Posted on by Jón Frímann

Update on the eruption in El Hierro volcano on 9 November, 2011

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The eruption in El Hierro volcano is ongoing and does not appear to show any signs of ending. However the strength of the eruption has dropped a bit during the past two days. But this was to be expected, since this is a fissure eruption and it has mostly been erupting from the same vents during the past four weeks.

It has become a bit difficult to get accurate information on what is going on El Hierro Island. So I am not going to speculate on that. But from what I can gather it seems that dangerous gas level has been detected on the ground. But the reports that I am reading are bit unclear on this. This has also been mentioned in comments on this blog.


The harmonic tremor from the eruption in El Hierro volcano at 15:23 UTC on 9 November, 2011. Copyright of this picture belongs to IGN.

As can be seen on this tremor plot the harmonic tremor in the eruption is dropping. Explosions that have taken place are also clear on this tremor plot. That might be because the eruption vent is getting smaller, therefor less magma is being push out the erupting vent. Or the currently erupting vent might be closing up. As so often happens with fissure type eruptions. If that happens does not mean that this eruption cycle is over. It just means that the current eruption vent has closed up. New fissures are most likely to open up in coming weeks as the eruption goes on. Where and when it impossible to know for sure.

Earthquake activity continues in north part of El Hierro volcano. This are most likely dike intrusions into the bed rock there. So earthquake activity should be expected to continue north west of the town Frontera. If a dike intrusion manages to find a path to the surface in this area there is going to be a eruption and earthquake activity should drop following that. But until and if that happens there are going to be earthquakes. There is also chance of hydrothermal activity to show up in this area if a dike intrusion gets shallow into the bed rock. But is not go up from the ground and start a eruption. This might also be the reason why some part of El Hierro Island are experiencing high levels of toxic gas for the moment.

I am going to post more on the eruption in El Hierro volcano as I know more what is going on.

418 Replies to “Update on the eruption in El Hierro volcano on 9 November, 2011”

  1. 10/11/2011 @ 11:33 – El Hierro council to install professional webcams for the world to view the eruption live. This is after the huge demand for information from around the world. Telefonica are currently testing a system that will guarantee enough bandwidth to cope with the demand anticipated. More information and the URL will be released over the next few days.

    2. Thank you Karen, they are very informative and good looking.

      The average depths have not changed a lot (yet?). Only the quakes SW of Frontera differ a lot in depth from day to day, and earlier tend to get deeper instead of shallower.

      1. Thank you, Karen Z. These are very nice looking plots. But would it be possible to turn them abside down? Could be easier to read then.

      2. I agree and separate them with definition to get the best effect. What I am seeing is not disturbing but like dealing with ants. They will eventually break out if you bury them.

        Better definition might buy more time. KZ-AVCAN and PEVOLCA DO look at what we gather here. If this suddenly starts to move up there are going to be casualties if they cant evac the island quickly enough.

        Do I think its going to go? Sure looking like it.

      4. My first thought was also that upside down would be better. Actually, I think this was only because we are so used to see all graphs mainly using the positive part of both axes. But when you think of a quake being underground it is maybe more logical to put the depth of the quake beneath O on the y-axis. Then you see a deeper quake forther DOWN on the graph – lust like it is in reality. So in my opinion this is the best representation.

        Different colours instead of light – medium – dark are maybe easier to distinguish, I do not know, one should have to try and see. I think the graphs are very clear as they are.

      5. The average depths are lower at the moment (excluding those which may have occured since I did the download).

        However, these are averages and I must emphasise that, while there have not been many shallow quakes – they have occured.

  6. These will not help attract tourists to Hierro:
    from ER: “The first components of the “wind farm” to be installed in the central part of El Hierro arrived on the island yesterday. 70 parts of the wind turbines left Germany on October 27. The unloading operation needed 100-ton cranes and trailers with a length of 40 meter, this due to the large size of the material. The blades are 35 meters long.”
    Where are they going, and how many?

    2. Part of the pump storage, solar and wind turbine farm located between the east end of the island and the vent on the south coast. Supposed to be in gear by this fall.

  7. It shall consist of five wind turbines, creating a wind farm in the vicinity of 10 MVA substation and electrical installations, control and communications system and associated civil works.

    The wind farm will be located in the Montaña de Rivera area, in the municipality of Valverde is a space between the Loma del Gamonal and the ridge of Pico de Los Espárragos, south of the capital and east of El Hierro TF 912.

    Extract taken from
    http://www.elhierro.tv/noticias/009_04_30/009_04_30.html

    1. Well I change my opinion- well done El Hierro!! This looks like the world’s best designed wind power scheme, because its backed up by pumped storage.
      One of the big drawbacks with wind power is matching an erratic supply to demand: the need to back up wind with usualy gas-powered generators kills most of the CO2 savings. Pumped storage gets around that.
      Only puzzle: why not use sea water pumped storage?

      1. Because sea water contains salt and some of it will get into the water table, which is a really bad idea on a small island.

    2. I’d have thought that a big draw back to the project is the uncertainty surrounding a possible volcanic eruption.

      The insurance premiums must be eye-watering.

      2. Thought there is a de sal plant attached to this to provide water for the ponds and produce drinking or irrigation water. Wonder how the liner keeps the water from lubricating the old joints?

    1. See my post above for another analysis by Kroll et al: high quartz content derived from sedimentary rock – sandstone.

  9. This has certainly already been posted, but in case if not:
    Los mapas realizados por científicos del IEO a bordo del Ramón Margalef muestran un rápido crecimiento del volcán submarino de El Hierro

    The maps realised by scientists of the IEO on board the Ramón Margalef show rapid growth of the submarine volcane at El Hierro

    http://www.ieo.es/inicial.htm

    1. Click the link on the right that says ‘la eruption del el hierro’ it take syou to a page with some interesting looking screen captures (near the base of the page)

      showing a profile of El Hierro and the plume of gas/bubbles etc

  10. Even if the eruption continues at the current rate, it’ll still take some time to break the surface, since the volume of ejecta required to construct the cone goes up in a cubic manner. If we assume the depth is 200m, and it’s already built a 100m cone (imaginary numbers, I haven’t seen any good sources for these numbers, maybe someone who’s been following more closely can work it out), it’ll take 8 times as long for the second 100m, assuming a constant rate of eruption. With some accurate figures we could probably come up with a reasonable guestimate for when Bob will break the surface, assuming the eruption does not stop.

    1. I think most of the magma rolls down along the bottom as pillow lava.
      Surtsey was different in that sensa as the sea depth was only 130 meters and the bottom level (horizontal)
      It should be very interesting to see newer sonar pictures, those provided being 2 weeks old.

      1. Yep, that’s the reason why the second 100m would take 8 times as long – volume of a cone is proportional to the height cubed…

      2. Antony, normaly you are correct, I would though like to point out that it has a bit to do with angle of the slope of the cone.
        El Hierro builds up quite steeply.

        I also noted A) that the shape tapers into a point as it grows and B) that the depth of eruption start was not that great. It was well above 180 meter mark. My guess after having done some mathematical guesstimation (contradiction in terms, I know, but physicists always try to formalize uncertan data amounts and values) I came up with a current depth ranging of 75 to 25 meters depth.
        And judging by the video taken from the last helicopter flight I still believe that we have two boulders sticking up on one side of the crater.

      4. @Ursula – Carl did mention 2 black rocks in an earlier post – so I think those are the ones he’s refering to – yes.

  11. @ Lurking I assume that El Hierro is an old island. But I think that this island is build on top of an other island. That island could have been formed during a period with low oceanic waterlevels (iceages). That old island could have had a basaltic cover. Could that be the slab you were talking about? With the rising waterlevels, old El Hierro sank beneath the waves. (Atlantis (to get some discussion)).

    A lot of BOBs created the new El hierro. But the base (between the islands) consists of the same material BOB is creating. A sponge like material that acts as an sound/eq barrier. That would also explain the boatlike appearance of the eq’s on the latitude side

  12. Scaremongering comment from Larz deleted. I also had to delete the sub-comments as if I do not do that they go out of place and mess the whole comment system up.

    1. Thank you for that Jon although his first comment is still on my screen. I just ignore these comments as you cannot reason with people who have a mind set!
      Has the man who was lost on the mountains been found yet? If he has not, I do not rate much for his chance of survival now. Far too cold.

      1. What comment is that (link please, links can be found if clicked on the date).

        They found the man car. But he was close to Sólheimajökull glacier. But that glacier is dangerous, as it has many cracks in it. Around 400 people are now doing active search for this man.

        I hope that they find him ok. But as the time passes that chance gets ever so smaller. It is now rain and cold wind in this location at the moment.

      2. Probably something stuck in Dianas cache. I cannot see it at all.

        Please keap me posted about the missing Swede, I have a horrible feeling that I might (distantly) know the dude.

      7. I am planning on writing a short and cheap book on how to travel in Iceland. It is not going to be a fancy book or long. Just the basic on how to travel in Iceland all year around.

        There is nothing like that out there and I think there is a need for that type of book to out there.

      8. That would be very useful Jon, I often look at the travel agents, and it’s just all the tourist stuff. We would love to see volcanic Iceland.

      9. That was a really good idea.
        Iceland is a fantastic country that is stunningly beautifull. But it is like Scandian mountains, very isolated and with trecherous weather. A good book on it would have a good potential to sell.

      12. This summer our Iceland was titeled:
        “where we did not get …”
        Not to the hot springs on the Kverkfjöll (not enough training).
        In the near Fimmvordurhals (a ridge I do not want to go)
        and some others (to much new snow for the car, to much storm for us)
        But the travel was great …
        Sometimes I’m happy to be a coward…

      14. Oh Jon that would be an excellent thing to do. You are right it doesn’t need to be too complicated . I am sure it would sell well so get writing before someone else comes up with the idea!!
        Oh dear Carl. I do hope the poor man survives and is rescued.

      15. Yes a good idea indeed!

        Me and the GF hiked in Iceland in 2008 for two weeks, and would have loved such a book. Mostly everything we found officially was very “touristly” and dull and didn’t help us at all with the planning!

        One part of our trip went from Landmannalaugar -> Skogar and included the location where this poor guy got lost.

        In the same area we got into trouble by the sheer amount of wind … I live on the coast of Norway (a windy place by all means!) and I have never, ever experienced anything akin to what we got on “Fimmvörðuháls” (the ridge between Eyjafjallajökull and Mýrdalsjökull).

        We had to turn around maybe 300 meters away from where the flank-eruption of 2010 happened, because it was completely and utterly impossible to actually continue moving upwards. Let me make it clear; it was not only not possible to walk or even stand, but we were in fact unable to CRAWL onwards!

        The reason for this was the wind moving into a “bowl” in the terrain, and then being forced upwards through a valley hitting us on a 90-degree angle while we tried to move along a ridge. Uncomfortable to say the least, but at least we had lots of daylight and time, and thus the option to head back to camp …

        A few snapshots from the trip for those who might be interested:

        http://gallery.me.com/thnp#100189&view=grid&bgcolor=black&sel=17

      2. @Tor Hogne.
        Very beautiful pictures of Iceland, Landmannalaugar and Snaefellsnes indeed. On the 2nd picture, would that be the hver (sulfur spring) near Brennisteinsalda or is there now another one in the lava field Landmannahraun?

      3. Thanks,

        to be honest I don’t remember the location of where we took the second picture exactly. It was around 30-60 minutes walking southbound from Landmannalaugar, around one of the first hills we encountered.

  15. I realise that lots of people contributing to this blog have lots of experience in reading the graphs and information, and was wondering if someone would do a lesson for the rest of us who do not understand what the information is telling us, for example what are the NGI waveforms and spec telling us?
    I have learnt so much from this blog but want to understand more
    thanks

    1. You know that would take a book to answer it all in one go.
      Even just the raw spectral analyzis and tremor-plot of IGN would take a chapter in how analyze it.
      Untill Jón writes that particular book I suggest that you ask specific questions and hang around here. After a while you will start to get it.
      I think there are some books around you could also read.

      1. Brilliant 🙂 Helped me out explaining things to my 6-year-old daughter too, I always over-complicate things in my confused daft head. Thanks for this link 🙂

      1. Or just use Google Scholar.
        Most universities on the planet are neither in UK, nor using an .edu adress.
        I have found that Google Scholar is a really usefull tool to filter away the vast bulk of bullhork that the internet consists of.

      3. These tips are very helpful, thank you, Carl and Ursula. Also in order to find good material for different usage.

    4. Geeki Listen to Carl’s advice. read up all you can on line and have a go at visiting Iceland’s met office and follow some of the Iceland quakes.
      That is how I learn. There is so much that it really would be difficult to put it all on this blog at one go.
      Most importantly ask questions here about specific things. Do not worry we all ask questions and some of mine sound really dumb at times :). Here are some good links to follow about Iceland graphs.
      http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/
      That one shows all the Quakes in Iceland. To the left you can see the different areas. Click on that to bring up a particular area and the details of the quakes.
      This next link takes you to all the SIL stations that measure tremors. Read the information the Met office gives.
      http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/index.html
      This last link is an excellent interactive map of Iceland.
      http://atlas.lmi.is/kortasja_en/

      Iceland has so many different types of Volcanoes. It is a complicated geology but watching there for a few months will teach you the basics and lots more.
      Enjoy 🙂

      2. Diana, thanks for this last link, I didn’t see that one before. That’s a great interactive map, easy to find any place in Iceland, really great!!

        Heh, captcha is upside down – how do you enter that? I think time to reload it…

      3. Yaaaaaa Hooooo! At last I have done something useful on here. 🙂 Not being very good at Maths or remembering complicated formulae I tend to add to what is politely called Banter 🙂
        Ahh! Bliss! I can go to bed and count sheep contentedly tonight 🙂

    5. Geeki-Ask the questions as they come up. It would be good to get a nice intro book on Geology 101 level from the library. Covers rock types, plate tectonics, a bit of theory of models.

    2. The original bet was actually made by me.
      I made a bet that Hekla would erupt before Katla. And that if Katla erupted I would walk up to the Búrfell Dalek cam and BBQ my hat. I am pretty convinced that I will not have to BBQ my hat though.
      After that someone came up with the notion that I was going to do that starkers. I think it was one of our happy Ladies that hoped that. Well, after that it evolved into something rather odd that requires a dance-club, sheeps, public nudity, and by then I decided that it was time for a party, bet or no bet.

      1. But now that I think about it, someone else said they was going to BBQ a hat at Búrfell if something happened to that plot. I do not remember the specifics though. Was it you Peter that made the bet?

      2. think u tried to make him do the bet it would top out at 2,50e+12… – think he chicken’d out??

      4. If I typed LOL here every time I do LOL, this blog would be twice as long as it is on a million-hit month. In addition to learning more and more about volcanoes and earthquakes.

        I would love to see someone like Jon guide small groups to the top five (or so) sites in Iceland. Lots of cash there!! Fit ’em all into a nice 4×4 and go. I hope there is a party and that I can go to it. Also think that if you do go starkers Carl you wouldn’t have to actually eat your hat. Maybe just sacrifice it to the volcano.

      5. @ Carl –

        Lately I have been thinking about your bet, and how your premise of Hekla erupting first is sort of canceled out by your theory that Katla’s rumblings have a calming effect on Hekla. If the latter is correct, wouldn’t Katla be able to keep Hekla at bay with her nearly continuous gentle quaking until one day SHE, Katla, erupts first, and voilà: — you have lost the bet!

      6. Yes, it could work like that yes. I think they are fairly working as agents of mutual exclusion on each other.
        I think that is why Katla has had that long a hiatus, Hekla has been to active and has worked as a relaxation agent on the SISZ.
        I still think it is more likely that Hekla will erupt again and relax Katla, than the other way around. But, sooner or later Katla will erupt regardless, and that would be when Hekla goes to bed.

    3. Yes its levelling off at 50/50 split between the cumulative energies of the early shallow eqs and the recent deep eqs under el Golfo. The eq numbers are about 5-fold different between the two groups, reflecting their different magnitudes.
      That might in turn be a reflection of the different rocks – sedimentary and oceanic crust for first group, crust/mantle boundary for the second. Those differences make the 50/50 split all the more interesting. I think the 50/50 split must have some real significance regarding mechanism of events since July.

      1. Ahem, no Peter, it was not the percentage split that was what I tried to coax you into betting on. It was as Oldcowboy said, you said it would level off at 2,50e+12.
        Now begs the question, did you accept the bet or..? We need someone BBQ a hat at the Dalek 🙂

        Regarding the split, yes, I think you have something there. What? Well, thars da rubiology as Hamlet never said.

      3. well, I will not sacrifice my oldcowboyhat – but may concider anything else… – luckily I haven’t made any bets yet.

  20. Due to the lack of Seismic activity I do not believe that an eruption at Katla is imminent anymore (although I do understand this can change in an Instant)

    Mind you she will probably prove me wrong, she has in the past! 😛

    1. If Jon says nothing is going on then something is bound to happen – seems to work every time and the weekend is coming 😉

  21. Jón, you have had 1 million individual visits to this page in 1 month.
    If you wrote a book on Icelandic volcanos and safety tips for those who wish to visit it would get published. When you are ready with a rough draft I would happily go and knock in the door at Random House for you.

    1. The volcano has inflated rougly as much as it did in 3 years, but this time just within half a year (!!). Pretty sick statistics considering the fact that the latest eruption was the largest in many many years.

    2. Eh…
      That is not Grimsvötn proper that is inflating. It cannot be. Grimsvötn GPS:es are on the Nunatak southwest of Grimsvötn Caldera.
      Notice that it was pushed to the south during the inflation before.
      The last inflation was to the northwest of the GPS.
      This inflation is to the southwest, probably in the southwestern caldera.
      http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/vatnajokulsvoktun/Vatnajokull_enska.jpg

      That southern caldera of Grimsvötn is associated with the last fissure swarm eruption. It is believed that the caldera itself subsided into existance during the last rifting fissure eruption of Grimsvötn.

      This is purely hyptohetical:
      The inflation is either taking place in the caldera associated with the 1783 rifting eruption, possibly combined with hard filling of the Thordarhyrna volcano.
      Thordarhyrna shares a mechanical connection with both Grimsvötn and Hamarinn, and lies partly within the fissure swarm of Grimsvötn. There is also som theories regarding there being a fissure swarm connection also to Hamarinn.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thordarhyrna

      Regardless of Thordarhyrna and Laki, it is not good with such a violent and uncharacteristic inflation at a volcano of Grimsvötns stature. Since this part is not associated with an eruption for either 238 or 101 years (Lakí and Thordarhyrna respectively) the potential for an even larger eruption than the last (VEI-4) is considerable.

      1. I forgot to say this.
        The lack of earthquakes during such an impressive inflation (50mm north and 75mm up) in one month is a tell-tale of it being associated with the dead zone.

      2. Why would it be there then? Wouldn’t there to be expected some earthquakes in this zone (Eldherad)?

      3. The fissure swarm should be quiet all the way to the magma-reservoir.
        But the main reason for it being aseismic is that is most likely only ice causing the GPS going like crazy.

  25. So, the tremor is increasing again because of Bob – the vent is closing but lava is seeking its way up, am i right?

    Thanks for your blog Jon!

  27. @All:
    While rummaging through the various GPS:y pages I have on hand for Iceland I came upon one place in Iceland that almost made me poop my pants.

    Yes, we do have our little Theistareykjarbunga that has a hard uplift episode. Grimsvötn is uplifting hard to, and Katla is slowly but majestically lifting up. Hekla is filled to the brim and have stoped going up. Then we have Krisuvik that is also bopping up steadily.

    But what I never expected to find, and this is really scary, is that Hengill is has lifted up 6cm in one year.
    Why is this scary?
    1. Idiots pumping into it for one…
    2. Hengill has had the fourth largest eruption in historic times in Iceland. In order of size only Bardarbunga (Veidivötn), Theistareykjarbunga (shield volcano) and Grimsvötn (Lakí) had had larger eruptions if you count lava-amounts.
    3. This is the second known episode of root-filling that is known.
    4. I am starting to wonder if all of those bloody quakes at Hengill really are from pumping operations…

    Seriously, I am wondering if I will have to send an apologize to Helisheidarvirkjun about me stating that they are causing all the quakes. I still think they cause some of them, but I do not any longer believe they cause all of them.
    But, they should stop any thoughts of carbofracking and IDDP is definitly a nogo. Hengill is waking up, and that would be quickly.
    Mohalsdal GPS
    http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/~sigrun/MOHA.png
    Lambatangi 40mm up and and horizontal movements that only can be created by Hengill Proper.
    http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/~sigrun/LAMB.png

    Irpsit, take out an insurance on your house.

    1. Have you seen any harmonics there lately? I thought I spotted some possible ones, but they always coincided with storms, so I didn’t really believe it.

      2. Hmm…. how would you tell?

        Maybe the biggest problem with the pumping is that it’s masking almost all the useful indicators of a run-up to eruption. Perhaps they could be persuaded to stop for a few months and see whether the quakes and tremors carry on..?

      3. Jon, Carl, or anyone else with experience, I know it is impossible to tell when a volcano is going to erupt (almost) But could you give me a rough guestimate of when you think Hengill could erupt based on the current uplift. Im sure a few other people would also like to know! 😉

      4. Móhalsdalur is just behind (to the northwest) of Seltún, one of the high temperature areas of the Krýsuvík volcanic system. And the lake, you can see on the photo is not Þingvallavatn, but Kleifarvatn, so this would be like 50 km to the southwest of Hengill with another volcanic system (Brennisteinsfjöll) in between.

        See this link, i.e. map p. 3 (kerfid = system) http://notendur.hi.is/oi/Nemendaritgerdir/2007%20-%20Reykjanesskagi-natturusaga%20og%20eldvorp.pdf

        Trölladyngjakerfið = Krýsúvík volcanic system, it’s also called Trölladyngja volcanic sytem after the big shield volcano belonging to it.

        There has been a lot of activity lately at Krýsúvík and around Kleifarvatn (http://www.visir.is/jardedlisfraedingur–ef-thetta-er-kvika-tha-er-thetta-eitthvad-nytt/article/2011110229064) and Páll Einarsson, one of the best renowned geologists of Iceland, prognostizised that there could be an eruption on Reykjanes peninsula in the near future. http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2011/10/13/ber_sjukdomseinkenni_eldgosa/

        Hengill had anyway an uplift period around 1994-1998 http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/skyrslur/contgps/node18.html, and earthquake swarms have happened also after that period rather frequently in the area.

      5. Inbetween what? Both the location Lambafell as Mohalsadalur is located at Krysuvik, far away from Hengill.

      6. Brennisteinsfjöll are a volcanic system in between Krýsuvík / Trölladyngja volcanic system (to the southwest of them with the a.m. stations) and Hengill volcanic system (to the northeast), the system Carl was talking about.

      7. Yepp the exact same system. Technically it is a part of the Hengill western fissure swarm. Some count it as a separate volconic system, and some as a part of Hengill in the same way as Bardarbunga and Hamarinn is connected.
        I am of the connection conviction.
        The value of Mohalsdalur uplift and motion corresponds to the motion of the Hengill Helisheidar GPS. It does not correspond to the halted motion of Krysuvik.

    2. The difference in size between Grimsvötn and Eyjafjallajökull is quite notable. One understands how both can be VEI-4s even though Grimsvötn erupted much shorter time.

      1. Yes, I wonder if it will be changed later, but they are saying in the land of tweets that its the biggest they’ve felt, and that was before it was listed on the IGN charts.

  31. And a swarm is about to start at Katla volcano. Tremor pulse can be seen on God Tremor Chart 11min median.

    1. After seeing that higher qualite video I am not sure that there are two large boulders sticking up out of the water. Somebody should call the state of Colorado, someone stole Boulder.

  34. Enrique of AVCAN saw it coming, he wrote last night:
    “Actualidad Volcánica de Canarias (AVCAN) Maria Angeles, fijate si se repite la historia que hay que hacerse la siguiente pregunta:

    ¿Por que la curva o evolución de las energias sismicas liberadas acumuladas da un salto cada 40-48h desde el dia 29 de Noviembre, un patrón que no acabo de entender la causa?… por cierto este último sismo tocaba en este patrón y faltaria el segundo moderado, ya que van de dos en dos, y que seria para eso de las 12.00- 01:30h de la madrugada de esta noche… veremos que pasa, pero desde luego es un patrón increible para la curva de energias., que por cierto estos últimos 4 días tiende a relajarse, pues está decayendo.(Enrique)

    http://www.avcan.org/sismica/graficas/G615.jpg?t=1320958440
    http://www.avcan.org/sismica/graficas/G615.jpg?t=1320958440
    http://www.avcan.org

    Translation:
    Maria Angeles, see if history repeats itself one should ask the following question:

    Why the curve or evolution of cumulative seismic energy released jumps every 40-48h since the date of November 29, a pattern of which I can not understand the cause? … certainly this last earthquake fell into this pattern and we’d miss here the second moderate, as they go in pairs, that one would be the one of 12.00-h 1:30 am tonight … we’ll see what happens, but therefore it is an incredible pattern for the power curve.that certainly over the last 4 days tended to relax, so, it is declining. (Enrique)

  35. Referring to the 4.6 quake at El Hierro. It was also felt on the other islands people in AVCAN FB say.

  36. Level off at 2,50e+12?
    Ahem… Hihi…
    3,1e+12 and counting…
    I think I will go and design a meat hat for someone. I think I will name the modell the GaGa-D’Luxe.
    Sorry Peter, just couldn’t shut up.

  38. We have been kicking scaremongerers, religious lunatics, 2012ers, conspirationalists and various other nutcases in the gonads quite a lot lately.
    So I thought I would go looking for their Fabled planet of Nibiru for them. You know the planet that according to them hides mysteriously behind Jupiter. The best part of Nibiru followers is that their belowed planet comes complete with a brown dwarf that is going to rip the earth apart. 🙂
    I looked, and I actually found Nibiru:
    http://i41.tinypic.com/65pogg.jpg

    Where did I find it? Well I found it hiding behind my AutoCAD and 3D-Studio Max… That is a CAD representation of a planet where the volcanos won based on som nifty modelling. I am actually a bit proud of my latest pet project, making really weird and useless things with AutoCAD.
    Now I am off to bed.

  39. I wonder why, for most Canarian quakes, EMSC puts a lower depth. Only because this is the first automatic and unrevised measurement?

    1. There was a comment on AVCAN of some reacue worker who said that it showed up less deep on some stations… we’ll wait.

  41. Global Incident Map lost the EMSC feed, drat.

    I know you guys like to say that you can’t correlate earthquakes to the cosmos, that all is random, but there is something called cause-and-effect. So, I am not so quick to dismiss every new theory as quackery. We don’t know enough about any one thing.

    I am watching a line of earthquakes march across the United States. I have watched earthquake activities for years, and I have never seen this before. I thought, “Next I’ll see an Atlantic eathquake apart from all the usual suspects,” and sure enough, there appeared a small one off the coast of Canada. It’s like a ripple, heading toward the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Maybe there’ll be another in sequence, maybe there won’t–but you can’t blame me for being fascinated, and watching…and waiting…to see what happens next.

    This volcano and earthquake blog is utterly fascinating. If I had the power, I’d save all the fish that have died, but since I don’t, might as well study it. I have learned a lot from this blog, and not just about the volcano!

    We have oceanic sedimentary volcanoes nearby, which for years, I thought were “cement” volcanoes. How embarrassing!

  42. Looks like I finished the first set of data grunging just in time to fit the topic of discussion.

    @Son de Bueu says:

    “To Lurking… I had a job to you.

    I will like to see a graphic that relates the index for each day with earthquake-activity
    September max: from 10-14 and from 24 to 30

    October max: 9-11 and 23-29

    November, max today 10, andl 21-27 ”

    After some gnashing of teeth over data accessibility, Son de Bueu came through with a link to usable data.

    I haven’t run the quake count comparisons, but I did run some magnitude comparisons. This is the result of that.

    About the tide data. It took a few hours, but I was able to put together the one hour tide levels over the period from 28 August 2011 to 1 January 2012. I then fit a cubic spline at 30 second intervals. (a cubic spline fits a curve that matches the provided points and fills in the gaps in the data)

    Exporting that to a flat file, I then took the time-stamp for the quake and looked up the water level at that moment… within about 30 seconds.

    Plotting magnitude to water level yields this:

    http://i43.tinypic.com/4jmgjo.png

    Don’t get your hopes up, looking at it from perspective view shows this:

    http://i41.tinypic.com/2rr8l8h.png

    They seem to be concentrating in at specific water level ranges because the tide heights change over time:

    http://i40.tinypic.com/ml5xmb.png

    1. The first picture looks like a hole made by shotgun. So, nothing there… If you had seen somthing there, I would have been worried. Why? I know, volcanic forces are way much stronger than the weight of a few km (plus or minus a few meters) of water..

    2. You’d probably have more luck trying to plot against earth tides, having said that I expect no noticeable correlation.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_tide

      I’d be interested to see a bar chart of water height frequency vs. earthquake frequency, it’s quite hard to make sense of the first plot since there is no data about how common a certain water level was during the period. I still think it’s an exercise in futility though, and would much prefer to see more 3d models of surface deformation and earthquake depth.

      There’s a few good articles out on the net about human pattern recognition and why we see patterns where there are none.

      Remember folks, good science is something which is testable, repeatable, observable and falsifiable.

      1. I would though remind that one important thing is to keap an open mind and test ideas. More than one surprising thing has been discovered by testing things that first seemed like “nah, not likely”.
        So it is good to test things like this, discover that it was nothing, and then move on.
        What I am waiting for is that we get a LIGO-event. For those who do not know what LIGO is, it is an observatory that is observing gravitational waves. Theoretically there should be quite a lot of those, problem is just that we have not seen one (yet). Be that as it may. But, if we see a gravitational wave that has a bit of force I would love to see a world quake plot against the gravitational wave. Do I think we will see something spectacular? No, but just a few percent increase in quakes corresponding in time against the gravitational wave would be nifty. Then we would just have to wait for N = 100 gravitational waves before being fairly sure.

        Scientists are like a million blind bats, sometimes they shit on something that is made out of gold.

      2. Day, evening, night – now early in the morning. You are to become a stabilizing element of our lives. When things go wild and we get stuck in a piece of word or whatever, we just have to click in here and get refreshed by your delicate mix of knowledge and madness. We will have to find a way to guarantee you never stop now we have become addicts… 🙂
        Not to be taken serious, just the loco way to wish a good start in the day…

      3. Do not expect to see me write often at this ungodly hour. Mornings and me are not on a friendly footing at best of times.
        Just getting ready to go to Heathrow so I could go back home, there are rumours of cold clear air and no rain at home… 🙂

      4. Good Morning GeoLoco 🙂 Today is Friday:) I have never considered that my madness could ever be delicate 🙂 mind you my knowledge is definitely delicate….teetering on the brink of blondness at times (No offence to blondes….I am one and love the silliness I can blame on my hair colour. It has got me out of a few embarrassing situations ) 🙂

      5. You guys are just perfect. In 30 years, when I will enjoy retirement (yes, we work quite a long time – at least more than the greeks… :-)), I will have the link to this mad bunch among the favorites in my brain-integrated chip and we can constantly exchange the delicate side of rough thinking.
        I already hear you Di – in 30 years, as I’m not 20 anymore… BS – we’ll have found a way to conserve you. Is a cucumber glass ok for you, or do you prefer some kind of stylish aquarium? Those who want to contribute for that please tell me. I might open a page with a donation-button to realize this physics-breaking project.
        Carl, the first 2 hours of the working day are just wonderful to me. After an hour of driving that is much easier with less traffic, I’m alone in the office and can work – as for the rest of the day I have to disturb my colleagues with cheap jokes, this is the only way to be sort of efficient…

      6. Nah, I saunter in at lunch, then go for a lunch meeting, then I have meetings all afternoon, then I sit in splendid isolation working untill late.
        The only 2 exceptions are when I am flying (sleep on the plane) and the LME morning ring when I feel like making a commotion, but normally I never attend those to the utmost joy of everybody else.

      7. That plot will come later. Probably tomorrow.

        I don’t have this version of the El Hierro quake spreadsheet set up for binning yet.

        And no, I don’t see a correlation at all.

        As for Earth Tides… um… you do realize why the water level changed right? That is unless you are referring to something on a grander and more diffuse realm.

        As Jack has pointed out, there is not a lot of pressure change from the water. Correction, it’s even less than that.

        One additional meter of water is the same as raising the pressure on a 20 km deep magma complex by 0.000308%

        Papers have actually been written on this subject. Since the idea came up, I figured it would be fun to look at from the actual data point of view.

        Just guessing here, but I imagine that the systems affected by tide variation are probably those with rather shallow magma complexes and that have a cumulative force from the tides affecting it… like squeezing a zit. In that scenario, the “chamber” would probably have to be high enough for the lateral “impact” force of the tide to get to it. Water does have inertia and if you get enough of it hitting an expansive coastline on a volcanic system… you might be able to see something.

        I still don’t think it has merit, but I don’t usually shy away from looking to see for myself. I’ll run the binning tomorrow since I don’t have anything else scheduled. (most of the sites I deal with are shut down anyway)

        Meanwhile… here is the Mag 4.6 as seen by seismic station IU:MACI.

        http://i42.tinypic.com/110m738.png

      8. 0.000308% -> roughly 528.776 MPa vs 528.774 MPa

        Something easily lost in rounding errors.

      9. Thats what I get for being in a hurry.

        Earth “tide.”

        I’ve done that plot. Sun-Moon positions vs world wide quake count over 1975 to 2010. (Mag 4.5+).

        Nothing there.

  43. Good morning 🙂
    I have looked and looked at your latest plot Lurking and I cannot make any sense from it. There again I am not the world’s best interpreter of plots.
    Checking on Iceland as usual this morning I think Krokottuvotn is looking distinctly active again.
    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/kvo.gif
    As the winds in this area are reportedly light this morning then I am sure this activity is magma related.
    I know there are human activities in this area but the plots do not show particularly regular, mechanical type peaks.
    Katla is maybe preparing for her Friday night Party just to remind us she is there.
    I wonder if there is to be any fracking at Hengil again this week end?

      2. Found this comment in a blog from October 2010:
        Krokkuvotn is just north of the lake Myvatn. It is close to the Krafla volcano.

    2. Not really a whole lot of sence to make from it. It was quake magnitude vs the tide level (ocean). The color denoted time.

      It was a quick check to see if there was sometng there. There wasn’t.
      Next I’ll peice together the data as requested. I don’t think there will be anything there either, but that’s not gonna stop me from looking.

      1. I’d like to see the plot done on quake energy release vs. tide height. That would really tell us, who’s driving who.

      3. I’m not seeing anything that has changed (sorry for my bad spanish). Can you explain to me what you see?

        Me no vida una cambio (lo siento por mi espanol malo). Puedes tu me lo explica que tu vidas?

      4. I think she saw that the tremor is lowest and she asked what does it mean. It is a suposition.

    3. I actually checked with Kraflavirkjun. There is no correspondence with any of their activities. All of their operations has been running 24/7 during the last months without anything that should have caused that.
      I kind of got the feeling that they are a bit mystified about what it could be. They just reiterated the standard IMO message. “Kraflas rifting episode is over for this cycle. Therefore there will be no eruption at Krafla.”
      Personally I think this is one instance where IMO, might be wrong. I know that they are experts, and the best there is. But their official statements seems to be a bit to certain, I just hope that they are not over-looking things out of this.

      But there seems to be magmatic movement, we have had a few wet quakes over at the old Kraflafires field, so I would say that it is not totally impossible.
      And I have a statistical problem with IMOs statement. And that is that we are still close enough to the Kraflafires that if an eruption happened it would just be a statistical outlayer of the the eruption swarm.

      What I would love to have is GPS, and tiltometric data. I do not have GPS data for the site, but there is a GPS network there, and there at least used to be a water-tiltometer there during the Kraflafires.

      If an eruption would happen it would be a rifting fissure eruption of low VEI-number, 2 should be maximum. There would first be a moderate quake-swarm comparable to a what we see now at Katla, then follows very hard harmonic tremoring as magma rushes into the fissure swarm, then the fissure opens up. It would be a nice tourist volcano, nothing else.

      But with only harmonic data to go from, I would say Krafla is gearing up for an eruption, but I could be very wrong.

      1. Thanks for that comment Carl. It allows me to believe in my observations again 🙂 At least I feel I have not made a dumb comment 🙂

  44. Apparently a swedish tourist has gotten lost on Solheimajökull. Reports say he managed to call in to the emergency services on wednesday saying he was cold and didnt know where he was.

    Hopefully they will find him alive..

    1. If you read up the blog post you will find this has already been mentioned. And as Carl was saying he has a feeling it’s his lawyers son… 🙁

      2. Oh! that’s one bit of good news on here … but he is still some one’s son 🙁

    1. Hau and Saurbaer is the best. But they are not really that good. I would say that Jóns Helicorder will prove to be vastly better. But I do not know how long that will survive and eruption…

  46. It seem the scientific community are arguing again:

    The volcanic crisis that shakes the island of El Hierro yesterday shook the offices of scientific institutions that monitor the output of the magma, in one episode of the escalation of disagreements between researchers and administrations by the technical management of this trance. Yesterday, when it was a month of eruption, the Centro Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC) organised a meeting between scientists from institutions with competences on volcanic risk for pooling official data collected by the Committee of crisis that coordinates from El Hierro the Canary Islands Government. A meeting that has sat as a salt in the open wound of the scientific bodies of the archipelago, which from the outset have been neglected by researchers of the CSIC and of the national geological Institute (IGN), designated as official technical advisers of the Committee of crisis (Pevolca).

    The director of the Agency Canaria on research, innovation and information society (Aciisi), Juan Ruiz Alzola, yesterday sent a letter of protest to the President of the CSIC, Rafael Rodrigo, with copy to the Secretary of State for research, Philippe Pétriz, in which criticized the holding of this meeting because it involves pooling these data among a small group of scientists, and out of the body expressly created to coordinate these data. On 21 October the Canarian Government created a Scientific Committee that would serve to improve relations between all the agencies involved, to share the collected data and build bridges between Madrid and the Canary Islands. The Chairperson of this Committee, Andrea Brito, described the call of the CSIC’s “unfortunate, the less” since there is already a body, which she chairs, to carry out this work coordinated knowledge of the different areas involved in the management of earthquake and volcanic crisis. “One thing is to make a work-shop between scientists on a subject and another thing is to discuss on the management that he is doing from the Pevolca, when there is already a group created to this end, in which the own CSIC is represented,” he regretted Brito, Director of the Instituto Tecnológico de Canarias (ITC).

    At the end of the meeting on the campus of the Council, his Vice-President, Francisco Montero de Espinosa, was convinced that “it is inconceivable that there are conflicts” by a scientific meeting. According to the Vice-Chairman of the CSIC, dealt with “only” a meeting between experts to “make recommendations” and denied that there would be as a group with the capacity to make decisions. Even so, he left the door open to the call for further meetings of this group, if they changed the circumstances, to update its recommendations. Espinosa Montero said that he would call during the morning Andrea Brito “by an institutional detail, although it would not necessarily do so, to share with her conclusions”.

    The meeting convened by the Council was reached three conclusions. For starters, the Group of experts claimed will install more instrumentation in the North of the island to hear accurately tremor signal and discard that it should open a fissure in the area of El Hierro which volcanic material by a second focus is releasing. In addition, requested that further collecting material eruptive for your analysis.And finally, they claimed the Instituto Spanish of Oceanography (IEO) keep there shifted to the oceanographic vessel Ramon Margalef, sent to El Hierro at the request of the Government of the Canary Islands.

    His idea is that the vessel continue making maps of seabed to follow the evolution of the volcano. “Researchers call to one or two bathimetrys per week, as that is concerned that the volcanic cone grows toward waters shortly deep, which could lead to an explosive eruption”, explains Espinosa Montero who acknowledged that this proposal, as the previous ones, is not more than a suggestion that would have to be studied by the IEO.

    This gathering of experts highlighted that he remains the deformation in the North of the island, up to 40 millimeters of warpage, which could indicate the existence of magma pressing to leave for a new Northern fissure. “Also could stay this way forever”, explained the Vice-President of the CSIC, who pointed out that the majority of the experts present considered unlikely a second eruption under the waters of the Gulf.

    In addition, was in common the result of the analysis of eruptive processes on El Hierro in the past 2,000 years. “According to this documentation”, explained Espinosa Montero, “everything points to that the eruptive process is running out given the amount of magmatic material that has already expelled the volcano”.

    The meeting of the CSIC was attended by representatives of 11 scientific institutions; two Canary Islands, the University of La Laguna (ULL) and the oceanic platform of the Canary Islands (Plocan).Of these 11 institutions, six belong to the Coordinating Committee created by the Canary Islands, as IGN, own CSIC, the geological and mining (IGME) and the Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO), the Plocan and ULL. The Committee also with experts from the University of Las Palmas and the Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (Involcan).

    A suspended meeting
    The Canarian Committee had missed with an El tropezón. “The first meeting of this group in order to be set up and approve its rules of operation, November 3, had to be suspended because missed the representative of the CSIC, Joan Martí, by a prior commitment, and IGN, María José Blanco, who had to leave the meeting after aggravating the situation in El Hierro. “”It was difficult to take decisions if we could not count on the Pevolca,” says Brito, so a second meeting was convened to November 14, which yesterday continued on foot and without that no one would have announced their absence.

    On the other hand, the Involcan made public yesterday about new data indicating that you could be cooking is a new eruptive phase, that there was a new peak of CO2 emissions, that so far it has proved to be a signal nearly infallible to announce eruptions.In addition, the IEO detailed in the calm sea, which hosts the volcano within it, is coming to measure temperatures up to 16 degrees above normal records (15 degrees Celsius to 31 degrees). Levels of acidity of the water are still very high, with a ph of 5,45 (normal is 8) and a concentration of 100,000 times higher than normal acids.

    http://www.publico.es/ciencias/406318/guerra-civil-por-la-gestion-cientifica-de-el-hierro

    If this is too long to post, someone please let me know and in future I’ll just post the link..thanks

    1. ps: Is 11 different institutions a normal amount to have for dealing with the current situation in El Hierro?

      1. In Iceland we have two different institutions to deal with earthquakes and volcano eruptions. But if we have to it is possible to add two others institutions into the evacuations stage if needed.

      2. But Iceland has around 320.000 inhabitants whereas Spain has about 47 million.

        Nevertheless, are coordination problems of this kind very embarassing and especially so in a crisis situation.

      3. I have no idea whether or not 11 different institutions is normal. But bickering institutions and a wobbly volcano don’t make a good mix.

        I just hope that AVCAN, IGN and Pevolca don’t “over consult” and confuse / delay the real decisions that need to be taken over evacuation. Because El Hierro is not going to wait for a committee.

      4. Over consult or over insult?

        You can’t organise a meeting of minds and them tell the minds that their ideas are invalid/unwanted/wrong. You can disagree, but respectfully and that is what seems to be missing. The fact that the press is now involved only makes matters worse because it gives all parties a chance to sling mud.

        This is not a schoolyard game designed to boost egos. These are real people who are being affected daily and they need to remember that.

        They should put a sign up on the door for their meeting of 14th November requesting that overinflated egos be left at the door.

      6. Slinging mud is a national sport in Spain. Politics they call it as well. As a sport it is even bigger than ‘futbol’ (soccer, football). It pervades all levels of official life in Spain, and the people are always the losers.

      7. It’s quite normal to have several institutions with different areas of expertise that work together to resolve a problem or a crisis. That’s actually a good sign. But obviously, the CSIC and IGN need to do better job at coordinating the bunch of experts.

    2. Well… that explains the lack of publicly availble chemical analysis and the hosility towards the selling of “cocoanuts.” They are stuck with a feifdom mentality.

      Got to protect that research turf.

      1. All I see is a boondoggle over who can predict the future. They should know by now exactly what they’re going to do to evacuate. I suspect, they’ll keep arguing until it blows (or not). Then, they’ll say, “Well, I told you so. What do we do now?”

        Well, maybe they have a plan, but I think the bloggers would have said that they have had advice. I see a tremendous amount of disbelieve and denial.

        It’s about 4 hrs RT to the nearest island. How many people can fit in a single boat? How many trips? I want to see naval vessels on standby. Is the Spanish navy nearby?

        Also, hats off to those islanders who devised a way to replace missing income. Can’t keep good people down.

  48. http://www.hierroendirecto.movistar.es/

    This one is working….. And a double eruption is now expected on land and sea….

    11/11/2011 @ 14:23 – The director of the National Geographic Institute has said that they are expecting a possible double eruption to the north of El Hierro both underwater and on land, according to the latest data available to them.

    11/11/2011 @ 13:58 – Scientists advise that the probability of a new eruption to the north of El Hierro has increased. A new underwater eruption is predicted to the north of El Hierro, in an area known as ‘El Golfo’

  50. Looked like there was a small earthquake shaking the camera at 14:19 camera time. The image got very wobbly.

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