Harmonic tremors – Page 14

September 8, 2014September 8, 2014

Update for Bárðarbunga volcano eruption at 17:59 UTC

This information is going to get outdated quickly.

Current status on Báðarbunga volcano eruption

Eruption continues in Holuhraun. Most of the craters have stopped erupting for now. The main craters continue to erupt.
It is my view that eruption under the glacier is imminent. That eruption would take place close to the location of today magnitude 4,5 and 3,0 took place today. When it might start is impossible to know.
Earthquake activity continues in Bárðarbunga volcano. With largest earthquakes today having magnitude 5,0. Most of the earthquake take place on the caldera rim, since the caldera is sinking into the crust. More on this below [1].
The lava field is now going into Jökulsá á Fjöllum. It is currently crossing the glacier river and creating a dam in the process. Only steam has been seen in this process.
Risk of eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano slopes is extremely high. There has not been any eruption in Báðarbunga volcano slopes since 23-August-2014.
GPS instruments have now be installed on top of Bárðarbunga volcano today. This is to measure exactly what is going on inside the volcano.
There is less blue haze today. There is concern that it is going to have effect on people, animals and plants if the blue haze stays for long time in any given area. Acid rain is a big concern at the moment. The SO2 levels in eastern Iceland have been the highest since measurements started in Iceland back in 1970.
There is high concentration of gas in the lava around the eruption site. It is in fact so high that it has put the geologist that are working there at great risk. Due the local weather the lava field is creating [2].

The caldera issue in Bárðarbunga volcano [1]

The caldera in Bárðarbunga volcano is dropping and it is dropping fast. According to latest news from Rúv (see link below) the caldera is dropping up to 90 cm/day. That is a huge drop for a mountain. There is also clue that central part of the caldera floor is now so soft that it no longer breaks and creates earthquakes, it is just buckling under the strain. This increases the risk of eruption in the central caldera up to almost certainty levels (for me that is 96+% chance of happening). The latest news from Rúv tell that the thickness of the glacier in the central part of the glacier is up to 850 meters thick. Since last Saturday the caldera has dropped 2 – 3 meters, meaning that current drop is now around 18,5 meters.

There is also high risk of eruptions in the slopes of Bárðarbunga volcano. None have taken place since 23-August-2014. It is not clear why that is. Some ideas say that it might be due to pressure release of the dyke eruption that is now taking place. I am now not personally convinced that is the case. The reason for lack of eruption must be some other. I don’t know what that reason is yet and I don’t think anyone knows at current time.

Local weather around the lava field [2]

The lava field has been creating a lot of it’s own weather. So much that is creating hazardous working environment for the geologist working close the lava field and the eruption site.

The local weather has also created small localized tornadoes. I spotted this one earlier today.

It is difficult to see the tornado on this picture. But it is the white line across the image. Image taken at 15:27 UTC on 8-September-2014. Screen-shot of Míla web-camera.

This local weather is not going anywhere while the heat is at the levels as it is now. It might even last for months after this eruption finishes.

News bits in Icelandic and English

Continuing subsidence in Bardarbunga (Rúv.is)
Askjan í Bárðarbungu sigið um 2,5 til 3 m (Rúv.is, Icelandic)
Eitt stærsta hraungosið frá því á 19. öld (Rúv.is, Icelandic)

Updates 08-September-2014

According to latests news on Rúv this is now the largest lava eruption since 19th century in Iceland. The eruption in Holuhraun is now many times larger than largest eruption in Krafla volcano during its 10 year eruption period.

Note on comments

In order to keep things running smooth on this website. Please just post links to images. Along with some text about what they are. That also prevents the ant-spam system false flag it and me from regarding links as spam. I also have to ask people how copy data from Icelandic Met Office and University of Iceland to provide a link to the source. This is disclaimer that they added in recent weeks. I want to be on the right side of this government organizations. I also want to prevent that I have to remove comments due there demands.

Article updated on 08-September-2014 at 18:50 UTC.

September 5, 2014September 7, 2014

Eruption update at 21:29 UTC

This information is going to go outdated quickly.

This is the current information about the eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano.

Please note: Since I cannot go to the area that is erupting my self (it is closed and I also live in Denmark at the moment). I have to relay on what is being told in the news and released by Icelandic Met Office along with other data. This means that I spend most of the day collecting data and working out what is going on (my view in most cases). This means that in most cases I write post late in the day when daily observation is done.

Current status of the eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano

New fissure did open around 2 – 3 km south of the eruption fissure that started erupting 31-August-2014.
Comments on this website did notice the eruption around 04:00 UTC on 05-September-2014. At the same time there was an minor increase in harmonic tremor on SIL stations close to the eruption.
The new eruption fissure is around 1 – 2 km long. It might get longer as time passes.
The new eruption was first reported by the press around 06:00 – 08:00 on Rúv.
New cauldron has formed some 6 km in Dyngjujökull glacier. The glacier in the that area is 300 to 350 meters thick. Last report was that this cauldron was getting deeper during the day.
Higher conductivity has been reported in Jökulsá á fjöllum glacier river. That is currently continuing on that last check I did on Icelandic Met Office website.
Smell of rotten eggs is now coming from Jökulsá á fjöllum. Normally there is no such smell of that glacier river.
Inflation in the dyke continues, not on the same speed as before, but it is ongoing.
The rift valley appears to continue expand were he is visible.
The air around the eruption site is toxic due to release of SO2, CO, CO2, fluorine gases and other dangerous gases.
The water vapour cloud goes up to 4,5 km according to latest measurements.
The SO2 goes the way of the wind direction at any given time.
The lava field has just 1 km to Jökulsá á fjöllum glacier river. Once the lava enters the river it might start to build a dam and the lava is going to explode and steam a lot in the process.
Largest earthquake since midnight was magnitude 5,3 that took place at 01:19 UTC. It took place in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera rim. As other large earthquakes since this events started.
Largest earthquake in the dyke area took place at 14:31 UTC and had the magnitude of 3,2. It was under the glacier were most earthquake activity is now taking place.
Volcano eruption with ash cloud is now expected to take place. When and exactly where it is going to take place is not known at current time. I don’t think it going to have effects on international flight. But the local effects might be big if wind is in the direction of populated areas of Iceland.

GPS inflation

GPS measurements of the inflation that is currently taking place in the dyke. More GPS data can be found here. Copyright of this image belongs to University of Iceland.

Magma continues to flow into the dyke. It is at slower rates than before, but it still flowing into the dyke at rates that current eruption is not powerful enough to equal or drop the pressure inside the dyke. This is going to result in more eruptions as we have already started to see. When and where they are going to take place is something that is not known.

The eruption area is closed to the public

Due to risk of dangerous gases and flood the eruption area is closed to the public. Anyone that is found within the closed zone is going to get heavy fine. Going to this area is also extremely risky sine the area that is now eruption is extremely unstable with the risk of new eruption opening up without warning in the fault area and even outside it (if there is a weakness in the crust the magma is going to go that way). Police in Iceland have already spotted and fined two cars that were trying to enter the closed off area. This area of Iceland is also out in the middle of nowhere. The town is up to 10 hours away in a car (due to bad roads). Weather is also extremely unpredictable and can change without warning. So if you are thinking about going on car or foot. Don’t go!

The good news is that it is still allowed to fly over the area. So get one of those tours. I don’t know what they cost, but I know they take place if weather allows.

News bits

Arrested near the Holuhraun eruption (Rúv.is)
See the lava creeping forward at Holuhraun (Rúv.is, video)
The powers at play beneath the surface (Rúv.is, video)

More news in English can be found here (Rúv.is).

Updates for 06-September-2014

As noted by many here there is now news report on how much Bárðarbunga volcano has lowered since 16-August-2014. Bárðarbunga volcano has lowered some 15 meters according to latest measurements. This does not reduces the risk of eruption in Bárðarbunga caldera, in fact, this might increase it by a large margin. Such large drop in a mountain has not happened in Iceland since Askja 1875 when that volcano dropped some 300 meters in one of the largest eruption in the 19th century. According to the news on Rúv the caldera crust is in fact floating the magma that is keeping it up. Part of that magma is now erupting just north of Dyngjökull glacier.
Magnitude 5,0 earthquake took place in Bárðarbunga volcano at 05:40 UTC. It was in the NE Bárðarbunga in the caldera rim.
The risk of large eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano has increased due the current activity and drop of the caldera (as explained above). When such eruption would take place is impossible to know at this time.
The lava field is now just 900 meters from Jökulsá á Fjöllum glacier river. It is going to get into contact with the main stream sometimes in the next 24 hour period.
The activity in the new eruption fissure has decreased a little over the past 24 hours. It is now only erupting in one or two craters at the moment.
There is high risk of new fissures opening in the rift valley without warning. Both outside the glacier and below it. If an eruption takes place under the glacier there is going to be sudden glacier flood that is going to hit without warning.
Possible minor eruption might have happened under Dyngjökull glacier in last few days. As there have been cauldron formations in it. One of the cauldron is some 6 km from the glacier edge. The deepest cauldron is 35 meter deep according to radar measurements.
A new cauldron was also found some 10 km from the edge of Dyngjujökull glacier. This suggest that minor eruption took place there in past few days.
Blue mist has been seen today in east Iceland. It is not clear what is happening, but there are clues that this blue mist is connected to the eruption. Sensors to measure this blue mist have been sent to east Iceland. This blue mist can also be seen on satellites that Icelandic Met Office uses for weather measurements.

News bits for 06-September-2014

Rannsaka bláa móðu á Austurlandi (Rúv.is, picture of the blue mist, Icelandic)
Eldstöðvarnar í Holuhrauni – Myndband (Rúv.is, Icelandic, video)

Updates for 07-September-2014

Earthquake with the magnitude of 5,4 took place at 07:07 UTC. This earthquake took place in the caldera rim as other earthquakes in Bárðarbunga volcano.
The flow of magma is currently 100 to 200 m³ every second.
The new fissure has stopped erupting according to latest news.
There is a high risk of new fissure opening up in the erupting area without warning.
The lava field has reached Jökulsá á Fjöllum glacier river. This is going to increase conductivity in the river as the lava goes more into the glacier river. There is a lot of steam cloud being created following this. It is not clear when the lava field is going to dam the glacier river.
There are now only 2 – 3 craters erupting in the main erupting fissure. The power of the eruption remains the same.
Earthquake activity continues south of current eruption. Most of the earthquake activity now is taking place in the glacier, where minor eruptions have been taking place in past few days.
There is no sign of this activity is about to end.
Bárðarbunga volcano caldera continues to sink. There is a lack of earthquakes in the caldera it self. That suggest the heat below the crust is high enough to make the crust soft and that prevents earthquakes from happening. More on this tomorrow (Monday).

News bits on 07-September-2014

100 – 200 rúmmetrar úr jörðu á sekúndu (Rúv.is, video, Icelandic)
Svona hefur Bárðarbunga sigið (Rúv.is, picture of the lowering of Bárðarbunga caldera, Icelandic)

Article updated at 14:04 UTC on 06-September-2014.
Article updated at 14:11 UTC on 06-September-2014.
Article updated at 18:16 UTC on 06-September-2014.
Article updated at 18:18 UTC on 06-September-2014.
Article updated at 18:29 UTC on 06-September-2014.
Article updated at 19:43 UTC on 06-September-2014.
Article updated at 14:52 UTC on 07-September-2014.

September 4, 2014September 5, 2014

Eruption update for Bárðarbunga volcano at 18:52 UTC

This information is going to get outdated fast.

This is latest information that I got on Bárðarbunga volcano eruption. The status of the eruption and the volcano is always changing so I do not have up to date information on what is going on. The area is also remote and subject to bad weather at times and often for days.

There is no change in the eruption it self. There is also no sign that this eruption is about to end. It has now been going on for the past four days.
The lava field is just few days away from entering Jökulsá á Fjöllum glacier river. It has already entered smaller streams in the area. When the lava enters the river it is going to create steam explosions and small local ash clouds.
More magma is flowing into the dyke at depth than is erupting from it. This means that there is extremely high risk of the magma breaking a new path to the surface south of current eruption. The most likely place for new eruption to start is in the rift valley that has formed.
The rift valley that has been created continues to grow. This also shows that magma is just 2 km under the surface at the most. Large parts of this rift valley is under the glacier.
Currently there is no explanation on why harmonic tremor increased yesterday (03-September-2014). No eruption under the glacier seems to have taken place. At least no sign of such event has been observed as of yet.
People have been trying to enter the area in illegal way. This is extremely dangerous. Since an eruption under the glacier might start without warning, there is also risk of quick sand around this area due to all the changes that are now taking place in the crust at Holuhraun lava field.
Bárðarbunga volcano caldera continues to have earthquakes. Largest earthquake since midnight had the magnitude of 4,8 at 03:44 UTC, second largest earthquake had the magnitude of 4,4 at 10:28 UTC. Other earthquakes have been smaller.
There has been a slight increase in earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera. Most of this earthquake activity is micro-earthquakes.
The glacier inside Bárðarbunga volcano caldera is up to 850 meters thick according to the news report I did hear today.
Since the eruption started there has been drop in earthquake activity. Most of the earthquake activity is taking place south of current eruption in an forming rift valley at that same location.
Eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera is still a possibility and has not been ruled out. Eruption under the glacier south of current eruption has not been ruled and is expected to take place at some point in the future if the current eruption continues as it has been doing.

News bits in English and Icelandic

“Everything changes when night falls” (Rúv.is, video)
(Full) frontal breakout of Pāhoehoe lava (Rúv.is, video)
Up to 130 meter high lava fountains (Rúv.is)

Hraunið nálgast Jökulsá (mbl.is, Icelandic, picture)

Updates 04-September-2014

Evening news on Rúv, 04-September-2013. Has some great video(s) of the eruption. Second news starts at 05:50.

Toxic gas has been measured up to 6 km above the eruption craters. Most of the toxic gas that is being released is SO2 (see Wikipedia information here). There is also some CO (Wikipedia information here) along with minor amounts of hydrogen. There is also some water vapour getting released from the lava in this eruption.

Updates 05-September-2014

Two new fissures have opened up according to Rúv News. This new fissures are now erupting and are closer to the glacier than the fissure that started erupting almost one week ago.

Article updated at 20:48 UTC on 04-September-2014.
Article updated at 20:50 UTC on 04-September-2014.
Article updated at 21:58 UTC on 04-September-2014.
Article updated at 08:09 UTC on 05-September-2014.

September 3, 2014September 4, 2014

Rift valley has formed south of the eruption in Holuhraun lava field

This information is going to get outdated quickly. This is current events in Báðarbunga volcano.

Rift valley has formed south of the eruption. Part of this rift valley is not under the glacier. Most of this rift valley is under the glacier, were the glacier is thin the glacier has formed a cauldron that is around 1 km wide and several meters deep. There is a risk of eruption in the newly formed rift valley.
Harmonic tremor suggest that an glacier flood is under way from Bárðarbunga volcano. What is happening is unclear at the moment. Scientists and press people have been told to evacuate the area due to this risk.
More magma is going into the dyke then is erupting from it. This has increased the pressure inside the dyke.
Largest earthquake since midnight had the magnitude 5,5.

Updates

There has not been any sign of an eruption under the glacier yet. One idea for this increase in harmonic tremor is that ground water got into contact with the magma at 1 to 2 km depth.
There is a high risk of eruption taking place under the glacier in the area of Dyngjujökull glacier, that glacier is south of current eruption and can be seen on the Míla web cameras.
There is a lot of cracks in the ground south of the eruption, in some places the ground has dropped some meters down.

Updates on 4-September-2014

Largest earthquakes since midnight (04-September-2014) had the magnitude of 4,8 and 4,4.
The eruption is now creating 120 to 130 meters tall lava fountains at the moment. No other change has been reported.

News in both Icelandic and English

Mikið af sprungum í jörðinni (Rúv.is, Icelandic, Video, Image)
Hraunbreiðan 9,1 ferkílómetri (mbl.is, Icelandic, Pictures)

Notice on commens

I have to approve all comments first time around. This is in order to prevent spam from taking place in my comment section. Spam prevention is the common Captcha puzzle and a maths test. Registered users don’t have to type in captcha word puzzle or the maths test.

Article updated at 00:27 UTC on 04-September-2014.
Article updated at 11:58 UTC on 04-September-2014.
Article updated at 14:01 UTC on 04-September-2014.

September 1, 2014September 3, 2014

Update on Bárðarbunga volcano and eruption at 19:23 UTC

This is a short update on current status in Bárðarbunga volcano and the eruption. This information is going to get outdated quickly.

Current status in Bárðarbunga volcano

Earthquake activity remains reactively high at the moment. Strongest earthquakes today had the magnitude of 4,9, 5,0 and 5,3. Other earthquakes have been smaller.
Dyke activity remains high and eruption remains high. See more details below.
Risk of eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera remains high.
There is nothing suggesting that current events are about to end.

Current status of the eruption in Holuhrauni lava field

Eruption dropped this morning, but after 12:00 UTC it increased again. There does not seem to be any change the dyke that is feeding the eruption.
Sulphur (SO2) is being released into the atmosphere, according to measurements that is around 20,000 tonnes/day. Good map can be found here, the news in Icelandic.
According to the news, this eruption is about 5 times larger than the eruption in Fimmvörðuhálsi in Eyjafjallajökli. One geologist told in the news that this eruption had erupted everything that Fimmvörðuháls eruption did in it’s time around 12:00 today (If my memory is correct on this).
The lava field continues to grow. I am not sure about exact size at the moment.
Pressure in the dyke appears to be high. This might result in more fissure eruption and there is a high risk that some of them might open up under the glacier. More is going to be known tomorrow if the dyke pressure is changing.
Northern part of the fissure is more active than the south part. Part of the fissure has closed and is not erupting any more. That might change without warning if the eruption gains more strength.
This eruption is might continue to for weeks or even moths.

If there is any sudden change I am going to post information soon as I can.

News bits

Close-up view of fresh Icelandic lava (Rúv.is)
Gosið ennþá nokkuð kröftugt – loftmyndir (air video, Rúv.is)

Updates

New crater opened up suddenly. It is far north on this image (to the right).

The new crater soon after it started erupting. Screen-shot of Míla web camera. Copyright of this image belongs to Míla.

The lava field is getting close to Jökulsá á Fjöllum glacier river. Once that happens steam explosions are going to start and local ash clouds are going to be created. They won’t have any effect on anything but the local area. Once the lava field gets into the glacier river it is also going to show higher conductivity on instruments that are monitoring the glacier river downstream. Due the volcanic material getting into the glacier river.
There is a risk of fissure opening up under the glacier without warning. Both close and at more distance from current eruption site.

Article updated at 03:39 UTC on 02-September-2014.
Article updated at 22:27 UTC on 02-September-2014.

August 30, 2014August 30, 2014

Update on Askja and Bárðarbunga volcanoes at 17:49 UTC

This information is going to get outdated quickly.

This is the weekend edition of my regular updates on activity in Bárðarbunga and Askja volcano. They are shorter and might not contain all the information on what is going on.

Current status on Askja volcano

Askja continues to be on Yellow alert.
Dyke does not seems to have any progress moving into Askja volcano system. Reason why that is are unknown.
Earthquake activity appears to have dropped in Askja for the past 24 hour period.

Current status on Bárðarbunga volcano

Largest earthquake for the past 24 hours is a magnitude 5,4 earthquake that took place at 07:03 UTC. It took place in south-west part of Bárðarbunga volcano. It did appear clearly on my geophones and they can be viewed here.
Eruption has been confirmed to have taken place on 23-August-2014. That eruption did not manage to break the trough the glacier since it is 400 to 600 meters thick were the eruption took place.
Most earthquake activity is taking place on 15 km long line in the Dyke, starting at the location were the eruption took place and goes some 15 km south from that location. Dyke does not seems to be moving north at the moment.
Eruption is now considered more likely in Bárðarbunga volcano it self than before.
Last large eruption that took place in Bárðarbunga volcano was in 1717. According to Global Volcanism Program that eruption was an VEI 3 eruption.
Eruption can happen in slopes of Bárðarbunga volcano, also in its caldera. The glacier in the caldera is up to 800 meters thick (+- 100 meters).
Earthquake activity is stable, with over 1000 to 2000 earthquakes recorded daily so far.

GPS data

Icelandic Met Office has released GPS data and it can be viewed here.

Storm warning

There is going to be a storm in Iceland on Sunday. This means fewer earthquakes are going to be detected due the wind noise.

News bits in English

Eruption at Bardarbunga now more likely (Rúv.is)
Fresh ice cracks in Bárðarbunga? (mbl.is)

Updates during the weekend

I am going to post updates during the weekends. I do however need to take a little break since I’ve been working and writing about Bárðarbunga for the past two weeks. So updates on weekends are going to be shorter and less detailed than on working days (Monday – Fridays). If eruption happens I am going to post information about that eruption soon as I become aware of it and details soon as possible.

Article updated at 17:52 UTC.
Article updated at 18:10 UTC.
Article updated at 19:01 UTC. I corrected information about the dyke earthquake location.

August 29, 2014August 30, 2014

Status update on Askja and Bárðarbunga at 18:35 UTC

This information is going to get outdated quickly.

For the media (news) please note! I am not a professional geologist. I got all the same knowledge as they do, but I am not a professional geologist. For professional view on what is going on please contact Icelandic Met Office or University of Iceland, Geology department.

Askja volcano

This is the current information that I got on Askja volcano.

Dyke from Bárðarbungu volcano continues into Askja volcano. It has slowed down according to reports from yesterday. I have not seen any reports on its process today.
Earthquake activity is increasing in Askja volcano. This is due to effects from the dyke.
Askja continues to be on Yellow alert status.

Bárðarbunga volcano

This are current informations that I got on Bárðarbunga volcano.

The eruption is over for now. It only lasted 3 – 4 hours.
This eruption was only lava. No or almost no volcano ash was put into the atmosphere. Some water vapour was seen (the white clouds) after the eruption ended.
The eruption took place in a fissure that last erupted in the year 1797. That eruption created Holuhraun lava field. This eruption took place in a crater row.
The eruption fissure was 900 meters long according to news in Iceland today.
Earthquake activity dropped while the eruption took place. It has increased again. I did see on my geophones an earthquake swarm as the eruption reached its peak.
This is the first time I see an eruption in a older crater row. This might be normal for this area of Iceland.
Future eruptions can happen at any time while current activity continues in Bárðarbunga volcano.
Largest earthquakes today was a magnitude 5,2 earthquake, second largest earthquake today was a magnitude 4,8 and third largest earthquake today was a magnitude 4,1.
Earthquake activity continues to be high, with over 900 earthquakes recorded so far today (according to my earthquake counter).
Harmonic tremor is on same level as it has been on since 16-August-2014.

Analyse of the eruption

The eruption started around 00:02 UTC, when it was first visible on Míla web cameras. I was notified of this by a person watching the cameras over Facebook around 00:30 UTC. According to Rúv news and other news sources the eruption peaked at 01:20 UTC. It was over around 04:00 UTC. The volume this eruption placed on the surface was minor, it had no impact on the magma that is in the dyke. Future eruptions on this fissure cannot be ruled out. As stated above last eruption took place on this same fissure in the year 1797.

This is the second confirmed eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano since this started. With the first one being on 23-August-2014. When a similar minor eruption took place. That eruption was under glacier (up to 600 meters of it) and was not observed for that reason. This new period of activity in Bárðarbunga volcano is possibly going to last for years, if only based on the volcano eruption history as it is documented on Global Volcanism Program website. I am at least preparing to write about Bárðarbunga for a long time now.

I am going to write notification about new eruptions soon as I become aware of them. The weather forecast for the next few days is not good. So visibility is going to be limited in the area close to Bárðarbunga.

Images of the new lava and mixture of old and new craters can be found here.

Article updated at 18:43 UTC.
Article updated at 18:51 UTC.
Article updated at 19:10 UTC.
Article updated at 15:14 UTC on 30-August-2014.

August 29, 2014August 29, 2014

Update on Askja and Bárðarbunga volcanoes at 22:21 UTC

This is a short update on Askja and Bárðarbunga volcanoes. This information is going to get outdated quickly. I am not going to use pictures from now on (in most cases), since the situation now is complex and is going to go more complex as this goes on.

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Askja volcano

The dyke from Bárðarbunga volcano continues its journey into Askja. It has not yet reached Askja magma chamber. When that is going to happen is unclear at the moment.
Activity has been picking up in Askja due to stress changed from the dyke.

Bárðarbunga volcano

Dyke activity continues at similar rate as before. It is now moving about 1 – 2 km a day according to latest news. The dyke has reached Askja volcano main system, it has not reached Askja main magma chamber. Once that is breached earthquake activity along with harmonic tremor in Askja is going to trough the roof.
Eruption on 23-August-2014 has been confirmed. It only lasted for 1 – 2 hours before it died down. I think current ideas why it happened are wrong. From my perspective it happened due to magma pressure inside Bárðarbunga magma chamber reaching a high point (highest so far). This did mean that the dyke was not able to tap off the magma chamber at fast enough rate for a short while. Allowing magma to breach the crust at other locations. While this was a short event, this suggests that magma is coming into Bárðarbunga magma chamber at depth. So far the volume that is flowing in is low for the moment. I suspect that might change at any time and without any warning.
The reason why the ice cauldron did not appear sooner is that it took the water some time to dig its own path trough the glacier. Why it did go to Grímsvötn lake (Grímsfjall volcano) I do not knwo.
Earthquake activity remains high in the north end of the dyke. Earthquake activity is present in Bárðarbunga volcano (main volcano), but it is not constant at the moment. That might change without warning.
No dyke activity so far going south of Bárðarbunga volcano.
Cracks appearing in the crust suggest that the dyke depth is only about 2 km at most. This has also allowed for groundwater warning up in areas. This has been seen under areas were the glacier is thin. This is creating hot springs and hydrothermal areas along the dyke path.
Inflation so far is around 40 cm to the east and west. There is nothing to suggest it is going to slow down at the moment.
This might be a long eruption once it starts. How long I do not know. At most some years, as has happened in Bárðarbunga volcano in the past.
Today there has been minor “quiet” time in Bárðrabunga. Harmonic tremor has been stable and no cycle of up and down has taken place. In my view that might change in next hours. I am already seeing changes in the tremor plot that suggest this.

The situation is highly dynamic and is going to change rapidly at times. So this information is going to get outdated quickly for that reason. For wind, weather and earthquake information in Iceland please check Iceland Met Office website. My geophone website can be viewed here.

Article updated at 23:33 UTC.

August 28, 2014August 28, 2014

Update on Bárðarbunga and Askja volcanoes at 13:34 UTC

This is a none picture update on Askja and Bárðarbunga volcanoes. The reason for this none picture update is that I haven’t had time to work on the images yet. This is the first time this has happened in Iceland since modern recording started. What is going to come out of this I do not know yet.

If you are in the area. Please don’t go into the closed area. There are fines for during so and it is also extremely dangerous since we don’t know properly what happens and risk of sudden flood is high and growing. Eruption might start at any time without warning, both outside the glacier and inside the glacier. If an eruption takes place in a glacier covered area, that means sudden glacier flood that are going to kill you if you are in flood path. In such glacier flood it is not just mud, volcano material, but also an ice bergs that are larger than 5 floor houses. If you get lost in such flood, the chance of being rescued from such flood are none. If you want to watch what is now unfolding do so at the save distance, this show is going to big according to my earliest estimate and guess work (not going to publish that here).

Askja volcano

The dyke from Bárðarbunga volcano has entered Askja volcano. Not the fissure swarm, the volcano it self.
Askja volcano status has been elevated to Yellow.

Bárðarbunga volcano

Cauldrons in Vatnajökull glacier that is on top of Bárðarbunga volcano have not grown during the night.
The water seems to be flowing into Grímsvötn (Grímsfjall volcano) lake. It has risen close to 15 meters in the past few days.
Earthquake activity is high. Both in the main volcano were a magnitude 5,4 earthquake (EMSC magnitude, USGS magnitude) took place today (28-August-2014) at 08:13 UTC. The earthquake took place in the caldera rim as most of the large earthquakes have happened.
Over 1300 earthquakes happened yesterday in the north end of the dyke swarm.
Cracks have started to happen in the crust above the dyke. This means the dyke is getting wider and is higher up in the crust then suggested by earthquake activity. There are reports of small cauldrons in Dyngjujökull glacier in the area, in the place were the glacier is thinnest and ending.
Harmonic tremor remains high on all SIL stations around Bárðarbunga volcano.

The situation is extremely dynamic and is going to change fast in next 24 to 48 hours. I am now close to 80% sure that an eruption is going to take place in both Askja volcano and Bárðarbunga volcano, since minor eruptions have been taking place under the glacier already.

August 27, 2014August 27, 2014

Bárðarbunga volcano update at 00:31 UTC

This information is going to get outdated quickly.

This is the short update on status on the activity in Bárðarbungu volcano.

Current activity is mostly unchanged. Earthquake activity remains high and there are around 1000 earthquakes every 24 hours.
According to the news today and Icelandic Met Office data, the dyke doesn’t appear to be getting longer. It is now around 37 km long.
Largest earthquake since 2008 took place in Bárðarbunga volcano on 26-August-2014 at 01:26 UTC. It had the magnitude of 5,7 and took place in Bárðarbunga caldera. Second medium earthquake took place today at 11:56 UTC and had the magnitude 4,6. It was felt in Akureyri.
There are no signs of magma going to the surface as of writing of this article. I do expect that change quickly.
It is now my view that after the magnitude 5,7 earthquake the risk of an eruption Bárðarbungu caldera has increased from what it was. I don’t know yet if an such eruption is going to take place. I however find it to be the most likely outcome based on current status.

The magnitude 5,7 earthquake that took place on 26-August-2014 is the strong earthquake in Iceland since 2008, when a magnitude 6,3 earthquake happened between Selfoss town and Hveragerði in the South Seismic Zone in Iceland (often just called SISZ). Earthquake activity remains high in the north end of the dyke, with strongest earthquake today having the magnitude 4,6. With many more magnitude 3,0 and stronger earthquakes taking place. There are still over 1000 earthquakes being recorded every 24 hours in area where the dyke is located (about 20 km east of Trölladyngja).

Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano today. This map is already outdated. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Earthquake activity remains extremely dense in the dyke from Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Total lack of earthquake at the start of the dyke suggest that the flow of magma is now smooth and it is flowing without any resistance to the north end of dyke. Where the dyke seems to have hit a resistance in the crust that he is not able to break at current time. I don’t know if the earthquakes that have been taking place today are going to change that. But if this resistance in the crust holds there is a chance it there are going to be even large earthquakes that are going to take place at this location. What magnitude is to expect is difficult to know for sure, but the crust in this area is able to make earthquakes above magnitude 5,5, but how far up the scale it goes I do not know.

There has been some deep earthquake activity taking place according to the automatic data, but since it is automatic data it might be wrong. The deepest earthquake that I did see to day took place today had a automatic depth of 29,3 km with quality of 90,10. There is a chance this dyke might get into connection of other deep dyke in this area. This are dykes that form deep in the crust at depth of more then 30 km, they don’t make any earthquakes when they form since the crust material in this region of the crust is soft and is unable to break and does not make an earthquake as result. I do not know what happens if this dyke manages to connect to an dyke that might have formed in the deeper range of the earth crust in this area. It is also a highly unlikely outcome, for the moment however it is not impossible. Since the dyke now has problems pushing north, and as an result of that it seems to be pushing a little bit down as result. It is clear that once it can not extent any future down or to the sides, it is going to go up. I am not expecting the flow of magma into the dyke to drop any time soon. That might happen, it is just unlikely to happen given the current data. Estimated amount of magma is around 350 million m³ today (26-August-2014).

Harmonic tremor remained high in Bárðarbunga volcano due to magma flow in the dyke. This is Dyngjuháls SIL station. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Here is the harmonic tremor in Bárðarbunga on the SIL station in Kreppuhraun. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

The harmonic tremor shows that the dyke inflow continues as I did write about above. It also shows one important thing, the flow of magma into the dyke and presumably into Bárðarbunga volcano is not even. It happens in short periods of high inflow with lower periods between them.

GPS data show the magma continues to flow into the dyke at 5 to 10 km depth. More GPS plots can be found here. Copyright of this image belongs to University of Iceland.

The magnitude 5,7 earthquake as it appeared on my geophone in Heklubyggð. This image is released under Creative Commons licence. See CC Licence page for more details.

The magnitude 5,7 earthquake as it appeared on my geophone in Böðvarshólar. This image is released under Creative Commons licence. See CC Licence page for more details.

What this has told me is that there is far more magma in Bárðarbunga volcano then appear at first sight. How much of it can actually erupt in an eruption I do not know. But this seems to be far more complicated then I first thought, it is not just a dyke pushing out of Bárðarbunga volcano. There is also a lot more magma inside the magma chamber that is starting to look for an way out, at least from the looks of current activity. The glacier inside the caldera is 700 meters thick so the magma inside the magma chamber that is directly below the caldera is under this extra pressure from the glacier. Once that magma overcomes the pressure of the glacier an eruption is going to start in the caldera, until that time we might see more dyke activity going north and south of Bárðarbunga volcano. Since the magma is going to go first the easiest way out. How much pressure has to be inside the magma chamber to overcome the pressure of the 700 meter thick glacier inside the caldera I do not know. All I know is that it is a high number on any pressure scale.

As of this writing a new magnitude 5,1 (more on EMSC website here) has taken place in Bárðarbunga volcano caldera. Larger earthquake appear clearly on my geophones that can be viewed here.

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