This is a short update because there’s a lot going on.
- Earthquake activity started to drop around 04:00 this night according to Icelandic Met Office and seems to continue to drop at the writing oft his article. This suggests that an eruption might be getting close in time.
- Strong earthquakes might still happen even if earthquake activity is dropping.
- Movement on GPS is close to 50mm in some locations. That’s a lot more than in earlier eruptions. When it was at most from 15mm to 25mm in some locations. Movement is not equal in all directions and location on GPS.
- During the day the earthquakes started to move south again towards Fagradalsfjall mountain. At the same time, number of earthquakes dropped.
- Here are the web cameras I know of as writing of this article. Rúv, Reykjanes North, Reykjanes south, Live from Iceland, Fagradalsfjall, Live from Iceland, Langihryggur, Morgunblaðið, Perlan.
- It is impossible to know when an eruption starts.
How long the wait until an eruption happens is impossible to know. Because of activity in this area in the last two years, the crust around Fagradalsfjall mountain and nearby areas is weak and can allow magma to pass more easily then it otherwise would. It remains a question if there’s some type of block that the magma can’t get trough close to Keilir mountain. Magma is always going to find path of least resistance and erupt at that location. That location is now somewhere between Keilir and Fagradalfjall mountains.