Posted on by Jón Frímann

Sharp increase in eruption activity from El Hierro volcano

This is a short update on El Hierro volcano.

There has been a increase in harmonic tremor activity from El Hierro volcano. This suggest that new vent or vents might be opening up in El Hierro volcano. But this type of eruption pattern is to be expected from a fissure eruption. Like the one that is currently taking place in El Hierro volcano.


The harmonic tremor jump in El Hierro volcano at 16:06 UTC. Copyright of this picture belongs to IGN (Instituto Geográfico Nacional).

There are also some explosions that can be seen on this tremor chart. But they form spikes that can be spotted if looked closely. Is is now also possible to monitor the eruption via web cam located on El Hierro Island. That web cam can be found here.

450 Replies to “Sharp increase in eruption activity from El Hierro volcano”

  1. Please everyone.
    Jon’s setup a blog we all enjoy
    Users like Carl are great contributors and would like many be missed.
    I think small talk and banter does not hurt.
    We must be careful not to overstep the mark, If i talked about any nationality in a derogatary way i could find the hand of the law on me. Its illegal and can be classed as racism, bullying or harrassment so be careful.
    Plus its written down so proven.
    Its a fine line between a joke and the above, plus what might be funny to one can be hurtful to another.
    We need to encourage difference and embrace different ideas from everyone.
    Obviously this has contributed to some heated moments on here.
    Im giving this as someone who works in diversity and equality issues, and from a Welsh background.
    Lets get this blog back to the happy place it was and keep the heat interest in volcanoes again.
    I hope i have not upset anyone, i have just said things that are true and hope it helps minimise these issues. lets argue about scientific things again
    You can of course tell me to butt out.

    1. Point taken pyrotech, it was a silly thing to say in the heat of the moment. I just have seen too many tragedies caused by foolish sailors. I also should perhaps have mentioned my own nationality, if anyone was offended I ask their forgiveness, it wasn’t seriously meant as a slur on my own fellow nationals.

      1. Im not Offended, im Welsh, Englands our biggest sporting rivals. But possibly someone was. Just trying to help people get on better here, so was suggesting we just try to avoid it happening in future. Certainly no need to apologise to me. Its just one of those things that happens.
        Think we should all have a reunion once a year ” A Jons Blog reunion”. Could hold it in a big hotel in iceland and bit of luck we all see an eruption live then when there.

      1. Josh… the “Grammar, Political Correctness and of course The anything dodgy” Police are always at your doorstep… Much like the Heirro’s, regard manifestation of Gaia. That’s how we “humans” moderate ourselves…. “Bob” has hiccups and the whole politrix spectrum convulses?

  2. Like I said before, I don’t need this shit. Until the whiney arsed S’bags get off thei high horse, I’m not plotting crap. There are a couple of other plot makers here that do it quite well.

    Until then cya. Lurk mode on.

      1. Its not you, and not anyone specifically… sort of.

        /rant mode on directed at no one in particular… sort of.

        Here is a clue. If something in an a post doesn’t interest you… DON’T READ IT It’s called time management

        I can blow through a 500 page .pdf in an evening, looking for key words and focusing specifically on items that I’m looking for. If the author is drifting off into cations messing up a reaction and all I am interested in is H2O bias of a solublity curve, I’m not gonna waste my time reading about the cations unless they have something to do with the curve and how it comes about.

        No matter how hard you try, YOU WILL NEVER, EVER, BE ABLE TO READ THE INTERNET. There are millions of people stating millions of ideas. And all you have is one lifetime to deal with it. So, rather than pissing people off with your incessant carping… get a life, learn time management and quit bitching at people because they do what people naturally do… talk.

        Think about it… “A squeaky wheel gets the grease.” If you are continually harping about what you concider to be OT stuff, you are gonna force Jon to address the issue.

        Personally, I think he’s doing a pretty damned good job

        It would a flipping shame to nudge him into taking draconian measures that would invoke a hostile forum environment. Right now you have the free exchange of ideas, nuances of cultures, scientific and sociological interactions.

        Ruin that I personally hope you burn in hell… or whatever “bad place” realm that your culture subscribes to.

        /rant mode off.

        @KarenZ, you are one of the ones I was referring to about “other plot makers”… you do good work!

        @Jon, I got that off my chest. It pisses me off to no end to step in here and see shit being slung all over the place. All I wanted to get was an update on the activity at El Hierro, sheep or other wise.

        @All, denigrate a person for that person’s stupidity, I have no problem with it. Denigrate a culture, then you are the idiot. All cultures have stupid people. I ought to know, I live in the part of Florida known as “Lower Alabama.”

      2. Nice response Lurking and point taken. Although I sometimes get into therapy for scared, worried, fearfreaking folks… Like you gotta crack shells to get to nuts. Truth is it takes all and unfortunately that is what the internet is?

      3. You know… I wasn’t kidding about the idiocy around here. About two years ago in South Florida, two people were arrested for holding up a home owner and knife and gun point.

        They only stole one thing… an eggbeater.

        (Image provided so that the term eggbeater is not lost in translation)

        http://i40.tinypic.com/wv77o2.jpg

      5. I agree with you, of course all cultures have very nice people and not so nice ones, too.

        And I also don’t understand why people can’t just pick out the information they are after. They can do sth like that in supermarkets why not in texts and blogs? 🙂

    2. Lurking your another contributor who’s knowledge we rely on.
      If its my post you do not like then i will explain it here.
      I am trying to stop the arguments by seeing a bit of both sides, like i said banter is great, but if someone really is offended then perhaps we need to be careful.
      Its not aimed at anyone, but i read thru the posts and tried to understand it.

      Im certaintly not Mr Clean living, but tried to mediate to help situation.
      People can tellme if not envolved to keep my nose out , which if said i will.
      Anyway mr Lurking we have katla giving possible mini swarms, Hekla brewing to overflow and Hierro keeping us guessing. So we need yours Carls and Jons (other too) charts and comments.

      1. And I well and truly second that pyrotech. I among many others would seriously miss lurkings contributions to this blog and as Jon wishes to know the problem i am sure he would also. I think now is the time to sleep well and try for a better atmosphere tomorrow.

    3. Lurking, we would miss the 3D plots that you do so well. You must have a great program or be really patient.

      But I want to know is it safe to say that I saw some real sheep this weekend, albeit English ones nowhere near any active volcanoes (unless some very extinct ones decide to join in the party). I am a Londoner and do not get to see real livestock often. A rest from plotting EQs was good.

      Unfortunately I can’s say the same about my updated plots.

      2. Sorry Lurking. I meant that I would miss your 4D plots but messed up the reply. It is getting late again.

  5. Well, lets all hope for better weather both “here and there”, this has been such a nice blog, we need that good feeling back!

  6. About katla. I’ve seen there is not much swarms, but loads of quakes.. What does that mean for an upcoming eruption? Did you see this on the previous 2 eruptions the last years, and when in the run-up did this come in that matter?

    1. Well Katla has been rolling in her sleep on and off since the July jökullhlaup. What we are currently seeing indicates that most probably she isn’t yet done, there is still a lot of pressure down there. If, how, and when that pressure is relieved, is anyones guess.

      From my perspective this can go on for some time, with both quiet periods and more active periods, but in order to get me ‘worried’, she’ll need to bring more. Continuous swarms of earthquakes growing in number, magnitude and depth are essential. Most of the quakes we are currently seeing are ‘incidental’ as they do not set off a real swarm and practically stand on their own.
      We’ll have to be patient, and get used to these almost ‘usual’ magnitude 3 earthquakes. She’ll go when she’s ready, and no earlier.

  7. Oh well – I can see the atmosphere has gone from this blog now – just caught up on today’s blog and the OT police are on patrol. Give them a peaked cap somone ! I’ll miss the banter and the great range of in-depth analysis provided by some regular contributors, who seem conspicuous by their absence now. A shame it’s come to this, I really enjoyed it but I can get most of the info posted here, elsewhere – except those great 4D plots but I’m sure they will show up somewhere else. My OT over – good luck to all.

  8. For everyone to know. This did also happen earlier this year. When something happened and a lot of people got angry. I did cut that one short by simply closing the blog post for future comments. That also gave people time to cool off.

    I am not going to do that now. You know why. Because this annoying fighting is just going to start again after three to six months when someone gets annoyed and just looses it.

    This is now blog (and forums) die. People cannot deal with changes, different opinion or whatever. As it is I am a open minded person, so I allow a lot of stuff in the comments here. As it gives it the human touch to it and feeling. A dry blog is a boring blog. But this has to be in a balance with the primary focus of this blog. Volcanoes and earthquakes (Iceland, Canary Islands and Spain now).

    During this weekend this balance was overstepped when I was away. When I mean over stepped. It was so far from the line it was under the horizon in my view. This brings unhappy readers how are trying to learn and read the comments for more information (that is what they are for, as things often change fast in volcanoes and in earthquake swarms). But what the other readers got where huge amount of off-topic comments. Not just one page. But up to close to three pages of off-topic comments about whatever. I do not want that. I do not need that. It kills this blog and it kills it fast. Now, in order to allow the people to continue to chat about there summer vacations and whatever I decided a while ago that a forum would be needed. That is the right choose in my opinion.

    On the forum. I am not forcing anyone to go there. If people want to go there, they do. If they do not want to, they don’t. It is simple, as I like to keep most things on the top layer.

    This is my view on this. I also ask you to stop this. As it is killing this blog really fast. If you don’t agree with me, then just fine. The world is a big place for all of us. You know what I am doing, and you know what I stand for and nobody is forcing you to be here if you do not agree with my vision of this blog that I did start over a year ago.

    This blog in most chance is going to continue to grow. As I am getting better at blogging about volcanoes and earthquakes. This also teaches me about volcanoes, information gathering and so on.

    Now please move on. There is nothing else to do.

    Thanks all for reading this.

    1. Thank you Jon.

      I welcome the opportunity to learn about volcanoes and earthquakes. As a relatively new visitor, I have been impressed with the way you have run the blog.

    2. Hah, you should make a blogpost in which we’re able to discuss the blog! Nah, just kidding. My view is that not offtopic posts, but the amount of users are responsible for the cluttering. When I started posting on this blog, at the beginning of 2010, I recognized every single person who was newly registered. Today new people come in hurdes, which is not a bad thing at all, but some people might lose their overview of the blog. It also get’s a little less personal, which used to be the atmosphere here. Still, it’s not a bad thing at all that more people come here, I’d rather say it’s good that people interest in science.

      However, I understand that Carl, Lurking and some others including myself sometimes, prefer the cosy personal atmosphere that used to be here. Personally I do not think that by that I have the right to claim that this blog has to go back to a small cosy blog. I’d rather bow to the developments and accept the fact that this place has developed in something which attracts me, personally, less. That might result in less, or no posts at all, from my side, but that leaves space for new people to free their thoughts.

      2. Anytime! Where can I reach you?

        I find it refreshing too, but at some point I struggle too much with figuring out who’s participating in a discussion, and who’s not. However that might be because I’m not that active as you or Lurking.

    3. Is it ok to say things like goodnite? can we mention the sheep? I drifted over to Eriks and it was horribly boring… Not sure what is ok to say now…

      1. The sheep have all been collected for the winter. But they are continuing to enjoy the outdoors in the good warm weather now in Iceland. They are just on the farms, not in the mountains as in the summer.

        Just so you know.

      2. Goodnight Renee. Sheep tight. Maybe we’ll wake up tomorrow and it’ll all have been a bad dream 🙂

      3. Well just as I was thinking of sleeping Katla goes and rattles of another quake to keep me awake for another 30 mins. And if I wish to say goodnight I will. jon can always delete it if necesary. 😉

    4. Just my two-penn’orth for what it’s worth – this blog can take all different points of view, but what it can’t take is direct criticism of any other poster or what they say. What has been so good here has been the shared feelings of learning and caring about volcanoes, concern for people potentially affected and a genuine affection for you, Jon, and for the talented and amateur contributors.

      Yesterday morning we were all feeling happy and then one person upset another and another came in and upset another, and it spoiled things for everyone. The criticisms of individuals were the OTs that needed nipping in the bud.

      It is impossible for me to say this, though, without doing what I’m saying we shouldn’t do… So, hush my mouth now, Katla may be creeping up on us when we’re not looking.

      Best wishes all

    5. Here is my read on this folks and its really nothing more than civility. Telling someone to get off the blog is not a bloggers job, its the blog owners. Snarky little personal comments, jabs in an uncivil manner have been occurring and frankly I was wondering if a few here were smoking a little MJ during the comments. Where some of these comments came from were out of this world.

      Wouldnt have had that if Katla or Bob Maximus was kickin’ butt.

      Lurk and I are from the South, and not of France. We are taught down here with our guns and religion from birth, to respect people. You take a jab at someone or someone they know you are going to first get a not so kind response and then when you do it again, a Southerner will take your head off and that starts at the knees.

      I have sat back and listened and seen a lot of crap that I sure wouldnt have taken it if it had been directed at me.

      How did we get here? Because a lot of it was somewhat OT, and a lot of it OT and then finally we are listening to a lot of stuff about people that we really dont give a crap about.

      As a result Jon has seen fit to create the forum. Okay, its his ballgame and he has turned this into a nice little spot for some great minds to swim in the same swimming pool. The forum is less restrictive and I think thats the place for running commentaries that dont have a thing to do with what the blog is about.

      The ubiquitous and ominpresent Lurk has generated some stuff that is absolutely amazing and without your knowledge he has been forwarding it on to Spain to individuals who will remain nameless. I can also tell that its been seen in some serious emergency response circles here in the US. Normally they would be paying for his stuff. Its acknowledged that some of his stuff could be wrong, but he is being judged more right than you will ever know by a lot of keen brains in the biz.

      The info that we produce here is too like a great brain dissecting a problem and coming up with answers. You watch a problem, you hover over it, you smell it, taste it and you might see something that the big boys who are hounded and bounded by politics either cant say or even if they do see it they cant say. WE say it for them and once we mainstream it, they can say it and folks that saves people from death. Yes, without a doubt if we can see something happening and put it out before the politicians do the number of people that will make it will go up, not down. Indeed, even Jonny Fri has a following on that island at AVCAN and Aspergers or not, he knows his shit and that might be BECAUSE of the Aspergers. He has a keen ability to focus on a single issue and develop a finding.

      All this said I think that everyone should just simmer down and first find the civility that was lost. Keep your comments to a paragraph or less and certainly not about things happening where you are unless your butt is on top of a mountain in the Congo, Katla or El Hierro/Pu O. If you have or see something that might become life threatening then there aint a soul out there that would want not to hear that. E.g I post both here and over at Klemetti’s about weather that I consider to be significant from time to time. I do it with a short blurb and a link. I post my email often. Dont say thanks here or over at Eruptions. Email me and I will put you on my daily notifications list. Its about 200 now and it goes to a load of folks in the US government. To quote a DHS official, ” I find out more from you about things than the briefings that we are given by our own people. ” Its current weather or short forecast weather and I have about an 80% rate of being correct. Its so you dont get smacked and that too is civility and respect for you, I think that its important that you know.

      So, everyone just chill out and cut the snarky remarks and CERTAINLY DO NOT BE ORDERING PEOPLE OFF THE BLOG WHEN YOU DONT OWN IT OR HAVE ADMINISTRATORS RIGHTS TO IT !

      You dont have the right to do that. You can contact Jonny Fri right here and say that you consider a comment to be in appropriate. Jon, I think you may just want to add a flag to allow people to bring it to your attention if its possible. It may or may not be but a

      But folks, its about volcanoes and Icelandic ones in particular with side streets into other little burps in the earths crust.

      Live long and prosper.

      1. Long winded as it was, the notion was loud, clear and rather pompous, as well as insulting to boot.
        But, it rather broke the horses back.
        I do not think I have ever seen such a convoluted way of asking me to get lost. Well then.
        Have the place then without me then M. Randolph Kruger.

      2. Carl-Again, I wasnt aiming this at you or anyone. I was just saying that everyone needs to get back to it. If you think I was making a statement about you then you would be wrong. If I wanted to make that statement then I would have directly said it. No, far from it old boy.

    6. Bravo Jon. Nicely put 🙂
      I am sure that like me everyone wants to get back to “Normal” here. There is nothing to stop this except ourselves, the readers.
      Jon is extremely broad minded and tolerant and I for one will stay here. I look forward to the extensions and developments that Jon is working so hard on.
      Last Night I popped over to EB , Erik there also has problems, he is running a new Blog format. I enjoyed a separate little “chat” box which certainly did not impinge on the high quality of Erik’s site. The blog format I find confusing (I get easily confused because I am hair pigmentally challenged 🙂 ) But I could see how difficult it is to keep a happy medium in a scientific blog.
      Jon and Erik must cuss us readers something awful sometimes!!!!
      We all say that we support Jon and think he is doing a magnificent job here.

      For goodness sakes let’s help the lad!
      Let’s all now put this behind us. Jon cannot realise his dreams and write when he is spending his time keeping us all in order!
      We are all intelligent here surely we can still ,as we always do, moderate ourselves.
      No more extremes. If things go OTOT (Take that as over the top and Off topic
      and Jon pulls us up he is doing it for a reason. I have said elsewhere if you are a moderator in an on line community it’s worse than being a football referee. You are damned if you do and damned if you don’t.

      That’s my last comment about this.>>>>>>>> Goes for #3 Coffee

    1. This is a blog about volcanoes and earthquakes. So comments about other world wide volcanoes are good, so goes for world earthquakes. But do not expect me to make a blog post about it.

      1. I think you have enough with Iceland and Canaries Jon. 🙂
        And us sometimes cantankerous people.

    1. If you scroll down, you’ll see from the ‘I don’t speak Spanish Mister’ comment that Newby has been vindicated!

    2. This is really excellent. It has widened my appreciation of what it must be like on that lovely little Island. Those poor islanders. Warmest thoughts to you from England.

  13. Jon, or anyone else who is up in Iceland.
    Like the UK you have had a unusually mild start to winter, with warm southerly winds, or should i say mild.
    Anyway my point is, with such low depth quakes in Katla could that be expansion or other weather related effects, or is it Magma movement.
    Just the ice there is extremely deep so maybe no effect, but the weather must be quite unusual there ( unseasonally mild)
    I might be wrong but i think i read somewhere that volcanoes are more likely to erupt there after winter due to less ice pressure but its probably nothing true in it.
    Anyone know?

    1. I think there was a recent discussion on here that concluded the effect of seasonal variation in ice cover was a drop in the ocean as far as pressures undergound were concerned. Long term loss of ice caps is another thing. Also I suspect that it takes years for changes in surface temperatures to affect the bottom of the thicker ice coverings. Ice is a pretty poor conductor of heat.

    2. Just that last 8 quakes in Katla all 1.1km depth or less.
      Without deep quakes as well i think weather related rather than thermal heating of ice below as no sign of magma moving in at depth. But i am a begginer on here and only been here since last years eruption, so im looking for some guidance on this

      1. The earthquakes in Katla volcano do not happen in the glacier. They happen in the rock. The reason why the earthquakes are shallow is because magma is forcing its way up in dyke intrusions, that create earthquakes when it happens.

        The largest dyke intrusions have created earthquakes with the size up to ML4.0 in size. This happens at random with no special pattern. Making it hard to know when it starts and stops.

      2. 1.1 is a sort of average depth used by the IMO ( Icelandic Meteorological Office) when they are not sure or have not yet verified the earthquake depth. This depth often changes as soon as the quake has been checked and verified. Watch also the magnitudes. these are frequently changed once the report and recording is checked and verified. This is one reason why now I wait for a while to post comments about bigger quakes…I so often have made wonderful predictions and deep scientific theories only to find the data was raw and the corrected data made utter twaddle of my brilliant theories 🙂

    1. Thinking more about water seeping thru and change in pressure from above, rather than surface air temperature actually melting deep ice. Thinking more like possibly a few inches of ice melting at surface weighing 1000s of tons, and suddenly that weight disipating. Like i said just asking questions and ideas. No real Knowledge, but its improving fast on here.

      1. Certainly an eruption that rapidly removed the icy overburden would be a feedback system likely contributing to the speed and violence of the overall eruption.

      2. There are three kinds of ice. (per Wikipedia)

        Low-density amorphous ice: 0.94 g/cm³
        High-density amorphous ice: 1.17 g/cm³ – forms naturally at about 1.6 GPa
        Very-high-density amorphous ice: 1.26 g/cm³ – forms only under certain circumstances between 1 to 2 GPa.

        So.. you have in all likelihood, Mýrdalsjökull is made up of low-density amorphous ice since under natural conditions, high-density ice won’t form until the low density layer is about 174 km thick. Thats when you achieve about 1.6 GPa

        Lets say… for the sake of argument that you loose or gain 20 meters of ice in a season.

        At 0.94 g/cm³ thats 0.184 MPa of confining pressure.

        Now suppose that you have a shallow magma chamber… say 5km.

        At 2.7 g/cm³ that’s a confining pressure (lithospheric stress) of about 132.390MPa.

        That means that over a season, the magma chamber sees a pressure change of 0.14%

        For a 10 km deep chamber, that would be 0.07%.

      3. To sum up then?… Not a lot of influence regarding pressure on substrate/etc, although if the water released escaped elsewhere? Would/could that have an influence on the capability of expansion/upwelling of below? (Just following on from hints).

      4. Well, no real sum. You can easily get a 0.7% change in pressure just from a nearby earthquake. In fact, earthquakes occur when the lateral forces acting on the rock overcome the confining pressures ability to help keep the rock stay intact.

        This downward pressure tries to squeeze the rock, and the rock tries to deform horizontally… but it presses on the rock next to it. If these forces (lateral and confining) overcome the sheer strength of the rock, you get a quake.

        In a magma “chamber” melt forms (usually) as the temperature/pressure move back and forth across the solidous point of the crystals down there. Each crystal has a molecular composition. Each molecular composition has it’s own solidous point that depends on what it is made of.

        Pressure changes nudging the material back and forth across those “melt points” cause partial melting… if what melted oozes off to another part of the area, that leaves a different rock composition where it oozed from since some of it never reached the melting state.

        That’s how fractionization occurs and how the various types of magma are formed. Rhyolite being one of the highly evolved types that is sticky in nature due to the high silica content.

    2. Yesterday Geolurking updated his plot of the 2011 Katla quakes (seen here:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxIsg6uTVUU

      thanks again GL!)

      I finally got a chance to study it tonight. As humans always look for patterns and exceptions, the the small cluster of shallow quakes in the Storihryggur area is a mystery to me. (please forgive my inabilty to type proper icelandic)

      (you can enter the coordinates roughly 63.53, -19.12 into Google earth and look up the place names here: http://atlas.lmi.is/ornefnasja/ )

      So why is this cluster here? It sits outside the historic caldera (the outlines are a great addtion GL) in an area (unlike the Godabunga feature) not obviously historically volcanically active. It doesn’t look like there are many features that would make it stand out as a seismic hotspot but there it is.

      Any chance Katla could pull a Mt. St. Helens with a flank eruption from this area? Or are these non magmatic in nature?

      1. That’s Jon’s cluster.

        He pointed them out a while back. Dunno what they are. The part about them that bothers me is that directly to the north, across the main caldera, is the southern extent of the Eldgjá fissure system (934) eruption.

        No, I don’t think Katla will pull a St Helens, the dynamic is all wrong for that. Katla doesn’t need a flank collapse to go big, it just needs the motivation. There are plenty of weak spots inside the caldera that can cut loose.

      2. Stórihrygour as described on http://atlas.lmi.is/kortasja_en/
        Strange that cluster, although, as focused in one place it seems to be perhaps a potential “another” weak spot. I doubt your idea of a flank eruption, as regarding previous data and graphics calculated and perceived regarding the multiple eruptions and complex construction of Mýrdalsjökull /Katla et al. (there seems to be a lot of previous build up on that spot)… Although i could be mistaken.

  15. Hello, I came to this blog from “the extinction protocol” due to intrest in all things volcanic, earthquakes and weather. (did I mention I really love the internet ?) I ask this question in another forum and no one answered so I thought I would post it here. 1. Is there any measurements being taken to show inflation at Katla and el hierro?
    (The USGS measures kiluea in this way and I didn’t know if it is done in Iceland and the canaries as well)
    2. The volcanos in the congo, near Goma, I know I read somewhere where the lava from one of them is hotter than any other lava on earth as it comes from a direct mantle plume, and if so, is this the one that is active now? ( If I can remember the article, they said it was due to continental drift tearing off a section of the sudan region.)

    1. There has been constant GPS monitoring of Katla volcano. I do not know about El Hierro volcano. But I do think that GPS monitoring there was only started after the earthquake swarm did start in July. But I might wrong on that detail.

      The volcano in Congo is due to a rift zone activity. Not a hot spot activity.

    3. Goma is not a rifting volcano. It is of the west african volcanic type. It is close in type to the more well known Mount Cameroon, and that volcano is more closely related to Yellowstone. But the currently active volcano is Nyamuragira (say after ten beers), and it is a fissure volcano not caused by rifting. All of the Congolese volcanos are in a particularly stable part of the world almost totally devoid of rifting. The volcano in question is on the border between DR Congo and Rwanda.
      All of the volcanos in the Fako-band of volcanos emit basalt of average temperature, about the same as Iceland. The Fako band runs from Mount Cameroon, famous for being the highest stratovolcano with a very large magma-chamber that has not gone caldera in an explosive way. There is though a very large caldera there, but it is covered by now. It is hypothetisized that Mt Cameroon is the spot where Africa and South America ripped apart, and that the calder is from that time. Be that as it may. Mount Fako is probably the only stratovolcano that runs basalt only.
      And yes, the same hotspot plume feeds all of the volcanos in the belt. Think Yellowstone and you have it. And no, even though both Yellowstone and Mount Cameroon are ultra-large, they are not likely to go supervolcano in the next half of a million years. Forget supervolcanos.

      1. I am surprised to hear that Goma is not associated with the East African rift zone. Could you provide me with some links so I could update my knowledge of this area ?

      4. Robert…
        Total bloody brainfart on my part.
        Only excuse is that the semicomatose volcanos I was thinking of is in the other end of the congos… Gah… Could someone rename a couple of the Congos please 🙂
        The Fakobelt of volcanos runs into the other Congo.
        I should know better really. I blame other things occupying my head lately.
        Well, the Tombel Graben and Oku Field (Lake Nyos) are the most known features, but it the divides and runs a western chain through central african republic towards Nyiangongo (where it turns into a sub-set of the grift rift), and one part turns steeply south into the other Congo (Brazzaville) where you have a couple of old lava fields and some heavilly eroded shield volcanos in the aptly named area Plateau.

        I should not have made the mistake. But I get confused geographically, ran around those plases a bit to much. For those who wish to go volcano touristing I seriously suggest going to Mount Cameroon, as you start walking up it you will probably meet galoomphing wild elephants, and the sumit of the double crater mountain is a must. Or you do it hard-core and run up all of the 4115 metres. Another eruption is expected withing the next couple of years. It is also the only larger african volcano with its own volcanic agency.

      6. Both Mount Cameroon (Local name is Mount Fako), and Yellowstone share two traits. They both have enormous volcanic chambers. The chamber of Mt Fako (Cameroon) is named Tombel Graben and it runs all the way from Fako to the dormant Stratovolcano of Manengouba. For the mathematically inclined they can start to calculate a fatty rhomboid magma-chamber that is 300 km from point to point. Mt Fako has also 7 separate magma-reservoirs that are fed from Ma Chamber.
        And those who wish can now choose why I have snowed in on west african volcanos, is it A) Because I have worked there, or B) I have relatives living in a few kilometres from the volcano. Up to you to chose.

        The second thing Yellowstone and Mount Cameroon share is that they are pretty much in the middle of a continent, with the speciality of Cameroon being that it has been the middle of a continent plate Twice!

      7. Yes it is highly contended in at least one aspect.
        One theory is that the rifting of south america and africa started in the southern part of the old continent, another theory is that the rifting started centre and outwards.
        After living on Mt Fako for a year and seeing the shear scale of it and seing the seismographic mapping of the chambers of Fako and the outlining of Tombel Graben I am heavily leaning towards the notion of it having cracked there in the center.

  16. Do we have any concrete data on what proportion of eruptions on El Hierro in geologically recent times have been on land rather than under the sea? Although the centre of the northern cloud of EQs is in the middle of the El Golfo slide I have had this feeling ever since I heard about the intitial EQ swarms that the main action is going to be on land and that it may involve the area from the middle of the El Golfo Bay all the way up to and including the central ridge.
    If this were to happen they would lose the old road and make the tunnel critical to an evacuation. I hope this scenario is included in their evacuation plans.

    1. Brian…. Please, calm down.! Geological times span a “HUGE” timescale… Recent eruptions in the previous 2000 tears have not really amounted to much. AND. WE would really appreciate your sauce/source regarding any scientific influences regarding your “Feeling”…. Please continue.

      1. Thank you, if I were any more calm I would be asleep.
        I don’t see any reason why you should TALK DOWN (capitals are such fun aren’t they) to me like this.
        By recent I did have in mind about the last 2000 years but sadly you haven’t helped to answer my simple question.
        As to my feelings (apart from being hurt now) I simply have a non expert opinion as to what may be likely to happen in the near future and while you may disagree with it I don’t believe I was being particularly alarmist in the context of this blog and I don’t believe it warranted such a condescending and sarcastic reply.

    3. I think their evacuation plans don’t include all scenarios, and they expect to have 4 hours lead time for any actions that they do take. I believe they expect to pull people off the El Golfo beach, if necessary. I guess it’s an illusion, or ignorance on my part, but it seems to me that the EQs are getting closer to the beach and occasionally occurring under the land. It seems like they are rocking back and forth and getting shallower. This concerns me. But, I guess it’s sort of like asking people to run to one side of the boat or the other. They just don’t know. If I lived in El Golfo, I’d leave. There are 4 exits, yeah? By air, by sea, by tunnel, by old road. Not sure how that’s gonna go. But, I guess they have a plan. Don’t mean to be cruel, but have they planned for the population to hold their breaths for 4 hours?

      1. I think the authorities are in a difficult position as regards El Golfo. The jacuzzi has been bubbling at La Restinga for a long time now and they have had two evacuations with now two returns. People easily get fed-up when they see nothing happening and don’t understand the possible ramifications of a situation. If El Golfo area had also been evacuated I can imagine the ‘restlessness of the evacues when all they see/feel is relatively minor quakes. Perhaps the best option would be to evacuate all who want to leave now but then there is the problem of the cost of support of all these people. It really is a major problem for authorities I think. Time will tell if they have made the right decision. For me, I would have gone for an extended holiday with my sister in Spain. Some people however have to work.

  17. Greetings all. I’ve been a regular reader (lurker) of Jon’s blog for a long time (since he had his old blog). I have to admit that I don’t like too much off-topic talk and “goodnites” – I come here for the volcano and geology discussions.

    I would ignore off-topic chat but it’s a bit of a drag scrolling through all the posts, especially as a regular reader.

    Sorry 🙁 just adding my opinion. Please don’t get offended lol

    1. Hi Gracie. On the whole I think most of us should tiptoe about quietly and hope for the best. I’ve watched five photography forums tear themselves apart and it usually takes at least 6 months. I doubt this blog can manage it in 3 days.

      1. Brian, If the response to a events like this is wrong. That is what happens in the end.

        I am not going to give up that easy when it comes to this blog.

    2. Thanks for that Gracie…. MOAR ammo!… Please don’t be ashamed tiptoeing, or outrageous flagrancy …. As b4 or commented in future…. This is Interwebs…. All who wish to be trapped are trapped….. Make own mind up an continue… (love)

    1. A beautiful volcano if I may say. Do you know where it is, the caption doesn’t mean much to me.

    2. Thats a good point you make there.
      Everyone has been expecting something to happen over the last few weeks and its all been sub surface or in Iceland its all gone quiet. Even number of worldwide quakes are low this last week. Its volcano withdrawl symptoms making us all moody and ….. For me ive given up smoking too, that don’t help.
      We need a Volcano to erupt to get things back in order here.
      I will say a prayer for one tonight when i go counting sheep

      1. If people are waiting for a volcano eruption. They really should not. Volcanoes do what they want to do. I use the down time for something useful, besides normal monitoring activities.

        Expecting a eruption always leads to a disappointment. People should prepare for the next eruption. Because eruptions come without warning and can start at any time. But expecting them is a road that should not be taken.

        This is what I do, after a long experience with how Icelandic volcanoes behave. Now I am learning on the volcanoes in the Canary Islands.

        In quiet times there are going to be blog posts here. As even in quiet time there is always something going on.

      2. It’s also fair to say that while a really big eruption at Katla or Hekla would be wildly exciting and interesting it could likely have severe consequences for me here on the NW of Scotland let alone for the folks hosting the thing in Iceland.

      3. Not an expert… but I think Katla is set to go moderately large whenever it gets around to it.

        Hekla? Well, Hekla will do what Hekla always does. Catch you with your pants down.

      4. Katla would just beat you up in a good teutonic order.
        Hekla would steal your pants, run away with them, and probably poop in them for good measure. And the odd thing is that one would feel oddly happy about it…

  19. Harmonic tremors on the blog … Strange how tectonics affects politics and sensibilities when the tempo increases… Thanks for your invaluable service “ALL” much education here nonetheless… Keep up the good work. (and Jón, maybe a noble peace prize is in order! Definitely no sarcasm intended, implied)….
    BTW to keep on topic, “Bob” had some slight colic today, you know how it is with kids.
    Trust the Hierro’s stay safe!

  20. Yes Pyro its pretty much acknowleged that losing the ice over volcanoes allows the pressures to rise vertically. E.g. in about 500,000 years the mountains to the east of Yellowstone may cap the volcano permanently because of the weight they will bear down on it.

    1. In the Canadian coast mountains, also sometimes labelled as the Northern Cascades, it has been known for quite some time that the final retreat of the last glaciation (Fraser glaciation ?) triggered quite a tremendous burst of volcanic activity in our usually quiescent volcanoes: Mt. Garibaldi / Garibaldi Lake field , etc .. I suppose due to the uncapping of magma chambers …

    2. Ya know… I keep hearing that.

      And yet the Snake River plain still exists and the mountain ranges that used to cross it are now split. The Farralon plate was sliced up and fell off the remaining fragments… yeah. A mountain range is really gonna stop it.

  21. I noticed in a previous post,that someone said that about 5km below el hierro there was a lot of jurassic shales,would this be a reason for the double signals (tremor) and also could it be a factor in the tendency towards big landslips? great blog by the way,jon,and thanks to all the others for the educational and sometimes hilarious comments.

  23. with all the different nationalities posting on here this OT ranting is being taken far to seriously,being married to a foreign lady, i am all to aware that whats funny or tongue in cheek to one,is an object of annoyance to another, BUT as long as its not personal, let it go and read on. Harold the clever sheep.OT.

  25. I’m the girl that stands up early . My time management is bad (reading the comments of the night, i’m too late at work).
    And because i could not say good night to all:

    A very nice good morning to all the lovers of the blog! 🙂

    1. @Lurking / GeoLurking
      Thank you for your work. Great plot (as always!) Have peaceful night. You may read this later. Should get you “noble price” in the end 🙂

      Been thinking on second source for tremoring (per last weekends discussions), in last days under El Hierro, and find it hard to belive the tremor signal travel can be slower than 3km/sec, so left it. Last night did revue on my hard-drive-saved Fimmvörðuháls eruption files (have lots of “órói” plots ((tremour graphics)) saved on that one, some from days before it started.) From these I see that “órói” ((tremor &/or Harmoncs)) reached highest values days AFTER that erution started. In many ways I think those two eruptions be that, be similar. Both are SMALL fissures, the former petering off after less than one month, the latter (El Hierro) continues – with more “loudness” – it seems. Why this is I do not really know for a fact. Just an amatör observer, reading on this blog. Maybe there can be second phase, like Eyjó. Maybe not. Perhaps the big show is still to come. For that the emergency services on island of El Hierro should practice; test the “emergency plans”. To test if they work. Who knows. I certainly do not.

      @All
      Just my rambling, should stay ((be)) more-in-lurking-mode.
      Great blog. Thanks Jón. May it long live ((!))

    2. A great plot.

      It is interesting that the EQs for November still seem to have two distinct areas which on some angles have a deadzone between them. Would this be two sources of magma or two exit routes for magma?

      2. It could be ‘underplating’. Underlating is magma that has cooled under the crust and is often found under volcanos with low eruptive activity.

      3. Except that with that amount of EQ activity, it is probably a lot hotter now from the released energy and also any new magma.

    3. many thanks Lurking.
      I compared your last plot to this newer plot to see what changes I could spot.
      http://www.youtube.com/user/GeoLurking#p/u/3/uU7xgUVVoKQ
      In your newest plot there are fewer quakes between 10 and 5 km.
      Does this mean that the rock breaking has been done and now there is magma there waiting for a final push? I believe this is where the sedimentary layers are. Does it look like a filled sponge down there waiting for a squeeze to wring the magma out?
      I tend to think in images! Sorry if I do not sound very scientific!

      1. OOps I am sorry I got carried away and forgot to say a big thank you Lurking. I Really appreciate your plots here as I think in images rather than in abstracts. People with mathematical skills have different brain structures. Carl being also a musician will be interested in this paper. 🙂
        http://www.ajnr.org/content/28/10/1859.full

      2. A lot of rock fracturing has occurred since July 2011. There have been recent shallower quakes. IGN gives these a blank depth where they are less than 1km (checked a few against the depth recorded by AVCAN to make sure they were real).

        Interestingly, the shallower quakes are smaller than some of the deeper ones.

        Event: http://oi44.tinypic.com/swa26q.jpg
        Time: (average; max and min) http://oi40.tinypic.com/scyw44.jpg
        Overview: http://oi42.tinypic.com/25hehbc.jpg

  28. To be honest I find it hard to believe that days (weeks? months?) of harmonic tremor, at what seems to be rather a high level (even detected on neighbouring islands) can be explained by the rather modest effluvium (and bubbles) provided by baby bob, irca 0.01 km^3. I believe. I have to say I am more thinking of deposition of significant magma at depth. Whether that comes to the surface is, of course, another matter.

    As jon says, “volcanoes will surprise you”, or put another way “just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water”….

    1. Bob is probably mostly de-gassing from a fractured gas reservoir or from a more general de-gassing of the magma reservoir. Both can eject small amounts of pyroclasts.

      But we won’t really know until the lava proper appears – when, where and how it emerges. Hence the danger.

    1. Looking at the waves and wind direction (Southerly I think) today it is far stonger wind than yesterday. The waves are larger with breaking crests. The movements are pretty constant and “Jerky” I may be wrong but I think wind movements will obscure the tremor movements.

  30. http://www.diarioelhierro.es/t26496/pag02.asp?BD=ESPECIAL%20CRISIS%20SÍSMICA&id_registro=140870&Id=26496&BDi=INICIO&nt=p&Md=&rf3=1&rf3=1

    Alpidio weapons: “Do not agree with the management of the Pevolca”
    The relationship between the Cabido de Hierro and the Canary was tense for the management of the crisis on the island.

    “What is not understood is that in very similar circumstances be decided open or close the tunnel depending on a will that is not explained, nor no one understands it; why last Friday was not opened and and why Yes opens today and why closes the lane closest to the slope of ascent ‘, says Hierro President’.

    SERGIO GUTIÉRREZ, Valverde (15/11/2011 07: 30 hours)
    The President of the Cabildo of iron Alpidio weapons yesterday recognized journal EL HIERRO his disagreement with the manner of managing the crisis by the Pevolca, a tension that comes from the very beginning and which has now materialized with the absence of weapons of the press conferences convened by the Directorate of Civil Protection Plan by volcanic risk.
    Although he didn’t elaborate on the reasons for their discontent, del Cabildo President Hierro Yes recognized this newspaper, however, that “the truth is that we disagree with how the topic is being” is not new this; “what happens is that under this interadministrative cooperation we have believed that it is not appropriate to be aerating these differences,” he said.

    Alpidio weapons trial, “what is not understood is that in very similar circumstances be decided open or close the tunnel depending on a will that is not explained, nor no one understands it;” “why last Friday was not opened and and why today Yes opens and why closes the lane closest to the slope of ascent”, asks the President of the Cabildo.

    According to weapons, “that does not know anyone, reports that we know that these decisions should they have,” he added.

    The President of the Cabildo of iron added, in this sense, “they certainly are issues that take you to think that other types of things, which is not really be out of danger, but that danger is on the other hand”, he said.

    1. Giggling … 🙂

      “weapons” is the English translation of the Spanish word “armas” being also the family name of Mr. Alpidio Armas.

  32. Etna looks to be starting up again!

    As to Bob, there’s a darkish cloud of steam/gasses/yuck gathering above, which I’ve noticed getting bigger and moving slightly West since 9am.

  34. Some thoughts on the current affairs on jon.fr.com/volcano… This may be a bit late, but you’ll find the reasons later in this post.

    While I think I understand Jon’s position, I also do understand Carl’s and many others’. For background, I’ve been running many traditional forums for years in my past, both small and big, both alone and with a team, as the admin or an moderator, etc. According to my experience, the size (number of members) does not matter, every single forum (and blog, too) goes through the same development phases. It is just the way it is, as we are humans with some basic traits.

    First of course, is the birth. At this stage the early core of the forum members (or blog commentators) forms and becomes closer. All the members basically know each other. As one sign of this stage, the atmosphere of the forum gains a certain type of friendly & cozy characteristics, with expressions of friendship, humor and internal code language (e.g. sheep, dalek, etc.). Jon’s blog was exactly like this during most of the first year.

    After that comes “the teens” when the kid’s world suddenly expands. New members join in, partly tempted by the cozy atmosphere. As they try to adapt to the unreserved communication ways of the “oldies” the first collisions start (e.g. the humor of a newcomer may insult an oldie, or vice versa).

    Now, this can lead either to adulthood of the forum or to the death of it. If the forum/blog is to survive, both sides have to adapt. The oldies have to take the newcomers in and tolerate their manners, and the newcomers have to adapt to the un-written rules present at the forum (every forum has those). If the equation does not work, the forum or blog will die, either to inactivity or to quarrels

    Jon’s has a passion on volcanoes. He wants to write of them. I’m glad he does it, and I’ll fully support him in that. The blog is Jon’s blog. He’s the admin/master/boss/god (pick your favorite) of it, and he’s also responsible for the development of it.

    Jon’s blog is not really anymore a pure blog. WordPress was never created to handle properly such an overwhelmingly active readership. In fact, Jon’s blog already behaves more like a traditional forum (with the exception of admin driven generation of new threads). Hence, I can easily see why Jon thinks, his love is more and more being “hidden behind the curtains”.

    I do not think Jon wants to kill the lively discussions. I think he just wants to free again more space for the topic, for which the blog was originally created. Why? Because he’s a man in love, in love with volcanoes.

    For me, the main reason being more lurking than writing recently has simply been the lack of time to crawl through all the 1000 comments only to find the 10-50 items I’ve been reading the blog: Volcanoes. I simply do not any more have enough time to read all the comments! It is not due to changes in my life, it is due to the much higher activity in the blog which has incarnated into the very long comments threads. Generally I like the light atmosphere (even most of your jokes), but the fact is, it currently takes too much time to crawl through all of the text written there.

    I think Jon’s idea of a separate forum is good for the purpose. It hopefully gives a room for general chat for those who want to do so. And I hope it does also give room for those on the blog who want to discuss more about the volcanoes. Carl’s idea about a cafe thread is IMHO equally good for the purpose. In fact it does not really matter for me, which one is realized, as long as it eases the readability of the on-topic threads of the blog itself. Ultimately, it is not about the members, it is about the blog.

    Although I do not count on it, I believe many of the oldies think the same way: If it is too cluttered, they’ll skip it or go somewhere else. I left EB as it became too cluttered (not very user frindly interface) and “official” (every move made the commenting process more tedious). I have enjoyed my time here. It would be a pity if I did not have enough time to read & comment this blog any more. It is just that I have a real 24/7 life, that I have to divide somehow between my loved ones be they persons or volcanoes.

    1. Here, here, fantastic post and I concur wholeheartedly! I also am currently running four forums and while I immensely enjoy the banter, and reducing it through fiat would cause members to leave. Blog software isn’t set up for this much user participation and Jonson instinct is correct

  35. Good morning volcano people of the planet Earth,

    Since bob is just purring along like a contented kitty cat , I have a fundamental science theory question…

    Being a molecular biologist for the past 28 years, you get pretty used to the reality that today’s commonly agreed upon principles, fundamental theories, and assumptions are subject to revision, discardation, and or replacement with new mechanisms of action as our knowledge base broadens, so I ask you in all seriousness with an open mind…

    What’s your opinion on the expanding earth theory and it’s implications on the field of volcanology, both earth based and exoplanetary? A theory that even the best applied science mind in recent human history, Tesla, subscribed to.

    While I disagree with the current proposals on the framework of the how’s… I’m more comfortable with the premise than with the generally accepted theory of plate tectonics.

      1. True, no valid proof, but the proof given for Pangea conveniently “proves” expanding earth too.

        I find the concept of a once supercontinent earth hard to fathom too. And when modeled, doesn’t a single continent cause problems with orbital mechanics?

      2. Pangaea does not give any proof for expanding Earth. It is just an idea invented by those who are hesitant to accept tectonics.

        No. Earth’s internal structure is flexible, so the internals can “compensate” for any orbital instability caused by the outer layers.

      3. From time to time paleo genetics has to look at this issue when trying to figure out evoltioanary pathways (pun intended for the cognoscenti ).

        Plant and animal genetics, morphology, and behaviors strongly imply either a supercontinent or an expanding earth theory.

        I just find it easier to accept an undiscovered growth process for large gravity well systems than rely on the physics gyrations attempting to prove dark matter, strings, hyper dimensions, and other stuff trying to make observations fit the current commonly accepted astrophysical theories…

      4. Please, do not mix geology with astrophysics. Apart from major impoact events, those two are incompatible. They do not try to explain the same phenomena.

        There’s a third possibility: Continental tectonics with occasional supercontinents. Yes, multiple ones at different times. And, this idea has actually more evidence supporting it.

      5. Pangaea is a well established theory in geoscience ,BTW

        It is a consequence of plate tectonic theory, not a denial of plate tectonics, pardon moi , if i am misreading your statement, i apologize

      6. Of course the earth is growing. 40,000 kg of
        material falls daily on Earth, most of it in the form of
        micrometeorites.”
        http://www.dynamicearth.co.uk/education/howitallstarted_science.asp

        ESA Directorate of Manned Spaceflight and Microgravity
        ——————————————————
        “The study of micrometeorites collected in the Greenland and Antarctic
        ice sheets shows that the Earth captures interplanetary dust as
        micrometeorites at a rate of about 50-100 tonnes per day. About 99% of
        this mass is carried by micrometeorites in the 50-500 µm size range.
        This value is much higher than the most reliable estimate of the
        meteorite flux, i.e. about 0.03 tonnes per day.”
        http://www.spaceflight.esa.int/users/file.cfm?filename=userd-ape-com
        This matter might fall on the surface, but thanks to the way the mantle works it is eventually pulled into the mantle and adds to its mass

      7. This theory obviously isn’t as crackpot junk science as you may expect. Plate tectonic theory is only a half century old, too.

        Expanding earth theory obviously interests enough planetary scientists that they spend time, grants, and equipment time to study it….

        See this recent article, and pay close attention to the last sentence.
        http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/08/110817120527.htm

      8. Give me a break! A rate of change of 0,1 mm per year over 12 400 000 000 mm distance (Earth’s diameter)? That’s less than 0,01 ppb per year. Or, less than 1 % during the last 1000 million years.

        It’s NOT changing, lad.

      9. This is a reply to previous comment. Ie don’t confuse geology with astrophysics. If expanding earth theory is true, then it IS astrophysics. And a growing mass universe framework does neatly solve the ” missing mass” problems.

        As for the science daily article, I actually read the source before concluding they left a lot of wiggle room, hence the caveats in the last sentence. The math behind the analsis rests on a mountain af assumptions and I applaud the PIs on the paper for the attempt. Earth sized calipers are just so darn inconvenient!

        And just to make my point, is Bob growing with perfectly even velocity?

        Beware of absolutes!

      10. Lot of wiggle room?! Did we read the same article? You consider 0,1 mm per year “a lot of wiggle”?

      11. Everything changes Jack @ Finland… Although not as regularly as some would like, and perhaps contrary to what some wish for.

      12. Yeah, everything changes… More important than the change is to check whether it is relevant.

        Compare the change in diameter to the total diameter, or the change in mass to the total mass, and you’ll see a fact: They’re not significant nor relevant.

      13. Jack ,
        I don’t think you can win this kind of argument , although you are right .. I don’t know of any respected geoscientist who subscribes to that theory [ as I am, but maybe not so respected … 😉 ]

      14. I’m not trying to win the battle, I’m trying to prevent this crap getting new victims lured in…

      15. Pablo Escobar… Interesting! Just take it easy breaking in the new theories, some minds just can’t cope. (Have you also heard of the plasmaelectromagnetic effect?… I jest not)

    2. My own view as a pure amateur is that the Earth probably does expand and contract, if only because there are cycles of cooling and heating. Plate tectonics must be affected by this / fit in somehow. I don’t know whether we have enough data to say whether it is expanding or contracting at the moment.

    3. NOt sure just what you are asking, but Let me give it a shot. In the last two major earthquakes, (Japan and thailand) the earth LOST about .001 of a second. NOw if you have a mass spinning at a constant velocity, and you increase the size, You decrease the speed ( think of a skater doing a spinfrom arms in to arms out) As the planet heats due to increased nutreno/cosmic rays/gravitational stress caused by coming closer to the galatic plain, then it will swell from the inside. While vocanic action might be considered the pressure relief valve, continetal drift has been and continues to be the main “relief” that has been the constant.
      I recently saw an article from NASA scientist on magnetic field reversal, which discribed how the “dynamo” of molten Iron that drives the plates is already shifting to a reversal (in theory) between that and the subducted plates extending out into the flow of iron, deflecting it, we could see NEW magma plumes being created such as the one in Bolivia which has been discribed as the fastest inflation area on the planet. (I say new, but it could be an old one reawakening)
      Once we cross the galactic plane in 2012, we will begin a “cooling” as we go further from the area of maximum “excitement activity” so in theory (and from thermal dynamics) we could concievably begin a “contraction” period as well, but not in our lifetimes.
      Keep in mind this is mostly supposition on my part, feel free to stick a pin in it if you have other ideas…

      3. well Jack, since I “don’t know any better” enlighten me, I came to learn not be ridiculed. Do we or do we not bob like a sine wave form across the center plain/edge of the flattened center of our galaxy? It seems that siince all galaxies are essentially flat, that the gravity point that holds us from flying off into the void eminates from the black hole at the center ofthe spiral, shouldnt it be stronger at the zero point of the “sine wave form”? I am willing to entertain other theories but as of yet I haven’t heard any others that make much sense…..

      4. Essentially flat might not really be what you expect, though… about a thousand light-years or so, with mass all around us, for a very complicated gravity field. Local effects are pretty much guaranteed to swamp out any central effect here.

        Maybe some number may convince you:
        the gravitational effect is proportional to mass/(distance^2).
        The central black hole may be around 2.6 million times the mass of the sun (2 10^30 kg), and is around 8kpc (pc ~3.1 10^16m) away.
        Works out to a ‘relative strength’ of:
        2.6 10^6 * 2 10^30 / (8 10^3 * 3.1 10^16)^2 or approx 8.5 10-5 (kg/m^2)
        (interestingly approx the same effect as a human has on objects around 1 km away… :-))

        If you then similarly calculate the relative effect of the earth (6 10^24 kg, distance 150 10^9 m) on the sun you’ll find that to be around 270… so more than 3 million times stronger, meaning that any variation in earth’s path will easily override any effect of the center… even if you move us ten times closer its relative effect will only be 100 times stronger, so still much less then earth’s variations would impose.

        You just need *a whole* lot more mass then that, to hold us on our path through the galaxy… and this you only get by the mass of all of the stars and matter (of all colors :-)) in the galaxy together. But that field will not be so nice as that you can really say anymore where in the sun’s path it will be strongest…

      5. Gravity (as a force) is not affected by direction, only by distance. Hence, the galactic plane is not any kind of a special place in terms of gravity. This galactic plane crossing stuff is plain new-age non-sense.

      6. @Marvo76

        “Scientific studies indicate that the solar system lies several dozen light-years north of the galactic plane. What’s more, we are continuing to travel northward, away from the plane of our Milky Way galaxy, at some 7 kilometers per second. Therefore, we won’t be physically passing through the galactic plane in 2012 or anytime in the near future.”

        http://earthsky.org/astronomy-essentials/will-earth-pass-through-galactic-plane-in-2012

        All the hoopla is over the Sun’s alignment with the center of the Galaxy, not a passage though it’s plane.

        Sinusoidal motion back and forth across it?

        Yep. Definitely. But none of us have any hope of being around to see it. (I think the Dinosaurs were around the last time it happened. It’s gonna take a loooong time)

        As for alignment with the center of the Galaxy, “solstice points were in alignment with the galactic equator as recently as the year 1998”

        If I remember right, that alignment crossing takes about 18 years or so.

      7. Lets speak about the year 2012 in the year 2013. I do wonder what new year of doom they are going to use after the year 2012 passes along like every other year on planet Earth.

      10. I actually worry about the concept of folks thinking that the “galactic plane”, is just that, a knife edge wide plane that we are going to wiz right through.

        Surely, it’s a multi year transit, no?

      11. If you accept a tolerance of 1 degree, the transit takes about 1-2 million years!

      13. Thanks for the explination folks, I only spoke from what I have read up to this point, NOw that that has been clarified, I do note that there is a new theory on magnetic pole shift that may be helping to influence some of these things as well. I believe it ws a NASA site I saw that on, quite recent, in fact within the last month or so. also just read where there is concern in the carribean as well due to increased tremor activity in hati, and one of the british protectorates as well as puerto rico, and the area near the trench. The article was concened about stresses, but also that there are many “potetial” active volcanos in the region. I can only think of two, Martinique and Monserat.

      15. And: Earth’s magnetic field or the changes in it, they do NOT affect volcanic activity.

      16. Jack @ Finland says:
        November 16, 2011 at 05:51

        “And: Earth’s magnetic field or the changes in it, they do NOT affect volcanic activity.”

        Oh yes they do. They determine in what direction the little magnetic domains of the minerals line up in when it cools! ( had to do it ya know 😀 )

      17. Well, you should know, that’s not volcanism any more, that’s minerology! 😛

      18. Uh oh, you brought it up. Now we are gonna be inundated by followers of the Church of Minerology and the doctrines of the holy phase diagram…

    1. An interesting video luisport and thanks for posting it as I don’t get the time to search myself. What i found most interesting is that what I took to be water spray or vapur yesterday now on this close up image appears to mainly the smoke coming off the stones thrown up.
      That has clarified something for me today.

  37. I was sitting on my phone reading through all of the comments here yesterday, and I really see something really rare. I see people with the something in common, that shares what they like, what their passion is. And it’s different people, from all over the world. Different people, with different meanings, different ways of looking at things. But at the end, you all could agree on one thing, and that is the love for this blog. The atmosphere, that is still here, even though there has been some tiny arguments. It will go back to the way it was. I can promise that. How I know? Cause like, Carl, Lurking and you others that has been here for a really long time, you are not just curious, you are having this as a hobby. And for all the newcomers, well, some are gonna choose to stay, and some are gonna leave. But no one of you will be so connected to this blog when things are totally quiet. There is a current eruption going on at El Hierro, and that gets loads of attention, from people all over the world. But when that is over, people are gonna move back to their old way of living. But them thats been here from before, they are still gonna be here, discussing the sheeps on cam. Carls wild bet about Katla and Hekla, and all them other silly things, that actually makes this blog so much fun, and makes it into a good hobby.

    And to all you new people here. It’s great that you are all here, and that the “old” people here, gets to share their passion with you. And are teaching you about volcanoes. Because I don’t just speak for myself, when I say that I’ve learned so much here. And wow, I’m really falling for this place. Even my boyfriend is jealous. And thats when you know that you belong here. When the people closest to you gets sick of hearing about volcanoes 😛

    That might have come out a bit cheeky, but hey, that how it is. And Jon, what a fabuolus job you’re doing! Thank you so much!!!

  38. @Pablo Escobar. Interesting.

    Quote:
    “The scientists estimated the average change in Earth’s radius to be 0.004 inches (0.1 millimeters) per year, or about the thickness of a human hair, a rate considered statistically insignificant.”

    But isn’t that 1km per million years? In goeological timescales I’d call it significant….

    1. No, it’s 100 metres per million years. Compare that to Earth’s diameter, and you’ll see it is nothing.

      1. Thanks for this move into molecular biology and expanding earth theory. I have recently been looking for papers that might have some bearing on an idea I have just had, and so far nothing relevant has answered my google searches.

        My point is about water in the mantle, its contribution to the formation of crystals which grow in the earth, the basic notion that life makes water out of carbon dioxide – though the papers are about alternative fuel sources (Carroll et al) – and the role of iron or silica in the chemical changes involved.

        The Henry Seamount circulates water and has biological organisms similar to those found on black smokers. Bob’s floaters were sponge in texture, wrapped in basalt.

        Thank you Diana for posting Lurking’s earlier plot. It reminded me that our early discussions were around 2 different types of magma. The arrival of Bob diverted us from that discussion, and the direct heat source from the mantle, arriving deep in El Golfo, has quietened the earlier quake clusters in the area where we originally considered the centre of El Hierro volcano to be located, before the quakes moved deeper.

        Apologies if this post is a bit convoluted.

        There are 3 main points to it.
        1 – carbon dioxide, water, silica, carbon and iron mixing with or even producing water with the catalyst of what, microbes?
        2 – expanding earth theory
        3 – El Hierro’s quakes and magma locations: crystallized, mantle-sourced and rifting.

        Thanks guys. Interesting food for thought, as always.

    2. please ….

      Expanding earth? Why do we need such a theory when existing theory (plate tectonics, conservation of mass etc) rather neatly explains everything?

      AND furthermore ‘expanding earth’ would completely go against pretty well every observation (from moons cratering ages, to conservation laws) you might care to mention.

      1. The earth’s weight increases by 100,000 pounds each year from dust and meteoric material falling from the sky, from the residue of burning fuel, and from salt from the ocean spray!

      2. The Earth’s mass is currently (grin) 6E24 kg. If your figure (approx. 50000 kg per year) is correct, Earth’s mass increases by 0,01 ppb in 1000 million years. If the mass spread evenly and took the density of Earth’s average density, the relative volume change due to this would be approx. 1/3 of the mass change, i.e. nothing!

        People are misled by these wild theories simply because they are not capable of doing correctly even the most simple and basic arithmetic operations (additon, subtraction, multiplication and division)!

      3. Jack, I freely admit that P Chem gave me fits at Vandy, and regrettably lost at least 5 IQ points while earning MBA in Finance and Marketing, but I think I have an appreciation for big, and of course, very, very small numbers. ;). My world is measured in atomic and subatomic distances so maybe planet size math just goes over my head,
        ;), or maybe not….

        Sadly I often find that even our science based mass market media, such as science daily, dumbs down papers so much, that you have to go reread the originating paper before drawing opinions.

        Indeed, if you go and do so in this case, you may quickly realize that the task they set themselves created insurpassible margins of error and assumptions of how to approach the calculations that their final result, while I am sure vigorous to their models and assumptions, was meaningless as a calculatable unit of measure.

      4. You don’t include the oceans and the atmosphere in the weight of the Earth??????

        Meteoric material could count as an addition – but I doubt its significance.

      5. salt from sea spray ?? your joking right ??? the weight of salt whether it is in the ocean or on the land is the same …. same goes burning hydrocarbon fuel .. it is not adding to the weight of the earth because it is there already …

        you must also keep in mind dust gain from astro debris against loss of atmospheric mass to space …

      6. Otto, I am just a simple housewife with no science background but surely salt from ocean spray is just another form of earths efficient recycling, residue of burning fuel would be less that the weight of the fuel taken from the earth in the first place. Meteoric material is interesting but I would have thought compensated by the amount of junk man has launched into space in recent years. Some will return but a lot of that will surely be burned up in the atmosphere again.
        Perhaps I am looking at this from a simplistic viewpoint and would be interested to read what someone with more scientific knowledge would think of this. It is though a fascinating discussion.

    3. did they imply that the change (if any ) always had to be in one direction ? i don’t think they did

    2. “and now there are two blocks (the volcanic cone and a block).” Can you explain what that means, please.

  40. Appears Öraefajökull has gone back to sleep. Haven’t seen any quakes there for a while now.

  41. Here is the comparison I’ve now done between the tremor data in boletin_HIERRO.txt and data on the earth tide amplitude beneath El Golfo bay.

    http://i43.tinypic.com/209t1zk.png

    The raw quake count data is a count of the earthquakes in each 4-hour period from 00:00 UTC on 19th July to the present. The earth tide data is generated by a program ‘solid’ by Dennis Milbert:

    http://home.comcast.net/~dmilbert/softs/solid.htm

    which uses data and equations published by the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS). I modified the program to generate the tide samples for the same period beginning July 19th and sampling at the midpoint of each 4-hour period.
    The program generates tidal displacement components in the North, East and Up directions. I have used the North component as it exhibits the largest 14-day period amplitude relative to the daily variations.

    The filter is a 275-tap Finite Impulse Response filter which cuts off period components shorter than 10 days and has 30dB or better attenuation in the stop band.

    On the graph, the red line is the filtered quake count data and the green line is the filtered earth tide data. As you can see, there is a definite correlation, though the phase changes with time from being almost in phase to being almost in antiphase.

    I think the quake data in recent times is not complete – there should be more small quakes, but they are probably hidden by the harmonic tremor. I guess some clever signal processing could extract the data but it’s probably not practical on a continuing basis.

    1. very similar, but not the same frequencies . what it says to me is coincidence …

      1. Possibly. I present the hypothesis & some supporting data. It probably needs a bit more statistical analysis to determine if there really is any correlation.

    2. Why on earth did you filter the quake data?!

      Basically, your choice of corner frequency equals to weighting the quake data artificially to enhance any period longer than 10 days, i.e. enhancing any presupposed periodicity close to tidal periods!

      I see no need, nor any benefit in adjusting the quake data to fit a presupposed hypothesis. This is not science. At the best, this is data forgery.

      1. The approximately 14-day periodicity in the quake data is already there, as shown by my previous Fourier transform analysis. The hypothesis is that this is due to tidal forcing at half the lunar period. The filtering is to remove the noise of shorter period components to allow better comparison of the quake sequence with the tide sequence. Both quake and tide data were filtered identically. There is some apparent correlation but it needs more analysis to decide if it is statistically significant.

      2. The fact is, filtering always alters statistics. Hence, whatever was the original statistics, it becomes obsolete / rubbish / unusable when the data is filtered. Unless you know exactly how the given filtering algorithm affects statistics after filtering, your comparison is groundless.

        Always, when fiddling with data, beware of statistics!

  42. @Jack

    Sorry, a slip of the decimal points, you’re correct.
    Although that makes it 100 kilometres per billion years.

    Just because something “rather neatly explains everything” doesn’t make it fact.

    1. No, Ken, it doesn’t explain things, but it correlates with the concept of different layers of crust and ocean below the present one. There is also a bulge centred on Iceland which also has layers of crust and ocean floor below it. The complexity is way beyond me, but different models go some way to contextualising the information available.

    2. 100 km in billion years is only 4 times the difference in equatorial and polar radiuses. Fits nicely, as these vary over time due to entirely natural processes (Earth’s shape is not fixed nor constant).

    1. Saw it also in the newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung itself (not only the webpage) of today. 🙂

      Also its one of the widest spread and best renowned German newspapers.

    2. Saw it also in the newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung itself (not only the webpage) of today. 🙂

      Its one of the widest spread and best renowned German newspapers.

      1. Sorry, this is one too much. But first, I thought it wouldn’t come here so, I repeated to post it …

  44. @Alyson

    Don’t get the wrong idea, I’m not supporting the expanding Earth theory, or trying to debunk plate tectonics.
    I just thought that unless something has been “proved” without doubt, that science would test new theories.
    Maybe “Expanding Earth” has been disproved already. I’m far from an expert!

    1. Wikipedia has a section with a reference which suggests the theory of expanding earth has already been basically disproved for a lot of geological time at least. 620 million years = all the way beck to the end of the precambrian (so basically back to the dawn of life-ish)

      Quote from Wikipedia says
      Examinations of data from the Paleozoic and Earth’s moment of inertia suggest that there has been no significant change of earth’s radius in the last 620 million years (reference = Williams, G.E. (2000), “Geological constraints on the Precambrian history of the Earth’s rotation and the moon’s orbit” (PDF),
      http://www.eos.ubc.ca/~mjelline/453website/eosc453/E_prints/1999RG900016.pdf )

      1. Certainly I wouldn’t dispute tectonic plates. There is no argument there. The point I was making was in relation to water and carbon dioxide, and microbial life near black smokers, and layers of crust, and water deep inside the earth.

        The speculation was that if there is a tidal response from the earth, whether water in deep aquifers was the cause, viz the milbert paper linked by jcsager above.

        Plus crystals growing out of chemical reactions including water…

        http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/10/101007-lost-crystal-caves-mexico-science-mine-superman-ice-palace/

  45. Something I have noticed today is that the quakes on El Hierro seem to be slowly becoming more shallow. Still deep I suppose at 16/17 km but they have well outnumbered the ones below 19 km. Including the larger 3.4 quake being only at 17 km depth rather than the 20+ that most of the large quakes have been.

  47. ======
    Ken.P says: November 15, 2011 at 15:29

    Don’t get the wrong idea, I’m not supporting the expanding Earth theory, or trying to debunk plate tectonics.
    I just thought that unless something has been “proved” without doubt, that science would test new theories.
    Maybe “Expanding Earth” has been disproved already. I’m far from an expert!
    ======

    OK…..

    1) Nothing is ever proved “without doubt”.
    2) This doesn’t mean that some theories are not so solidly based that there are no competing theories with any credibility.
    3) If you are going to have a competing theory then it needs to explain things that the existing theory cannot explain.

    So, Newtonian mechanics (for all reasonable use) and Evolution are examples of (2).

    Dark matter, and several other cosmological theories are examples where (3) is in flux.

    Pretty well all the “crank theories” are based on (basically) ignorance of the facts, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t widely held. About 10 years ago a survey found that 90% of UK primary SCHOOLTEACHERS thought the sun went round the earth, for example.

    Note that (paraphrasing Galileo), even if everyone in the world believes a falsehood, this doesn’t make it true…

    NB Expanding earths and similar crank theories are demonstrably wrong, to a very high level of precision!

    1. ‘About 10 years ago a survey found that 90% of UK primary SCHOOLTEACHERS thought the sun went round the earth, for example.’

      I would really like to see the source for that one. From my memory that’s about 3 times the percentage for the school children.

  48. Re Expanding Earth and Electric Universe theories.

    Until you can provide a mechanism that generates the requisite matter, or accounts for the transformation of subatomic particles from type to another, both being central assumptions in the respective theory…

    Then you are barking at the moon.

    1. Lurk,

      I’m not familiar with the electric universe so cannot comment.

      Junk DNA was just that, junk, till it wasn’t. Now it’s no longer junk, it’s important!

      Expanding earth theory is so far out there, you need a telescope to read the label, so you’ll get no profestations of love from me.

      To be quite frank, I was shocked when I found out that Tesla believed in the mass from nowhere theory as well. His conclusion, of course, was that the sun will grow till it explodes,
      http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/The_New_York_Herald_Tribune/1935/08/18/Expanding_Sun_Will_Explode_Some_Day_Tesla_Predicts

      Just as geneticists have to deal with and hypothesize atomic level interactions without the ability to see them for themselves, only through models and approximations, the ability to get to the bottom of a gravity well and see if matter is created or “sucked out” from somewhere else, will probably never occur.

      God doesn’t play dice, as Einstein observed, but the rules of the game just currently looks like he does. Who would of thought that we would be using quantum mechanics in everyday products just a few short years ago?

      I like to keep an open mind, especially when current commonly accepted “facts” don’t make sense. See Junk DNA reference.

      1. “God still doesn’t play with a dice” applies to quantum mechanics. Even though the outcome of a single event can not be predicted (single events are probabilistic), the laws governing quantum physics are fixed (i.e. not probabilistic).

      2. “Junk DNA was just that, junk, till it wasn’t. Now it’s no longer junk, it’s important!”

        And this falls into the category of an inverse strawman argument. A “red herring” of sorts.

        Until either one of those positions or theories can demonstrate a plausible argument, they are the equivalent of barking at the moon.

        For matter to turn from one form to another, you have to demonstrate or at least state a methodology by which this can take place. You have to present something that can be verified by observational data, or at least heavily pointed to or inferred by other observations.

        Take the Moon-Quake issue. There is a signal in the data. At least, there appears to be a signal in the data. Back out the orbital dwell time, and it still appears to be in the data. But that signal is not strong enough to rise above the background noise. This means that it very well may be an artifact. Until the data supports more than what can be attributed to statistical noise, it’s un-provable.

        That doesn’t mean I wholly dismiss it, it just means that I can not state or claim it as fact. I have no proof.

        Likewise, when deep diving through the solar wind data and doing correlation to quake counts on an event by event basis, there is absolutely no signal that I can find. That idea is on even more shoddy ground than the Moon connection.

        Am I being an asshole? Probably. But at least I went and looked at the data first. It ain’t there.

    1. I do believe that is a line of bubbles…. that seem to be staying in one spot.

      Not a good place to have something develop… right in the middle of the channel to your breakwater.

      1. Are you sure it isn’t a line of bubble from the changing tide? I am not suggesting you are wrong as I didn’t see what was happening but I do know that strange things happen at harbour mouths when the tide turns. I really hope this is all it was as Lurking is more than correct that a harbour mouth is a very bad place for a volcanic vent, even a small one.

      2. I think it is foam generated by some rather heavy wind. The foam rests where there are no wind behind the pier. The foam normaly consists of algies but here it could be stuff from Bob.

    1. Sorry Randolph but unless I missed what you and Mizar are talking about then I see nothing on the webcams apart from the normal sea distubance at a harbour entrance. I live near a harbour similar to the one pictured so do see many such disturbances. Can you tell me if what is showing now is the same as when you posted?

      1. I now see a smallish (Smallish being relative to the perspective!) line of white that could be a new vent but is off to the left of the harbour entrance. Not I would have thought an artifact of the tide but not sure. Although not right in the entrance still close enough to be a BIG problem if it is volcanic in nature.

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