Category: Swarm

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Update on Grindavík for 30. November 2023

Information here might go outdated quickly and without warning. This article is written on 30. November 2023 at 23:44 UTC.

There isn’t much change happening at the moment. People are now allowed to be in Grindavík between 07:00 to 19:00 I think the time frame is. Earthquake activity is at minimum currently.

Daily update

  • Deepest hole that has been discovered so far is 25,7 meters deep. It is deeper, but at 25 meters the ground water level starts and hides the actual depth of this crack. Rúv news about this found here with pictures and videos in Icelandic.
  • New cracks and the ground continues to sink and move in most of areas of Grindavík. This is resulting in more damage to houses and streets in Grindavík town.
  • The harbour area in Grindavík has lowered 30 cm to 40 cm. That was the news two days ago. I think the harbour area continues to sink. This might be a signs of future problems if the ocean manages to flow into this area.
  • Svartsengi volcano continues to inflate at the rate from 10mm to 40mm a day. The last 24 hour inflation was around 40mm. Earlier the inflation had just been 10mm a day. Suggesting a increased flow of magma into Svartsengi volcano.

Something might start to happen around or after 9. December when the sill in Svartsengi is expected to reach the same pressure it was on 10. November when it broke the first time and emptied and created the dyke that formed under Grindavík and the nearby area.

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Update on Grindavík for 28. November 2023

This is a short update for Grindavík and nearby area on 28. November 2023. This article is written at 23:22 UTC. This is a short update and information here can go outdated quickly and without warning.

Last few days have been quiet with little or few earthquakes. There have been earthquake swarm activity at times, suggesting that magma is trying to push at faster rate into the crust at Sundhnúkagígar and Sundhnúkar mountain. I don’t know what the current rate of magma inflow is.

Daily information

  • Magma continues to flow into the dyke. I don’t know how fast that rate is.
  • The dyke is wider than originally thought. This means it cools down more slowly. The dyke is widest around Sundhnúkar and Sundhnúkargígar area.
  • Eruption can start without warning in Sundhnúkar or Sundhnúkargígar and that area.
  • New cracks continue to form in Grindavík, along with sink holes and other issues that is creating.
  • Inflation at Svartsengi is around 10mm/day and up to 40mm/day. Currently, the inflation has slowed down to 10mm/day. This can change without warning.
  • Top of Keilir mountain has moved according to the news. I don’t know how much. But this is a displacement.
  • Rocks with the size of mobile homes have moved and rolled down from mountains.
  • Cracks are forming in a wide area around the dyke according to the news. Making it dangerous to travel in the area around Grindavík because of this new cracks in the ground.

The event in Grindavík and nearby area is not over. It is ongoing, this is just a quiet time period that is currently happening. This quiet time period is going to happen frequently in the Reykjanes volcano system. I don’t know why that is the case, this is the reality of what is going on.

Article updated at 23:56. I forgot to add few things.

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Earthquake swarm west of Kleifarvatn lake

During the night of 25. November 2023 at 03:42 UTC an earthquake swarm took place just west of Kleifarvatn lake. Largest of this earthquake had a magnitude of Mw3,0. This earthquake swarm is a tension breaking earthquake swarm connected to the inflation in Svartsengi and the formation of the dyke under Grindavík. There’s going to be a lot of this type of earthquakes all over Reykjanes peninsula and on Reykjanes ridge in next few months.

Green star just west of Kleifarvatn lake. Few yellow dots nearby.
The earthquake activity west of Kleifarvatn lake and other nearby areas. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

There are no reports of this earthquake having been felt in Reykjavík.

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Man made earthquake swarm in Hengill volcano

Yesterday (24. November 2023) at 20:54 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,4 took place in Hengill volcano. This earthquake was felt in Hveragerði town.

Green star in Hengill volcano in a large fissure swarm in that area. Along with yellow and red dots.
The earthquake activity in Hengill volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

According to the news. This earthquake swarm is man made because of pumping down of hot water in this area by the hydrothermal power plant. This earthquake activity should stop soon as pumping down of the waste water stops.

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Update on Grindavík 24. November 2023

This is a short update on the situation in Grindavík and nearby area on 24. November 2023. This article is written at 18:47 UTC.
Information in this article can go outdated without warning and quickly if something happens.

This activity has slowed down for now. This means I am going to be posting update less here, unless something changes and that can happen without warning.

Daily update

  • There is movements on cracks and new holes and cracks are opening up or appearing as the ground collapses and exposes the fissure.
  • Earthquake activity has reached a low point. This might be just for a short period of time.
  • The inflation in Svartsengi is today around 140 to 160mm from 10. November 2023. The inflation each day is around 30 to 40mm.
  • The area that is inflating in Svartsengi is larger now compared to the area that inflated before 10. November 2023. This has created a uncertainty in the GPS data as I understand the situation. The rift valley is also creating issues in the GPS data as parts of him continue to sink and are going to continue to sink and lower nearby area with it. How much that is difficult to know.
  • The event that happened on 10. November 2023 was the quickest event to happen in recorded history of Icelandic Met Office. According to their report and the news.

It is my view that the current low is just going to last for few more days, at most few weeks because of the ongoing inflation in Svartsengi. It is my view that it is going to take around 30 days until next dyke activity happens, that is around 10. December when that might happen. But the situation is changing quickly and impossible to know for sure how it develops in next few days to weeks.

If anything happens. I’ll post update soon as I can do so.

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Update on Grindavík for Wednesday 22. November 2023

This is a short update. Information there might go outdated quickly and without warning. This article is written on Wednesday 22. November 2023 at 21:32 UTC.

There’s little news to report at this moment. Mostly because of bad weather. The progress of the dyke has also stalled from earlier, or this might be it for now. It is difficult be sure currently.

Risk map of Grindavík and the total of 15 km in both directions. The red zone, danger zone b has been withdrawn to north of Grindavík and now its just a small line north of the town and up north along the dyke. The most dangerous risk zone is north of the town.
The risk zone around Grindavík. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

The inflation at Svartsengi (upwards movement) stopped in the last 24 hours. This either means this series of events is stopping for now or something major is about to happen. I am not sure. Risk of this being a error are small, but this might be interference from weather (rain, snow).

The air code for Reykjanes volcano has been downgraded to yellow.

Aviation colour code for volcanoes in Iceland. All are green except Reykjanes volcano that is now yellow.
The aviation colour code of volcanoes in Iceland. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

The situation in Grindavík and in Sundhnúkagígar and the nearby area can still change without much warning. Since the ground is very fractured there and is not going to be much resistance to any magma movements in the near future.

If anything more happens. I’ll update soon as I can.

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Update for Grindavík on Monday, 20. November 2023

This is a short update on the situation in Grindavík. This article is written on 20. November 2023 at 22:22 UTC.

Storm warning

There’s a storm in Iceland until 23. November 2023. When the wind is going to start die down again. This means that Icelandic Met Office is going to record fewer earthquakes because strong ocean waves and wind.

Daily update

  • There has not been much change since yesterday. This is normal.
  • Inflation in Svartsengi is up to 30mm/day and this is a increase, since inflation used to be around 15mm/day.
  • Since Friday 10. November 2023 the inflation in Svartsengi has been around 150mm over the last 11 day time period.
  • It took 17 days from start on October 25 of the magma inflow into the Svartsengi dyke until it broke on 10. November and the created the Sundhnúkar to Grindavík dyke.
  • It is a question what happens when next 17 days come up. Because whatever the hold is for the magma in the dyke in Svartsengi is going to break it is going to start the process as happened on 10. November 2023 and possibly into the current dyke, or possibly create a new dyke next to the current one (its a possibility, not a large one, but it is there).

Other updates

There has not been a lot of information released today and I don’t see a lot on seismometers and other instruments around Grindavík town currently.

This is a image of the danger zone around Grindavík and north of it. Its divided into three zones. With the colours orange, red, purple.
The current danger zone map from Icelandic Met Office. Zone A (orange) is the least dangerous area. Zone B (Red) is a dangerous zone, risk of fissures opening up, erupting crates, lava flows and gas pollution. Zone C (purple) is the most dangerous zone, Its close to same as zone b, but increased risk of dangerous volcano gases and entering it requires wearing a gas mask, have a gas and have gas measurement tool when going into the zone. Red dotted line is the estimated location of the dyke. This map also shows fissures in this area and the rift valley. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This type of quiet period before an eruption are common. Why is not well understood. Eruption might not happen, but it is not likely that nothing is going to happen in this. Both is magma too close too the surface and there’s too much inflow of magma into the dyke at Svartsengi. This is how I see the current situation.

If anything happens. I’ll post update soon as I can.

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Update on Grindavík on 19. November 2023

This is a short update on the activity in Grindavík on 19. November 2023. Information here might go out of date without warning. This article is written at 22:28 UTC.

Krýsuvík earthquake

This morning an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,7 took place in Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano. This earthquake was felt in Reykjavík area. This earthquake happens because of all the displacement that is now happening next to Grindavík town.

Green star west of Kleifarvatn lake. The dyke appears as a red line with a lot of smaller earthquakes.
The earthquake activity in Krýsuvík-Trölladynga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Daily update

This is also an update for 18. November 2023. I was trying to get a little time off from writing.

  • Little has changed in last two days. Parts of Grindavík town continue to sink or rise depending on location. Most measured movements is around 25 cm last I did see. If that is correct today I am not sure.
  • Inflation in Svartsengi is around 130mm since Friday 10. November 2023 according to GPS measurements and satellite measurements.
  • Inflow of magma into Svartsengi is estimated to be around 50m3/sec when this article is written according to the news. Inflow of magma into the dyke was 75m3/sec or more few days ago. That has possibly changed to a lower number in last few days.
  • Earthquake activity remains about the same in the dyke. Around 800 to 2000 earthquakes a day along the 15 km long dyke.
Image that shows inflation in Svartsengi area on Reykjanes peninsula. This is a red area that has been lifting up 30mm/day. The image shows also colour blue and green. With blue showing area lowering and green and yellow area uplifting.
Inflation on the Reykjanes peninsula. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

It is impossible to know when this area is going to erupt. It can take up to three to four weeks to happen. It might be a shorter time period, it is impossible to know what happens when it comes to volcanoes and dyke activity.

If anything happens. I’ll post an update quickly as I can.

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Update on Grindavík 17. November 2023

This is a short update on the situation in Grindavík on 17. November 2023. Information here can go outdated quickly and without warning.

Daily updates

  • Grindavík town continues to sink as the rift valley continues to move. The speed of sinking has slowed a little according to the news today.
  • Earthquake activity has slowed down in last few hours (this is written around 22:51 UTC). What that means is unclear.
  • Some houses in Grindavík town have been completely destroyed. Iceland has a natural disaster fund for this type of situation and that is going to cover the owners loss according to the news.

General update

It took me a week. But it seems that this dyke intrusion under Grindavík town is because of the magma sill (dyke) under Svartsengi. That area has inflated around 110mm in a week. That is a inflation of 15mm/day based on my best calculations. That is a lot of inflation, since before 10. November the inflow of magma into Svartsengi was at most 8m3/sec according to measurements of Icelandic Met Office.

The sill in Svartsengi created a lateral dyke in Sundhnúkar and nearby areas. When the pressure in the sill is high enough again it is going to push the magma into the dyke at Sundhnúkar again with the same force as it did before. How long that takes I don’t know. Last time this was from 25. October to 10. November. That’s seventeen days, but there was a lot of deeper sills in Svartsengi and its impossible to know much, if anything flowed form them into the dyke. This is my personal view, it might be wrong. But this is what I am reading from the data.

Risk of the eruption remains high because there’s a ongoing inflation at Svartsengi. When a eruption starts is impossible to know.

If anything happens. I’ll post update soon as I can.

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Update on Grindavík on 16. November 2023

This is a short update on what is happening in Grindavík on 16. November 2023. Information here can go outdated quickly and without warning.

The situation is mostly the same as yesterday (15. November 2023), but few things have happened and that is enough for me to publish this article.

  • Sulfur dioxide has been detected in a drilling hole in Svartsengi. This drilling hole is such that it end point is close to Hagafell mountain  east to Svartsengi power plant. I think this might be a cold water hole. It has a depth of 2,5 km. This means that magma is at or close to that depth. Ground water in this area doesn’t go deeper than 1,9 to 3 km I think (I am not sure on how the fresh water ground level works in this area).
  • Eruption is expected from hours to day based on most recent measurements from Icelandic Met Office.
  • Grindavík town continues to sink according to news today (16. November 2023). Difference between days can be as much as 25 cm.
  • Mbl.is (Morgunblaðið) has a video of the damage done by this sinking on their website here. Its in Icelandic.

The situation for now is quiet, but that might only last for few hours to days longer before an eruption starts. Since earthquake activity strongly suggests that magma is looking for a way to the surface. While some magma is at shallow depth of 400 to 500 meters. There’s not enough of it to start an eruption. That can change without any warning at any time in this situation.

I’ll write updates if anything more happens here as quickly as I can.