Since end of February 2023 there have been slowly growing signs in form of a small earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano and nearby area. It is impossible to know when next eruption starts in Fagradalsfjall volcano, but last time the quiet time was around 10 months. If it is going to be shorter or longer now is impossible to know.
Earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
Currently the earthquake activity is minor, but that can change quickly and without much warning. At the writing of this article, its been 6 months and 24 days since the eruption in Meradalir valley ended. I don’t know if this is going to happen the same was as it did before last eruption. Since there’s a lot of magma at depth of 5 to 10 km now and that changes how everything functions and behaves in the crust.
Yesterday (14. March 2023) at 20:43 UTC an magnitude Mw3,0 earthquake took place in Askja volcano. This is just one of smaller earthquakes in Askja volcano. There have been almost no earthquake activity following the inflation in Askja volcano in recent months. Suggesting to me (this is my personal opinion) that this inflation is not going to result in a eruption. Deflation might start in few months or years time, if it starts at all. Why this happens the way it does is unknown to me.
Earthquake activity in Askja volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
It is my personal view that earthquake activity in Askja volcano is going remain low and even vanish for a time. I don’t think anything is going to happen this time around. I am however known to get this wrong, because nobody can be sure what happens next in a volcano.
This morning (11. March 2023) at 07:02 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,1 took place in western part of Katla volcano. This earthquake happened in Katla volcano caldera rim. The depth was 1,1 km. This was a single earthquake, at the writing of this article.
Earthquake activity in Katla volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
Since this earthquake there has not been any new earthquake activity in Katla volcano. I am not sure why that is, but it there’s a chance this earthquake activity might just be over. There has been a lot of frost quakes in last few hours, because of a cold weather happening in Iceland. With freezing going down to -20C in some areas.
Yesterday (9. March 2023) and today (10. March 2023) an earthquake swarm has been east of Grímsey island. Largest earthquake in this swarm had a magnitude of Mw3,8. There have been around 40 to 60 earthquakes in this swarm. Making this earthquake swarm rather small, compared to many other earthquake swarm that have been at this same location.
Earthquake activity east of Grímsey island. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
This earthquake swarm seems to be ongoing at of the writing of this article. It is impossible to know for sure if an stronger earthquake is going to happen in this area.
Today (9. March 2023) an earthquake swarm started in Katla volcano. This earthquake swarm is ongoing and information in this article can go outdated quickly. Largest earthquakes at the writing of this article have a magnitude of Mw3,3 and Mw3,4. A swarm of smaller earthquakes is ongoing.
Earthquake activity in Katla volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
It is difficult to know for sure what is going on in Katla volcano. But this activity reminds me of what happened few years ago before an small eruption took place in Katla volcano. If that is going to happen now I don’t know. I’ll post information when I know more and if anything more happens in Katla volcano.
Yesterday (5. March 2023) at 18:00 UTC an earthquake with magnitude Mw3,4 took place north of Herðubreið mountain. This is a small earthquake swarm and is part of an ongoing earthquake swarm in this area that has been going on since October 2022 (or in around that month).
Earthquake activity north of Herðubreið mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
Depth of this earthquake was only 4,2 km and earthquake activity in this area has been getting shallower with time. If this is magma, then there’s not a lot of it at this depth. Earthquake activity is small compared to the earthquake swarms that happen just before an eruption. It is clear that, if this is magma, it is not pushing its way up the surface at this point in time.
Since May 2011 there has been an earthquake activity in mountain called Saftafellsfjöll. This is slightly north of Öræfajökull volcano and south of Grímsfjall volcano. This earthquake activity is now permanent in this area it seems. Some of it might be glacier quakes, but most of the earthquake activity there is not, because of the depth this earthquake activity is happening at.
Earthquake activity in Skaftafellsfjöll mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.Earthquake activity in Skaftafellsfjöll mountain for 365 days. Picture is from Skjálftalísa on Icelandic Met Office website. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
I don’t know for sure what is going on. This earthquake activity clearly shows that something is going on in this part of Vatnajökull glacier. It is my unverified opinion that there is a volcano there. Its not documented and map only show a extinct volcano in this area. This is unlikely to be earthquake activity in extinct volcano, its not impossible, what makes this unlikely is that this earthquake activity happens regularly and has been going on since May 2011. There is ice quake activity in this same area, but some of this earthquake activity is both deep and being located in areas with no glacier. If those are not measuring errors or something like that (I find that unlikely in many cases). I don’t think there’s going to be an eruption in this area, at least not for a long time if it ever happens. This earthquake activity might have been going on for a lot longer then from May 2011.
– This is not an registered or confirmed volcano in this area. Unless there’s an eruption, it might be a long time until a confirmation happens.
Yesterday (26. February 2023) and today (27. February 2023) there was an earthquake activity in Katla volcano. This is mostly normal activity in Katla volcano and no signs of an eruption or that an eruption is about to start. Largest earthquake in this swarm had a magnitude of Mw3,2. I don’t know if it was felt in nearby area.
Earthquake activity in Katla volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
There is no change in harmonic tremors or other activity in Katla volcano. That means this is just an earthquake activity and there is no sign that an eruption is about to happen.
Rúv News is reporting that people in eastern Iceland should look up information on how to deal with possible volcano ash from Askja volcano. This is an general advice to people in eastern Iceland because of possible eruption in Askja volcano, that can start without any warning or little warning. There is some risk of eruption in Askja volcano that might create an ash cloud, but there is also a chance that if Askja volcano erupts that the eruption is going to be a lava flow eruption, close to what happened in Bárðarbunga volcano in 2014 to 2015 eruption.
There is a possibility that the eruption from Askja volcano is going to go south, into the new Holuhraun lava field and craters after the Bárðarbunga volcano eruption of 2014 to 2015. There has been some earthquake activity in that area in recent weeks and there might be a weakness in the crust at that location that was not sealed during last eruption. What happens is only going to be clear once an eruption starts and until then its all just speculation.
Icelandic News about Askja volcano
Today (21. February 2023) an earthquake swarm started close to Geirfugladrangur on Reykjanes ridge. This is possibly in another volcano than Reykjanes volcano that is just east of this location, this is because of distance and its unlikely that Reykjanes volcano extends this far south. It has no other name than Geirfugladrangur. Largest earthquake in this swarm had a magnitude of Mw3,1 and this earthquake swarm is ongoing and stronger earthquakes are a possibility.
Earthquake swarm on Reykjanes ridge. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
This earthquake pattern seems to indicate that a magma dyke intrusion is taking place. This area of the Reykjanes ridge last erupted in 16th to 18th century and has been quiet since.
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