This is a short update because events are changing quickly.
Length of the eruption fissure is uncertain, reports are conflicting. The numbers I’ve seen are from 200 meters to 900 meters long. This also might be a case of growing fissure eruption.
Harmonic tremor on the SIL station Fagradalsfjall continues to grow. Suggesting that the eruption is increasing in power since it started. This sometimes happens in lava eruptions.
The lava is flowing to the south. It might reach Meradalir valley in about one week to three weeks. Some of the lava is flowing to the north, but a lot of less of it and is only expected to flow in the nearby area. There is no risk at current time for any damage to infrastructure or property.
There’s a risk of new fissures opening up in this area without warning.
This area is remote and difficult to go towards. Police has closed roads for the time being for safety reasons.
I’ll post new update soon as I have any new information or if anything changes. Experience has shown that this type of eruptions are rather uneventful for a longer time periods. I’ll adjust my updates in accordance with that.
Today (9. July 2023) at 22:22 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw5,2 happened 1,4 km east of Keilir mountain. This earthquake did shake Keilir mountain and resulting a small dust cloud. This earthquake is connected to inflation that is happening just south of Keilir mountain, rather than being connected directly to magma movements in this area.
There’s a risk of more strong earthquakes like this in this area until an eruption starts.
This is a short update, because there’s little to report.
Three earthquakes with magnitude above Mw4,0 took place north east of Keilir mountain in the last 24 hours.
Earthquake activity is increasing north-east and north of Keilir mountain. Why is unclear, it is a possibility that magma is creating a path for it self that way.
The magma seems stuck in the crust and there doesn’t seems to have stopped the inflow of magma from the deep mantle. This is going to result in increased pressure in the dyke until an eruption happens.
Risk of strong earthquakes is high and might get higher until an eruption starts.
Since the start of this activity, around 12000 earthquakes have been recorded by Icelandic Met Office according to the news. Strongest earthquake at the writing of this article is at magnitude Mw4,8.
This is going to be a really short article. Because an eruption might be about to start. Difficult to be sure, but there’s a chance. Eruption has not started at the writing of this article.
Largest earthquake in the last 24 hours seems to be a magnitude Mw4,3. I no longer can keep up with all this earthquake activity.
Inflation in area close to Keilir has reached 200mm (20cm) in less than 48 hours when this started.
Inflow of magma is estimated to be 88m3/s and that is a lot of magma moving and moving fast.
It is unclear where the eruption is going to happen. But there has been a drop in earthquake activity that strongly suggest that magma is close to finding a path to the surface. According to measurements, the magma is now less than 1 km away from the surface.
This is a short update because there’s a lot going on.
Earthquake activity started to drop around 04:00 this night according to Icelandic Met Office and seems to continue to drop at the writing oft his article. This suggests that an eruption might be getting close in time.
Strong earthquakes might still happen even if earthquake activity is dropping.
Movement on GPS is close to 50mm in some locations. That’s a lot more than in earlier eruptions. When it was at most from 15mm to 25mm in some locations. Movement is not equal in all directions and location on GPS.
During the day the earthquakes started to move south again towards Fagradalsfjall mountain. At the same time, number of earthquakes dropped.
How long the wait until an eruption happens is impossible to know. Because of activity in this area in the last two years, the crust around Fagradalsfjall mountain and nearby areas is weak and can allow magma to pass more easily then it otherwise would. It remains a question if there’s some type of block that the magma can’t get trough close to Keilir mountain. Magma is always going to find path of least resistance and erupt at that location. That location is now somewhere between Keilir and Fagradalfjall mountains.
This is a short update since there is a lot going on.
Largest earthquake recorded at the writing of this article is Mw4,8 from earlier this morning.
Larger earthquakes are growing in numbers. There is now also a warning for possible Mw6,3 earthquake on Reykjanes peninsula following this earthquake swarm and dyke intrusion into Fagradalsfjall mountain.
The dyke intrusion is coming up just south of Keilir mountain.
Based on what I am seeing, it is possible that current dyke intrusion into Fagradalsfjall mountain is larger than the first eruption in March 2021. If this is accurate is a wait and see situation until an eruption starts.
It is possible to view the earthquake activity in real time here, at Raspberry Shake website.
All data now suggest that an eruption is going to happen. Where it is going to start erupting is impossible to know and it is not possible to know when it is going to start erupting.
I’ll try to post update when more is known about what is going on.
This is a short update since this situation is changing quickly.
Largest earthquake recorded so far had a magnitude of Mw4,8 and was felt over a wide area.
Uncertainty level has been declared for Fagradalsfjall mountain area because of this earthquake activity and the risk of an eruption.
Current depth of the magma is now 3 to 6 km and is getting shallower by each hour.
Over 2000 earthquakes have been recorded at the writing of this article.
The only web camera that I know of at the moment and is showing Fagradalsfjall mountain is this one here. When the eruption starts, it should be visible in some part on this web camera. I hope that other closer web cameras are going online soon. Those where run by Rúv and mbl.is in last eruption.
This is a short update on the activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain.
Currently there have been around 200 earthquakes that have happened at the writing of this article. The first magnitude Mw3,1 took place at 22:45 UTC. This magnitude is automatic and is going to change when the earthquake is reviewed.
There’s a lot going on at the writing of this article and the situation can change without warning. I’ll post updates as best I can.
Since yesterday (06-October-2022) the earthquake activity has been increasing in the volcanoes Fagradalsfjall and Reykjanes volcanoes. Please note that Global Volcanism Program has updated the informations regarding Fagradalsfjall mountain and now classifies it as its own volcano, this is after a new report and information from Icelandic Met Office. From now on I am going to use that classification when updating on activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano. I’ll not update older articles (too much work), but this also applies to them as such.
This also means that Fagradalsfjall is a new volcano in Iceland.
Earthquake activity at start of an eruption cycle in Fagraldsfjall volcano are not large. They grow larger once magma has started to push into the crust, until then the earthquake activity only seems to happens with minor earthquake swarms.
Article updated with new information.
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