This is a super short update. Since there’s too much happening at the writing of this article for me to write anything useful about current situation.
There’s a super dense earthquake swarm happening north-west of Grindavík town. There’s also an earthquake swarm north-east of Grindavík town.
Almannavarnir have declared danger level for Reykjanes volcano and Grindavík town.
There’s a lot of earthquakes with strong magnitudes. Useful list is not possible at the writing of this article.
Dense earthquake activity at distance of 187 km.
This is what I am recording at the distance of 187 km from the source at Reykjanes peninsula. This is the most dense earthquake activity I’ve ever seen.
Today (31. October 2023) at around 08:00 UTC an magma movement was detected by Icelandic Met Office. This started an earthquake swarm that had a largest earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,7. The magma seems to be at depth of 1,5 km where it is the shallowest. Few days ago, that magma was at depth of 5 to 8 km. This change is rather quick movement of magma, that suggests higher pressure compared the magma that erupted in Fagradalsfjall volcano. This might result in a larger eruption when it happens. The inflation at Fagradalsfjall volcano, south part of it has not lowered. The only thing that has happened there is that earthquake activity has dropped to almost nothing. Earthquake activity has moved to western part of Fagradalsfjall volcano. Eruption also happening in Fagradalsfjall volcano should not be ruled out, but the events close to Þorbjörn mountain might delay the progress of that magma.
Earthquake activity because of magma movements in Reykjanes volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
It is difficult to know what is going to happen next. But an eruption is highly likely, when and where is almost impossible to know even if GPS data gives good clues on where it might happen. This situation is complex and it is uncertain what is going to happen next with this activity in Reykjanes volcano and Fagradalsfjall volcano.
I’ll post information soon as I know something. A list of web cameras of Icelandic volcanoes can be found on the YouTube page that I set up a while ago.
The Reykjanes volcano has been placed on yellow warning level. This is because of sudden inflation that is now taking place north-west of Þorbjörn mountain. In slightly less than 24 hours the inflation did reach 30mm. This is the fifth time (as reported by Morgunblaðið) that inflation has happened in this area since the year 2020. This inflation now is a lot faster than earlier when this has happened.
The alert status for Reykjanes volcano is now yellow. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
This inflation in the Reykjanes volcano has the risk of creating stronger earthquakes in new locations on the Reykjanes peninsula and on the Reykjanes ridge in next few days to weeks. There is a ongoing inflation in Fagradalsfjall volcano and that has not stopped or slowed down since it started on 25. October 2023. It is not possible to know when or if an eruption in going to start in Reykjanes volcano, but how quickly this inflation is happening suggests that might happen. The location is not that good, if it erupts where the inflation is happening. The blue lagoon is nearby along with power plant and hot water energy plant in this area. Eruption in this location can result in major damage to infrastructure in this area.
Only thing that can be done now is to wait and monitor what is happening in this area.
Current activity is also complicated and might not behave in the same way as earlier eruptions did. Largest earthquakes at writing of this article have had magnitude of Mw3,5 and Mw4,5. Larger earthquakes can be expected without warning. There have been around 1000 smaller earthquakes at the writing of this article.
Earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano and Þorbjörn mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
There is a good chance this events are not going to behave the same way as happened in earlier eruptions, because the location is little bit difference and that can result in a lot of change on what happens when magma pushes it self up through the crust. The earthquake activity close to Þorbjörn might be a mixed earthquake activity of tension breaking earthquakes and magma pushing it self up. GPS data doesn’t show any inflation close to Þorbjörn mountain at the writing of this article.
Earthquake activity is increasing in south part of Fagradalsfjall volcano, this is area in Nátthagi, Nátthagakriki and other nearby area. There is a dyke intrusion in that area and has been a while. That dyke intrusion might be about to erupt. There is a lot of uncertainty going on at the writing of this article. There is also a pattern of high and low in the earthquake activity, this has been the pattern in the earthquake activity before the earlier eruptions.
I’ll write updates about this activity as needed. It might take a while, since I always try to figure out what is going on before an article is written.
Icelandic Met Office reported today (14. October 2023) that an new eruption in Fagradalsfjall volcano or nearby is now expected to happen before or close to Christmas. After the end of the eruption on 6th August 2023 the inflation that has been happening is now faster then before earlier eruptions. At the writing of this article, an earthquake with magnitude of Mw2,7 took place north of Grindavík town and was felt in Grindavík.
Earthquake activity north of Grindavík town and in Fagradalsfjall volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
In the last two eruptions, after the first eruption ended. There have been around ten months between eruption. That does not seem to be the case now. Since it seems that next eruption is going to happen at four to six months time. A half or close to it from when the last eruption took place. This situation is dangerous, because this means that an eruption can start without much warning and not a lot of earthquake activity. Icelandic Met Office advice is that people travel around and in Fagradalsfjall volcano carefully.
Today (5. October 2023) two earthquakes took place that are connected to Fagradalsfjall volcano inflation. The first one was a magnitude Mw3,3 in Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano. This was a tectonic earthquake because of inflation in Fagradalsfjall volcano. The second earthquake was north of Grindavík town and had a magnitude of Mw3,2. That earthquake was part of an earthquake swarm and dyke intrusion in that area. That area north of Grindavík town has been seeing a lot of earthquake activity in recent weeks, all connected to dyke intrusion activity.
Two green stars on Reykjanes peninsula. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
The increase in activity in recent weeks strongly suggests that an eruption is going to happen soon. When is impossible to know and earthquake activity is too low at the writing of this article for an eruption to be happening today. This might change without warning, as has happened in the last two eruptions. There is a possibility that something has changed after the last eruption, but the answer to that question won’t happen until next eruption. All that can be done now is to wait and see what happens.
Today (18. September 2023) there was an earthquake swarm north of Grindavík town. Largest earthquake had a magnitude of Mw2,7 and was felt in Grindavík town according to Icelandic Met Office. This earthquake activity has the direction of SW to NE and is under the road to Grindavík town.
Earthquake swarm activity north of Grindavík town. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
This is clearly a dyke intrusion taking place at this location. This location is bad, because this area has infrastructure that is important to Grindavík town. In this area both hot and cold water is transported along with electricity wires (I think, they might have a different path, but it is at most nearby). Eruption at this location would be a major hazard and a problem. Currently there are no signs that this magma is looking for a path to the surface.
Yesterday (15. September 2023) an earthquake swarm took place on Fagradalsfjall volcano. This earthquake swarm wasn’t in the news because it was only small earthquakes, that is earthquakes with magnitude less of Mw1,0. It was not even felt by the people standing on the volcano because of depth. If this earthquake swarm has stopped I don’t know. Since most of this earthquakes don’t show up in the automatic earthquake list at Icelandic Met Office website. They only appear after a manual review by Icelandic Met Office.
High earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
In my view, this means that next eruption might happen between November to February 2024 if this earthquake activity and dyke intrusion activity continues as it is currently doing. It has happened before earlier eruptions that a high period of activity is followed by a period of quiet until an eruption happens. Why that is I don’t know, that is a pattern I’ve observed. I don’t know if there has been change after last eruption in Fagradalsjall volcano. That is a possibility that should not be ruled out.
Rúv News is reporting today (10. September 2023) that there has been noticeable increase in hydrothermal activity east of Keilir mountain since end of least eruption close to Litli-Hrútur mountain. According to the news, this shows that magma is now close to the surface without erupting currently. This area is rather large, it is between Keilir mountain and Trölladyngja mountain (part of Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano). There have been reports of increased SO2 vents that is killing moss in this area, along with new steam vents that have been appearing in the last few weeks.
According to Þorvaldur Þórðarson volcanologist, there is a magma shadow in the area around Trölladyngja and that appeared around the time the eruption close to Litli-Hrútur started. This area was noticed by Thomas Fisher earthquake expert from Czech Republic did notice this area having almost no earthquakes at all. Showing that magma has pushed it self into the crust at this location at shallow depth.
The result of this is that next eruption might have more eruption vents, it might erupt at more than one fissure at the same time in parallel. What happens next is unclear, but this large area has gotten really warm and seems to be continuing to expand.
Today (7. September 2023) an tyke intrusion took place in Fagradalsfjall volcano. The main depth of the dyke intrusion is at around 7 km depth. All earthquakes following this dyke intrusion where small in magnitude, from Mw0,1 in magnitude and up to Mw1,0 in magnitude. This seems to be a rather large dyke intrusion, since part of it does not create any earthquake activity at all because of earlier dyke intrusions at this depth in this part of Fagradalsfjall mountain.
Earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
Morgunblaðið (link below) is reporting that inflation has now reached 15mm in this area. This is really soon after the end of the eruption, since in last three eruptions, dyke intrusions and other early signs of activity that an eruption is about to happen starts around three to six months earlier before an eruption happens at the ten month time, as has been the case in the last three eruptions. It is possible that next eruption is going to happen earlier than last three eruptions. It is possible to know when next eruption is going to happen.
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