Earthquake swarm in Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano, close to Fagradalsfjall mountain, eruption possible soon

This information is going to get outdated soon. Since the situation is changing quickly.

It is possible that a new eruption is about to start in Fagradalsfjall mountain in Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano. This earthquake activity started around 17:00 UTC on 21-December-2021 and has been growing since then. At the writing of this article the largest earthquake had a magnitude of Mw3,3. Over 150 earthquakes have been recorded at the writing of this article. This earthquake activity doesn’t seems to be slowing down.

Earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall, a lot of red dots, green star shows the largest earthquake
Earthquake activity in Fagradalsfjall mountain. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

The situation is changing quickly. As of writing this article a new eruption has not yet started but that might only be question of hours until an eruption starts. This might happen during the night or sometimes tomorrow during the day. There is not any way to know that for sure at the writing of this article.

I’ll post update late tomorrow if this changes and a eruption starts. Since I’ll be busy during the day the late article can’t be helped.

Earthquake swarm north of Grindavík town

Today (8-December-2021) an earthquake swarm started north of Grindavík town. Largest earthquake in this swarm so far had a magnitude of Mw3,1 at 10:44. The news doesn’t say if this earthquake was felt in Grindavík. Earthquake activity has been going up recent weeks since the eruption in Fagradalsfjall ended on 18th September 2021. A swarm of smaller earthquake activity is currently ongoing in this same area at the writing of this article.
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Earthquake with magnitude Mw3,6 in Grímsfjall volcano, no eruption yet

I’ve been trying to wait for information about the activity in Grímsfjall volcano. A new cauldron was discovered yesterday (05-December-2021). It is possible that an small eruption took place in the side of Grímsfjall volcano and didn’t break the glacier. It might have been a short eruption if that is what happened. Harmonic tremor data is unclear on this so I can’t give any good answer. At 06:16 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,6 took place. I poorly recorded it my seismometer and it seems to have been a low period earthquake. Suggesting that a magma pushing up was the reason this earthquake happened.
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Sharp change in harmonic tremor in Grímsfjall volcano

This situation is unclear and nothing has been confirmed as of writing of this article. This seems to have started about 1 hour ago and there has been a change in the harmonic tremor levels at Grímsfjall volcano. This is not yet the super sharp change I did see in May-2011 when that eruption happened. This is however is possibly a change in harmonic tremor that is consistent with magma moving inside the volcano system. Earthquake activity has been minimal in the last 24 hours.

Harmonic tremor on blue, green and purple harmoniuc tremor bands going up sharply in the last one hour.
Harmonic tremor changes in Grímsfjall volcano in the last one hour (article written at 17:34 UTC on 04-December-2021). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This is a monitoring situation currently. Sometimes an eruption happens after a glacier flood or doing a glacier flood in Grímsfjall volcano. At other times however nothing happens and it is not possible to know what happens now.

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Deep inflation detected in Fagradalsfjall mountain

According to a news report today (16-November-2021) inflation has been detected deep under Fagradalsfjall mountain, that is part of Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano system. This inflation suggests that an eruption might start again in Fagradalsfjall mountain, it remains impossible to know when such an eruption might start. Since there is a lot that suggest this inflation is because of magma collecting at depth under Fagradalsfjall mountain. When or if that results in a eruption in the future is impossible to know.

This inflation is now large enough to be seen on satellite images that monitors deformation in the upper crust. In the upper crust this deformation appears small, but that is not all the story in this.

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Update on the Mw5,2 earthquake south of Hekla volcano

The earthquake today (11-November-2021) at 13:21 UTC with the magnitude of Mw5,2 seems to align it self with faults that are part of SISZ rather than being part of Hekla volcano system. The high frequency tone on 2 – 4Hz that I did see on few nearby SIL stations has started to lower again after the main earthquake. Earthquake activity in the area is currently dropping but it might increase again without warning.

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Early information: Magnitude Mw5,2 earthquake in Hekla volcano system

This is early information but it seems that a magnitude Mw5,2 or larger earthquake took place in Hekla volcano system at 13:21 UTC. This might be a start of an eruption in Hekla volcano, but currently it is too early to know for sure. This is inside Hekla volcano system in a area called Vatnafjöll that have regularly erupted.

Earthquake activity in Hekla volcanos system in a area that is called Vatnafjöll. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

It is not possible to know what is going to happen next in this area. But there is a risk of a magnitude Mw7,0 earthquake. If that is going to happens is impossible to know.