Strong earthquake activity on Kolbeinsey Ridge

Yesterday (27.01.2017) and today (28.01.2017) has seen some strong earthquake activity on Kolbeinsey Ridge. Largest earthquake in this swarm had the magnitude of Mb4,6 according to EMSC (information here). This area, or area close to it possibly had a dike injection or an eruption in the year 1999. That was however never confirmed.


The earthquake swarm on Kolbeinsey Ridge. Green stars show earthquakes with magnitude above 3,0. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.


The Mb4,6 earthquake as it appeared on my geophone in Böðvarshólar. This image is under Creative Commons Licence, please see CC licence website for more information.

There have been around 5 earthquakes with magnitude above 3,0, I don’t know exact numbers of earthquakes with magnitude around and above 3,0. Due the distance of this earthquake swarm from the SIL network it is difficult for Icelandic Met Office to estimate the numbers and magnitudes of the earthquakes that happen. The distance was around 85 km from Kolbeinsey Island and around 160 km from Kolbeinsey Island. It does appear that two earthquake swarm took place in this area for the last 24 hours, but not much else is known at the moment. This activity is currently ongoing at the moment (I think).

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Katla volcano has magnitude 4,3 earthquake

Today (26.01.2017) at 15:14 UTC a magnitude 4,3 earthquake took place in Katla volcano. This earthquake was felt in Vík í Mýrdal (village) and nearby area. A second earthquake with the magnitude of 3,0 took place few moments after the largest earthquake, a magnitude 2,9 earthquake (3rd largest) took place soon after the magnitude 3,0 earthquake. Other earthquakes have been smaller in magnitude (at the moment).


The earthquake in Katla volcano, green star is the magnitude 4,3 earthquake. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.


The magnitude 4,3 earthquake in Katla volcano as it appeared on my geophone in Heklubyggð (distance ~53 km). This image is under Creative Commons licence, please see CC Licence website for more details.

No major change has happened in tremor plots around Katla volcano following this earthquake. Unclear signals on one SIL stations suggest that hydrothermal areas might have gotten exited just before the main earthquake, but that is unconfirmed and unclear if it can be confirmed at all.

This article is going to be updated as new activity happens (if there is a reason to do so).

Update 27.01.2017

Science council of the Civil protection agency in Iceland (Almannavarnir) has issued the following statement. This is a rude translation of that statement since none has been issued in English yet.

Increased risk of eruption in Katla

Earthquake activity in Katla has been unusually high since August 2016, with three earthquakes larger than magnitude 4,0 and many more earthquakes with magnitude 3,0. Earthquake activity is shallow and spread around the caldera. No harmonic tremor has been detected following this earthquake activity. Following this increase in activity small increase in geothermal heat has been observed. GPS station show that small inflation has been taking place since 2010 in the top kilometres of the crust. When activity increases in Katla, as has been the case now, the risk of eruption grows and that has to be considered by the emergency response teams.

(The rest is about Bárðarbunga, just the basic translation of it.)

Since September 2015 Bárðarbunga has been inflating slowly under the caldera. It might be many years until the next eruption, until magma pressure is at the same levels before the eruption started in 2014. It is impossible to exclude new eruptions in next few years. Limited measurements are on geothermal activity in Bárðarbunga, to the best knowledge little has changed in last few months. It is important to monitor geothermal activity due to risk of water collection in the caldera.

My note: Water collection increases the risk of sudden glacier flood from Bárðarbunga.

The news announcement in Icelandic

Fundur í Vísindaráði almannavarna
Auknar líkur á eldgosi í Kötlu (Rúv News)

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Article updated on 27.01.2017 at 18:53 UTC.

Sharp increase in earthquake activity in Katla volcano

In the last 24 hours there has been a sharp increase of earthquakes in Katla volcano. This started yesterday with few minor earthquakes swarms with long quiet period between activity happening. This is what happens when magma is trying to push it self out of a volcano, but doesn’t have the energy to do so just yet. It is not fully understood why most of the earthquakes happen at 0,1 km depth, but it has been theorised (not proven) that Katla volcano is already so hot in the magma tubes that no further earthquakes are possible (for now at least). Details can be found here and here (pdf).


The earthquake activity in Katla volcano during the last 24 hours. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Largest earthquake so far had the magnitude of 3,3. Other earthquakes that have happened are smaller in magnitude at the moment. Current earthquake count is 74 earthquakes, I think that number is going to increase if this earthquake activity continues. I suspect that it is going to do so, there might however be a drop in activity for few hours, days and up to several weeks at the time. Why that happens is something I don’t know. It is also worth noticing that there has been a lot of negative value earthquakes taking place. Those don’t show up on the new Icelandic Met Office website, just the old one.

There is a good chance of conductivity changes in glacier rivers from Mýrdalsjökull glacier. That data can be viewed here, just click on station to view its data. Please note that linking to a station here (in the comment) doesn’t work, I don’t know why that is.

Update 25.01.2017

On 24.01.2017 at 11:13 UTC a magnitude 3,1 earthquake took place in Katla volcano caldera. This earthquake was close to the area where considerable earthquake swarm had taken place. Since then the earthquake activity has quieted down a bit.


The earthquake activity in Katla volcano during the last 24 hours. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Currently there is a quiet in the earthquake activity, since it happens in pulses with drop or no activity between them. The earthquakes that have been happening and I have recorded are hybrid earthquakes (details here). I don’t know if there have been any low frequency earthquakes or very low frequency earthquakes. I expect this earthquake activity to continue.

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Article updated on 25.01.2017 at 04:38 UTC.

Magnitude 3,9 earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano

Today (23.01.2017) an earthquake with magnitude 3,9 took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is the strongest earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano for several weeks now.


Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano are due to inflation of the volcano after the Holuhraun 2014 – 2015 eruption.

Earthquake swarms in Katla volcano

Since Saturday 21 of January 2017 there has been unusual earthquake activity taking place in Katla volcano (for this time of the year). Small earthquake swarms have been scattered all over the caldera, largest earthquakes so far have only reached magnitude of 2,4. Other earthquakes have been smaller in magnitude.


The earthquake activity in Katla volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This earthquake activity is unusual since normally Katla volcano is quiet in January and until June and often until mid-July when earthquake activity starts again. Current activity is unusual since snow has been adding on the glacier since it started snowing in Iceland this winter (November I think it was). Higher areas get snow sooner then lower areas, so it started earlier on Mýrdalsjökull glacier that is on top of Katla volcano. Currently the earthquake activity is ongoing, even if it has slowed down a little for the past few hours.

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Weekly earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano happens

On 19-January-2017 a magnitude 3,5 earthquake happened in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is a normal earthquake activity for Bárðarbunga volcano at the moment and happens just about weekly at the moment.


The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

I don’t expect any activity outside of what has been happening for the last several months.

Magma inflow results in earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano

On Friday 6th of January 2017 it was noted by one of my readers that a deep earthquake activity had happen in Bárðarbunga volcano, the earthquake in question was a magnitude 1,6 at depth of 25 km. At that depth the only earthquakes that happen are due to magma movement, at that depth the pressure is such tectonic (as explained by Icelandic geologists) earthquakes do not commonly happen at this depth. Today, 8th of January 2017 a magnitude 3,3 earthquake happened in Bárðarbunga volcano at the depth of 7,3 km and the earthquake had the magnitude of 3,5.


The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

The inflation of Bárðarbunga volcano is now at considerable levels, it is not known if or when an next eruption happens. It appears, based on historical data that eruption cycles in Bárðarbunga volcano last for up to 20 years (depending), during such time there is an eruption every few years. At the moment there is also a rifting taking place in this area, making already a complex situation a lot more complex and harder to figure out. Since besides the main volcano, a volcano named Hamarinn can also erupt during this cycles. It has already erupted and did so in July-2011 when it had a 8 – 12 hour long eruption resulting a massive glacier flood, but it did not break the surface of the glacier (Vatnajökull).

Good example of this cycle and repeated eruption pattern can be found in historical data on Global Volcanism Program website (link above).

The last eruption cycle took place in the late 19th century and ended in early 20th century. The following eruptions happened (documented, there is a good chance that some eruption might have been missed due to how remote Bárðarbunga volcano is),

1862 June 30 – 1864 October 15 (error margin +- 45 days). Area of eruption was Tröllagígar.
1872 – Date not know nor eruption site, Dyngjuhals suspected.
1902 December – 1903 June. Eruption site not known, Dyngjuhals also suspected.
1910 June 18 – 1910 October, Loki-Fögrufjöll (East loki Cauldron). This is also known as Hamarinn volcano.

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Earthquakes in Bárðarbunga volcano

On the 4th and 6th of January 2017 earthquakes took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. The earthquake on 4th of January had the magnitude of 3,3 (I think) and the earthquake on the 6th of January had the magnitude of 3,5. Both earthquakes where inside the crater of Bárðarbunga volcano, along the fault rims. The reason for this earthquake activity is the inflation of Bárðarbunga volcano, that appears to be rather rapid and mostly steady process. Influx of magma happens in pulses and those pulses are in different size and how long they last.


The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This type of earthquake activity is a regular feature of Bárðarbunga volcano at the moment. I don’t expect that to change any time soon. What might change is the magnitude of the earthquakes happening, I suspect that with time they are going to get more rare but larger in magnitude instead.

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Earthquakes in Katla volcano

On the 5th of January 2017 a magnitude 3,5 earthquake took place in Katla volcano. This earthquake happening in January is extremely rare thing, since Katla volcano is normally quiet this time of the year. That seems to be over for now.


Earthquake activity in Katla volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This earthquake was the strong earthquake in a minor swarm that took place in Katla volcano during that day. Since then the activity has been mostly quiet. Bad weather is however interfering with detection of the earthquakes in most of Iceland, a storm is happening 1 to 2 days at the moment.

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Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano

In 2016 Bárðarbunga volcano kept busy all year with inflating and preparing for the next eruption.

On 31-December-2016 a swarm of earthquake happened in Bárðarbunga volcano, largest earthquake in that swarm had the magnitude of 3,6 and the second largest earthquake had the magnitude of 3,3. On 02-January-2017 few earthquake happened, the largest one having the magnitude of 2,8.


The earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

At the moment, the Bárðarbunga volcano continues to inflate at what seems to be a rather fast rate. When that might lead to an eruption is difficult to know. Other more complex factors are also at work here that I don’t know to well and are impossible to figure out.

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