Posted on by Jón Frímann

Katla volcano update at 20:10 UTC

Here goes Katla volcano again.

Earthquake activity in Katla volcano has been slowly increasing today (06-October-2016). It is not yet at the levels as it was week ago, but as Katla showed last week this change can happen rapidly and without much warning. Largest earthquake since this morning had the magnitude of 2,4 at 14:11 UTC. Other earthquakes so far have been smaller in magnitude. Other earthquakes have been smaller in magnitude.

161006_1855
The earthquake activity in Katla volcano at 18:55 UTC. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

The fact that current earthquake swarm is in a really tight location suggests that a dyke intrusion is possibly trying to drill its way out up through the crust at this location. I did see something similar before Bárðarbunga volcano erupted. It is not possible to know how long this process takes, since the crust is different between volcanoes. Then there is always the question if this process stops, at this moment I find that doubtful due how long its been going already. I’m expecting the earthquake activity in Katla volcano to increase until a new peak is reached or an eruption starts. Currently no eruption has started.

This article is going to be updated as needed.

Off-line warning

Due to hurricane Matthews there is a risk of this website going off-line from tomorrow as the hurricane hits Florida and Orlando, where this website is hosted. I will take a backup of it later today just in case. At worst some comments might be lost and even some articles (if I update the website after I take my backup).

158 Replies to “Katla volcano update at 20:10 UTC”

  2. I have friends on holiday in Florida at the moment but they are inland so hopefully things shouldn’t be too bad (verses the east coast).
    Did notice the M3 the depth 100 meters.

  3. Jon you do such an amazing job with this site. It seems this could be a major moment in the volcanic history of modern Europe. Give us a call. I am just an amateur but I am thinking this swarm is the one that’s going to lead to the big daddy eruption. Do you think its going to blow in the next 10 days, this month, whats your best guess (and all of us realize it’s just a guess).

  4. It will be at best a rash like that of 2010 nothing more. We do not exaggerate. No fantasy.

    2. It could be a minor hiccup or it could be a big VEI 5. Trying to predict exactly what it will do is stupid. Looking at what we know about Katla, the best bet or some kind of average would be about a mid VEI 4, which is still somewhat larger than Eyjafjallajokull. Obviously we can’t possibly say how big it will be until it begins.

  5. Lets hope that Jon gives us his gut call. I am an agricultural scientist and follow long cycles in weather (el nino) related to solar variability. I think certain volcano’s are impacted by long solar cycles when the solar wind collapses. Katla has exploded big in 1625 (V-5) 1721 (V-4), 1821 (V-3) and 1918 (V4+). i think there is a periodicity in the eruptions that’s related to long cycles in solar variability (~95 year de Vries cycle) that’s why I think it COULD be big. An eruption in 2016 would be 98 years… right on schedule.

      1. Sander this is the best read to begin to understand the complexity of it. The main points to understand are that prolonged solar minimums cause increased cosmic rays to reach deep into the earth and they are an important energy source. The prolonged solar minimum is caused by a solar angular momentum perturbation when the big planets are opposing each other and it happens in a major way every 95 years (de Vries cycle). Katla explodes big on the 95 year solar minimum events when cosmic rays peak in their deep penetration of the earth.
        https://watchers.news/2015/06/09/cosmic-solar-radiation-as-the-cause-of-earthquakes-and-volcanic-eruptions/

      3. roger samson,

        Sorry, but this is not science. This is nonsense (I’m up because I’m saving data from my dead hard drive). The sun is 8 light minutes from the Earth (that is 1.799e+7 km). The solar sunspot cycle is 11 years, not 95 years. The sun may have longer deeper cycles of up to 300 – 500 years, but that has not yet been proven (properly yet). The big planets being opposite of the sun relative to the Earth happens once a year for several weeks at the time. Its different month or week each year, but you can look it up without a problem.

        The paper on the de Vries solar cycle says this here, in the abstract.

        “[…]

        The quasi-200-year variations revealed in the palaeoclimatic reconstructions correlate well (R2 = 0.58–0.94) with solar activity variations (Δ14C variations). The quasi-200-year climatic variations have also been detected in climate-linked processes in Asia, Europe, North and South America, Australia, and the Arctic and Antarctica. The results obtained point to a pronounced influence of solar activity on global climatic processes.

        Analysis has shown that climate response to the long-term global solar forcing has a regional character. An appreciable delay in the climate response to the solar signal can occur (up to 150 years). In addition, the sign of the climate response can differ from the solar signal sign. The climate response to long-term solar activity variations (from 10s to 1000s years) manifests itself in different climatic parameters, such as temperature, precipitation and atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The climate response to the de Vries cycle has been found to occur not only during the last millennia but also in earlier epochs, up to hundreds of millions years ago. […]”

        This has nothing to do with volcanism.

        Katla volcano normally erupts on the time scale of 13 – 100 years, with the average quiet period being around 75 years. The quiet cycle now is extremely long, among the longest in recorded history (far as we know).

        Science paper (de Vries solar cycle), http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018207005214

      4. My background is in physics, and I don’t believe what roger is saying here makes much (any) sense.

        my 2 cents.

      6. cosmic rays do not touch the earth. They are led around it by powerful magnetic field called the Van Allen Belt. Only in polar areas particles get trapped, forming aurora’s. But these are just residual particles that have lost much of their energy already. Anyway, all of these do not have by any means the force to move even 1 milligram of magma. ( there is no connection )

  6. Bad news. My 2TB hard drive just gave up and died. Currently its in zombie mode while I clean it out and move the files to different hard drives that I have. I managed to get it into zombie mode my change it from horizontal to vertical angle (making gravity act differently on the hard drive parts in it).

    What failed. The read head motor has been clicking for a long time now and tonight it just gave up on its job and died to my great annoyance.

    1. Jon sorry to hear of your difficulties. The HGST drives are reported to be the most reliable. My experience has that as well. They cost a little more but are worth it in the long run.

      1. This was a WD hard drive. I had it in use since 2011 or 2012. What failed was the read head, it started to make a click sound. What failed exactly is unclear, might be the control board or the read head. I know it was my 2TB as that is why my Gentoo Linux error log told me.

    2. Gag had that happen with my western digital 2t, since you don’t believe in prayer I will just cross my fingers that you can recover it!

      Looked like a 3.8 on Bardy just before my power supply gave up.

    3. Sent you a p.m. for a feeebie that if you want it will help protect your data going forward.

    4. Jack McIlveen, I did manage to recover all the data from the hard drive (2TB). Its now spread between three drives on two computers. It was just pure random luck that I managed to get the drive spinning again, in the end of the recovery it had started to make click sound again, suggesting that a new failure was on the way. I don’t think that I would have been or I’m going to be able to recover the drive from that final failure once it happens (the hard drive is now off-line). Now I just have to hope that my remaining 1TB hard drive doesn’t fail. As it is also old an heavily used.

      1. Install Hard Disk Sentinel, and you’ll never get blindsided by a failing drive ever again.

  9. We would be flying from Europe to Japan next week (Friday evening, the 14th). Is it likely that we will be facing a situation like in 2010, with our flight being cancelled and no rescheduled flights for over a week? Is there any insight as to the impact an eruption might have on air traffic?

    1. To 99.9999% you can fly. 🙂 In 2010 some unusual things came together (wind, jetstream, etc.). I wish you a good flight. 🙂

      1. That’s right. And Jon has it’s computer out of Zombie mode again so all skies are clear for takeoff.

    2. Even if there is an ash cloud over Europe, the flight restrictions are not as strict as in 2010. Anyway the current position of the jet stream is very favourable for aviation.

  10. Is it evil to be excited about natural disasters? There is something about the awesomeness of nature…volcanoes, hurricanes. Of course no one wants death, suffering, and economic loss, but I can’t wait for Katla to erupt! Witnessing and beginning to understand such powerful processes. What an exciting time to live! Be safe, those in Florida.

    1. My speciality is ethics, and trust me- this is actually a very good question! Also kind of fun, so I’m trying to answer shortly based mainly on virtue ethics.

      Basically, one can’t help feeling emotions (such as excitement), and since ethics is always grounded in choices that are made among possible options, feelings are outside the scope of ethics.
      What counts is what we do with our feelings. Knowledge and understanding natural phenomena is a valuable good in itself. People tend to care for things they understand and disregard things that they judge uninteresting. As laypeople living far from areas that would be affected by the eruption, we can’t use our increasing knowledge about volcanology directly in doing good things such as attempting to predict eruptions or limit damage they cause to people, nature and economy. However, our better understanding of these phenomena
      may lead us to appreciate nature, frailty of all living things and the finer aspects of modern science more. If we are so inclined, we may be able to use this improved understanding in our daily lives in many positive ways. We may defend science by voting for politics that support science and education. We may become more inspired to protect nature and respect it more.
      In other words, even though natural disasters are kind of terrible, if we find ourselves fascinated about such things, we can choose to transform this fascination and improved understanding resulting from it into all sorts of personal growth and good deeds that, with a little luck, make the world a bit better place.

      On the other hand, since it’s not the feelings in themselves but how we choose to handle them that counts, if we choose to view destruction, death and suffering as reality-tv type entertainment, we are definitely not using our excitement constructively but enhance low aspects of our personalities instead- definitely not good!

  11. Thanks Mike – fingers crossed that you’re right! 99% are decent odds I guess, so we’ll try to keep our anxiety at bay ;). Thanks!

  12. So many closed minds here. I guess there just is a clock in each volcano that the good Lord put in each volcano and only god knows when the volcano’s will blow…. geesh
    I didn’t write that paper about cosmic rays I just read it and many others and to me it provided a very elegant explanation of why there is a strong correlation with volcano explosions and the long solar minimum. As I said I am an agricultural scientist and the commodity traders have recognized the impact of sunspots on grain prices for over 200 years. If the moon has tidal influences on the earth don’t you think the large planets can have tidal and torque influences on the sun? If you take an infra-red sauna that warms you up nice…. don’t you think lava could be affected by deep penetrating cosmic rays. Maybe its just all a little too overwhelming …. it’s so much simpler to think only God knows when that Katla volacno will explode so I guess we will just all wait for him to make up his mind.

    Jon the various cycles are built around different conjunctions of planets, there is a ~11 year solar, then there are others Gleissberg (70-100) and De vries (200) and they overlap. Note half the Devries is ~ 100. If you want a bit more background check out this blog https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/04/17/why-phi-jupiter-saturn-and-the-de-vries-cycle/

    1. Y0u referred to “God” two times in this post, making you and your scientific beliefs quite questionable in my opinion.

      I’m finding it hard to believe that Allah, God, Vishnu etc. have got ANYTHING to do with Katla…

      Your theory has been claimed by many people on this blog since 2010. It’s getting tiresome.

    3. No. Other planets don’t have anything to do with Earth volcanoes. The sun powers the weather, the ocean on Earth via heat transfer (sunlight) and that’s about it. Tidal forces are in reality really small, since the ocean only goes up few centimetres (landscape can have more effects on the tidal forces then the moon or the sun).

      Jupiter and Saturn are really far away and can’t increase the Earth core temperature (that powers volcanism on Earth). If Earth was close enough to Jupiter for it to have an effect there won’t be any life on Earth.

      Katla volcano is also not going to explode, it is going to erupt.

    5. > So many closed minds here.

      Our will-saves against insanity-attacks are strong.
      — Why don’t you try somewhere else?

  13. Well Roger, I feel offended about your remark that there are a lot of closed minds here. Me not believing your pseudo-science doesn’t mean at all that I believe God decides when Katla will explode. That for a starter. Because I don’t believe your pseudo-science doesn’t mean I have a closed mind. Maybe you have, because we don’t want to follow your theory and you immediately call us close minded. The funny thing is that every year around this time, somebody starts this discussion. I recall somebody saying last October that he believed Katla was going to erupt because of the sun. He also promised to eat his shoe or something. (Was it you?) I guess that saying this every year you are going to be right one time, because she is going to erupt again….

    3. Well said Jenneke and Mike please be a bit more careful with your colourful language I have grandchildren who check this page who really don’t need to learn those type of words while learning about volcanoes!

    4. Folks I am just looking for a little discussion to learn more, maybe this is the wrong list. I think everyone here should recognize that there is a lot we don’t understand. If we want genuine discussion the moderator should not be bashing contributors but rather facilitating the discussion. These are not my ideas I presented just the writings of others and I see they aren’t necessarily welcome by all. I am sorry that I suggested that cosmic rays might increase during the solar minimum and that they might impart energetic impacts on magma and that they might even hit the earth once in a while.

      1. The only thing that cosmic rays seems to due when they hit Earth atmosphere (and this is not always the case) is to start a lightning. I’m not sure how that works in the full details, but physicists are working on that problem. Cosmic rays increase during a solar minimum, that is well established fact and can be measured on Earth.

        Details, http://news.spaceweather.com/cosmic-rays-are-intensifying/

        Cosmic rays do not have any effects on volcanoes.

        Details.

        https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/experts-do-cosmic-rays-cause-lightning/#
        http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2015/apr/29/cosmic-rays-illuminate-the-electric-fields-that-cause-lightning

  14. It looks like it’s more than volcanos that are erupting here. C’mon guys, don’t be silly!

  15. Please don’t flame or start flame wars. It is good to keep in mind that volcano activity like any other force of nature seems to bring out the crazy people. Nothing can be done about this (sadly).

  16. My hard drive problems don’t seem to end at the moment. I suspect that the hard drive in my FreeBSD server is also clicking. I need to check to see if that is actually the case (the clicking I heard might just be part of normal operation noise, not a sign of failure).

    Since the hard drive in my FreeBSD are smaller (I run minimal systems, no gui on it), replacing that drive is going to be a lot cheaper (around 68€).

    This also might be my remaining 1TB hard drive in my Desktop computer, since that hard drive is also old (2012) and has a lot of hours on it.

    Comment updated.

    1. Ooh, 2012, not a good year for hard drives what with the planetary alignment and the sun’s solar peak …………

      (I know, but I couldn’t resist) sorry 😉

    2. Turns out this is my 1TB hard drive. I switched to my Windows 10 install (that I use for games while I wait for volcanoes to erupt in Iceland) as I turn all other hard drive off while I’m in Windows (since Windows 10 and Linux don’t mix).

      I’ll order a new 1TB hard drive next week to replace the current one that is giving up. When I can replace the 2TB hard drive with 4TB hard drive or larger I don’t know yet.

  17. I am theology and science spectator. I love outlandish hypothesis, measurement debates and paradigm squabbling. It is inevitable that the climate change debate would unfold in this venue….(i.e. Sun/Not Sun). Yet even better is the beauty of the drum plot and the amazing geology of Iceland.

  18. ***Please take this lightly i am trying to be funny***
    (before someone shoots me in the foot!)
    oh my we all know hamsters power computers and goblins live in the centre of the earth and the moons made of cheese :D…apart from this i as well are quite excited by the possibility of some action from Katla….even though i know animals may suffer and possibly humans too, but from fire is born new life they say 🙂 …please don’t be offended no goblins were hurt by my remark and i was being lightly funny!
    and Jon <3 great job!

    I would say however that in my own opinion no one should be talking god here especially as it is Jon's thread and i personally believe in science which kind of disproves a load of things, so lets just stick to Katla or whatever other force of nature is happening x

  19. by the way does anyone have a good place/website to find places to stay in iceland in the summer for me and an oldie who will need to have wheelchair access?

  20. I think that we behold the forces of nature that God created. There is no conflict between science and God. As a matter of fact it was a priest from Iceland that described the Laki eruption with great accuracy in 1783.”This past week, and the two prior to it, more poison fell from the sky than words can describe: ash, volcanic hairs, rain full of sulfur and saltpeter, all of it mixed with sand. The snouts, nostrils, and feet of livestock grazing or walking on the grass turned bright yellow and raw. All water went tepid and light blue in color and gravel slides turned gray. All the earth’s plants burned, withered and turned gray, one after another, as the fire increased and neared the settlements.”. The people of the small settlement of Kirkjubæjarklaustur were worshiping while the village was endangered by a lava stream, which ceased to flow not far from town, with the townsfolk still in church.(Wikipedia)

      1. Sorry. This was a comment to the pseudoscience posted here by different people. Not any prediction of Katla.

  22. Come on guys i think this is enough. Jon set this blog up to deal with volcanoes let’s show him the respect he deserves and stick to volcanoes. Many thanks

  23. Speaking of true god…
    Can those small spikes I’m seeing in god drumplot right now be harmonic tremor?
    They do look a bit different from the rest of the spiky action I’ve seen during the past week.

  24. Yes, agree. Jón, can you tell anything about the eartquake activity at Katla at the moment? Looking at vedur.is it seems quit. But are there small earthquakes going on?

    1. There is strong wind in south Iceland, this prevents smaller earthquakes from being detected. I don’t know if Katla volcano is actually quiet as it appears. Activity might have dropped since yesterday, but there is no good way to know that for sure in the current weather.

  25. Please note that this comment section (with this article and others) is not to discuss what you believe (god, planets and so on). This is about science since that is the only thing that is going to tell us when a volcano is going to erupt.

    1. I think the bullshit about cosmic rays etc. is the so called New age. I has nothing to to with God. I fully agree that this forum is about geology on Iceland. And that is very interesting and fascinating.

  26. Jon is there any sign of the bad weather easing in Iceland or is the weather in a cycle of storms at the moment?

  27. Actually I do like to observe the nature cycles of volcanic activity in Iceland and wonder whether there is a reason or causality behind.

    What I find remarkable about Katla is its periodicity in eruptions in the past 1000 years. It almost always erupted twice every century, usually early in a century (during the first two decades) and then by the fifth or sixth decade of that century. Not always but often.

    That is just a pattern and I think its just part of a normal chaotic system. Or perhaps the influx of magma is quite steady and regular and about every half a century, Katla erupts because of pressure reaching a threshold.

    However since 1918, the pattern was broken (volcanoes never follow such patterns for a long time) and now it has been a long time without erupting (except the small subglacial eruptions in 1955, 1999 and 2011)

    Also remarkable is Katla tendency to erupt in summer or early autumn. Perhaps due to seasonal meltwater triggering geothermal changes.

    Another interesting cycle is the recognized 130-160 years between Iceland hotspot peak of activity. I said back in 2010, that the last peak was some 100-120 years ago, and that we should be about to experience a new peak of volcanic activity in the next years and couple of decades.

    Even the Icelandic scientists and government spoke avout this back in 2011 and in years after. I remember them warning on Bardarbunga sometime I guess in 2012 or 2013. And we were all correct, and since 2010 we have seen evidence of this:

    – Grimsvotn eruption in 2011 was the first eruption with first fresh magma since Laki. Basically until the eruption of Grimsvotn in 2004, Laki magma was still left in the chamber and erupting. 2011 magma was fresh new magma, and a very strong eruption.

    Fimmvorduhals was also fresh new deep mantle.

    Holuhraun 2014 was also fresh new mantle magma.

    THis all points to a new hotspot pulse, and if correct, we will see many strong eruptions in Iceland in the next 10 or 20 years. Because volcanic systems have been freshly newly charged with new hotspot magma!

    1. Ahhh! How nice to have a sensible, informative, scientifically relevant comment.

      I am a professional theologian and I really wish other people wouldn’t give my like such a bad name: if it hadn’t been for theologians, there wouldn’t have been any modern science!!

  29. I read a recent abstract, from an article, that says they have discovered that Katla has 2 magma chambers, one at between 2km and 5km depth and another that is at between 10km and 25 km at depth and they also think it has a magma source that goes into the deep mantle.
    It was another poster on here that put the article on your page, it was when Katla had that last big swarm. So you can look it up and read it.

  30. Well, I’ll still be watching October 12 for Katla.

    I had some insight into why Eyjafjallajökull was such a hazard to air traffic and Bárðarbunga did not cause the same kind of trouble. The ash from “E” was very fine, whereas “B” was not, among other factors.

    Please keep us posted, “J”.

  32. Please note that I have updated the PayPal donation code, its now in English (UK), same goes for the regular donation button. I have also added a unsubscription button on the “Donation” page for people that want to cancel their regular donations for any reason.

  33. Jón, how do you interpret the god drumplot data? The small spikes that appear at regular intervals are still there. Is it just bad weather or could it be harmonic tremor? All I can tell is that they are different from any activity I have seen there lately, and kind of fit with some examples of harmonic tremor pattern available online.
    I know next to nothing about volcanology, but my logic says that harmonic tremor might not at first appear in the caldera itself (in this case, aus station) since the volcanic system is much larger than that area.

    1. Most likely it’s wind (strong gale). For an armonic tremors, it’s frecuency it’s much too low !!!!!

    3. Those small spikes are communication errors. Once harmonic tremor starts to appear it is going to appear on all the SIL station around Katla volcano at the same time, it is also going to appear on SIL stations far away from Katla volcano (maybe not NE Iceland, the SIL stations at the most distance from Katla volcano).

  34. Thanks & I see! Doesn’t the harmonic tremor frequency change as the magma moves and rises (and releases gases trapped in it and whatnot)? I take it that in even if it does, this would happen at a way higher frequency than tremor caused by strong winds?

    I’m trying to learn everything in time so that I can properly appreciate action when it I actually see it… 😀

      1. The hydro-volcanic eruption, like Mount Ontake 2014 was thought to be, is very hard to predict. There were no seismic and other signals until 11 minutes before it took place. It was likely a steam eplosion due to groundwater leaking into a new crack(s), excess water vapor may have been trapped providing the driving force for it in combination with magma activation at depht.

        http://www.livescience.com/48058-why-ontake-erupted-no-warning.html

        The study beneath shows that a Helium-3 anomaly is likely to be a valuable indicator for such phreatic eruptons.

        http://www.nature.com/articles/srep13069

  35. Jon is still wonder if Katla will have the same problem as her little sister in 2010 when she had a blockage in the vent.

  37. Hi Jon. Ive been exploring some of the public IMO data and found the following “azimuth of horizontal compression” for various locations and am trying to learn what this means:
    http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/ahc/ahc.html
    I think this is measurements in a vertical borehole – a cylinder cut into the ground. I think the angle (azimuth) means the angle from north that the bore hole is most compressed in. So, if an ice giant pinched the borehole with thumb and finger to north and south sides of the hole, the angle is 0deg.

    I thought it looks interesting how the azimuth changed a lot before the many man made quakes at Hengill in September. Also that there was a step change at Grimsvotn in September. Myrdalsjokull looks too noisy to be of interest.

    Do you look at this or have physical intuition on this data?

    1. I think this data is the focal point of the earthquakes that have happened.

      https://earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/beachball.php

      I don’t know how to read this data well, since I don’t know the format this is in. The website says the direction of most compression (in Icelandic). That in it self doesn’t tell me anything useful. I don’t think this is borehole measurement since that is just strain data. I did try to find the strain data, but I was unable to and the old website doesn’t work.

    1. There is limited information on what happened before an eruption started in the past. Since there where no instruments to measure it. Conductivity in Icelandic is “leiðni” on this images from Icelandic Met Office. You are looking for the glacier river “Múlakvísl”. Linking to this Icelandic Met Office website doesn’t work and I don’t know why.

  40. Jon there has been no quakes but some spikes seem to be quite high today

    1. This appears to be glacier quakes taking place due to heavy rain the area and high air temperature. It is currently unusually high temperature in Iceland at the moment.

      1. Nearly think it’s the same everywhere Jon with temperature we were running about in t-shirts today ha

      2. I ran the marathon today in Eindhoven (Holland) with beautiful weather (sun and no wind).
        Were you there too William?

    2. Stop this nonsense. No earthquake took place at 20:50 UTC, if it did it would have shown up on Icelandic Met Office website. For an earthquake to start a fire alarm system would require a major damage to a structure and even then it would not go off, as it fire alarm system is built to warn about fire, not earthquakes.

  43. Hi Jón,
    Thanks for your always interesting site. Just …why don’t you clean out the writings of trolls from the comments ? As they know themselves they are nothing but annoying – it’s the only sense of their nasty being.

    Best wishes from Switzerland !

    1. That is my next step, I plan on adding people how keep posting nonsense here to the moderator list so I have to check their comments before they appear. I don’t plan on removing the current comments since it messes up the comment order (WordPress bug).

  44. There seems to be some uncertainty as to the size of the 1918 eruption, just how big was it? And if you had to take a wild guess, how big do you think the impending eruption could be?

  45. Im still thinking it’s going to be a 6. The pipes have been blocked for far too long, gonna take a huge bang to correct. My money is on a major event in the next 18 months

    1. I don’t think you understand the scale of the VEI scale. VEI=6 eruption in Katla volcano would not only destroy the nearby area. Such eruption would make Iceland uninhabitable for up to 2/3 parts of it (depending on wind direction) and the only area that would be unaffected by such an eruption is the westfjörd due the fact they are the most distance from Katla volcano (along with small part of north-east Iceland).

      Eldgjá eruption in Katla volcano in 934 was only VEI=4, still that is the largest volcano canyon in the world. Being 40 km long, 270 meters deep and up to 600 meters wide. It erupted basalt just like Holuhraun, just a lot more of it. That type of eruption can and is going to happen again from Katla volcano. The eruption in Eldgjá lasted for 2 years (ice core research suggests this).

      What I fear from Icelandic volcanoes is not the eruptions that create ash (bad in it self) cloud or glacier flood. What I fear are the eruptions that create large lava fields, gas cloud (SO clouds, CO gas). The reason why I fear those more is because the lava eruptions can be way more destructive then eruption that creates a glacier flood in the start of it (as I say, they in them self can be bad due the damage they create along with the ash cloud that is formed and creates its own set of problem for the area it passes over). The gas and such material gets bound the the partials once they are blown up into the atmosphere and they just rain down and don’t create a lot of issue in that sense (most of it ends up in the ocean, creating algae bloom). That is not the case when the eruption is just lava. Then the gas just goes straight out in the atmosphere, creating problem for all living things and people.

      The thing about magma is that if it can’t go up it is going to go to the side (as was the case in Bárðarbunga volcano). I fear that might happen again (maybe soon) in Katla volcano, but there is no way to know and if such eruption happens it might be as big as the eruption that created Eldgjá close to 1082 years ago.

      Here is a minor size comparison, Holuhraun (2015) is 85 Km². The lava field from Eldfjá is around 800 km². Several times larger then Holuhraun.

      Here is a size comparison of eruption by magma erupted (km³).

      Eldgjá 18Km³
      Laki 14Km³
      Holuhraun 1.4Km³

      Sources

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eldgj%C3%A1
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holuhraun
      http://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=372030 (Katla)
      http://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=373010 (Grímsvötn)
      http://volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=373030 (Bárðarbunga)

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index

      1. Hi Jon,
        Don’t worry, I’m not one for rash commentary and I definitely don’t bring any form of imaginary friend to the discussion.
        I do have a rudimentary understanding of the VEI scale, and the consequence for Iceland and indeed Europe of VEI 6 and larger events. It is impossible to determine what is about to happen (the horizon of “about” being the coming years) I’m not an expert when it comes to volcanism but looking at the statistical probabilities presented by the historical record the probability of a large scale occurring is clear. A large eruption is something which is a real possibility and is one of just many scenarios which experts plan for.
        Such an event has only recently been included for the first time on the UK’s National Risk Register, in which it is considered to have a relatively high potential impact (4 out of 5), with the chance of occurring within the next five years estimated at between 1 in 20 and 1 in 200. The UK government established a Scientific Advisory Group in Emergencies (SAGE) with the remit to look at how the UK might respond to future eruptions. This on going project draws together a range of scientists from different disciplines, all of whom contribute to characterising the risk to the UK should a large-magnitude fissure eruption occur again.
        Reconstruction of the historic volcanic record in
        Iceland has revealed 205 eruptive events at an
        average of 20–25 eruptions per century. About
        150 of these involved significant explosive activity
        (Thordarson & Larsen, 2007; Gudmundsson et
        al., 2008). The Eastern Volcanic Zone is by far the
        most active, with 80 percent of verified eruptions
        originating here. It contains the six most active
        volcanic systems in Iceland: Askja, Katla, Hekla,
        Grímsvötn, Bárdarbunga–Veidivötn, and Krafla. The
        first four of these and Öraefajökull have produced
        20 large explosive eruptions in historic times with
        VEIs of 5 and 6, compared with a VEI of 4 for the
        2010 Eyjafjallajökull event

        https://www.ucl.ac.uk/rdr/documents/docs-publications-folder/icelandreport

        The direct impact on European population is startling. Referring to Excess mortality in Europe following a future Laki-style Icelandic eruption Anja Schmidt Using 2004 population data, [we] estimate between 27,500 (95% C.I. 22,600–32,200) (using 2003 meteorology) and 30,100 (95% C.I. 24,800–35,300) (using 2005 meteorology) additional all-cause fatalities from short-term exposure to PM2.5 over the course of 266 d following the onset of the eruption. To put [our] results in perspective, a large and long-lasting Icelandic eruption like Laki, potentially causing around 142,000 additional deaths in Europe in the first year, would constitute a major health hazard.

        http://www.pnas.org/content/108/38/15710.full

        http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/o/EffusiveEruptionModellingProject_FinalReport_small.pdf
        Its also worth considering that Whereas the Laki flows ~12 cubic kilometres advanced ~40 kilometres from the source fissure, historically flows such as the Roza flow (one of the larger of the Columbia River Basalt flows) ~700 cubic kilometres of basalt erupted from a single such fissure travelled up to ~500 kilometres west of the source fissure.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia_River_Basalt_Group
        http://geology.com/stories/13/volcanic-explosivity-index/

      2. Interesting study – “New estimates of sulfur degassing and atmospheric mass-loading by the 934 AD Eldgja eruption”

        Abstract: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001JVGR..108…33T

        This goes to my earlier post on how much is known about the potential content of So2 and HF+H2o and Co in Katla’s magma system. There are many factors that will determine how much gas pollution will impact global weather from a sustained Katla eruption, such as how long will it erupt at what intensity and with what content of gases. Katla may be a big dice throw on mother nature, but I don’t these variables are understood very well at this point. No one knows at this point.

      3. Btw, see the tephra and degassing estimates quoted in the abstract I linked above by Thordarson, et al. for the 934 AD eruption.

        “These estimates of the SO 2 mass loading from Eldgjá make it the greatest known volcanic pollutant of recent history, exceeding that of 1783 AD Laki and 1815 AD Tambora eruptions by factors of 1.8 and 2.0-2.8”

      4. Yes Zyfly, if your brain gets tired rational thinking is temporarely ‘switched off’. That’s why an intese political or scientific debate between two persons for longer than two hours becomes more or less objectless because the reaction pattern goes ‘off-topic’ so to say.

        Another source for the same abstract:

        https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223877630_New_estimates_of_sulfur_degassing_and_atmospheric_mass-loading_by_the_934_AD_Eldgja_eruption_Iceland

        The effects of the Eldgja gas pollution did not exceed that of the Laki one, because it is spread over a longer period.

    1. Word Press link recognition algorithm not recognizing the “…” in the URL. Jon, can you fix manually? My brain is tired and its late 🙂

  47. Pretty scary Jon what a volcano can do and how much it can change lives and landscapes forever when you read that article you wrote

    1. Investering read somewhere that the Laki eruption indirecte caused the French revolution in 1789 because the people got hungry after several years of ruined harvests caused by the accid rain. Laki caused worldwide 2.000.000 death, because of disturbed weather patterns and the accompanieng draughts.

  49. We can only thank our lucky stars in Ireland and Britain that those days are long gone for now anyway. Yes volcanoes are beautiful to watch but it’s what local communities of these places like Iceland have to go through.

    1. Not so fast Sherlock. The next 10 years in Iceland is widely expected to be a period of increased activity and Katla like others are decades overdue statistically. Katla has the “potential” to do worse than Laki 1783 but no one can predict whether or not it will.

      Watch this video and circle back to me afterwards.
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B4wvpO_7yw

      1. You misread his post, he said Ireland and Britain, not Iceland and Britain. You might want to consider some politeness as well more careful reading, instead of flaming out so fast.

      2. Ok Watson good point but Ireland and Iceland are ever so slightly different

  50. I think there is a pattern in the activity in Katla volcano. I’m not sure about it, but I’m looking into it. The data is just short of knowing if there is any pattern in this activity. I was planning to write an article about it, but I’ve decided to delay it until I’m ready with it.

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