This is a short article about Askja volcano. Because I am getting information that are in my view slightly conflicting with each other.
It seems that an there has been a increase in gas and hydrothermal activity in Askja volcano and in nearby area because of inflation that is currently taking place. At the writing of this article the inflation in Askja volcano seems to have reached between 80mm to 100mm. The reports have been slightly difficult to place in a good picture of what is happening. That’s why I am limiting coverage about this until it becomes more clear to me what is going on.
The general advice from Icelandic Met Office is that people should not hike around Askja volcano or nearby area because of risk of gas and sudden eruption. There is no special earthquake activity at the moment and that makes it difficult to know what is going on. This might change without warning, as is sometimes the case with volcanoes.
This is a short update. Since there is not a lot of information about this.
The crater might collapse at any time without warning. Geologists that monitor the eruption have noticed that the crater has started to get larger and is now full of lava. This means it is going to collapse. What direction is not known. It is my view that it is going to collapse to the east because of least resistance in that direction.
When the crater collapses the lava is going to flow more than 100m/s in whatever direction it flows.
Tourists are in high danger close the crater because of this collapse risk.
Dyke intrusion has been detected east of Keilir mountain. Along with increased ground temperature, that means the magma is at shallow depth in the crust. This area might erupt soon in similar way as is now happening close to Litli-Hrútur.
This is all the information I have now and only thing that has changed in the eruption in the last 13 days.
This article is short. The eruption is mostly stable at the writing of this article but the situation can change quickly without warning.
The eruption has changed in last few hours. It seems to be in only one crater that is slowly forming. The eruption has stopped at the north most end of the eruption fissure. At the writing of this article.
The dyke now extends 1 km under Keilir mountain in the direction of north-east. This might be a new dyke intrusion and not connected to the dyke that started the current eruption. This might result in a second eruption soon, but its too early to know for sure at the writing of this article.
The eruption started large fires in the moss and other plants in this area around Litli-Hrútur. This has resulted in massive toxic smoke in this area.
There’s a high risk of the volcano gas from the eruption, along with the toxic smoke from all the plants and moss burning.
Interestingly, while earthquake activity has dropped it has not stopped. Why that has happened is a bit of a mystery, it might be connected to the possible new dyke that has formed under Keilir mountain.
Yesterday (10. July 2023) the longest the fissure extent was at 1500 meters or 1,5 km. Since then it has gone down to one erupting crater that seems to be 50 meters to 100 meters long.
Map of the danger area around the eruption. The orange area is the danger zone that people should not travel over. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office and others.
It is impossible to know how long this eruption is going to last. Since dyke intrusions are poor magma containers this eruption might be a short one if there isn’t a constant supply of fresh magma from the deep mantle. Its too early to know if that is the case here. I have also noticed that once the eruption ends in any area, that area is not going to erupt again. When the eruption ends, it ends forever and that makes this a single eruption activity or crater rows. This area might be Monogenetic volcanic field (Wikipedia).
Since this type of eruptions are mostly uneventful and just continue. I plan on only posting updates when there are some news or changes to the eruption happen.
Update at 17:41 UTC
ISOR is reporting that their station called FAF (Fagradalsfjall) has to be moved because the lava is flowing directly at it. They are going to find a new location for this station. This report can be seen here on Facebook in Icelandic.
This is a short update because events are changing quickly.
Length of the eruption fissure is uncertain, reports are conflicting. The numbers I’ve seen are from 200 meters to 900 meters long. This also might be a case of growing fissure eruption.
Harmonic tremor on the SIL station Fagradalsfjall continues to grow. Suggesting that the eruption is increasing in power since it started. This sometimes happens in lava eruptions.
The lava is flowing to the south. It might reach Meradalir valley in about one week to three weeks. Some of the lava is flowing to the north, but a lot of less of it and is only expected to flow in the nearby area. There is no risk at current time for any damage to infrastructure or property.
There’s a risk of new fissures opening up in this area without warning.
This area is remote and difficult to go towards. Police has closed roads for the time being for safety reasons.
I’ll post new update soon as I have any new information or if anything changes. Experience has shown that this type of eruptions are rather uneventful for a longer time periods. I’ll adjust my updates in accordance with that.
Today (9. July 2023) at 22:22 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw5,2 happened 1,4 km east of Keilir mountain. This earthquake did shake Keilir mountain and resulting a small dust cloud. This earthquake is connected to inflation that is happening just south of Keilir mountain, rather than being connected directly to magma movements in this area.
Strong earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain and Keilir mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
There’s a risk of more strong earthquakes like this in this area until an eruption starts.
This is a short update, because there’s little to report.
Three earthquakes with magnitude above Mw4,0 took place north east of Keilir mountain in the last 24 hours.
Earthquake activity is increasing north-east and north of Keilir mountain. Why is unclear, it is a possibility that magma is creating a path for it self that way.
The magma seems stuck in the crust and there doesn’t seems to have stopped the inflow of magma from the deep mantle. This is going to result in increased pressure in the dyke until an eruption happens.
Risk of strong earthquakes is high and might get higher until an eruption starts.
Heavy earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall – Keilir mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
Since the start of this activity, around 12000 earthquakes have been recorded by Icelandic Met Office according to the news. Strongest earthquake at the writing of this article is at magnitude Mw4,8.
This is going to be a really short article. Because an eruption might be about to start. Difficult to be sure, but there’s a chance. Eruption has not started at the writing of this article.
Largest earthquake in the last 24 hours seems to be a magnitude Mw4,3. I no longer can keep up with all this earthquake activity.
Inflation in area close to Keilir has reached 200mm (20cm) in less than 48 hours when this started.
Inflow of magma is estimated to be 88m3/s and that is a lot of magma moving and moving fast.
Heavy earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
It is unclear where the eruption is going to happen. But there has been a drop in earthquake activity that strongly suggest that magma is close to finding a path to the surface. According to measurements, the magma is now less than 1 km away from the surface.
This is a short update because there’s a lot going on.
Largest earthquake during the last 24 hours close to Eldey island had a magnitude of Mw4,5.
This earthquake swarm looks like a dyke intrusion. Since the area is out in the ocean it is impossible to be sure.
Difficult to know if an eruption is going to happen in this area. If an eruption happens, effects are unlikely to be big because of ocean depth.
Strong earthquake swarm activity on Reykjanes ridge and Reykjanes peninsula. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
It is my opinion that is unlikely to be an earthquake activity that is connected to the inflation in Fagradalsfjall mountain. Those earthquakes are closer to Fagradalsfjall mountain. It can’t be ruled out, but is unlikely to be the reason for this activity. Earlier activity in this same area also makes this unlikely to be a tectonic earthquake activity. It can’t be ruled out. Areas out in the ocean are always more difficult to figure out than activity on land with easier access.
This is a short update because there’s a lot going on.
Earthquake activity started to drop around 04:00 this night according to Icelandic Met Office and seems to continue to drop at the writing oft his article. This suggests that an eruption might be getting close in time.
Strong earthquakes might still happen even if earthquake activity is dropping.
Movement on GPS is close to 50mm in some locations. That’s a lot more than in earlier eruptions. When it was at most from 15mm to 25mm in some locations. Movement is not equal in all directions and location on GPS.
During the day the earthquakes started to move south again towards Fagradalsfjall mountain. At the same time, number of earthquakes dropped.
Strong earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
How long the wait until an eruption happens is impossible to know. Because of activity in this area in the last two years, the crust around Fagradalsfjall mountain and nearby areas is weak and can allow magma to pass more easily then it otherwise would. It remains a question if there’s some type of block that the magma can’t get trough close to Keilir mountain. Magma is always going to find path of least resistance and erupt at that location. That location is now somewhere between Keilir and Fagradalfjall mountains.
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