Category: Swarm

On Friday 6th of January 2017 it was noted by one of my readers that a deep earthquake activity had happen in Bárðarbunga volcano, the earthquake in question was a magnitude 1,6 at depth of 25 km. At that depth the only earthquakes that happen are due to magma movement, at that depth the pressure is such tectonic (as explained by Icelandic geologists) earthquakes do not commonly happen at this depth. Today, 8th of January 2017 a magnitude 3,3 earthquake happened in Bárðarbunga volcano at the depth of 7,3 km and the earthquake had the magnitude of 3,5.

The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

The inflation of Bárðarbunga volcano is now at considerable levels, it is not known if or when an next eruption happens. It appears, based on historical data that eruption cycles in Bárðarbunga volcano last for up to 20 years (depending), during such time there is an eruption every few years. At the moment there is also a rifting taking place in this area, making already a complex situation a lot more complex and harder to figure out. Since besides the main volcano, a volcano named Hamarinn can also erupt during this cycles. It has already erupted and did so in July-2011 when it had a 8 – 12 hour long eruption resulting a massive glacier flood, but it did not break the surface of the glacier (Vatnajökull).

Good example of this cycle and repeated eruption pattern can be found in historical data on Global Volcanism Program website (link above).

The last eruption cycle took place in the late 19th century and ended in early 20th century. The following eruptions happened (documented, there is a good chance that some eruption might have been missed due to how remote Bárðarbunga volcano is),

1862 June 30 – 1864 October 15 (error margin +- 45 days). Area of eruption was Tröllagígar.
1872 – Date not know nor eruption site, Dyngjuhals suspected.
1902 December – 1903 June. Eruption site not known, Dyngjuhals also suspected.
1910 June 18 – 1910 October, Loki-Fögrufjöll (East loki Cauldron). This is also known as Hamarinn volcano.

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In 2016 Bárðarbunga volcano kept busy all year with inflating and preparing for the next eruption.

On 31-December-2016 a swarm of earthquake happened in Bárðarbunga volcano, largest earthquake in that swarm had the magnitude of 3,6 and the second largest earthquake had the magnitude of 3,3. On 02-January-2017 few earthquake happened, the largest one having the magnitude of 2,8.

The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

At the moment, the Bárðarbunga volcano continues to inflate at what seems to be a rather fast rate. When that might lead to an eruption is difficult to know. Other more complex factors are also at work here that I don’t know to well and are impossible to figure out.

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This morning a earthquake swarm started in Bárðarbunga volcano. This earthquake swarm started at 03:31 UTC and lasted until 03:35 UTC when a small break happened, the earthquake swarm resumed at 09:35 UTC with two earthquakes. Those two earthquakes had the magnitude of 3,0 and 3,1.

The earthquake swarm in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

On Monday (19-December-2016) a swarm of deep earthquake took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. Suggesting that new magma got injected into the volcano from deep within the mantle (~100 – 200 km depth). This type of pattern has appeared before and it can be expected to happen again.

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During the night of 12-December-2016 a earthquake swarm took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This earthquake activity happens because the volcano is inflating currently after period of deflation during the eruption from August-2014 to Februar-2015. As before, most of earthquake activity happens in the north-east part of the caldera. Why that is the case is not known to me at the moment.

The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

The earthquake swarm lasted for about ~1 hour this time around. Slower and smaller earthquake swarm has been going on for the past ~10 days in Bárðarbunga volcano. I call those “slow earthquake swarm” [not a scientific term], they are more difficult to detect, but they often happen (but I have not yet seen them mentioned in any science papers yet, so this is just my personal view). Largest magnitudes in this earthquake swarm where 3,9 (04:10), 3,8 (04:24), 4,2 (04:29). Other earthquakes where smaller in this swarm.

This earthquake activity is due to the fact that magma is flowing into Bárðarbunga volcano magma chamber at depth (~10 km) and inflating the volcano after it collapsed during the eruption 2014 – 2015. This inflation is faster then anyone expected I suspect, since after the eruption ended in February-2015 it was expected that Bárðarbunga volcano would be quiet for a long time after such large eruption. That has not happened, even if no new eruption has happened so far.

It is not possible to know when next eruption happens or where it is going to happen. Deep earthquakes have been happening under Trölladyngja, suggesting magma movements under that area. Last two eruptions in Trölladyngja took place in the year 5000 BCE and 7100 BCE (GVP information), that means eruption can happen again in this shield volcano (inside Bárðarbunga volcano fissure swarm). There are many other locations that eruptions can happened, at the moment it is expected that possible next eruptions continue to happen north east of Bárðarbunga volcano, close to Holuhraun lava field or in that direction. It is good to remember that if the magma cannot go to the sides, its either going to stay in its place or if the pressure is high enough, it is going to go straight up along the caldera fault line. Hydrothermal activity on the rims of Bárðarbunga volcano caldera suggests that this has already happened and magma now sits at ~1 km depth already. It just didn’t erupt during the last eruption sequence in 2014 – 2015 (it at least has not yet been confirmed).

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