Category: Bárðarbunga

Today (20-May-2016) a magnitude 4,4 earthquake took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is the strongest earthquake so far since the end of the eruption in February-2015. This earthquake swarm also had two magnitude 3,3 earthquakes. Other earthquakes where smaller in magnitude.

The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Iceland Met Office.

Official statement from Iceland Met Office is that they are not sure what is going on. What is clear is that seismic energy being released from Bárðarbunga volcano has increased a lot since end of the eruption in February-2015 and current GPS data suggest rapid inflation. Both of are unusual after caldera collapse like Bárðarbunga volcano experienced in the 2014 – 2015 eruption. Due to lack of historical data it is hard to know for sure what is going on, whatever it is, it’s the first ever that is being monitored in great details.

Current events have not lead to an eruption so far. They however might do so in the future, when is difficult to know since the time frame of this development is unknown, it might be hours, it might be decades. Satellite images also show that cauldrons that have formed at the edge of the caldera are getting deeper and possibly larger, suggesting an increased hydrothermal energy at the locations where they have formed. This suggest that more magma is collecting at depth in the caldera, something as sad above is highly unusual due the recent caldera collapse in the last eruption. I’m expecting more earthquake swarms like this and growing magnitude of the earthquakes that take place. The weekly pattern is going to continue and I suspect it might increase soon, when is impossible to know for sure.

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Shortly after midnight of 8-April-2016 a magnitude 4,2 earthquake took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This earthquake activity was shallow, most depth was around 3 to 5 km. Few earthquakes took place at 7 to 11 km depth, suggesting a magma movement at depth. Nothing suggest that magma reached shallow depth this time around.

The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Iceland Met Office.

The second largest earthquake in this activity had the magnitude of 3,5 at the depth of 4,3 km. Other earthquakes in this swarm where smaller in magnitude at different depths. Magma did not reach the surface in this earthquake swarm, this appears to have been a movement of fault lines do to stress changes at depth due to magma inflow. I’m expecting continued earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano in coming weeks and months.

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Bárðarbunga volcano continues it earthquake activity and it has now been a year since the eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano ended in Holuhraun (article I wrote about it can be found here). This activity (image) took place on 2-March-2016.

The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Green stars are earthquake with magnitude above 3,0. Copyright of this image belongs to Iceland Met Office.

Largest earthquakes in this swarm had the magnitude of 3,1, 3,3 and 3,6. Other earthquakes where smaller in magnitude. The reason for this earthquake swarm seems to be a developing weakness in the north and western part of the caldera. Activity in south part of the caldera seems to be crust adjustment to this weakness (stress changes). The weakest area is long one (I didn’t find information on how large the caldera is, but it is large). This weakness is going to continue to develop until an eruption happens or the magma finds it self a new path and that is more likely than an eruption taking place in the caldera rim, however I cannot rule out an eruption in the caldera at this point. This is all just wait and see situation at the moment. Interesting earthquake also took place in Hamarinn volcano, it had the depth of 13 km and magnitude of 0,7.

Deep earthquakes also took place in Tungnafellsjökull volcano. That earthquake had the magnitude of 0,8 but depth of 17,9 km. Suggesting that some stress changes at depth are taking place. In this case I doubt magma created the earthquake.

If an ash eruptions takes place in Bárðarbunga volcano, the resulting ash fall would be devastating (besides the following glacier flood). Last time larger eruption took place in 1477 half of Iceland got covered in volcano ash (that’s 50% of land), the volcano ash eruption in 1711 covered north Iceland and large parts of east Iceland. In 1711 to 1729 total of nine glacier floods took place and the source of them is believed to be Bárðarbunga volcano. Glacier floods from other volcanoes (Grímsfjall, Kverkfjöll, Þórðarhyrna, Hamarinn) are also highly dangerous. The volcano ash had thickness up to 100 meters next to the eruption area in 1477 (see map in link 1).

Source 1: Hvaða tjón gæti mögulega hlotist af gosi í Bárðarbungu? (Icelandic)
Source 2: Hvað eru mörg gos þekkt í Bárðarbungu og hefur orðið mikið tjón af þeim? (has gravity map of Vatnajökull glacier, Icelandic)