This is going to be a really short article. Because an eruption might be about to start. Difficult to be sure, but there’s a chance. Eruption has not started at the writing of this article.
Largest earthquake in the last 24 hours seems to be a magnitude Mw4,3. I no longer can keep up with all this earthquake activity.
Inflation in area close to Keilir has reached 200mm (20cm) in less than 48 hours when this started.
Inflow of magma is estimated to be 88m3/s and that is a lot of magma moving and moving fast.
Heavy earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
It is unclear where the eruption is going to happen. But there has been a drop in earthquake activity that strongly suggest that magma is close to finding a path to the surface. According to measurements, the magma is now less than 1 km away from the surface.
This is a short update since there is a lot going on.
Largest earthquake recorded at the writing of this article is Mw4,8 from earlier this morning.
Larger earthquakes are growing in numbers. There is now also a warning for possible Mw6,3 earthquake on Reykjanes peninsula following this earthquake swarm and dyke intrusion into Fagradalsfjall mountain.
The dyke intrusion is coming up just south of Keilir mountain.
Based on what I am seeing, it is possible that current dyke intrusion into Fagradalsfjall mountain is larger than the first eruption in March 2021. If this is accurate is a wait and see situation until an eruption starts.
It is possible to view the earthquake activity in real time here, at Raspberry Shake website.
Heavy earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
All data now suggest that an eruption is going to happen. Where it is going to start erupting is impossible to know and it is not possible to know when it is going to start erupting.
I’ll try to post update when more is known about what is going on.
This is a short update since this situation is changing quickly.
Largest earthquake recorded so far had a magnitude of Mw4,8 and was felt over a wide area.
Uncertainty level has been declared for Fagradalsfjall mountain area because of this earthquake activity and the risk of an eruption.
Current depth of the magma is now 3 to 6 km and is getting shallower by each hour.
Over 2000 earthquakes have been recorded at the writing of this article.
Earthquake swarm activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
The only web camera that I know of at the moment and is showing Fagradalsfjall mountain is this one here. When the eruption starts, it should be visible in some part on this web camera. I hope that other closer web cameras are going online soon. Those where run by Rúv and mbl.is in last eruption.
This is a tricky thing to write about. Because nothing has started on the surface and might not start on the surface. It seems that something is going on in Grímsfjall volcano. Since the glacier flood is almost over or has finished the harmonic tremor level should have started dropping, it has not done so and I am not sure why that is. This might be boiling of the hydrothermal systems in Grímsfjall volcano when the pressure on the suddenly drops. Currently the harmonic tremor doesn’t look like it has reached eruption levels, that might change without warning.
Harmonic tremor in Grímsfjall volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.Earthquake activity in Grímsfjall volcano. This is almost no earthquake activity. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
It is difficult to know what is going on. Since there seems to have been a change in Grímsfjall volcano after the big eruption in May 2011. What that change is I don’t know. It seems to have slowed down Grímsfjall volcano eruption rate from what it was, its been 11 years since last eruption. It might continue if no eruption starts now following the small glacier flood that just ended.
It has been reported in the news today (18-August-2022) at Rúv that more pulse activity has been seen. This results in lava being thrown up high in the air.
This is the same pattern as happened last year in the eruption in Geldingadalir valley. It took a while for that eruption to end and that might also be the case now.
Other than this, there have not been any other news of the eruption. There also has been interesting events out in the lava field, where the new lava is compressing the lava from 2021, resulting it being squeezed out at the edges. Since there is still flowing lava in the lava field from 2021 and that is going to be like that for many decades until this lava field cools through.
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This morning on (13-August-2022) at 06:30 to 08:00 UTC there was a sharp drop in harmonic tremor activity in the eruption in Meradalir valley. What happened is unclear, since no change has so far happened on the surface. From the looks of the harmonic tremor now, it seems that it is unstable currently.
Harmonic tremor plot in Fagradalsfjall mountain, SIL station Fagradalsfjall (faf). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
New fissures might be about to open up, this can happen both north and south of current eruption. New fissures might also open up on either side of current eruption if that is a path that the magma can take. What happens is unclear and it is impossible to know when that might happen. Depending on the were next eruption happens, might mean a lot when it comes to possible lava paths and possible road damage if lava flows over a important road on Reykjanes peninsula.
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This is a short update on the eruption in Fagradalsfjall mountain in Merdalir valley. As expected there is not a lot of news in this eruption, since lava type of eruptions are normally not news heavy eruptions.
The amount of lava that is now erupting according to latest news is about 15m3/sec. This is higher than the eruption in Geldingadalir in 2021.
The lava seems to have filled up the valley the eruption started in. The floor seems to be about 10 to 30 meters high depending on location.
The crater has formed to some extend. The lava lake that remains there blocks the formation of a normal crater for now. This might change with time as the eruption continues.
Lava flow go both in south and north direction. The north lava flow goes into a smaller valley that was there. This is the long way out of the valley for now.
There is a risk that the lava flow is going to reach road 427 (Suðurstrandavegur) in few weeks time.
The risk of new eruption sites opening up remains high and that risk increases as the eruption goes on.
There is a swarm of small earthquakes that has been happening regularly since the start of the eruption in the dyke. It is unclear why that is happening.
I’ve been seeing what appears to be a lava fountain taking place in the eruption in the last few hours. This has not yet been confirmed, I have however observed this on the web cameras.
I think this is all. I hope the next update is going to be on Friday 19th August 2022 unless something major happens.
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This is a short update because not much has changed in the last 24 hours in the eruption in Meradalir valley in Fagradalsfjall mountain.
The eruption is now in 120 meter long eruption fissure. Currently the output of the eruption is around 18 m3/sec according to yesterday’s measurements.
The new lava has now flowed over the lava from last year (2021) and into eastern Meradalir. This is about 1 km distance that river of lava has flowed. Image of that can be found here on Facebook.
According to chemical analyse of the magma. This is the same magma that was erupting when the eruption in the older crater stopped erupting in September. This shows that this magma is older and the new magma has not yet reached the surface.
Fissures on the ground north-east of the eruption site have started to move and getting wider according to experts that are in the area. This strongly suggests that an eruption is about to happen soon in that location. When it starts is impossible to know. But this is going to close one way to the eruption and if eruption starts in new location south of the crater, seeing and viewing this eruption might start to get difficult or impossible, at least the part in Meradalir were the current eruption is happening now.
I think that is all for this Friday. Next update is going to be on Friday 12-August unless something major happens in this eruption and that might just happen.
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Today (03-August-2022) at around 13:30 UTC an eruption started in Fagradalsfjall mountain, just north of the eruption site that took place in March to September 2021. The fissure that is now erupting is growing both to south and north. That suggest that the power of the eruption is currently growing.
This is all the information I have at the moment. This eruption is clearly visible on the web cameras that mbl.is has on YouTube, along with web camera from Rúv.
I’ll post new information when I get them. I don’t know when that is going to be.
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Update 1
Based on this image from Morgunblaðið web camera. The eruption started at 13:16 UTC.
Image from Morgunblaðið web camera when the magma breaks the crust and starts the eruption. Copyright of this image belongs to Morgunblaðið/YouTube screenshot. – This image might be removed if requested.
This is a short article because the situation changes constantly.
This was not a night where many people in Reykjavík got a good night sleep. A magnitude Mw5,0 earthquake took place at 02:27 UTC and was felt in Reykjavík, few seconds earlier a magnitude Mw4,7 earthquake took place. Earlier three earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw4,3 to Mw4,5 had taken place, this was just around midnight and was also felt in Reykjavík. Over 10 000 earthquakes have been recorded since Saturday when this all started. The earthquake activity during the night was at the western end of Kleifarvatn lake and was for that reason felt clearly in Reykjavík. Minor damage was reported with the earthquake around midnight. Other reports of damage have not been reported so far.
Heavy earthquake activity on Reykjanes peninsula. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
The strong earthquakes during the night where fault earthquakes, that happen because of the inflation that is now taking place north of Fagradalsfjall mountain. GPS data has also been showing a interesting patter. There is now a deflation taking place in Gónhóll and the crater, while that area also seems to be on the move north (?). The 24 GPS data can be viewed here and 8 hours GPS data can be viewed here.
This earthquake activity is going to continue until an eruption starts. When that happens is impossible to know. More stronger earthquakes can be expected in next few hours and days on Reykjanes peninsula.
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Please remember to support my work. That stops me from being broke and I don’t need many donations to stop being broke. Thanks for the support. 🙂
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