Yesterday (20-November-2021) an large earthquake swarm started in Reykjanes volcano. This earthquake swarm is rather large, with 217 earthquakes recorded so far. Largest earthquake had a magnitude of Mw3,5 but other earthquakes have been smaller in magnitude.
According to a news report today (16-November-2021) inflation has been detected deep under Fagradalsfjall mountain, that is part of Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano system. This inflation suggests that an eruption might start again in Fagradalsfjall mountain, it remains impossible to know when such an eruption might start. Since there is a lot that suggest this inflation is because of magma collecting at depth under Fagradalsfjall mountain. When or if that results in a eruption in the future is impossible to know.
This inflation is now large enough to be seen on satellite images that monitors deformation in the upper crust. In the upper crust this deformation appears small, but that is not all the story in this.
Today (12-November-2021) at 05:05 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,2 took place 3,3 km South West of Keilir mountain. This earthquake was felt up to Borgarnes town.
The earthquake today (11-November-2021) at 13:21 UTC with the magnitude of Mw5,2 seems to align it self with faults that are part of SISZ rather than being part of Hekla volcano system. The high frequency tone on 2 – 4Hz that I did see on few nearby SIL stations has started to lower again after the main earthquake. Earthquake activity in the area is currently dropping but it might increase again without warning.
This is early information but it seems that a magnitude Mw5,2 or larger earthquake took place in Hekla volcano system at 13:21 UTC. This might be a start of an eruption in Hekla volcano, but currently it is too early to know for sure. This is inside Hekla volcano system in a area called Vatnafjöll that have regularly erupted.
Earthquake activity in Hekla volcanos system in a area that is called Vatnafjöll. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
It is not possible to know what is going to happen next in this area. But there is a risk of a magnitude Mw7,0 earthquake. If that is going to happens is impossible to know.
According to an announcement made by Icelandic Met Office there has been a swarm of low frequency earthquakes in Torfajökull volcano since midnight of 28-October-2021. The earthquakes don’t appear clearly on the Icelandic Met Office map but they can be seen on nearby SIL stations. According to Icelandic Met Office the rate of earthquake activity is about 1 – 2 earthquake every 15 minutes.
Earthquake activity in Torfajökull volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
Harmonic tremor activity showing the earthquake activity. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
There are two things that can create this type of low frequency activity. The first one is water that has been superheated in the crust. The second option is that magma is now moving in Torfajökull volcano. This type of activity has happened before without any eruption happening. I think that is going to be the same now at the writing of this article. Since this is an active volcano the situation can change quickly and without warning.
There are no web cameras in the area that I know of. It is remote and there is almost no mobile coverage at this location. If there is a mobile connection, it is limited to 2G (GSM) or slow 3G connection.
Earthquake activity continues close to Keilir mountain. But it remains at depth of 5 to 6 km and doesn’t show any sign that it is about to move to the surface. More than 10000 earthquakes have been recorded and 18 earthquakes have been recorded with magnitude above Mw3,0. This is according to Icelandic Met Office.
Earthquake activity close to Keilir mountain on Reykjanes peninsula. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
The eruption in Fagradalsfjall mountain (more information at Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja website at Global Volcanism Program) has not been active since 19-September-2021 and there are no signs that the eruption is about to restart soon. Global Volcanism Program no longer updates its information for this volcano as an active eruption. Icelandic scientists in eruptions have not declared the eruption over. It should be expected that the eruption in Fagradalsfjall mountain is over for now, but it can start again at the same location or at new location in few weeks time or maybe even few years from now.
Inflation has been increasing in Askja volcano over the last few weeks. According to latest news that inflation is now at 14 cm, since the inflation was detected at the end of August. On Saturday 9-October-2021 an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,2 was detected in Askja volcano (I’ll try and add the picture later if I remember). This is was the strongest earthquake in Askja volcano in the last 20 years according to the news.
Askja is remote and there are no or limited amounts of web cameras in the area. With winter arriving going there is impossible for most people. If an eruption happens this winter the best view is probably going to be harmonic tremor data until pictures appears from Icelandic Met Office or someone with an air plane (if the weather allows for that).
The earthquake swarm with Keilir mountain continues today (2-October-2021) and largest earthquake at the writing of this article had a magnitude of Mw4,2. This might change without warning.
The earthquake activity close to Keilir mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.
Based on what I am seeing it is my view that magma is the reason why this earthquake activity is happening. The magma seems trapped, based on the earthquake activity and that is interesting. This suggest that the feeder channel, that possibly started at this location has closed up and that is the reason why the eruption in Fagradalsfjall mountain stopped. At least that is the working idea, if it is true I don’t know.
Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management and Icelandic Met Office has warned people against going to Keilir mountain because of risk of volcano eruption or large earthquakes.
It is unclear at the writing of this article if there are changes to hydrothermal activity close to Keilir mountain. There have been reports about it, but they remain unconfirmed at the writing of this article.
There is now a risk of an earthquake with magnitude of Mw6,0 in the area of Keilir mountain. The earthquake activity shows a pattern of high and low activity every few hours. Why this happens is not well understood at the writing of this article.
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