturing. Floods in lowlands, serious lateral blast and flying rock in line with the crater, instantly lethal levels of SO2.

      Stay away, watch on camera. Historic enough that way.

  6. If the bardabunga rivet pops the whole rift could unzip to next rivet (Katla) and its good bye fragile western economy. On the otherhand it might just quiten down and stop

  8. Thank you for this update, Jon. You’re an excellent guide, sharing your knowledge, experience and observations with us. You keep us informed and help us to manage our expectations. Thank you!

  9. 20m already, that really is a lot. Guess she’ll give sooner rather than later…
    I’ll be in Keflavik on saturday, if I can charter a light aircraft and get a permission to fly over the area I’ll be sure to post the pics I snap here first 🙂

    1. It seems deflation of Askja was about 300 m in some months, before she snapped. But as this was in 1875, no instruments were there to measure earthquake and other activity before this happened.

  10. As I have said it while ago Iceland has been relatively quiet for quite along time, this could be the start of a restless period, years of pressure on the plates. Even when this is over, there are other volcanoes that are ready to blow in the next few years or so Kayla and Bella come to mind and even Askja with the seismic upheaval she is going through.

  11. Katla and Hekla, sorry about the spelling, it’s a new phone and haven’t worked out yet, with the stupid auto spell.

  12. Over the past 12 hours or so – almost zero quakes close up by Askja – just an interesting note.

  13. Hi Jon, thanks for the info – how does the size of glacier on bardarbunga caldera compare with what was on Askja in 1875? What are the different scenarios for how a collapse could play out, especially if a large amount of ice comes in contact with the magma rapidly. What do you think it would mean for vatnajokull as a whole?

    1. I don’t think there was any glacier on Askja volcano when it blew up in 1875. The main risk now is the glacier flood and the following ash cloud once an eruption starts in the caldera.

      We just have to wait and see what happens once this has started. Everything else is just speculation on possibilities.

  14. Kinda worrying seeing the stars form a ring shape around Bardarbunga on the earthquake map.

  15. I’ve done a little calcultion to roughly estimate the pressure that the ice pushes down on the caldeira. It’s a really really coarse estimation …

    I’ve guessed the caldeira has a perfect and homogeneous cylindric shape.

    * The diamater is about 2000-3000 m (isn’t it ?) so the mean is ~2500 m and the radius ~1250 m.
    * There is about 800 m ice high in it.
    * The ice density is about 0,92 kg/m³ (Sure, it’s not really relevant because ice is not pure and has accumulated and has been pressed for a very long time).

    So, finally, I’ve computed a pressure of ~ 0.071 atm exerced on the caldeira’s roof.

    1. Oups, sorry, there is a big error => ice density is 920 kg/m³ (fortunately ^^)

      So, the pressure pushed on the caldera’s roof down by ice is 70.67 atm (It seems more realistic 😉 )

      That’s 70 times the pressure exerted by the atmosphere on the surface of the Earth !

    2. Try that again, but use density of ice is 920 kg per cubic meter.

      Your result is a factor of 1000 too low!

  16. All these >M3 quakes around the Caldera, she really is taking a pounding now…

    She cannae take the strain captain!

  18. Are grf and von still the main tremor plots to watch at the moment?
    On the other side of Vatnajölul, ksk was also up quite a bit yesterday evening and again today. Is this area coupled to Bárðarbunga and would this also be telling us something?
    Thanks for your info and analysis of what’s going on.

      1. Yes I check this one as well. Strangely enough this one is no longer included in the list of stations in the overview of IMO. Could it be because it has become less reliable due to all the seismic activity it had to endure? I can imagine they are not able to reach all the stations to service them.

  20. Jon are you talking a possible Laki episode? Or not enough magma here to compare? Is it a possibility? Was curious when you said ” I don’t expect the mountain to make it based on current earthquake activity.” Reminds me of the power of Krakatoa.

    1. Laki was mostly effusive. Phreatomagmatic activity (a.k.a. hydromagmatic a.k.a. water versus magma) is highly explosive.

      The caldera being in play changes this event entirely.

      1. Oh, and there is a lot of magma here. Can’t say for sure without knowing the depth of the chamber, but three-figures cubic kilometers (not all ready to erupt, of course).

      2. So, now it is becoming more of a possibility than before, if I am reading you correctly? And depending on how much magma is erupted through the fissure before the collapse and how much was left in the magma chamber of Bardarbunga…Correct?

      3. This would be a different type of episode than Laki. Laki went on for a long time at a *relatively* low level. This would not be primarily a fissure eruption. It is a [particularly] large central volcano with a large central magma chamber.

        Any explosive component here will be larger than Laki’s explosive component, as that was not very big in the scheme of big volcanoes. With the size of the magma chamber, events similar to Mt. Pinatubo are possible even without blowing up the thing all at once (which I don’t really want to think about…)

        Yes, this is much more of a possibility than before. The problem is the subsidence, which is indicative of a caldera event. Iceland Met replaced its scenario tree with one focusing on the subsidence. If subsidence continues, this thing WILL eventually go off.

        The big question mark is how the subsidence relates to how much eruptible magma is in the magma chamber. Ordinarily, caldera events start with lots of venting, with the collapse occurring after the chamber is empty. In this case, the subsidence is happening while very little magma has erupted at Holohraun as lava, .2-.5 cubic kilometer. Bardarbunga is three magnitudes bigger than that, as indicated by the ring earthquakes, with eruptible material at least two magnitudes bigger. It SHOULD NOT be going into collapse this early – why? Is it the glacier’s fault?

        If you can answer that question, you should be awarded a PhD in volcanology, because many people in the future will from this event. It is not normal.

        It may be very dangerous. You do not want material similar to Laki blasted out “all at once” (days to few weeks). This would also melt much glacier and cause huge flooding damage.

  21. Is just me or has there been a big seismic increase around the world in the last four or five years, the earth crust has got a lot more unstable. Yes Jon I think you are right I don’t think Askja did have a glacier in 1874-1875, but look at all the big volcanoes Iceland does have and quite a few are under glaciers.

    2. There’s a theory the differential expansion of the ocean as it warms and the melting of ice in a lot of places is redistributing weight and flexing the Earth, perhaps enough to cause quakes — and we did have those giant ones off Indonesia and Japan, plus a couple off Chile too. Here’s an article though that shows that yes, in recent years there’s been an apparent increase, but if one looks back further, much more energy has been released in the past, e.g. the big one in Chile in 1960, which was 9.5. http://all-geo.org/highlyallochthonous/2010/04/the-seismic-non-pocalypse/

      (Although this article was pre-Japan)

  22. Jón

    Thanks for keeping us so well informed. The human brain is an excellent computer and I have a lot of confidence in the way yours computes. I can’t thank you enough for sharing the output from your ‘compter’ and maintaining this excellent thread.

    A collapse is the worse case scenario that could happen, as it could inject all the water and ice into the magma chamber instantly along with the entire volcanic plug. Personally I think that could be a 1 in 50,000 year event in terms of the VEI scale. This is all speculation as science has not been around long enougth to monitor such an event and I really would rather not see this happen. I’m in Scotland and everyone here is concerned about the independence referendum, with the current volcanic activity way off the radar of the UK media. If this event occurs as I see it, and I still hope it does not, it will have a major impact on NW Europe, far worse than any Icelandic eruption in human history and if it occurs before the Scottish referendum on the 18 September it will have a far greater impact on UK history than any of the current political debate!

    The computer in my head is working out what I should do for family and friends in such an event.

    Good luck all

  23. These latest quakes in Big B are close to the center of the caldera (1-4km). That’s different than the others by far. 5-10km has been the norm up to this point.

      2. I don’t think it is liquid, I think that concept is wrong. The eartquakes are coming from the contact of the solid plug wth the host rock in which the plug sits.

  24. IMO website, Increase in seismic activety, does that mean pressure building again Jon.

  26. Jon will probably know the answer to that, but to me there is no way that Bard can keep taking all this seismic events that is happening around the caldera. If you look on the IMO website all you see is a cluster of green stars (earthquakes over mag 3) just about on top of each other in and around Big B caldera, not a good sign in my books.

  29. John thank you so much for your opening statement about thinking through data. Media have a responsibility to clarify within limits of parameters of data in a way that feeds the public in a nonalarmist way. Much of what is said is similar to what is reported.
    This reporting is unique because you start over again and again with data as your base and with close alignment to that data speculate from your understanding within historical perspective from your interest and research. The combo gives a intuitive feel from insights obtained. Often sleeping on it is just the thing to bring up a renewed clarity.
    To me it is a merge between science and spirituality.
    Thank you.

  31. Sorry I should have taken a screen shot.
    It looks to be beyond midnight. Moving on to another day.

  34. When we see the intensity of these bigger quakes, it’s just the peak of the quake. They seem to last for at least 2-3 min and taper off. That some pretty good shaking. And I’m still thinking we might get in a 6M or two before it does erupt.

    1. I’m convinced these quakes are being generated *by* the subsidence, rather than causing it. You’re dropping many cubic kilometers of rock and ice, it is going to be disruptive.

      Sustained M5s are not normal (I’m saying “not normal” a lot here, aren’t I?) volcano activity.

      So what I think is happening if you get a M6 is that something would have broken completely.

  35. Yes, great update Jon. 🙂 Thank you for your efforts.
    What size eruptions is this volcano capable of? Is it as big as the 2010 eruption? It seems that every time I ask someone, they tend to go in to “The World is ending” mode! It is a perfectly logical question to ask.

    Anyway, thanks again sir. 🙂

    1. The eruption now is larger than the 2010 eruption. At least in terms of volume, this eruption (the lava phase) finished all the eruption in Fimmvörðuháls ridge on the first day around 12:00 UTC. There has not been any volcano ash event yet, so it is not possible to know that size yet.

      You can find eruption history of Bárðarbunga volcano here (I always link to it in the articles).

      http://www.volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=373030

  36. Wial, I believe there are 2 reasons the quake could be showing in the center of the caldera:
    1. Unlikely, but the location is wrong. Triangulating the epicenter is rather straightforward. Accurate depths are trickier, especially for small magnitude earthquakes.
    2. The most likely explanation is because magma “chamber” is a poor descriptor. Think of the chamber as a sponge, where the cellulose is solid (although hot) rock, and the empty spaces of the “sponge” / “chamber” filled with crystal mush. A majority percentage of a magma chamber is solid rock and can still generate earthquakes.

    1. Thanks Peridotite!

      Yet for a while there were no quakes in the center, now there are — or at least that’s my impression. What changed, if so?

  37. It’s complicated until it gets really really simple. When you see a ring of earthquakes ten times as powerful as most everything else it means this is about to get very serious. Subsidence? Tell that to BamBam. I think we’ll be moving past subtle interpretations of tremor data to kaboom soon. IMHO.

  38. There have been 20 great (Cat 8+)earthquakes since 2003. The previous 20 go back to 1949. So there is about a 6 fold increase. There is a connection between the rise in earthquake and volcanic activity and solar grand minimums.
    There is some literature on why this happens.
    http://www.tochiginokenkyusha.com/solar_and_earthquake.pdf
    Exposive Volcanic Eruptions Triggered by Cosmic Rays: Volcano as a bubble chamber – Japanese scientists. Published in Gondwana Research – paywalled.
    There is also one produced by NASA in 1989 but I can’t find it right now.

    1. Please leave your idiotic theroies to yourself. There is no connection between the sun and volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. None whatsoever.

      1. Oh come on, there IS a connection!! The sun shines on volcanos!! Giving us the chance to get some nice daytime pictures of eruptions!! Granted claims that the solar flares trigger cataclysms make me lol. But hey, its up there with UFO theories and tin foil hats in terms of entertainment value. Just lol, and let the crackpots think we are laughing with them 😉

      2. Come on! John said keep it nice on here. Regardless of what you believe I think you still have to respect the opinions of others. Lets not forget wasn’t that long ago the world was said to be flat!!! 🙂

      5. Well let’s consider some of the basic facts (as grabbed off various websites): A large coronal mass ejection “can contain 10 to the 16 grams (ten billion tons) of matter that can be accelerated to several million miles per hour “. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/primer/primer.html

        “The inner Van Allen belt consists largely of highly energetic protons, with energy exceeding 30,000,000 electron volts. The peak intensity of these protons is approximately 20,000 particles per second crossing a spherical area of one square cm in all directions….Studies show that intense solar activity, such as a coronal mass ejection, may sometimes diminish the outer region and produce a third fleeting zone of charged particles between the outer and inner regions.” http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/622563/Van-Allen-radiation-belt

        So beyond dispute, tremendous energies and masses are involved. Clearly that’s got to have some effect, as the aurorae show. The question is, does the Earth feel that like a body blow, or is it insignificant relative to Earth’s mass, and/or completely cushioned by the atmosphere, like a perfect airbag? Then also, what about the electrical effects that famously set telegraph wires on fire in the Carrington Event?

        I do understand the endless hypotheses about what cause earthquakes get a bit tiresome. And some deserve to be dismissed out of hand. However, it would be good to be able to actually explain why, if so, even if the effort is not always warranted. Earthquake records are data full of a lot of natural noise. That does not mean they aren’t also full of signals, that perhaps we can only infer from principles of basic science — as in, “that was big enough for Earth to have had to have felt it even if we can’t attribute any one quake to the event”. Like cancer after a radiation release. But those with better physics will have to tell me whether there’s any signal at all, in the case of a CME’s influence on the Earth’s crust.

        Similarly for the Moon, hypotheses about which are also often derided, which to me seems even less scientifically responsible given the indisputable cases of tidal flexing causing volcanism elsewhere in the Solar System, most obviously Io, as I’m fond of repeating, as well as the liquid ocean under the ice of Europa. The Moon moves entire oceans around every day. Why not the crust and mantle too? Why shouldn’t a super moon have enough of a different effect to trigger events waiting to happen? Sure, if the math says this can be discounted, fine, but science is about rigorously disproving things, not just being skeptical a priori.

        However, since the signal is lost in the noise, it’s also probably a big waste of time worrying about it too much — the noise, which is actually composed of larger more intelligible factors, like measurable strain on faults, is where the effort should go. A CME would be a trigger, at best, like fracking can be.

      7. I can’t answer everything, because I don’t have the knowledge for that. But about the moon and the tides. The tides is not local events, tides are global, even in large lakes (and then I’m talking about really large lakes) you don’t see the moon create tides. An eruption is triggered by relatively local events.

    2. “There have been 20 great (Cat 8+)earthquakes since 2003.”

      – If this is true. please list them because I don’t remember that many in the last 11 years.

  39. Crazy theory in 2007 about the sun causing earthquakes. BUT, it’s only a theory that has yet to be proved and if the results come in as predicted, then maybe there was something to it. Some weird guy many years ago had a theory that the earth revolved around the sun and was imprisoned for this thoughts. Just saying.

  40. “‘Tis but a flesh wound”

    Quakes are reduced after the M5.2 at 07:38 UTC. …Seismic activity is returning to other parts of the country.

    Methinks it’s over or at least soon to be so.

    1. Thanks, that does look like an increase, but too short a history — the 9.5 in Chile in 1960 dwarfs all those. Remember it’s a log scale. It would be great (I suppose) to have earthquakes echo all the other trends related to changing climate (tornadoes and hurricanes have definitely changed their behavior for instance, due to hotter oceans and meandering and/or stalled jet streams), and as I’ve said previously there are some plausible arguments for why this might be happening to earthquakes too (flexing due to ocean swelling from heat and displacement of water by melting on a global scale primarily (and again, geophysicists feel free to roll your eyes at me)), but 9.5 people, 9.5.

      Let alone Laki.

      Or in other words, extraordinary evidence needed.

  43. Jon has been saying for the past couple of weeks that the mountain would be the main event, whilst some others saying just a fissure eruption was on the cards. Time will tell but i think jons going to be proved right!. Human life spans are tiny compared to geological timescales, but it does seem that we may witness a big event soon. To the naysayers and people who would call me a doomer, i say just look in the history books for your answers. Its no good emoting about it either, what will be will be

  44. Weather Update for Iceland:
    A good day for viewing as winds are lighter and good visibility. No fronts passing through. It all changes later today as winds increase to gale up on the mountains but only force 5-6 at sea level and rain overnight but more in the west than the east. The east is closer to the Euro High that is aligned North Norway to France in general. A cold front passes over Iceland tomorrow. Another decent day for Saturday with ridging from the High. For Iceland its not bad weather 🙂 Wind direction same as it is now with just subtle movements. This is based on the UK Met model and I have not looked at other models.

  46. It has been suggested elsewhere that there is possible interaction between the Grimsvotn system and the Bardabunga system and that one ‘might’ trigger the other.
    Grimsvotn erupted in 2011 and rapidly reinflated. Last year we saw Askja caldera lake thaw its ice. The IMO were sufficiently concerned to move instruments up there.

    Then we had the landslide and tsunami in the caldera lake, and now the current series of events which are unfolding.

    It is patently obvious to me that these events are connected, the whole Vatnajökull area is highly active, and just as Jon says certain volcanoes can go without warning.

    When tectonic plates move as much as they have done, the energy released is massive. The fault running through Iceland is doglegged, which is why the are so many fissues/rifts in the country. Combine that with the (theoretical) evidence of a mantle plume poking up from the Astenosphere into the lithosphere and you have a box of fireworks with the touch paper much too close to a naked flame.

    The ongoing list of possibilities listed by the IMO and other experts in the field show that even with the best will in the world NO-ONE knows what is going to happen for sure. Although it is becoming increasingly evident that we are in for an historic event.

    I just hope everyone who wants to see ‘the big one’ realises the global impact of this scenario will have climatic impacts that the northern hemisphere will have to cope with for years. The Sulphur Dioxide problem is only just starting, if production of it continues or accelerates the resulting sulphurous acid rain with affect crops and waterways as wells as all creatures respiratory systems.

    I am scared of what can happen here, and hope the IMO’s first option is the outcome, but I know Jon is right, sadly.

      1. That was a good post. It’s the way I’m reading the situation.

        What I would like to see is governments planning for such an event, as I am sure Iceland will be. I doubt the UK is, because of the Scottish debate. For instance they should be stockpiling lime for farmers fields, NHS preparation for increase in patients with respiratory problems etc.

    2. I agree. This is going to drag on for years. Barda’s eruption will likely not equal that of Laki 1783-4, but the whole of activity in the next few years will as I suspect more volcano’s will erupt. I am also looking for very damaging weather in northern Europe, especially Russia (E:37)

  50. Morning all.

    Gosh, what an update Jon.

    Seriosu uptick in >3 mag quakes in the caldera over the 48 hrs. It’s really starting to look very unstable. I hope this doesn’t turn out to be as big as the scenario I am imagining in my head right now, but I don’t have a good feeling about this generally.

    How can a caldera collapse be “good” even in a best case scenario?!

    1. I’m seeing two new things on 3d bulge: more earthquakes at depth under the caldera, and more up and down through the column, and a pattern of quakes in the small volcano directly the west, Tungnafellsjökull. OK also fewer quakes near the surface under the fissure but more at depth, too.

      Any chance Tungnafellsjökull could blow?

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