According to the news here in Iceland there have been a formation of at least three new cauldrons in Mýrdalsjökull glacier, where they have not been before in the glacier. But this means that the hydrothermal areas under the glacier are growing in size due to new magma pushing up into the crust and warming it up.
This has been revealed after a daily checking of the status on the glacier. But the current cauldrons that formed on the 8 and 9th July have also deepened according to the same news. A lot of deep cracks are also forming in Mýrdalsjökull glacier. Making the south part of the glacier extremely dangerous at current moment.
There is also risk of minor glacier flood from water collecting under the glacier (both really small and slightly larger ones). But water might be collecting in ice-caves under the glacier and break free without any warning at all. The Civil Emergency Authority in Iceland warn against travelling in this area on Mýrdalsjökull glacier.
The reason why this is happening is the fact that hydrothermal activity is increasing under Mýrdalsjökull glacier in Katla volcano. But this is a clear sign that Katla volcano is warming up to a eruption. When that might happen is still a question with no answers.
Currently there is no good way to know what happens in regards to possible glacier floods due to this increased hydrothermal activity in Katla volcano. But floods are expected to take place without any warning now in this area.
Icelandic News with pictures of the cauldrons.
Þrýstingur fellur í sigkötlunum (Rúv.is, Picture)
Ferðamenn koma ekki nálægt sigkötlum (Vísir.is, Icelandic, Picture)
Ferðamenn aka ofan í ketil sem er að springa (Vísir.is, Icelandic, Picture)
Ástæða til að vakta svæðið (mbl.is, Icelandic, Picture)
Sigkatlasvæðið er varasamt (mbl.is, Icelandic)
Sigkatlasvæðið stækkað (mbl.is, Icelandic, Picture)
Blog post updated at 00:51 UTC 20. July 2011.
Did this sort of thing occur during the 1955 or 1999 “failed” eruptions ? Or has this not happened before?
There was some changes in the year 1999. But I do not know about the year 1955.
But in the case of the year 1999 it was not as extensive as now from what I remember.
I think somebody said 1 depression each for the 55 and the 99.
I remember seeing a picture posted in comments of a conical snow covered depression, during the EJ eruption on Eruptions blog.
The pre-eruption building up phase of many volcanoes starts with the opening of new hydrotermal areas in their glacier, new cracks, etc. This was the prelude of Redoubt volcano (Alaska) eruption in 2009, for example, as extensively documented by the Alaskan Volcano Observatory at that time.
I don’t know why some say that there are no signs of possible explosive unrest of Katla in the near future.
“I don’t know why some say that there are no signs of possible explosive unrest of Katla in the near future”
There may be signs that can be interpreted as “signs of explosive unrust” but there are no signs that can only be interpreted in such a way. As we live in the Information Age, monitoring is of a magnitude never attained before, so for all we know, this may be normal behaviour for Katla in periods between volcanic eruptions and she could have been doing this for almost a hundred years since the last in 1918. After all, it is several thousand if not ten thousand years since the last eruption of Geysir volcano, yet the geysirs Geysir and Strokkur have put on their show for hundreds of years.
If this is normal inter-eruption behaviour for Katla, then no doubt the next eruption proper will be “interesting”, meaning both “large” and “explosive” (at the very least equalling the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption) with time enough for the magma to fractionate from basaltic to andesitic or even andesitic-dacitic.
Thanks. Looks like the chances of a possible eruption in the near future is getting higher.
Technically correct…
But keep in mind that the chances of asteroid impact are also getting higher, as is bankruptcy, cooking down with a communicable disease, hitting the lottery etc.
Any thing that is time dependant always has its odds “going up” just because the number of “tests” is always going up.
* coming down vs cooking down.
(Autocomplete)
There is a growing crowd I have started to call “minimalists”. Its a reacton to all the seeming instability in the world. They certainly don’t want to be perceived as playing into all the negative hype and overreaction to events.
Of course, Scientists, out of practical necessity have to adhere to a strict set of rules that protect their livelihood and reputations. So their statements, especially when they are being quoted, are bleached for mass consumption and are couched in general or vague terms or euphomisms. Want to know how they really feel, hang out at the table next to where their wives are eating.
Yes, there is a lot of change in the world, some of it pretty bad. I personally believe we are in what is known as the “time of sorrows”. Its where you look at your 401k and bank statement and your property value and start to weep.
Scary to imagine there be jökulhaups without a preceding earthquake. So the ice has locally melt, and the meltwater is still trapped inside the icecap… but that once it finds a way through and starts running down it will result in an even bigger mass of water and half molten snow that goes on the move and not just by merely being dragged along.
If there is running water under a layer of ice, the melting process is speeded up, even with temperatures well below zero Cº. I’ve seen this in Holland in winter when the pumping stations are switched on to get rid of the superfluous water in the low lands, the polders. (Nearly half of the Netherlands is below sea level, so the Dutch need to keep pumping water out that enters the lower parts via the rivers.) What you see when the pumps are working, is that a layer of ice virtually disappears due to the drag and wear of the water that moves beneath it. In just a few hours a layer of, say, 30 cm can disappear. In some places though, the ice disappears faster than in others, so you would see holes in the ice – probably due to currents and the depth of bottom of the water body…
So, once the water starts running down, it will result in more melt.
Very interesting explanation, Xana.
And if you add geometrically heated water to the whole process, that could add up some more speed, couldn’t it?
Thanks.
It was supposed to be “geothermally”. Sorry!
No such word, but the meaning is still there.
If the keeps that ‘geometrically’ attained temperature while running down, I’d assume it would add up to the speed of the melt. Also if there’s a continueous feed of ‘new’ molten snow due to ongoing thermal activity.
Thanks for the explanation and for the kind understanding of my typo!
A large eruption could have negative effects in many ways, like short term changes to our weather systems for example.
A big eruption in Katla could also cause direct and immidiate problems with our already struggling economies, like grounding air traffic.
This was very popular on Icelandic radio last summer during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyQ1znMc3og
Im not a specialist, but i would expect a eruption in the near future.
I dont see the point in worrying about this stuff, if it blow it blows, its not the end of the world.
All that we can do is to be prepared, stop being scared and enjoy the show.
A good philosophy Fonix 🙂
RonF you are quite a “gloomy Gus” lately. You have made some cryptic references to the future of the SAF here in Calif…The place where the San Andreas and Garlock faults cross (the locked “big bend”) is right under my brothers bathtub (as near as we can calculate) near Frazier Park. Should he sell??
I know I’m not RonF, and You didn’t ask me, and who am I to dare saying anything. Let’s say I answer as “a friend”.
Yes.
Oh, and sell Your houses in Istanbul too…
And as I’m into advising: Don’t live in the first floors when settled in the Netherlands. Don’t live next to rivers. Don’t build houses under big walls in the alps, nor on too steep slopes if not anchored in solid rock, don’t live next to volcanoes, don’t live next to the sea, don’t live next to nuclear plants, Africa is too hot, Russia is too cold… Not easy to find a nice spot… And in general, try not to emit too much CO2…
Especially don’t live near nuclear plants. They need water. Their backup generators have to have pumps at water level. At Fukushima those pumps were destroyed. So in the kind of accident that can cause the main cores to shut down, it’s very likely the backup generators will fail also, no matter where the generators themselves are placed.
Thing is, climate change causes flexing of the crust, which causes tsunamis. It also causes sea level to rise, and snow packs to swell and melt faster, which causes river flooding. Many nuclear plants are built along rivers.
We now know the hot particle radiation from Fukushima contaminated cattle given feed harvested fifty miles from the accident. So you’ll want to live someplace not downwind from the plumes and more than 50 miles from the plants. Which is not true in my case, sad to say. Probably safer in Iceland. Geothermal is nuclear ultimately, since the Earth’s core is hot due in large part to radioactivity, but at least it’s better contained than nuclear plants, despite the volcanoes and whatnot.
Hmm, i live around 10 miles (by road) from a nuclear power station, around 8 miles from Europes highest rise & fall of tide in the Bristol channel, i’m not far from a tidal river, i live on the edge of the Somerset levels which are prone to flooding. But i don’t live near any volcanoes! Result 🙂
Karen, the cryptic references are part of a long conversation between Lurking and I so taken by themselves, they may seem cryptic to someone not following the thread.
No one can predict earthquakes or for that matter, tell someone to sell their house based on a hunch, scientific or what-not. If we could see into the ground and begin to understand why this fault is locked up so tight and why it is 150 years statistically over due, even then, no one is going to tell everyone on the fault to sell, though property values might start to decline if scientists were willing to go out on a limb more with this new knowledge and say it is, in fact, well past its loading phase and could break at any moment.
Having said that, if it were MY home, I would would sell it purely based on what I know, excluding other factors. In fact, its one of 3 primary reasons I sold in Anaheim Hills and moved out of state. My brother is a geologist that studies these faults and he and his wife won’t travel into that area without an earthquake bag in their car. One of this friends, a geologist, moved the Florida primarily because of these faults.
Karen, so if the SAF does snap, would I be gloomy then?
thanks Ron – My question was not altogether serious. We live with the earthquake threat the same way the people of Iceland live with the volcano threat. We plan as intelligently and wisely as we can for the inevitable and go about our business. Without the scientists who warn us we wouldn’t bother to plan at all.
My brother states that if there were an 8.0 on the SAF, it could well trigger the SJF and/or the Barstow fault. This could isolate So. Calif for awhile as all major infrastructure corridors pass over these faults.
If one were say 20 miles from home when the SAF breaks, forget driving home for awhile. Carry a backpack with h20 purification, dried food, a stove, shelter…basically backpack essentials, enough for 2 weeks.
Sort of a back fill on that long running conversation thing.
A while back, I noticed and plotted a rather large quake in the Gulf of California. It was interesting at the time, but as time went on, I forgot about it. A month or so later, and other semi-large quake, but roughly 15o miles further north. Independently, but at about the same time, RonF had noticed them also.
I collected about 20+ years of all quakes within 100 km of the SAF and plotted them as latitude vs time and noticed odd “stress waves” (for lack of a better term) that seemed to line up on occasion along the SAF.
After the Eyjafjallajökull event, we were kicking the idea back and forth. My projection of the “stress wave” put it passing into the SoCal area. At that point neither of us had a clue what it would do… and we differed on opinion as to what whatever it was, would be.
My thought was that any energy/activity would be taken up by the rubble pike of SoCal. Many of the fault blocks there slide horizontally, rotate, and roll about different axis over the millennia, accommodating the stresses as they pass by.
Other than that, it’s just an amusing sporadic conversation.
It’s been fascinating following this from afar, in California, via the internet. I was watching the quake swarm in real-time (almost) and just knew something had to be going on. Seeing the low-period harmonic quake chart posted today simply confirms what I’d suspected; that these quakes are at a likely precursor to an eruption. May be later this year, maybe not, but it seems something’s coming to the surface in that volcano. To see that much ice melted in a short 48 hour period is amazing!
“Seeing the low-period harmonic quake chart posted today…”
Hi, which particular chart do you refer to here?
I am flying to Iceland on Saturday and I really hope nothing happens till then. Once I am on the island, I will be going on the trip through Kirkjubæjarklaustur, Hekla and back to Reykjavík. If it blows while I am there, I hope insurance will cover my extra stay!
The Eyes of all who visit Jon’s blog, for whatever reason, have seen and suspected this activity over the last months. The speculations and discussions are, I am sure, going to be used as vital archives for future study. Jon I don’t think you realise what a very important and unique service you are providing.
I shall continue to watch and marvel as the Katla saga unfolds.
I too have the feeling that we are watching the awakening and I am also of the opinion it will not be too long in human terms before we see an eruption in the area.
I hope the glacial floods will not be too damaging and all in those areas are safe.
For those, like myself who have never visited Iceland and also for those who have I am posting a link to a series of short videos I came across, showing the absolutely stunning beauty of this land. Complete with the sounds of birds,water and wind it mesmerised me. The colours, the solitude, the warmth have been captured well. There are useful maps to show you exactly where the scenes were captured.
http://www.youtube.com/user/besobnb#p/c/E93F075DE022976B
Absolutely amazingly beautiful, thankyou ever so much for sharing this with us.
I’m sorry but with all respect, that is rather naïve. What we are doing here is speculating and trying to interpret the limited data coming. The IMO has specialists monitoring the Icelandic volcanoes very intensive. They will probably always be first to recognize new developments. What we do is a lot of fun because the IMO does not often publish their results right away, their publications are always relatively ‘late to the party’, in order to be really sure something is happening and reducing the risk of any false reports. This leaves the space for us to speculate and guess about what’s happening. This is a lot of fun and we learn a lot, but I highly doubt this is of any realy scientific utility.
With all respect I have for all here and Jon’s word, but Pieter is right. Let’s stay aware of who we are and what we do.
work, not word, of course
I am very naive when it comes to knowledge of volcanology I agree. (Definition (1) Having or marked by a simple, unaffectedly direct style reflecting little or no formal training or technique)
However I believe that here we have here first hand evidence in the opinions, observations and descriptions of effects of Iceland’s unique geology and position by ordinary people living in many countries .
This may be useful for future students not just of the workings of volcanoes but also of the sociological and commercial effects an eruption may have world wide.
I see Blogs as important for they represent thoughts and observations of 2011 just as historical diaries recorded the thoughts and observations of famous and also “ordinary” people. These latter are invaluable for giving insights of life in the past.
Early societies used cave paintings & Rock sculptures, George Washington used parchment, paper and pen. We use electronic technology. Hopefully some modern Blogs will be protected from any gigantic geo -magnetic storms and survive into the next few hundred years.
So Yes! I may be Naive (Definition (2)having or showing unaffected simplicity of nature or absence of artificiality; unsophisticated; ingenuous) but I do tend to think beyond the boundaries of pure Science.
I will leave you with a quote from The Economic Laws of Scientific Research by Professor Terence Kealey
“The loss of the hobby scientists has been unfortunate because the hobby scientists tended to be spectacularly good.”……….. They were good because they tended to do original science. Professional scientists tend to play it safe; they need to succeed, which tempts them into doing experiments that are certain to produce results. Similarly, grant-giving bodies which are accountable to government try only to give money for experiments that are likely to work…They represent the development of established science rather than the creation of the new. But the hobby scientist is unaccountable. He can follow the will-o’-the-wisp…Neither (Henry) Cavendish nor (Charles) Darwin would have survived in a modern university any better than did (1978 Nobelist Peter) Mitchell, yet they were scientific giants…”
I apologise for the length but I just wished to put an explanation of my views.
Scientist used to mean someone familiar with and up-to-date in all sciences (18 – 19th century). Today’s scientists are little more than technicians applying taught formulae to well-defined and exceedingly tightly delineated subsets of a particular subdivision of a major science. In short, a trained monkey can do science these days. People capable of thought outside the paradigm rarely make it past BA/MA before they are eliminated by the less capable but oh-so-reliable stolids. 😉
I agree with You so much on the principle, and it’s the kind of thought that lead me to a path away from the academy. But when we begin to analyse whatever-corders and data, and speculate about a jumping line meaning harmonic tremor and imagine 1:1 relations between harmonic tremor and eruptions, we fall into the monkey-thing You’re talking about. And in matters of the monkey thing, there are better gorillas than us in the different academic institutions. I’m the first to think we should sometimes adopt an approach comparable to the ooold scientists, but that somehow means You’re allowed to say “I FEEL that something will happen because I observe this or that”, because our brain treats more information that we can easily put to paper. And even here I saw people “corrected” when they used terms like “think” or “feel”…
Besides, thank You Diana, it was delicious to read You this time, even if I think I see exactly what Pieter meant and that he was tight to say it.
One more thing, for the fun. Is it only me or do we see that those with an academic degree somehow have a tendency of wanting to make clear that even if they dare leave the boundaries of their classic education they are capable or rational / intelligent thinking?
Vanity. I don’t want it, but sometimes it “happens”. We are soooo much of nothing. Humility is a great lesson that Iceland teaches us like no one else… 🙂
That is why I don’t think that it is a good idea for me to become a professional scientists. Like many people have told that I should do.
I am good at this as it is. But without the professional background that so many people want me to have (mostly in Iceland and relative and friends).
I am going to learn more on Geology. But keep my place where it at the moment. That is not going professional in this field.
Maybe you should go into meteorology. For example, a lot of the best hurricane forecasters will look at model output and say things like, “The model gives this range of possible tracks. I think that it will move more towards the western edge of the forecast track because the ridge of high pressure seems to be building faster than forecast.” …And they’re usually right.
As a person who has done a lot of scientific research and experiments, I trust my intuition. I just can’t write about my intuition in a paper.
Good story above about ethics and science, I like to read this blog (despite a dislike scrolling, and why no facebook account?) And I do not take everything as absolute truth. They are just interesting stories.
The principle investigator of the Mars Exploration Rover missions, Steve Squires, has said he checks the amateur forum Unmanned Spaceflight before anything else when he gets online, because they do the best composite images and are much more timely than NASA. I don’t think we should sell ourselves short, even if IMO is privileged with skills most of us (including me) lack and tools and data they don’t immediately share.
Not to criticize too much — IMO beat USGS hands down for well-organized rapid presentation via the web. It’s partly due to the quality of the IMO web that this blog has become such an interesting place for so many. And I’d wager valid observations have been made here before IMO personnel noticed them.
The IMO website might look prettier, but USGS offers free access to raw seismic data through the IRIS consortium among other things (raw water flow, gps data, etc). This is a very useful and instrictive thing for amateurs. IMO doesn’t do that, which is a shame, but I can understand their choice.
Still – no matter how pretty the videos they never beat the chewing on a straw lying beside a creek feeling … 😉
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and making it accessible here. Absolutely fascinating and informative.
I found this video which I had not seen before. It is footage from a flight over Mýrdalsjökull and the surrounding area from 4 days ago. You can see cracking and cauldrons from around the 3:40 mark, the video quality is very good, up to 720p, for those that like to get a detailed look. 🙂
Now since it is from July 16th it won’t show the new changes and cauldrons that Jon talks about in his post though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzxiTtN9FTM
Spectacular footage.
Not only shows Mýrdal, but also Eyjafjallajökull.
Thanks for posting.
Great video. Interesting to see the water level in those cauldrons. I can’t remember that from the first videos.
Does this water come from rain or does it come from below meaning there is a lake below the ice sheet?
Lovely footage. Thank you gandalfi. Interesting also for seeing Glaciers in “Action” Terrific amount of water coming out!
Thank you gandalf1 – I was in the area that same day, Dyrhólaey, Sólheimajökull & more – safely on the ground though. Wonderful day!
It looks beautiful, I would love to visit some day 🙂
It is definately worth visiting 🙂
Thank you
Brilliant. Good to see Eyjafjallajökull again 🙂
I am another silent but fascinated long time observer of this forum and just wanted to thank you also for this link – stunningly beautiful videos! What a breathtaking country Iceland is.
Much of the world who followed the eruption (and the ensuing disruption!) at Eyja have probably forgotten about Katla but, thanks to this forum and it’s contributors, I have been able to follow the events and stay well-informed on events which could well affect us again here in the UK in the not too distant future.
KATLA Cam just went off line 🙁
This is not the Time to Rob us of our Prize!
The camera wont be of any use until you see ALOT of sesmic activity on IMO. So just as long as they get it working before any eruption all is good.
Well, you should not worrie to much although the Katla Cam went off – there are many other cams with wonderful Icelandic landscape to enjoy. There is not much happening at the moment in Katla.
From what I understand and have read is that if Katla is really on the move we would first see increasing earthquakes. There are reports of quite strong earthquakes in the area around the volcano before eruptions in the past. Probably we would see a few “stars” on the EQ monitor meaning some earthquakes above 3 in size, before she would erupt. Jon and others will correct me if I am wrong.
If you see that happening then there is time to start watching the Katla Cam 🙂
Your right!
But, in the case of a run-up to an eruption, we would also see a lot of seismicity and earthquakes with the tendency to more shallow quakes. Which means, for an eruption there needs to be a feeder chanel from the deeper layers inside the volcano towards the surface. When this chanel is beeing built, the quakes will start somewhere at 5-6km or even 15-20km depth and progress towards the surface. when this happens, and Lurking is quite awesome in mapping those quakes, the probability for an eruption rises drastically. as long as the quakes are spattered all around, there wont be an eruption yet.
All this happend at Eyjafjallajökull and all of us were able to watch the run-up towards the eruption. at least the ones who knew Jons Blog ; )
The scientist have to be a little humble to, because the reason for our speculations is the poor possibilities to predict if a volcano will erupt, when and how.
Nobody has a magic stick. All cook their tea with water. Whoever lacks humility is an ar…h.le… 🙂
Indeed. It is worth remembering that last year, 17 days before the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull began, the Iceland Met Office said “there is nothing that indicates that there are necessarily any change coming”.
http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2010/03/03/stodugir_smaskjalftar/
This is how the earthquakes looked around Eyjafjallajökull at the time.
http://www.mbl.is/frimg/5/23/523977.jpg
Very good pointed!!! Yes i thing it’s obvius that katla will erupt in very near futur… i say until the end of this year.
Last time Katla was a little active at the last milenium (much less than this time), Hekla had an eruption. It should have it now if the 10 year cycle is reapeted. But this time all vulcanos there seems to move in some kind of chain. But nobody knows realy.
It’s exactly this “all at the same time” thing that has me interested. For the last decades, earth has been unusually calm, and our society had the opportunity to develop and become very vulnerable. I think we’re going to have a bad wake-up even when something no so exceptional happens in terms of natural hazards, especially if it’s big geological phenomena… In Iceland, all of a time has me thinking of potential activations of whole systems like Bardarbunga or Hengill. Who could give valuable clues to predict them?…
Here we go again, looking at spikes and lines, but I think its more interesting than looking at clouds on the webcam 🙂
Is there something interesting on some of the SIL stations?
HVO http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/hvo.gif
SLY http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/sly.gif
ALF http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/alf.gif
Probably nothing, but even then I will have learned what another nothing looks like. 😉
Yes i see it too… the weather isn’t very good but we never know. it seams it’s piking up again. but this can be just bad weather…
Nevermind, looking more normal on the next update 🙂
Noticed for some days now, that no updates (new measurements) have appeared on any of IMO GPS measuring station time plots. Have they stopped updating, have a failure in their computer system (online-web) or are the webmasters gone for holiday? Or are we not to see, until after something has happened?
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/vatnajokulsvoktun/
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/hekluvoktun/
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/englishweb/gps/cts/emyrfr2004.html
RT @InsuranceERM.com
“Iceland volcano Katla will erupt in next few months and will disrupt European airspace says Chris Kilburn, Aon Benfield conference”
I think Chris Kilburn should have said “could” instead of “will”, unless he has Ms Katla’s telephone number and knows things nobody else does 🙂
This I agree with. Could is the word. It looks a distinct possibility but nobody really knows.
Unless, of course, your definition of “a few” is actually “several thousand” and “disrupt European airspace” actually means “cause a few noobs to panic”, in which case, Kilburn’s argument can’t be faulted. If you see my point. 😛
I can not find that quote on the internet anywhere else.
If we will se a full eruption of katla larger than 1918, a millenium thing maybee, then i think small air trafic disturbsions is only a small thing af what will happen. We can get a small “ice age” cooling period due to particles. Poisening clouds etc. Last time 1783. Dont forget that.
Some quotes from Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katla_volcano
The flood discharge at the peak of an eruption in 1755 has been estimated at 200,000–400,000 m³/s (7.1-14.1 million cu ft/sec), comparable to the combined average discharge of the Amazon, Mississippi, Nile, and Yangtze rivers (about 266,000 m³/s (9.4 million cu ft/sec)).
The severe fissure eruption in 934 that released 5 cubic Km of tephra and 18 cubic Km of lava was one of the largest lava eruptions in the past 10,000 years
And in 16:th century we did not have high technology that we are totally dependent of.
I think a big eruption (VEI5 or VEI6) will happen sometime within the next 30 years. This is due to the cycle of activity of the Icelandic hot spot being increasing to its maximum sometime in the next decades. There were a lot of these big eruptions in the past of Icelandic history, and yet only a couple had significant climate impact.
There is no historic report of of climatic disruption from the eruptions of 934 Eldgjá, 1114 Hekla, 1362 Oraefjokull, 1477 Veidivotn, 1755 Katla or 1875 Askja, which are some of the top most powerful eruptions in Iceland history.
Apparently only Laki in 1783 had an impact, and that was because of the immense amount of sulphur gas released, not the ash.
VEI6 eruptions in Iceland don’t disrupt so much the climate as the ones happening in the tropics, because the ash is more confined to the poles, while the ash from the tropics blows more to the temperate regions.
Katla rarely has eruptions bigger than VEI6. Usually they are VEI3-5. The last eruption in 1918 has a minor impact in climate, the winter of 1919 was very extremely cold. Even Edlgjá (a VEI6) did not disrupt the climate because the eruption was spread along several years. I think the next eruption will be VEI5, estimating from the inflation data.
Another thing, a VEI6 (like Laki) does not lead to any ice age, there is powerful disruption in the climate, which can provoke big failure in crops (something really bad), but its less worse than a 1816 year without summer, resulting from the VEI7 Tambora. And this is only a temporary disruption (1-3 years).
For much more disruption, just look what happened in 536 and 1314, these were periods of climatic chaos for a decade; the cause is not known, either an unknown VEI7 or a meteor impact. Still it’s no ice age. Very catastrophic but not an ice age. Humans would overcome it of course, but these would be hard times.
It’s also nothing to wish for. I think there is too much fascination with this huge eruptions. It seems it’s almost as some people wish that this would happen, to receive their huge dopamine boost. 😉
Finally, in 20th century, there were two VEI6 eruptions, in 1912 and 1991 (Pinatubo) and these cause almost no climatic disruption. The only thign I can recall is the rare snow when I was a child in 1992, since in my city rarely snows.
Interesting, Irpsit. I’ve read that book “Catastrophe” about the 536 event, how it caused massive changes like the collapse of empires around the world.
Re ash from Katla, if it went over the Arctic that could have a serious consequence. The ice up there is now very thin. The cloud might cool it, but then if the timing is right the fallen ash could darken it. If that happened during the summer months, it could cause even more drastic ice loss than we’re seeing already. I know studies have already shown darkening from particle deposition can increase ice melt rates.
If in winter, or even much of the summer, with luck the dark layer would be covered by snow, at least temporarily — but even then as it becomes re-exposed it would serve to heat the ice more than would have happened without it.
And of course, loss of the sea ice has huge climate impacts on its own — changes in sea currents, cold melt water seeping south, subsequent changes to air currents …
I think he does have a allot more data than made public, just by following a few sites and reading all the info on this site, I have notice that the eq’s have moved slowly over the last 8 months to the katla area. How many deep holes in the ice now? Me thinks about 7-9 and not space that much apart. Also melt water in them and expanding. Beyond the summer normal melt? Chris gets paid to alert companies and public org’s. The more water it holds the bigger the problem, I hope allot of small floods happens and no one gets hurt.
Another tiny earthquake towards the new vents created by the Eyjafjallajokull eruption last year, measuring 0.0 on the ricter scale! 🙂
GANDALFI:
“looking at spikes and lines, but I think its more interesting than looking at clouds on the webcam”
With all respect:
I don’t understand why do you people keep hitting at the same key. Neither why am I insisting on this steam-or-cloud debate. 🙂
Spikes and lines mean little for those who can’t understand how to read them. Gazing at cams can be much more interesting for these people.
And even for those who can read tremor graphs, this knowledge may lead to wrong conclusions, as it is the case of Surono, volcanologist in charge of the in Indonesian Mitigation Agency, who confessed he can’t accurately forecast the next eruption of Lokon, just because the number of harmonic tremors exceeds that expected as preceding a “regular” eruption.
The same happens with the media that would not believe the rumors of an imminent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, as pointed by the link provided by you.
A scientist should be open-minded, so to speak, like a doctor who should take in consideration all possible symptoms described by his patient.
Two months before Cordon Caulle’s eruption, a fumarole was noticed at Puyehue summit. “- Impossible!” – said both, scientists and the media. Shérine kindly provided the link to this article. Meanwhile, there were other remote signs pointing towards an eruption (such as the impossible fumarole) that were disregarded by SERNAGEOMIN, until a sequence of strong earthquakes proved an eruption was imminent.
Such guys acted like Cardinal Barberini who would not look at Galilei’s telescope because he wouldn’t indulge in any type of mistrust of Aristotle’s wisdom.
We saw three tornado shaped plumes. Pics have been made. Next day, three new cauldrons were found opened in Mýrdalsjökull. As well as hydrothermal activity, just as I expected. No one said that Katla was eruptimg. Neither did I, and I am only a retired Biologist.
Isn’t it healthier to speculate as for the origins of such weird “clouds”?
Couldn’t they be some kind of meteorological feature, like a whirlwind that causes the regular clouds (made of steam) to ascend, due to decrease of pressure from the breaking glacier, or whatever?
Anything, but not keep blindly saying there was no steaming. There was, clouds prove it. Not a steam plume, but steam clouds in motion. And they are still happening, barely visible and not the way they looked on the other day.
Those were not regular clouds, I tell you, and hereafter I’ll keep looking both at those cams and at the tremor plots, and at Jón’s helicorder, to get a better perspective of the whole. And hear Xana’s explanations about flowing waters under an icecap.
They can be regarded as some kind of hint, if we wouldn’t act so stubbornly.
Caulle has been erupting for almost two months and I wonder what a mess a similar eruption would have caused in Europe…
Best 🙂
Who wants to understand the flowers should also notice the bees… 🙂
Thank you Renato for your wise comments.
I’m neither a scientist nor a volcano expert, but I know a litte about many things and like to search and find answers on difficult questions.
For example, I know that the heat of the magma is strong enough to melt megaliters of snow and ice in short time. I suppose the snow or ice that made contact with the heat very, very soon went boiling under the icecap, turned into steam and went upwards.
Why shouldn’t steam be able to escape at the moment the cauldron was a fact, then condense and form a visible steam-cloud?
I also saw the “three tornado shaped plumes”, a very surprising sight. At that moment the computer did not allow me to mace pics of them (now everything works again) but I’m glad to hear others did.
Pictures are just one aspect of the knowledge around Katla, but they are important for the understanding of what happens.
So I think there should be a place on internet to upload pics to share with all interested. The webcam pics are very interesting, certainly when they include the bottom line with location, date and time. But there are also many other sources. If the readers of this blog sent all their stuff to one place, accessible to everyone, we would have a lot of material to study on.
Jon, do you think this is a good idea?
I think just below the ice in Katla, there is much more hydrothermal activity, yes new fumaroles, and probably there was already some phreatic explosions, even possibly some magma coming out (but not confirmed). I think this is what happened in both Katla and Hamarin, and also in Grimsvotn back in 2010.
I am open minded, Renato, I think this type of activity, could actually release steam, and you could have already seen it. So far, I have never seen in the webcams steam. It could that the steam is very little or brief, and so it vanishes away, or then you see the “cloud” only above the glacier, because the steam would have stop being released. But nothing on the news so far. They have been flying the glacier every day now.
There are holes in the ice cap, but the ice cap is quite thick, about 600 meters, so any steam released would have trouble getting to surface. So much ice to travel, would make the steam cool and coalesce into liquid water again.
Nevertheless, I think this increase in heat in Katla is because the magma has been accumulating very close to surface, and so this is a clear sign of a large eruption in soon. I am very confident on this, this is not science, rather my opinion and bet 😉 I think it is misleading that many people in the authorities and media have been saying that these are not signs of a future eruption. Magma has been rising to surface, sometime that reminds me to what happened to Mt St Helens before its VEI5 eruption. Anyways, from what I heard here in Iceland, there are also many Icelandic scientists that suspect that Katla is going to erupt in soon.
o/t crazy man getting hot lava must see for yourself
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14184722
crazy man getting hot lava: a most see for yourself http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14184722
first time writer. Jon you are doing a great job keeping up with this blog (website) thks.
crazy man getting hot lava
I’m not sure to understand how climate change flexes the crust… ?
Climate change does not change the volcanic activity. There is no known relationship. Volcanoes have been always happening, and big huge eruptions too. It is just that nowadays things are more present in the media. However, I suspect that in Iceland, climate warming, can melt glaciers, this releases pressure from the ice cap, and so it can make eruptions more easily.
wial put it that way.
In my opinion it’s clear that geology effects the climate (volcanoes as You say, but obviously plate tectonics), while es the other way, it might be but is more difficult to prove. The crusts movements following charge and discharge by glacial accumulation (eg. the tilt of Britain after the last ice age) is very slow. So it’s not sure how it effects volcanic activity compared to other dynamics taking place in the mantle – only imagine convection or any subduction… If we look back at earth history, we see that the climate changes “easily”, or let’s say quickly, especially compared to big geological changes. That leads me to think it’s rather climate that reacts to geology than the opposite, at least as main causality in this relationship. Thanks for the input.
What do You think, wial?
I think this was meant in reply to a point I was trying to make? To be sure it’s still debated, but the argument goes melting ice and changes in density as the oceans heat change the balance of mass at a global scale. Obviously it’s pretty hard to prove the quakes off Indonesia and Japan happened sooner than they might have due to this, but I believe there is evidence at more local levels, e.g. glaciers melting on volcanoes. However, it simply stands to reason if you change the way the weights of the ocean and global ice are distributed it will affect the crust. I suppose someone could do the math on that. For starters, and I know sea ice isn’t the best case because it rests of water, if I read the PIOMAS chart right the Arctic has lost about 15000 cubic kilometers of ice since 1979 …
Thanks for precisions. Though remain thinking it’s secondary, even if obviously possible and one of the elements that work the whole system.
That video was good nice detail. By the way the ice slumped I think the glacial flood was stopped mid track by an ice dam or a rock dam of its own causing, this has caused the water to be visible at the spout, its probbably still running somewhere out of sight doing damage to the glacier. Or building up or both.
If she is still warming I think the glacier will run again, perhaps an ice dam will stop it again perhaps not.
The run if it is big will possibly trigger an eruption. By taking weight off of the plug/caldera.
Am I right? If so Katla is dangerous from her own flooding and glacial weight release.
As the eruption starts there will be a big quake from the weight released, the ice run will cause a quake too.
So there will be quakes but perhaps not the actual cause.
I am only theorising, please don’t take what I say as what is going to happen.
Its just the potential of all that ice, water and weight.
Besides being beautiful those glaciers are truly massive, I can see how the 1918 eruption caused a tsunami, the flow was more than the 3 largest rivers put together at its height. Its definitely a case of “be careful what you wish for” as the old saying goes.
I just cannot imagine how the flood was, and might be again.
Well, you can actually imagine it, if you drive close to Katla and see her amazing and immensely flooding plains. Trying to fit there the Amazon river is something really unbelievable, but certainly happened in the past.
One part of me would wish for an eruption (but not too big), because I get tired of waiting for it, of not being able to travel safely close to Katla without thinking of it. When it happens, after that, no one is going to think about that for a big while.
LOL geoloco. So where do u recommend living?? 🙂
A little above the Swiss middle land, on the first, not to steep elevations of the Prealps, founding Your house in the bedrock. (to take with a healthy dosis of humor…)
But a big eruption could change the climat in short term.
It the CO2 from my car can (…), a volcano can. Sulfides, ash, andandand… Take a really big eruption and it’s more than local and more than short term. Take Yellowstone and Campi Flegrei (as it’s the two that interest me most) – their history is not a myth, but a fact, as their potential is – but of course the probability to see the blow in the next 50 years ist quite special to evaluate… 🙂
Nature works with buffers. We never now where “in” the buffer we are and how much it can take before any change in some system-behavior is induced…
All very interesting comments. The video of iceland was amazing. LOVE the waterfalls. Will be watching to see what happens next. Is it just releasing a bit of energy or is a big eruption coming?? Only time will tell. Amazing pics of the glaciers and meltwater. 🙂
It has to do with how large the eruption are. But that is the point. A large vulcnic eruption on Iceland can cause climat change. Not an ice age, but a temporary cold climat. It has happend in Europe before, dispite what a person wrote before in this forum.
When volcanoes erupt, they funnel ash, debris and gases into the atmosphere. One of these gases, sulfur dioxide, can react in the atmosphere to form sulfate aerosols, which are tiny particles suspended in the air. These aerosols can scatter the incoming rays of sunlight, not only producing colorful sunsets, but also changing the amount of solar radiation that reaches the Earth’s surface, and therefore potentially altering global temperatures.
On average, temperatures in Europe during 1784 were about 2°C below the norm of the second half of the 18th century; and the closer to Iceland, the bigger the impact. Iceland itself was almost 5°C colder than normal and saw the longest period of sea ice around the island ever recorded. Berlin and Geneva, about 1,300 miles away, were 2ºC below normal, whereas the anomaly in Vienna, 1,700 miles from Laki, was only 1.5°C. Stockholm and Copenhagen, the nearest cities at just over 1,000 miles distant, saw temperatures drop by over 3°C. The eastern United States suffered one of its longest and coldest winters, with temperatures almost 5°C below average
The cloud also killed people 1783 -1784 by sulfur dioxide.
But if you want a possible disaster: pyroclasm vesuvius naples.
Nice examples. But quite frequent stuff compared to geological times. It could be discussed from when we speak of “large”… 🙂
Jonas, Volcanoes do create climatic cooling if big enough (must be at least VEI6 or VEI7 for big short-term impact) but they are not so common. Minor disruptions like the one from Pinatubo in 1991 (also a VEI6), are more common but nothing significant.
There have been several VEI6 eruptions in Iceland with no significant climatic disruption. So far, only Laki in 1783 seem to have had a big impact, and it was only a VEI4+ per ash released. Scientists think that the impact of Laki was mainly due to sulphuric gas, not the ash. And also because the eruption released that gas all in a short time (unlike Eldgjá in 934, which was spread over years and so has no impact even if it released an higher amount).
Also, generally, the ash tends to blow northwards in Iceland (unless we have the negative phase of the North Atlantic Circulation, which is rare, but happened precisely in 2010 and also in 1783). Usually, most ashfall from Icelandic volcanoes fall to the north of the country, not so much southwards. This happened with the biggest eruptions of Hekla in 1104 or Askja in 1875. So, usually Europe is somewhat saved. Of course, in nowadays airplane society, a minor change of wind, will blow some particles southwards and then airplanes cannot fly.
So usually it’s only tropical volcanoes that cause climatic disruption. It’s not me saying this, it is the word of specialists in climatology. And you can see this from the list of historic records. Significant climatic cooling from volcanoes in last millenium was from Kuwae in 1453, Huaynaputina in 1600, Laki in 1783, Tambora in 1815 and Krakatoa in 1883. Therefore, it’s an event than happens about once per 200 years, but the global impact is quite dramatic. It can lead to civilization collapse, because it did already, but that is quite rare.
What is interesting, is that if you look at http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/largeeruptions.cfm (the list of world biggest eruptions in past centuries), you can see how often does Iceland features with the biggest eruptions. Even more curious is that Vesuvius and Azores have erupted often VEI5 in recent centuries. Imagine what ash impact would that have in nowadays Europe. But they did not cause any weather impact in those times.
VEI5 eruptions might have only at best a minor impact, as did Katla in 1918. But even large VEI6 eruptions last century have not caused significant change, such as the ones in 1912 or in 1991. As you can see, only five eruptions did cause that in the last 1000 years, to the best of knowledge. Of course, there might be some eruptions that were not documented and be missing in this list.
But with this I should not minimize the impact that Laki had. Yes, it was indeed a terrible impact. The weather pattern was already peculiar when the eruption started, and so the ash and the huge amounts of sulfuric gas blew southwards and cause a record hot summer in 1783, but the sun was always hidden in a haze.
Then, the winter 1783-1784 was extremely cold, and then the following years there were several extremes.
The biggest other eruptions in the past were from Eldgjá in 934, , Hekla 1104, Oraefajokull in 1362, Veidivotn in 1477 and Askja in 1875, all VEI5 or VEI6 eruptions. I don’t know if these cause weather changes in Europe. At least, there is nothing from what I have heard. Maybe something happened but it was small.
Back to 1783 Laki, I discovered that there were already severe winters before the eruption. Look here
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=other;type=winthist;sess=
So that may explain why the impact was so severe.
New earthquake swarm starting at Katla?
A new swarm begining in katla?
@wurzeldave: at least You don’t have a so bad earthquake situation, and the risk to suffer the consequences of a big meteorite impact is more or less the same for all uf us.
I think most of us will die from a heart attack or cancer, or long term consequences of marriage or holding back decent driving because we try to save the planet with always weaker engines and very small tires… But of course I might be wrong and only future will tell…
That’s right GeoLoco, the earthquake risk is small where i live (having said that it is believed that Glastonbury Tor tower was partly destroyed by an earthquake in the 1200’s). And yes the future will certainly let us know what will become of us.
I think I am more likely to die from overdosing on dopamine , caffeine & too many ginger biscuits leading to overweight whilst I sit here admiring the views of Katla and the views of all of you here. Not to mention the rise in blood pressure as yet another small red dot pops up in Myrdalsjokull. I think my end will be more likely due to these factors rather than a “Super Eruption”.
Yayyyy!” Way to Go” as they say in the USA!
@Zakos
Maybe, maybe not, however we cannot assume that a swarm is starting because of 2 small earthquakes! 🙂
P.S: Sorry if I was a bit harsh! 🙂
Especially if these quakes were already 40 minutes ago.
I think my living here isn’t that bad…
I don’t live below sea level atleast not now, maby
When all the ice would melt, maby I have to build boot in my
Backyard, gives me something to do this summer, while
Waiting for Ms. Katla…
In my opinion, Katla “wake up” was July 8th, 2011, these “new” depressions are similar to them said to have preceeded last eruption(s): The Glacier folded (collapsed) in one part, rose on another, says in one Katla history book. We just wait and see what happens next …
Katla is really cooking with gas now. Great photo.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/naas-katla-gets-up-late-for-deserved-listed-win/887480/top/
Ah! I see Katla is on the long way to Tipperary.That’s Irish for saying “You must be patient my friends”
One thing about it,
is you won’t know
until it blows.. God Bless one and all!!
One thing about it,
you won’t know
until it blows..
God Bless one and all!!
Nope no swarm yet, just 3 very small EQ’s, and a good while passed without anymore, though the night is is still young so anything can develop in the coming hours 🙂
Too right John!… 🙂
@ Diane you from Ireland? Me too!
why are they monitering the boilers on the katla webcam and what are boilers????
It says “Vöktun RÚV á Kötlu í samstarfi við Almannavarnadeild ríkislögreglustjóra og Mílu.”
Katla translated through Google Translate is “boilers” 🙂
Katla means “Kettle”! So you’re Very Close ha ha!
gee that was dumb hahahaha It looked so diferent with the sun in the back and dark valleys. Ooops Sorry about that and thanks gandalfi
Mount Pinatubo reduced the entire globe’s temperate by an entire degree for 5 years.
And Tambora was quite literally a few numbers away from being a VEI-8. It was gargantuan.
See, at first I always believed that KATLA was similar to Tambora, because their craters/Calderas were both very large. (Tambora 4-Miles Across, Katla diameter of 6miles)
But it’s not about how big the caldera is, because only a small part of it may immit a plume/lava. It’s about how Deep it is & how much Magma there is below.
Tambora was a very unique Volcano. The Magma was built up over 57,000 Years! That’s a frightening amount. It’s Caldera is 4,000ft Deep.
Apart from a Large Eruption which included the Canyon back in 934 which was a VEI-6, Eruptions at Katla are fairly average. No way as Big as Pinatubo. So I don’t know why that is on Wikipedia! Someone just over exaggerating I think! lol!
Also, another study of the previous eruption shows that the Ash from this Volcano is Dense, Coarse, & Heavy. So it probably won’t even disrupt Air-line Traffic. It will affect Iceland monumentally, however. Because of the Floods it will cause. 1 Scientist suggests that if the eruption is on the front of the Glacier, it may cause a Tsunami aimed at Scotland & Ireland. (And hopefully my Mother’s Crockery Collection!)
So lets not get excited! This is a relatively Small Eruption! And for Haraldur Sigurdsson to tell us that it “Could Knock out Global Telecommunications” is just… Well… Crazy!?
Is there something they’re not telling us?!!
Please get your facts straight:
-Tambora 1815 was nowhere near a VEI-8, the eruption ejected approx. 160 cu km, which is just enough for VEI-7. VEI-8 requires at least 1000 cu km
-Magma was build up for 57.000 years? Please, it had multiple eruptions before 1815. The eruption interval was max. 1040 years.
-Pinatubo only led to a 0.5-0.6 C degrees drop in temperature around the northern hemisphere, the world average drop was even lower.
-The caldera depth equals possible eruptive force? Come on, this theory suggests that Yellowstone is a peacefull harmless lil’ volcano and that Piton de des Neiges (Reunion) is a monster supervolcano. The shape of a caldera depends on so much more than eruptive force.
-The wikipedia article states that the VEI6 eruptions of Katla are compareable in size to Pinatubo, which is a fair statement since they both share the same VEI-rating.
Something I have been ruminating on… is that there exists semi-permanent weather phenomena, such as westerlies, the Azores/Bermuda high(s) the Aleutian and Icelandic Lows.
In another thread, far far away and long long ago (like, 3 days), an article about paper was linked to. The gist of what it was about was that moderate to mid size volcanic eruptions can have a greater impact on the stratosphere than originally thought. This is due to circulation patterns dragging SO2 up into the stratosphere, or higher into the stratosphere. Essentially, the volcano doesn’t have to do a full-on punch like Pinatubo… it just has to get close. The circulation will do the rest. What the mechanism is to get it across the tropopause was unclear… unless the circulation they were mentioning was it.
I bring this up because Iceland usually has a low parked near it, or over it for much of the year. (when the NAO index isn’t being squirrelly) Surface low systems are in general, an upwelling of air. This causes/enhances cloud the thunderstorm formation. In the tropics, low loft warm-moist air and make tropical systems… in Iceland, the just makes bad weather. But lifting air is what lows are all about.
So…. how about any prevailing eruptions and whatever SO2 plume they have? Would the area around the Icelandic low be more favorable at lifting SO2 to near the tropopause if it didn’t get thrown there by the source volcano?
Though Grimsvotn’s last eruption easily blew right past the tropopause, a lesser eruption might be able to do the same thing but slower. Also, that monstrously huge SO2 plume that appeared over Iceland about a week after Grimsvotn shut down, did not have the eruption energy to toss it that high, but the Icelandic Low could have enabled the transport.
So… it is possible that lesser eruptions can do the climate trick, but you would have to have several of them to equal Pinatubos one eruption.
By the way… I fully agree with Pieter and Jón’s responses.
Heres that paper for anyone that’s interested.
Remote Sensing
Volcanic contributions to the permanent stratospheric aerosol layer
Jean-Paul Vernier, Larry Thomason, Dave Winker, Chip Trepte and Jean-Pierre Pommereau
http://spie.org/x42472.xml?ArticleID=x42472
Mount Tambora temperature drop was only about 0.7C globally according to some estimates.
http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/volcano.cfm?vnum=0604-04=
Last eruption in Mount Tambora was in the year 1967 +- 20 years.
It is wrong that Mount Tambora was unique. It is not. This happens in nature from time to time and there is actually nothing mysterious about it, even if we don’t fully understand why this happens.
What you have here is just the same old scaremongering along with good old conspiracy mixed into it. Both are equally wrong and equally mistaken about the facts and what is behind them.
Please avoid that here on this blog (I want to stick to the facts as they are known today). Thank you!
@nick
And a “sustained run” to a grand finish. 😉
I miss the sheep, has anyone seen them today???
Good point and no I haven’t, but then I only look every now and then so might have missed them.
Interesting:
http://notendur.hi.is/runa/eyja_gps.html
Small but clear increased inflation in all stations around Katla, started a few weeks ago.
I’m traveling to Iceland for the first time this weekend. Will stay one night in a friends house in Vik. Should I reconsider or maybe take any precautions?
Thanks for a very interresting blog btw!
I don’t think that is necessary. But the thing is nobody knows when Katla volcano might erupt.
It might be tomorrow, but it might also be three years from now. No way to know for sure.
I only react to eruptions after they started. Until then I really don’t worry about it.
Never give up a chance to go to Iceland. Would love to go back. And if something were to happen?………… I can think of worse places to get stuck. 🙂
Detroit?
Ahem – I live in Detroit.
Motor City Madhouse.
(Grin)
It’s okay… I live in L.A. (Lower Alabama. That part of Florida no one thinks about.)
Last weekend there was a cow staring at the Katla-camera which was cool. Then she went down the path.
Those cameras are just a nice way to escape from the routines for a while. Not like staring at them for hours waiting for something to happen 🙂
Well nothing of note is happening, so I might aswell say Katla just had a 1.6, the biggest in awhile, since Tuesday 1 am anyway. Will probably lead to nothing, but heck, I might aswell make a post about it anyway 🙂
Something happening at Múlakvísl. The road has been closed: http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=is&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=is&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ruv.is%2Ffrett%2Fbreytingar-i-mulakvisl
I wonder if the global effects of climate change because of volcano eruptions, if that happens, depend on the position of the volcano, so that a volcano in Iceland could cause more problems in Europe or N-America for example than a volcano in S-America or Asia.
likewise i wonder if there could be effects that could decrease or amplify those changes related to the normal climate change cycle, like ocean temperatures who affect weather considerably.
maybe there is a way to create a forecast to see what climate affect volcanos like Katla or Laki might cause, if any.
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/peteet_x1/
“I wonder if the global effects of climate change because of volcano eruptions, if that happens, depend on the position of the volcano”
The short answer is yes.
The atmosphere is made up of circulation cells, or zones, where the air parcels tend to make a circuit and travel back to near their origin. Broadly, there are the Hadley cells near the tropics, the Mid latitude cells, and the polar cells.
In addition to this, there are semi-permanent features such as the Icelandic Low, the Azores Low, and the Bermuda/Azores high. Then you have the easterlies, the westerlies, (that roughly lie on the cell boundaries) the inter-tropical convergence zone and a myriad of other features that drive the weather. All of this is in the troposphere. and it tends to govern who gets to ground their flights when a volcano erupts.
Above the troposphere, is the stratosphere. Not a lot of movement or circulation goes on here… some does, but not at the levels of tropospheric activity. In the stratosphere, the various gases have time to spread out and assume equilibrium with the other gases, and tend to form layers… or strata. (hence the name). How a volcano predominantly affects climate, is by lofting SO2 (sulfur dioxide) into the stratosphere. Here it can react with other gases and moisture and generate a smog like substance that blocks sunlight. The big variables that affect this, are how much and how high.
The boundary between the stratosphere and troposphere is called the tropopause. It’s elevation changes depending on the prevailing weather, the season, and what latitude it is. When you see a hurricane on a satellite weather image, the tropopause is going the be the feature that flattened out the top of the storm. (and that makes the anvil tops of thunderstorms)
This is an average plot of the troposphere elevation vs latitude (both north and south) and the latitude of a couple of recent news worthy volcanoes. Grimsvotn’s plume went as high as 55kft from what I understand.
http://i52.tinypic.com/k0q0sz.png
Now… what happens to the SO2 after it gets there, and how long it takes for it to get “scrubbed” out of the atmosphere is an area for discussion and conjecture. It’s also the realm of a lot of research.
Another area that has been explored lately, is if lesser strength eruptions can get SO2 up there also, even though they don’t necessarily loft their plumes as high. It’s is looking like that is also a “yes”.
http://spie.org/x42472.xml?ArticleID=x42472
Thank you for your clear and concise explanation – I found it very informative and helpful, indeed.
You know, there’s been quite the little cluster of quakes around the spot where we’ve been seeing those strange clouds on the webcam. A bit south and east of the caldera.