Status of the earthquake swarm in Nafir volcano east of Grímsey island in Tjörnes Fracture Zone (TFZ) at 15:53 UTC on 18-February-2018

Welcome to the longest article title (this might be like this for a while). Information here might go outdated quickly as the situation changes.

Currently the earthquake swarm is smaller today (18-February-2018) then yesterday (17-February-2018) with mostly small earthquakes happening. Largest earthquakes since midnight had the magnitude of 3,4 at 12:14 UTC. It remains unclear if this earthquake swarm is going to increase again, but at the moment it is currently ongoing.


The earthquake swarm east of Grímsey island. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.


The earthquake activity is less dense today than yesterday. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

It is difficult to know what happens next in this area due to the fact that this area is under the ocean and is really complex due to mixture of tectonic earthquakes (strike-slip activity) and volcano earthquake activity. What seems to be going on now is a volcanic earthquake activity. There is no magma signature at the moment because magma has not started to flow to the surface. It remains a question if it is just a question of time now if that happens. There is no documented eruption history in this area and that makes everything little bit more difficult.

This article is going to be updated if needed.

Article updated at 16:22 UTC. Text fixes.

Tjörnes Fracture Zone (TFZ) earthquake update at 13:20 UTC on 17-February-2018

Information in this article are going to go outdated quickly.

As of the writing of this article total of 1593 earthquakes have happened in last 48 hours in Tjörnes Fracture Zone (TFZ). The reason for this earthquake swarm remains unclear at the moment. It is not clear if this is just tectonic earthquakes or have their origins in magma movements.


The earthquake swarm in Tjörnes Fracture Zone. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.


This earthquake swarm is dense. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Largest earthquake since midnight has the magnitude of 3,7 so far. In the last 48 hours total of 27 earthquakes larger than magnitude 3,0 have happened east of Grímsey island. This earthquake swarm is happening in a volcano named Nafir (no GVP profile) and that volcano doesn’t have any documented eruption during the last 12.000 years that I know of (I might be wrong). It remains unclear at the moment if an eruption is going to happen at this location. At the moment there are no clear signs of magma movement, but ISOR (Icelandic article here) suggests that current earthquake swarm might be connected to magma movement in the area. If that is going to result in a eruption remains unclear in ISOR view.

I’ll update this article as needed today.

Earthquake activity in Öræfajökull volcano

Today (09-Februar-2018) at 05:07 UTC a magnitude 3,6 earthquake took place in Öræfajökull volcano. This is now the strongest earthquake in Öræfajökull volcano since this earthquake activity started in 2017. With earlier earthquake only having the magnitude of 3,4 (article here) on 3-October-2017. This increase in magnitude is something to worry about.


The earthquake activity in Öræfajökull volcano (green star). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Only one earthquake has happened after this earthquake so far and that only had the magnitude of 1,7. I am expecting more earthquake activity in next few hours and days.

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Earthquake activity in Öræfajökull and Esjufjöll volcanoes

I am writing about both Öræfajökull and Esjufjöll volcanoes in this article.

Öræfajökull volcano

Earthquake activity continues in Öræfajökull volcano. As before most earthquakes are smaller than magnitude 1,0. Earthquake activity is mostly in the caldera but reaches a little outside of it at times. Míla webcamera for Öræfajökull volcano can be found here.

Esjufjöll volcano

After a long time with no earthquake activity. Earthquake activity suddenly appeared in Esjufjöll volcano. As with Öræfajökull volcano, earthquakes do not happen in Esjufjöll volcano unless it is connected to magma movements. I don’t know anything useful about Esjufjöll since no eruptions are documented in the last 12.000 years. There might have been a small eruption in the year 1927 that lasted for 4 days, but I don’t have any useful information about that eruption if it happened. If an eruption does happen in Esjufjöll a glacier flood would go down to Jökulsárlón (this webcamera here).


Earthquake activity in Öræfajökull and Esjufjöll volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

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Earthquake activity in Öræfajökull volcano

Earthquake activity continues in Öræfajökull volcano and it remains at yellow status [website can be found here]. Like before the earthquake activity is small in magnitude.


The earthquake activity in Öræfajökull volcano (orange dots to the south). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

There is now a pattern to this earthquake activity. Just and while it happens there are changes in the tremor plot on SIL stations around Öræfajökull volcano. It is possible that this is earthquake activity showing it self on the SIL stations. Other explanations are also possible.


The two spikes after 01/02 line showed up during a earthquake activity in Öræfajökull volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

I don’t know for sure at the moment why this happens or why it shows up as it currently does.

Bad weather is currently blocking detection of small earthquakes in Iceland. A storm is going to pass over Iceland today and a second storm is going to pass over Iceland on Sunday.

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Moving to Iceland

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Strong earthquake swarm in Bárðarbunga volcano

Yesterday (30-January-2018) Bárðarbunga volcano had strongest earthquake since 27-October-2017. That earthquake had the magnitude of Mw4,9 (at 19:24 UTC). Two earlier earthquakes had happened but they had smaller magnitude of 3,7 (at 17:47 UTC) and magnitude 3,8 (at 18:00 UTC).


The earthquake swarm in Bárðarbunga volcano (green stars). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Earthquake activity seems to have stopped with last earthquake happening at 21:29 UTC. There is no change in harmonic tremor from Bárðarbunga volcano and that means no eruption. The north-east part of the Bárðarbunga volcano seems to be getting unstable with each earthquake swarm that happens. Magnitude of earthquakes happening has also increased but it is now longer between earthquake swarm. The time between earthquake swarms now can go up to several weeks. Soon after this earthquake activity started in September-2015 this type of activity happened weekly.

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Dyke intrusion south-east of Bárðarbunga volcano

On Sunday (21-January-2018) a dyke intrusion took place south-east of Bárðarbunga volcano. The area is question is slightly outside of Bárðarbunga volcano fissure swarm but seems to be connected to the main volcano.


The earthquakes south-east of Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

Largest earthquake only had magnitude 1,2 and the shallowest depth was only 13,9 km with a magnitude 0,8 earthquake. The risk of an eruption in this area is increasing, but it is not possible to know when a eruption might happen. This area has been active for some time now with regular dyke intrusions at the same location.

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Earthquake swarm in Tungnafellsjökull volcano

In the last 24 hours (20-January-2018) an earthquake swarm started in Tungnafellsjökull volcano. All earthquakes that have happened so far are small and no earthquakes have so far reached magnitude 1,0.


The earthquakes in Tungnafellsjökull volcano (red dots), north of Bárðarbunga volcano. Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

At the moment there is nothing suggesting that magma is reaching the surface of this volcano. At the moment the earthquakes appear to be tectonic in nature. If they are due to influence of Bárðarbunga volcano (crustal stress changes) is unclear at the moment. Tungnafellsjökull volcano has not erupted in last 12.000 years and little data is on eruptions that are older than 12.000 years.

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Article updated at 20:00 UTC. Added text that was forgotten.

Magnitude 3,1 earthquake in Öræfajökull volcano

A magnitude 3,1 earthquake took place on 18-January-2018 at 02:14 UTC in Öræfajökull volcano. This earthquake was followed by one magnitude 2,0 earthquake and one magnitude 1,8 earthquake. All other earthquakes where smaller in magnitude.


Earthquake activity in Öræfajökull volcano (green star). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This earthquake activity was followed by an increase in higher frequency noise on the tremor plots around Öræfajökull volcano. This possibly was the swarm of small earthquakes detected in Öræfajökull volcano at the same time. I am not sure at this moment, but I do hope it gets clearer what is happening as more data is collected with increasing activity.


The change in the tremor plot at Fagurhólsmýri SIL station. The change is at the blue line close the end (spikes). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

At the moment everything is quiet in Öræfajökull volcano.

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Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano (Week 03-2018)

Today (15-January-2018) a earthquake swarm activity took place in Bárðarbunga volcano. This is a regular event at this point and has been for some time now. Today’s earthquakes had the magnitude of 3,5 (09:39 UTC) and 3,3 (09:47 UTC). The location suggests that stronger earthquakes are going to happen soon in Bárðarbunga volcano in the north-east part of the caldera of Bárðarbunga volcano.


Earthquake activity in Bárðarbunga volcano (green stars). Copyright of this image belongs to Icelandic Met Office.

This earthquake activity shows that Bárðarbunga volcano continues to inflate after the end of the eruption in Holuhrauni in Februar-2015. Currently it is clear that Bárðarbunga volcano is preparing for an eruption. When next eruption might happen is impossible to know.

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