High earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano

Yesterday (15. September 2023) an earthquake swarm took place on Fagradalsfjall volcano. This earthquake swarm wasn’t in the news because it was only small earthquakes, that is earthquakes with magnitude less of Mw1,0. It was not even felt by the people standing on the volcano because of depth. If this earthquake swarm has stopped I don’t know. Since most of this earthquakes don’t show up in the automatic earthquake list at Icelandic Met Office website. They only appear after a manual review by Icelandic Met Office.

A lot of orange dots on Fargradalsfjall volcano showing high level of earthquake activity in the volcano.
High earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

In my view, this means that next eruption might happen between November to February 2024 if this earthquake activity and dyke intrusion activity continues as it is currently doing. It has happened before earlier eruptions that a high period of activity is followed by a period of quiet until an eruption happens. Why that is I don’t know, that is a pattern I’ve observed. I don’t know if there has been change after last eruption in Fagradalsjall volcano. That is a possibility that should not be ruled out.