Category: Monitoring

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Eruption expected in Fagradalsfjall volcano this year (2023) or next year (2024)

It was reported in Rúv News that eruption is expected to happen in Fagradalsfjall volcano this year (2023) or next year (2024). When those eruptions happen is impossible to know. But before any eruption there’s going to be a large earthquake swarm as happened before the eruption in March 2021 and in August 2022. Fagradalsfjall volcano before the eruption in March 2021 had not erupted for 6000 to 8000 years. That means it unclear how the volcano is going to behave and its going to take a while until that is figured out, but for now it is probable that Fagradalsfjall volcano is going to work in similar way how Krafla volcano erupted between the year 1975 and 1984. With the difference that eruptions in Fagradalsfjall volcano are possibly going to last longer, based on data from other volcanoes on Reykjanes peninsula. This might go on for the next 10 to 20 years, with eruptions and quiet time period between them. Currently Fagradalsfjall volcano is in a quiet time.

This does not rule out eruptions in Reykjanes volcano (west of Fagradalsfjall volcano) and Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano (east of Fagradalsfjall volcano) in next few years. Neither of those volcanoes have erupted in 700 to 900 years and at the writing of this article, don’t show any clear signs that they are about to erupt. Reykjanes volcano has had a lot of dyke intrusion activity since 2019, but no eruptions so far. Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano has not had any dyke intrusion activity. Volcanoes east of Krýsuvík-Trölladyngja volcano, Brennisteinsfjöll volcano and Hengill volcano are currently quiet, but that might change without warning if magma starts to find path up those volcanoes.

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Earthquake south of Kolbeinsey island

Yesterday (10. February 2023) at 16:25 UTC an earthquake with magnitude of Mw3,1 took place around 41 km south of Kolbeinsey island.

Green star and yellow dots at the location of the earthquakes south of Kolbeinsey island.
The earthquake south of Kolbeinsey island. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This earthquake was far from any populated areas of Iceland and was not felt for this reason.

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Strong earthquake swarm in Reykjanes volcano on Reykjanes ridge / Reykjanes peninsula

This earthquake swarm is ongoing at the writing of this article and information can change without warning. The largest earthquake recorded by automatic magnitude of Mw3,7 at the writing of this article. Around 30 to 40 earthquakes have happened so far, but that number might change quickly. This earthquake activity has some signs that it might be happening because of magma intrusion in the area, out in the ocean but signals are not clear.

Three green stars and red dots on the left down side on the map of Reykjanes peninsula, the earthquake activity is happening out in the ocean on the Reykjanes ridge.
The current earthquake activity on Reykjanes ridge. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This earthquake activity is in the volcano Reykjanes, that volcano goes into the ocean and is on dry land. Making possible future eruptions both explosive and flowing magma at the same time. To date, Reykjanes volcano only has had earthquake swarms and no eruption. When that is going to change is impossible to know.

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Small earthquake swarm in Bárðarbunga volcano

Today (7. February 2023) an small earthquake swarm took place. This earthquake swarm started at 11:21 UTC with a magnitude Mw3,2 earthquake and lasted until 12:05 UTC. Other earthquakes were smaller in magnitude.

Green star in the west side of Vatnajökull glacier, were the largest earthquake took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. Few other red dots at the same location show the smaller earthquakes.
Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This shows that Bárðarbunga volcano continues to inflate at high rate. Based on what happened before the eruption in 2014 to 2015 in Bárðarbunga volcano. When the earthquake stop for long time period it means Bárðarbunga volcano is ready for an eruption. While the earthquake activity happens is it is doing today, it means inflation continues in Bárðarbunga volcano.

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Increase in larger earthquakes in Katla volcano (there’s no risk of eruption)

This might not be anything at the writing of this article. Since there’s little earthquake activity in Katla volcano at the moment, its well below background noise. Over the last several months I’ve noticed an slight increase in larger earthquakes in Katla volcano, this might not mean anything, but I do not remember having seen this type of pattern in earthquake activity in Katla volcano before. Currently the earthquake activity is almost none and that means that for now there’s no risk of an eruption.

Mýrdalsjökull glacier and the caldera shown as a elongated circle inside the glacier on the map from Icelandic Met Office. In the central caldera, there's a red dot showing the newest and largest earthquake of today.
Minimal earthquake activity in Katla volcano today (3. February 2023). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Largest earthquake today (3. February 2023) had a magnitude of Mw2,7. This is what has been happening in recent months. This one or two earthquakes that are slightly larger than what I consider normal. There’s a chance this might be normal and nothing more is going to happen, but for now, it is impossible to know for sure what is happening.

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Earthquakes far off the coast on Reykjanes ridge

Yesterday (30. January 2023) had two earthquakes with magnitude Mw3,2 far off the coast on the Reykjanes ridge. Only one smaller earthquake was detected. Distance from the SIL network makes detection of smaller earthquakes is impossible or really difficult.

Two green star in the far left side of the image, one more close to the bottom of the image. Reykjanes peninsula on the right top part of the image.
Earthquakes on the Reykjanes ridge yesterday. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Besides this earthquake activity, it remains quiet in Iceland. Bad weather has also been blocking detection of earthquake activity for the last two weeks.