Posted on by Jón Frímann

Short update on El Hierro volcano eruption

This is a short update on El Hierro volcano eruption. As the situation is changing fast this past few hours.

It seems that the eruption in El Hierro volcano is gaining strength and power. The harmonic tremor on the seismomter that is on the El Hierro Island it self has started to get saturated again. It also have been unconfirmed reports of the south fissure growing in size. But so far nothing has happened in the north part of El Hierro volcano. Even if there have been many earthquakes in that area. But this area fell suspicious silent this morning. So something might be up in that area. Update 1: A string of earthquakes happened around 12:00 UTC in this area. Suggesting that something is still up there.


The harmonic tremor at 13:52 UTC. Notice how the tremor has started to saturate the seismometer. Copyright of this picture belongs to Instituto Geográfico Nacional.

What happens next is anyone guess. But people need to be aware that fissure eruptions are sometimes long in terms of the length of the fissure. But that phase normally does not last long, as soon the eruption is going to isolate it self into few craters on the fissure. I also recommend that people read Erik Klemetti blog post about El Hierro from yesterday. If you haven’t already done so.

800 Replies to “Short update on El Hierro volcano eruption”

  1. Hi there.
    (silent reader her, very interested in the lot)

    Not too sure about Los Gusmones, but I think they told about Guinez aswell, which is located between Frontera and Las Punstas (toward el tunnel)

  3. El Hierro volcano is a shield volcano. It is going to erupt in episodes. That means that there are going to be quiet times between eruption events. This quiet times can last from few hours and up to days or weeks at the time.

    1. En la Restinga ha surgido una maravillosa fuente submarina. En este momentp se precede a la evacuacion del pueblo. Atentos y saludos

    2. Jón, I do not agree on you on this one. What shield volcano has a slope with 50 degree angle?
      I agree with you that this is a fissure erupten, but mechanics of El Hierro does not for me look like a shield volcano.

  4. ML 3.2

    Region

    ENGLISH CHANNEL

    Date time

    2011-11-05 10:27:23.5 UTC

    Location

    50.28 N ; 0.92 E

    Depth

    2 km

    Distances

    72 km SE Eastbourne (pop 112,906 ; local time 10:27:23.5 2011-11-05)
    41 km NW Dieppe (pop 35,707 ; local time 11:27:23.5 2011-11-05)
    39 km NW Berneval-le-grand (pop 1,089 ; local time 11:27:23.5 2011-11-05)

    Source parameters provided by another agency

      1. Does the tunnel pass by there? Also, if it is at 2km depth, that’s quite shallow isn’t it?

      4. Remember that this quake was 48 times smaller than yesterdays 4.4M.
        Perhaps a few rocks could haven fallen, at worst.

        OT: To celebrate that it is saturday and a party-night Swedish state television is sending 90minute documentary on Crematoriums and the life of the workers at crematoriums. If you ever wonder why we are crazy. I would think that there are about a hundred thousand swedes drinking beer to it… 🙂

      7. No, that would not be it.
        It would be that swedes actually do like slow odd documentaries about weird things.

        And swedish television is non-political by law, and further on, sweden has had a conservative government for 6 years now. Perhaps you should read up on Sweden before talking Philip.

      8. I’m well aware of the law you’re referring to. Perhaps you should be thinking about what they’re actually feeding you with on SVT/SR. In many cases, they’re not objective. No need to play the smart card on your brothers from the same country. We all want a successful and peaceful society.

      9. Philip, if you really want to take this discussion. Click on my name and send a mail to info@
        I think we would bore everyone in here with a discussion about swedish law and journalist practices and politics. I am ready to discuss it in private.
        Yes I took the smart cart, but I did it for a reason, if you wish to discus why lets take it in private. I think you know why.

      10. I’m sorry for making such a stupid line about the socialists. I do believe that SVT/SR are mostly red but I shouldn’t direct my frustration against you.
        Let’s just drop it and do our best to contribute to our wonderful country 🙂

      11. Sorry, should have written *”towards you”. Guess I gotta get my english game together 😀

      12. Hey!I listened to a Happy hour today all about alternative funerals. The best one was the lady and husband who have spent £7000 on a party, the highlight would be to send their ashes up on a big firework rocket 🙂 . I though I could save some money and just get someone to drop my ashes into a Volcano :)…..Nothing like going out with a bang and as cheaply as possible 🙂

      14. We drink so hard that we almost die every saturday perhaps? A borderline death experince every weekend and therefor it was called for such a lovely documentary…a program in touch with our gloomy escapistic weekend behaviour^^

    2. Hmmmm doesn’t show on the British Geological realtime data seismograms from Herstmonceux ( http://www.earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/helicorder/heli_dir_shz/HMNX_SHZ_GB_00.2011110500.gif ) unless it’s the little parp that is probably a 0.2mg in the routine noise. I’d hardly call it a 3.2 – so maybe it’s a false alarm. Theree was a bit more noise in the middle of the night – perhaps a leaf on the railway line in the Channel Tunnel. 🙂 If you learn any more keen to hear!

      3. Clive, the English Channel is of course not the UK English Channel. It is the waters to the north of El Hierro.
        Giggle did one of its normal Hiccups.
        The tunnel is not the Euro-tunnel. It is a small rock tunnel through the escarpment leading down to El Golfo area of El Hierro.

      4. Carl the quake in question was this one,
        2011-11-05 10:27:23.56hr 23min ago 50.28 N 0.92 E 2 3.2 ENGLISH CHANNEL from the EMSC
        located according to them at :-
        Magnitude ML 3.2
        Region ENGLISH CHANNEL
        Date time 2011-11-05 10:27:23.5 UTC
        Location 50.28 N ; 0.92 E
        Depth 2 km
        Distances 72 km SE Eastbourne (pop 112,906 ; local time 10:27:23.5 2011-11-05)
        41 km NW Dieppe (pop 35,707 ; local time 11:27:23.5 2011-11-05)
        39 km NW Berneval-le-grand (pop 1,089 ; local time 11:27:23.5 2011-11-05)
        I don’t think Eastbourne is 72km from El Hierro. Not last time I looked anyway as I live 60 miles West of Eastbourne

      5. Mistranslated false alarm. No earthquake so far as I can see in the English Channel. The last was in October – a 2.2. Unless it was a very, very flat earthquake that does not make the seismograph wiggle! Even the French site says it is not verified my seismological evidence. Oh well.

      6. Oops Carl – my ‘bah humbug’ came at the same time as your comment! I’m sheep-ish…:-)

      9. Magnitude ML 3.2
        Region ENGLISH CHANNEL
        Date time 2011-11-05 10:27:23.5 UTC
        Location 50.28 N ; 0.92 E
        Depth 2 km

      10. Really strange that French webpage, the map seems to have also shown two small quakes close to Dover which most certainly haven’t been. Maybe they also have problems with their seismographs.

  6. Now another theory (not mine, of course): could the two fissures, the Golfto´s one and the Restinga´s one, found at a single point on the island?

    1. They do, and that would be at the magma chamber. Remember that the cental volcano in question is gone in the El Golfo slide, but the chamber and the fissures system is still there.

      2. No, Tanganasoga is not it, the center of El Golfo volcano is out in the bay, right outside of Frontera.

        Tanganasoga is a radial fissure from the old volcano. A remnant.

      5. If you imagine an arrow upwards through the cones, I think it will point at the center of the old volcano in the bay.

      6. Well, Tanganasoga could theoretically erupt since it is a radial fissure of El Golfo center volcano.

        For the rest of you.
        El Golfo was the most recent central volcano, it grew to much and becamce to steep to be able to sustain its own weight, so in the end it slid away out into the English Channel.
        From this we can say a couple of things, 1 is that it is not a shield volcano, shield volcanos does not have 50 degree slopes. Period.
        But, what I am starting to see the El Golfo as the hard center, a central volcano in absentio. But it seems to be operating as Askja in Iceland in some ways. It has fissure swarms, it has radial fissures like a that go on the inverse of the fissure swarm.

        Back to tanganasoga, yes it can erupt, but it is not the most likely place. I would opt for the old central vent erupting next. And that would be about a kilometre out from Frontera.
        But, Bob could be the point of eruption for years also, central fissures can go for years sometimes, and I am starting to think this is likely.
        Because I do think that we are seeing a mini-scale version of Laki here. First the fissure opened up, it then started to suck on the magma-chamber, and the magma chamber started to rip open at the bottom as the dyke under it opened up. So basically we have a chamber open at the bottom to the convective hotspot plume, so I think we will now see Bob or Bob erupting on and off for years, and an eruptive period that will stretch for decades.
        There will not be big eruptions, but the cumulative eruptive volume will be large. The reason for the eruptions not becoming really big is that the eruption will be the same as the hotspots plumes flow upwards, and that doesnt seem to be really enormous, and also, there will be very limited pressure buildup.
        For all I know this could behave as Hawai’i and erupt very calmly for hundreds of years building up a whopping large Bob, that eventually slides down into the ocean as it grows to big for its own weight. And that I think would be the end of the eruption.

      1. I asked you that because the tomography showed that there in the old fissures in the Julan wich go up to Tanganasoga were heat. And some of these fissures are not totally vertical.

      2. Well, if there is heat building up, that could very well be an upcoming eruption. Would be a good place for it really since there is no one livin there. But the houses below would be gone after a while of course. Good though in the sense that it would not cause any fatalities as long as the authority closes off the area and evacuates houses below in case there would be a local small landslide.
        Thanks for the heat info!
        And say thanks to your brother, I guess he was the pilot of the Guardia Civil helicopter that shot the video I just saw on SVT. Sorry, no link to post of it, and even if they had posted it only swedes can see it.

      4. Ok… new hypothesis coming up –

        What if… El Golfo, El Julan etc were once ridges?

        Is this possible? Could it be that they grow so far and then collapse? It was the article on Henry Seamount and fluid dynamics that got me thinking anew. Or is this not a remotely likely scenario?

  7. Tunnel closed again:

    http://www.diariodeavisos.com/islas/el-hierro

    “Se cierra otra vez el túnel de Los Roquillos por posibles desprendimientos
    El túnel se abrió a las 07.30 horas de hoy tras comprobarse que no se habían producido desprendimientos, pero el Pevolca ha decidido volver a cerrarlo hasta nuevo aviso”

    Giggle:
    It closes the tunnel again for possible landslides The Roquille
    The tunnel was opened at 07.30 hours today after finding that there had been landslides, but the Pevolca has decided to close until further notice

    2. Giggle forgot a (not really unimportant) word:

      They had opened it in the morning after finding out that there had been n o landslides. (!)

      1. Yes I saw it – but almost getting used to it by now.

        NEVER trust a giggle translation! It may say the opposite of the original text!

      1. Having looked at the other island’s traces I could have answered that myself, sorry.

      2. Never be sorry 🙂

        “There are no stupid questions, only stupid people not asking them”.
        Albert Einstein

        “All Questions are Stupid”
        Generalissimo Franco

        “Questions are like the flatulence of Goats”
        Il Duce (regurgitated by Berlusconi)

        I am siding with Einstein on this 🙂

  9. It seems noticeable that the gap that used to exist in the N-S side view earthquake records between 17 and 20km is being filled in.

    1. And that is scaring me, because I think that the lower quake group is the formation of a lateral feeder dyke that will enable to various magma-reservoirs unhindered access to copious amounts of magma over time.
      What worries me is that this eruption will be going for years now.
      Remember that the eruption sofar has not caused any over all deflation. And with a deep large feeder dyke the magma would pretty much be limitless over time if it is connected to the convective hotspot plume.
      Yes, I do believe that the convective hotspot plume model is correct, but that it is used in to many places.

    2. At a guess that 2-3km aseismic layer is basalt underplating on the underside of the oceanic crust – as seen in some low-flux hotspot oceanic islands. If the crust dips under the erupted mass of Hierro as it does in Tenerife than its about the right depth. So conceivably it has been a barrier to the magma mass below. On other hand, if that is so, what caused all those EQs from July-Oct? – where dod the magma for that come from, they were much shallower? What mechanism wouls satisfy both sets of EQs????

      1. I guess the first round of quakes was pressue loading as the hotspot plume started to push up new magma to El Hierro, and that some of it went through crack up into the El Golfo magma-reservoir(s).
        But now I think it is opening up the big feeder. That is in a way good I think, that should lower the risk of a big pressure build up, so the risk of an explosice event diminishes, but it also probably heralds a very long eruptive period.

      2. With fresh magma feed at 27.75N it could enter the volume wrecked by the July-Oct swarm and get to 8km fast? Then what?

      3. I have 3 probable scenarios. I will state them in order of what I think is likely.
        1. Bob continous for years. Sofar Bob has grown in importance and girth. So it in a way is logical that Bob will continue for as long as there is magma being pushed through the fissure tube. As time goes by the tube will continue to widen (seems to have started to happen already), and as time goes by Bob(s) will start to surface. Could go on for years.
        2. Golfing Bob, a Bob starts in El Golfo, probably at the old central vent about a km out from La Frontera. Could close down old Bob due to old Bob loosing pressure, or we have two Bobs. If it is alone I think this Bob would due to shortest plumbing be the one that stays for years. I think that a Golfing Bob would be the end of Goldfarter Bob.
        3. Baldrick of Tanganasoga, this would for sure shut down Goldfarter Bob since it would be feeding of the tube of Goldfarter Bob. The pressure would become to low further out on the tube for it to sustain necessary pressure. If Golfing Bob doesn’t emerge we would be stuck with a sub-airial volcano that will go on for years. This is the worst case scenario since this would lead to lava-floods running down to Frontera and other small towns and villages. Pretty much the entire El Golfo area would be a write off.

        As you notice I for the time being believe that this will be a long, steady eruption that will last for a long time due to steady and slow influx of magmas. Over the years all 3 things could happen. First Goldfarter Bob becomes and Island, then Baldrick of Tanganasoga erupts for a time, and then Golfing Bob emerges and runs untill it ends Godabunga only knows when.

        The reason for this is that I think a deep feeder dyke has formed, and that historically El Hierro has had large but long/slow eruptions, like the one that formed El Golfo Volcano.

      4. Love CLS’s scenarios – thanks for your thoughts on this. Clearly not a situation that will resolve quickly

      2. 0,125 would be the specific weight of the material.
        1 litre of water weighs 1kg, so a cubic decimetre (litre) of the floater weighs 0,125kg… That is about what a life-jacket weighs…

      3. Well, presumably it was floating. Makes it about the same density as the bubble wrap it’s standing on.

      4. If you know the size of bubbles on bubble wrap (sorry not got any to hand to check), you can confirm the size of the rock.

        But it has visible gas vesicles in it. Be interested to see the chemical composition of that one.

    2. If it is pumice or on the way to being a pumice, this is not very good:

      “Pumice is a common product of explosive eruptions (plinian and ignimbrite-forming) and commonly forms zones in upper parts of silicic lavas. Pumice has an average porosity of 90%, and initially floats on water.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pumice

      3. Some kind of weird pumice relative.
        But I guess it was a bit smaller than told here.
        I think it should have said 0,5 metre in circumference (around it), and that would put the weight in the 0,7 – 0,8 kg per litre range.

      4. If the wires in the background are normal electical wires, the stone would be roughly the size of my laptop, give or take a bit.

  11. From Fox News – but not sure how accurate it is:

    Spain Evacuates Homes in El Hierro Island Due to Volcanic Activity
    Published November 05, 2011, Associated Press

    MADRID– The regional government of Spain’s Canary Islands has ordered the evacuation of homes and road closures near the southern tip of El Hierro island after two earth tremors and increased offshore volcanic activity caused a buildup of bad-smelling debris floating on the sea.

    Seismic activity began in the area on July 17 and residents have since been rocked by more than 10,000 tremors, while underwater fissures have released an almost continuous flow of sulfurous gases, smoke and hot objects.

    The government said in a statement it has evacuated 11 homes and closed the island’s main road tunnel after a tremor of 3.9 magnitude on Saturday followed one of 4.4 magnitude the previous evening.

    El Hierro has some 11,000 residents and was formed by volcanic activity.”

    http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/11/05/spain-evacuates-homes-in-el-hierro-island-due-to-volcanic-activity/

    1. Since Fox news only publish things that are not true I would say that we can call off the entire eruption, now we know nothing at all is happening 😉

      Actually that is an AP news bulletin, so it is pretty much correct.

      Swedish News Version:
      “Volcanic eruption closes on Island
      The volcanic eruption close to the Canarian island of El Hierro closes on the main land of the Island.
      Vents have formed along an underwater fissure and aerial pictures from the Spanish Geological Institute [Swedish translation of some spanish organisation] shows how hot magma is coming up.
      A list of quakes lately has anounced that the volcano has come back to life.”

      Just translated this so that people could see the difference in style of journalism between countries. Reminds a bit of the IMO bulletins in Iceland.

      1. The imagery was taken by the Guardia Civil, aerial video shots of floaters and a very steamy and bubbly place close to the coast with loads of tephra bubbling up.

      2. El trabajo que está haciendo la Unidad de Helicópteros de la Guardia Civil en el Hierro es magnífica.

  12. Seeing the photo of the Ramon Margalef earlier and the comments about it possibly being in dangerours waters I had a look at the route done today and was surprised to see how close it seems to have gone to the eruption. Picture of route at – route from http://www.localizatodo.com/mapa/

    2. Hi Armand, First an apology from me it was on ER that I saw the picture, though I think that’s the photo the comments were referring to. I’m not suggesting it went through it, just surprised to close it got. Have to ‘disappear’ now as our grandaughter is coming and have to babysit!

  14. I see the Queen Mary 2 is visiting nearby. Perhaps she could be persuaded to do an evacuation in style.

      7. Well, Inge, you know how we northern neighbours are… Naughty 🙂
        I think that is why Germans like to move here so much 🙂
        And of course your deep infatuation with mooses… 😉

      8. Well, Inge, you know how we northern neighbours are… Naughty
        I think that is why Germans like to move here so much
        And of course your deep infatuation with mooses…

      9. I am reminded of one of your famous female ski-shooters* that moved more or less to a moosefarm in my neck of woods.
        Nice woman, but she is to fast for me to catch, and to interested in mooses 🙂

        *Name withheld for privacy reasons.

      10. Better ask the iceberg that sent him to de depth of the ocean .. or ask poor Leonardo di Caprio…

  15. I´ve got an idea. Titanic 2 for Perfidio, Paulino and Pevolca and Britannia for Hierro habitants.

  16. An extreme sensational tour – navigating with a ship over the grey stain – i am sure if we sell it here we will have some clients
    Congratulations for the Margaleff crew : thats by far the closest they ever came to the eruption

    1. I think what they have done the last time they where at port they loaded a new ROV that is heat-shielded.
      Before there was no reason for them to go to close since their equipment couldn’t take it. But if they have a new ROV there would be justification for the risk.

  17. For information, worst case scenario, nobody killed, and this suddenly in a quite heavily populated region:

    http://www.lanzaroteinformation.com/content/volcanoes-eruptions-lanzarote

    The eruptions that started in 1730 lasting six years, covered the most fertile areas of the island, there was no loss of life, but several villages were buried under the flow and hardship followed.

    Father Andrés Lorenzo Curbelo from Yaiza recorded the events of the 1730 eruptions in his diary:

    “On the first day of September, 1730 between nine and ten o’clock at night, the earth suddenly opened near Timanfaya, two miles from Yaiza. An enormous mountain emerged from the ground with flames coming from its summit. It continued burning for 19 days. Some days later, a new abyss developed and an avalanche of lava rushed down over Timanfaya, Rodeo and part of Mancha Blanca. The lava extended over to the northern areas to begin with, running as fast as water, though it soon slowed down and ran like honey.

    On September 7, a great rock burst upwards with a thunderous sound and the pressure of the explosion forced the lava going northwards to change direction, flowing then to the North West and west North West. The lava torrent arrived, instantly destroying Maretas and Santa Catalina in the valley.

    On September 11, the eruption became stronger. From Santa Catalina lava flowed to Mazo, covering the whole area and heading for the sea. It ran in cataracts for six continuous days making a terrible noise. Huge numbers of dead fish floated about on the sea or were thrown on the shore. Then everything quietened, and the eruption appeared to have come to an end.

    But on October 18, three new fissures formed…….

  18. You know what fascinates me most about the whole Hierro Bob story? That we are so many international followers and interested. I regularly look because this community works in such an interesting open way. Great ideas coming from so different ways to think and see things. But if I hadn’t become a reader here, I would have a much lighter interest, looking for news once a day , maybe. El Hierro is small, if authorities work only half way correctly there will be no human casualties. As mentionned before the finally most dangerous situation would come from stuffing panicking people in a tube ins some evacuation attempt. What is economically lost is nothing compared to even the actual flooding in northern Italy.
    Aren’t we blowing that thing up (except for the Spanish among us who of course have a very other perspective) just because Iceland’s volcanoes give us a bit of resting time? Nothing wrong about it, but I just wonder if I’m the only one to see it a little bit like that…
    Again, Spanish mates, I don’t minimize the catastrophic consequences fos the directly concerned. It’s only that there are right now numerous things with much more consequences happening on the globe in matters of natural hazards.

    1. There is an interesting article in the Hierro Daily news about the economic impact in the fishing village of La Restinga, “La Restinga ya no aguanta más”. According to the article the village is dying bit by bit as it suffers through the worst economic catastrophe in its history. It is already so serious that there are some there who no longer have anything to eat. Fernando Guitiérrez, the head of a Fishing Association, is organizing a meeting to explore solutions to deal with the crisis.

      Since this event will probably evolve over a long time to come, it seems that there may be no fishing or tourism in the immediate future of this village.

      Another article on the same page, “Oceana pide un área marina protegida alrededor de El Hierro para acelerar la recuperación”, states that the International organization Oceana has proposed creating a protected marine area around the whole island of El Hierro in order to protect the biodiversity of this island and accelerate its recovery in response to natural catastrophes. I think that this is an important step, but it could impose even more economic hardships on the fishing industry.

      http://www.diarioelhierro.es/

      1. If they survive this. Then the village should not have any problem recovering. As the sea is often better after the eruption is over. Due to how fertile the material that the volcano brings up is.

        But it is going to be a hard time while it lats. There is no doubt about that.

    2. I understand your question well. And I think I feel the same way. Sometimes I also follow Erik’s blog, but I’ve noticed that I have no interest at all volcanoes (and also not to disaster) in the world. I have interested me also for the countries where I have been before. My first volcano on which I stood, were in the Auvergne/France. Maybe there arose my interest to know how they grow. Since I do not like summer heat, more destinations were the Canary Islands (Fuerteventura, Lanzarote, La Gomera, La Palma), Sicily and of course Iceland. Since one can not take an interest in anything around it for volcanoes, if you want to know what created these landscapes . And so I follow this blog for some time now with even more participation, sometimes with less (because the discussions are sometimes too fast for me).
      But the emergence of a volcano (or whatever is happening now) is just very exciting. Sometimes, I then feel guilty, because people live there, where it comes to quite different, as an exciting event. I think it goes so many here.
      I’ve asked myself if this outbreak, as was mentioned here, last for years, how then developed the blog. Well that’s exciting too.

    3. Well, I just think that volcanoes are interesting and here the community is coming up with clever ideas about various developments all the time. I like the hypothesis-suggesting-thinking-thorough-things atmosphere and that I can contribute with ideas of my own now and then (something that in my offline life doesn’t seem to be so supported – say something volcanoes and everyone 1) thinks you are weird and/or 2) doesn’t care).

      I used to follow Erik Klemetti’s blog as well, but since he has switched to the new platform, I find the commenting system a pain in the a** and so I dropped that blog (as I think many others did as well, because the amount of comments on each post has gone down significantly after the move).

      1. Ursula, I agree with you on all counts. 🙂

        I feel like Jón has created a real community here, and I am learning so much!

        I also used to follow Erik’s blog, posted twice I think, but I find the new platform so annoying that I haven’t even registered. I still like to read through it every day or two though as an adjunct to this blog, and I have also added ER to my reading list.

    1. Nah, not since pretty much all electronics nowadays are EMP hardened. You forget that EMP was the big scare of the 80s, so back then they started to harden military and avionics electronic components, and nowadays that hardening has filtered into consumer and internet routing technology. To be honest, we would be radiation poisoned before anything fries a mothern computer. Coms and GPS satellites are ultra-hardened, and also they turn antennas away before it is incoming.
      And anything down on earth is also shielded by the van Allen-belt.
      So, I would like to go public with saying that anything that punched out satellites and a computer, would also kill us off directly.
      Having computers is a moot question if you have been killed allready by a direct plasma hit from the sun.
      Jón, do you really want to be that alarmist without good cause?

      1. I’m not so sure that satellites are quite so well protected. I believe you could lose most of the satellites without any risk to poeple on the surface though I wouldn’t climb any high mountains.

      2. I worked for GD, Raytheon and couple of other satellite companies. They are very hard in their protection and safety protocolls. It was a daily routin to cook up new safety things against exactly this happening.

        What would happen is that they turn away their dishes and close down, so for anything from an hour to a week all coms would be lost depending on size, then the battery operated shielded boot-straper would turn them on again.
        Believe me, it takes a nuke in close vicinity to take them out. Why? They where built to survice a nuclear war, that also actually goes for the civilian satellites since they also where/are built with that possibility in the specs.

      3. While that might be true to some extent in consumer electronics. It is not going to protect the transformers on the 15Kw power lines. Those are going to blow out if a large solar flare hits.

        But we are all going to live just fine. But with no electricity for few weeks.

      4. No on that one to.
        After the north american black out of the over-used power-line all power-grids on the planet started to be rebuilt with exactly this problem vectored in. If that had happened today, the northern american power-grid would have been able to take it.
        The north US-Canadian power grid is still the weakest on the planet.

        Jón, nobody uses 15Kw powertrunks.
        A mainline feeder is 700kV (Volts, now watts) at 1024 Amps or more. The main-stations have automatic blow-out capacitors that will temporarily shut down the system if it happens, and it will automatically turn on again. What happened in the north american system was that it was at the time of impact using it over capacity so that it was on brown-out mode, ie that they delivered less than 115volts to the consumers. It had no room to “manouver”.
        The northern European grids was actually harder hit than their american counterpart, none of them went down.
        In all history of mankind, their has been only one instance of it affecting more than minutely. And that was due to idiotic management, and under-funding.
        Stop believing scare-tale stories of doom on this one.

      5. Is that the euro standard, or the U.S one ?

        I use the NOAA Space Weather scale for this, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

        I also know to never underestimating the Sun. But scaremongering I am not doing.

        Carl, I also must point out that NASA disagrees with you. Something that I knew well over year ago.

        http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2010/26oct_solarshield/

        The problem is also geomagnetic storms that last for a long period of time.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm

        As they make Geomagnetically induced current (from wiki), http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetically_induced_current

        The problem is budget, and the electronic companies have not been spending enough to protect the power grid from this type of event.

        Now. Lets just wait and see what happens with this sun spot. It might not do anything at all during the next 14 or so days until it gets out of view again.

      6. Interesting, the way the mainstream media presents this problem with solar storms I have been worried that we would loose “power” for quite some time.
        Now I dont have to buy all the salt I’ve been planning to buy in order to salt down my fish and moose meat….. he he.
        Keep it comin Carl – u’re good!

      7. NASA and I agree on one thing, that it would be a nuisance. And we also agree on old satellites close to expiration date would go out.
        But, in part they do scaremonger, but the sad part is that I understand why. They have gotten most of their funding cut and they are trying any means to get money. It is sad in more ways than one. 🙁

    2. I dread this happening. Very selfish I know but since the broadcast TV went digital on the island the only way we can get TV is via the satellite dish. If we get a really large flare the Astra satellites may get cooked and we don’t have TV for years 🙁

      1. Nope, they Astra is ultra-hardened, it also has programing that turns the antennas away, and it also would shut down with an automatic shielded booting part, that would turn it on automatically after the pre-programed time.
        This small issue has been known for years and is vectored in when it was constructed. How do I know this? I worked with it.

        To take out a satellite you need to hit it before it had instigated the safety protocoll. After that you need to get close with a nuke.

      2. Hope you’re right. I used to be in a team making those ultra hardened semiconductors. I found the emp specs we were given to work with positively depressing when I found out they were associated with the survival time of the pilot 🙁

      3. Yes it is depressing, but remember that back then we where talking about massive numbers of EMP-specialized nukes going off…
        We where mad back then… 🙁

    3. So what will this mean with reagrds to the Aurora?? Is this powerful enough to allow the aurora to be seen over southern England??

      So far i can’t find any informatioon yet regarding this on the normal aurora forcast site’s i visit.

    5. Active Regions, sun spots, solar flares, filament eruptions, coronal loops, coronal mass ejections, etc are all interesting to study – and in many instances deliver beautiful images – in their own right whether or not they create anything problematic for humans.
      There’s no better place to study plasma and magnetic fields and get your fluid dynamics brushed up.

      There already was an class flare X1.9 and a CME that went with it on November 4, however the fast CME plasma cloud (~1100km/s) was not Earth directed, so no problems there.
      It was directed towards Mercury and Venus. Mercury does not have a planetary geomagnetic field an they expect the plasma cloud to pick up some material from the planet and place it into the orbit.

    7. I can vouch personally that some solar flares do effect hand held radios, especially narrow band. Since we have many “dead areas” regarding cellular service in our county, mobile phones are unusable in some critical situations for emergency and first responders – hence the need to be aware of any potential radio blackouts (such as the r3 level one confirmed by NASA after the X1.9 flare from sunspot 1339) or other potential geomagnetic effects. For those of us who depend on low-tech equipment to get our jobs done, yes, solar flares can affect our equipment. Likewise, effects of solar activity on amateur radios is well documented and even celebrated in some circles, allowing “ham” radio operators to make contacts over even greater distances than attainable under “normal” conditions. I myself have not yet attempted to do so yet as a ham – I am still new at it – but now may be the perfect time to try!

      (For those who wish to know more about how solar weather can effect radio equipment, or to learn more about solar science in general, please visit solarham.com… It explains much!)

  20. @All:
    You should go and read the article of Raymond Matabosch. It is quite good, and close to what I believe to. Just don’t mind the last sentence, I think something became wonky in the “traducir” there 🙂

    @Armand:
    I think there would be quite few in here that would be really interested in going to close to the El Hierro eruption. I think it would be me, Irpsit (The Vacationist), and perhaps some others, but I guess most would happily be sitting at home watching it.
    I would have gone if I hadn’t had such a buzy schedule right now.

      1. Not that it’s so particular per se (see post above), but you’re sure there is something to see and risks can be “calculated” compared to other hazard situations.

    2. well – I’m ready, tell me when you go, I’ll join u, and bring some aquavit just in case, make sure u bring some surstrømming:)

      1. seriously – I’ll go to the Canaries for a “peek”, but since I know very little about volcano I’d like to go with someone that could “educate me a bit” in this field.

      2. Come to the Búrfell BBQ instead. I am trying to convince a certain volcanologist at the IMO to come and give a lecture to us. Lecture would then be before we get aquavited untill oblivion. If you want to I could bring a can of surströmming to the party, but I think you and me would have to eat it downwind.

    3. In the Matabosch article, here is the last line in French: En toute logique, les autorités devraient prendre toutes les précautions qui s’imposent et décréter l’évacuation , au moins, de la Restinga si ce n’est celle de toute le zone située au-dessous d’une ligne Frontera-El Pinar.

      A clearer (word for word) translation would be: In all logic, the authorities should take all the precautions that are called for and declare the evacuation of at least La Restinga if it [presumably the evacuation] is not that of all the zone situated below a line Frontera-El Pinar.

      Now I’ve even confused myself. 🙂

      1. I understand it in this sense:
        In all logic, the authorities should take all the precautions that are called for and declare the evacuation of at least La Restinga if not of the entire zone situated below a line Frontera-El Pinar.

  21. I don’t have time to look things up correctly. Just for me to put this in a context, can you quickly give something like a probability of occurrence for such a big flare (1/x in a year)?

    3. There is a difference between a solar (radiation) storm, geomagnetic storms and radio blackouts. Only the last one is associated with the x-ray flux of the flare.
      A solar radiation storm is caused by fast moving protons coming from the sun, which can originate from a coronal mass ejection or a coronal hole.
      A geomagnetic storm is caused by interaction of the CME plasma cloud with the Earth’s magnetic field.
      Details are here:
      http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

  22. Unless something major happens in El Hierro volcano. I am going to try and take this weekend off and do little writing as possible. I need to get some rest on that field once in a while.

  23. Interesting side discussion on Solar activity. Carl, do you truly believe that a geomagnetic storm the size of one described in the 1859 Carrington Event would not have much of an impact on us today? Are you speaking purely from the technologies in place in more modern countries or throughout the world?

    1. Oddly enough many third world countries would be even better off due to their systems being in large parts more modern.
      As an example, in Sweden we believe we have the most modern and up to date cell phone systems. We do not. I bought a phone in Kenya a while ago, and used it there for a week, when I came back to Sweden I noticed that it used a more updated protocoll that the swedish networks couldn’t understand.

      A Carrington event would affect us on the short-term. But considerably less than what the bad science shows would like us to believe. On a brutal note, it would be a moment where candles would be handy, I would take my sleeping bag and go out and watch the show, and still I would feel safe in the knowledge that I would be able to make coffee in the morning in the electric way 😉

      2. I recommend avoiding to fill one’s brain with info that can be easily found in the web… 🙂
        But sure good to always have a lot of things handy…

      3. Nope they don’t.
        They use a version of 3G and 4G that is integrated differently than in Sweden.
        For instance, they had high speed 3G data transfer before we did. I had a 12MB dongle in Kenya and a 4,7MB in Sweden back in the days before 4G.
        For various private reasons I lived on and off there for years. See the story about fast running beautifull woman in the last blog-post.
        I am very familiar with their 3G net therefore.

  24. About solar-flares and what it would do to us.

    I will here write a worst case scenario based on my former work at General Dynamics, Raytheon, ABB and Vattenfall Power Company.

    If a very large solar-flare hit earth that is below the treshold of mass-extinction (to small to go directly through the van Allen-belt) we would be affected like this:
    TV, Internet, GPS, and cell phone services would in some places go down.
    The downtown would be anything between 1 hour to 1 week. All satellites in current operation would receive a signal from the control centers as a short code with predicted duration time. The satellites would turn their antennas away, and then promptly shut down for the predicted time. About 10 percent of the satellites would not turn back on since they are old and close to failure anyhow. This would not affect us much. GPS system would get a bit less accurate. Most TV satellites would still be functional, at worst you would need a new satellite box for another network. Almost all other satellite coms would be operational. The event would only be a nuisance on the personal plane, for instance being without coms for the duration, and also a bit of cost for those that need to switch supplier of bad TV programs purporting horror-storries of doom, or getting new sat-phone providers.
    Cell phones would be up and running without a glitch quickly. Same goes for internet. Most parts of the internt would work during the event since the long cables are optic, and it is only metallic cables that can get affected. The cables in the internet is shielded too, so they would not get saturated with EMP.
    Power-grid: If it happens during the winter on a very cold day when the grid is used to, or above, capacity the north US-Canadian grid could go down. Downtime would not be for more than a week in Urban areas. The rest of the planet has a much higher redundancy (that goes for rural Russia even) and would at worst be suffering an hour to eight hours of blackout. But that is rather unlikely. Only countries under the van Allen-belt northern or southern opening would be affected.
    Airplanes travelling across the pole could theoretically be affected with avionics loss, but almost all of them would still be able to land, and as far as I know they would be warned and start to fly for nearest airport. Tor Hogne knows that better then me.

    That is it. The rest is just hype from bad so called “scientific” television programming. Remember, the world has only once suffered from a problem caused by a solar-flare, and it hit at the worst possibe time and it only affected the shitiest part of the worlds powergrid. (The US powergrid is really really bad for so many reasons, but that is another story).

    Now, back to the volcanos.

    1. Concur up to a point. The stock of replacement equipment blown in a cascade failure is finite and held to a minimum due to MBA mentality of JIT inventory management. Thus, while a best case scenario of up within days or weeks is possible, in reality, replacement equipment will be the rate limiting factor in restoration to pre-flare normalcy.

    2. Probably more relevant are events ON the planet. For example, the floods in Thailand have taken out many IT manufacturing plants there – try buying a hard drive in the UK just now – nigh on impossible. Those in the market have nearly doubled in price. Solar flares just produce a nice show in the northern sky.

  25. Reposted from above:

    Ok… new hypothesis coming up –

    What if… El Golfo, El Julan etc were once ridges?

    Is this possible? Could it be that they grow so far and then collapse? It was the article on Henry Seamount and fluid dynamics that got me thinking anew. Or is this not a remotely likely scenario?

      2. Yes, it would appear so, but also did it project further out as a headland? Like Restinga now? The chunks that have gone in the past in the collapses may have been projecting further out than what is left. Did it grow first on the rift? Or was what was already uplifted challenged by outcrops grown in the rifting? Did lava extrude and then retreat back through lava tubes? What is the relationship with water, gushing as geysers as with the eruptions of the new Bobs?

        More questions, and still so much to learn.

  26. Search “Expando-Earth theory” due to solar activity…..earth’s plasma core .
    Sun’s light spectrum has changed too….shifting from yellow-to-white-to-light blue.
    Earth core heating up like butter in a microwave.
    A solid core theory doesn’t produce magnetic shield……plasma cores produce magnetic shields…..like the sun.
    a few things to ponder….
    keep an eye on asteroid yu55 coming tues/wednesday……and AR1339 activity….
    space quakes….magnetic shield bands snapping
    crazy fun

    1. This makes no sense. Anyway – if the earth’s core were made of plasma – we’d all promptly collapse into it! Might be able to replace it with a new neon tube from Homebase…. 🙂

    3. Maybe you can relativize / precise your thoughts. Like that I feel this strange lust to tar and feather you…

    4. P-Waves – Pressure waves (compressive waves)
      S-Waves… (transverse waves due the the motion) a known phenomena of earthquakes.

      Both are well known from their appearing in pretty much any seismogram. Both have their own characteristics as they pass through the earth. S-Waves can not pass directly through a liquid. The velocity of propagation drops to zero. In normal (non liquid) rock, each has their own speed.

      Due to the pattern that can be observed in seismic stations throughout the world, we know that the inner core of the Earth is solid. The speed that the waves traveling through it match an alloy of Nickel and Iron.

      And now some one is going actually have the temerity to claim that it’s a gas-plasma?

      Sorry for leaving the conversation, I have to go out back and laugh until I puke.

      1. Have a celebratory drink on the fact that it is a moroon born every minute instead. I did that.
        Now I think it is time to get dressed before my party-guests arrive. Have 10 gallons of white russian to mix…. 🙂
        Have a nice saturday Lurking!

  27. Búrfell BBQ:

    To talk about something more fun! 🙂
    I think we should hold the event in mid-July. The reasons for this is that I think that time would be where most people could attend, and still have a shot at having fair weather. Northern Europe is on vacation by then, and those from the southern Europe could perhaps have vacation then. The US has had their 4th of July, so that would also not be an issue.

    I hope that one or more of the Icelander Crowd could help a bit with local support like where to find beer, coal and BBQ equipment, and perhaps assist with driving it up to Búrfell.
    I am trying now to get one of the volcanologists at IMO or the Reykjavik University to come and give a talk on Icelandic volcanos. If there is any cost for this I will cover it. But nothing is finalized yet on that matter.
    Depending on the number of people attending we would perhaps need to hire a tourbus or something to cart us up there.
    I seriously suggest bringing sleeping bags and camping tents, and really warm clothes, we all know how the weather can be.
    I suggest July 14 for the event.
    I will set up an email for this in a while.

    Be there or be square!
    The rest can watch on the Búrfell cam.

      2. bring more than one can of “the rotten fish”. It will be my first surstrømming, and have a feeling I will like it, so …

      3. … and have Jon bring some “sheep nuts”, think I tasted that once in prehistoric times – Icelandic speciality I think…

      4. I will bring a few cans.
        And I think it was Chris that had access to the sheeps. So I think he is more likely to be able to suply the “mountain oysters”. I have a wicked spanish (Basque) recipée for those.
        I hope that Jón will be attending as the main attraction.

    2. Hey guys,

      I say Yes, let’s go for it!

      I would be very glad to join in the event of this blog getting together.

      Close to Burfell, in Hella, one can buy beer, coal and BBQ stuff. I hope to buy a car before the summertime, so if I have a car by then I can drive people there. I also know nice hot pools close by, nice forests nearby, Hekla just a couple of kms in front of Burfell and the must-see mountains of Landmannalaugar one hour away.

      Bringing a warm sleeping bag and tent is an excellent idea, as camping in summertime is popular here. Warm and rainproof clothes are also a must.

      1. Followed by a ‘volcano bash’ guided by some well informed person/s? Ring road and across t’ middle !! Anything to miss the olympics!!

      2. Hallo Irpsit!

        Nice you are back, haven’t seen your comments for a long time and missed them. Sounds great there with hot pools and forests (those are the forests where you cannot get lost, if I remember well). Thanks for good advice on equipment.

        I’m sure Carl will organize the volcano party of the century.

      3. Yeah Irpsit is back. I’ve missed you!
        Cheers and looking forward to seeing you at the BBQ 🙂
        If we are lucky we will have a certain volcanologist giving a small talk a the bash.

    3. If my working contract is prolonged, I think I could fly over. but I don’t know yet. Ironically I’m working for the german recruitment agency…

  28. I’m curious if anyone has a link to the seismograms of a currently erupting volcano like Etna or Hawaii’s siesmograms. I’d like to compare their signatures to the one we are seeing of little bob’s. Do they pulse like bob? are they as strong as bob? do they vary as much as bob’s?

  29. ….and back to Iceland. What happened to the fracking at Hengill – has this all finished now – haven’t seen much activity lately.

    1. There is a moratorium on the fracking and on high pressure pumping. They are currently storing the process water while evaluating things. They will start to pump down process water shortly, but I think anything else is out of question for quite some time.
      Last I head they where thinking about moving the shebang down to the Svartsengi area instead. Which makes sense, better to experiment further away from large population centers and away from the tripple-junction.

      1. When you talk about moving the “shebang” to Svartsengi, what exactly is it they are moving? They will be moving closer to people (20.000 live in that area)…wonder what the people in Grindavik/Keflavik feel about this….

      2. As far as I know they are moving it away from the 100K people at Reykjavik to the IDDP3 position.
        It is a safer spot than Hengill for more reasons thatn that. Hengill is a tripple junction rifting volcano. Except for maybe Bardarbunga/Grimsvötn, Hengill is the potentially most dangerous volcano on Iceland due to this tri-rift junction.
        Svartsengi volcanic system is a normal rift volcano that is showing far less signs of impending eruption than Hengill. And even if Svartsengi erupts it will be a small “tourist volcano”. Not a behemoth like Hengill.

        Seriously, if Hengill erupts mid-sized to large we are talking about 5km^3 of lava or more. That translates into ecacuation of the entire populated part of Iceland.
        Svartsengi would be about 0,1 Km^3 if it erupted.

        I will make it simple:
        Hengill = Godzilla
        Svartsengi = Pet Lizzard

        Hope you understand why they should/are moving it?

        What I am talking about moving?
        The Borehole fracking with CO2 laddened water. Extraction of magma-chamber direct hydrothermal energy. The things you do not want to do to a behemoth volcano in the unlikely event that you set off an eruption.

      3. Ok, thanks for the explanation. I know Svartsengi isn’t showing signs of eruption and probably won’t erupt. If it does my other half will be out of a job…the powerplant won’t survive an eruption. The Blue Lagoon will vanish and tourist will have to go to the swimming pool…but like you said a Pet Lizzard is better than Godzilla 🙂

      4. This is an excellent decision and I am very glad if they really move the experiment from Hengill to Reykjanes.

        Hengill is a dangerous volcano and many people were getting worried with the earthquakes caused (and apparently also new hot springs).

        Reykjanes is a safe place. Worse case scenario we would have a small lava eruption just close to the airport, and only damage would be to the blue lagoon area. It’s a very good decision they made. I am very glad they changed the site of the experiment.

        I passed by Hengill today and there is much less steam coming out from their drillhole. A sign that things are coming to low levels again.

    2. I just wrote this : Update 05/11 – 18:10 UTC :
      We just got a call from an excited Joke Volta that a new powerful Jacuzzi (vent) can be seen from the La Restinga El Pinar road. She is currently making pictures from it.

      1. Ahhh… something to break the monotony of my coffee.

        (not complaining… coffee is supposed to be like that until your brain boots up)

  31. Sigh! Oh I would dearly love to join the party. But I am afraid I will be watching from home 🙁
    On a happier note I am ready for the solar flares, geomagnetic storms etc. Candles and larder stocked. Alternative heating and cooking arrangements in place. As for loss of TV and cell phones ..I managed to live without them and I have knitting and painting and gardening to keep me entertained.:) …BUT… Oh to loose sight of this blog…that is a catastrophe!

  32. Update 05/11 – 18:10 UTC :
    We just got a call from an excited Joke Volta that a new powerful Jacuzzi (vent) can be seen from the La Restinga El Pinar road. She is curently making pictures from it.

    1. Cant wait to see those.
      Was there something mentioned earlier about smelly smokey bits washing up on the beach too?

  33. Eee, don’t ya miss t’ laptop – ruddy battery sent all its volts out at once ‘n’ cooked dunno what!! Now got 2 weeks to catch up.
    Nice piccies of Vindganguribaði Bob
    Whats happened to the Reykjavic wreckers, all seems too quiet and is Carl planning a naturistic frolic on Burfell (or is this some Viking naked sheep shearing or volcano charming ceremony)??!!
    Now for a LOOOONNNNGGGG read………………………

    1. Yepp, the Búrfell BBQ will be on saturday the 14th of July.
      But, as long as my bet hasn’t fallen out I will be wearing clothes, I am still debating frying my hat though, the suspense…

      2. I’ll be there!

        Remind me of the bet – no clothes and a cooked hat sounds (AHEM) interesting to say the least!

      3. for the record – Carl will have to perform whatever “nakedness is necessarry” – I’ll eat anything that is served; rotten swedish fish, “sheep nuts”, “rotten norwegian Charr” or what ever shows up on my plate – yyiihaaaa!
        Hope it’s not a HD camera they have up there in the mountains of Iceland….

      1. Yeh – can see a few there – but what a price ! – was paying half that a couple of weeks ago.

    2. “…Also closed and the Lizard Ecomuseum…”

      Err… if those are the same species of lizards I saw chasing the cat I don’t think they need a measures. It was a late watch in Curacau and I saw a cat chase a rat into a bush, the cat came springing back out almost instantaneously… lizard hot on it’s arse.

      Dunno if it’s predator-prey relationship, but in all likely-hood, the cat and rat combo spooked the lizard and it charged.

  41. a ver si saca la cabeza el agua de una vez el “pesao” ese, asi por lo menos encontraremos a San Borondon de una vez…

      1. es verdad, poco a poco y con calma, como se hacen las coas aqui en canarias… no voy a ser yo quien le meta prisa

    1. somewhere safer obviously.
      Oh I think the reCaptcha is a bit harsh! tinymen Greek haha :0)

    2. No se porque tengo el presentimiento de que va a pasar algo muy gordo. Sismos y Tremores han hecho Stop hace una hora…….esto no me gusta nada, no creo que solo sea agua tranquila en maravillosa fuente…..

    1. The video is stunning… it truly is exciting, in a terrifying way. Is Joke staying or will she evacuate? I hope for her sake she is careful!!

      2. That cinder cone looks more impressive than I thought. On Google earth it does not look much at all.

        Maybe we get the Surtsey stile tomorrow, we are getting closer.

  47. Assumption. My family lived in Frontera.

    I would have sent the wife and kids somewhere else around 4 days ago with signs of trouble to the North and South of the island at that time.

    Today I’m off East together with the pets.

    I have now realised that the whole middle of the island is sitting on a tub of liquid magma that is sitting at a steep NS angle the magma being closer to the surface to the South as against 20km deep to the North. Every day the quakes are stronger and the depth less. Clearly making the middle of El Hierro less stable day by day.

    In time the whole middle of the island will slide North via gravity.

    I’d evacuate everyone in the danger zone now.

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