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Update on Fagradalsfjall mountain activity at 16:35 UTC on 5th July 2023

This is a short update since there is a lot going on.

  • Largest earthquake recorded at the writing of this article is Mw4,8 from earlier this morning.
  • Larger earthquakes are growing in numbers. There is now also a warning for possible Mw6,3 earthquake on Reykjanes peninsula following this earthquake swarm and dyke intrusion into Fagradalsfjall mountain.
  • The dyke intrusion is coming up just south of Keilir mountain.
  • Based on what I am seeing, it is possible that current dyke intrusion into Fagradalsfjall mountain is larger than the first eruption in March 2021. If this is accurate is a wait and see situation until an eruption starts.
  • It is possible to view the earthquake activity in real time here, at Raspberry Shake website.

 

A lot of green stars and red dots in Fagradalsfjall mountain on Reykjanes peninsula. Time on map is 5. July 2023 at 16:25 UTC.
Heavy earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

All data now suggest that an eruption is going to happen. Where it is going to start erupting is impossible to know and it is not possible to know when it is going to start erupting.

I’ll try to post update when more is known about what is going on.

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Update on Fagradalsfjall activity at 11:40 on 5. July 2023

This is a short update since this situation is changing quickly.

  • Largest earthquake recorded so far had a magnitude of Mw4,8 and was felt over a wide area.
  • Uncertainty level has been declared for Fagradalsfjall mountain area because of this earthquake activity and the risk of an eruption.
  • Current depth of the magma is now 3 to 6 km and is getting shallower by each hour.
  • Over 2000 earthquakes have been recorded at the writing of this article.

 

A lot of earthquakes in Fagradalsfjall mountain. Time on image is 11:30 on 5th july 2023.
Earthquake swarm activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

The only web camera that I know of at the moment and is showing Fagradalsfjall mountain is this one here. When the eruption starts, it should be visible in some part on this web camera. I hope that other closer web cameras are going online soon. Those where run by Rúv and mbl.is in last eruption.

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Update on the activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain

This is a short update on the activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain.

Currently there have been around 200 earthquakes that have happened at the writing of this article. The first magnitude Mw3,1 took place at 22:45 UTC. This magnitude is automatic and is going to change when the earthquake is reviewed.

Green star and a lot of red dots in Fagradalsfjall mountain.
The heavy earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

There’s a lot going on at the writing of this article and the situation can change without warning. I’ll post updates as best I can.

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Two earthquakes in Bárðarbunga volcano

Because of other activity in Iceland. This article is going to be short.

Two earthquakes took place in Bárðarbunga volcano at 19:59 UTC and 20:02 on 4. July 2023. The magnitudes was Mw3,3 and Mw3,9.

Two green stars on top of each other in Bárðarbunga volcano in Vatnajökull glacier.
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This is normal activity and happens because of inflation in Bárðarbunga volcano.

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Earthquake swarm in Fagradalsfjall mountain

Today (4. July 2023) there has been a earthquake swarm in Fagradalsfjall mountain. Largest earthquake had a magnitude of Mw1,6 and at the writing of this article there have not been any earthquakes with magnitude above Mw2,0. This might change without warning.

Red dots in Fagradalsfjall and yellow and blue dots in other places on Reykjanes peninsula.
Earthquake activity on Reykanes peninsula. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Smaller earthquakes swarms sometimes seems to happen before an eruption in Fagradalsfjall mountain. The current earthquake swarm has all signs of dyke intrusion. If that is going to result in eruption now is impossible to know.

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Reykjanes peninsula might be one large volcano

It was in the news today (3. July 2023), since inflation has been detected from GPS data on Reykjanes peninsula since start of April. What was told in a interview on Bylgjan (radio channel) and later published on Vísir.is news website (link below, but the whole thing is in Icelandic) is that all of Reykjanes peninsula is inflating. What is also starting to show in the GPS data is that there might not be separate volcanoes on Reykjanes peninsula, this might also have happened in the year 2020 – 2021, before the first eruption in Fagradalsfjall mountain. All of Reykjanes peninsula might be one large volcano, extending from Hengill to Eldey or Eldeyjarboða, the south end might have uncertain location. This changes everything as that means that it can erupt at any location on the Reykjanes peninsula without warning and the whole area is now in an eruption cycle.

The current period of inflation started in April and is now at 2,5cm (25mm) and is centered at the last eruption location in Fagradalsfjall mountain. That means the most likely location of next eruption is going to be Fagradalsfjall mountain. This inflation is also going to trigger large earthquakes on Reykjanes peninsula in next few weeks to months until an eruption starts. Along with the normal amount of small earthquakes that have been happening since April on the whole of Reykjanes peninsula.

I don’t know when or how long it is going to take to change the official definition of the Reykjanes peninsula. Because this is going to require more research and data collection for the scientists in Iceland. This also means a lot of new science papers have to be published and peer-reviewed.

Icelandic news

Fólk á suð­vestur­horninu má búa sig undir reglu­lega jarð­skjálfta (Vísir.is)

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Earthquake in Katla volcano

During the evening of 2. July 2023 at 22:57 UTC an earthquake with the magnitude of Mw3,1 took place in Katla volcano caldera. This was one of the few earthquakes that took place that evening and there has not been any more earthquake activity since then.

Green star in Katla volcano caldera. There are also few blue dots showing older earthquakes, along with few yellow and orange dots.
Earthquake activity in Katla volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Since the last earthquake swarm in Katla volcano. Things have been rather quiet in Katla volcano.

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Update on Katla volcano activity

This is an update on Katla volcano activity. The largest earthquakes in the earthquake swarm during the night had a magnitude of Mw4,4. There where total of eight earthquake with magnitude above Mw3,0 in this earthquake swarm and in total of 58 earthquakes in total according to Icelandic Met Office website. This earthquake activity is ongoing even if currently there are no earthquakes taking place (at the writing of this article).

This earthquake activity was clearly felt in Þórsmörk area and was resulting in people loosing sleep.

Green stars and yellow dots in Katla volcano caldera on the Icelandic Met Office map. Time on map is 30. June, 23, time is 11:15 Icelandic Time.
Earthquake swarm activity in Katla volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

According to news reports on mbl.is there has now been increase in conductivity in Múlakvísl glacier river. This seems to be directly connected to the earthquake swarm activity that took place during the night. There is also more water in the Múlakvísl glacier river, if that is connected is unclear, because of rain in Iceland in recent days, there is general more water in rivers. Harmonic tremor has not started to change. That can happen without warning at any time.

Icelandic News

Rafleiðni fer stígandi í Múlakvísl eftir skjálfta (mbl.is)
Önnur skjálftahrina í Mýrdalsjökli (ruv.is)

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Strong earthquake swarm in Katla volcano

During the night of 30. June 2023 an earthquake swarm started in Katla volcano. At the writing of this article the largest verified earthquake had a magnitude of Mw3,3.

Green star and red dots in Katla volcano caldera.
Ongoing earthquake activity in Katla volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This earthquake swarm is ongoing at the writing of this article. Currently an eruption has not started, if that is going to change is something that just has to show it self in next few hours if this earthquake activity continues to increase. All that can be done for now is to monitor this situation.

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Magma detected deep under Reykjanes peninsula

According to a news on Rúv News there has been detection of magma at considerable depth on Reykjanes peninsula. This magma is actively trying to reach the surface, but has not been successful for now. This has resulted in a lot of dyke intrusions on the Reykjanes peninsula in recent months. Earthquake activity seems to follow each inflation period on the Reykjanes peninsula according to the news.

The magma in the deep crust and in the mantle is going to increase in volume until it can break up the surface. How long that is going to take is something I don’t know. Next eruption cycle is going to start with a large earthquake, just like the last one. Based on all current data that I have.

Rúv news in Icelandic

Jarðskjálftavirkni aukist síðustu daga og vikur (Rúv.is)