Category: Fissures

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Update on the activity between Keilir and Fagradalsfjall mountains

This is a short article written on 17-March-2021 at 17:49 UTC. The situation can change without warning.

It has been less activity in in Fagradalsfjall volcano (Krýsuvík volcano). Current day to day change is not a lot at the writing of this article but it is also possible that bad weather that is now passing over Iceland is masking some of the smaller earthquakes in the dyke between Keilir mountain and Fagradalsfjall mountain. Inflation continues at what seems to be about the same rate as yesterday (16-March-2021).

Earthquake activity shows but less then in last few days. Most of the red dots are located between mountain Keilir and Fagradalsfjall mountain after change in earthquake after the weekend
Earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano located between Keilir mountain and Fagradalsfjall mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Number of strong earthquakes has dropped after the strong earthquake activity during last weekend (12 to 14 March). What also changed is that the dyke can’t move more south then it already has. It seems that it hit a impasse in the crust that it was unable to break or go around (harder crust is the most common why this happens). The current status is a waiting for the eruption to start and when that happens is impossible to know.

Since there is not a lot of change going on at the writing of this article I am going to slow down the number of updates I am posting. Next update is going to be when something happens or at the latest Monday 22-March 2021.

Web cameras

Beint vefstreymi af skjálftasvæðinu – Borgarfjall (Rúv.is) If an eruption happens it might be visible here – This web camera no longer works.
Beint vefstreymi af skjálftasvæðinu – Efstaleiti – This web camera no longer works.
Road camera 1
Road camera 2 (night vision/infrared)
Live from Iceland – Keilir – This web camera is working (I think).

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Article updated on 18-March-2021 at 20:07. Web camera updates.

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Update on Fagradalsfjall volcano activity on 10-March-2021

This is a short update on the activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano. This article is written at 21:08 UTC.

Since Monday 8-March-2021 there has been a lot going on and there are no signs of this activity slowing down. Currently it seems that the volcano dyke is expanding to the south and that is more into Fagradalsfjall mountain that is a earlier eruption structure from maybe few million years ago. This expansion of the magma dyke is resulting in strong earthquake activity and during the night the strongest earthquake had a magnitude of Mw5,1 at 03:15 UTC. Second largest earthquake had a magnitude of Mw4,6 at 08:50 UTC. Over the last 48 hours 68 earthquakes with magnitude above Mw3,0 have taken place. Smaller earthquakes are happening with the rate of 1 to 5 or more earthquakes at every minute. Since 24-February-2021 over 34.000 earthquakes have been recorded by Icelandic Met Office.

Dense earthquake activity on Reykjanes peninsula. Dense location of green stars that shows the location of the main active area. A lot of red dots showing smaller earthquakes
Earthquake activity on the Reykjanes peninsula. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

The chance of an eruption are increasing according to Icelandic Met Office in the news this evening. While the magma dyke has space to expand it is going to do so. The magma in the dyke is now at the shallowest only at 1 km depth or less. Exact depth has been problematic to get information about. Eruption can happen without much earthquake activity because how shallow the magma is to the top of the crust. There remains a high risk of an earthquake with magnitude Mw6,0 to Mw6,5. Both in the fracture areas on both ends of the dyke and in Brenninsteinsfjöll volcano.

Next update is going to be on Friday (12-March-2021) unless something major might happen.

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Harmonic tremor pulse during the night until morning in Fagradalsfjall volcano (9-March-2021)

This is a short article on the activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano. This situation is developing quickly and it is impossible to know what happens next.

During the night of 9-March-2021 from 05:20 UTC until around 07:00 UTC an harmonic tremor pulse was detected by Icelandic Met Office. This shows that the magma is still expanding into the Earth crust below Fagradalsfjall mountain and according to Icelandic Met Office it looks like the dyke is expanding in south direction but it is going to take a day or two to confirm that with GPS data.

Earthquake activity in the volcano Fagradalsfjall. Dots on a generated map my a program called Skjálfta-Lísa shows the most recent earthquake activity from midnight until 16:18
Earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall volcano. This shows the possible location of the south end of the magma dyke. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

There have been fewer stronger earthquakes in last few days. While the there are fewer strong earthquakes the amount of earthquakes has not really dropped in any number, most earthquakes are small in magnitude and only few reach magnitude above Mw3,0. This quiet period is not expected to last for any amount of time while magma continues to be injected into the crust of Fagradalsfjall volcano. There continues to be a high risk for earthquake with magnitude Mw6,0 to Mw6,5 along with risk of Mw6,5 earthquake in Brennisteinsfjöll volcano. Currently no magma movement is being detected in Reykjanes volcano, Krýsuvík volcano or Brennisteinsfjöll volcano.

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New information about the situation in Fagradalsfjall volcano

This is a short article about the new information published today (8-March-2021) by Icelandic Met Office and Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management.

New measurements of the situation in Fagradalsfjall volcano show that the dyke intrusion continues to grow and as at its shallowest point at 1 km depth. Possible eruption is expected at the south end of the dyke intrusion (closest to Fagradalsfjall mountain). Earthquakes are going to happen at the south-west end of the dyke and north-east of the dyke because of the inflation the magma is creating in the area.

The dyke shown with dotted line and circle shows the most effective area. Gray areas at both ends shows earthquake effected area
The earthquake areas at the ends of the dyke intrusion, shown in gray areas on this map. The dyke is shown within the line with dot lines. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

There are going to be quiet times between high period of activity according to the news about this activity. There is also ongoing risk of a earthquake with magnitude of Mw6,5 in Brennisteinsfjöll volcano and according to Icelandic Met Office that risk has not been reduced in recent days. Outside of the Fagradalsfjall volcano magma dyke, no magma movement has been detected in Reykjanes (Svartsengi?) volcano and in Krýsuvík volcano.

Sources (Icelandic)

Áfram má búast við að virknin á Reykjanesskaga verði kaflaskipt (Iceland, English, Polish, Almannavarnir.is)
Kvikan er á kílómetra dýpi (Rúv.is, Icelandic)

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Update on activity in Fagradalsfjall, Krýsuvík, Reykjanes volcanoes

The situation on Reykjanes peninsula is getting complicated due to activity between three volcanoes. This article is written at 15:22 UTC.

The volcanoes that are now showing activity on Reykjanes peninsula

Reykjanes volcano
Krýsuvík volcano
Fagradalsfjall volcano (added from 04-March-2021)

Fagradalsfjall volcano has no document eruption history over the last 10.000 years and the main volcano location is unknown if it exists.

Updates from the last few hours

  • Small rift valley has started to form between Keili mountain and Fagradalsfjall mountain. This is part of the rift zone that is Reykjanes peninsula.
  • Harmonic tremor stopped this morning and as Icelandic Met Office has been telling the news the origins of this harmonic tremor was earthquake activity that was so dense it created this harmonic activity. In the morning the activity dropped a little.
  • Magma continues to move in the Fagradalsfjall volcano system.
  • Earthquake activity is now between the volcanoes Reykjanes, Fagradalsfjalls and Krýsuvík. Why that is unclear but magma movement for now is only in Fagrdalsfjall volcano system.
  • Largest earthquake in last 24 hours had a magnitude of Mw4,5. Over the last 48 hours total of 72 earthquakes with magnitude over Mw3,0 have taken place. There is no sign of activity slowing down.

 

Dense earthquake activity in Reykjanes volcano, Fagradalsfjall volcano and Krýsuvík volcano. A lot of red dots showing new earthquakes and green stars showing earthquakes with magnitude above Mw3,0 on Reykjanes peninsula
Heavy earthquake activity on Reykjanes peninsula in several volcanoes. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

It is currently impossible to know for sure what happens next since this situation is extremely complicated because of all the volcanoes interactions and earthquake activity.

Live internet broadcasts of Keilir

Beint vefstreymi af skjálftasvæðinu – Efstaleiti (Rúv.is)
Keil­ir í beinni (mbl.is)
Keilir og skjálftasvæðið (YouTube)

If anything major happens I am going to post update soon as possible.

Article updated at 15:38 UTC.

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What is going to happen next in Bárðarbunga volcano

It has been few days since the eruption in Holuhraun has ended and everything is quiet for the moment in Bárðarbunga volcano. What is going to happen next is a big question and nobody has the exact answer. Here are few options.

  • Nothing is going to happen. The rift is going to continue without more eruptions.
  • New magma intrusion is going to start soon in Bárðarbunga volcano. New eruption is going to start days to weeks later.

There is also high risk in my view of eruptions in Hamarinn volcano (also called Loki-Fögrufjöll). That volcano system is inside Bárðarbunga volcano and dyke intrusion from Bárðarbunga to the south might start a volcano eruption in it. I don’t know how big such eruption would be, it is my estimate. Dyke to Torfajökull volcano is unlikely to happen. I however cannot rule it out at this point.

What is going happen in Bárðarbunga volcano depends on many factors and not all of them are known. What is known is that heat has been increasing in shallower parts of the crust and caldera for the past six months and those signs are not good. What is not known is the time in question. Next eruption could happen tomorrow or nothing can happen for years. There is no way to know when next eruption is going to happen.

Currently I am just monitoring Bárðarbunga volcano and waiting to see what happens next. The text above is just speculation, not fact. It is not clear what is going to happen next. The only way to know that for sure is to wait until next eruption starts and that might be a long wait.

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The eruption in Holuhraun has ended

The eruption in Holuhraun ended yesterday (27-Februar-2015) it seems. Current status of Bárðarbunga volcano is now yellow. While the eruption is over the area continues to be closed for public due to danger of new eruptions in the area, both outside the glacier and inside it. It is unclear what is going to happen next in Bárðarbunga volcano. There is also a considerable gas emission from Holuhraun crater at the moment and that gas is toxic.

150228_1415
Current earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano and for the past 48 hours. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

What happens next is not known. There is a high risk of new eruption taking place under the glacier. I don’t know if subsidence of the caldera is going on at the moment or has stopped. It might take days, weeks or months until inflation starts again in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is a rifting event and that means this is far from over. For the moment however it is going to be a little break (at least, it can be hope) in the activity in Holuhraun or Bárðarbunga volcano. The lava and the crater continue to be extremely hot (~800C) and are going to remain hot for many years (5 years?).

Since the eruption in Holuhraun is over I won’t post any update next Wednesday. Next update is going to be when something happens.

Icelandic News

Icelandic Met Office information website
The eruption has come to an end (Icelandic Met Office)

Note on email: If you need to send me email please send them to volcano [at] jonfr.com. I do not answer emails send to blog [at] jonfr.com. Emails that go this address are ignored.

Article updated at 16:59 UTC.

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No lava flow visible in Holuhraun main crater

Today (27-February-2015) there was no visible lava flow from the main crater in Holuhraun. The eruption is not officially over, this however seems to be the end of this eruption in Bárðarbunga volcano. It appears that gas emission continue from the crater and Holuhraun at the moment, it can be expected those are going to end in next few weeks to months.

New video of the crater in Holuhraun can be found here.

Ekki glóð í gígnum í Holuhrauni – Myndband (Rúv.is, video)

It is not known what happens next in Bárðarbunga volcano or when it is going to happen. All that can be done is to wait and see.

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Bárðarbunga volcano weekly update for 25-February-2015

There hasn’t been a lot of new information about the eruption in Holuhraun this week. Earthquake activity continues in Bárðarbunga volcano as before, but at slower rate and earthquake with magnitude 3,0 and larger have almost stopped at the moment.

150225_1415
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano for the past 48 hours, no earthquake above magnitude 3,0 has been recorded for the past few days. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Earthquake activity continues in Bárðarbunga volcano, but at far lower level than just few weeks ago. Subsidence has slowed down considerably at the moment. It has not stopped. There are earthquakes along the dyke from Bárðarbunga volcano, suggesting that pressure might be increasing in it. That in it self might not lead to a new eruption.

The eruption in Holuhraun continues, but at low level. The only remaining vent that is now open is building a new crater inside the big crater that has now stopped erupting. The eruption might continue at this low level for many more months. Current status of the eruption is not known due to extremely bad weather in Iceland at the moment. The eruption is not over, it is however really small at the moment.

Due to bad weather I am expecting that my geophones might go offline due to loss of power or other connection problems that might happen due to this bad weather. Information about the storm can be found here. This is not a weather to travel outside. If you are in Iceland, stay where you are and don’t travel until the weather has passed over Iceland.

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Article updated at 16:35 UTC.

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Bárðarbunga volcano weekly update on 18-February-2015

There has not been major change in Holuhraun eruption since last week. The eruption continues at low phase at the moment far as I know. Bad weather has prevented scientists monitoring the eruption in the past few days. There continues to be considerable activity in Bárðarbunga volcano, the volcano continues to deflate.

150218_1440
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano for the past 48 hours. Green star is a magnitude 4,1 earthquake that took place at 14:18 UTC on 18-February-2015. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

New vents might open up along the dyke once current vent closes up in Holuhraun. There seems to be several weak points forming along the dyke, based on current earthquake activity (cluster of earthquake activity). There is also a risk this might happen before the eruption in Holuhraun ends. If the pressure inside the dyke is enough to start an eruption in new location before that.

The long term view of Bárðarbunga volcano

When the eruption in Holuhraun ends it is not going to mean the end of activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Current activity is just a start of activity that is going to last for several years. According to Ármann Höskuldsson volcanologist in a interview at Rúv News yesterday. While it is not known for how long the rift episode that has now started in Bárðarbunga volcano is going to last. It is clear that this is at minimum of 5 years, common time for rift zone activity is up to ten years. There is a chance it is going to last longer than that. When it comes to Bárðarbunga volcano how long such activity is not known. There are also going to be breaks, with no activity at all between eruptions. Activity in Bárðarbunga volcano won’t be declared over until it is once again stable. Eruption activity in Bárðarbunga volcano might not end until the year 2026 at the longest.

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