Posted on by Jón Frímann

Daily Bárðarbunga update on 16-September-2014

This is the current status of Bárðarbunga volcano. This information might get outdated quickly if anything major happens. They are good now.

Currant status of Bárðarbunga volcano at 13:47 UTC

  • There is now one month since activity started in Bárðarbunga volcano. Around 20.000 earthquakes have been detected in this one month. Normal quiet year in Iceland has around 12.000 earthquakes. There have been around 229 earthquakes larger than magnitude 3,0. Almost all of them have taken place in Bárðarbunga volcano and in the ring fault that has formed.
  • It is expected that rift episode that is now taking place north of Bárðarbunga is going to last for months. So it is important to be patience when waiting for nature to do its thing.
  • Bárðarbunga volcano caldera is currently dropping around 50cm/day. That might change without warning.
  • The eruption in Holuhraun is ending slowly. It is expected that it is going to end in next few days. This does not mean the eruption is over, it means there is now increased risk of new eruption along the dyke. There is high risk of any new eruption taking place under the glacier. Since most of the dyke is under the Vatnajökull glacier.
  • ESA has interesting article about the SO2 pollution here.
  • Largest earthquake today had the magnitude 4,8 at 10:36 UTC. It is the largest earthquake so far. Second largest earthquake took place at 09:13 UTC and had the magnitude of 3,6.
  • Harmonic tremor data suggest that pressure might be increasing again inside Bárðarbunga volcano system. That is not good news and might start an eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera.
  • Rifting episode has not yet started south of Bárðarbunga volcano. When that is going to start I do not know. I do however expect it to happen soon, so there is risk of eruption both north and south og Bárðarbunga, along with eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano it self. This does not mean that all areas are going to erupting at the same time, that might happen in some cases.

Update at 21:42 UTC

  • Largest earthquake so far is a magnitude 5,2 that took place at 14:47 UTC. More earthquakes have been taking place in the last hour, but there magnitude has not been confirmed yet.

No other updates at present time. I will add new updates as needed.

Still more on comments

Please keep off-topic discussion to a minimal amount (if you really have to go off-topic). This is not the website to talk about religion or politics. There is plenty of space to that elsewhere on the internet. So please keep your comment on-topic. Also remind people to be nice to each other. I will add repeated offenders to the “your comment go directly to the spam bin” list. I have to have some control over the comment. Since the eruption and activity in Bárðarbunga volcano is going to last for several months.

I also suggest to people to take it easy. Nature is going to do its thing in Bárðarbunga volcano in its own time and way. There is nothing we can do about it, expect maybe get the hell out of the way if you are so unlucky to be close to Bárðarbunga volcano when it starts erupting.

Article updated at 21:45 UTC.

383 Replies to “Daily Bárðarbunga update on 16-September-2014”

  1. Fog or not something is happening in Big B more larger EQ’s and GPS dropping fast, but this has happened before it evens out when time averages come in to play. Commentators here seem to have prior knowledge of these larger earth quakes before they come on to 3dbulge is there another site which puts these up earlier

    2. I can see large Icelandic earthquakes 5-8 minutes ahead of the IMO drumplots by monitoring station II.BORG.BHZ, using GEE software.
      It’s free from the Univ. of South Carolina.; you can download it here:
      http://www.seis.sc.edu/gee/

  5. Technical little question: 9.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga is that distance measured from the centre of B, or from the edge?

    1. don’t know. from some station I guess, the big EQ are almost always “NE or Bardarbunga”. But the last big EQ is the first one so much to the NE, it’s actually offset from the usual “ring of EQs” that seem to be the edge of the caldera. But maybe the exact location needs be confirmed.

      1. I’ve always assumed that Bárðarbunga (when used in this context, i. e. distance from an epicenter) refers to the summit of the “mountain”. Back in the old days (70’s) before the satellite era, Bárðarbunga wasn’t known to be the monster that it is – 10s of kms across – and was just a high outcropping of rock at the side of the icecap.

      1. Yes, see my comment above.

        Eruption still visible in Kverfjoll webcam and now also at Hekla webcam.

    2. Dear friend, what’s happening: The subsidence of the caldera is resulting in an earthquake or was it the opposite? Please.
      And … the fall of the caldera could not be a reaction against the eruption of magma that is occurring in the fissure with consequent emptying of Burdarbunga’s chamber ? this case there would be no danger?
      Thank you.
      Sorry my mistakes

    2. It might be dropping for up to three hours after the last earthquake. GPS signals take time to calculate correctly, this is almost live so expect errors.

  9. Is there a site for the ‘R2D2’ doppler radar data? The default weather radar from iceland met office use a much more remote weather radar.

  10. I think some change of wind occurred, and eruption is now visible from the west, as lava lightens clouds going towards that direction. Hekla webcam shows a red glow now from Holuhraun. IMO gas warning is now towards the southwest, near Hofsjokull.

    Some deep fog, because of the changing wind (now blowing from NE), blocks the view. NE winds brings fog into that area. Because that’s the closest ocean facing side. That’s why eruption is not visible from Mila Bardarbunga webcams.

    It’s also visible on Kverfjoll webcam.

    1. Also can be seen on Jökulsárlón webcam. Usually it is too cloudy to show anything from there, same problem with Hekla. It must be very clear tonight… at the least, there’s line-of-sight to these webcams.

  11. Sure seems like the camera feed is operational on mila1 – just nothing to see at the moment (fog, clouds, snow, dust, wind, steam??, ash???) – you would think the lava would still glow even if the eruption had stopped.

    1. See my comment above.
      Eruption is still going on. Fog came from the NE and blocked Bardar Mila webcams. But eruption visible on Kverfjoll and Hekla webcams.

      1. Irpsit, since you are in the knowing would it be too much to ask for you to update on meteopt.com on our language? Sometimes i have some trouble dealing with some tech explanations here.

        Um abraço

    1. I see what you mean but this is not necessarily so since the quakes were 12 km apart and the first 2 km deeper. How it shows up on the plots would depend on the location of the station. Also the Richter scale is not linear but logarithmic so that a seemingly small increase in magnitude is actually quite a lot more energy. Looking at it from the VON station the plot looks about the same. But I’m no seismologist and the analysis is some what complex so it would be interisting what they make of it…

      1. Agreed about the logarithmic nature of magnitude scales .

        I just found the size difference a bit extreme considering the BORG station that graph is from, isn’t local; it’s about 215 km due west of Bardarbunga.
        IMO located the earlier mag 5.2 2.8 kms SW of Bardarbunga–so it was a few kms closer to the BORG instrument, than the most recent Mag 5.4 quake, located 9 km NE of Bardarbunga.

        As long as they get the magnitudes and depths as accurate as possible for the long-term databases, that’s what I find important. 🙂 It helps with future study.

    2. A 5,4 releases about twice the energy of a 5,2 and four times the energy of a 5,0.

      Every two whole numbers on the Richter scale is a thousand-fold increase in energy.

    3. Would the local geology at Bárðarbunga make a big difference on how well the signal is (e)/(trans)mitted?

    1. That’s cute, lol.
      Btw, Nikr, I finally saw your question on the previous page and attempted an answer. Sorry it took so long.

      1. Thanks for your reply. I left another question on the other page. I’m still a little confused.

    2. AHAHAaaaa! Good one! Yeah the visitor is spooky at night.
      People may like this also – of Sept 13 – Norway gets Barda ash, gas
      Sound ON
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1zgKwWsc3I

      Pretty much total fog on Bar 1 and 2 this mornin.
      Last nite cam2 panned close to its housing and showed wood posts and a housing area. Mila may have gone in for some maintenance. Jus a guess.

  16. A small glow is visible on the right from the Hekla webcam. What would this be looking at? I don’t know where that one is.

    1. Looked like a mud fountain – is that a part of Barda – or elsewhere?
      Barda has so many areas all with different names – I cant tell where people talking aobut

      1. Reykjanes is very far from the erupting Bárdarbunga.
        http://atlas.lmi.is/kortasja_en/?x=562665.7353314705&y=495556.2611125223&l=2&anno=1&bm=3
        You have the big white glacier in the southern middle of the country, Bárdarbunga is in its northwestern corner. When you go to the southwesternmost peninsula of Iceland, this is Reykjanes. The hot spring area in question is near the town of Grindavík (you can enlarge on the map). The hot spring is part of the main geothermal area of the volcanic system which has the same name as the big peninsula, Reykjanes.

        This is where the Mid Atlantic Ridge leaves the ocean, continues on land and traverses Iceland more or less from Southwest to the Northeast. The rifting we are observing now is part of the mostly submarine processus on this ridges which marks at the same time the area of plate divergence of the Northamerican and Eurasian Continental Plates.

  19. Something that no one has mentioned so far in the Media and I am curious: for the Northern Hemisphere, how will the gases out-gassed so far effect the upcoming winter? I know that there is significant SO2 pollution on a local and regional basis, but what is in store hemispherically.

    1. I’m a layman, but I think you’d need several months at this SO2 release rate to have a measurable effect. Plus a relatively tame effusive eruption is probably not delivering gasses into the tropopause/stratosphere, where they can persist.

    2. So far? No noticeable effect. Check back in a few months/when a big volcano blows its top.

  20. The fog may be clearing finally. I’ve seen a red glow in the sky on Mila-1 a couple of times now.

    1. I believe it has been erupting under the ice all along inside that caldera. I also believe that melt water is rising enough to begin to start floating the ice pretty soon. That caldera in the area where the quakes are is bowl shaped and it is going to hold the water in it until the water rises high enough to find an exit. I have a hunch that drop in the level of the GPS is not the crust collapsing under the caldera, I believe it is ice melting and when you get a quake, the ice settles some more. I think now we are getting to the point where the ice is becoming buoyant but we will just have to see.

      The above is my personal speculation based on little more than “gut feel”.

      1. You be sure that it has not. We would have noticed by now due to floods from the glacier if that was the case. There have already been in total seven eruptions during the last month. Only three of them where on glacier free area.

      2. Ice has a relative density 90% of water. That means that if the ice is a solid block then it won’t start to float until it can displace 90% of its volume of water. If the ice is badly fractured then some of it will try to float, but unless it can find a way to the surface then it will still act as a solid block. There probably is some water under the ice, but that would help to cushion the effects of the quakes by spreading the shock waves over a larger area. Some of the fall in GPS measurements is likely due to ice melt, but the greater effect is still due to changes in the floor of the caldera.

      3. The GPS data is quite fascinating. I’d say there is a lot going on, and I certainly would not volunteer to stand on the ice with my Garmin unit. That being said, the large number of very large quakes, all presumably in the magma chamber indicate that the magma system may be recharging.

        Crosspatch may be on to something with the idea of a giant tumbler of ice with a rocky, or volcanic glass bottom rocking the 50 cubic kilometer ice plug in the caldera. It’s hard to imagine what a leviathan Bardabunga is – it’s a monster.

        Will it settle down, and be like Askja or will it be Mazama? We dont know, but the massive size of this volcanic zone makes me think the latter may be the true answer.

      4. Here is the reason I say this. I saw a cross-section diagram of the area where the main caldera is. It is much smaller than the glacier itself. The cross section was north/south, they did not have an east/west cross section.

        The South wall of the caldera was very steep, nearly 90 degrees several hundred meters down and then curves and flattens out then begins to climb up the North wall. The North wall is at more of an angle and less steep. The ice covers the walls by about 100 meters or so. The diagram gave the impression that several hundred meters of water would have to accumulate in that caldera (crater) before the level got high enough to spill over the rim (still about 100 meters under the ice) and create a glacial flood.

        Yes, an eruption outside of that crater (but still under the glacier) would create an immediate outburst of water, but an eruption INSIDE that crater would not, until the water level overfilled the crater and then spills out.

        But again, that is pure speculation on my part based on that diagram and the behavior I have seen. In fact, the GPS movement of other stations would seem to indicate inflation of the crust while the GPS directly over the caldera is showing deflation. To explain that, I say ice is melting but has not yet melted enough to find an exit out of that depression.

  24. Gut feelings are not enough. Theories have to be tested against the facts. Ice on ice or ice on rock slippage wont generate the energy necessary for the quakes observed. Also the depth of the EQs is kilometers down under the ice. Sorry to be a spoil sport but the theory doesnt hold water (groan).

    1. I did not mean to imply the ice slippage is causing the quakes. The quakes are causing the slippage.

      1. If the caldera were collapsing, surrounding stations would be moving TOWARD it, they aren’t. They are moving away from it. The behavior of the surrounding stations says that BB is inflating. Only the station at the top is dropping.

      Now looking at the shape of the GPS from that one station, I now wonder if the water has found an outlet. Rather than a sharp drop, we now see a gradual drop.

      1. Regards the drop, I think it was Unmentionable who suggested that was due to B being pulled apart by tectonic forces.

        I think Jon suggested a while back that the water or some of it was going to Grimsvotn lake. That would imply a subglacial passageway from the caldera exists.

        Time will tell.

      2. There are three CGPS sites (HAFS, VONV and GFUM) near to Bardarbunga that have recently been converging on a point immediately SW of Bardarbunga’s rim and the closest station, VONC, still is:

        http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/gps-measurements/bardarbunga/

        GFUM has it’s own vertical issues now so is no longer moving towards B, and HAFS has decided to point at a direction between the two calderas. Taken together with the vertical motion plot it’s hard to see this as other than crustal subsidence around B that’s accentuated over its lid. The distension that has already occurred was always going to produce the subsidence we see, but it will be followed by a lagged uplift. If there’s an alternate interpretation of the CGPS and subsidence I’d like to read what other people have to say about it.

  25. Ice melt and abnormal magmatic intrusion hold the most weighting. I noticed someone comparing Mazama from my side of the world (pacific mountain, North America) which was shields and stratos until caldera collapse. Also one of the largest known eruptions and large ash falls in geological evidence. The Garfield peak trail is a must for anyone taking a vacation here, especially hikers. Some stunning lake views showing pieces of the original mazama before it blew, shame the beauty comes after and leaves us pondering what Barda is capable of throwing up yet!

      1. Actually 23 seconds between the two, and IMO have posted them.

        Katla EQ –

        Tuesday
        16.09.2014 21:33:51 63.728 -19.323 1.1 km 4.5 65.03 9.6 km NE of Básar

        Bardarbunga EQ –

        Tuesday
        16.09.2014 21:34:12 64.692 -17.378 7.7 km 5.4 99.0 9.2 km NE of Bárðarbunga

  27. The caldera lid is a giant piston some km thick sitting on lighter magma. The magma wants to come up anyway its also full l of gas that wants to fizz. If there is a hole in the lid it wouldnt just sink fast like a stone but the magma would fizz up through the crack widening it fast and the whole thing would blow. The piston is dropping but only because magma escapes via the fissure. GPS did show movement towards the caldera which reversed yesterday. The reversal and slowing of the collapse along with deep eqs accompanied by harmonic tremor shows magma entering the chamber. Usually magma creeps up around the edge of the piston where the ice is thin. We would see signs of any eruption quickly. The increase in frequency of eqs even if small is a sign.

      1. Yes, I did wonder if magma is finding a new route out at the moment.

        I see we are running blind today. She’d better not give out until the cams are back. That would be just frustrating as hell and a real shame for the science world as a whole.

      2. Very probably, the webcams would be the first thing to go if / when Bárdarbunga does something decisive…

      1. Yes, that sounds probable. The glacier ice must be under a hell of a lot of stress at the moment with the rapid downward movement.

  29. Good morning my square eyed friends, and yes my eyes are becoming square after the many hours looking at the screen.
    Well we have had another drop in the GPS data. I mentioned the other day that it was moving down in steps, small ones and large ones. I was thinking that if this trend continued as a large step it could take between 25-27 hours for the next slip. Well it longer than that.
    If you look at the chart you can notice a slow steady downward drop, the trend lines are very narrow and the MA is steady, and this is still after a few large quakes and then the big slip.
    The trend line is nice and narrow this morning lets see if it stays the same during the day. it could catch us out and decide to have another fall in a few hours we will have to wait and see.
    I think someone mentioned that other GPS measurements implied that the volcano was expanding and the only one that was different was the one on top of the crater.
    Could someone please explain a bit more regarding this and or their theories why this is happening.

    2. You cannot take any notice of instantaneous readings. That’s not how the GPS works. It has an accuracy of + or – 3Metres, hence why 30 minute & 3 hour averaging is used. It just isn’t accurate enough to show a 20 or 30cm drop from one or two readings. Look at all the + & – spikes around midnight. At one point it was showing a rise of 70cm, then next reading a drop of over 2M. This is why it cannot be used as people are doing currently.

      1. Thanks for your clarification. I just thought that the drop seems to be different than last night were the drop was measured pretty sharp at one point or the peak also.

      2. Andy it depends if the GPS system in the crater is being used in Kinematic differential mode ie linked with another GPS receiver at a fixed point and at a known elevation (outside the crater) which is using data from the same satellite array as the crater GPS receiver. If it is in differential operation, which I would assume it is, then elevation accuracy can be to around 4 centimetres. I believe military systems may do better.
        see
        http://www.trimble.com/gps_tutorial/dgps.aspx
        and
        http://www.oc.nps.edu/oc2902w/gps/gpsacc.html

  32. With magma rising from below filling the ground, in this case the volcano will expand up and out. Except for the caldera in this case

    1. Thanks for the reply Johan, is there any other reason that could cause this apart from magma rising ?

    1. No. See my comment above.

      If it had really dropped 1M there would be a bloody big quake, a flood or some other indication.

      It hasn’t dropped 1M after even the biggest quakes we have seen, which should be indication enough that they are eronous readings.

      1. Having many years familiarity of working with GPS data, I can confirm that any attempt to read anything into instantaneous changes is wasted effort. GPS accuracy is influenced by many factors – the ionosphere, reflection from nearby objects, dilution of precision because of the angles of visible satellites, clock precision, etc. It is amazing that we can get submeter accuracy at all considering these factors. For anything in the centimeter range, it takes time — averaging the signals over a period of time or factoring out the noise using a differential base station. And after all that, vertical measurements are still the most inaccurate component of a GPS signal.

        Shorter: just look at the blue line (3-hour average) and even then, just ignore the most recent hour or so of that.

  34. What Scot-John posted about water inside Bar finding an underground passage out of there even makes sense to me! I am very simple. That terminology I can ‘see’ – visualize.
    I saw on Nature TV last nite a huge water under the Sahara in Africa!
    Thank you Scot-John.

    Barda is like it is living, breathing, venting some of its rage out of our sight.
    He has not decided if he will give us a show – or not. He is just fuming now.
    🙂

    Bard Cam 1, 2 – mostly heavy fog
    Gullfoss cam has a waterfall like Niagara falls
    Katla – total fog
    akureyri – clear near cam – You can see the town and river!

    I took a tour of all the cams. Neat! 🙂

  36. The seismic activity of the Bárðarbunga am losing more and more, the volcanologist Ármann Höskuldsson said yesterday in a press conference. I emphasize: YESTERDAY! This morning, or at night, there were already two in the Bárðarbunga quake of 5.4 and 5.2 mag.
    The scenario for the coming weeks, outlining the volcanologist is quite optimistic:
    The volcanic activity diminishes, perhaps still opens one or the other craterlets and more Rifte poppen on how far in Holurhaun. The risk of a major outbreak has dropped enormously, Höskuldsson says in Morgunbladid.

      3. There should still be a link (to an Icelandic site?) if he talked to Morgunbladid, because this is an Icelandic newspaper / website.

        Perhaps a misunderstanding?

        Is not your text also Google translated?

  37. @Unmentionable:
    your comment of September 17, 2014 at 08:05:

    how to explain the very latest GPS movements ?,
    it seems as though one must either hypothesize(and its a bit of a struggle) :

    1) an elongated WNW to ESE zone of uplift
    2) a small rifting zone with the same orientation, possibly connecting the known historical NNE to WSW rifting zones

  39. Interesting plot on the GPS data, it seems there is a NW/SE rifting occurring, although there are some anomalies, i’m not sure what level of GPS accuracy they can achieve in field, but with differential augmentation its possible to reduce the error considerably below the 1-3 metre range quoted above, the problem with differential augmentation is that it requires a correcting signal from somewhere that is extremely accurately surveyed , it works by taking a known position and reading the GPS position for the same spot the GPS shift (the difference between the know surveyed position and where the GPS says it is) can then be fed into the other stations to correct GPS position error, we use this to fly very accurate GPS approach into airports with out ground based precision approach aids such as ILS

    Of course the problem here is that the correcting position needs to be near the points to be corrected and the bigger problem is that it also needs to be in a stable position, not on ground that its self is moving !!

    It may well be that the authorities have access to American military GPS signals which significantly more accurate than the free to use civilian systems, given the potential world wide upset that could occur if/when this goes bang, then you’d like to think their using something better than a Garmin hand held!!

    Ultimately its the trend thats important not one of values

  41. I am intrigued by the thought that there may be some liquid water in the Bardarbunga caldera, above the rock surface but below the glacier. This water is likely to be under considerable pressure due to the weight of the overlying ice, and thus being forced down into any available cracks in the rock. It may thus be lubricating the shear surface at the uppermost few hundred metres of the ring fault.

    Several commenters have stated that when the water contacts with the hot magma there will be an explosion of steam and ash. I can see why. The volume of steam is massively greater than the equivalent volume of liquid water – and such a rapid expansion would pulverise small pieces of lava which would then escape in the plume.

    That’s all fine, but what about the pressure? Sub-sea extrusion of lava on rift zones creates pillows (rather like the continuous squeezing out of toothpaste). Wouldn’t Bardarbunga’s magma extruding under the pressure of the glacier do likewise? In other words a gentle extrusion?

    I thought the main reason for magma to erupt explosively was due to it degassing as the pressure drops when the magma rises to the surface. Some magmas (such as in the subduction zones like the Cascades) are very gassy and create explosive ash eruptions. But rift zone magma is different, and the sub-glacial water is not mixed with it?

    Can anyone add to this?

  42. In my opinion the risk of a great eruption is passing. Save a prayer saying thanks for God.
    The consequence would be catastrophic to Iceland and Europe.
    Cheers for every one

    1. Is that a scientific opinion or wishful thinking?

      I don’t see what’s changed. The fissure is still erupting. The magma displaced is but a small portion of what Bardarbunga holds.

      The caldera is collapsing – 50cm per day. How that can be deemed as a risk passing I do not know!

      Large quakes continue to rattle the volcano daily, often serveral times.

      GPS showing movement along the entire rift area.

      How has the risk subsided?

      1. Only a intuition, sorry.
        But the subjective has been considered by modern physicists as a valid analysis factor.
        Take care.

  43. Mabe it just feels like that. We are getting more confident; been there, done it, nothing happened last time! Possibly misplaced confidence though.

  44. Does anyone know what strength maximum earthquake occured when Askja caldera collapsed

  46. New interview today with volcanologist in the field Ármann Höskuldsson (no English translation yet), I just mention the most important information:
    – situation similar as yesterday: eruption is waning
    – main crater Baugur not very active anymore (was still rather active 2 days ago)
    – just one crater north of it rather active with a lava lake in it
    – one small new crater active between Baugur and Sudra
    – eruption cloud does not go so high anymore
    but: still very much inflow into the intrusion, so that this eruption will close up soon and another begin.
    This is just the beginning of a longer process. And there is the possibility of an eruption under Dyngjujökull (where most of the quakes are now).
    There is also the possibility that a lot of magma is accumulating under Bárdarbunga (which he believes).
    http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/09/17/99_9_prosent_likur_a_odru_eldgosi/

      1.  Measurements show that the lava field in Holuhraun continues to expand. There are no signs of decreasing lava
        production.
         The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with the rate of about 50 cm over the last 24 hours.
         Seismic activity has been rather intensive over the last 24 hours. Yesterday 7 earthquakes larger then M3,0 were
        detected in Bardarbunga. The biggest were M5,4 and M4,8 last night. Smaller earthquakes were detected in
        Dyngjujokull glacier and in north part of the dyke.
         GPS monitoring show irregularity in in the crustal movements over the last few days. This sign could indicate that
        the magma movement under Bardarbunga is changing.
         No change has been detected in water measurement.

      3. Citing the a.m.text (http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947 17.September):
        “Three scenarios are considered most likely:
        The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually
        and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops
        .
        Large scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In
        this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup and an ash producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.

        Large scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an
        eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading
        to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.

        Other scenarios cannot be excluded.”

  49. Forecast of SO2 deserves attention, as it will reach new populated areas:

    Forecast for today is is for the SO2 cloud near Langjokull and Hofsjokull today (somewhere leaning near Gulfoss and Geysir and Blonduós), so any pollution near the south coast is not yet much pronounced.

    But tomorrow forecast is more towards engulfing the entire Grimsnes region tomorrow (near Selfoss, Hella and Laugarvatn, and definitively affecting the area near Hekla and Geysir). First time the SO2 pollution gets to the populated areas of southwest and south Iceland

    Link here http://www.vedur.is/vedur/spar/textaspar/oskufok/

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