Posted on by Jón Frímann

Tremor pulses in Hamarinn volcano (most likely)

During the past two weeks there have been tremor pulses in Hamarinn volcano (is claimed to be part of Bárðarbunga volcano system), at least most likely that volcano. But it might also be a volcano that I call Skrokkalda Volcano (other name might be Hágöngur volcano) (it has no entry on GVP web page, I do not know why). But given recent history I find it unlikely to be the case.

This harmonic tremors might be due to dike intrusions. I find it unlikely to be from a man made lake called Hágöngulón that is in this area. The harmonic tremor pulses look like sharp spikes on the tremor plot on the Skrokkalda SIL station.


Harmonic tremor spikes from Hamarinn volcano. Copyright of this picture belongs to Iceland Met Office.

This pattern of harmonic tremor spikes was seen all last year and all of the year 2009 from what I can remember. I do not have tremor charts from that period. But however this suggests that more magma has now started to flow into Hamarinn volcano. But there was a small volcano eruption (it seems so, given the flood that took place in July) in Hamarinn volcano last summer (summer 2011). What happens next is a good question.

This process of inflow of magma seems to without earthquakes, or close to it. I do not know why that is and I have no ideas that explain it.

637 Replies to “Tremor pulses in Hamarinn volcano (most likely)”

  1. OT (or not if Hamarinn/Katla plays up) but the Google ads just said “Emergency Food Supply. Stock up on freeze dried meals, canned bread, butter, cheese & more”

    Is this a Google prediction? Do they know something 😉

    Useful link for background on recent Hamarinn activity (second result on Google so who needs meta tags?) http://icelandgeology.net/?cat=12

    I suppose the real question now is why Hamarinn and Katla seem to decide to be naughty at similar times? (and I am not saying they are linked except they are both in Iceland and on planet earth)

    1. “Is this a Google prediction? Do they know something”

      In fact, they do. They know that you look at a lot of volcano and eruption sort of stuff and they figure that you might be a pretty good target for an ad about disaster stuff. I get the same thing… plus womens shoes. (no, I don’t know why)

      2. They have stopped sending me disaster surviving equipment and now I too get shoes.(Men and womens….A waste of time as I tend to wear wellington boots and old lady sort of comfy shoes.)
        I think my searches for garden sheds and fruit trees has totally confused them.
        Maybe shoes are the safe bet for people that do not fit into a category!!

      3. Put a smile on my face as I was reading this at breakfast and watching the snow falling outside aswell….will be a nice day it seems!

      5. Lurking if you use the Safari browser (available on window and macs) there is a plugin called Ghost and it shows all the different things trying to track your data from page to page (it is amazing how many there are – this site has five 3 google, 1 amazon and statcounter I allow that one).

        Ghost allows you to block them so google, amazon and others can’t follow what you do.

        I have a real issue with how much data is being gathered by commercial companies without our knowledge as in some countries the websites need to ask if they can pass on your data to third parties, amazon and google are getting around this by embedding trackers in various websites. So as you go from one to the other where their trackers are sitting they can join the dots 😮

      6. Yeah, I’m aware of the cookie issue and sub scripts. I disabled my blocking specifically on this site so that my viewing would help Jón’s quest for subsistence. Usually I block any and everything.

        For a while, back when Eruptions was on BigThink, I lost the ability to view the avatar images for the posters because they added a GeoCities style “in your face” floater that tracked with the page. It was embedded in the same code that rendered the avatars. I found it obnoxious so I blocked it also.

        The sidebar ads I don’t mind so much, but when a sites advertisers start getting pushy, I either block them or quit going to the site altogether.

        Generally, I don’t give a rats arse if there is a special offer on whatever gadget or gizmo. If I don’t already have a need for it, pack sand. I sure as hell ain’t gonna buy it. And.. if I need it, odds are I already have it or have figured out how to do without it.

        But, I do appreciate the tip.

        Side note: One site I go to on a daily basis is WUWT. Rather than bookmark it and go straight to it, I search for it in Google every single time specifically to register that search and clicked link decision in Google’s data mining operation.

      8. it was the only advert on the screen at the time, hence was funny. Darn cookies! Speaking of food – Thanks for the burgers/energy on the other thread Lurking. I am never going to look at a burger/eruption in the same way again. I may have to get some Icelandic lamb and cook them over lava 😉

    2. ALL IS BULLSHITE and pandering to your fear fkery…. Keep chat/logs on stream …
      “Iceland Volcano and Earthquake blog ” and realise all is entertainment or at the worst an example of human confusion pulling wool over innocent eyes…. Damn the speculators…. The planet is full of surprises…. and sol, luna et al are here to show you otherwise….. Give up the fear/speculation/….. Moar is apparent than you could rationally realise…. Go back to your homes and realise what good is here at the moment, and what you love is the inspiration that keeps it all going…. May you erupt in your own pyroclastic imagination….
      YOU ARE WHAT YOU SEE,IMAGINE,MANIFEST…. Take care what you desire…. mother responds…. Thanx all who have contributed to this fallacy

      2. Interesting, so you wish us to stop with what we love and what inspires so that you can feel good about yourself?
        Seems like we volcano lovers really are good at not erupting…
        Hehe!

      3. “Give up the fear/speculation”

        It is right to fear and speculate about Icelandic sheep, the volcanoes are a bonus 😉

      7. <<<<Is quietly erupting in her pyroclastic imagination of saving sheep in red wellies with six inch heels from Snow covered mountain Dalecks………

        OMG……..YOU ARE WHAT YOU SEE…..

        ( Warning. The following link could offend )
        A glimpse of Volcanic Friday Night Party
        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EePU9MwxVFs

  2. Saturday
    08.10.2011 01:26:21 64.668 -17.415 2.6 km 2.1 90.01 6.2 km ENE of Bárðarbunga

  4. Thank you for the new post Jon. I have been watching this area and Skrokkalda’s behaviour for some time now and I too have wondered why no earthquakes yet there is certainly activity happening. I think this link is useful especially as it clearly shows the areas of Hamarinn and Bardebunga on the little maps.
    Inflation is obviously occurring so magma filling up something somewhere there.
    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/vatnajokulsvoktun/

      1. Yes, Krafla is unexpectedly active, tremor pulses, now and then juicy quakes at the spot of Krafla fires and so on.
        Problem is that we have entered both a Hotspot activity increase in the hotspot cycle, and at the same time we have entered a rifting period in Iceland. Together this will make pretty much every mainline volcano from Krafla in the north down to Vestmannaeyjar via Askja, Kverkfjöll, Bardarbunga, Hamarinn (if it is not a part of B), Grimsvötn, Hekla, Torfajökull, Eyjafjallajökull (probably done with erupting), Katla and Vestmannajökull. I do expect all of them to erupt at least once in the next hundred years, with the possible exception of Krafla and Eyjafjallajökull.
        Askja, Grimsvötn, Hekla and Katla will most likely erupt with a minimum of 20 times during that timeperiod.
        And, one of the eruptions from Katla, Bardarbunga or Grimsvötn will be a rifting fissure eruption.
        Am I doom and gloomy, I do not think so, it is within what is likely. Even IMO who is the least doom and gloomy agency on the planet, is making a volcanic hazard plan to mitigate what might come.
        The reason for me predicting it is only by using what could be said to be within the mainline of what the volcanos do during average time, then I added a rfting fissure eruption. The number of eruptions might even be higher if Hekla and Grimsvötn keap to their current higher pattern of eruptions. 5 eruptions each is rather low for those two…

      2. I suppose your ideas are not far form what could be expected, but you only consider natural influence on volcanic activity, not the human factor.
        With some help this could easily become much worse.

        There were a few bore holes drilled at Krafla i 1974.
        3 wells and 2 experiment holes. Shortly after the drilling started there was a increase in earthquake activity, and December 20 th 1975 Krafla erupted a few kilometers from hole #4 who had just been drilled.
        This stopped the project and Krafla erupted 9 times between until September 1984.

        Now some experts who have enormous knowledge and skill, far exceeding everything know on this planet, (sort of like the Icelandic bankers and economists before Oct 6 th 2006) are deep drilling this area.

        http://www.lvpower.is/projects/iddp/

        I wonder how long it will be until they start fracking IDDP wells at Krafla.
        When they do they may wake up a old Dragon.

      4. They have allready fracked the IDDP hole at Krafla, but there they used water only.
        It was quite spectacular when they did that.
        Hengill is an IDDP with hydrocarb-fracking. Idiotic since it is close to people.
        I am not so sure about them causing the Krafla eruption, because that was done in shallow boreholes. But most importantly Fönix, the part that erupted of Krafla is so different geologically from the part they drilled that it is pretty much a different volcano all together. They are on different sides of the transverse Graben. A quake or harmonic tremor on one side, does normaly not show on a SIL on the other side unless it is large. To put it quite simply, they cannot affect each other.
        Secondly, Krafla was due for a rifting eruption, so it would have gone anyhoo, at worst they sped it up with a year or so.
        Thirdly, Krafla is perfect as an experiment volcano since it has gentle eruptions, and not many people around.
        Hengill is pretty much unknown, has more explosive eruptions, and is close to population.

      5. Some of the earthquakes near Hengill are at a depth 6km – 8km, which seem very close to the magma 7 (+/- 1) km.

      6. i suppose people will expect future eruptions at Krafla to be rather harmless, because the last one we saw was rather harmless.

        When people were promised the moon and the stars if they would buy bonds or shares of certain bankers that information often was followed with small print saying that the future may not necesserley reflect the past or present.
        I think this is also true for volcanos.
        There is no guarantee that Hengill or Krafla or any Icelandic volcano will follow a pattern previously known to us.

        In 1974, the scientists knew exactly what they were doing at Krafla, unil something happened that they were not expecting of course.
        First a mud Geyser that had everyone on the run, and then series of eruptions.

        This is Tyr, the Deep Drilling rig they use.
        http://www.popsci.com/environment/article/2009-06/icelands-power-down-below?page=2

        Tyr, The Norse God, put his arm in the mouth of the wolf Fenrisulfur to calm it down, as the Gods tryed to put a chain on the wolf.
        Thats how Tyr lost his arm.

        I suppose there are some things that can be dangerous to poke, big volcanos fall into that category.

    1. The storm looks horrendous on the webcams this evening. Hope it blows over soon.

  6. I have found and read this paper describing the Hagongur volcano area.. It’s very detailed as it is concerning the future boreholes in search of more geothermal power.
    Interestingly despite the fact that the area is a caldera not active in historical times the geothermal activity is Very active!.
    There seems to be three areas of obvious geothermal activity within the caldera but two of these are now beneath a man made lake.Anyway I know know quite a bit more about this area west of Vatnsjokull. Most interestingly a very nice report on the flora and fauna .
    http://www.os.is/gogn/unu-gtp-report/UNU-GTP-2004-10.pdf

  9. Jón, have they really made the Hágöngulón hydropower dam out of the caldera of Hágöngur volcano?
    If it is really “dead” it is okay I guess, but if it is just long-time dormant it seems a bit dangerous to put a lot of water ontop of the chamber that by now should be severely weekened due to blocking processes.
    An eruption happening under a hydropower dam sounds a wee bit dangerous to me.

      2. Ah, if it is part of Tungnafellsjökull volcanic system it would take something spectacular for it to go off. That one is dead as a door-knob. It would take a 100 years plus for it reawake.
        Thing is that it is no longer in the hotspot affected zone, and it is in the middle of Hreppar Micro-plate. So it is most likely extinct due to lack of being on a riftzone.
        Then we can safely say it is due to Hamarinn we are seeing Harmonic tremoring.

  10. Hm, El Hierro has picked up intensity again to an even more energetic state.
    The last 24 hours saw a large increase in activity ontop of an allready very high seismic activity.
    I think she will go rather sooner than later now, question is just how long time we will see quakes trending upwards before an eruption happens. I know that this has not happened yet, but when it does I think it could go quickly, days or a couple of weeks at most.

    2. Lurking – are you out there? Any chance of a 4D plot of the quakes around the boreholes/ hengill? I am sure that quake depth is gradually trending deeper with each run and if the paper I read is correct about the magma chamber below Hengill being at a 7km depth, then they are mighty close to fracking their way down to it about now…

  13. Thanks, newby:
    I’ve been checking the quake list for the last ten days at El Hierro, and I found most of them located at depths ranging from 12 to 16 km.
    Only one was 7 km deep, one at 9km, some four or five at 10-11 and the deepest, at 20 km.
    I don’t understand why they are kept at those depths and magma never find its way to the surface. Should we really expect an eruption there?
    As for Katla, most are way shallower, and the explanation is clearer to me: because of the weight of the glacier that works like a natural “cork”. So, we should expect many more joküllhlaups before it blows.

    1. Completely unscientifically or, at least, purely qualitatively and normatively speaking… (eh, what?)

      The pattern of EQ activity beneath El Hierro conjures up an image of something alive and animal-like moving around, searching for a way to break loose. The onset of the EQ swarm in July was the awakening; it has since ventured south and deeper, looking for a weak spot in the crust – testing every nook, kink, and fissure in the stratigraphy. With no luck yet. So it keeps trying and gaining strength. Now it’s heading over to the south-east (Pinar), searching for a weakness there, somewhere, anywhere. There’s plenty of old cone structures in that part.

      So, will the magma-beast find a crustal weakness, a viable route to the surface that it can exploit? We will only know if/when EQ trend starts rising to the surface. It seems pretty determined to ‘escape’. And I doubt it will pass on the smallest opportunity.

      We are so fortunate to live in an age when we have all this hi-tech kit for monitoring and visuallising such dramatic Earth dynamics so many kilometres down below! And, for all the science and modernity, it still retains a wonderful primordial air of mystery to it.

    1. Thanks, Andy:
      It seems that the amount of energy released tonight is larger than all the measured so far put together.
      Any doubts in Spanish, fell free to ask. Portuguese and Spanish are twin languages, so, it’s well understood by me.

    2. People in the forum are talking of complains of headake and diziness… saying it’s about CO and CO2 anomally… This can be dangerous?

      1. Both gases can be very dangerous. While CO2 is not toxic, CO is. It binds to the hemoglobin in your blood and prevents oxygen binding.

      2. CO2 is toxic as soon as it passes the threshold, it is though not cumulative like CO or SO2 are.
        Just nitpicking 🙂
        Everything is deadly in large enough doses, even women. 😉

  15. Harmonic tremor around Katla seems to be rising, don’t think its weather related so im expecting a new swarm of quakes. Can someone who knows a little comment on the rising tremor and what they think it is or its likely outcome.
    As its all frequencies my little knowledge says it should not be storm related although they currently have high winds and rain. This seems to be magna moving and i would expect quakes as it meets resistance. However i am a novice in this field.
    I have got images and charts on the website i own to make it easy to view data on this (katla)
    If it helps anyone to have data in one place
    http://www.floodwarn.co.uk/iceland_katla_volcano.htm

  17. About steam from Eyja:

    Since several people are convinced that they see steam rising from Eyja on the webcam now and then I would like to share this with you. Just found a picture of steaming Eyja and it looks much like a webcam picture one of you (sorry I forgot who) linked to some days ago.
    Here is the article: http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/1884
    and here is a copy of the picture: http://s1112.photobucket.com/albums/k499/sissel59/?action=view&current=eyjafjallajkull20100513steamArniSigurdson.jpg

    1. The picture is a year old one…
      The steam plume that was a couple of days ago was probably some hydrothermal event. Probably water going through a crack into still “hot” lava in the old lava flood running towards “Africa”. It was not a cloud, I know how to spot those, but it was not significant in any way, just normal cooling.

  21. I’m much more worried about Boris as he goes up there every now and then in the line of duty. Plus, he has taken his family up there recently, I’d rather they’d all be in bed with flu if you know what I mean.

    1. Here’s Boris’s comment from the Eruptions blog, from 1 hour ago:
      “A couple of colleagues and my wife Catherine are up there on Etna, near the New Southeast Crater, watching if ever there’s some view through the dense clouds; I have to do a presentation near Taormina so I’m missing the whole thing hahahahaha (but might be getting the ash once it really gets going because it’s downwind). Until now it’s still in the buildup phase and not yet producing a significant ash plume.”
      Here’s the latest post there:
      http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/10/volcanoes-seen-from-space-and-the-eruption-update-for-october-6-2011/#disqus_thread

      2. I bet it’s a heck lot safer than fracking active volcanoes with hydrocarbons…

  22. http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla/gps_austmannsbunga.html

    I said this before, I understand it could still be a error, however all other settings and sites are all working fine. If it was not a error, could allot of magma just moved somewhere by allot of new magma rasing up caused by the deep EQ’S which is pushing the old stuff away.

    South of AUST is were some of the big EQ’S happen. If more deeps EQ’S happen, i think, all the area is very unstable, the channels have taken allot of hits in a few months. Would this help the manga reach open space or block it for another few years?

    1. It is not uncommon for Austmannsbunga to dance around like that. It is just a sign that some movement is pushing it to the southwest.
      Where and why the large upcomponent in the inflation is hard to predict, but Godabunga is rising currently.
      It is normal for a volcano marching steadily towards an eruption. It is definitly not going to block an eruption. If it will help the magma to reach open space is another question.

  23. Hi, Carl
    Are you saying that you have looked at the Mila Eyjafjallajökull live webcam today and studied Sissel’s comment?
    Is the mushroom shaped steam like looking feature in the center something normal that you have seen routinely before?

    1. I think the mushroom shaped feature you are talking about is the glacier! On a better day it looks Africa shaped.

    2. The mushroom is in fact the glacier. Weather is too bad at the moment to see it clearly.
      In the past there were some small discussions if it really was steam what we saw, and today I had to admit it probably was right – after seeing the one year old picture with steam on the same place….

  24. Saturday
    08.10.2011 16:16:26 64.176 -17.936 2.1 km 1.6 33.45 18.7 km NE of Laki

      2. Yes, Etna is really putting on a huge show tonight. Very long one for being a paroxysm. I would say that Boris is gettin a real wedding gift from her.

      3. I’d say the paroxysm proper was rather short-lived, it was all over in about an hour’s time. But it was unusually violent and a large amount of magma was ejected as lava, lava that continues on it’s gravity-assisted way downslope, degassing and interacting interestingly with any bit of moisture, atmospheric or ground, it encounters.

      4. Is there a slight difference between a “paroxysm” and an eruption? I see there is also something like “a paroxysm of laughter”. An eruption of laughter would also be nice.

      5. Every profession has its own, peculiar use of familiar words. As far as I understand them, volcanologists seem to use paroxysm for a minor eruption that is over within minutes or hours. An eruption goes on for days, months or even longer and can be either a plain eruption or cataclysmic, in which case it really is huge and greatly affect both volcano and its surroundings. To return to Etna, it entered an eruptive phase early this year which hitherto has had 16 paroxysms or, as Dr Boris Behncke himself puts it, this episode is the “16th paroxysmal eruptive episode of this year”

        Confusing? 😉

      7. Henrik: Every profession has its own, peculiar use of familiar words.

        Example: The medical profession and their quaint use of the “h” word.

        Who Wantz “Good Vibrations” … ? See Patent US703100

        Henrik: As far as I understand them, volcanologists seem to use paroxysm for a minor eruption that is over within minutes …

        Carl le Strange: He knows that we all love phrases like “the umptenth paroxysmal eruptive episode of the year”

        He deliberately uses the word “hilarious”

  26. More funding for JonF – suggestions?
    This blog interests me.
    I can see that there is quite a few “bloggers” here that knows what they are talking about? For me it’s different, I have no clue about the “technicalities” of eq’s and volcanic eruptions, but I find the blog informative and very interesting as I like any kind of “action”. As I just recently found out that “this kind of blog exists” I check it out several times a day – what the heck, maybe Katla “blows”, and that in my mind is serious “Action”.
    Why volcanic eruptions interests me:
    I was a cowboy at BB Cattle co. in south eastern Washington back in ’79/’80 (still a young kid then) – we were just “riding in” some sick calfs in the morning of May 18th ’80 when we heard thunder – quite strange noice as the sky was almost clear. This was about 300 km away from Helens – next days were dark all day, and we had 5 – 10 inches of ash everuwhere on the 40.000 acre ranch. Even in October the same year we would struggle when the wind blew up, our trailerhouses were easly filled with the “finest looking particles” you can imagine, like superfine powder – beeing a norwegian I would compare it to “potetmel”.
    Suggestion for more funding for JonF: JonF puts a date on Katla’s big eruption. Everybody bets on whether it will happen before or after this date – and everybody puts EUR 20 “on the table”. Eating hats, dancing in the nude, and all that is fine, but it doesn’t pay for hardware and the possibility to be ahead of the coming “action”.
    JonF is not part of the game – so whoever is wrong uses the “donate” button on his “webpage” and pay their EUR 20 loss. Problem is offcourse that if JonF puts the date “far out” – it will take a while before he gets paid…….
    Not knowing what you know – maybe I will be the only one betting on an eruption before new years eve? – hope JonF knows “his market”?

    1. Hi Old Cowboy

      I see no-one as yet said “hello” so I shall. You sound like you have a fascinating past. This is a great group and I’m sure Jon will look at your suggestion. I’m a non-expert so I hang around seeing what comes up. Your experience of Helens sounds awesome. We had Eyjafjallajokull last year, found it weird cleaning volcanic ash off my car in England. But not the same thing as you experienced! Look forward to hearing more from you. All the best!
      Clive

    2. Good morning and welcome.
      Interesting experience Old Cowboy. Pretty bad if you are a contact lens wearer!!
      But it does show how far reaching the effect of eruptions can be.
      As for Gambling on an eruption date? I am not sure any of us here would be daft enough to do that. Although it’s a good idea as we would all be wrong so Jon would make quite a bit 🙂 There again he may have to wait decades for the money.
      Besides I have a vested interest in hat eating and nude dancing 🙂

  29. Mainly at Carl from way up in the thread, but for people in general.

    I try to learn something from from all of my experiences. Other than a rather in depth knowledge of electronics, my experience in the USN had some “world view” lessons that I took away from each station assignment.

    From my first ship, I learned the importance of Crisis Management. That ability to gracefully deal with a myriad of simultaneous problems. It’s not a matter of effectively nullifying them, but to deal with them in a manner that yields an optimal outcome. It may not be pretty, but if it works, your good.

    From my second ship, I learned that no matter what you do, it’s gonna get worse. Expect it. ‘Nuff said.

    Ship number three taught me contingency planning. Since you know everything is eventually gonna go to hell in a hand basket, have an idea of what you are gonna do when it happens. When the crisis happens, time is not your friend. The only way to fight that is prior planning.

    Ship number four… well. This one taught the most painful lesson of all. Simply, “you’re screwed, deal with it”

    So I did. I retired.

    Any agency that puts together a “plan of action” for a perceived crisis is just trying to mitigate the problems that the crisis would or could generate. It doesn’t mean that the event is coming down the pike… just that it could come down the pike.

    Additionally, running around and doing studies and making plans is something that any good agency would do in order to keep the justification for it’s existence (and funding) valid when nothing else is going on. You have to weigh that in when you look at what these agencies are up to.

    Other than that, sit back and enjoy the show.

    1. I have something that I call Norrländsk philosophy. Sweden is divided into three parts (in a way you could think states, although they are not separate political entities). Norrland is the furtherest to the north, sparsely populated, cold and generaly miserable 🙂
      Kind of the environment that creates a certain type of crazy people with strange ideas.

      Norrländsk Philosphy:
      Life is basically gone to hell.
      When life is gone to hell the Norrlänning knows what to do.
      Work like hell.
      When he has worked like hell, life get’s better.
      Then the Norrlänning gets nervous, because then it can only go to hell.
      When life has gone to hell, the Norrlänning feels safe again, because then he knows what to do.
      Work like hell. (Cycle repeats untill a miserable death happens saving him from pain and misery).

      I find this most true. It is all going to hell, deal with it, but don’t think it will get better. If you are lucky you get a beer that does not entirely taste like piss.

      Jack, your turn to overtrumph us both! (Finns are worldmasters at this!)

      1. Finns have never tried to be the best! All we ever want to do, is to beat those Swedes… 😛

    1. I was just gonna write about it, and ask about Hekla… Is this minor Harmonic Tremor? Does that mean we can actually get an eruption from Hekla in the near future?

      1. That is not harmonic tremor, that is increases in mountain strain.
        It is not recorded by a SIL, instead it is measured by something called a borehole strainmeter. Simplified way to put it is that it measures mountain deformation.
        Either as the mountain is squeezed together, or is being pulled apart.
        A transient is when the mountain is trying to open up as it is being pulled apart.
        Hekla is a rift fissure volcano, it may look like a stratovolcano, but it is in a class of its own. That rift fissue is what is being pulled apart when we have a transient.
        For an eruption to start you need a very big transient that is thousands of times larger then this one. There was one a few weeks ago that was half as strong as the one that opened her up during the 2000 eruption.
        I call those that are to small or are large enough and nothing happens for aborted eruptions. See it as a sign how close Hekla is to erupting, and she is constantly that close. Guess why I am more worried about Hekla then Katla.

      1. These are corrected values, wind does not affect the rod like that. Sudden pressure changes can affect the volumetric strainmeter, but this chart is filtered for that as the computer program correct the values in the long term plot.

      2. With rod I mean the rod the is being stretched. The rod is basically glued to the bottom, and then to a pressure gage ontop.
        Quite simple and elegant actually.
        The volumetric is filled with oil or something else that does not evaporate, and then one messure the pressure as the hole deforms or re-forms.

  31. Do you guys think that its a smart idea to store some food for the future?
    Im not that worried. But its always good to be safe. Like to store 500 cans of food in my basment.
    Have you done that or am i stupid?

    1. If you need 500 cans of food life has gone so bad that you will die anyhoo 🙂

      Ask yourself, would you feel safer if you did that? Probably not. I have no food store, and never will get one. Because I know that if something happened the food would be spoilt, and I would have no can opener around in my shelter.
      Stop worrying.

      1. That’s why I keep a “P-38” around that has flint and steel attached to it.

        I’ve been in situations where Electricity went kaput and there was no way to get to a store… many of which had been cleaned out.

        Canned food… yeah, great to have if you are sheltering in place and will have to subsist until civilization can cut a path back into your area. But like Carl says, don’t plan on toting it around. If mobility is your focus you need mobile food. Think jerked beef or salt pork. (you’ll have to be able to cook if you are gonna use pork). Along those lines, dried lentils are handy to have, they don’t require as much effort to get them back into an edible consistency like most beans, and human kind have been eating them since the time the Neanderthals were roaming around.

        If you can’t soak them as much as you like, well, at least the gas will give you and your fellow travelers something to talk about.

      2. Note, by “salt pork” I mean REAL salt pork. Not bacon. Salted meat for long term storage will have so much salt in it, that you can’t eat it without boiling it quite a bit to get the salt out.

        I did an experimental run with some beef in a heavy brine soak. I took the mix down to about the pressure that you would experience at 180 kft and held it there for a week. After I re-pressurized it I then dehydrated it and tossed it in a bag to see how long it would last. So far, this salt encrusted lump of meat has held up for about a year at room temperature. Sure, it will take about an hour to boil the salt out of it but it will make a decent broth.

      3. Furthermore, it’s a good source of vital salt once the factories have closed for good, the trucks no longer runs and the shelves in your local supermarket only hold dust.

    2. The advice I was given when living on the San Andreas fault was to have a disaster recovery kit that contained: essential medicines & first aid kit, food and water for a minimum of 3 days, candles & torches, radio with batteries (also batteries for the torches), machete (I passed on that one as I had no idea how to use one), can-opener and bin-liners for all waste. This was mandated in my household insurance policy. Also had to keep a minimum of half a tank of petrol (sorry, gas) in the car. The food had to be edible in the form that you stored it (you might not have cooking facilities).

      The 3 days was based on the estimated time for help to arrive if the area around you was damaged in an earthquake & the assumption was that the damage would be relatively localised. Clearly, if you live in a remote area, you may want to extend the time a bit.

      Iceland is a bit colder than California so the above may have to be tailored. Also in San Francisco, volcanoes were not really an issue.

      500 cans of food seems excessive unless you have a large family or are storing on behalf of neightbours. Carl’s point about the food that you are storing getting damaged is a good one – you could divide your store so that you keep in multiple locations. But do not forget drinking water.

      Don’t know where you live, but if you are in an area that is likely to be evacuated, most of the 500 cans of food would have to be left behind – you just would not be able to carry it.

      So what do the authorities advise? You might want to check this out first before using your hard-earned money on stores that you might never use.

    3. Store food so that you can feed yourself if you lose your income, or store food because you think that prices are going to up lots. But please don’t spend too much time buying and storing vast quantities of food for a disaster that might never happen!

      My own philosophy, in a (very!) inland, seismically boring, low-risk,city suburb, is that if a disaster strikes, a couple of weeks would be the most we could survive without outside assistance. After that, if disease didn’t get us, the looters would. Accordingly, I keep the cupboards well-stocked but that is all.

    4. My Grandmother brought us up during WW ll. Food was rationed. Winter’s like 1947 always seemed bad. When we had bad weather we were cut off often. I have a squirrel like urge at all times to have, as Grandama said, two weeks worth of emergency supplies. Flour, candles, tinned food and of course we had our stored fruit and veg all winter. I still make jam, bottle fruit, prepare xmas puddings months ahead.Why break habits of a lifetime when I actually enjoy these activities.
      We no longer have a kitchen range but we got onw hell’avea good BBQ my husband built! Kettles boil nicely on it!
      So yes! I store, not in case of disasters but sensibly in case the weather turns ferocious and I can’t get out to do the shopping. 🙂

    5. Typical “Norrlänning”! Prepares for a disaster he is utterly convinced is coming and isn’t really happy until it’s materialised. Seriously, if disaster strikes the laugh’s on the rest of us. To use an Aussie phrase – Good on ya Cobber!

    6. Here is some serious advice.
      1. Food for a week that is non-perishable.
      2. A camping kitchen and fuel for a week.
      3. Candles and matches.
      4. Carosene lamp.
      5. First aid kit, well stocked.
      6. A good sleeping bag.
      7. Good walking shoes that are worn in and socks for a week.
      8. A sturdy knife, a hand axe and a crow-bar.
      9. Water purification tabletts.
      10. If you are american you probably wish to have a gun of some kind to not feel naked. The rest can skip this part since guns way a lot and are just a hindrance.

  33. Saturday
    08.10.2011 23:04:14 64.062 -21.407 2.3 km 3.0 90.07 2.8 km N of Hellisheiðarvirkju

  34. Swarm – 3 are decent quality.

    Saturday
    08.10.2011 23:08:21 64.061 -21.403 2.9 km 2.1 90.03 2.7 km N of Hellisheiðarvirkjun
    Saturday
    08.10.2011 23:07:49 64.060 -21.403 5.0 km 1.7 90.02 2.6 km N of Hellisheiðarvirkjun
    Saturday
    08.10.2011 23:07:32 64.050 -21.392 3.2 km 1.3 66.3 1.5 km NNE of Hellisheiðarvirkjun
    Saturday
    08.10.2011 23:06:37 64.054 -21.386 3.9 km 1.3 36.91 2.0 km NNE of Hellisheiðarvirkjun
    Saturday
    08.10.2011 23:04:14 64.062 -21.407 2.3 km 3.0 90.07 2.8 km N of Hellisheiðarvirkjun

    2. Well, pumping carbonated water into an active volcano when it’s highly likely Iceland is entering a highly active volcanic phase… Not sure what they’d expect! They may want to stop poking it.

      1. Something tells me that they intend to poke it untill something gives.
        Hey! Last time it worked out fine when they had an industrial accident with a volcano. Then they got Bláa Lonid. I do not think they will be that lucky…

      2. Bláa Lonid is just the overflow of the powerplant which didn’t seep away as planned. It turned out that this failure was quite lucrative.

      4. Have you considered this:

        They might be doing it because Iceland has entered an active volcanic phase and there are quite a number of volcanoes so close to Reykjavik that if one of them goes, and it will unless something is done, Iceland is fooked? At Vestmannaeyri they saw that once an eruption has started, it takes one hell of an effort and in spite of “success”, a great part of the town was lost, so this time, they work the prevention angle.

      5. One big flaw in such a rationale – and that is that if they ‘deliberately’ triggered an eruption here, wouldnt that take out most of the Reykjavic’s power supply? They woudl also need firm evidence that Hengill was linked (in terms of magma supply) to all volcanoes that could be considered a threat. Unlikely IMHO.

      6. Jules, that’s not what I’m saying. Should Hengill go now, any eruption would be small as there won’t be much, if any, eruptible magma. If they are successful, other volcanoes deemed dangerous might be treated the same way. This is why they may be using Hengill as a test bed as it’s too late to do anything about Krísuvík.

        That said, it’s just a possibility and one I wouldn’t opt for. Then again, the words “My son, do you know what little wisdom the world is ruled” were uttered almost 1,000 years ago. Plus ca change, plus la-même.

      7. Henrik…
        1. Hengill had a root-filling a decade ago.
        2. It is a fissure volcano, so it takes it directly from the fissure, the magma-reservors are just secondary. That is if I have undestood it Hengill can have such large eruptions.
        Hengill do not have small eruptions. Mid sized to very large.

      8. @Carl, that’s not completely true, Hengill has erupted small volumes of magma, 5550 BC for example. Now the majority of the KNOWN eruption-volumes have been med-to-large, still that does not say anything as alot of the small flows are probably covered by the larger ones and have therefor not (yet) been discovered.

        @Hendrik, believe me, there is no way that the Icelandic government is manually trying to trigger an eruption. This makes no sense on so many levels. There is so little we known about volcanoes and eruptions for instance, and even if we would know how to trigger an eruption, the Icelandic government would not be able to respond to all the possible risks that are involved. There are thousands of safer and easier ways to cope with volcanic threats.

      9. Pieter:
        Thanks, I forgot that one 🙂

        Hendrik:
        You are forgetting one thing.
        It is not the Icelandic Government doing this.
        It is Orkjuveita that is owning the plant. But the actual drilling and research is paid for by the american government via the University of Columbia, and the European Union. But the primary funder is Norsk Hydro.
        I do not think either one of those give a crap about constructing safe eruptions. They just want to test cool new ways to;
        A) Produce power cheaply.
        B) Getting rid of CO2.

      10. I’m going with Carl on that last one! I think the project’s intention is rather harmless, as will be the resulting seismic swarms. One compareable project that has been going on for some time is in northern Cali, near the geysers.

  36. Is there higher than usual demand for power at the moment in Reykjavik so that they might want to drill at night?

    1. No, and it takes a while to set a hole up so that it is connected to a turbine.
      Secondly, drilling do not cause quakes. It is the fracking that does that.
      I quite simply do not believe that this is pumping with hydrocarb, normally they start that just after 6 in the morning. It is probably to expensive to have a crew there during night. It would be expensive anywhere to have a crew working on a saturday night…
      Unless of course they hoped that we all would be sleeping and not carping about what they are doing.

    1. Probably it is not good. Could be that the quake that caused it was the beginning of the final phase before eruption starts.

      Well now time for bed:)

  40. @ Lurking

    I have a wish – if you have the time.
    It would be interesting to see on a map exactly where the 2011 quakes in the Katla area have taken place. There are several clusters of quakes to be seen on your work. The most western cluster, probably in the vicinity of Gola GPS station, is very interesting I think – why do quakes happen here? Of course the other ones, as the cluster south of the caldera (beneath Hafursárjökull ?) are interesting as well.

    So I thought, Lurking made the video Katla.swf http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_profilepage&v=UCZsz1yR23g with all the quakes from beginning of the year to Oktober 5th. So he has all the data by the hand and it might be quite easy for him to project the quakes onto a map.

    For example onto this one, showing the eruption sites since 1755: http://i1112.photobucket.com/albums/k499/sissel59/KatlacalderaGPSstations.png?t=,
    Do you think it could be done?

    1. I need a good base map… that last link that you have is one that I have been thinking about using.

      It’s not going to be a standard plot in it’s color coding, I’m gonna have to break the set down by month in order to get some sort of color separation. (it’s just part of the issue of dealing with background images)

      Its doable, unfortunately I’ve already pissed away the evening trying to learn the DDE interface to Dplot with several dozen aborted attempts. The language I’m using, though familiar, is a modern cross between C data typing, header files and declarations… and Basic. (yeah, like sticking two cats in a gunny sack) It’s workable, but the examples and DLL are more of an afterthought, so the documentation isn’t what you would call… friendly. So far all I have managed to do it to get the thing to automatically spin an already existing plot.

      Re western cluster – “why do quakes happen here?”

      That’s the Godabunga cryptodome. It formed back before the Eyjafjallajökull eruption and was thought to be a formative eruption site. Though situated on the flank of Katla, it likely is actually part of Eyjafjallajökull. It’s depth tail/spike heads to the west.

      Right now about the only thing that can be said of it, is that until it actually does something, it’s probably gonna turn into a pluton. It still shows quakes because it is so young, and it’s apparent feed structure is still active. This also adds another realm of uncertainty as to what Katla is up to. Katla can open a pretty long fissure set if it sets its mind to it (Eldgjá – 935 AD) , and the Godabunga cryptodome is sitting on it’s porch.

      Another things that makes ya go “hmm” is that oddball quake set to the south that Jón first noticed. Just eyeballing it across the caldera puts you at the south end of where Eldgjá terminated on the north side of the caldera.

      (no, not a prediction, just something that I noticed)

      Katla is scary because it is capable of so much, but just sits there and stares at you, daring you to try and guess what’s next.

      1. Suppose I underestimated the amount of work to make the quake map! Don’t work too hard on it. Or maybe it is possible to make a simplified version?

        Thanks for telling about the Godabunga cryptodome (Carl, that’s probably where the quakes come from which I was talking about). – I imagine a magma mass under Eyja some time ago starting sneaking around, looking for a weak place in the crust. It went eastwards and thought it had found the right place in the flank of Katla. There it starts to pump itself up towards the surface. But no – the Katla flank is too strong, the icecap too heavy, the magma gives up its attempt, cools down and ends (?) as a dome. The rest of the magma pulls itself back and looks for another suitable place to erupt. And in 2010 it finds: Fimmvörðuháls! – Do you think it could have happened this way? Otherwise it must be possible to make some fairytale based on this idea.

      2. I have a different opinion.
        There are two standard models of Godabungas origin. One is that she is a derivat of Eyjafjallajökull. The other is that it is a part of Katla.
        I do not believe either. I think it is a part entirely of it’s own, with a different feeding mechanism. I think we will sooner or later see a new volcano pop up there. When? Dunno…

      3. Well the main struggle I have with the ‘independent’ theory, is the fact that it is so extremely close to another volcano. If an independent volcano is typified by a weak spot in the crust through which excessive pressure can be released in the form of magma and the definition of a volcanic system therefor is ‘a (group of) volcanic feature(s) which has (shares) one independant magmatic source’, it would be weird that this supposed new pocket of magma has not gone in any of the neighbouring volcanoes like Eyja, Katla or Tinfjallajokull.

        Good luck reading probably one of the longest sentences I’ve written!

      4. It was a long one, but with a bit of Cola I managed.
        Actually Tindfjalla is far away and so dormant that it is probably deceased I wouldn’t even count that one as a possibility. Torfa perhaps though.
        Just look at the activity, the activity pattern of Godabunga doesn’t fit either K nor E. At all, in any way. Sofar. But, I give you the point that it might go into E or K in the future, it is even very likely that it will.
        But today she acts as an independent unit of its own. But, it might be a part of either volcano and the feeder is divided so far down, that it is pretty much a different one.

      5. My best guess would be that is another volcanic feature in Katla’s system, which has indeed the possibilities to have her own behaviour, but it was formed by a magmatic influx from Katla’s roots. It might have stumped upon relatively impermeable overlying rocks which trap the magma.
        It would be interesting to do a chemical analysis of the area.

      6. Pieter. the feeding tube distinctly runs away from Katla, it is going to the south west. That is why people think it is a part of E. Problem that I have with it belonging to E is that Es eruption didn’t influence Godabunga in the least.
        If Katla erupts and it goes silent, then I would start to believe that G and K could be related.
        But, sofar the activity pattern of G is more suportive of G being independent.

      7. I forgot to say one thing, Godabunga is stll active, it was active independently of Eyja and Katla for 15 years before either of them did anything, and while they did do things. It is very much active still.
        My thinking is that if it was a part of either, we should see significant changes in activity there, but we do not.
        We still see the same GPS-movement, the same quake-activity, the same heavy tremoring. Nope, it is not by for cooling down. It has been picking up speed slowly since measurments started. When it is going to erupt? Well, ptobably somewhere the next 50 years.
        Let me just say, it would take much more secondary evidencr to convince me that it is a part of E or K, since there is even more secondary evidence that it is not a part of either.

      9. Yes, the tail (feedng tube) runs to the south west. Which indicate that it is a derivate of E, but then Es eruption didn’t make a difference in Godabungas behaviour, either before, during, or after the eruption.

      10. Well I recently noticed on one of Lurkings plots of recent Katla quakes that there was a distinct pattern from G down beneath K, I can’t recall which plot it was, but check it out when he makes another.

      11. I think that is more related to the fissure of 1755, the Lurking Godabunga plots normally show the western “tail”…
        I think Godabunga is a male volcano trying to squeeze in between or two favourite ladies… Neither Katla, nor Eyjafjallajökull have tails… 😉

  41. Could the Co2 pumping at Hengill be helpful? Perhaps it could trigger eruptions but below the normal magma pressure to cause one. It may depressurise the volcano giving more small eruptions but stopping magma accumulating and ever causing a big one?

    1. There is a thing people are forgetting about Hengill.
      He has not erupted in 2000 years, there is huge lake ontop of part of Hengill fissure swarm. And there is a tripple junction directly under it. All of those things would most likely make Hengill go in a big time whatever happens.
      Hengills eruptions are enormous, when he goes. Think Laki/Eldgja/Veidivötn if Hengill has one of the larger eruptions that it has had historically. The smallest it ever had would still be larger than the Krafla-fires and Vestmannaeyjar put together.
      So at best case scenario Irpsits town would be gone. At worst, well who knows…
      You cannot relieve a volcano like that, the risks involved are way to large.
      Hengill even though it has had a bit of root-filling would probably sleep on if left alone, Hengill poked… Hm, not good idea.

      1. About which lake are you thinking beeing on top of the Hengill fissure swarm? Kleifarvatn doesn’t belong to Hengill and the Thingvellirvatn is to far to the east.

      2. Thingvallavatn is part of Hengill’s fissure swarm. The islands in the lake are all volcanic features.

      4. @Chris, you are referring to earthquake swarms? I’m talking about fissure swarms.

      7. Actually, there is even a possibility that the entire lake is a part of a subsidence movement as a magma-reservoir sunk down after one of the larger eruptions long time ago.

      8. I believe the lake was formed as result of a lava flow blocking one or more rivers, but that’s just some vague memory I have.

      10. Following Th. Thordarson/Á. Hoskuldsson, Classic Geology in Europe 3, Iceland, p. 76/77, the lake Thingvallavatn is part of a graben structure. Is that not a tectonic structure ? Is not Thingvallavatn placed more or less exactly on top of the main rifting zone? There has f.ex. been a rifting episode in the 18th century with very strong earthquakes there during which the graben subsided by about 50 cm in just about 3 weeks if I remember that right. Also the a.m. authors say that the “boundary faults of the Thingvellir graben are thought be the surface expression of deep-rooted normal ” (i.e. tectonic) “faults that extend through the crust formed as the result of seafloor spreading.”

        On the other hand, the geologists are saying that there has been subsidence there during the past 9.000 years or so which is still continuing. The lake began forming after Ice Age as a post glacial lake in the graben. But there were also the lava flows of the Thingvellir – Skjaldbreidur – Eldborgir eruptions at about the same time which “terminated the surface flow of the postglacial lake and reduced the lake size by more than 50%”. So perhaps both of you are right.

        Pieter, you can see e.g. on this photo http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%C3%9Eingvellir_Iceland_034.JPG very well that there is not a big distance between the lake and the central volcano of Hengill (the mountain range on the opposite site of the lake behind the geothermal power station of Nesjavellir). The islands in the lake are results of the latest eruption in Hengill about 2000 years ago and so proof of the fact that volcanic fissures are also reaching into the graben and the lake.

    1. Thanks!
      Not many yet, only 4 so fa, but ranging between 9 and 1. And we have not really seen those before. Perhaps on here and there, but not close together. I would guess that the magma have found a place that is weakened and is pushing at a crack or fissure. Probably a fissure that opened from the 4,3 yesterday. Could be the last phase starting before an eruption.

      1. But they look to be out at sea so. When or if this thing goes then the erption will be undersea out of sight. 🙁

        But safer for the islanders i guess 🙂

      2. Nah, it will probably end up on the Island, the innards of a volcano work in mysterous ways. But there is a possibility that it will be a flanking eruption if this goes on.

      3. Are there any non-flanking eruptions on El Hierro? It does not really have a central vent I believe!

      5. Neither am I, but I just couldn’t discover one! What I did notice was that a lot of recent-looking cones and fissures seem to be located at the N-E flank of the island, close to the ‘capital’ Valverde.

      8. The earthquakes now seem to be moving east (in direction of the peninsula near La Restinga) and up, don’t you think? (http://www.ign.es/ign/resources/volcanologia/html/eventosHierro.html)

        Here comes a relief map of the area: http://el-hierro.costasur.com/en/map.html . There seem also to be a lot of older craters on this peninsula. Perhaps the magma is finding there a way up to the surface.

        Would perhaps be better than if the earthquakes move on farther east to the aborted landslide of San Andres …

  43. Hello folks!

    Complete newbie here, so I can’t add anything of “scientific value” to the (very interesting) discussion.

    However I’m a computer nerd so here is a small tip for the fellow Mac users out there!

    OS-X has an integrated feature called “Dashboard” where you can display continuously updated parts of webpages of your choosing. I personally use it as a quick way to keep updated on current seismological events.

    How it looks: http://bildr.no/image/995089.jpeg

    How to do it:
    – Make a shortcut of your choosing to open Dashboard (I use my 5th mouse button)
    – Open the webpage you want to import -> hit the “Archive tab” and then “Open in dashboard”.
    – Select the part of the webpage you want shown and vòila it’s done 🙂

    Have a nice day everyone and keep up the much interesting discussions!
    TH

    1. PS: for the image to show correctly I think you might have to right click the link and then select “open in new window”.

      If I left-click the link I only get a thumbnail.

  44. Well things are starting to make a bit more sense to me now, re El Hierro, and current activity in Iceland. Thanks all

    2. There was no Mila Katla cam back in 2001, the date has just not been set properly.

  46. Volcanic eruption alert on Spanish Canary Island
    (AP) – 26 minutes ago
    MADRID (AP) — The regional government of the Spanish Canary Island of El Hierro has issued a volcanic eruption alert following almost 10,000 small tremors recorded in the past three months.
    The government posted a yellow alert — second level in a scale of four — Sunday and closed some hillside roads and a tunnel to avoid possible injury by falling rocks.
    The island’s 11,000 residents have been told to monitor communications by the civil protection authority. The island was shaken late Saturday by a 4.3-magnitude quake. Seismic activity began in the area on July 17.
    Like all the Canary Islands, El Hierro was formed by volcanic activity. It has some 500 volcanic cones.

    1. Almost all activity today is at El Pinar, not the Frontera.
      Now we can all just wait for the quakes to start to crawl upwards. I wish we had a couple of borehole strainmeters to monitor the mointain contracting and de-contracting as it deforms before the eruption.
      And gas-meters.
      By the way Jón, why does the IMO not have permanent gas-monitors at Hekla and Katla? Do you know that? I mean, that should be good since both of them seems to emit SO2 before an eruption.

      1. Well Hekla does not have real prominent hot springs I believe, and Katla would be a little hard I guess, over the glacier.

      2. There has been reports of gas emissions in the valley between Isakot and Hekla from hikers during the hourss before the last eruptions.
        And we have had a lot of reports of gas smell (rotten eggs) around Katla the last couple of weeks. Katla is not a problem really, just put them on the Nunataks, and on the SILs closest to it. And of course one on the side pointing towards Vik.

    2. This AP news is a bit strange as they were already on yellow alert since September 23 and today there was no update. PEVOLCA (Civil Protection Plan for Volcanic Risk ) will meet tomorrow to evaluate the situation following the 4.4 earthquake.

      1. Sounds odd, if they have not met already without telling anyone and AP got it wrond and they’ve gone from yellow to orange. Going to orange alert would be sensible actually.

      3. Ah, I would have guessed that the Spaniards had to invent a colour coding of their own.
        I am for some reason more familiar with green, yellow, orange, read and dead…

  48. Looking at history, the history of our speculations post-Eyjafjallajökull, there were loads of ideas about which volcano was next to go. First it was Katla as “everyone knew” their eruptions were linked. Then with the increase in activity around Vatnajökull, it was Bardarbunga, Laki, Askja, Hammarin, Esjufjöll even if the most logical answer was Grímsfjall all the time. Ockham’s Razor proved correct.

    Post-Grímsfjall, it’s Katla, Hekla, Krýsuvik, Hengill, Godabunga etc that catch our fancy. Ockham’s Razor points towards Katla because of the ongoing activity with Hekla as an outside bet. I bet that the longer Lady K takes, the more outlandish our specualtions are going to be. 😉

    1. I on general agree with you. Although we speculate a lot about the more unlikely volcanos, it was Grimsvötn that was the big issue running up to the eruption.
      Now we are talking a lot about different volcanos. Katla is though the big issue, and it is on a run up to an eruption. But! It is actually Hekla that is the more likely one to erupt, not Katla. In mny ways Katla is the outside bet, it is just that everyone has bet on the more talked about horse, instead of the actual more likely horse to win the race to eruption.

      The rest of them are speculations on which will be next to erupt after that, or erupt somewhere in the future.

      I though would not be surprised if Grimsvötn erupted before either Katla or Hekla. But, I will bet that all 3 of Katla, Hekla and Grimsvötn will erupt before any other volcano put in an appearance.
      My eruptive guess in order of guesstimate percentage:
      Hekla 51%
      Grimsvötn regurgitated 24%
      Katla 17%
      All others during the next ten years 8%, with Bardarbunga holding 6 of those percents.

  49. Sunday
    09.10.2011 16:24:31 63.666 -19.189 1.1 km 2.9 80.77 4.2 km NE of Goðabunga

      2. Also worth noting that conductivity has been climbing since yesterday midday in Mukalvisi. Again might just be run-off from the heavy rain/wind and therefore a co-incidence. It has however been a steady gradual climb.

    3. Revised:
      Sunday
      09.10.2011 16:52:41 63.666 -19.166 1.4 km 2.1 99.0 5.0 km NE of Goðabunga

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