Posted on by Jón Frímann

Bogus news story going around about Katla volcano

There is a bogus news story about Katla volcano. The bogus news are that Katla volcano is just few days from erupting. This is wrong. At the moment there are no signs that Katla volcano is about to erupt. There is currently a relative quiet in Katla volcano, compared to the activity several weeks ago. But that activity started after the minor eruption in Katla volcano in July 2011 (this summer). This bogus news is also annoying the staff at Iceland Met Office, how are now getting phone calls about this news. Where other professionals are trying to get more information on this or just trying to figure out if the news is correct or not.

For the moment, it is all quiet in Katla volcano. If there are any changes. I am sure to write about it here with up to date information on what is going on. While the Yellow Press is looking for big-foot or something. So once again, the yellow press has it wrong and spreads minor panic following this poor news reporting.

News about this in Icelandic.

Nágrannaþjóðir óttast Kötlugos á næstu dögum (DV.is, Icelandic)
Norskir miðlar: Óttast flóðbylgju í kjölfar Kötlugoss – Getur gosið hvenær sem er – Kötlu illt í maganum (Pressan.is, Icelandic, Picture from the 1918 eruption in this news)

140 Replies to “Bogus news story going around about Katla volcano”

    1. That is a bit conflicting “There has been a reduction in the emission of gases, reflected in the low values of sulphur dioxide measured, both coming from craters and fields of volcanic fissures”
      I would have thought they used the wrong word there change reduction to increase and it makes sense to me.

  2. It is strange how stories from a year or a few years ago re-appear on the net from time to time. I think it is caused by people clicking on “similar links” or “stories like that”
    I may be wrong but I think thats what a Norwegian reporter may have done, once he/she read the story (from a long time ago)without checking the date, probbably just rang an expert for an opinion and thats what you get.
    I call it delayed action Internet. I may well be wrong but I have seen similar things frequently.

    1. Partly.

      From a media sense, occasionally editors will drag out an old story, dust it off a bit a re-release it. The situation that led to the original scare story is still the same, so the premises of its release are still as valid as when they first put it out.

      I call it laziness.

  3. I agree with Jon. Katla cannot erupt in the next days (unless the eruption is a repeat of July 2011). This is because a powerful eruption will need much more pressure from magma pushing upwards from greater depths, something that hasn’t happened yet. And has happened before Eyjafjallajokull or in El Hierro, and in many other big eruptions.

    But when those earthquakes start, I think we might be only a few weeks (or even days) from a large eruption of Katla.

    Furthermore, a normal size Katla eruption is only slighty bigger than the eruption of Grimsvotn this year. So, there is no reason for fear, outside of Iceland. Even in Iceland, the only danger is to Vík (very close to Katla) and from the flood that follows. Outside of the local area, we only worry with from ash fall.

    1. and now that you have said this aroud the time of the olympic, a large cell of high pressure will be situated over green land drawing in air from iceland over northwest europe… at this point Katla will blow and we will have chaos lol

  4. Geez. Same old *stuff, different day.

    Katla may be ready, from a volumetric sense, but it is not ready enough. Katla will decide when it’s time and not a moment sooner.

  5. Update 25/11 – 13:32
    – PEVOLCA has decided that all evacuated people are allowed to return to their houses. As the La Restinga people were already allowed to sleep at home, this decision was taken to allow the return of the families of the Las Puntas area who had to be evacuated after the M 4.6 earthquake from a couple of weeks ago.
    Pevolca maintains however the Red Alert for La Restinga (municipality of El Pinar) and the yellow alert for the rest of the island.
    The only Civil Protection extraordinary measures that are currently maintained is the closure of the beaches of Puerto Naos and Tacorón as well as the maritime NO-GO area (radius 4 km).

  6. Katla will be ready when she damn well decides that she’s ready. We humans can’t dictate when a volcano will erupt.

    1. Pretty much agree that Katla will go when she is ready and not before, but surely thats the same for every volcano. Thought the point of this blog was to discuss possible theories, ideas and outcomes which surely would also be about how long any particular Volcano takes to erupt after a swarm of x amount of tremors or a certain sized tremor . But to say she will go when she is damn ready is like stating the obvious. Perhaps ive missed some post earlier as only getting latest posts.
      We all know not to take much notice of the media, they ( Express) and others forecast a snow filled October and November with below average temperatures. That story sold lots of papers in the UK. I knew from my knowledge it was never going to happen. Sure enough record high temperatures here in UK. BUT IT SOLD PAPERS – same with katla idiot says mass disruption etc, millions buy papers, read it, nothing happens but life moves on and we forget. But the papers made money on a story.
      Unless of course some media reporter hacked into Katla’s internal phone.

  7. If there would be a burst of quakes in Myrdalsjokull right now, like a few quakes around 3-4 mag, then many people would not be as cool about this Katla business.
    We dont know what sets her off, it could be days or weeks of constant quakes, or just a few 4-5 pointers.
    When she erupts, it could be a small eruption like 1918, or a big one, even a big one plus Eldgjá.
    Or a big one plus Eldgjá, followed by Hekla, if we are really unlucky.
    Eldgjá was worse than Laki, and that one wasn’t nice at all.
    Only time will tell how this goes.

  8. Yeah, just heard the news at midnight on the national radio here in Norway. Strange how they can run with something with no vetting of the credibility from experts.

    There was an event though in the afternoon today(Friday 25th). It appears clearly on this tremor plot; http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla/god_trem.gif But is also visible on all the adjacent SIL stations around MYR. http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Katla/

    In addition the low hertz plot is very active. Which could ,I guess, mean something of a more molten character is moving about… But when is it not? 😉

  9. More about the bogus new story: Since I live in Norway I’ve been able to trace the source of it for whoever cares. It was delivered by national news agency NTB in the morning of 26th. At the beginning of the article they refer to a story from the Weather Network about inhabitants of Vik at the foot of Myrdalsjøkull Glacier is preparing for a potential eruption with exersizes in emergency management. This is from mid october, so it’s hardly news worthy at all. http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=villagers_prepare_for_katla__151011 Which again is taken from a Reuters source.

    They have some unique content in the form of a speculative commenting from a proffessor of Geology at the University in Oslo, Johan Petter Nystuen. Among the things he say is the threat of a tsunami In North West Europe from a Jökullhaup…

    Link to the story at NRK(national broadcaster): http://www.nrk.no/nyheter/verden/1.7890642

    All in all it appears as shoddy journalism from beginning to end, besides the interview with the proffessor it is more or a less a direct copy and paste of the one and a half month old Reuters news story. Pretty sad stuff from the national news agency.

      1. Thanks Karen

        Looking for patterns there is a small indication that there is a lull after a big release of energy, but otherwise the variation seems to remain within a fairly wide range.

  11. A classical case of something becoming more sensational every time it’s retold. Someone in Skógarfoss said that Katla could erupt in ten days, two years or ten years, nobody knows. That becomes “could erupt in a few days” in summary of the NTB story, and of course when the story gets retold again, it gets more and more likely that it *will* erupt within a few days.

    But the original statement of “ten days, two years or ten years” is truthful enough, isn’t it? Or do you suggest that the warning will definitely be more than ten days (disregarding unreasonable hindsight)?

    The story also says that meltwater could trigger a tsunami that would even hit Europe. That sounds like a stretch, or what do you think?

    1. At he moment it seems unlikely that Katla is about to erupt, because its quiet time in Iceland, but there was also quiet time, shortly before Grimsvotn last time.
      Personally i dont like this quiet time, i feel more comfortable when the whole island i shaking more or less, as it usually does 🙂

      There will be a Tsunami when this happens, how big it is depends on size of the eruption. A small one could be around 3-400,000 m3 per second, and a big one would be around 1 million m3 per second.
      This is not a small glacier, so there is plenty of ice to melt.
      There have been some changes on the coast since the last flood in 1918.
      Surtsey is there now, Jólnir is under the surface,Surtur Junior and a 100 m high ridge called Surtla, so the landscape the Tsunami will go over may be very different from last time.
      http://www.surtsey.is/pp_isl/alm_3.htm
      I am not a expert on Tsunamis, but i find it unlikely that a Tsunami from Katla would cause any damage in Europe, but it could be dangerous to ships and boats in its path.

      If the eruption is very large we could see big icebergs floating down the sands towards the ocean.
      http://mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2011/11/25/risajaki_a_jokulsarloni/

      I wish we could stop all volcanoes erupting in Iceland, but Iceland is a volcano island, and quite active if one looks at the history, she has been good to us lately though, lets hope that lasts a bit longer.

      1. People, let’s be clear. There is no significant tsunami from Katla, at least for Europe. There is some effect in south Iceland coast, there might be flood in Vik, Westman Islands, Eyrabakki and the eastern side of the Reykjanes peninsula.

        But this is not a tsunami. In a earthquake tsunami, a slip happens in the bottom of the sea, and then it moves an emourmous mass of water, which when it get to the coast, it concentrates its force within a wave of 10 meters. That is a brutal force, that can effect even in the other side of the ocean.

        What will happen with Katla eruption, is that a huge amount of ice will met and will hit the ocean. This cause something like a tidal wave, that will strike the places nearby but quickly loses momentum. There will be non wave at all even in Scotland. Hope this is clear.

    2. And by the way: There is no village in Iceland called “Skógarfoss”, this is just the name of a waterfall. The village nearby is called Skógar.

  12. The essence of the newspaper article was really about increased seismic activity in Katla. It is true that it was spiced with some exaggerations and inaccuracies by the jurnalist. This happens quite frequently in newspaper articles.

  16. Hey guys, I saw something just an hour ago, from near our home here in south Iceland. I went outside to take pictures because it’s a perfect clear icy day, and so I could see clearly Eyjafjallajokull in the distance (no steam this time), but I saw what look like a column of steam far away over Myrdalsjokull. I took photos with my camera, I will upload them. This look what I often saw as steam coming from Eyjafjallajokull and the steam coming from Hengill drillhole these last months. The “steam” above the glacier remained there for 15 mins, so it still could be a cloud formation.

    I am going again to the hill to the see if I can see something. The weather is becoming more cloudy now so I dont think I can see Myrdalsjokull from here anymore. And the sun is also setting. I will upload the photo in this next hour, so you guys can give me your opinion. Until then, I am going outside to try to see Katla again, in my eastern horizon.

    And remember, I am the type of person very skeptical when people tell me they see steam coming from Katla. But this time, I saw something I am not sure it is really a cloud.

    ps: there is nothing showing up in Katla webcam. But what I saw was somewhere over the northwest part of Myrdalsjokull.

    1. Now, the sky is not as clear.
      But I cannot see anything special there now, at least as big as it was before.
      I think it was probably clouds, with a vertical appearance.

      1. I was gazing at the web-cam earlier, wishing for snow, and I thought I saw steam. I dismissed it as a weird cloud straight away, but I’d be interested to see you photo!

      2. Do you have an infrared camera? Compare both steams’ images, you may see some difference.

    1. Yes, Plenty of action at Sea. Saw this also at midday (12:30 UTC) too. This time around I made screenshots for future reference.

      However there was transitient on South-Iceland strain meter between 16:30 and 17:20 UTC. Did anyone by chance see what meter and how large spike? Before this scale was +/- 3,000 before jumping to 40,000 (more than ten fold). This is (in my opinon) one change IMO should go slow into making, as for us (me at least) is “worse” as one has no way of knowing what happened, except monitoring full time. I urge IMO to change to better graphics and again put up the “corrected graphics”.

      http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/hekla/borholu_thensla.html

    1. In fact there were 3 deep earthquakes in recent days (seems that this number has slowly and gradually increasing). I found interesting that 2 of these deep quakes were under Eyjafjallajokull, and the other beneath NE of Katla.

      2. 10km NE of Selfoss, between Hestfjall and Skálholt
        About 50km E of Hekla, 100km ENE of Katla.

    1. It is just human noise. Nothing else. This is common during the weekend and in the summer when people are around that geophone. It is located in a summer house. That is why this happens during the weekends.

      2. This is a error in the computer that makes the images. But currently the computers that are connected to the geophones makes the images. As to normally I use the main computer to make the images.

        I am trying to fix this now. This sometimes happens. Thanks for letting me know of this error.

  22. Off-topic: Quite cold weather here in Iceland. I have -9ºC at the moment, and keeps going down. We have 20cm of snow in the ground. Thingsvellir, close here, registers already -13ºC, and about -18ºC north of Vatnajokull.

      1. That depends on the direction of the wind. Its not unusual although I have also seen some really warm novembers (this one was so far pretty mild).

    2. The opposite in Norway. This morning I have +9.2 ºC here in Oslo 349 m.a.s.l. The pressure is 974 hPa, the lowest this year. It’s sunny and calm, though.

      On this day a year ago the high of the day was -10,4 ºC.

  23. Anyone know where to find Carl le Strange’s blog?? Not that I’d defect from here Jon! 😉

  25. Bob looks quite impressive at the moment with the steaming rocks. I just saw one shoot into the air quite a way as it came to the surface.

  26. Sustained and concentrated fizzing and foaming on the sea at El Hierro. Coastgaurd boat watching on at close quarters. Is there any way they could have known that this was going to develop?

    1. An unsettled waveform and spectrogram since this am means that they are probably being more vigilant.

      1. That’s a great photograph. It shows perfectly what we are looking at. It must be a surreal experience to cruise about as that stuff is popping all around.

      5. They don’t look like magma, though, more like coal or peat, wouldn’t you say?

        Anyone know what they are chemically? They are hollow, too, rather than sponge filled like the earlier ejections.

        It is a fascinating eruption!

  28. Hello!

    How come the activity on this site has dropped to rockbottom? Been away for 2 weeks and when I came home yesterday I was surprised to see the change in ppl active here.
    Maybe an eruption has wiped out half of the community??! ^^

    1. A few people caused a lot of controversy over off topic comments and although Jon said they were OK in a reasonable amount still a lot of people got fed-up and moved to another site.
      In a nutshell.

  29. I’d say, another forum. Dropped there once to check, found only non-volcanic i.e. off-topic chat, so I’ll stay away…

    1. Not at all in my opinion, plenty of tech discussions going on for example this weekend – you may want to click over now to check what’s up.

    2. Nope, thats not true. Its mixed – like here. Although there is actually less of-topic here. And ranting against other blogs or forums is kind of lame…

    1. I think more likely they got fed-up with being attacked by trolls. It happened to me too and I didn’t like it!!! I don’t blame Jon for that though, trolls appear everywhere.

    2. I hope it all settles down and everybody remains friends, just for the suggestion of having a forum site Jon has been deserted by half of the Internet.
      I think that is sad. I will not leave here 🙂

      1. KarenZ, I totally agree with you, I do the same, I read here but post seldom as there is seldom things that I know. I learn a lot from both sites though and for that I am extremely grateful to everyone who shares their knowledge with me.

    4. Fiona says:
      November 27, 2011 at 16:19

      “I think the people that left were extremely childish to be honest”

      Yep.. childish. Which is why, after a few hours of laboring over how to do some trigonometric juggling to determine the straight line path from a hypocenter to a seismic station, I put it in a format that could easily be transcribed to pretty much any spreadsheet program and offered it up to Jon.

      I don’t have access to phase arrival times in Iceland, and Jon may not have access to the phase arrivals at SIL/IMO. But he has his own gear and could make use of the spreadsheet calcs if he sees fit.

      But… I guess I was just being childish. My apologies.

      FYI… (in case you forgot), this blog was also offshoot of another blog. This one focused principally on Icelandic volcanoes, about which Jon is about as close to an expert amateur as you can get. Eruptions was about erupting volcanoes in general. Each has their purpose.

    5. I am still here and maybe I am in my second childhood but I go there too, in fact I go anywhere if I can experience and learn something new……Just like a child 🙂

  32. Don’t start all this again! Carl’s latest blog is neither off topic nor “chat”! Though yes there’s plenty of good humoured banter inbetween…..

  33. As I mentioned recently, I had a little vigilante BUR signal, since it goes in a straight line without oscillations, after almost two days without wavering I fear that the sensor must be faulty.

  36. On the AVCAN group on Facebook, this video just got posted, dual view on the emerging floaters, and the vessels and helicopters that approaced them during this afternoon. Smoke could be seen almost continueously this afternoon, and the floaters appear to be rather pure lava balloons instead of restingolitas (bobcorn).

  38. Let me say a couple of things.

    1. I read this blog every day, I just do not comment that often. I still find a lot of usefull stuff about Iceland and its volcanoes in here.
    2. Regarding the blog that I write in, quite against popular belief, it is not my blog. I am the editor in chief. There are quite a few that writes posts in there.
    3. The tech level is extremely high compared to most blogs, some of the posts are actually peer-reviewed. Just avoid the friday evening posts, they are almost exclusive chat. We like it that way. Why? We have talked to each other for a long time, and we like to just… talk sometimes. Our choice, our blog.
    4. It is not a blog about Icelandic volcanos, it has a broader theme than that. If you prefer Icelandic volcanoes only, well then you are at the premier blog allready. We do write about Icelandic volcanoes now and then though. Why? Because Iceland and its volcanoes are hellishly interesting.

    What a person likes, or do not like is up to the individual. Most people like many things. And if a person does not like a thing, well then just do not read it.
    Personally I follow this blog, I follow Eriks Eruptions blog, and then I follow other blogs to on many issues.
    There are 7 billion people out there, enough for all of us to have our readers, and most read several blogs.

    Some people like Swedish meatballs, others like sausages, and some like fish. Live with it.

    1. Hope it’s going well, Carl. I would drop in to visit, but it’s behind the Great Firewall and therefore presumably deemed inappropriate for popular consumption. I make no comment. 😉

      2. It’s wordpress generally that’s blocked, so I don’t think it’s personal… Actually, most blogs are banned over here (this one must have slipped through).

    2. @Carl: Thank you for your thoughts! That’s what I did and will do, read the stuff I find interesting & worth the time spent.

    3. I think its a good thing to have more blogs about volcanoes.
      I suspect when something happens, like a big eruption in Iceland for example, Jón’s server will probably start glowing because of traffic.
      Lots of people keep an eye on this because Icelandic volcanoes can have some effect on fligth traffic, weather and other things in the Western world.
      Blogs like this one and Carls, can offer people some insight into whats happening and what may be expected, and also be a database for the future.

  40. Sorry, was a coast guard boat after all – my blunder. But it was indeed chasing floaters.

    1. The coast guard did an excellent job also, close up to the vent. Great to watch this Sunday show. The strong tremor continues and this would mean continuing emissions of lava.

  41. I’m going to post this OT note here because it is also curiously OnTopic …

    Chinese developer livid at Iceland’s rejection of resort

    (Reuters) – A multimillionaire Chinese developer is livid at Iceland’s rejection of his plan to build a sprawling resort, saying it reveals western “hypocrisy and deep prejudice.”

    Foreigners also wrongly assume Chinese companies automatically have ties to China’s military, Huang Nubo said in comments published in Chinese media on Sunday.

    The Iceland government on Friday rejected a bid by Huang to buy 300 sq km (186 sq miles) on the island nation because it did not meet legal requirements on foreign ownership.

    Some commentators had said the plan raised questions over regional security because of Iceland’s strategic location in the Arctic where a number of nations are competing for resources, suggesting that Huang could be a surrogate for Chinese expansionism.

    “I’m not buying land, I’m investing in tourism infrastructure,” Huang said in an interview with Sina Finance, an online news service.

    “The difficulties that Chinese enterprises encounter are numerous, like the view that state-owned enterprises represent your country, that whatever your background is you’re a military business and touch on national security.” …

    Huang had agreed to pay 1 billion Iceland krona ($8.3 million) to buy Grimsstadir farm in northeast Iceland, where he planned to build a golf course, hotel and outdoor recreation area.

    But Iceland’s Interior Ministry said on Friday that the deal did not meet legal requirements for land sales to companies outside the European Economic Area, including that company directors must be Icelandic citizens or permanent residents for at least five years, and that 80 percent of shares in purchasing firms should be held by Icelandic citizens.

    The deal would have marked the first major Chinese investment in Iceland, which is still recovering from the collapse of its banks in 2008 during the global financial crisis.

    Having visited Iceland 35+ years ago and having read of Carl’s Icelandic exploits in this blog, I would like to reassure Mr. Huang that it is nothing personal and nothing about being Chinese. It’s about an island country with a long cultural history and a very small population.

    1. Have you priced pecans lately?

      The Chinese market is gorging on them. I have heard news reports of pecans going for as much as a nickel apiece.

      Too bad we can’t lace them with Viagra™ and make the country explode. It would serve them right for poisoning our dogs with melamine.

    2. Now he’s looking at Finland. Does he know that Finland does not have any coast to the Northern Ice Sea?

      1. O, my goodness!
        They are also trying to exploit iron and water (hydroelectric) resources in my country.
        Isn’t it enough what they’re doing to world’s economics?
        Talk about free trade…

  42. If anyone at IMO is looking: any chance of fixing Svartakot? Something looked like it was happening over there.

    Speaking of things happening, just what is going on at Vestari Saudahnjukur?
    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/vsh.gif
    It looks a great deal like a denser and heavier version of the tremorring around Krafla:
    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/kvo.gif
    We were discussing it a bit some weeks back, when the noise started to increase from its normal very quiet level, and the consensus was that it was due mainly to the proximity (?) of a hydrothermal plant. If that’s the case, how would the still-increasing noise (and sharp increase in spikiness of the low-frequency vurves) tie in with run-off patterns? I know there’s been a recent storm, but that finished when? Two days ago? In general, the graph doesn’t seem to reflect weather much at all, in my opinion…

    1. Re. Svartakot: Carl over at the other blog was talking about Trölladyngja perhaps waking up. The big shield volcano is not far from that station.

    2. Re. Svartakot: Carl over at the other blog was talking about Trölladyngja perhaps waking up. The big shield volcano is not far from that station.

      Vestari Saudahnjukur: This could be influenced by Kárahnjúkar which is the biggest hydrothermal plant of today’s Iceland and is situated in the vicinity of the station. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rahnj%C3%BAkar_Hydropower_Plant
      On the other hand, it is situated in a zone of active volcanism, see: https://notendur.hi.is/fs/Hazard_report_March18_2005.pdf

      1. Thanks for the reply, Inge – interesting. Trolladyngja… is part of the Bárdarbunga system, right?

        Re: Vestari Sauadhnjukur, what baffles me if it’s the hydrothermal plant is why it has increased in noise levels so spectacularly since August. I wonder whether anyone could find out whether they’ve changed their procedures in any way during the autumn? Drilling in a different area, for example? If it’s not them, it’s an awful lot of tremor for quite a long time – but no earthquakes, so I’m not too concerned.

      1. China (Nanjing) – been here for a year, and another year left on the contract. After that… who knows? But hopefully somewhere I can read blogs again!

      2. Yes, that’s it, Inge – there’s a lot I can’t get at, such as Youtube (all Lurking’s moving plots, alas) and even file sharing software like yousendit. Sometimes I can barely get onto google or the BBC either, but those are intermittent…

    1. I do not know yet. It is quiet for the moment. So there is less traffic on the site. That means less ad income. As for donations. I am not sure yet. But I fear that it might do so in the short term.

      As for the long term. I think that the reader base is going to recover.

  45. Why blame the media when a professional such as Professor Pall Einarsson has gone on for years about the link between Katla and Eyjafjallajökull? And still goes on about this by now disproven pet theory of his even if it’s well over 18 months since the Eyjafjallajökull eruptions began.

    With irresponsible scientists who speculate without substance and refuse to give up their pet theories, why so harsh on the uneducated press?

    1. Well, speaking scientifically, no-one has proved anything yet in this issue.

      And remember, lack of proof for does not equal to proof against. So, I consider it still being a hypothesis, or a non-tested idea.

      Even if Katla erupted within 2 years from Eyja, it does not necessarily proof anything about the connection. As the one who wishes to give a proof for it, has to give a proof for the type of connection, too!

      1. Yes, the criterion of repeatability – “under a given set of circumstances, this will happen”.

        But I disagree about the level of proof. Prof Einarsson has unequivocally, both in speeches and print, said that there is a link and that an eruption of E is followed by an eruption of K. Since that has not happened, the parameters specified by his theory has not been met and is thus disproven.

        Btw, “eruption” is understood to be a substantial eruption (according to Dr PE as well) and not the minor subglacial effusion of this summer.

      2. Statistically… it is very unlikely that Eyja will erupt without a Katla eruption within about 20 years prior, or following.

        Thats just from how often Katla erupts… on it’s own.

      3. Don’t you just love ‘logical positivism’ …
        (Hope this hasn’t been posted yet)

        “The most likely explanation for this is that Katla is, in actual fact, always on the brink of erupting. This we saw in 1999, when there seems to have been a small eruption of a similar type to this [latest small eruption this July]. That one was accompanied by unrest and changes to seismic activity and increased geothermal heat in the subsequent years,” Páll Einarsson, University of Iceland geophysics professor, told RÚV.

        … In that regard Katla is just like other volcanoes: “Sometimes it produces big eruptions, sometimes it produces small eruptions, sometimes it produces tiny eruptions; so it is not always a disaster when Katla erupts,” Páll says.

        http://www.icenews.is/index.php/2011/11/23/amid-simmering-speculation-iceland-volcano-keeps-intentions-quiet/#more-28031

        There is also a history of activity at Fimmvörðuháls and it’s co-interaction with Eyjafjallajökull and Katla. Not to mention substantial earth quakes near Vik. …

      4. It is just known about 3 times that eruptions in Eyjafjallajökull correlated with eruptions in Katla since Iceland was colonised in the 10th century. In 920, it is not known which volcano erupted first, in 1612 neither, and then there was first an eruption in Eyjafjallajökull from 1821-23 and Katla followed in 1823. http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2010/03/21/thurfum_ad_fylgjast_med_kotlu/?ref=morenews , For Katla eruption dates, see: http://earthice.hi.is/page/ies_katlahistorical

        But there has been argument about that in the whole, Katla had 2 eruptions per century since the 10th century and Eyjafjallajökull just these 3. So the correlation could only be by chance also. It’s not yet proved.

    1. It’s also interesting that the southern end coincides with that “interesting spot” which has seen a lot of little earthquakes for some time. Could it be the end of a large dyke, the rest being picked out by the line? Maybe… but I guess with five slightly wiggly points it could also be coincidence.

      It does seem that the clusters of quakes around the caldera recently have been mostly in linear arrangements, though, which have been interpreted as dyke intrusions. What I find interesting is that hardly any of them follow the same line as a previous one – I guess it’s quite complicated under there…

  47. Yes it must be very complicated, the volcanoes that form with glaciers are strange they do not do the expected.

    It seems that Katla is back to normal from the quiet period, I wonder when the next 3+ quake will happen. Perhaps this week?

  48. There have been some frost-quakes been taking place. They stopped today as it got warmer. But it is going to get extremely cold this week in Iceland. So expect a lot of frost-quakes to take place as the ground freezes over in Iceland.

    The frost is forecaster to go down to -20C in north Iceland and down to -26C in the higher parts of Iceland.

    1. Yes Jon. In the satellite one can see the continuous entry of air (and clouds) from the northwest, directly from Greenland. It has been like that for already a week, and it will continue to be this way. This allows for very cold air, directly from Greenland ice cap, into Iceland.

      I have one more funny note to make. The coldest winter recorded in Iceland was in January 1918, which was actually a few months BEFORE Katla eruption. Winter of 1918 was also a record for the rest of Europe.

      Now, we could be on the way for another record winter in Iceland (my wish), which could be followed by an eruption from Katla (again, my wish). My foolish wishes.

  49. To all those who have left (but are still lurking)
    Jon has mentioned on this blog before that he has Aspergers syndrome. A characteristic of this condition is that people with it view the world in a different way. Many have a very black and white perspective and often struggle with expressing empathy. Another common feature is the use of rules to regulate social intercourse and other areas of life, and difficulty when the rules are broken. A positive is that many people with Aspergers are able to focus much more singlemindedly on a given subject, and I suspect this blog wouldn’t have the scientific rigour that distinguishes it were Jon different.

    I’ve been reading this blog for over a year and I can see both the positives and negatives of Jon’s condition in how he manages it. So cut him a bit of slack guys, he’s doing a great job and is an inspiration to many others with this condition.

    1. Rebecca, I would have thought the quiet time in Iceland would be more to do with the quiet time on here than any other factors. One thing I have noticed with every volcano blog I have looked at is that they have their quiet times when the volcanoes are less active. I am sure activity in here will pick up when the volcanic activity also does. That is the nature of a volcano blog.

      Jon, as someone who is a carer for a couple of family menbers who suffer from depression I do hope you are feeling a bit better lately and wish you well on that front. What has happened on here is nothing to do with you, more to do with people who go around forums trying to disrupt them, trolls in other words.

      1. I have been quietly following this fascinating blog for over a year now but never plucked up the courage to comment.
        I think it is an amazing place and will continue to read , with gratitude to Jon and all the others who have made learning so interesting.

    2. Jon is overly rational. No?
      It’s the best part of him.

      I am intrigued each time Jon warns of new developments or explains observed phenomena. There is a quality of reliability to it. That’s what makes it worthwhile to follow what is written here.

    3. This blog still has the readers but now is rid of all the “disturbing” off topic comments. Jon’s posts have the same quality as usual.
      “Tout va bien dans le meilleur des mondes” as Voltaire stated in Candide.
      Stop whining around, put in some scientific and well thought comments about volcanism, come on.

    4. @Rebecca, My Asperger’s syndrome is for the most part just what has been documented elsewhere. But for some reason I do not have any speech issue. But I do have major issue with math (numbers, but most of the time not formals).

      As for the social skills. I manage them with a really complex system of what I call protocols. For most part, it goes fine. But there are certain (men & woman communications) areas of the human communication that do not work so well in Iceland for me. But I found them to work easier and better in Denmark and with people from other countries.

      It is sadly a fact that in Icelandic culture it is built in that people with disorders are some what less able to function in a society. So in Iceland people are given less slack. This has been changing for the past few decades. But the road that needs to be taken is a long one and the trip is not over yet in this regards in Iceland.

      This is why I want to move back to Denmark and stay there. I have better chance of healthy social interaction then I do in Iceland. The reasons are many and I not going to go into all of them here.

      Asperger’s syndrome is nothing to be ashamed of from my point of view now. But it was for a long time (see above why). So today. I use it to get on with my life, not to hold me back as it used to. The change has not been easy and is not yet over for me. I still have many steps to take in that matter.

    5. @ Rebecca. I cannot speak for anyone but myself. I have been lurking here certainly as long as, if not longer than, you. I am aware of the challenges Jon has and commend him on his exceptional achievements here to date and I have every faith that he will go from strength to strength. I think you will find that people have decided here to lurk rather than post as our sense of humour and freedom of “speech” was being stifled. It was certainly nothing to do with Jon, who handled the whole thing magnificently. In fact, he has been exceedingly patient. More so than I would have been! .
      I have various conditions, the worst being old age. I have to live with this and all the nuisances it brings. Grumpiness. Frustration. Forgetfulness. The repeating of stories. The worst bit is that people are patronising and treat me differently than just a few years ago when I was working in a professional and highly responsible job. My wrinkles may be improving, getting deeper by the day, but my brain is as it was, or even better. I am not deaf, so don’t speak slowly or louder. I am not less intelligent so please do not think my sole entertainment should be a singalong, weaving baskets or a game of Bingo…..On here and elsewhere I can be the person I am and be judged by my contribution. I am on a level with everyone else.
      @ Jon. You are your own person. You are who you are. You are the young man who has exceptional knowledge about Iceland’s geology. Iceland will lose a valuable member of their society when you leave. That is their problem, not yours. Hopefully Icelandic attitudes will change sooner rather than later.
      You and I also suffer from the same problem……..maths!!!! I see numbers that I must manipulate and I literally feel nauseous. However I have managed this fear of numbers in my own way and I have still managed to do good things in life. I can even talk about it and laugh at myself sometimes.. I think absolutely everyone has a real weakness of some kind. It is just that some are more willing to acknowledge their disabilities than others.

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