Month: October 2023

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Magma movement close to Þorbjörn mountain this morning

Today (31. October 2023) at around 08:00 UTC an magma movement was detected by Icelandic Met Office. This started an earthquake swarm that had a largest earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,7. The magma seems to be at depth of 1,5 km where it is the shallowest. Few days ago, that magma was at depth of 5 to 8 km. This change is rather quick movement of magma, that suggests higher pressure compared the magma that erupted in Fagradalsfjall volcano. This might result in a larger eruption when it happens. The inflation at Fagradalsfjall volcano, south part of it has not lowered. The only thing that has happened there is that earthquake activity has dropped to almost nothing. Earthquake activity has moved to western part of Fagradalsfjall volcano. Eruption also happening in Fagradalsfjall volcano should not be ruled out, but the events close to Þorbjörn mountain might delay the progress of that magma.

Red dots and green stars north of Grindavík town, close to Þorbjörn mountain. There's also red dots west of Þorbjörn mountain and Grindavík town. Blue dots close to Reykjanestá on this map. Time on map is 31. Okt. 23 at 16:55 UTC.
Earthquake activity because of magma movements in Reykjanes volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

It is difficult to know what is going to happen next. But an eruption is highly likely, when and where is almost impossible to know even if GPS data gives good clues on where it might happen. This situation is complex and it is uncertain what is going to happen next with this activity in Reykjanes volcano and Fagradalsfjall volcano.

I’ll post information soon as I know something. A list of web cameras of Icelandic volcanoes can be found on the YouTube page that I set up a while ago.

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Reykjanes volcano placed on Yellow warning level

The Reykjanes volcano has been placed on yellow warning level. This is because of sudden inflation that is now taking place north-west of Þorbjörn mountain. In slightly less than 24 hours the inflation did reach 30mm. This is the fifth time (as reported by Morgunblaðið) that inflation has happened in this area since the year 2020. This inflation now is a lot faster than earlier when this has happened.

Yellow triangle on the Reykjanes volcano on the Reykjanes peninsula. Other triangles, showing other volcanoes in Iceland are green.
The alert status for Reykjanes volcano is now yellow. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This inflation in the Reykjanes volcano has the risk of creating stronger earthquakes in new locations on the Reykjanes peninsula and on the Reykjanes ridge in next few days to weeks. There is a ongoing inflation in Fagradalsfjall volcano and that has not stopped or slowed down since it started on 25. October 2023. It is not possible to know when or if an eruption in going to start in Reykjanes volcano, but how quickly this inflation is happening suggests that might happen. The location is not that good, if it erupts where the inflation is happening. The blue lagoon is nearby along with power plant and hot water energy plant in this area. Eruption in this location can result in major damage to infrastructure in this area.

Only thing that can be done now is to wait and monitor what is happening in this area.

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New earthquake swarm in Fagradalsfjall volcano and in Þorbjörn mountain (Reykjanes volcano)

This article is going to get outdated quickly.

Current activity is also complicated and might not behave in the same way as earlier eruptions did. Largest earthquakes at writing of this article have had magnitude of Mw3,5 and Mw4,5. Larger earthquakes can be expected without warning. There have been around 1000 smaller earthquakes at the writing of this article.

Green stars close to Þorbjörn mountain and a lot of red dots in south part of Fagradalsfjall volcano. There is also green to west of Þorbjörn mountain.
Earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano and Þorbjörn mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

There is a good chance this events are not going to behave the same way as happened in earlier eruptions, because the location is little bit difference and that can result in a lot of change on what happens when magma pushes it self up through the crust. The earthquake activity close to Þorbjörn might be a mixed earthquake activity of tension breaking earthquakes and magma pushing it self up. GPS data doesn’t show any inflation close to Þorbjörn mountain at the writing of this article.

Earthquake activity is increasing in south part of Fagradalsfjall volcano, this is area in Nátthagi, Nátthagakriki and other nearby area. There is a dyke intrusion in that area and has been a while. That dyke intrusion might be about to erupt. There is a lot of uncertainty going on at the writing of this article. There is also a pattern of high and low in the earthquake activity, this has been the pattern in the earthquake activity before the earlier eruptions.

I’ll write updates about this activity as needed. It might take a while, since I always try to figure out what is going on before an article is written.

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Magnitude Mw4,9 earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano yesterday (24. October 2023)

Yesterday (24. October 2023) at 22:19 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw4,9 took place in Bárðarbunga volcano north eastern part of the volcano. This time it was not in the caldera as is the most common location for this earthquake activity.

Green star in Bárðarbunga volcano, in Vatnajökull glacier. This green star is located slightly to the north east of the main crater of Bárðarbunga volcano. Few yellow dots are around the green star, showing smaller earthquakes.
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This is a inflation connected earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is the second earthquake this year that reaches magnitude of Mw4,9. There is no risk for an eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano at current time.

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Earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano

Yesterday (14. October 2023) an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,6 took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is one of many inflation earthquakes that have taken place in Bárðarbunga volcano since end of the eruption in 2015. This earthquake activity is going to continue for the next 50 to 100 years if nothing changes, but with rate of earthquakes getting lower as the time passes.

Green star in Bárðarbunga volcano, in the northern part of the volcano.
The activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This earthquake activity is normal and won’t result in a eruption. This type of earthquake or larger happen currently every two to three months in Bárðarbunga volcano.

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Next eruption in Fagradalsfjall volcano might happen at Christmas or sooner

Icelandic Met Office reported today (14. October 2023) that an new eruption in Fagradalsfjall volcano or nearby is now expected to happen before or close to Christmas. After the end of the eruption on 6th August 2023 the inflation that has been happening is now faster then before earlier eruptions. At the writing of this article, an earthquake with magnitude of Mw2,7 took place north of Grindavík town and was felt in Grindavík.

A lot of of red dots showing new earthquakes north of Grindavík town and in Fagradalsfjall volcano. This are small earthquakes and often happen before an eruption starts.
Earthquake activity north of Grindavík town and in Fagradalsfjall volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

In the last two eruptions, after the first eruption ended. There have been around ten months between eruption. That does not seem to be the case now. Since it seems that next eruption is going to happen at four to six months time. A half or close to it from when the last eruption took place. This situation is dangerous, because this means that an eruption can start without much warning and not a lot of earthquake activity. Icelandic Met Office advice is that people travel around and in Fagradalsfjall volcano carefully.

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Closing down the email postlist

For the last few years I’ve been running a basic email postlist that seeks out new articles from this website few hours after I post them. Because of changes from mailchimp that I’ve been using I’ve made the chose to close down the postlist from next Saturday. I recommend that people find a RSS client to get updates when I post new articles about earthquake and volcano activity in Iceland.

Update 14th October

I have now closed down the email poslist and deleted my mailchimp account (that I had been using since 2013). I only used the free version of the email since that was the only thing I needed. If I ever create a new email postlist. It has to be a solution that I can run my self. If that happens is I don’t know yet. Since technical solutions can be difficult when it comes to email subscription lists.

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Two earthquakes connected to Fagradalsfjall volcano

Today (5. October 2023) two earthquakes took place that are connected to Fagradalsfjall volcano inflation. The first one was a magnitude Mw3,3 in Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano. This was a tectonic earthquake because of inflation in Fagradalsfjall volcano. The second earthquake was north of Grindavík town and had a magnitude of Mw3,2. That earthquake was part of an earthquake swarm and dyke intrusion in that area. That area north of Grindavík town has been seeing a lot of earthquake activity in recent weeks, all connected to dyke intrusion activity.

Two green stars on Reykjanes peninsula that are connected to inflation in Fagradalsfjall volcano.
Two green stars on Reykjanes peninsula. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

The increase in activity in recent weeks strongly suggests that an eruption is going to happen soon. When is impossible to know and earthquake activity is too low at the writing of this article for an eruption to be happening today. This might change without warning, as has happened in the last two eruptions. There is a possibility that something has changed after the last eruption, but the answer to that question won’t happen until next eruption. All that can be done now is to wait and see what happens.

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Strong earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano

Today (4. October 2023) at 16:11 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw4,7 (Icelandic Met Office) or Mw5,0 (EMSC) took place in Bárðarbunga volcano.

Green star and red dots in Bárðarbunga volcano that is located north-west in Vatnajökull glacier.
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This is normal inflation earthquake in Bárðarbunga volcano and large earthquakes like this happen every few months. This means that Bárðarbunga volcano continues to inflate after the eruption in 2014 to 2015. This earthquake activity is not going to result in a eruption and won’t result in a eruption for a long time.