Posted on by Jón Frímann

Tremor pulses in Hamarinn volcano (most likely)

During the past two weeks there have been tremor pulses in Hamarinn volcano (is claimed to be part of Bárðarbunga volcano system), at least most likely that volcano. But it might also be a volcano that I call Skrokkalda Volcano (other name might be Hágöngur volcano) (it has no entry on GVP web page, I do not know why). But given recent history I find it unlikely to be the case.

This harmonic tremors might be due to dike intrusions. I find it unlikely to be from a man made lake called Hágöngulón that is in this area. The harmonic tremor pulses look like sharp spikes on the tremor plot on the Skrokkalda SIL station.


Harmonic tremor spikes from Hamarinn volcano. Copyright of this picture belongs to Iceland Met Office.

This pattern of harmonic tremor spikes was seen all last year and all of the year 2009 from what I can remember. I do not have tremor charts from that period. But however this suggests that more magma has now started to flow into Hamarinn volcano. But there was a small volcano eruption (it seems so, given the flood that took place in July) in Hamarinn volcano last summer (summer 2011). What happens next is a good question.

This process of inflow of magma seems to without earthquakes, or close to it. I do not know why that is and I have no ideas that explain it.

637 Replies to “Tremor pulses in Hamarinn volcano (most likely)”

    1. What!? We could easily see an Eyjafjallajokull type event which starts as a fissure then migrates to the main volcano! :O

      1. Oh, my apologies, it appears my common sense may have left the building for a moment there! 😉

  2. Well, we’re at that confuse stage where we have to be careful with media news.
    Between rumors and facts, best to do do is wait for information from scientific bodies such as IGN or crise management bodies as PEVOLCA, even local government officials are not very reliable because sometimes they don’t understand what is happening and tend to mess everything.

  3. Both Katla cams down? Mila has a glorious photo dated 26 October 2001 and RUV isn’t responding now at all after showing an old video it seems…

    Strange

  4. Let’s not forget that there has been a change in the “activity”, as now the magma-chamber is filling and we’re no more in the “building” of the feeder channels. I’m not sure how this phase can translate in surface effects (hydrothermal activity at some spots, “noises” persued by the locals”).
    I’m really keen on having some “official” info by the authorities or IGN.

  5. Well, what a pleasant suprise to wake up to. Looking at the constant tremoring, I wouldn’t be suprised if some kind of eruption is taking place.

    1. “Armas betonte, dass die Eruption eine positive Nachricht sei, denn mit ihr würde sich auch die Spannung im Erdinneren entladen.”

      translates into:

      “Senior Armas (Island of El Hierro’s President) highlighted that the eruption is a positive note since the strain within the crust is now releasing.”. Oh well…

      1. That’s pretty much what they are saying. Even diving is allowed now, but they should avoid the hypocenter of the recent EQs. And the tunnel should be opened again according to him……..pointpointpoint

      2. He puts it with caution: after the experts will have analyzed the situation, it will be possible to say if the activity has calmed down and if the tunnel can be opened again etc.
        Typical politician: eeeeeeverything will be ok, if the guys behind me confirm… And you see the guys behind changing colour because they would have liked some more hours to see if it’s clever to give people hope about what exactly is to come and which precautions will be “lightened”…

    3. Mr. Alpido Armas says swimming and fishing is safe if one just stays away from the epicenter (on German news, GeoLoco’s link above): “Für Taucher und Fischer gab es Entwarnung, sofern die das Epizentrum meiden.” Good to know!

      1. Put a very cute way, but yes, if there’s stuff enough…
        This can all happen without any harm to anyone. Altough, me being a sensitive person, I’m glad I don’t live there. As a tourist on a boat it mus be a hell of a show as soon as the effects reach the surface (look for vids about Surtsey).

    2. This sounds like excellent news for those living on the island.

      What is a little concerning for me is the fact that if an erruption is taking place, should the pressure have dropped or at least come down a little?

      Pressure Chart

      I’m completely uneducated on these matters so it could sound silly to some!

      1. Depends if the influx is higher than the output…
        A lot of factors playing a role – the reason why I would still say it’s worth to wait and see what exactly is to come. Might be done with what is going on right now, might become a fissure eruption going “up” to the island (would mean a lot of energy and material available)… Looking forward to look back in some days.

      2. Thank you!

        Makes perfect sense – think I am getting too used to the ‘run for the hills’ response you get in some other places around 🙂

      4. Refreshing, an international journalist actually looking for info in a place where they might get good info (although we speculate a lot) from people who are not writing to alarmistic about eruptions. Welcome to the club 😉

  8. @ Christina
    re your 0935hrs question !
    What happens depends greatly on the water depth, greater depths tend to produce pillow lavas where the lava breaks off in large ‘pillows’ as the water rapidly chills the outside of molten lava – it looks like burning toffee or sugar on a fire! nothing much happens at the surface as the water/lava are insulated from each other by a layer of superheated steam itself a good thermal insulator.
    Shallow water can be more exciting with much water vapour and particulate rock – from phreatic explosions – as ash clouds, but can also be just lots of water vapour.
    hope this helps
    A

      1. Being very general: it doesn’t have to be so deep -a few 10s of metres is sufficient for the water pressure from above -ie the weight of the water above -to overcome the water vapour pressure and contain the eruption if its a lava of low gas content; higher gas content lavas are more explosive and so deeper water to overcome. In a way it depends on the lava type, hence gas content and the temperature.

      2. @christina From what I know, If an underwater eruption is at great depth, more than 700/1000 meters, we may not be able to see anything at surface. If is a little less, for example 500 meters, we can see “bubbles” of semi-melting lava sometimes “exploding” at surface, gases and water vapor, something similar to what happened in the eruption of Serreta volcano, west of Terceira Island, Azores between 1998 and 2000. At that time the eruption was at 500/600 meters depth.

        Some pictures from Serreta at that time:

        http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/7913/serretaf.jpg
        http://img577.imageshack.us/img577/8851/balesdelava.jpg

        But Jon says that new vents on the shore cannot be ruled out.

    2. Not that bad, so far it seems like there might be (it is not confirmed yet) a nice calm little undewater eruption. As long as it is going at that depth there is not much danger at all. A pumice raft could though theoretically damage your propeller if you are on a boat though.
      It could potentially spread to a rift on the side of the island, but that should not be a big danger.
      So, I am sorry to say that this is not the end of life as we know it.

  12. One thing I think is strange.. where are all the quakes between 10 and 0 km.. If there really is an eruption why were there no quakes when the magma was reachign to the surface..

    What I think (but I am an amateur) is that magma is entering the magma chamber now through a conduit (als Carl also said) and that what is being observed is just gas that is going through the magma chamber and through the rock above the magma chamber into the ocean.. The tremor is than the filling of the chamber, and the things that look like an eruption is the gass escaping into the ocean from the ocean floor..

    However I also might be completely wrong.. What are your ideas?

    Sander

    1. Somewhat in the sense of what I ment when I wrote at 12.21…
      They all seem very fast at coming to conclusions.

    2. Sander:
      My guess is that the 4,3M quake opened the rift. If it was on a weak spot a quake like that could open it. Remember that we never saw the slip faulting numbers of that one.

      But, it might still just be gas seaping out, and the bulk of magma is rushing into the magma-reservoir. If so, it might be a rather large eruption if that tremoring is magma gushing into the reservoir.
      Please do not use the word Chamber, there are quite a few journalists reading this blog currently, and they get the wrong idea, reservoir is better. 🙂

      To the journalists: A volcanos magma-reservoir is not a big empty chamber, it is a tubinged maze of cracks and fissures. Think of it more as a spunge, than a hollow chamber, then you get it.

      1. To the journalists: Imagine a reservoir as Spongebob, and the filling / emptying is like when he washes… I think of analogies for Patrick, the pineapple house and the krusty krab and come back with the rest of the story…

  13. @Jon: You’ve mentioned that the intensity doubles every 2 hours. Looking at the tremor graph shows, that the colored area does not douple up every two hours – however, it becomes clearly more intense. Is it the same with the intensity of an EQ where the difference of one full magnitude to another (for exmaple from 3.0 to 4.0) is 10 times higher? Meaning, doube the size of the colored area in the tremor plot would mean 10x more energy?

    Or how can you say that it doubles every two hours?

    1. Harmonic tremors double differently then normal earthquakes. But if the reports are correct then a eruptions has not yet started. But is about to start soon.

      1. They dont know, they say what we already know, there are instrumental signs of what can be an eruption but not confirmed yet, as a helicopter survey found no traces of eruption on surface.

      2. From the depth of 500 metres you cannot see an eruption normally.
        I have sailed over an eruption, and the only thing I saw was a fork of alot of pumice (floating gas filled volcanic stones that comes from unusually gas rich magma).

    2. Fishermen-facebook-twittering is good, waiting to see what’s really cooking is better… 🙂
      And the island-chef already was speaking of re-opening the tunnel…
      Slow down, take it easy… (as “bad”, or at least annoying, drivers stick on their cars in Switzerland)

      1. My bet is still for a real eruption between wednesday and saturday, after the chamber had time to fill and build up some decent pressure.

    1. As the blogger says, even specialists can’t remote-see what exactly is going on.
      News about this ship with a cam-robot is cool. Sure we’ll have nice vids to look at while we wait for new lurking-plots… 🙂

  16. In the vicinity of the reported underwater ” gas release ” there were two quakes reported at depth around 0901 and 0958 hrs. The last was sensed as a II-III. These are some 4-5 hours after apparent onset of noticeable tremor.
    Is the tremor masking smaller quakes? Earlier posts note that there is the potential for confusion between the authorities having jurisdiction. Is this due to lag time required to review and correct the initial data. Or is this a case where the instrumentation is incomplete to provide the level of data one might like in time.
    The GPS data plots suggest that at some instruments, three different rates of movement have occurred. These are very small total deformations of 30 -40 mm (horiz.) but so far little comment has been made or reported on accuracy of the instruments or readings and possible vertical information related to the horizontal movements. Not much detail has been reported on surface release of SO2 OR CO2.

    1. Filling of the chamber with magma movement that is measured, plus pressure going up that leads to some kind of seismic signature and deformation, plus partial pressure release by what was meant to be an eruption (measured as seismic whatever and influences deformation). Up, down, to the left, to the right, interferring waves and tremors of all kinds. We just can’t get a complete picture of what happens right now with some geophones…

      2. I had show enough watching today’s speculation. Sure it’s going on and will get better and better the days ahead…
        It’s tremendous to have the opportunity to follow the activity like that. Hooray to the web!

  18. This is the thing that we need to start ruminating on.

    With the apparent wholesale movement of magma, and the shifts in the masses down there, how fast can additional melt be generated by the loss of pressure at depth? How long before it starts it’s winding ride on the buoyancy train? Will there be some sort of signal (quakes) that we can see that will show this?

    Expectant volcanophiles wait to see.

    1. These are exactly the things I’m keen on knowing. What do we see of these processes where thermodynamics and chemistry play such an important role at the side of the very “physical” pressing/cracking/frictioning/releasing. If they show, how fast do they happen.
      So horny…:-)

    1. A lot of controversy, it seems to me that it was just a wrong choice of words in the public official statement when they talked about “release of fluids and gases”.

      1. When politicians think they know better than scientists… Seen and reviewed sooo many times.
        The tie is not the organ that evolution gave us to think!
        Hahaaaa, love it somehow. If it wasn’t such a shame for the population that deserves clean communication…

    2. Google’s Manglation:

      “16:00 – Current Volcanic Islands (AVCAN) To our knowledge, Carmen Lopez, IGN, denies that release gases detected volcanic fluid and El Hierro, contrary to what the council says. We are trying to contrast the news, but it would be really surprised if confirmed the same, now IGN is unbecoming after all the media tide is running.

      15:42-The Management of PEVOLCA says there is no certainty of an underwater volcanic eruption on the island of El Hierro

      14:19-So far the experts “do not know if the emissions are gas or lava.”

      Sometimes information comes leaking out of a statement that may or may not have been intended.

      “do not know if the emissions are gas or lava.”

      That sort of states that there are emissions. It’s pretty easy to tell the difference between gas and lava… so what this probably means is that they don’t know what is causing the emissions. Water flashing to steam or percolating gas from the seafloor. Either one is likely lava related. I don’t know what is on the seafloor south of El Hierro, but there is a possibility of methany hydrates… they are everywhere. Heat them and the gas comes out of the ice-bound structure and percolate up. Or, it could be de-gassing of magma nearing the surface. There are several thousand years worth of sediment there and what ever is in it that can be released as a gas… probably is.

      In all likely-hood, it’s gonna be somewhere between those two scenarios… or both.

  21. This quake is also visible on the tremor chart (red line). It is beneath the island.
    10/10/2011 14:57:04 27.7071 -18.0464 13 2.5 mbLg W EL PINAR.IHI

  23. Look at the Mila Katla cam. A cloud is rising up in the center of the image. It’s been there for a while, 2 hours or so. I know this is nothing but clouds, but …

  24. It was really sunny and beautiful on the Katla webcam, the sky wass blue without clouds but… Like Mizar, I saw four times in 30 minutes a small and very light cloud rise in the middle of the mountain, always at the same place, and dissolve quickly to the right. It’s a bit disturbing.

    1. Yes. I’ve seen it too: a very thin light brown haze that disperses fairly quickly.

      1. Was going to say that IMO is not reporting any activity at Katla so we must have seen clouds from snow or ice meeting a warm area – but then saw that the last EQ that they have reported was at 14:38 for the whole of Iceland.

  28. For those how where wondering. The harmonic tremor in El Hierro is getting stronger. This happens now every 1:30 hours or so it seems. From 2 hours as it was before.

    A eruption does not seems to have started. I think. But magma is clearly on the way up to the surface.

    1. Is there any way to figure out where it will eventually break the surface? Are people reckoning somewhere at sea ref. what we’ve heard earlier today?

    1. “Where” is the 64 dollar question.

      Stronger, yes. The question is how far will it ramp before settling down to a specific pace. This plot is derived from your linked graph. I digitized it, ran the integration curve on it to get rid of the noise, then differentiated back to get the envelope. Two curve fits were then run to get an idea of how it’s tracking.

      http://i52.tinypic.com/22e0b4.png

      1. It is actually stumping, you know that your plots actually is the clearest things about what is happening?
        The weird thing with internet is that we are probably knowing more than most experts sitting in our comfy sofas thousands of kilometres away.
        Keap up the good work!

      2. G r e a t.
        You’re giving us insights I never had before, especially not so directly whilst things happen.
        Thanks for sharing.

      3. It is actually stumping, you know that your plots actually is the clearest things about what is happening?

        + 1 from me too, I think your plots are most informative and much better show what’s going on than the ones available on IGN website.

  30. Don’t want to alarm anyone but there are definite “smoke signals” coming off the right hand side of Katla. Not big enough for an eruption but a little unusual.

      1. Hmm can see them too – but I reckon more like from the centre of the lower icecap nearer the camera. Cloud just forming up due to air mass changes? Or something from that southern activity that keeps showing up on the earthquake charts? I’d bet a bit of cloud….. (quickly hides his money under mattress)

      2. My money is on small geothermal activity. Emphasis on small. If I can find a way to upload my screen dumps, it will be clearer.

      3. I think it is just cloud – looks like mists forming elsewhere on the lower land, too. (Retrieves money from mattress…)

      1. I think it could be behind Katla. There are hydrothermal areas. Perhaps there is some warm air that lifts up as little clouds. I have seen that before and it’s no sign for an eruption.

    1. An eruption can not be confirmed, but a build-up towards an eruption may be going on.

    2. Luisport, de que sitio tengas esto? (Juan Carlos Moll Garcia Atencion cuatro says that lava is coming out and dead fish and that on the sea they see fire bombs ¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡ This is really intolerable)

    3. @ Suzie ar 18:18 — Don’t worry, in the Spanish version Chieftain Pérez has no idea either, he’s just adding to the confusion.

  32. Leonor Padron Gonzalez la 1 noticias tambien confirman la erupción
    há 2 minutos · Traduzir.Juan Carlos Moll Garcia Atencion cuatro dice que esta saliendo lava i peces muertos i que por el mar se veen bombas de fuego ¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡ esto ya es intolerante de verdad ¡¡¡¡
    há cerca de um minuto · Traduzir.

    1. Luisport:
      Could you please translate that one, it is beyond both my knowledge in spannish, and giggle well…

      Leonor Gonzalez Padron also the 1 confirming the eruption news
      HA 2 minutes · Traduzir.Juan Attention Carlos Garcia Moll says that four out lava i i dead fish in the sea that will be seen that ¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡ firebombs and is intolerant of truth
      há um near Traduzir minute

    2. Googles’ attempt at translation ….

      Leonor Gonzalez Padron also the 1 confirming the eruption news
      HA 2 minutes · Traduzir.Juan Attention Carlos Garcia Moll says that four out lava i i dead fish in the sea that will be seen that ¡¡¡¡¡¡¡¡ firebombs and is intolerant of truth
      há um near Traduzir minute ·.

      2. I do not get where he got the firebombs from, I could understand dead fish though. SO2 kills fish as well as humans.
        But there is no way there could be firebombs.

        I will fight you for the firebombs, they are mine mine mine… My preeeecioouuus!

      3. Probably from William Wallace’s arse. I don’t knownif You have seen the movie but he’s believed to have the abilities of sending lightning from his eyes and fireballs out of his downstairs aperture…

  34. Now that I had some time to ponder and think (and with the hind-sight of Lurkings beautifull plots), I have an idea of what is happening.

    The large 4,3 a few days ago, together with the large quake-swarm that accompanied it, opened the conduit from below the MOHO up to the magma-reservoir. The magma then started to move up, but very little and slowly, untill it during last night it started to move up quicker and quicker.
    It is still moving into the reservoi, and has not gone up to the surface. But as hot magma mixes with old material it de-gasses and that gas is what is filtering up through some kind of went.
    My guess is that the magma by now has started to move up, following the gasses, but the presssure is not large enough yet for the magma to have reached all the way up.
    My guess is that the magma will reach the surface sometime the next 3 days.

    But, as Lurking said, where it will reach the surface is a 69 dollar question.

    Lurkings plot:
    http://i52.tinypic.com/ehj9td.png

    1. I’m nearly sorry dor the journalists. Here they have it, but they can’t use it just like that.
      I said Wednesday to Saturday, you dare to precise 3 days what makes it Thursday (and it sucks I trust you more than myself 🙂 ). It it blows Thursday I will not be able to do anything else but smile like an idiot for 3 days in a row…

      1. Ah, but I hedged myself with saying in the next 3 days, so it could go anywhere from now to thursday.
        I am basing this on average magma speed up through conduits with a speed of 300 metres per hour as average speed (a number I read somewhere), but hedging it to be quick like hekla (4000 to 8000 metres per hour) down to half of average speed which would give thursdayish.
        So, it is a guesstimate based on a bit of knowledge.

        Mount Erebus seems to be the slowest with 5 metres per hour.

      2. I called it guesstrapolation, based on comparable values. problem for me is the reservoir volume left to be filled. As pressure was still rising “reasonably”, I thought it might not be immediate, especially if there had been some kind of intermediate eruption releasing a bit of the pressure and making the build up last longer. That’s why eventually until Saturday. Wasn’t only wild guessing…

      3. I guess we will now sooner or later.
        What should we bet on?
        The looser have to ingest a Margherta in a severely odd way of prefered choosing and tell the story on this site? The winner of course wins the exact same thing (gentlemany and everything).

      4. Where? I’d say closer to the island than was claimed in the last times. The old pathways probably still offer some residual fracturation. If the reservoir is full, there’s no reason the juice shouldn’t seek it’s way around where it did before. No special or better paths offshore, or I missed something on the local geology / structure…

      5. I still like the idea of shared victory / defeat, resulting in a dance act in front of the Katla cam and some dozen sheep…

      6. It should be infront of the Hekla Armoured Dalek, sheep of course, me BBQing my hat naked, and sucking margheritas through the nose with straws.
        Shared joy is double joy (at least for Diana who get two naked men to watch).

      7. Everything for Mistress Diana. Absolutely. I’ll perform a rain-dance turning around your BBQ, naked with feathers at different emplacements…
        Sounds like a he’ll of a plan.

      8. I will offer free transport to and from Burfell camera/dalek site (and can provide sheep if you are willing to sign a “display-only–no-lewd-act” contract) if you plan on going with the hat-barbicuing event Carl 🙂

      10. We will be two people riding with you, since GeoLoco now have promised to attend the party.
        I am too suspicious of sheep for any lewdness happening 🙂
        Will you also dance? Would make Diana happy 🙂

    2. Pretty much what I have been thinking , too. However, I’d not give any guarantee on magma using the same route to the surface as those gases…

  35. Is it me or has the seismograph for CHIE (SHZ) El Hierro gone of for a tea break? Either that or it has instantly gone quiet.

  37. Are these the text and the translation that you needed?

    18:48-Nemesio Pérez, volcanologist and director of the Instituto Canario de Volcanología, said that today they don’t presume that there is currently an ongoing eruption in the sea, but he also said that the seismological instruments were registering tremor, but they can’t confirm an submarine eruption, there is no confirmation about that there would be an eruption happening at about 3 or 4 km to the south of the island. He said additionnally that though they had registered a series of signals that could indicate a volcanic eruption, there was nothing that would confirm an ongoing eruption at the moment, what is seen at the moment is an reactivation [question of the translator: of what?], but it is necessary to wait and see. All that was registered today is in great distance (of a lot of kilometers) and depending on the information of today there is no eruption in the submarine parts of the island volcano. THIS WAS SAID BY THE A.M. VOLCANOLOGIST AT THE TV CHANNEL 24 HORAS.

    „18:48-Nemesio Pérez , vulcanólogo director del Instituto Canario de Volcanología, ha dicho que a fecha de hoy no hay sospechas de que se este produciendo una erupcion en el mar, también dice que la red de sismologia ha registrado un tremor ,pero q no han podido confirmar una erupción en el mar, no hay confirmacion de que a tres o cuatro kms al sur de la isla se este produciendo ninguna erupción. También ha dicho, que habría que registrar una serie de señales para que parezca coherente lo de una erupción volcánica, nada confirma que haya una erupción en marcha, lo que si hay es una reactivación, pero hay que esperar. Que todo lo que se ha registrdo es a muchos kilómetros, y con la información que hay, no hay una erupcion en el edificio submarino de la isla. ESTO HA DICHO EN LA CADENA DE TV 24 HORAS EL CITADO VULCANÓLOGO.“

    (translated by myself, no garanties!)

    1. Sweet, thank you Inge!
      I especially liked the name of the director, Nemesio 🙂

      By the way, Inge kind of sounds swedish. Have we multiplexed into a new entity?

    1. Lokatindur is part of Askja, it is a transverse fissure in the fissure swarm of Askja. It is high in magnetites and is thought to be the largest source of magnetic ores in Iceland together with Hengill.

    2. I am going Askja on you here.
      Askja has had a caldera root-filling during the last few years. There has also been uplift over at the Herdubreid part of the Askja fissure swarm. The activity in Lokatindur is actually a bit worryin, but only a bit, since that was active either seismically or eruptively in all eruptions sincce 1874-5 eruptions.

      Askja will erupt again sooner or later, but I think she is still quite some way off. Perhaps in a decade.

      1. Thank you, Carl. That was very informative as yr. comments always are – if they are not plain funny … dancing and so on …

        But my name is a bit deceiving – you find it in a lot of countries with germanic languages – even in Iceland. But there, they prefer to call me Inga.

      2. Yes, there are Inges and Ingas in many germanic countries. Dutch? Please tell me to be quiet if I am to nozy.

        I have a very odd sense of humour, and have very carefully trained myself into not filtering it away… 🙂

  39. Question to the Icelandic group here:
    Any news of what happened at the meeting with the citizens in the town next to Helisheidarvirkjun or the Energy Departments investigation? Seems rather quitet all of a sudden over at the borehole, like there is moratorium on the hydrocarb fracking.

    1. They did go mad and ordered a investigation into the earthquakes. So does the department of energy that has also started to investigate the earthquakes and what was going on.

      1. Please keap us informed Jón.
        You are closer to the news than I am (severely bad at Icelandic as you know). Due to my former work I am very interested in this.
        Thanks beforehand!

      2. It seems also IMO did critisize the manmade earthquakes and said they make it more difficult to control what is going on in Katla. http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2011/09/24/manngerdir_skjalftar_trufla_voktun_kotlu/ (Morgunblaðið, 24 sept. 2011)

        In the news of channel Stöð 2 (8.10.2011), they said that some of the earthquakes had been felt even in Mosfellsbaer and Hvolsvöllur. http://www.visir.is/jardskjalftar-fa-a-ibua-hveragerdis/article/2011111009065 , and a lot of them had been felt by the inhabitants of Hveragerði which still had bad memories of the 2008 earthquakes (up to 6.3) in the region.

      4. I am interested too, but only out of curiosity as to whether the Icelandic Government will really tolerate such an activity for the sake of economics or whether they make the company stop. I am astounded the company did not decide to stop when earthquakes started anyway.

  40. The translation for:
    “Leonor Padron Gonzalez la 1 noticias tambien confirman la erupción etc…”

    This lady, called Leonor P. Gonzales also confirms the eruption, two minutes ago.
    The Juan Carlos guy says that lava is rising as well as dead fish and that fire bombs can be seen over the sea.
    This really has become already unbearable!

    3. Is there something actually going on? Dead fish and fireballs seems like when Surtsey eruption was first discovered. Then heat also damaged the Nylon nets (some days before?)

      Can anyone “translate” the current tremour to me understandable values, please, like where on “IMO tremour scale” this be at; like on … http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/god.gif … then currently at 1,000 or 3,000 or 6,000 – or even way off the chart. Fimmvörðuháls broke at 4,000 but Eyjo and/or Hekla at 5,000 to 6,000 (nanometers/sek?)

      Thanks in advance, if possible. BTW, I suggest the New Island be named either El Lurking (literally if still below sea level) or El la Strange (the latter seems more in line with quality of news leaking out.) No offence meant to anybody, only my sense of things developing today… 🙂

      1. I do not believe in any fireballs. Dead fish, could be that fish have died. But then it was probably from SO2 poisoning, not from being cooked alive.
        I do not believe in any eruption yet really (guess).

        I can not translate into IMOish scale. The IGN are not as forthcoming with that as the excellently open IMO. But, a wild guess would be moving towards the 4000 mark and growing. I would not be surprised if it would come up to something like 6000 or more when it finally erupts.
        Hekla by the way had 7500 as peak number at Haukadalur when it erupted, but that number quickly fell. Katla I guess would reach 8000 or more when starts to go.

        Ella is actually a swedish girls name 😉 El la…
        But I think my non-existing daughter will be Methany le Strange.

      2. Methany la Strange would keep it all feminine. But perhaps that name should be set aside for the new island:
        Methany Island!

  41. Good evening everyone. It has been an interesting day here on Jon’s Blog. Katla and friends must surely feel somewhat out of the limelight!
    I read with interest that there is a suggestion that a ship with a robot submersible may be called in. I wonder if that is the “Nautilus” which is currently near the Spanish/Portugese coast. I could imagine it may be unlikely they would risk their craft and equipment without detailed and accurate information about the state of eruption or non eruption in this situation.
    Someone earlier was asking what happens with an undersea eruption. This Video clip from the dives earlier this year on the Axial seamount may give some information.
    This particular clip shows pillow lavas formed as the magma is extruded out onto the seabed and cools in these rounded formations. Rather like hot molten toffee when dropped into cold water it cools rapidly on the surface.
    As the magma flows out from the vent and cools and more magma pushes through it, it forms lava tunnels.
    http://interactiveoceans.washington.edu/visions11/file/Dive+1473+Highlights
    Also there is some interesting reading on the Home page.
    http://interactiveoceans.washington.edu/story/Axial+Seamount
    Finally a nice clip from Youtube showing lava entering the sea off the coast of Hawaii.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsJn8izcKtg

    1. Que?
      Es su imposibile. Muy imposibile.
      Es una infomacion loco.

      If Teide is venting, then something has gone to hell in a rather large handbasket filled with red spike-heeled wellies and all the herring in Norway.

  43. Bernardo Marin .El Pais
    “Televisión Canaria ha asegurado en su último informativo que hay cuatro indicios que supuestamente evidencian la erupción: emisión de gases, desaceleración de los movimientos sísmicos, disminución de la presión magnética y fotos tomadas a tres millas de la costa de peces muertos.”

    1. An amateur translation:
      “TV Canaria has said in their latest news bulleting that there are four indicators that supposedly provide evidence for an eruption: emission of gasses, deceleration of seismical movement (earthquakes), diminuation of the magnetic pressure and photos taken three miles from the coast of dead fish.”

      Not sure what the magnetic pressure is supposed to mean or else my translation is really bad. 🙂

      5. Possibly, magnetica – magmatica, it’s similar.

        The dead fish seem to be confirmed here:
        http://www.canariesnews.com/2011/09/28/el-hierro-earthquakes-update/

        10/10/2011 20:57 – It has been reported that a large number of dead fish has been observed on the surface of the sea where the underwater earthquake occurred.

        10/10/2011 18:23 – The National Geographic Institute (IGN) reports on its website that it has been an earthquake of 1.8 degrees, 12 miles deep, south-west of El Pinar at 14:37:28 hours.

      7. The TV reporter may have misspelled it simply due to not recognizing the word magmatic…

        If it truly is magnetic, it only proves Carl’s theory: When magnetic rock melts, its magnetism disappears.

      8. @Jack:
        No, I did not say that.
        I said that eruptions do not cause magnetic decrease.
        A basaltic lava with high magnetite content is equally magnetic before, during and after an eruptions. The magnetism though realigns as the lava cools down into a heterogenous magnetic body, while it is in a more chaotic state while it is melted.

        Anything else would be against the laws of physics. More coffee Jack?

  44. NOTA 252 AVCAN – ENJAMBRE SISMO-VOLCÁNICO – ISLA DEL HIERRO – 10 OCTOBER 2011- 22:00h peninsular – Seismic activity continues from moderate to high, but calmer in what concerns normal earthquakes and since 4:18h an harmonic tremor increasing in amplitude and strength. Besides its long duration. The magnitude between 2.9 and 0.4. New EQs: 35. Two, between 1 and 2km deep in one of the zones and another zone with quakes between 13 and 15km ( and four at 1,2,4 and 12km and three at 16, 17 and 19km and yet another at 19km). The day before yesterday, 101. Yesterday, 69. Today’s total 24. In total, 9997 quakes located by IGN since 9:00 of July, the 19 th, 2011(Enrique).

  46. About the fish, it is more likely to be sulphuric compounds that killed the fish togehter with carbon-monoxide than that they have been cooked by heat.

  47. From what I can grasp, there is a huge gap between the shallow (superficial fault response to pressure) and the deeper quakes, coming from the chamber / conduits, so magma could find its way anywhere, couldn’t it?
    Therefore I do not think it is quite safe to stay anywhere around the endangered zones.

    2. The question is why there is a gap. If it is because there’s something blocking the way up, I agree with you. But it could be because of the state of the material there; might just not be leading to eq’s because of any reason. I think pressure repartition is not classic Pascal rules in a chamber.

      1. Didn’t finish. Phases vary on the way up the reservoir. It might be that even if there’s no eq at a certain hight of he chamber it doesn’t mean there’s no magma moving. Who knows how the magma affects the sponge around it. might become “soft” enough to let it pass without big signs. For several reasons. Day is getting long, English as my 4th language inappropriate to express myself. Rrrhaaaa.

      2. There can not be earthquakes in a magma-reservoir. If you would actually see one it would be a gas-explotion.
        For an earthquake to form, you need to have a stone that breaks. And magma cannot break more than water can break.

      3. Absolutely. Not in, but around. And there at the different levels.
        See what I mean? No – then sorry, read myself and must admit that it’s not put well…

      4. When you agreed with Renato, it was because you guess magma is actually stuck at a certain level of its way up?

      5. Just re-read Renato. He was talking of above the reservoir. Misunderstood that. Makes my comments about it obsolete.

    1. Lurking, there was a question above concerning “translation” between the IGN power levels and the IMO system. I think you could do a better try at answering that than I could. (I failed miserably)

      Nice powerplot! (as usual)

      1. Thanks @Lurking, VERY COOL PLOT! Getting clearer every minute – there is something – possibly MAJOR (hope not) in the making. How far is that Geophone from the “El Lurking” area? Suggest IGN call IMO ASAP to find out.. Suppose Icelanders can figure everything out quick, as usual (sarcastic: excepting Banking Management) @Carl, did fair to good utill Ella walked into the plot, errrrr… El Jóna … no?

      2. Well… Ehm…
        Banking perhaps is the one thing not even IMO could do well. 🙂
        But CSIS and IGN could do much worse than borrowing a consultant from IMO, much worse.

  49. Fish will normally be able to flee from the heat. When they die it will be of poisoning. Dead fish is an indicator for volcanic activities sensu alto (or any presence of gas or other poisons) but not for an eruption. So forget about that.
    The bombs is something else, of course. Beware of the bombs, or as I thought to read torros flying out of Teide. Bullshoot… Aoutch, really bad one, I know. But please, imagination is cool, but keep a bit of contact with the ground. Some people today really went loco, al least from my comfortable alpine point of view…

  50. @IMO and the posters in here:

    Something has kind of sunk in really today in my poor head.
    And that is actually how horking good IMO really is. It is one thing to “kind of know” that they are the best in the business, and as we now see an example of another agency to compare with.´

    Where IMOs bulletins are calm and purely based on fact and experience, the spannish counterparts seems a bit “overly excited” with the gravity of what is happening.
    I really miss the IMOs dry and extremely to the point style, as todays events unfurl. You all know the type “At 18.15 IMO will do a helicopter fly-over… Sensors seem to indicate…” And then finaly… “Eldgós started at 16.31 at a point 1,3 km west of Gurglafjöll.”
    Never to much, never to little. And always very open and trust-worthy.
    I miss the dry coolness of IMO today.
    It is okay that we confused volcanophiliacs get overly excited. But this time we where actually more restrained than those who should be calm and assertative in what is happening.
    Cudos to IMO (as always)!

    1. Big up for IMO! Yessss. What a difference to the boiling hot blooded friends in the south.

    2. Nice post, Carl, and very true!

      OT, one thing that has really struck me today is that as this blog evolves, we may end up with our own bizarre language, understood only by the faithful.

      For example, a post five years from now might read: “Met the Lurange’s at Bethany Island over the weekend. BBQed à la Dalek, and had a horking good time.” 🙂

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