Status update on Askja and Bárðarbunga at 18:35 UTC

110 Replies to “Status update on Askja and Bárðarbunga at 18:35 UTC”

1. Been looking at GPS in a broad area around Vatnajökull. Stations many km’s away are being affected now.
   http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/cgps.html
   Stations west like KIDC, FJOC, and HAUC are moving westward. Stations east like SAUD, BALD, and even HOFN (just starting) are moving eastward. We have a pretty healthy bulge forming here.

   1. Just looked on the net, Hofn is around 119km (73 miles) from Bardabunga as the crow flies!

   2. Yes the crust rift ‘hinges’ open from a point just SW of Bardarbunga (‘B’) towards about 30 degrees NNW, hence the fan of crustal strain delineated by the fan of quakes. I think this hinge is a primary feature of repeated rifting and a rift template that has been replayed many times. This, why Bardarbunga’s exists and persists and erupts in rifting, as it so clearly does, over-topping flooding slops on to terrain below. So I think this will be the major crustal infiltration point (as does Jon, we very much agree on that), just not the only one. But probably the main one, so I regard it as the serious hazard of eruption.

      It’s resume says it is a riff specialist, at crustal repair and re-welding landscapes after rifts pull it apart. So it’s time will come if this goes so far.

2. Dave McGarvie says about the eruption today, that it could be a little sidearm of the dyke:
   https://twitter.com/subglacial/status/505416995849109505

3. Thank you for the continued updates. Keep up the great work.

4. *Note to media bods*

   It would be good if media bods and journos used ANY of Jon’s stuff, or even posts on this forum which he facilitates, for insights and background that they maybe drop the guy a wee financial contribution for his work. It’s the right thing to do 😉

   Peace

   1. I plan to donate! I have since the first time I got information from this blog just 3-4 days ago. I start a new job on Tuesday. As soon as I get paid. I Promise!

5. Jon, have you had a looked at this yet? It puts the question of Bardarbunga source, and fissure swarm deep-source to rest.

   It’s interactive 3D so tilt it around with the mouse and shift-Alt-Ctrl key combinations. Line it up so the view is at 10 km depth level facing E or W, and set it running and watch the emergence of the quakes below the 10 km line.

   You will want to watch it several times, I guarantee you.

   http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/quakes3d/

   1. Guilty. Done it many times. Doing fissure check in the middle of the night, a few hours sleep, long day at work. Brilliant. Again thanks Jon for your work

   2. This is interesting map. I think it just takes to long to run for me. As for earthquakes below 10 km line, that might just be the crust reacting to stress above it or the dyke trying to go deeper into the crust.

      1. No Jon, that model is very clear as to what’s occurring.

         Mechanically, going deeper is doing UP a super steep pressure-density gradient and into a semi-sold or solid material. Can you really take that theory seriously? Where’s the energy needed to push into higher density and higher static pressures to allow any such explanation? It is wrong, it’s not physically possible Jon.

         Looking east 10 km down
         http://i1049.photobucket.com/albums/s396/gogglezon/Deep2_zps6fcddfa7.jpg

         Looking ESE 10 km down
         http://i1049.photobucket.com/albums/s396/gogglezon/Deep_zpse3360462.jpg

         Looking east from 7.5 km down
         http://i1049.photobucket.com/albums/s396/gogglezon/SwarmQuakes_zps79e00ba4.jpg

         Bardarbunga – looking due south 5 km depth
         http://i1049.photobucket.com/albums/s396/gogglezon/BardarbungaQuakes_zpscb6cdf83.jpg

         And let’s stop pretending that large quakes are not occurring in the fissure swarms, 4s are relatively common within the fissure swarm, and there is a 5.2 in there as well.

      2. Magma is mostly filling up spaces in the crust at the moment and expanding. If that means going down, it goes down. The crust has to respond to the stresses the magma is putting on it. That is just how it works.

         We might start to see more deep earthquakes in this region soon. If the crust is not too soft. Since all this heat from the magma changes the crust into half-melted rock with time.

      3. With much respect Jon:

         (1) Magma is buoyant

         (2) The CGPS shows the crust is splitting over a large area, far from from this dike.

         Magma rises, why? Because of it is buoyant.

         So what is the mechanical geodynamic reflex of extending crust during rifting?

         Strong uplift.

         So we have, in this case and geological setting, the two most powerful geodynamic uplift vectors know in powerful agreement to go upwards, and the crust is splitting apart to accentuate and open the path for it, as per the quote I posted in here two days ago, re the Prof of Geophysics at Uni Iceland, saying the lower crust rocks have “cleaved”, based on data available, and the crust is “pulling apart”.

         OK. So what you are saying here is, in effect, that magma rises in Bardarbunga, due to (1), in the familiar situation, but now (2) is occurring as well. So we have a large increase in the usual Icelandic uplift vectors occurring, right now.

         So it rises fact in Bardabunga, but then it gets a bit fickle and goes into the mid crust instead, and pushes an enormous fissure/dike complex sideways for two weeks instead and won’t rise and erupt, even when provided the opportunity.

         But as it does this impossible feat of pressure transmission in the upper crust, magically now (1) and (2) are rambunctiously defying the physical principles that were in full operation in Bardarbunga caldera, where they acted in orderly ways and respected the fidelity requirements of the reality of physical parameter.

         But now they refuse to rise to the surface any more, going down the pressure gradient is not there thing now. Instead they dive for the base of the crust like a molten submarine and ignore the protests of the disregard for (1) and (2).

         The reason why the flood of magma is so intense and protracted this time around Jon, and why it is affecting a larger and larger volume or crust each day, in the most unprecedented way, is because this time it’s not just (1) that we’re seeing here. Now it’s been joined by a powerful dose of (2) and (2)’s buddy is crustal separation induced pressure-release uplift mechanics. And these things driving the magma harder, and longer and faster than anyone has ever seen before.

         Jon, what you propose above is not physically valid at all. It’s not a scientific explanation, it is avoidance of the need for an actual logical explanation and theory basis, and to not reject the implications of new data which you have not seen expressed this way before. This does not work and Mr. Occam of Razor isn’t satisfied.

         It’s time to reconcile this and re-examine the axioms.

      4. Magma is molten rock, but it is also full of other stuff. Like gases, water and oxygen (gas), minerals and crystals. It makes it more of an Newtonian liquid rather than buoyant fluid [2]. I don’t rule out that magma can behave in buoyant ways at times. Since features of magma changes depending on how warm it is (or cold). [1]

         Rifting in Iceland doesn’t happen in steady phase as often is believed. It happens in jumps. What adds to this complexity is the hotspot. Instead of having normal crust thickness of 10 – 20 km there is a thickness up to 46 km in this region of Iceland.

         The hotspot melts the crust above it into new basalt magma (mafic magma). That magma is often lighter than the material around it. Most of this magma forms dykes at 20 to 46 km depth and is recycled again into this process. It never gets close to the surface.

         The rifting episode that now appears to be starting is going to result in movement up to several meters wide. I am still waiting official conformation on this, since I don’t do GPS data. But Icelandic Met Office does and so does the University of Iceland.

         Dynamic of magma are not all that well understood. Since magma under pressure behaves differently than magma that we see on the surface when it erupts as lava. What happens deep underground is only based on theories and some of it on limited studies in laboratories.

         For some reason the magma doesn’t have the pressure to go upwards. It has to overcome gravity in order to do so. It has not done so yet, for the magma to move it is easier to move sideways as the pressure is pushing it that way. It is also path of least resistance (gravity is resistance).

         It is not known, far as I know if the cycle of increased hot spot activity is in sync with rifting episodes in this part of Iceland. That might be and it might not be. I am sure studies in decades to come are going to answer that question.

         Magma rises up because its warm. It is 1200 to 1600C and that makes it lighter than the rock around it. Allowing it to rise. This is basic and simple physics of geology.

         But magma doesn’t go up all over the crust, it goes up trough channels in the mantle and in the crust. How this forms and why it does so is not known. This is also why volcanoes go extinct, they loose the touch with root system that is feeding them fresh magma with time as they drift out active area. The whole thing is as I say is not well understood.

         I keep my views with what has been observed in geology. This is what has been observed.

         [1] “[…] This basalt magma behaves as a Newtonian fluid at temperatures greater than 1217 °C […]”

         [1] http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377027309000109

         [2] http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24809-buoyant-magma-behind-calamitous-supervolcano-eruptions.html#.VAECB_Gs7mg

      5. As for the origin of the magma. It comes from Bárðarbunga magma chamber. As for the magma inflow into that camber, it seems that the magma is coming from depth into the volcano.

         Chemical analyse of the magma that erupted during the night is going to tell us more were it came from. It is going to take while until we know. This things do not happen quickly.

      6. Jon, have you heard of the story “The magic pudding”?

         http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Magic_Pudding

         It’s a story about a pudding that you can eat, forever, it never runs out

         Bardarbunga is not such a pudding. If it produces such a MASSIVE intrusion volume, then it must be sourced from the mantle, and that will dilute the evolved components dramatically and modify them massively. It also ignores that other parts of the intruded crust will contain evolved components as well.

         So the clean uncontaminated definitive bulk chemistry and mineralogy sample you suggest exists does not. It is not credible to posit such assertions via such a sample. I worked for many years in geochem on hard rock igneous samples in particular wit regard to detailed geochemical mapping of mafic intensives and extrusives.

      7. I forgot to mention also that both magmas are sourced from the subcrust, so both have the same or very similar initial chemistry an both will be modified via intrusion and mixing. Definitive origination will be a fantasy in this case.

      8. The source of all this magma is the hot spot. But don’t worry, about 98% [1] of all this magma is never going to up the surface.

         [1] Best guess that I can give you. Based on normal eruption statics that I know of.

      9. One point to reply on.

         But first, your words indicate a classic textbook view serves your purposes the best. I see them as failed and unacceptable as explanations of Earth processes. Another person would be fascinated and thrilled. But for me the simply don’t work as valid notions. Every bit of what you said is old hat to me and which I mostly abandoned 25 years ago as I decided the only way to develop the understanding further was to do it myself, and not settle for any more textbook stories that just don’t match earth processes. Interestingly it was two of my professors who encouraged me the most to do that, to ignore convention and consensus and go as far as possible. What a blessing those men were. And yes, I got the full geoscience education. You are contented with a working placeholders, but I’m not. So rejection of ideas (not the person) is baked in. If there were not this diabolical variance between people then most of science development would not have come about at all. And without the people like yourself, I can happily admit much of it would not weather the years too well. So I say this with fond respect Jon, I have come back to your blog many times over the years to lurk and like what you do, so please don’t take it another way.

         ” What adds to this complexity is the hotspot. Instead of having normal crust thickness of 10 – 20 km there is a thickness up to 46 km in this region of Iceland.”

         Nevertheless, the very definition of a moho lower bound is the wave propagation features of substantially always partially-melted altered mantle. So saying a moho is 46 km down (I have read 29km and 39 km for the current fissure area) is the very same thing as saying that immediately under the crust is a massive thick reservoir of significantly melted material that’s ready and available to intrude the sub crustal zone at any time.

         So you admit there the moho is thick and thus implicitly is a vast volume of existing melt, ready to go and to decompression-melt even further. But then you want to hold to a clearly incorrect concept like asserting all magma comes from Bardarbunga. And that it could not be from the immediate subcrust that is rifting. 😀 And that’s just so completely ridiculous.

         I would hope you digest that incongruity, you seem to take it in stride. 🙂 I recognize most people can not face the process of having to re-evaluate a huge body of comfortable thought and knowledge. They just can not, and some people can’t live with failed ideas and need to push further, almost desperate to do so. So we are both totally ridiculous here jon. 😀 I understand the mechanism of no change, I’ve seen it all my life. But what I value most are the few mentors who said don’t accept anything we say, or anyone else says, because we don’t know and nor do they. So we challenge you to try to disbelieve us, if you can. That was the best thing they could have said, and I hope there are other people who will ready the above mutual clap-trapery, and go past it, in ways I can’t even imagine.

         See you tomorrow.

      10. There is nothing stopping you from proving your ideas.

          You just need to prove them in science type of way (peer-reviewed type of way). I wish you happy searching and learning.

      11. I am peer-review published Jon, it wasn’t easy either, main stream journals will not risk a new concept these days, let alone many, unless it’s already been consensually adopted (then any one can publish something haha .. and do!). As you see I’m a terrible marketeer for consensus, 😀 So one is left with science exploration journals and symposia proceedings, and a few scraps, etc. I could make some suggestions about peer review seem very ridiculous too, but anyone who strives to go further knows. Or I could blog! 😀 … nah, maybe when I’m a bit older. 🙂

          We have a good sport this inquiry and observation gig, I’m sort of glad it doesn’t have an end-point. I appreciate your good sportsmanship.

      12. Hi. I have seen the 3d map and it’s very interesting. And a bit disturbing…
          What do you think about it? Do you think this can leed to a eruption like Laki? If all those quakes and the way they are placed indicates how much magma that lays beneath there… Well – it would be a LOT of magma.

          Thank you for the link. And sorry if my english is bad. 🙂

      13. Hello Unmentionable! Is there any way we can get in contact? Add me on Facebook or send me an Email? I really need to talk to you

      14. I don’t like to talk from fortune-teller view, observing is so much more surprise filed.

      15. I see the deep sourcing quite clearly. Thankyou Unmentionable.

          We have tectonic shift, but could that be a by product of mantle plume pressure?

      16. That is the theory of most common utility (99% assume it is true). Many theories are placeholders that sort of work for a purpose to hand, so are rendered very useful, but are actually very useless and misleading for a cohesive understanding purpose.

6. According to Rúv News the earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano so far is equal to whole year of earthquake in Iceland. In normal year there are around 12.000 to 16.000 earthquakes during the whole year.

7. Unless the ridge is also pulling apart, then the path of least resistance is to stay down below, where wider, hotter, and more plastic.

   It really does appear that the action may be in the swarms, but the tectonic forces work best for opening seams on the edges of the swarms, in rock with no previous injections.

   Guess we have a lot of paper fodder from this ole dyke….

   1. The magma is going to fill all those holes the rift is creating. We are going to see more eruptions. Both large and small, short and long. This is going to be a show with breaks between them.

      1. I totaly agreed, there will be more eruptions as it constantly try to find a good path up and out,. the question is when,not if.

8. Can 3 on you tube
   Barðarbunga Volcano Livestream: http://youtu.be/xoISDUAPNgc

9. Sorry – I was fooled by the slide show. The night shot is full of fire.

10. Jon, any idea as to why we can’t see the webcam through Milan. Every time I click on it it pops up resource unavailable .

    1. It works on my computer. I suggest that you use Firefox or Google Chrome to view the web cameras. There is darkness in Iceland at the moment and nothing to see.

       This might also be some type of other issue (that I don’t think I am able to help you with, you should contact Míla or have some one close to you check your computer). Here is a link that works for me.

       http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

11. Jon, thank you for explaining things in a way that’s understandable, unlike “unmentionable” , where everything sounds like blowhard double talk. I have learned so much about volcanos from you Jon. Please continue to keep the “uneducated ” volcanologist informed.

    1. Both Jon and Unmentionable are very knowledgeable, I wouldn’t go knocking either of them since a great deal of what is actually happening in this event is confusing the best experts out there. Even the IMO have a list of outcome options. Debate is good.

       1. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Thomas Kuhn would be a great read for those challenging the current paradigms. Research and studies are needed that show the inability of the current consensus paradigms to explain the data. New method of data collection are needed that transcend and are not constrained by the curren paradigms. New theories need development that better explain the data. Then and only then will the community start to have a paradigm shift.

12. When there is thunder someone considers stealing it. Where there is rhumbling there is always textbook. That is not why those of us that tripped onto this blog are here. From novice to knowledgeable the information has often been both what it is and one step ahead. I particularly appreciate when two know it alls spar to highlight a point of view. Yet I prefer all the support and excitement at the task at hand with all of its complexity and twits and turns. Jon I appreciate your ability to stay the course and rather then rebuttal and chastising debate you let outdated data go and allow geological nature to take us the next step.

13. geek fight. regardless, jon unmentionable, this is really interesting, and your blog is the best new’s source out right now, and I look forward to the opinions expressed about the facts of the current occurring process’, by you guys. I hope we all learn from it.

14. Does anybody know the unit of the y-axis in the tremor charts. 8000 what?.

15. Any sense if the dyke is meeting more or less resistance today than yesterday when progress of extension seemed to have slowed?

16. In reading unmentionables fanfare it seems he is highlighting your thought that “all magma comes from Bardarbunga. And that it could not be from the immediate subcrust that is rifting.” It was not easy to get his point yet other than saying he knows what he is talking about that is all he is saying.
    I learn much from imaged and it seems plausable that at one point the magma could be sourced from all along the dyke. It seems the word sill is used yet I like rift. One thing for sure, I am dependent on experts and Iceland seems to be the best of training grounds for those interested in what nature has in store for us.

17. http://www.mnh.si.edu/earth/text/images/4_0_0_0/4251-5.jpg

    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n4/images/ngeo1435-f1.jpg

    A couple of images that seem to be related???

18. So far, it sounds like concerns about a possible jökulhlaup are focused on the area to the north and east of Bárðarbunga. What are the early signs that flooding could occur in the area to the south or west? For instance, is the rising water level at Grímsvötn lake a possible indicator of melt water headed in that direction?

    I’m very lucky to be headed to Iceland in a week on a volcano and glacier itinerary. Thank you all for feeding my curiosity through the entire Eyjafjallajökull eruption and now this one. I have exhausted the attention span of everyone I know on this topic.

19. It seem this is what unmentionable is suggesting. http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/gallery/kilauea/erz/erzmagma-350.jpg

20. Does anybody know the unit of the y-axis in the tremor charts. 8000 of what?. Just to understand it better.

21. Textbooks tend to reduce complexity to a soundbite that the average reader (who supports the publisher) can understand and what the editor agrees with. What you see via the internet is a more public controversy of ideas that previously was hidden by private letters or occasional letters ‘to the editor’, where importantly science has always existed as a battle of ideas where consensus has *never* been the final decider of what is true or false.

22. Re: Unmentionables comment that the dyke intrusion involves a huge amount of Magma.

    I really do not see how a cubic kilometer of magma is a huge amount given the history of this volcano. Further what amount of rising magma is huge in the context that most magma does not reach the surface and our abilities to know what happened historically in large eruptions is very limited.

    1. ‘Huge’ is a non-quantity used in a context it point to the clear difference of former non-rifting volcanism volumes, and this situation. Decades ago 1km3 was considered a global average extrusion volume per annum, so this is a huge figure, but yet smallish to a rift context. But 1km3 in less than 14 days is incredible. Jon’s comment about cumulative annual earthquakes totals makes the same point just as well. The scale of recently observed deformation suggests all the more of a volume unknown and estimates unreliable.

23. Sorry. I saw this. The graphs show average vertical movement per minute for each seismometer, in three frequency ranges (Hz).The vertical axis has the same scale for each station. Maybe µm/s but given as average per minute.

24. True that 98% of magma never reaches the surface but isn’t that figure true for magma convecting mostly in the mantle not just the crust? To me it looks like most of this magma is not opening or pushing the crust apart but that motion is tectonic pulling apart and the magma that was already just below the crust is coming up to fill in the gap? (tests on the new lava will tell us)

    So how stable is this sort of magma? Isn’t it highly gaseous? The charts seem to show that the crustal separation continues at a high rate. In that case the cause of the increased magma flow continues. Whether or not that causes an big eruption I do not know but it seems reasonable to think that more tectonic activity makes that more likely.

    1. The fundamental difference between mantle and upper mantle asthenosphere is seismic velocity, which is modified by the percent of melt present in the rosk.

       In other words, mantle proper, is almost completely solid, and melt within it can only be a very minor component in the interface near the moho. So the common false assumption in the public mind, that upper mantle is melt dominated, even in a hotspot, is not supported by the seismic propagation evidence. It is not true. It is a popular but failed conjecture that doesn’t go away, and which is currently very much disputed and doubted (as are mantle hotspots as well, it explains the high geotherm, but not from melts in the mantle).

       So the assumed influx of melt plume is seismically not present, and a mentla figment of failed former views, for the most part.

       Truth is a solid crystalline mantle, and reconciling how that can physically be, sans the old axiomatic assumtions, is where the fun is now.

       But the upper mantle’s ‘asthenosphere’ above the moho seismic speed change (above Jon’s 46km depth) contains a lot melt component within it – always. Other wise it would be seismically almost indistinguishable for the rest of the mantle.

       The moho is itself the compelling evidence that the asthenosphere is the source rock for almost all ‘typical’ rift volcanism events, and the slightly deeper mantle decompression is rarely involved at all (except to replenish the asthenosphere after rift uplifts).

       Mantle originated xenoliths and xenocrysts are the only sure sign that the mantel ever gets involved to sub 50 km depth occasionally. Else the xenolith mineralogy defines PT conditions of asthenospheric sourcing.

25. Fascinating debate.

    I look forward to seeing how everyone’s theories and understanding evolve over the next few weeks and months as these ideas are thoroughly tested in the laboratory of reality, in what everyone seems to agree is a major event.

26. Jon, I have followed your blog since the eruption of Eyja in 2010. I enjoy reading your posts for their informative and balanced nature and appreciate your calm and consistent style of writing and responses to comments.

    To fellow readers who would question Jon, please do so in a respectful manner. We are his guests, after all.

    Thank you.

    1. Ditto – Debate is fine but the only thing that was missing from the post was that it was not typed in all CAPS. BP should be checked on a regular basis.

27. EQs happen when solid rock moves against solid rock or splits apart – the result of direct rock movement not magma. EQs are a result of magma movement but dont directly indicate where the magma is.

28. If this is going to be a long lasting event of a majoe scale as we all seem to agree to it will be intresting to se what effect it will have on the climate. Maybe much more in the short term than cabon dioxide. But hat depends on how big it will be and how long it lasts. The winters after such an eruption must be intresting.

29. Jonas Nilsson:if we get something similar to the Skafta fires in 1783,I am more worried by the summer and the global droughts than how the winter would become.

    LLooking back at Iceland modern geological history, indicates that a major event is overdue. One can actually not draw such conclusions based on history, but at least it increases the likelihood of a major event.

30. What would be interesting is to do tomography on the EQ signals with doppler shift analysis much in the same way as an ultra sound scan to get magma chamber dimensions and even flow data.

31. From wikipedia: “It has been accepted that the eruption of Toba led to a volcanic winter with a worldwide decrease in temperature between 3 to 5 °C (5.4 to 9.0 °F), and up to 15 °C (27 °F) in higher latitudes.” After Laki: “The Laki eruption and its aftermath caused a drop in global temperatures, as sulfur dioxide was spewed into the Northern Hemisphere. This caused crop failures in Europe and may have caused droughts in India. The eruption has been estimated to have killed over six million people globally,[5] making the eruption the deadliest in historical times.”

32. You have to wonder about the political consequences of a major climate effecting event.

    I’ve been reading up on after effects of Tambora and Laki, and harsh winter followed by failed crops is not good.

    Everyone is worrying about ash stopping flying, but what if several months of airports being closed due to freezing weather and storms is also on the cards? With sea travel also being effected. Making travel difficult for developed nations at a time off multiple international crises could give extremists a free hand elsewhere.

    Would also have an important effect on the Russian situation. Certainly after Tambora and I think after Laki, Russia remained a food producing area, whilst western Europe did not. The thought of Putin controlling both the food and gas supplies to western Europe as we go through a volcanic Winter then Summer gives me the shudders and must be a bit scary for any country with a Russian minority, given how Putin is acting up in Ukraine.

    The Euro crises has just started to rear it’s ugly head again, and a big blow from Iceland might be what tips the European economy over the edge.

    This is why I am watching carefully, and hoping nothing happens.

    1. The world financial system has being held together by economic bandaids like QE and credit expansion since 2007. A cataclysmic event could bring the whole system down. It’s even got a term “Black Swan Event”. This could take the form of a serious terrorist attack, a war to break out between nuclear armed states or an pandemic outbreak or serious natural disaster like – VEI 6+ volcanic eruption.

       A worldwide financial collapse will be worse then the 1930’s era depression era. A large eruption in Iceland will exacerbate the situation.

       The world missed a bullet by one week in July 2102. A massive set of CME’s were released from the sun. These CME’s passed a position in space where the earth had been one week prior. Even NASA has been quoted as saying. If those CME’s had hit the earth the population would have been taken back to the stone age.

       1. That is just what i mean. We have to be prepared before the catastrophic event happens. Statisticaly it will happen. Unfotunally man has a habit of making some of the worst heself like wwII etc

    2. I’d like to say such an event would spur awareness that we need to take natural hazards seriously an ensure proper contingencies are in place.

       But we had that near miss CME and nobody cared, a meteorite exploded over Russia causing best part of a thousand casualties; and within 24 hours they were back to talking about reality TV shows.

       It seems like we actually need take a major disaster on the chin before anyone clocks that having a contingency might actually be important. Not saying this will be a major disaster mind you, but attitudes in general towards them.

33. Excellent debate on this thread.

    Debate is good!

    Keep it going

    I think GPS (from link earlier) shows that Iceland is clearly heading East and West and the current active rift (split) is centred just East of Bárðarbunga, I would say this is a tectonic event so the power required for this is deep sourced.

    Currently the opening of the rift is slow as magma entering any fractures has time to cool before reaching the surface. This is forcing (via pressure via buoyancy and gas, not gravity) the magma from depth into the various volcanic chambers in the area, until the weakest and nearest blows, in this case I think it will be Bárðarbunga. I have calculated that Bárðarbunga volcanic plug contains just over1000 km3 of rock, which is currently getting fractured by all the activity within the chamber below. The activity in the chamber below caused by pressure changes induced by a deeper tectonic event.

    This could be a very longterm event, at least many years, we could have fissure eruptions, but my main concern remains Bárðarbunga. Considering the areal extent of the acivity this suggests that such an eruption could be large and long lasting, so not something we actually want to see. I woud rather see lots of fissure eruptions now in the hope that will save us from Bárðarbunga, but the earthquakes from the Bárðarbunga plug contact with its host rock suggests that this is a weak spot.

    I have not been formally educated in this subject, so my comments above are just the way I see the current situation based on what I have read and see in the data.

    Good luck all, especially the scientists currently working in the area and everyone else, particularly Jón for keeping us all informed.

    1. “(via pressure via buoyancy and gas, not gravity)”

       Quick note: buoyancy is density-difference, and gravity’s effect on that is the relative buoyancy potential.

       1. true.

34. Mag 5.4 under Bardarbunga

    http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/

35. The droughts and famines following Laki caused the french revolution.

36. That is the problem. We should not be alarmistic, but something is going to happen sooner or later. All catastrophic event does not hide in the past. That is statisticaly impossibe if the earth remains the same. You do not jhave to read the book of revelation to know that. Even the scientist says that in the far future the sun will consume the earth. But i mean 1783 or 2014 is pure statistics. Are we prepared?

37. Mag 3.4 EQ at 1.1km depth at the continental slope south of iceland… maybe an underwater landslide triggered by the 5.4 Mag EQ at Bardarbunga at the same time? Tsunami?

38. Truely amazing.

    http://baering.github.io/earthquakes/visualization.html

    1. Wow!

    2. Amazing!

39. Significant tremor rising in sw Iceland Reykjanes,Nylenda last hours.
    Is this due strong wind ,ex hurricane Christobal hit now Iceland?
    How can i see on the tremor graphs that a eruption started?

    1. A smaler one not so much i think. You can se the one close to the event in this week like dyn and ask. A major one you will have a big broad peak and noise, but the levels are very high even now.

40. If we had a time machine and travelled 100-150 thousand years into the future, where this dyke is now will be standing a small volcano, perhaps 1000m in hight. Bardabunga will have been long dormant, even considered extinct by some.

    1. Rift moves at roughly 2.5cm per year i think Bardabunga would’ve moved something like 2 1/4 miles in 150 thousand years… Maths isn’t my strong point mind you! 🙂

       1. Ok, what i should’ve typed was the rift would be 2 1/4 miles, Bardabunga would’ve move just over a mile!
          Curse that hurrying due to going out for lunch! 🙂

41. Does anyone know where I can get the seismic data for the area around Gjálp fissure vent eruption in 1996 and the Bárðarbunga earthquake swarm in 2010?

42. Thankyou Unmentionable for your respectful authentic and valuable contribution. Thankyou Jon for hosting a forum (your website in totality) that has inspired a fascination in science for one with no scientific inclination whatsoever. Thankyou everyone for being such a well informed, inclusive, dynamic and hospitable community. And thankyou Mother Earth for your home and ongoing , eternal inspiration! We honour you.

43. Hi!
    I just saw that CGPS-Station “Vonarskar∂” ( http://strokkur.raunvis.hi.is/gps/#VATN ) moves rapidly to the west again since several hours (since M5.4 this morning….?).
    It’s the nearest station to Bardarbunga-caldera, together with “Hamarinn”. On this station the measurements indicate same movement like Vonarskar∂. But is some behind regarded to time.
    So… when the caldera moves down for some reasons, the surroundings move which way? Sounds good for me. But than, for example “Grimsvötn”-station should move eastward. But thats not the case…
    So whats up with Vonarskar∂?

44. I would also like to express my thanks for your great website Jon, donation is heading your way 🙂
    One of the best, if not the best source on anything related to icelandic geology.
    Looking and the prolonged seismic activity of this whole event as well as the GPS data coming in, I also assume we are going to be served quite a show in the coming weeks/months/years. Let’s hope it’ll be pretty to watch without causing too much damage 🙂

45. Hi Jon I find your posts very interesting indeed,I’m no geologist but to me this is looking like a period of unrest for Iceland something that is well overdue, and again as with you I think this could be a long slow process. But I think the European governments should be paying attention to Iceland and be prepared for any major eruptions, which could happen because we are in uncharted territory here.
    Jon keep up the good work, because this mother nature at it’s best. There is nothing that can beat the power of earth.

46. Jon, your last forecast was correct, you said manner of hrs max days. What’s now your forecast how it will continue?
    Keep up your great work!
    Sascha

47. Currently four scenarios is considered likely from official side. Which one would you consider the most likely of the four?

    1. Giant fissure eruption lasting weeks to months. Fire curtain 300meters high with 4-10km3 flood basalt. This will start after multple 5-6mag quakes at less than 5 km deep . Not in the next few days.

48. Where did dyn go?

    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/allarsort.html

    1. http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/dyn.gif

49. Are all webcams down die to the bad weather? Does anyone know?

50. Just a question ??? what is the best site to follow the rifting process going on.

Comments are closed.