Posted on by Jón Frímann

Large earthquake swarm in Katla volcano

At 02:45 UTC a large earthquake swarm did start in Katla volcano. I do not know if this an start of a eruption in Katla volcano or not. For the moment it is too early to know for sure. I have to wait few more min before that becomes clear on the harmonic tremor plots. The largest earthquake so far according to the automatic SIL systems is a ML3.9 earthquake.


The earthquake swarm in Katla volcano. The second green star is from a fake ML3.3 earthquake from yesterday. Copyright of this picture belongs to Iceland Met Office.


The harmonic tremor plot on Slysaalda SIL station at 03:04 UTC on 5 Október 2011. Copyright of this picture belongs to Iceland Met Office.

It takes a few moments to become clear if Katla volcano is starting a eruption or not. I am going to post updates as this situation changes if I have too.

493 Replies to “Large earthquake swarm in Katla volcano”

    1. Currently it is clear that a eruption is not starting. There is little earthquake activity for the moment. But that might change without warning at any time.

      So it is just a wait and see type of situation now.

  7. Katla’s been accelerating its movement toward eruption for the past week. I wish there was more focus on Katla rather than Hierro, because Katla is more massive, more important to world and people’s lives, and this is a once in a life time historic event that many here will never see again.

    There have been no plots here showing the changed patterns of quakes in the past week, but I’ve seen that clearly while pasting the data into GoogleEarth. It’s been fascinating and exciting to see particulaly over the past 5 or so days, well before the big high magnitude swarm of today. The quakes were clearly going in a new direction and changed pattern.

    Now with the current high-magnitude swarm, it is obvious.

    Looks like Wall Street saw it coming before the blog sphere.

    I see 1755 as the most likely outcome.

    1. oh no, i have to fly from oz to ireland friday.hopefully it won’t pop again just yet ahhh

    3. I quit plotting Katla because the plot was always the same as the previous plot, just on the other side. I’d like to do an up close and tight quake vs terrain plot but Iceland doesn’t have any data in the CGIAR-CSI site and I have to make do with lower res data.

      Anyway, more Katla plots will be out later today. R/L stuff first.

  10. It looks like katla is saying ive had a nap now im going to have a dance for a while to keep you all on your toes.

    1. Eventually 100 %. It is not whether Katla will erupt or not, it is when she does that.

  18. We can’t see.
    God is skyrocketing. We cannot see.
    All stations are showing tremor spikes.

  19. It’s just a matter of time now. This can get real ugly, real soon. So stock up on goods. GOD be with you over there.

    Rough& Ready Ca. USA

  20. 4.7 EQ in Greenland Sea, is that showing on your helicorder Jón, or is it to far away?

  21. So far this is rather quiet. There are few hours until the eruption starts, if that happens too start with.

    I would expect a lot more earthquake activity before a eruption. But that might just be wrong given the experience this summer.

    So now, more wait and see what happens next.

      1. No. I am too far away too feel the earthquakes. But the people in Vík and close to Katla volcano would have felt this earthquakes quite well.

  24. NASA issued a CME alert, which will arrived on earth around UTC 10 am, October 5, 2011.

    So we have a perfect storm about 5 hours away.

    1. Darn! What time is it in Iceland? I thought it was because it is still night…

      2. Renato –
        It is 5:10 in Iceland. Sunrise is at 7:47 am. I think the Mila cam is working, but it is too dark to see anything.

      1. Thanks, Gitta.
        I think so too.
        The other cams are working fine.
        I think this is the kind of swarm we are going to see hereafter until she decides to go.

    3. Easy pal, easy. At night there’s no light coming to earth that the cams could capture. It’s not the end of anything. And with the announced CME I’m not afraid for my iPhone… 🙂
      Relax and read Jon who will keep us fed with the most actual infos.

      2. Well said, GeoLoco. Wonder if you’ll be able to sleep without peeping in every now and then. 🙂

      3. I’m not! 🙂

        I went to work very early today. Very, very hard to do anything else than surfing around the different info sources. Very hard. Dammit.

  26. This is the largest swarm at Katla that I have seen since Eyjafjallajökull.

    1. Go ahead, Jón. You’ll be hearing the noise soon, I suppose. Take a nap. It will be a long week.

  29. There can be up too 8 hours until something more happens in Katla volcano. So this might take a while. But the shortest period from the earthquakes too start and until a eruption starts (documented) is about 1 hour. Currently that has been surpassed already.

    I stress, if a eruption starts. This might just be a earthquake swarm. But it is my view that this is something more then just a simple earthquake swarm in Katla volcano caldera.

    1. Take a nap, Jón. We’ll be watching, anyway.
      We have been waiting for something like that, haven’t we?
      This is no Katla mongering, folks. Lady K is making up her mind. Just wonder how angry she’ll get. Hope not much.
      Weird that stations so far apart are showing tremor spikes and also this EQ at Hekla and also the one in Greenland sea…

  30. i hope u will be ok and the rest of europe too. i think katla will erupt very very soon and it will be very bad. 🙁 peace my friend

    2. I’m afraid of politicians, not of volcanoes… Fear the Euro, fear economists, but if you listen to geologists there’s no need to fear earth.

      Sorry guys for sounding a little pathetic on this one…

      1. You’re absolutely right! Earth has never killed all life on this planet, but politicians have tried it a few times… And some of the experiments are still going on!

  31. It seems the swarm is subsiding now. But that was scary! I might as well try to get some rest.

  32. Krakatoa in Indonisa is about to blow as well. If both these big mamas go count on a new ice age.

    2. And Yellowstone, Lake Toba, Tambora, Campi Flegrei… We can open the Decan Traps again if You’d like – so there’s even no need to pray for an asteroid.
      No doubt volcanism can have considerable effects on whatever you want, but there’s really no need to fear a cataclysm right now.
      Look at Turkey, so You can be a little bit afraid for Izmir and Istanbul – millions of people exposed to a potential biiiiig earthquake in “geologically now”.
      Sorry, guys. Have to leave. Need to go buy water and beans for the next 2 years… 🙂

    3. Please stop that silly talk…we´re not talking about a Toba event here. No need to try to scare people! People on Iceland know how to handle this and they do not think this is the end of the world, so should you! Read up on volcanoes before you make such a silly statement

  33. yep renato if katla erupt we are dommed for some weeks or months 🙁 but like always katla will not erupt its just a warning i think but we need to be prepared

    1. Not much differently from Eyjafjöll, except for the joküllhlaups. I wouldn’t feel comfortable if I lived in Vík, right now.

  35. Katla rehearses some dance steps, and suddendly all the scare-mongerers of the whole planet are running like hell… 🙁

      3. Link to a tutorial? I’m ready for rehearsal and hard, hard work. I owe this to all the 2012ers of the world.
        Today, after work and having the kids in bed, I look forward to read them at GLP and other sites of this kind. The maya were wrong, it’ll be december 2011… Where the hell is planet X when you need it? 🙂

      5. Carl. He says Hekla would go before Katla. If not we’ll have nude pas-de-un-seul.

      6. Who knows, Hekla can be fast… 🙂
        But I’d like it pretty much to see “the naked Carl pas de un”…

    2. Yes, it has happened before. The largest quakes are now, however, stronger than before (during the last 10-20 years).

    1. It shows a 4.7 in Greenland and then EMSC says there was a 4.1 in Godabunga so-called cryptodome.

  39. Katla is not erupting currently. El Hierro volcano will likely be a small, sub-ocean eruption and hardly newsworthy. Anak Krakatau (correct spelling) is in and has been in a cone building phase for decades. Tambora in Indonesia will likely have small eruptions, but is currently incapable of bringing mass doom. Katla is currently the only active volcano showing signs of increased activity that has any potential to disrupt our lives North of the equator. Keep facts as facts, and leave the tabloids for the tabloids.

    2. It has been erupting on and off for years now and will do so in the future probably. Wouldnt get too exited about that.

      And no, no new ice age coming.

  41. Good Morning folks. Well! Katla is not happy that Hierro and Anak Krakatoa are in the limelight. She wants some attention too!
    Also Now I have woken and into my second coffee she may go back to sleep until Friday night!
    As always with Volcanoes in Iceland and elsewhere… Who knows?
    Seriously these times are historic. When Katla does erupt then there is so much more information now for future generations to fall back on and use for predictions.
    I have said it before and will say it again.
    This Blog of Jon’s is a valuable tool for education and research.
    How many running commentaries about what is happening are there? How many people are seeing so many different aspects of these volcanoes behaviours and commenting? Not only that but they are substantiating their observations with evidence from the many tools we have at the click of a mouse. (My thanks to IMO for making their information available to many amateur but skilled volcanotogists.)
    Each of us who post with questions and observations are playing a small, very miniscule, part in helping the world become a safer place.
    I now sit back with you all and observe what happens…….. and wait for the doomsday posters and scare mongerers to reach for their tranquillising pills and wonder why 2012 is happening in 2011!!!

    1. I’d ask: How many of them are right-minded & realistic? Not many, I think Jon & Eric maybe the ones of the very few in that sense…

    1. Thanks, Gitta.
      I need a coffee too, like Diana. Have not yet slept after a long day’s journey! 🙂
      That’s why I say stupidities.. well, more often than when I sleep well. 🙂

  43. And to emphazise what Jack @ Finland said earlier. Please..Keep this forum scientific based on facts not doom scenarios. If you want that sort of crap go to GLP or some other P.O.S site.

    Now lets wait and see what our dear miss katla will come up with. Some quakes still going. I would expect at the very least a jökullhlaup but that remains to be seen.

  45. I’m no doom and gloomer, but from what I saw of last year, the EU can be in for a real kick in the family jewels. (again) But our local global warming crowd might be in for a little shock.

    1. Nah, first wait untill it actually erupts, and secondly, for airdisruption all the factors such as wind and ash size have to be right. Global warming? What collosal things do you expect? VEI5 is not much more as Grimsvotn this year.

      1. Pinatubo was VEI6, and it affected a hefty -0,5 C during one year only…

  46. Whats interesting is that the supposed M3.9 at 2:52 is appearing smaller on the helicorder then the M3.3 at 4:11

    I bet, when reviewed, the latter one is of a higher magnitude.

  47. Looks like this is the run up to an eruption soon. If she turns off again now, she is a tease. 🙂
    These quakes will carry on now until eruption I presume. Perhaps there will be bigger quakes as this build up gets closer to eruption.

  48. There are some interesting quakes at circa 5-6 km depth at Skógar. A path way to magma for Godabunga’s cryptodome?
    05:45:38 63.545 -19.365 8.7 km 2.3 51.99 6.6 km ENE of Skógar

    1. There are some interesting quakes at circa 5-6 km depth at Skógar. A path way to magma for Godabunga’s cryptodome? My comments are waiting for moderation. Excuse me if I talk too much. I think I’d rather go to bed.

      1. I noticed it too, my theory was ice fracturing due to a possible jokulhlaup, but that does not seem to be the case.

      2. Pieter I was wondering That too particularly those quakes under the glacial tongue on the south flank of Myrdasjokull. I think it is Solheimajokull.. But when I thought again the quakes from a Jokullhaup would occur under the deeper and higher Icecap. I am also interested to see what will occur at Jon’s Interesting spot on the top edge of the southern flank near Gvendarfell.
        http://atlas.lmi.is/kortasja_en/

  50. The location for the majority of the swarm and larger EQ’s seem to be slightly west of the old kaldera from 1955, stretching towards the larger 1755 kaldera.

    The tremor plots all have quieted down somewhat again.

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