Weekly earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano (12-June-2017)

Today (12-June-2017) a magnitude 3,6 earthquake took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This earthquake activity is mostly normal for Bárðarbunga volcano, there has been slight increase in earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano during the past few days (minor earthquakes), why that increase is taking place is unclear at the moment. This increased happened at the same time as a sharp increase in earthquake activity took place in Tungnafellsjökull volcano (read the article about that for more information).


The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano and Tungnafellsjökull volcano. The green star shows the magnitude 3,6 earthquake. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Currently the activity in Bárðarbunga volcano is mostly what is now considered ‘normal’ after the 2014 – 2015 eruption. I don’t know if that status is about to change, but there are clues in current activity suggesting that might be about to happen. This increased activity however might slow down again and go back to normal background levels.

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Deep earthquake activity in Trölladyngja (volcano)

Today (08-June-2017) there have been deep earthquakes in Trölladyngja (volcano). This earthquake swarm was shallower than last earthquake swarm that took place in Trölladyngja. Several months ago the earthquakes in Trölladyngja where happening at 28 km depth, but now they are at the depth range of 18,6 – 23,3 km, this means that the magma under Trölladyngja is migrating upwards at fast phase, a lot faster then I thought was possible. Earthquake swarm in November-2015 where slight off to the side, those earthquakes had the depth of 15 – 18 km as I wrote about here. Since November-2015 here has been other activity in Trölladyngja, but that has been in the form of one or two earthquakes so I have not written about it (I never bother with just one or two earthquakes at location due to the amount that happens daily in Iceland).


Earthquake activity in Trölladyngja (volcano), north-east of Bárðarbunga volcano fissure swarm. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Last eruption in Trölladyngja was according to GVP (under Bárðarbunga volcano history) was 7000 years ago. Since then nothing has happened. There has been a lot more eruption in Dyngjuháls area and that area is also having deep earthquakes. That area is also covered with ~200 meters of glacier. It remains to be seen what happens next in the Bárðarbunga volcano saga.

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Earthquake swarm in Kolbeinsey island

Yesterday (24-May-2017) and today (during the night of 25-May-2017) there was an earthquake swarm in Kolbeinsey island. Largest earthquakes had the magnitude of 3,6 (x2) and one magnitude 3,5 earthquake took place. Other earthquakes where smaller in magnitude. No harmonic tremor where detected during this activity, that does not rule out that this activity is due to dyke intrusion taking place in Kolbeinsey island. It just didn’t reach the surface this time. Kolbeinsey island is far away from the SIL network, with the closest station being in Grímsey island (~25 km) with other SIL station at ~60 km distance. If an eruption starts in Kolbeinsey Island, a harmonic tremor signal is going to appear in Grímsey island SIL station.


Green star mark the area where the earthquake swarm took place in Kolbeinsey island. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Last eruption in this area took place in the year 1755, but that eruption might not actually have been in Kolbeinsey Island, but in a other unnamed volcano north of it (where is not known). Last confirmed eruption in Kolbeinsey island took place in the year 1372, it was closer to land somewhere north-west of Grímsey island (suggesting that fissure swarm of Kolbeinsey island comes close to Grímsey island).

At the moment the activity has quieted down and no earthquakes are being detected by the SIL network.

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Possible dyke intrusion in Þórðarhyrna volcano

Tonight (05.03.2017) an possible dyke intrusion has taken place in Þórðarhyrna volcano. It’s a small volcano south-west of Grímsfjall volcano and on Global Volcanism Program website it is counted with Grímsfjall volcano eruptions. Last eruption in Þórðarhyrna took place in 1902 at the same time there was an eruption in Grímsfjall volcano (size VEI=4). Before that eruption, the earlier eruption in Þórðarhyrna took place in the year (August 15th) 1887 and lasted for two years (ended in 1889).


Possible dyke intrusion in Þórðarhyrna volcano (south-west of Grímsfjall volcano). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Largest earthquake in this swarm had the magnitude of 2,5 and the second largest earthquake in this swarm had the magnitude of 2,4. Other earthquakes where smaller. It is not possible to know how this is going to evolve since there is a lack of data on Þórðarhyrna volcano due the fact no eruption has happened since the year 1902. That means for now, it is just more wait and see what happens next.

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RSS feed

If people want to keep up with articles in real time (in case of an eruption), it is possible to do so with an RSS feed that WordPress supports. Both for new articles and new comments as they appear. Its an alternative with the email list I currently support.

Continued and strong earthquake activity north of Kolbeinsey Island

For the past few weeks something has been going on in the deep ocean far north of Kolbeinsey Island. The area north of Kolbeinsey Island has been having strong earthquake swarms for several weeks now, what is creating them is less clear.


The earthquake activity north of Kolbeinsey Island (blue dots). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

All magnitudes are under-estimated at this location. I managed to record the last earthquake swarm (largest earthquakes) and it was clear by this activity that something was going on. Five earthquakes that where at least magnitude 3,2 (estimate) took place in the space of 4 – 8 minutes. This where only the earthquakes that I was able to record, distance from my geophone to this area is ~230 km at shortest distance. Making it difficult for me to record earthquakes on my simple geophone. Icelandic Met Office SIL network is not having much better luck recording earthquakes at this location, due to distance the SIL network underestimates the magnitude and location of the earthquakes has higher than normal error margins (up to several dozen of km at most).

There is a possibility that an eruption is taking place at this location now. There was a possible eruption or dyke injection at this location in October of the year 1999, the Global Volcanism Program report on that activity can be found here.

Deep earthquakes in Bárðarbunga volcano

Over the past few hours a sequence of deep earthquakes has been taking place in Bárðarbunga volcano. The depth of those earthquakes is from 19 km and up to 11 km, how they spread out suggesting a dyke intrusion in Bárðarbunga volcano fissure swarm or on the edge of the volcano.

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The deep earthquakes taking place almost south of the main caldera in Bárðarbunga volcano (few blue/yellow dots). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Deep earthquake activity suggests that fresh magma is pushing into the volcano at more pressure than in past few days. The clues about this happening have been the stronger earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano over the past few weeks. New dykes can also form without warning and start an eruption if the pressure is enough in them, such eruption might not last long, not even a whole day in some cases.

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Increased activity in Öræfajökull volcano noticed

It has been noticed that earthquake activity in Öræfajökull volcano is slowly increasing. At the moment this increase is just in the form of minor earthquakes taking place in the volcano at 5 – 10 km depth (at the moment). This was covered in a Icelandic news two days ago (when this is written), the volcanologist in the news (Páll Einarsson) says this is nothing to worry about at the moment, that I agree with, mostly, he also put forward that idea this process, if it evolves into an eruption might take up to 18 years from start to finish, as was the case with Eyjafjallajökull volcano. This is where I disagree with the professor Páll Einarsson, the reason being that this process already started good 10 years ago, I also suspect that Öræfajökull volcano to be a volcano that erupts suddenly and with a lot of force once it does erupt.

The eruption in the year 1362 had the VEI of 5 and the eruption in 1727 had the explosive force of VEI=4. Both eruptions lasted several months. Öræfajökull volcano only makes ash rich, explosive eruptions, based on latest historical data and studies into the volcano history. The processes that power Öræfajökull volcano might also be different, since there is an slab of old continental crust (study: Continental crust beneath southeast Iceland) under Öræfajökull volcano, that is slowly melting due the nearby hotspot. This means the magma is mostly silica, not far from the magma found in volcanoes found at subduction zones around the world.

There is also a second volcano this same area that has been showing sign of increased activity. That volcano is called Esjufjöll, it has even less understood activity (if any) since people moved to Iceland ~1300 years ago. There is a chance of an unconfirmed eruption in the year 1927, but it didn’t last long, maybe up to five days, it was mostly noted due a glacier flood from the area this volcano is located (small according to historical documents).

What is going on in Bárðarbunga volcano – basic analyse

This the first analyse article that I’m going to write. It is going to a short one and not written over few days, as is the plan to have them in the future. The reason for this is that this information might get outdated quickly as things change in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is going to be broken down into few parts for clarity (if possible).

Current activity in Bárðarbunga volcano

Bárðarbunga volcano is preparing for a new eruption and has been doing so since March-2015, few days after the eruption ended in Holuhraun. Where this eruption is going to take place is impossible to know fore sure, but there are clues to what might happen (it doesn’t mean it is going to). Current earthquake activity pattern suggests that the next eruption is going to take place directly south of Bárðarbunga volcano, slightly south of the Holuhraun dyke formation. At that location there is a dyke formation that has been building up for the last few years and in recent months I’ve noticed a slight increase in activity around that dyke, it has been making branches from it self, creating small earthquakes swarms in the process. I don’t know how large this dyke is, but what is clear from earthquake data is that it is deep, goes down to at least 25 km depth, maybe deeper.

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The cluster of orange dots is the dyke showing it self earlier today. Copyright of this image belongs to Iceland Met Office.

Since the activity started in Bárðarbunga volcano, this dyke has changed and appears to have started growing at some point (I don’t know when). Current size suggest that it is already large and contains large amount of magma. Amount is hard to estimate, but pure guess (short of educated) suggests that the amount of magma in this one dyke is already high and more might be at depth (25+ km depth). This one dyke has existed, or formed around 2005 – 2008 at earliest, it might have formed a good while ago, but this are the years I first saw it in the earthquake data. It is all over thick glacier (200 meters or more), so any eruption at that location would result in a glacier flood.

Eruptions risk at the moment

Currently Bárðarbunga volcano is in what I call “Active phase – not erupting”, meaning the volcano is not dormant (no activity at all). The risk of an eruption at the moment is in my view around moderate, nothing suggest that it is at high levels. That however is changing with each passing day and it is my view that one day there is going to be a earthquake swarm and activity that is going to start a new eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano and there is a good chance that eruption is going to take place under the glacier.

The caldera cauldrons (on the rim)

When the earthquake activity, connected with the dyke intrusion started in August-2014 and few eruptions under the glacier, few cauldrons formed in the glacier. Over the past few months those cauldrons have been getting larger and deeper, the glacier they are melting is up to 200 meters thick in this area (far as I know). The reason for this cauldron formation is the collapse (called slow collapse) of the Bárðarbunga volcano in 2014 – 2015 eruption. This suggests that magma has found a pathway to the shallow crust (5> km), but does not have the energy to start an eruption at the moment. This magma might never erupt at all, it might only create new hydrothermal areas in Bárðarbunga volcano. Paper on the collapse of Bárðarbunga volcano caldera can be found here, I don’t know how accurate or if this has been peer-reviewed article.

Earthquake depths

When something happens in Bárðarbunga volcano, like a strong earthquake swarm with magnitude 3,0 or larger earthquake taking place it sometimes has a activity taking place several hours before it. Here is how to spot it if it happens, it does not always take place for random reasons.

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Small earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano, but notice the depth of 26,8 km. Screen-shot from Iceland Met Office website.

Depth is an important factor here, this earthquake took place at 26,8 km depth, suggesting that magma created it. That is not always the case, but it appears that this time it was. Since 12 hours later a magnitude 3,4 earthquake took place, meaning the pressure inside Bárðarbunga volcano changed (as I understand how this works).

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The dyke earthquake swarm. All magnitudes are small, but depth is the interesting part. Screen-shot from Iceland Met Office website.

The dyke earthquake swarm has different pattern. As the magma pushes up the dyke from deep it creates earthquakes along the weak points in its structure, making the depth appear at random as earthquakes are formed. This also expands the dyke a little, low amount of earthquakes indicates that there is not much of a resistance in the dyke where it is expanding at the moment.

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Magnitude 4,4 earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano

Today (20-May-2016) a magnitude 4,4 earthquake took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is the strongest earthquake so far since the end of the eruption in February-2015. This earthquake swarm also had two magnitude 3,3 earthquakes. Other earthquakes where smaller in magnitude.

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The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Iceland Met Office.

Official statement from Iceland Met Office is that they are not sure what is going on. What is clear is that seismic energy being released from Bárðarbunga volcano has increased a lot since end of the eruption in February-2015 and current GPS data suggest rapid inflation. Both of are unusual after caldera collapse like Bárðarbunga volcano experienced in the 2014 – 2015 eruption. Due to lack of historical data it is hard to know for sure what is going on, whatever it is, it’s the first ever that is being monitored in great details.

Current events have not lead to an eruption so far. They however might do so in the future, when is difficult to know since the time frame of this development is unknown, it might be hours, it might be decades. Satellite images also show that cauldrons that have formed at the edge of the caldera are getting deeper and possibly larger, suggesting an increased hydrothermal energy at the locations where they have formed. This suggest that more magma is collecting at depth in the caldera, something as sad above is highly unusual due the recent caldera collapse in the last eruption. I’m expecting more earthquake swarms like this and growing magnitude of the earthquakes that take place. The weekly pattern is going to continue and I suspect it might increase soon, when is impossible to know for sure.

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Magnitude 4,2 earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano

Shortly after midnight of 8-April-2016 a magnitude 4,2 earthquake took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This earthquake activity was shallow, most depth was around 3 to 5 km. Few earthquakes took place at 7 to 11 km depth, suggesting a magma movement at depth. Nothing suggest that magma reached shallow depth this time around.

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The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Iceland Met Office.

The second largest earthquake in this activity had the magnitude of 3,5 at the depth of 4,3 km. Other earthquakes in this swarm where smaller in magnitude at different depths. Magma did not reach the surface in this earthquake swarm, this appears to have been a movement of fault lines do to stress changes at depth due to magma inflow. I’m expecting continued earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano in coming weeks and months.

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