Icelandic Rúv broadcaster reports that a few volcanoes in Iceland are ready to start erupting at any time with little warning. The volcanoes on top of the list are the volcanoes Grímsvötn (Grímsfjall) and Hekla. According to this news they are expecting that a Grímsvötn are going to erupt sometimes in the coming winter. In this news they also say that there are 35 active (dormant) volcanoes that can erupt at any time in Iceland. But some volcanoes are more ready then others to start erupting.
The news can be found here in Icelandic (Windows Media Player required to view the video).
Interesting information. This can be an interesting winter.
I agree… but doing at a bit of extrapolation on a SIL plot, you have to wonder how much is an excited reporter and how much is a pragmatic view of the data.
The moment tensor seems due to get within 10% of the 2004 event sometime in April of next year. Though it is likely that will do a quick run up when it finally decides to go, much like it did in the 440 days prior to it’s last eruption.
http://i54.tinypic.com/25018gl.png
Oops, forgot the original SIL moment tensor plot:
http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/vatnajokulsvoktun/grf_uppsafn.html
Lurking, is the cumulative moment tesnsor any more predictive than the cumulative intensity of earthquakes? ( Intensity not not magnitude, since it makes no sense to add logarithmic-scaled “magnitudes”.)
I can’t really answer that. Natch an increase in intensity will hasten the accumulation of “energy dissipated”.
See, I am not very clear on how this data is put together. Accumulation of strain? Accumulation of quake events? (I’m leaning towards this one) If it’s the latter, then the plot is simply a graph of how much seismic energy has been expended in a given location. In this case, around Grímsvötn. It’s less of a predictive tool than a comparison of the eruption lead-in events. Grímsvötn will erupt, eventually. My annotation of a 90% line is just an arbitrary reference point.
When will it erupt? When it’s ready.
It could have a swarm that jacks that energy accumulation to the moon or it could settle down and do nothing. There could even be another “fires” event between Bárðarbunga and Askja based on the orientation of the quakes that have been going on and the appearance of seemingly unnoticed cracks that have been noted around “goose lake” that are supposed to be from the previous eruption… though no one apparently noticed them until recently.
Big ‘Ole Fat Caveat: I’m not a geologist.
Congrats on your blog Jón, and thanks for this heads-up! Do you know which the other volcanoes are?
@Henrik, Thanks. The other volcanoes would be Katla, Askja and so on. All of the active volcanoes in Iceland can erupt at any time. But for the time being most of them are dormant.
That is beside Eyjafjallajökull, but it still considered active but not erupting.
@ Jon…First of all I would like to congratulate you for a good blog. Secondly i have a question…..What are the risks that there will be another Skaftar Fires even within the next 100 years?
So their list would include both Hofsjökull and Öræfajökull (both of which you were worried about), Tindfjallajökull, Torfajökull, Snæfellsjökull et.c? That can erupt “at any time”?
Good to see a nice white cap on Eyjafjallajökull again. 🙂
@Daniel_Swe, Thanks! I don’t think there is any way to predict something like that. But a new fissure eruption is going to happen there one day. But it is impossible to know when that happens.
Funny cloud hovering Hekla’s peak. Couldn’t be any steaming, could it?
@Renato Rio, No it just a clould and nothing more.
ok,,,,,,,,,, this is a really stupid question…. how are the little avatars distributed?
because mine looks like a purple circle with large round glasses to me ………. i see Jon’s as an 8 pointed star and Rio’s as a diamond in a square……….. Why do i ask? Because i’m a little old fat lady with big round glasses……… my avatar looks like me! i think it’s the nicest avatar ……….:)
Best!motsfo
Jon, a silly question – did you choose our avatars or were they randomly generated? Imo they seem to match each posters’ personality quite well… 😉
@Henrik & motsfo, The WordPress blog randomly chooses them. I don’t know how they do it. It is just a feature of the blog that I dedicated to enable.
In some cases it is going to show a picture, not avatar. This happens if you have a blog or something else that WordPress can use for a avatar. I am not exactly sure how it works.
And I got no face, because WordPress knows me. That’s not nice. So I have to write faceless… 🙁
Diana Germany, You got a picture of the sun as your avatar. 🙂
@ Jón: Yes. -) It’s my own picture. I took it in Hawaii 2008. Sunset in Waikiki Beach near the volcano (!) Diamond Head. 🙂
@ Jón: You can upload such a picture as your Avatar at your WordPress Dashboard at „options-general“. (I hope it’s right explained. In German it’s called “Einstellungen”) There you can upload a picture that you want as the Avatar of your Blog. I choose this hawaiian sun as Icon for my Blog and did not know that it will follow me. 🙂
@Diana Germany, I don’t appear to have that option. But I possibly can add it. But that is going to have to wait for later.
I am currently looking for a way to change the header image to the one of Eyjafjallajökull (found at Wikipedia) to make as this header blog image.
@ Jón: Have you read this and could it help? http://en.support.wordpress.com/themes/custom-header-image/
I am sure you understand it better as me. I don’t find a German version of it.
@Mots Fo, @Henrik: I like my “diamond head” as Mots Fo describes it. As for “they seem to match each posters’ personality quite well…”, hey, Henrik, do I look “angry” to you? 🙂 Thanks for the opportunity you give us to be here, Jón. Looking forward to more news from Icelandic volcanoes.
@Diana Germany, Thanks for that! I didn’t even know that WordPress was able to do this! I am always learning something new.
I think this header image looks great. 🙂
@Renato Rio, According to WordPress, the images are based on your email address. But I don’t know anything more then what it says in the WordPress it self.
Reanto, no. Yours looks as if it’s trying to catch hold of several ideas at the same time whereas mine seems to have ingested something that didn’t agree with it (erm… it does take me a while to get my head completely round scientific papers).
@Jón: It really looks great! Congratulations. I have no volcano Blog, so I choose the Sun. 🙂
@Renato: Henrik is right. It looks very thoughtful and concentrated. Like a volcano profesor! 🙂 My “diamond head” is hidden behind the sun. 😉
Love you guys!
@Jón: Great image. Til hamingju!
Nice to see you doing your bit for Icelandic tourism Jón. Can never be too many ‘safe’ eruptions. 🙂
I admire the confidence of those making predictions. There certainly seems to be much rumbling inflating spreading and shrinking going on.
As substantiate as the historical record claims to be, every other or so Icelandic eruption is full surprise. Maybe we will see something new?
Nice start to the blog sir.