Posted on by Jón Frímann

Daily Bárðarbunga update on 16-September-2014

This is the current status of Bárðarbunga volcano. This information might get outdated quickly if anything major happens. They are good now.

Currant status of Bárðarbunga volcano at 13:47 UTC

  • There is now one month since activity started in Bárðarbunga volcano. Around 20.000 earthquakes have been detected in this one month. Normal quiet year in Iceland has around 12.000 earthquakes. There have been around 229 earthquakes larger than magnitude 3,0. Almost all of them have taken place in Bárðarbunga volcano and in the ring fault that has formed.
  • It is expected that rift episode that is now taking place north of Bárðarbunga is going to last for months. So it is important to be patience when waiting for nature to do its thing.
  • Bárðarbunga volcano caldera is currently dropping around 50cm/day. That might change without warning.
  • The eruption in Holuhraun is ending slowly. It is expected that it is going to end in next few days. This does not mean the eruption is over, it means there is now increased risk of new eruption along the dyke. There is high risk of any new eruption taking place under the glacier. Since most of the dyke is under the Vatnajökull glacier.
  • ESA has interesting article about the SO2 pollution here.
  • Largest earthquake today had the magnitude 4,8 at 10:36 UTC. It is the largest earthquake so far. Second largest earthquake took place at 09:13 UTC and had the magnitude of 3,6.
  • Harmonic tremor data suggest that pressure might be increasing again inside Bárðarbunga volcano system. That is not good news and might start an eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera.
  • Rifting episode has not yet started south of Bárðarbunga volcano. When that is going to start I do not know. I do however expect it to happen soon, so there is risk of eruption both north and south og Bárðarbunga, along with eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano it self. This does not mean that all areas are going to erupting at the same time, that might happen in some cases.

Update at 21:42 UTC

  • Largest earthquake so far is a magnitude 5,2 that took place at 14:47 UTC. More earthquakes have been taking place in the last hour, but there magnitude has not been confirmed yet.

No other updates at present time. I will add new updates as needed.

Still more on comments

Please keep off-topic discussion to a minimal amount (if you really have to go off-topic). This is not the website to talk about religion or politics. There is plenty of space to that elsewhere on the internet. So please keep your comment on-topic. Also remind people to be nice to each other. I will add repeated offenders to the “your comment go directly to the spam bin” list. I have to have some control over the comment. Since the eruption and activity in Bárðarbunga volcano is going to last for several months.

I also suggest to people to take it easy. Nature is going to do its thing in Bárðarbunga volcano in its own time and way. There is nothing we can do about it, expect maybe get the hell out of the way if you are so unlucky to be close to Bárðarbunga volcano when it starts erupting.

Article updated at 21:45 UTC.

383 Replies to “Daily Bárðarbunga update on 16-September-2014”

  1. Thanks again Jon, the caldera does seem to be coming closer, although is that hours, days or weeks we’ll just have to wait and see.

    I (facetiously) wanted to point out that there is a definite correlation between the number of off-topic religious, political and tidal comments on your blog and the severity of the eruption, so I really think we should consider whether or not your blog has a serious detrimental effect on the magnitude of geologic events in Iceland, and perhaps the world.

    In other words, True True Unrelated. 🙂

    1. This end of the world people love this type of thing taking place. They really do, they want the worst to happen to full-fill there own prophecy on the subject. Don’t worry, nature is going to disappoint them every time.

      I am prepared to deal with this. But it is a bit difficult for me to read every comments that comes in. Since not all people start with doomsday comments when I approve them. They start often later on.

      1. Hi Jon! Excellent blog and superb job. I do not usually comment, but this time it seems to be calling for the comment. Being a chaote lonewolf with cuantifiable successes (http://foro.elmonasterio.org/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=3812) I dare to trace similarities between the Bardarbunga volcano eruption and the current state of the Ebola pandemic (http://www.infowars.com/computer-models-tell-us-that-this-ebola-pandemic-could-soon-kill-millions/) Mother nature has taken control, and there is nothing we can do to modify the situation. Just sit back and observe.
        I have been following your blog since the beginning (of the Bardarbunga volcanic actvity) and I do really appreciate your personal opinions and views.

      2. Redirect the to the ebola or MERS crises.

        As for ‘tidal effects’, it’s hard to imagine that they don’t play a dominant role in Icelandic volcanism. No, I don’t mean the cyclical up/down gravitational flux. Rather the tidal “forces” that describe the breathing like inflation/deflation of a caldera, or tidal ebb and flow of shear strain running along a rift fault.

        Yes ‘tide’ is a general term which makes for confusion but also is useful to tag for ‘biased application of effect applied in unison over an extensive interval’. For example, your own comments regarding Bardarbunga’s decay pertain to a single tidal surge.

      3. Well said. I am following one such thread on a “conspiracy site” where every tiny bit of “news” is quoted without source and taken out of context to sound like the end of the world, complete with multiple exclamation marks for good affect!!!! I politely refuted a claim that the entire northern hemisphere need to urgently buy gas masks and was banned within 10 minutes. It is bad that they make comments that they themselves do not understand, simply because it sounds doomish and might scare people. Such a shame they do not with to entertain sensible discussion with people who are more informed, yet encourage silly statements such as “iceland is about to be wiped off the map”. Keep up your good rational work.

  2. The proportion of quakes during this active period of one month versus the yearly average is astounding. I’ve been quiet, but actively observing. Thank you for your continued updates. I wait patiently, but also captivated for what happens next…

  4. Hi Jon. Congratulations for your work. It is absolutely amazing what you are doing here.
    Do you still defend that BB caldera will erupt? Is it certain for you?
    If so, what is your view on how big this could end? Let’s say that BB caldera will go full steam eruption. What would be the VEI of this eruption in your opinion?
    Theological issues aside, in the previous post there was a person that said that BB could have two magma chambers? What is your opinion on this one? Is this even possible?

    Best regards,
    Draco

    PS: Please, keep up this amazing blog. I’m keen to learn whatever i can about volcanoes.

    1. The Upper magma chamber is the ‘main’ chamber, the lower one is basically an upwelling of the asthenosphere which feeds the upper chamber with fresh core magma if the pressure conditions permit it to do so.

      Regards eruption in B, there is no way of forecasting what the final instalment will be in this unprecedented series of events. The activity under Vatnajökull glacier is over such a large area. It may not be B that goes, it may be Grimsfjall or just another subglacial fissure as Jon says.

      Read his header to all these sections, he basically answers all your questions there. Don’t live in fear of a cataclysmic event, you are more likely to be run over by a car or be terminally ill. It may not happen at all, just like the fabled 2012 ‘non’ event.

  5. Oh, so the shine behind the steam is the river and that is where the lava meets. Fascinating!

  6. hey ther is the volcano going to have a larger eruption after the caldera haas collapsed ? iv heard rumors of the entier bardarbunga mountain might collapse but iv dont belive em keep on updating so i can update my school =) love this sort of info

    1. Calderas erupt in the process of collapsing. Gaps are torn open and you drive a huge slab of rock down into the magma chamber, which then behaves like if you throw a bowling ball into a pool.

      Collapse is also normally *driven* by eruptions in that the initial void to incite the collapse is created by magma erupting from the chamber. Bardarbunga is much more complicated than that.

      So a caldera will involve an eruption. It is just a question of how big.

    2. No one can know what will happen after the Caldera collapse, or how far it will collapse. The maximum diameter of the collapse would be 10km. I don’t expect it will all collapse though.

  7. Hi Jon, thanks so much for the updates, really interesting reading! I’m a total newbie but I’ve been lurking the past few days, as I’m supposed to be flying to Reykjavik on Thursday for a weeklong trip to visit a friend. I’m getting worried about the volcano and it would be really inconvenient for me to get stuck in Iceland, so I’m considering canceling the trip. I know it’s impossible to predict what’s going to happen, but if you were in my position, would you cancel? Thanks, and hope this isn’t too off-topic!
    – Sini

  8. Harmonics really settling down today. Ebb phase. Noticed that the river, center cam 1, not really flowing too much today.

    Have a question. At what wind speeds does the harmonic charts start becoming effected, and at what frequency level(s)?

    2. I particularly like the photo with the landrovers, giving a scale to the eruption. Thank you for sharing your website.

      2. This eq is not possible to be 4.2 …

        If the seismograph has the same scale, the older 4.8 from this morning is little at this side.

    2. EMSC sure got it wrong.

      Notice that these bigger quakes are tending to be more towards the center of the caldera (less than 5km), and not on the rim area as much.

  11. Nice to see a quiet morning. Looks like the EQ activity is down today, but there is deeper activity, so perhaps the volcanic plumbing is being recharged. The IMO graphs still show harmonic tremor at Kreppahraun so this is not over. Grimsfjall shows some hint of harmonic tremor but it seems to be steady to slowing. Nevertheless there is lots of crustal deformation.

    Bardarbunga has also had a larger quake deep below the caldera and some bits of activity that indicate continued unrest. The caldera GPS shows some pretty impressive swings – mostly down but the occasional 40cm rapid uplift – which is very impressive considering the size of the caldera.

    1. The swings on GPS plots are not real. They area instrinsic GPS error. There is no real sudden uplifts taking place.

      1. Are you sure about that?

        I thought the plots had 30 minute and 180 minute averages to smooth out the GPS fluctuations which are seen in the grey minute plot. The 30 minute average plot shows movement which is substantial vis a vis the one minute plot.

      2. I miss-typed:) The 30 minute plot smooths out the 1 minute GPS fluctuations which are very large in both directions. Therefore I deduce that the 30 minute average shows actual movement which is smoothed out by the 180 minute.

  12. Thanks for the update Jon as informative as ever. I really worry for the safety of the Icelanders and even though the authorities have been remarkably reticent – for obvious economic reasons – I sincerely hope that procedures for their protection are in place.

    1. They are not reticent all plans will be in place. But what can they do? .they have to wait and see like the rest of us

    2. Exactly! I think the same. To me this seems a very dangerous hesitation of the Icelandic government to take measures to protect the Icelanders. The situation is atypical and so this should be faced.
      Cheers

  13. Maybe I spoke too soon.

    Big earthquake, but where? Oh … the sad life of an amateur vulcanologist. If its Bardarbunga this could be a bad thing, or maybe it’s just the start of the beginning.

  14. Looking at the plot it was a massive quake. Not unexpected as I commented earlier. I could almost see the tension building today given the constant downward motion and lack of quakes it was almost like the lid got stuck and has suddenly released all that strain.

  15. Another great update Jon, I quite agree with your analogy on people who think this is the end of the world. This could be big, how big nobody knows, yes it will be disruptive and cause some problems, but I think we will get through it. As for these doomsday idiots my advice is just ignore them. At least this site you give a fair balanced analysis.

    1. Just remember End of the World Folks, this is a scientific blog embedded in academia, both of which have complete and utter disdain for escatology or theology and will always make their disdain and sometimes actual hatred for you explicity known. If you end up being right though, woe to them.

  19. Hi Jon just like to add my congratulations on a truly interesting site, I have learned so much about this particular system, which keeps on giving tantalizing information, but still keeps it secrets. I think the fascination is not just in what any eruption may be like, but that we can all see it unfold, and improve our knowledge in the process.
    My main wish is, that if and when, anything big happens, and I really hope it is not too big, that all Icelanders keep safe and out of harms way.
    I read somewhere that we are on this planet with the consent of geology, which can be cancelled at a moments notice. A realization of how small and insignificant we all are, in the face of the power we are now seeing. Love the scientific comments.

  20. Thanks for yet an informative and “kept cool” post Jon. I´m still hoping that Barbarbunga will go back to sleep after she is finish turning and tossing as a result of the plates separating beneath her.

    I know that nobody can foresee what the outcome of this crisis will be – exactly – but I noticed a lot of experts stating that there will be an eruption at BB sooner og later…. Im hoping that later could mean decades or even milleniums from now – even though im fascinated by volcanos and earth in general, I really dont want anything like a big catastrophy to happen – but am fascinated that its getting still more possible to read, understand and foresee eruptions – and also divert lava thats moving to populated/ unwantet places after it has erupted. This saves lives – and it gives us an amazing understanding of mother earths biologi – thanks a lot for giving this knowledge to all of us amateurs – I really appriciate it 😀

    1. OK here’s the problem, Clicked the link , flashes up for a second then displays the error page. No reason I can find for not staying on the correct page.

  26. Jon,

    Been watching your blog along with the webcams for around a month now.
    Daily visitor, sometimes hourly, from the UK.
    Like most people have said here, i’m learning so much from you and the other’s on here.
    I thank you and everyone else for having this public discussion.

    I echo what other’s are also saying, we all like to have something big happen, we all like a good disaster, but i do hope no one becomes victim to this activity.
    Again, big thanks and keep up the updates!

    Quite addicted to this blog 🙂

    1. Another UK reader who’s really appreciative of your blog and enjoying learning a lot more about Icelandic volcanoes!

  28. I like the analogy of bowling ball in a swimming pool but in terms of scale ist it not more like driving a juggernaut lorry into an olimpic swimming pool full of over super fizzed and highly shaken coca cola ? The gas content of this lava is quite high although not as explosive as say Pinatubo. However the glacial water content probably moee than makes up for that. I still say that a few nuclear subs and aircraft carriers would not go amiss for saving lives. Their electric engines would be impervious to the ash.

    1. Magma in volcanoes in subduction zones tends to have a higher silicon content, is thicker, and more commonly erupts explosively. Magma in rift zones tends to be more thinner and less likely to erupt explosively. They tend to be effusive but not explosive. An example of a rift volcano might be Nyiragongo which is almost constantly erupting, is very “gassy” but I can’t recall an explosive eruption there.

      The magma chamber under Bárðarbunga has had a lot of time to mix with remelted crust and evolve a bit. It is likely that the nature of the magma could change as the eruption progresses. It might be a little thicker at first until all that older stuff is erupted out.

  29. I have a child transferring flights in Iceland tomorrow so have been reading your blog intently. Worrying about your kids is normal, but this situation has brought it up a few notches. I was anxious this weekend after your post on the 14th but now feel relieved (sorry Iceland) that this could go on for months. When my child gets home safely, I will still be tuning in to your blog. You got me hooked on Iceland. I can’t wait to visit this beautiful country. Thanks Jon!

  30. Todays GPS movements (red) seem almost as big as the 3 day values(green). The ground is on the move and this time nearly all are away from BB.

      1. Thanks for posting a real picture. Have given up on both Mila cams and streaming video. Way too frustrating

  33. Just a question since it’s already month since the start, what is the current VEI of the Holuhraun eruption, VEI 4? Can it reach VEI 5 in coming month, or even 6 in case of strong explosion in Bardarbunga?

    1. It’s an explosivity index, it is not about lava volume erupted and there are no explosions and no tephra so VEI = 0

      So far.

      1. That’s what’s tricky about VEI! It is expressed as a measure of volume of material expelled, but it is specifically volume of material expelled in an explosive eruption. The largest eruption ever to be estimated (Paraná traps ~130 MYA) produced a volume of lava 2000 times greater than the Yellowstone caldera eruptions, but would still be VEI 0.

        Perhaps there needs to be another term to use that just refers to material expelled, even when non-explosive.

      2. Slight correction to my post above… there would have been individual explosive eruptions that occurred during the formation of the Paraná traps, but these would have their own VEIs associated to the individual explosions. There is no overall index for the total amount of lava released during the trap formation.

        In other words, Bardarbunga will get a VEI if/when it explodes, and that will only include the amount of material expelled during the explosion itself.

  34. I have lost my best link to Bardarbunga. It had the sinking of the caldera measured in cm every minute (plus a 30min and 180min avrage). It was way faster to detect any major eq:s than any other site. Here is the, no longer working, site;

    http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/vatnavakt/bardarbunga/

    Does anyone know why its offline? Has it changed address? If so, where can I find it?

  35. Afternoon everyone!! Watching the webcam and can’t help but notice tiny white caps to the left of r2d2. Any idea what they are?? Maybe steam?? Give me the vague idea of whitecaps on water??

  36. 5.2 is a TNT equivalent of about 10 kilo tons, ie. 64 times smaller than a small H bomb.
    Something bigger is needed for the magma to make real headway.

  37. The height of the Bardarbunga ice surface is 2,000 meters ASL. With an ice thickness of 800 meters, that means the caldera floor is at 1,200 m ASL This is perhaps 200 m higher than the plain upon which Vatnajokull resides.

    If the rock surface of B. subsides 200 m it will be below the surface area of the plain wherein it’s situated. Glacial meltwater will accumulate within the caldera pit itself.

    Does this have anything to do with Jon’s 45 m drop-of-no-return ?

  39. How does vucanologist Ármann Höskuldsson know that the ongoing eruption will end soon?

      1. And by calcuating the lava in the dyke he knows that it will start again at a new location.

      2. Also because he knows that this is at the same time a rifting event like the one at Krafla in the 70s and 80s.

    1. Yes probably. But what i dont understand is why the lava wouldent take the already prepared path. Somone put a plug in the fissure?

  46. Does someone here know what happened around 16:00 today, when some of us thought we saw another eruption fissure/vent / cloud on the webcams? Was it a phreatic explosion?

    1. Are there any images for this 4pm event? Perhaps a visual will prompt a reply. I am also very interested to hear any thoughts on this.

  47. smg has just starting to turn up again, so we’ll see if it keeps the trend going this time.

    Common factor on all the tremor plots is the slight rising trend almost everywhere for the past 7 days.

    1. Seems so, yes. There are two vents now the most active in the center of the fissure. High lava fountains.

      Perhaps not waning at all.

      2. Yes, thanks.
        I would prefer ( I’m God!! 🙂 ) the whole eruption was at rift fault instead main crater…would be less danger, I think…

Comments are closed.